dec-investment2013年10月13日余潤共83圖片每頁打四個(gè)拍攝

SS14– ysisandAssigned49．OverviewofEquitySecuritiesIntroductiontoIndustry 51．EquityValuation:ConceptsandBasic

AssignedReading49．OverviewofEquity LOS49.a:DescribecharacteristicsoftypesofequityEquitysecuritiesareanimportantassetbecauseoftheiruniquereturnandriskcharacteristicsinglobalfinancialEquitieshaveshownhigherreturnsthanbondsandbutalsohigher

Commonshareholdershavearesidualclaimonfirmassetsand ernthecorporationthroughvotingrights.Statutoryvotingvs.cumulativevotingCallablecommonsharesallowthefirmtherightrepurchasethesharesataprespecified Putablecommonsharesgivetheshareholdertherighttosellthesharesbacktothefirmatapre-specifiedprice. 49.49.49.Preferredstocktypicallydoesnotmature,doesnothavevotingrights,andhasdividendsthatarefixedinamountbutarenotacontractualobligationofthefirm.Cumulativepreferredsharesrequireanydividendsthatweremissedinthepast(dividendsinarrears)tobepaidbeforecommonshareholdersreceiveanydividends.Non-cumulativepreferencesharesParticipatingpreferredsharesreceiveextradividendsiffirmprofitsexceedaprespecifiedlevelandavaluegreaterthantheparvalueifthefirmisliquidated.Non-participatingpreferenceshares5

Convertiblepreferredstockcanbeconvertedtocommonstockatapre-specifiedconversionratio.當(dāng)公 6 LOS49.b:Describedifferencesinvotingrightsandotherownershipcharacteristicsamongdifferentequityclasses.公司可 不同等級(jí)的普通股高等級(jí)的普通股可以具 的投票權(quán)，或在公司算時(shí)優(yōu)先行使索

LOS49.c:DistinguishbetweenpublicandprivateequityComparedtopublicequity,privateequityhasfollowing1.Less2.Sharepriceisnegotiated3.Morelimitedfirmfinancialdisclosure4.Lowerreporting5.Potentiallyweaker 6.Greaterabilitytofocusonlong-termprospectsbecausethereisnopublicpressureforshort-termresults. ?7.Potentiallygreaterreturn PublicandprivateequityVenturestart-zip,earlystage,ormezzanineLeveragedbuyoutor 私募股權(quán)投資在國內(nèi)創(chuàng)業(yè)板的表

LOS49.d:Describemethodsforinvestinginnon-domesticequityDirectSomeobstaclestodirectforeigninvestmentareTheinvestmentandreturnaredenominatedinaforeignTheforeignstockexchangemaybeThereportingrequirementsofforeignstockexchangesmaybelessstrict,impeding Investorsmustbefamiliarwiththeregulationsproceduresofeachmarketinwhichthey Investinnon-domesticequityDepositoryreceiptssponsored unsponsoredGlobaldepositoryreceipts(GDRs):issuedoutsideU.S.andtheissuer'shomeU.S.dollarsandtradeintheUnited

Investinnon-domesticequity Investinnon-domesticequityGlobalregisteredshares(GRS)aretradedincurrenciesonstockexchangesaroundtheAbasketoflisteddepositoryreceipts(BLDR)isanexchange-tradedfund(ETF)thatisacollectionofDRs.ETFsharestradeinmarketsjustlikecommonstocks.

LOS49.e:Comparetheriskandreturncharacteristicsoftypesofequitysecurities.Thereturnsonequityinvestmentsconsistofpricechanges,dividendpayments,and,inthecaseofequitiesdenominatedinaforeigncurrency,gainsorlossesfromchangesinexchangerates. Theriskofequitysecuritiesismostcommonlymeasuredasthestandarddeviationofreturns. Preferredstockislessriskythancommonstockbecausepreferredstockpaysaknown,fixeddividendtoinvestors;preferredstockholdersmustreceivedividendsbeforecommonstockdividendscanbepaid;andpreferredstockholdershaveaclaimequaltoparvalueifthefirmisliquidated.PutablesharesaretheleastriskyandcallablesharesaretheCumulativepreferredsharesarelessriskythannon-cumulativepreferredshares,asanydividendsmissedmustbepaidbeforeacommonstockdividendcanbepaid.

