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AdaptiveEstimationandTuningofSatelliteObservationErrorinAssimilationCyclewithGRAPESHuaZHANG,DehuiCHEN,XueshunSHEN,JishanXUE,WeiHAN
ChinaMeteorologicalAdministration(CMA)AdaptiveEstimationandTuning1OUTLINEIntroductionofGRAPES-3DVarTuningofobervationerrorindataassimilationLatestdevelopmentintheglobalassimilation/predictionexperiment：2008SummaryOUTLINEIntroductionofGRAPES-21.IntroductionofGRAPES-3DVar
MainfeaturesofGRAPES_GASGridanalysisA+Pwithflexibleresolutionsetupincrementalxa=xb+xVariableoptionsanalysis/T,u,v,rhcontrol,,u,rhpreconditioningcontrolspacemodelspacex=Uw,UUpUvUhRegional:RecursivefilterforUhGlobal:SpectralfilterforUhMinimizationLimitedmemoryBFGSmethodMass-windconstraintLinearbalanceequation(now)Nonlinearbalanceequation(ontesting)ProgrammingFortran90,Modularstructure,tobeparalleled1.IntroductionofGRAPES-3DVa3PreprocessingRawATOVSDATAQualityControlPreprocessing
ConventionalDATAQualityControl10DForecastGRAPESGLOBAL3D-VARGRAPESGLOBALMODELINCREMENTALSIDIGITALFILTERINITIALIZATION6hForecastcycleAt00/12ZGRAPES_GFSanalysis：1.875°forecast：1°PreprocessingQualityControlPr4????
Costfunction
Bacgrounderror:Observationerror:Basichypothesis:
Optimalitycriterion(Bennet1992;Talagrand,1999)
2.Tuningofbackgroundandobservationerrorindataassimilation(WeiHANandJishanXUE,2007)
????
CostfunctionBacground5innovationcovariance:
Iterativefixed-pointmethod:
Desrosiesetal.,2005(1)(2)innovationcovariance:Iterat6onlySondeRHobservationassimilationinGRAPESregional3DVAR20070601-0614OnlyRHobs.areassimilatedtotesttheapproach,sinceitisthusaunivariateanalysisBluedot:initialobs.errorofrhBluedashdot:initialbackgrounderrorofrhonlySondeRHobservationassi7NOAA16,AMSUA
20070601-0614
diagnosisObserroBak.erroNOAA16,AMSUA
20070601-0614
dia8ITWGNWPWGlistofassumedobservationerrors
ITWGNWPWGlistofassumedo9AgainstRadiosonde：
humididyinformationofAMSUBhasaproperresponseinGRAPES-3DVAR58238,Nanjing59948,SanyaRed:xbBlue:xa(amsub)Black:SoundeAgainstRadiosonde：
humididyi10Independentverification:
RH[xa(amsub)]-Y(sonde)BeforeTuningAfterTuning2007060900,500hPaBlack:BeforeTuning;Red:Aftertuning10casesstatisticsIndependentverification:
RH[11Tuningofobservationerrorimprove
GRAPES(30km)QPFTuningofobservationerrorim123.Latestdevelopmentintheglobalassimilation/predictionexperiment：
2008(XueshunSHENetal,2008)Re-estimatetheobs.errorofsondeandradiancesSEMI-BiasCorrectioninbackgroundModifytheQCofsatelliteradiancesIntroduceNOAA-15ImprovethesurfacealbedoIntroducethediagnosticcloudref.ECMWFIntroducethenewO3dataDailySST3.Latestdevelopmentinthegl13ATOVSmicrowave(NOAA151617)radiancesSondes geop/humidity/windSynops geop/humidity/windShipsgeop/humidity/windAireptemp/windSatob
wind
DataapplicationofGRAPES-3DVARATOVSmicrowave(NOAA151614
500hPaACC
againstNCEP
海溫資料更新濕度分析（水物質(zhì)相態(tài)）采用增量插值標(biāo)準(zhǔn)初始化方案針對南極探空的質(zhì)量控制考慮模式偏差的衛(wèi)星資料偏差訂正模式偏差訂正參數(shù)調(diào)整(0.9,0.3)背景誤差(循環(huán)同化預(yù)報(bào)結(jié)果統(tǒng)計(jì))探空資料質(zhì)量控制衛(wèi)星資料背景場誤差和觀測誤差的估計(jì)衛(wèi)星資料質(zhì)量控制新方案(BackgroundCheck)走過四季冬春夏秋500hPaACC
againstNCEP海溫資料1510天預(yù)報(bào)的500hPa-ACC檢驗(yàn)(vs-NCEP-ANA)-WMO課件16北半球，10天預(yù)報(bào)的500hPaACC檢驗(yàn)(.vs.NCEPANA.)
