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管理概論
Chapter4
FoundationofDecisionMaking1管理概論
Chapter4
FoundationofDLearningOutcomesDescribethestepsindecision-makingprocess.Identifytheassumptionsofrationaldecision-makingmodel.Identifythetwotypesofdecisionproblemsandthetwotypesofdecisionsthatareusedtosolvethem.Defineheuristicsandexplainhowtheyaffectthedecision-makingprocess.Describetheadvantagesandthedisadvantagesofgroupdecision.2LearningOutcomesDescribetheTheDecision-MakingProcessIdentificationofaproblemIdentificationofdecisioncriteriaAllocationofweightstocriteriaDevelopmentofalternativesAnalysisofalternativesSelectionofanalternativeImplementationofthealternativeEvaluationofdecisioneffectiveness3TheDecision-MakingProcessIdeStep1：IdentificationofaproblemAdiscrepancybetweenanexistinganddesiredstateofaffairs.IdentificationofaproblemIdentificationofdecisioncriteriaAllocationofweightstocriteriaDevelopmentofalternativesAnalysisofalternativesSelectionofanalternativeImplementationofthealternativeEvaluationofdecisioneffectiveness4Step1：IdentificationofaproStep2：IdentificationofdecisioncriteriaAmanagerhastoassesswhatfactorsarerelevantinhisdecision.IdentificationofaproblemIdentificationofdecisioncriteriaAllocationofweightstocriteriaDevelopmentofalternativesAnalysisofalternativesSelectionofanalternativeImplementationofthealternativeEvaluationofdecisioneffectiveness5Step2：IdentificationofdecisStep3：AllocationofweightstocriteriaItisnecessarytoallocateweightstotheitemslistedinstep2inordertogivethemtheirrelativepriorityinthedecision.IdentificationofaproblemIdentificationofdecisioncriteriaAllocationofweightstocriteriaDevelopmentofalternativesAnalysisofalternativesSelectionofanalternativeImplementationofthealternativeEvaluationofdecisioneffectiveness6Step3：AllocationofweightstStep4：DevelopmentofalternativesNoattemptismadeinthissteptoappraisethesealternatives,onlytolistthem.IdentificationofaproblemIdentificationofdecisioncriteriaAllocationofweightstocriteriaDevelopmentofalternativesAnalysisofalternativesSelectionofanalternativeImplementationofthealternativeEvaluationofdecisioneffectiveness7Step4：DevelopmentofalternatStep5：AnalysisofalternativesEachalternativeisevaluatedbyappraisingitagainstthecriteria.IdentificationofaproblemIdentificationofdecisioncriteriaAllocationofweightstocriteriaDevelopmentofalternativesAnalysisofalternativesSelectionofanalternativeImplementationofthealternativeEvaluationofdecisioneffectiveness8Step5：AnalysisofalternativeStep6：SelectionofanalternativeWemerelyhavetochoosethealternativethatgeneratedthehighestscoreinstep5.IdentificationofaproblemIdentificationofdecisioncriteriaAllocationofweightstocriteriaDevelopmentofalternativesAnalysisofalternativesSelectionofanalternativeImplementationofthealternativeEvaluationofdecisioneffectiveness9Step6：SelectionofanalternaStep7：ImplementationofthealternativeThisstepisconcernedwithputtingthedecisionintoaction.IdentificationofaproblemIdentificationofdecisioncriteriaAllocationofweightstocriteriaDevelopmentofalternativesAnalysisofalternativesSelectionofanalternativeImplementationofthealternativeEvaluationofdecisioneffectiveness10Step7：ImplementationoftheaStep8：EvaluationofdecisioneffectivenessThelaststepinthedecision-makingprocessappraisestheresultofdecisiontoseewhetherithascorrectedtheproblem.