LOS49.f:Ex intheroleofequitysecuritiesinthefinancingofa'sassets.Equitysecuritiesprovidefundstothefirmtobuyproductiveassets,tobuyothercompanies,ortooffertoemployeesascompensation.Equitysecuritiesprovideliquiditythatmaybeimportantwhenthefirmmustraiseadditionalfunds.。 LOS49.g:Distinguishbetweenthemarketvalueandbookvalueofequitysecurities.Thebookvalueofequityisthedifferencebetweenthefinancialstatementvalueofthefirm'sassetsandliabilities.Positiveretainedearningsincreasethebookvalueofequity.Bookvaluesreflectthefirm'spastoperatingandfinancingchoices.ThemarketvalueofequityisthesharepricetimesnumberofsharesMarketvaluereflectsinvestors'expectationsaboutthetiming,amount,andriskofthefirm'sfuturecashflows

LOS49.h:Comparea 'scostofequity,itsaccountingreturnonequity,andinvestors'requiredratesofreturn.凈資產(chǎn)收益率等于歸屬于普通股東的凈利潤除以期內(nèi)股權(quán)的平均帳面價(jià)值 ROECostofEquity&RequiredHigherROEisgenerallyviewedasapositiveforafirm,butthereasonforanincreaseshouldbeexamined.Thefirm'scostofequityistheexpectedequilibriumtotalreturn(includingdividends)onitssharesinthemarket.Afirm’costofequitycanbeinterpretedastheminimumrateofreturnrequiredbyinvestor(intheaggregate)tocompensatethemfortheriskofthefirm’sequityshares.

ROECostofequity&RequiredInvestors'requiredratesofreturnarereflectedinmarketpricesofthefirm‘s ROECostofequity&Required

AssignedReading50．IntroductiontoIndustry LOS50.a:Ex intheusesofindustry ysisandtherelationof ysisto ysisisnecessaryforunderstanding'sbusinessenvironmentbeforeengaginginysisofthe Theindustryenvironmentcanprovideinformationaboutthefirm'spotentialgrowth,competition,risks,appropriatedebtlevels,andcreditrisk.Industryvaluationcanbeusedinanactivemanagementstrategytodeterminewhichindustriestooverweightorunderweightinaportfolio.Industryrepresentationisoftenasignificantcomponentinaperformanceattributionysisofaportfolio'sretur2n5.

LOS50.b:Comparemethodsbywhichcompaniescanbegrouped,currentindustryclassificationsystems,andclassifya givenadescriptionofitsactivitiesandtheclassificationsystem.按以下特質(zhì)對(duì)行業(yè)進(jìn)PrincipalbusinessBusinesscyclesensitivity:cyclicalandnon-cyclicalStatisticalmethods的四個(gè)缺歷史上業(yè)績表現(xiàn)關(guān)聯(lián)度高的公司未必在未來也保持高的關(guān)采用不同時(shí)間段或不同地域的歷史數(shù)據(jù)可能影響分類的結(jié)分類結(jié)果有時(shí)難以解釋統(tǒng)計(jì)方法本身具有缺陷性，偶然性會(huì)影響 IndustryclassificationIndustryclassificationsystemsfromcommercialprovidersincludetheGlobalIndustryClassificationStandard(Standard&Poor'sandMSCIBarra),RussellGlobalSectors,andtheIndustryClassification ark(DowJonesandIndustryclassificationsystemsdevelopedby agenciesincludetheInternationalStandardIndustrialClassification(ISIC),theNorthAmericanIndustryClassificationSystem(NAICS),andsystemsdesignedtheEuropeanUnionandAustraliaandNew

