金屬數(shù)據(jù)周報(bào)（2023年第六周） 20230128 -浙商證券

告數(shù)據(jù)周報(bào) (2023年第六周)：看好023年1月28日分分析師證書(shū)編號(hào)施毅shiyi123052210000201最新金屬周度價(jià)格與Q4均價(jià)變化22Q與Q4均價(jià)變化22Q4均價(jià)-0.94%-3.64%-6.37%40%-0.46%.55.02 添加標(biāo)題2.5 添加標(biāo)題2.5 72數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源：Wind，浙商證券研究所(注：國(guó)內(nèi)價(jià)格數(shù)據(jù)截止至2023年1月20日)2400,000350,000300,000250,000200,00050,000002最新金屬庫(kù)存400,000350,000300,000250,000200,00050,0000圖：LME+COMEX銅庫(kù)存(噸)700,000600,000500,000400,000300,000200,0000圖：LME鋅庫(kù)存(噸)400,000350,000300,000250,000200,00050,0000圖：LME+COMEX鋁庫(kù)存(噸)2022-08-14004,000,0000圖：LME鎳庫(kù)存(噸)00400,000000,00003流入實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)，銅價(jià)增速迎來(lái)上升我們以美國(guó)M2增長(zhǎng)率和增長(zhǎng)率的差來(lái)代表未進(jìn)入實(shí)體的資金量多少，將其與LME銅期價(jià)增速我們發(fā)現(xiàn)資金流向?qū)τ阢~價(jià)有前瞻性指引作用。00%價(jià)價(jià)-0100-0102-01-0100-0102-0104-0106-0108-0110-0112-0114-0116-0118-0120-0122-0140%455同比有所回升下半銅礦及精煉銅月量有所回升：202211月，全球銅礦/精煉銅量分別為1877/2212千噸，分別+4%/+7%；ICSG1-11月，銅礦/精煉銅量分別1986.4/2348.3萬(wàn)噸，分別+3.2%/+3.4%。全球銅礦產(chǎn)量(千噸)同比%%%%4%%2%%全球精煉銅產(chǎn)量(千噸)同比225022002150210020502000%%%%4%%2%%-2%-3%6610年期美國(guó)國(guó)債利率-2年期美國(guó)國(guó)債利率%3%3%2%2%1%1%0%00000利差倫敦現(xiàn)貨黃金:以美元計(jì)價(jià)(美元/盎司；右)利2022年上半年以來(lái)，國(guó)內(nèi)廠商開(kāi)始集中復(fù)產(chǎn)與投建，供給釋放疊加流動(dòng)性收緊致使電解鋁行業(yè)盈利水平再度大幅回落，噸鋁價(jià)格由3月23860元高位逐步弱的消費(fèi)預(yù)期限制了反彈空間，短期來(lái)看，700030000中國(guó)電解鋁成本模型：利潤(rùn)(元/噸)中國(guó)電解鋁成本模型：總成本(元/噸)SMMA00鋁-平均價(jià)(元/噸)700030000600025000500040002000030002000120001000100000-10005000-20000-3000020202020-01-022020-05-022020-09-022021-01-022021-05-022021-09-022022-01-022022-05-022022-09-028數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源：SMM，浙商證券研究所利700060005000400030002000100002020-01-022020-04-022020-07-022020-10-022021-01-022021-04-022021-07-022021-10-022022-01-022022-04-022022-07-022022-10-02長(zhǎng)流程螺紋鋼利潤(rùn)(元/噸)華東調(diào)坯螺紋鋼成本(元/噸)螺紋杭州(沙鋼)-17:00-平均價(jià)(元/噸)1400120010008006004002000-200-400-600-800908鋰上中下游最新月度排產(chǎn)量為25,210噸，碳酸鋰進(jìn)口量為12,412噸，鋰鹽量合計(jì)71,752噸，正極材料環(huán)節(jié)：11月三元材料量為66,294噸，磷酸鐵鋰量為119,698噸，對(duì)應(yīng)碳酸鋰需求量為56,442噸，增87%。鈷酸鋰量為7184噸，錳酸鋰量為8,567噸，對(duì)應(yīng)碳酸鋰需求量為58,830噸。疊加其他環(huán)節(jié)，國(guó)內(nèi)碳酸鋰需求66,820噸?？