(Chapter13)IdentificationofaproblemIdentificationofdecisioncriteriaAllocationofweightstocriteriaDevelopmentofalternativesAnalysisofalternativesSelectionofanalternativeImplementationofthealternativeEvaluationofdecisioneffectiveness11Step8：EvaluationofdecisionMakingDecisions：TheRationalModelTheproblemisclearandunambiguous.Asinglewell-definedgoalistobeachieved.Allalternativesandconsequencesareknown.Preferencesareclear.Preferencesareconstantandstable.Notimeorcostconstraintsexist.Finalchoicewillmaximizeeconomicpayoff.12MakingDecisions：TheRationalModificationoftheRationalModel–BoundedRationalityWhatthemanagersdoisconstructsimplifiedmodelsthatextracttheessentialfeaturesfromproblemswithoutcapturingalloftheircomplexities.Adecisioninwhich“goodenough”solutionsareselected.13ModificationoftheRationalMCommonErrorsareCommittedintheDecision-makingProcessHeuristicsJudgmentshortcutsAvailabilityheuristicRepresentativeheuristicEscalationofcommitment14CommonErrorsareCommittedinHowDoProblemsDifferWell-structuredproblemsStraightforward,familiar,easilydefinedproblems.Ill-structuredproblemsNewproblemsinwhichinformationisambiguousorincomplete.15HowDoProblemsDifferWell-strHowDoDecisionsDifferProgrammeddecisionArepetitivedecisionthatcanbehandledbyaroutineapproach.ProcedureRulePolicyNonprogrammeddecisionSuchdecisionsareuniqueandnonrecurring.16HowDoDecisionsDifferProgramTypesofProblems,TypesofDecision,andLevelintheOrganizationIll-StructuredWell-StructuredTypeofproblemTopLowerLevelinorganizationProgrammeddecisionsNonprogrammeddecisions17TypesofProblems,TypesofDeDecisionMakingStylesAnalyticConceptualBehavioralDirectiveHighLowRationalIntuitiveWayofThinkingToleranceforAmbiguity18DecisionMakingStylesAnalytAdvantagesofGroupDecisionMakingprovidemorecompleteinformationbringadiversityofexperienceandperspectivesgeneratemorealternativesincreasesacceptanceofasolutionincreaseslegitimacy19AdvantagesofGroupDecisionMDisdvantagesofGroupDecisionMakingtime-consuminginefficientmembersofagroupareneverperfectlyequalpressurestoconform(groupthink)ambiguousresponsibility20DisdvantagesofGroupDecisionImproveGroupDecisionMakingBrainstormingAnidea-generatingprocessthatencouragesalternativeswhilewithholdingcriticism.NominalgrouptechniqueAdecision-makingtechniqueinwhichgroupmembersarephysicallypresentbutoperateindependently.ElectronicmeetingAtypeofnominalgrouptechniqueinwhichparticipantsarelinkedbycomputer.21ImproveGroupDecisionMakingThankyou!!!22Thankyou!!!22管理概論
Chapter4
FoundationofDecisionMaking23管理概論
Chapter4
FoundationofDLearningOutcomesDescribethestepsindecision-makingprocess.Identifytheassumptionsofrationaldecision-makingmodel.Identifythetwotypesofdecisionproblemsandthetwotypesofdecisionsthatareusedtosolvethem.Defineheuristicsandexplainhowtheyaffectthedecision-makingprocess.Describetheadvantagesandthedisadvantagesofgroupdecision.24LearningOutcomesDescribetheTheDecision-MakingProcessIdentificationofaproblemIdentificationofdecisioncriteriaAllocationofweightstocriteriaDevelopmentofalternativesAnalysisofalternativesSelectionofanalternativeImplementationofthealternativeEvaluationofdecisioneffectiveness25TheDecision-MakingProcessIdeStep1：IdentificationofaproblemAdiscrepancybetweenanexistinganddesiredstateofaffairs.IdentificationofaproblemIdentificationofdecisioncriteriaAllocationofweightstocriteriaDevelopmentofalternativesAnalysisofalternativesSelectionofanalternativeImplementationofthealternativeEvaluationofdecisioneffectiveness26Step1：IdentificationofaproStep2：IdentificationofdecisioncriteriaAmanagerhastoassesswhatfactorsarerelevantinhisdecision.IdentificationofaproblemIdentificationofdecisioncriteriaAllocationofweightstocriteriaDevelopmentofalternativesAnalysisofalternativesSelectionofanalternativeImplementationofthealternativeEvaluationofdecisioneffectiveness27Step2：IdentificationofdecisStep3：AllocationofweightstocriteriaItisnecessarytoallocateweightstotheitemslistedinstep2inordertogivethemtheirrelativepriorityinthedecision.IdentificationofaproblemIdentificationofdecisioncriteriaAllocationofweightstocriteriaDevelopmentofalternativesAnalysisofalternativesSelectionofanalternativeImplementationofthealternativeEvaluationofdecisioneffectiveness28Step3：AllocationofweightstStep4：DevelopmentofalternativesNoattemptismadeinthissteptoappraisethesealternatives,onlytolistthem.IdentificationofaproblemIdentificationofdecisioncriteriaAllocationofweightstocriteriaDevelopmentofalternativesAnalysisofalternativesSelectionofanalternativeImplementationofthealternativeEvaluationofdecisioneffectiveness29Step4：DevelopmentofalternatStep5：AnalysisofalternativesEachalternativeisevaluatedbyappraisingitagainstthecriteria.IdentificationofaproblemIdentificationofdecisioncriteriaAllocationofweightstocriteriaDevelopmentofalternativesAnalysisofalternativesSelectionofanalternativeImplementationofthealternativeEvaluationofdecisioneffectiveness30Step5：AnalysisofalternativeStep6：SelectionofanalternativeWemerelyhavetochoosethealternativethatgeneratedthehighestscoreinstep5.IdentificationofaproblemIdentificationofdecisioncriteriaAllocationofweightstocriteriaDevelopmentofalternativesAnalysisofalternativesSelectionofanalternativeImplementationofthealternativeEvaluationofdecisioneffectiveness31Step6：SelectionofanalternaStep7：ImplementationofthealternativeThisstepisconcernedwithputtingthedecisionintoaction.IdentificationofaproblemIdentificationofdecisioncriteriaAllocationofweightstocriteriaDevelopmentofalternativesAnalysisofalternativesSelectionofanalternativeImplementationofthealternativeEvaluationofdecisioneffectiveness32Step7：ImplementationoftheaStep8：EvaluationofdecisioneffectivenessThelaststepinthedecision-makingprocessappraisestheresultofdecisiontoseewhetherithascorrectedtheproblem.(Chapter13)IdentificationofaproblemIdentificationofdecisioncriteriaAllocationofweightstocriteriaDevelopmentofalternativesAnalysisofalternativesSelectionofanalternativeImplementationofthealternativeEvaluationofdecisioneffectiveness33Step8：EvaluationofdecisionMakingDecisions：TheRationalModelTheproblemisclearandunambiguous.Asinglewell-definedgoalistobeachieved.Allalternativesandconsequencesareknown.Preferencesareclear.Preferencesareconstantandstable.Notimeorcostconstraintsexist.Finalchoicewillmaximizeeconomicpayoff.34MakingDecisions：TheRationalModificationoftheRationalModel–BoundedRationalityWhatthemanagersdoisconstructsimplifiedmodelsthatextracttheessentialfeaturesfromproblemswithoutcapturingalloftheircomplexities.Adecisioninwhich“goodenough”solutionsareselected.35ModificationoftheRationalMCommonErrorsareCommittedintheDecision-makingProcessHeuristicsJudgmentshortcutsAvailabilityheuristicRepresentativeheuristicEscalationofcommitment36CommonErrorsareCommittedinHowDoProblemsDifferWell-structuredproblemsStraightforward,familiar,easilydefinedproblems.Ill-structuredproblemsNewproblemsinwhichinformationisambiguousorincomplete.37HowDoProblemsDifferWell-strHowDoDecisionsDifferProgrammeddecisionArepetitivedecisionthatcanbehandledbyaroutineapproach.ProcedureRulePolicyNonprogrammeddecision
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