LOS50.c:Exinthefactorsthataffectthesensitivityoftothebusinesscycleandtheusesandlimitationofindustryanddescriptorssuchas“growth”,“defensive”,“cyclical”Cyclicalfirmhasearningsthatarehighlydependentonthebusinesscycle.Noncyclicalfirmhasearningsthatarelessdependentof1.defensive(demandfortheproducttendsnottofluctuatewiththebusiness2.growth(demandissostrongthatitislargelyunaffectedbythebusinesscycle).Limitationsofdescriptorssuchasgrowth,defensive,andincludethefactscyclicalindustriesoftenincludegrowthevennon-cyclicalindustriescanbeaffectedbysevererecessions;3.defensiveindustriesarenotalwayssafeinvestments;businesscycletimingdiffersacrosscountriesandregions;and classificationoffirmsissomewhat LOS50.d:Ex intherelationof"peergroup,"asusedinequityvaluation,toa 'sindustryclassification. Peergroupshouldconsistofcompanieswithsimilarbusinessactivities,demanddrivers,coststructuredrivers,andavailabilityofcapital.通過行

LOS50.e:Describetheelementsthatneedtobecoveredinathoroughindustry Athorough ysisEvaluatetherelationshipsbetweenmacroeconomicvariablesandindustrytrends.EstimateindustryvariablesusingdifferentandCheckestimatesagainstthosefrom ComparethevaluationfordifferentComparethevaluationforindustriesacrosstimedetermineriskandrotation Elementsinathorough yzeindustryprospectsbasedonstrategicClassifyindustriesbytheirlife-cyclePositiontheindustryontheexperienceConsiderdemographic, social,andtechnologicalExamine sthatdetermineindustry

LOS50.f:Describetheprinciplesof ysisofanPorter'sfive sthatdetermineindustrycompetition1.Rivalryamongexisting2.Threatofnew3.Threatofsubstitute4.Bargainingpowerof5.Bargainingpower LOS50.g:Ex intheeffectsofbarrierstoentry,industryconcentration,industrycapacity,andmarketsharestabilityonpricingpowerandreturnoncapital.Highbarrierstoentrypreventnewcompetitorsfromtakingawaymarketshare,buttheydonotguaranteepricingpower,especiallyiftheproductsareundifferentiated.Capacityisfixedintheshortrunandvariableinthelongrun.UndercapacitytypicallyresultsinpricingMarketshare

IndustryhighindustryconcentrationmaynotguaranteeWhilemarketfragmentationusuallyresultsinstrongcompetition,highindustryconcentrationmaynotguaranteepricingpower.Ifindustryproductsareundifferentiated,willswitchtothecheapestOvercapacitymayresultinprice LOS50.h:Describeproductandindustrylifecyclemodels,classifyindustryastolifecyclephase(e.g.,embryonic,growth,shakeout,maturity,anddecline)basedonadescriptionofit,anddescribethelimitationsofthelife-cycleconceptinforecastingindustryperformance.Phasesoftheindustrylife-cyclemodelaretheembryonic,growth,shakeout,maturity,anddeclinestages.Embryonicstage:Slowgrowth;highprices;largeinvestmentrequired;highriskoffailure.Growthstage:Rapidgrowth;littlecompetition;fallingprices;increasingprofitability.Shakeoutstage:Slowinggrowth;intensecompetition;industryovercapacity;decliningprofitability;costcutting;increasedfailures.Maturestage:Slowgrowth;consolidation;highbarrierstoentry;stablepricing;superiorfirmsgainmarketshare.Declinestage:Negativegrowth;decliningprices;

Industrylifecycle IndustrylifecycleAlimitationoflife-cycle ysisisthatlife-cyclestagesmaynotbeaslongorshortasanticipatedormightbeskippedaltogetherduetotechnological ernmentregulation,societalchange,orFirmsinthesamelifecyclestagewillexperiencedissimilargrowthandprofitsduetotheircompetitive