鄢妓岵牧蟽舫隹谒鶎?duì)應(yīng)鋰鹽，電池環(huán)節(jié)碳酸鋰留存量為1,635噸。GWhGWh為22,660噸，增58%?？鄢?、磷酸鐵鋰電池出口，及儲(chǔ)能電池所消耗鋰鹽，電池環(huán)節(jié)碳酸鋰留存量為-2,047噸根據(jù)我們?nèi)缟蠝y(cè)算，11月國(guó)內(nèi)全鏈碳酸鋰庫(kù)存量減少9,336噸，對(duì)應(yīng)庫(kù)存月數(shù)下降至3.0月。新月度排產(chǎn)項(xiàng)目20212022/12022/22022/32022/42022/52022/62022/72022/82022/92022/102022/11鋰鹽量合計(jì)噸462,76741,81034,87451,49547,44055,65679,30457,55056,78667,04766,17371,752三元材料量噸393,00046,26243,41249,93845,78446,43352,72754,82558,59867,39270,18666,294磷酸鐵鋰量噸410,00062,02053,33750,71446,83757,80672,80694,69490,050112,060123,317119,698鈷酸鋰量噸86,0007,5276,6246,9595,6735,8885,4905,5825,6637,0057,3277,184錳酸鋰量噸87,4005,6344,1135,7423,2683,5103,9905,4595,7166,0056,1868,567正極材料LCE需求合計(jì)噸284,94835,77632,06834,40431,13934,20940,55447,19547,60656,78360,77758,830六氟磷酸鋰量噸54,0296,2806,3816,5776,6027,1267,9889,1069,61310,99412,23913,320電池材料用量LCE需求噸298,76737,38233,70036,08632,82836,03242,59849,52450,06459,59563,90862,237其他LCE需求噸50,0004,5834,5834,5834,5834,5834,5834,5834,5834,5834,5834,583國(guó)內(nèi)LCE需求合計(jì)噸348,76741,96638,28340,67037,41140,61547,18154,10854,64864,17968,49166,820碳酸鋰出口噸7,9436645688268191,1841,0117481,182907598598氫氧化鋰出口噸66,2646,4934,0935,7975,7117,48010,0179,7137,7987,7239,7429,742國(guó)內(nèi)鋰鹽環(huán)節(jié)LCE留存噸21,436-9,521-10,0852,0621,5304,23918,612-9,866-9,718-9,140-16,263-8,925三元電池量GWh93.910.911.615.610.316.318.316.619.324.324.224.2磷酸鐵鋰電池量GWh125.418.720.123.618.619.222.930.630.834.838.639.1其他電池LCE需求噸25,2482,3142,3142,3142,3142,3142,3142,3142,3142,3142,3142,314電池LCE需求合計(jì)噸175,60822,25423,65428,95421,71426,87430,69433,95436,23442,63444,83445,134三元材料凈出口噸7,836-1,118-1,968-202-1,301791-1,588917-2894,3114,2694,269國(guó)內(nèi)電池正極環(huán)節(jié)LCE留存噸49,9688,2753,658-1,3304,9971,0913,8165,2903,4393,0894,4501,635三元電池裝車(chē)量磷酸鐵鋰電池裝車(chē)量實(shí)際上車(chē)用鋰量噸三元電池出口量磷酸鐵鋰電池出口量?jī)?chǔ)能電池用量GWhGWhGWhGWhGWh74.379.8107,320217.38.911,18085.87.89,32088.213.214,48084.48.98,86088.310.212,760811.615.418,52089.814.316,4200.5 810.517.218,7200.8 811.220.421,2004.62.2 810.819.720,4604.310.3 811.023.122,6605.716.8 