工程項目管理英文課件：class9-pricing

PricingandEstimating1ASSIGNMENTSReadChapterXV–KerznerProjectManagementProblems:15-15,17,20,24,292PricingandEstimatingPricingandCostEstimatingshouldbeadisciplinedprocess.Adisciplinedprocessresultsinwelldocumentedassumptionsavailableatthetime.Thedocumentationisvaluableasalearningtoolaswellasvarianceanalysis3PRICINGPRICEISDETERMINEDBYTHEMARKET.Itshouldnotbedeterminedbyaddingupthecostsandaddingadesiredprofit.Yourobjectiveistoselectapricethatmaximizestheprofit.Pricingstrategiescanbeverycomplex.4GlobalPricingStrategiesProjectAcquisitionTypesTypeI–One-of-a-kindwithnofollow-onpotentialTypeII–Opportunityasanentrypointwiththepossibilityoffollow-onbusiness5GlobalPricingStrategiesStrategiesBothtypesrequireadetailedcostanalysisandcommitmentsfromallfunctionalareasTheprimarydifferenceisthefinalpricefortypeIprojectsreflectscostplusdesiredmarginWhiletypeIIpricesmayreflectalowerorevennegativemargintowinfuturebusiness.6PricingPricingisimpactedbymanyelementsinthebusiness,includingBrandimageCompetitorstrategiesNeedtofullyutilizeassetsBusinessstrategy/objectivesProductorservicecontentGenerally,thepriceisdevelopedbytheMarketing,FinanceandProjectTeam7CostEstimating8INITIALIZINGPLANNINGPROJECTAPPROVALORDEROFMAGNITUDEAPPROXIMATEESTIMATEDEFINITIVEESTIMATEINFORMATIONCostEstimateTypesOrderofMagnitude–accuracyof+/-35%andisbasedonpastexperienceorparametricdataApproximateEstimate–accuracyof+/-15%andisbasedonproratingpastprojectsDefinitiveEstimate–accuracyof+/-5%andisbasedonwell-definedengineeringdataandvendorquotes9In-HouseEstimatesEstimatesmayvaryasyouproceedthroughthevariousstagesofaproject.Forexample,aprojectmaystartwithanorder-of-magnitudeestimateandthenberefinedtoadefinitiveestimatewhensignificantresources,moneyandpeople,arecommitted.10LaborRequirementsSubmittedbyfunctionalmanagersLaborratesreflectactualsadjustedtoreflectanticipatedlevelsduringthelifeoftheproject.TheProjectManagermustoftennegotiatewiththefunctionalmanagerstoarriveatthefinallaborhoursrequired.11OverheadCostsThecompaniestotalcostismadeupofmorethandirectlabor.Therearemanyoverheadcostswhichareallocatedbasedonfinancialpoliciesinthecompany.AsuccessfulProjectManagerunderstandsthesepoliciesandmaybeabletomodifyhisprojectsperformancebymakingrevisionstoassumptionswhichdrivetheallocatedcosts.Forexample,atFord,thefirstprojectmustfund100%ofacomponentinvestment.Obviously,youwantyourprojecttobesecond.12Material/SupportCostsMaterialcostsreflectadetailedbill-of-materialwhichisbasedontheWBSComponentsmaybenewversuscarryover,importedversusdomestic,makeversusbuyFornewcomponents,vendorsneedtobeselectedtosubmitbids.VendorselectionisajointPurchasing,EngineeringandProjectManagementresponsibility13TypicalPricing/CostReportsAdetailedcostbreakdownbyWBSAtotalprogrammanpowercurveforeachdepartmentAmonthlyequivalentmanpowercostsummaryAyearlycostdistributiontable14TypicalPricing/CostReportsAfunctionalcostandhoursummaryAmonthlylaborhouranddollarexpenditureforecastArawmaterialandexpenditureforecastTotalprogramterminationliabilitypermonth15Back-UpDataAsProgramManager,youneedtorequestsufficientbackupdatatopermityouto:Validatetheestimateisconsistentwithprojectassumptions;Identifyopportunitiestoreducecost;andprovidecredibleanswerstothecustomeronthepricerationaleThedatamustbeconsistentand“box”withtheprice.16Back-UpDataAsageneralrule,whetherprovidinginformationtomanagementorthecustomer,Donotsharemoredetailthanisnecessarytoanswerthequestion.”Somepeopleliketoshareeverythingtheyknowandthiscanleadtomanyadditionalunnecessaryquestions17LowBidderIngeneral,itisdesirabletobethelowbidder.However,anunrealisticlowbidcandestroyyourcredibilityandbedetrimentaltothefinancialhealthofthecompany.Kerznersays,acompliant,well-documented,technical,andmanagementproposalbasedonpastexperiencewithrealisticcostfigurescanoftenwinoverthelowestbidder.18RisksandOpportunitiesAllprojectswillencounterRisksandOpportunities.TheProjectManager’staskistominimizeoreliminatetherisksandbooktheopportunities.ItisessentialtomaintainanongoingRiskandOpportunitylistThelistscanincludecost,spending,profits,quality,weightandtime19RISKANDOPPORTUNITYLISTListisdividedintotwosections,RisksandOpportunities.Yourobjectiveistohavetheopportunitiesequalorexceedtherisks.EachRiskandOpportunitywillinclude:QuantifiedimpactProbabilityExpectedValueResolutionDateResponsibility20RisksandOpportunitiesItisimportanttostresstotheteamtoidentifyallrisksandopportunitiesassoonastheyareknownsoyoumaybeginmanagingthem.OneruleisnoactionwillbebookedunlessithasbeenontheRiskandOpportunitylist.EachR&Oshouldhaveanassociatedprobabilityofhappening2110%SolutionKerznerdiscusseswhycuttingbudgetsanarbitrary10%neverworks.Ihaveaslightlydifferenttake.Managementunderstandwhatthisdirectionmeanstotheorganization.Frankly,theydonotwanttohearallthereasonsitwillnotwork.Whatheorshewantstohearisherearetheimplicationsandthesearethestepswecantaketominimizeimpact.22CapitalBudgetingPaybackPeriodDiscountedCashFlowNet