LOS50.j:Describedemographic, ernmental,socialandtechnologicalinfluencesonindustrygrowth,profitabilityandrisk.Demographicinfluencesonindustriesincludethesizeagedistributionoftheernmentfactorsincludetaxrates,regulations,empowermentofself-regulatoryorganizations,ernmentpurchasesofgoodsandSocialinfluencesrelatetohowpeoplein ctandconducttheirlives.Technologycandramaticallychangeanindustrytheintroductionofneworimproved LOS50.i:Comparecharacteristicsofrepresentativeindustriesfromthevariouseconomicsectors.majorbarrierstoindustryinfluenceofindustrycapacityonindustryLifedemographicernmentsocialtechnologicalwhethertheindustryisgrowth,defensive,or

LOS50.k:Describetheelementsthatshouldbecoveredina ysisshouldincludetheFirmoverview,includinginformationonoperations,ernance,andstrengthsandweaknesses.IndustryProductProductPricingFinancialratios,withcomparisonstootherfirmsandovertime.Projectedfinancialstatementsandfirm Elementsina Acostleadershipfirmseekstohavethelowestcostsofproductioninitsindustry,offerthelowestprices,andgenerateenoughvolumetomakeasuperiorreturn.Adifferentiatingfirm'sproductsandservicesshoulddistinctiveintermsoftype,quality,or

AssignedReadingEquityvaluation:conceptsandbasic LOS5l.a:Evaluatewhetherasecurity,givenitscurrentmarketpriceandavalueestimate,isovervalued,fairlyvalued,orundervaluedbythemarket.MarketpricevsintrinsicSeveralthingsto 23

LOS51.b:DescribemajorcategoriesofequityvaluationDiscountedcashflowPresentvalueofdividends---PresentvalueofoperatingcashPresentvalue cashflowtoMultiplierFirsttype:theratioofstockPrice/earningratio---Price/cashflowratio---Price/bookvalueratio---Price/salesratio---Secondtype:basedontheratioofenterprisevaluetoeitherEBITDAorAssetbased LOS51.c:Ex intherationaleforusingpresent-valueofcashHowmodelstovalueequityanddescribethedividenddiscountandAstock’svalueisthePVofthefutureexpectedcashflow.Dividenddiscountmodel-DDM:

Youholdthestockforoneyear,receiveD1andsellatP1One-yearholdingperiodDDM:P (1ke (1keP D D ... Dn(1ke (1ke) (1ke)ke=therequiredrateof

(1ke)

ValuationIdentifyallexpectedfuturecashEstimatetheequitydiscountrate:k=R+

-R KeyEstimateofthegrowthrateofthecashflow—Estimateofthediscountrate---Ifyouarebetteratestimatingtheseinputs,youwillbeasuperior Otherwise,justaGIGO:garbagein,garbageout!!!

Discounttheexpecteddividendandsellingpriceatrequired Astockpaida$1dividendlastyear.Youthinknextyear’sdividendwillbe5%higher,andthestockwillsellfor$13.45atyearend.Therisk-rateofinterestis6%,themarketreturnis12%,andthestock’sbetaisD1=D0(1+g)=$1(1+0.05)= k=R+β(R-R)= P

DDM—MultipleP D (1ke (1ke) (1ke)Usingthestockintheprecedingexample,wehadacurrentdividend$1,anexpectedgrowthrateof5%,andtheCAPM-determinedrequiredrateofreturnof13.2%,ifthestockwillsellfor$14.12intwoyears.D=D(1+g)=$1(1+0.05)=(1ke (1ke P=1.05/1.132+13.45/1.132=

D2=D0(1+g)2=$1(1+0.05)2=$1.1025P=1.05/1.132+1.1025/1,1322+14.12/1.1322=$12.81 FCFEFCFE=net e+depreciation-increaseinworkingcapital-fixedcapitalinvestment(FCInv)-debtprincipalrepayments+newdebtissuesFCFE=cashflowfromoperations-FCInv+

EstimatingtheRequiredReturnfor LOS51.d:Calculatetheintrinsicvalueofanon-callable,non-convertiblepreferredstock.