8國(guó)內(nèi)電池環(huán)節(jié)LCE留存噸55,9883,2196,8076,0375,4095,9803,0247,4847,0296,8115,261-2,047全鏈庫(kù)存變化噸127,3921,9733796,76911,93611,31125,4522,909750760-6,552-9,336對(duì)應(yīng)當(dāng)需求月份數(shù)月2.82.22.22.32.52.73.23.23.23.33.13.0數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源：SMM，動(dòng)力電池聯(lián)盟，中國(guó)海關(guān)，浙商證券研究所Feb-18Apr-18Jun-18Aug-18Feb-19Apr-19Jun-19Aug-19Feb-20Apr-20Jun-20Aug-20Oct-20Dec-20Feb-21Apr-21Jun-21Aug-21Oct-21Dec-21Feb-22Apr-22Jun-22Aug-22Oct-22Dec-2Feb-18Apr-18Jun-18Aug-18Feb-19Apr-19Jun-19Aug-19Feb-20Apr-20Jun-20Aug-20Oct-20Dec-20Feb-21Apr-21Jun-21Aug-21Oct-21Dec-21Feb-22Apr-22Jun-22Aug-22Oct-22Dec-22國(guó)內(nèi)月度光伏并網(wǎng)量(萬(wàn)千瓦)同比(%)2500500%-100%5026.57400%2000300%1500200%10005000%0029.6620.20.439.768.206.639.829.548.791月2月3月4月5月6月7月8月9月10月11月12月數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源：中電聯(lián)，浙商證券研究所新增裝機(jī)當(dāng)月值當(dāng)月同比新增裝機(jī)累計(jì)值累計(jì)同比2022月度公開(kāi)招標(biāo)量(GW)同比增速2022Q1-Q3.3522年光伏裝機(jī)增速突破80GW；2023年光伏裝機(jī)量同比增速有望接近100%。伏：全球裝機(jī)量預(yù)測(cè)2020A2021A2022E2023E2024E2025E全球光伏新增裝機(jī)145.0175.0237.4336.5427.6523.8YoY31%21%36%42%27%22%中國(guó)48同比增速(%)46%歐洲45同比增速(%)美國(guó)41同比增速(%)日本9789同比增速(%)印度4同比增速(%)其他國(guó)家4447同比增速(%)258258136924702581369247025813692001400%1200%1000%800%600%400%200%0%-200%注：2月為累計(jì)值風(fēng)電新增裝機(jī)當(dāng)月值(GW)當(dāng)月同比(右)50250%200%150%100%50%0%-50%-100%國(guó)內(nèi)季度公開(kāi)招標(biāo)量(GW)同比增速(右)數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源：中電聯(lián)月度電力工業(yè)運(yùn)行簡(jiǎn)況、國(guó)家能源局，浙商證券研究所新增裝機(jī)當(dāng)月值當(dāng)月同比新增裝機(jī)累計(jì)值累計(jì)同比22-1022-1122-12季度公開(kāi)招標(biāo)量同比增速Q(mào)QQQQ招標(biāo)量高增+明確政策規(guī)劃+疫情放開(kāi)，明年風(fēng)電裝機(jī)增速有望超40%風(fēng)電：全球裝機(jī)量預(yù)測(cè)2020A2021A2022E2023E2024E2025E全球風(fēng)電新增裝機(jī)959486107132158YoY57%-2%-8%24%23%20%陸風(fēng)新增裝機(jī)88727695112130YoY62%-18%5%24%19%16%中國(guó)42歐洲美洲非洲及中東地區(qū)121223其他亞太地區(qū)476689海風(fēng)新增裝機(jī)72110121927YoY10%208%-54%28%54%43%中國(guó)456歐洲334445美洲000123其他亞太地區(qū)011245數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源：全球風(fēng)能協(xié)會(huì)，浙商證券研究所cNov-22Oct-22Sep-22Aug-22Jul-22Jun-22May-22Apr-22Mar-22FebcNov-22Oct-22Sep-22Aug-22Jul-22Jun-22May-22Apr-22Mar-22Feb-22Jan-22Dec-21Nov-21Oct-21Sep-21Aug-21Jul-21Jun-21May-21Apr-21Mar-21Feb-21Jan-21Dec-20Nov-20Oct-20Sep-20Aug-20Jul-20Jun-20May-20Apr-20Mar-20Feb-20Jan-20中汽協(xié)：2022中國(guó)新能源汽車(chē)銷(xiāo)量688.7萬(wàn)輛，增長(zhǎng)93.4%，市場(chǎng)占有率達(dá)到25.6%，高于202112.1個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。