LOS51.e:CalculateandinterprettheintrinsicvalueofanequitysecuritybasedontheGordon(constant)growthdividenddiscountmodeloratwo-stagedividenddiscountmodel,asappropriate.TheinfiniteperiodDDMmodelassumesthatthegrowthrate(g)individendsisconstantgc.Theequationusingthisassumptionis:P 0 c 0 c 0 c 0 ...eeeeD(1g D(1gP 0 c 0 c 0 c 0 ...eeeeExample:Valuethepreferredstockof thatpaysa$5

(1k

(1k)

(1k)

(1k)dividend.Thefirm’sbondsarecurrentlyyielding8.5%andpreferredsharesarepricedtoyield50basispointsbelowthefirm’sbondyield.Step1:Determinethediscountrate.8.5%-0.5%=Step2:Valuethepreferredstock.D/kP=$5/0.08=

ThisequationsimplifiesPD0(1gc) keg kegThismodelisalsocalledconstantgrowthDDM,ortheGordonRearrangingtheterms

kD1 00 GordonGrowthAstockpaida$2dividendlastyear.Ifdividendsareexpecttogrowat5%forever.Therisk-rateofinterestis6%,themarketreturnis11%,andthestock’sbetais1.2.D1=D0(1+g)=$2(1+0.05)=ke=Rf+β(Rm-Rf)=0.06+1.2(0.11-0.06)=12%P=D1/(ke-gc)=2.1/(0.12-0.05)=$30

DDM—InfiniteperiodGordonGrowthP kegThecriticalrelationshipbetweenkandAsthedifferencebetweenkandgwiden,thevalueofthestockAsthedifferencenarrows,thevalueofthestockSmallchangesinthedifferencebetweenkandgcauselargechangeinthestock’svalue.TheassumptionoftheinfiniteperiodThestockpaysdividend,andtheygrowataconstantTheconstantgrowthrateg,isneverexpectedtoKmustbegreaterthang.ifnot,themathwillnotIfanyoneoftheseassumptionisnotmet,themodelbreaks Estimatethedividendgrowthrate-g=(Retentionrate,=(1-dividendpayoutROE=netprofitmargin*assetturnover*financialWhatisthefirm'sgrowthrategiventhatthefirmearns10%onequityof$100andpaysout40%ofearningsindividends?

Thefirmwillhavethreeyearsofextraordinarygrowthduringwhichnodividendwillbepaid.Beginninginyear4,earningswillstabilizeandgrowatasustainable5%,andthefirmwillpayout50%ofitsearningindividends.GivenE4=1.64andke=10%,calculatethevalueoftheD4=(dividendpayoutg=(1-dividendpayoutratio)(ROE)=(1-0.4)(0.1)=

P

3kegc 0.13IFnetprofitmarginincreases,thepriceofthestockwill

P 16.412.32e(1k (1e DDM—experiencetemporarysupernormalTwo-stagedividenddiscountFirststage:thefirm’sgrowthrateisg*fromyear1toyearnSecondstage:thefirm’sgrowthrateisgcfromyearn+1forever.P ...

DDM—experiencetemporarysupernormalConsiderastockwithdividendsthatareexpectedtogrowat20%peryearforfouryears,afterwhichtheyareexpecttoresumetheirnormalgrowthrateof5%peryearindefiniy.Thelastdividendpaidwas$1,andke=(1k (1k) (1k) (1k) Dn=lastdividendofthefirststage(supernormalgrowth

Firsttofindthevariablesyouneed:g*=20%,gc=5%,D0=1,Dn=4,ke=10%.D1=D0(1+g*)=1(1+0.2)=1.2,D2=D0(1+g*)2=1(1+0.2)2=1.44,Dn+1=thefirstdividendthatwillgrowatgc,

D3 D44P D4(1gc)2.08(10.05)4nP Dnn

keg

keg

0.1ke

D D D PP (1k (1k) (1k) (1k) (1k) 1 (10 (101) (101) (101) (101) 34 LOS51.f:IdentifycompaniesforwhichtheconstantgrowthormultistagedividenddiscountmodelisTheconstantgrowthmodelismostappropriateforfirmsthatpaydividendsthatgrowataconstantrate,suchasstableandmaturefirmsornoncyclicalfirmssuchasutilitiesandfoodproducersinmatureAtwo-stageDDMwouldbemostappropriateforafirmwithhighcurrentgrowththatwilldroptoastablerateinthefuture,anolderfirmthatisexperiencingatemporaryhighgrowthphase,oranolderfirmwithamarketsharethatisdecreasingbutexpectedtostabilize.Athree-stagemodelwouldbeappropriateforayoungfirmstillinahighgrowthphase.

LOS51.g:Ex intherationaleforusingpricemultiplestovalueequityanddistinguishbetweenmultiplesbasedoncomparablesversusmultiplesbasedonfundamentals.優(yōu)點(diǎn)：Pricemultiplesarewidelyusedbyystsareeasilycalculatedandreadilyavailableandcanbeusedintimeseriesandcross-sectionalcomparisons.缺點(diǎn)：Acritiqueofpricemultiplesisthattheyreflectonlythepastbecausehistoricaltrailingdataareoftenusedinthedenominator.pricemultiplesbasedonpricemultiplesbasedon LOS51.h:Calculateandinterpretthefollowingmultiples:pricetoearnings,pricetoanestimateofoperatingcashflow,pricetosales,andpricetobookvalue.PD1P0D1/

MultiplesbasedonExample:Afirmhasanexpecteddividendpayoutratioof60%,arequiredrateofreturnof11%,andanexpecteddividendgrowthrateof5%.Whatisthefirm’sexpectedP/Eratio?Ifyouexpectnextyear’searnings(E1)tobe0k k0P/EratiowillincreaseAhigherdividendpayoutratio---AhighergrowthAlowerrequiredrateofCanafirmincreaseitsstockpricebyincreasingitsdividendpayoutNOT

$3.50,whatisthevalueofthestockStep1:ExpectedP/Eratio:0.6/(0.11-0.05)=Step2:valueofthestock:(E1)(P/E1)=($3.50)(10)=KnowabouttheearningmultiplierapproachtoThemaindeterminantofthesizeoftheP/Eratioisthedifferencebetweenkandg.TherelevantP/Eratioyoushouldstudyistheexpectedorleadingrationotthehistorical(P0/E0)TheP/EratioisjustarestatementoftheDDM.SoanythingthatstockpricesthroughtheDDMwillalsohavethesameeffectontheP/E MultiplesbasedonTheprice-earnings(P/E)ratioisafirm'sstock/dividedbyearningsperTheprice-sales(P/S)ratioisafirm'sstockdividedbysalesperTheprice-bookvalue(P/B)ratioisafirm'sstockpricedividedbybookvaluepershare.Theprice-cashflow(P/CF)ratioisafirm'sstockdividedbycashflowperCashflowmaybedefinedasoperatingcashfloworcashflow. Multiplesbasedon LOS51.i:Ex intheuseofenterprisevaluemultiplesinequityvaluationanddemonstratetheuseofenterprisevaluemultiplestoestimateequityvalue.Enterprisevalue(EV)measurestotal EV=marketvalueofcommonstock+marketvalueofdebt-cashandshort-terminvestmentsEBITDAisfrequentlyusedasthedenominatorinEVmultiplesbecauseEVrepresentstotal andEBITDArepresentsearningsavailabletoall

EnterprisevalueEnterprisevalue(EV)measurestotal EV=marketvalueofcommonstock+marketvalueofdebt-cashandshort-terminvestmentsEBITDAisfrequentlyusedasthedenominatorinEVmultiplesbecauseEVrepresentstotal andEBITDArepresentsearningsavailabletoall EnterprisevalueLOS51.j:Ex inasset-basedvaluationmodelsanddemonstratetheuseofasset-basedmodelstocalculateequityAsset-basedmodelsvalueequityasthemarketorvalueofassetsminusThesemodel