000000Jan20全球新能源汽車(chē)月度銷(xiāo)量(輛)Jul全球新能源汽車(chē)月度銷(xiāo)量(輛)Jan21epJul20Jul22May22Mar2Jan22Nov21epep右，%)000Sep2Jul22May2Mar2Jan22Nov1Sep1Jul21May1Mar1Jan21Nov0Sep0Jul20May0Mar0Jan20%%歐洲新能源汽車(chē)月度銷(xiāo)量(輛)同比增長(zhǎng)(右，%)9000008000007000006000005000004000003000002000000中國(guó)新能源汽車(chē)月度銷(xiāo)量(輛)同比增長(zhǎng)(右，%)000%%%llnJul-22May-22Mar-22Jan-22美國(guó)新能源汽車(chē)月度銷(xiāo)量(輛)同比增長(zhǎng)(右，900%00%00%600%00%400%00%200%%新能源汽車(chē)：全球銷(xiāo)量預(yù)測(cè)22020A2021A2022E2023E2024E2025E全球新能源汽車(chē)銷(xiāo)量(萬(wàn)輛)3106701100152019382537Y中國(guó)新能源汽車(chē)銷(xiāo)量(萬(wàn)輛中國(guó)新能源汽車(chē)銷(xiāo)量(萬(wàn)輛)同比增速(%)歐歐洲新能源汽車(chē)銷(xiāo)量(萬(wàn)輛)478同比增速(%)42%美國(guó)新能源汽車(chē)銷(xiāo)量(萬(wàn)輛)美國(guó)新能源汽車(chē)銷(xiāo)量(萬(wàn)輛)同比增速(%)其他國(guó)家(萬(wàn)輛)244872121151198同比增速(%)資料來(lái)源：IEA,EVVloumes，中汽協(xié)，浙商證券研究所16儲(chǔ)能裝機(jī)情況根據(jù)GGII統(tǒng)計(jì)，國(guó)內(nèi)20221-12月鋰電儲(chǔ)能中標(biāo)釋放約38.4GWh。2022中國(guó)儲(chǔ)能鋰電池出170%。0035302520502009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021全球新型儲(chǔ)能市場(chǎng)累計(jì)容量(GWh)全球新型儲(chǔ)能市場(chǎng)新增容量(Gwh)%%%%%%0%年增長(zhǎng)率(%)同比增長(zhǎng)率(%)350%300%250%200%150%100%50%0%-50%2016201720182019202020212022Q3美國(guó)儲(chǔ)能累計(jì)裝機(jī)容量(GWh)Bloomberg，浙商證券研究所美國(guó)儲(chǔ)能新增裝機(jī)容量(GWh) 45405025205086420201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022中國(guó)新型儲(chǔ)能市場(chǎng)累計(jì)容量(GWh)中國(guó)新型儲(chǔ)能市場(chǎng)新增容量(GWh)中國(guó)新型儲(chǔ)能市場(chǎng)累計(jì)容量(GWh)20152016201720182019202020212022E歐洲儲(chǔ)能累計(jì)裝機(jī)容量(GWh)歐洲儲(chǔ)能新增裝機(jī)容量(GWh)800%700%600%500%400%300%200%0%%%能需求：電池出貨量預(yù)測(cè)2022020A2021A2022E2023E2024E2025E全球儲(chǔ)能新增需求(GWh)2865139189280378Y48%中國(guó)儲(chǔ)能新增需求(中國(guó)儲(chǔ)能新增需求(GWh)同比增速(%)48%歐歐洲儲(chǔ)能新增需求(GWh)6同比增速(%)41%美美國(guó)儲(chǔ)能新增需求(GWh)7同比增速(%)41%45%其其他國(guó)家儲(chǔ)能新增需求(GWh)874844%同44%資料來(lái)源：BNEF，Woodmac，CNESA，浙商證券研究所經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇力度不及預(yù)期下游需求不及預(yù)期測(cè)算偏差風(fēng)險(xiǎn)20責(zé)聲明資評(píng)級(jí)以報(bào)告日后的6個(gè)月內(nèi)，行業(yè)指數(shù)相對(duì)于滬深300指數(shù)的漲跌幅為標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，定義如下：1、看好：行業(yè)指數(shù)相對(duì)于滬深300指數(shù)表現(xiàn)＋10%以上；2、中性：行業(yè)指數(shù)相對(duì)于滬深300指數(shù)表現(xiàn)－10%~