(2006120112－2007013112,62cases)北半球，10天預(yù)報(bào)的500hPaACC檢驗(yàn)(.vs.NC17南半球，10天預(yù)報(bào)的500hPaACC檢驗(yàn)(.vs.NCEPANA.)
(2006120112－2007013112,62cases)南半球，10天預(yù)報(bào)的500hPaACC檢驗(yàn)(.vs.NC18南半球預(yù)報(bào)檢驗(yàn)，31cases(200612),
againstNCEPANA.NOAA-15資料的影響試驗(yàn)?zāi)习肭蝾A(yù)報(bào)檢驗(yàn)，31cases(200612),
agai19SummaryItispromisingforthenewimplementationofthetuningobservationerror.GRAPESisprogressing,whichimproveitsperformance.Sondesareimportantinsouthernpoleregion.moresatellitedataapplicationSummaryItispromisingforthe20Thanks!Thanks!21Suggestions?Assimilation:moresatellitedataapplication,especiallyinSHandoceananypossibledata(real-time)&experiences?ModelWeaksubtropicalhighExcessiveprecipitationoverthemaritimecontinentLargecoolingbiasattop(~10hPa)CouplingofSISLdynamics&physicsHybridverticalcoordinateinnon-hydrostaticmodelSuggestions?Assimilation:more22考慮了背景偏差的衛(wèi)星資料觀測偏差訂正方案：“半偏訂正”Itisobviousthatthesystematicdeparture:H(xb)-Yo,Isduetomodelbias,Sowemakea“Semi-Bias”correctionAsaregularizationterminVarBC考慮了背景偏差的衛(wèi)星資料觀測偏差訂正方案：“半偏訂正”It23AdaptiveEstimationandTuningofSatelliteObservationErrorinAssimilationCyclewithGRAPESHuaZHANG,DehuiCHEN,XueshunSHEN,JishanXUE,WeiHAN
ChinaMeteorologicalAdministration(CMA)AdaptiveEstimationandTuning24OUTLINEIntroductionofGRAPES-3DVarTuningofobervationerrorindataassimilationLatestdevelopmentintheglobalassimilation/predictionexperiment：2008SummaryOUTLINEIntroductionofGRAPES-251.IntroductionofGRAPES-3DVar
MainfeaturesofGRAPES_GASGridanalysisA+Pwithflexibleresolutionsetupincrementalxa=xb+xVariableoptionsanalysis/T,u,v,rhcontrol,,u,rhpreconditioningcontrolspacemodelspacex=Uw,UUpUvUhRegional:RecursivefilterforUhGlobal:SpectralfilterforUhMinimizationLimitedmemoryBFGSmethodMass-windconstraintLinearbalanceequation(now)Nonlinearbalanceequation(ontesting)ProgrammingFortran90,Modularstructure,tobeparalleled1.IntroductionofGRAPES-3DVa26PreprocessingRawATOVSDATAQualityControlPreprocessing
ConventionalDATAQualityControl10DForecastGRAPESGLOBAL3D-VARGRAPESGLOBALMODELINCREMENTALSIDIGITALFILTERINITIALIZATION6hForecastcycleAt00/12ZGRAPES_GFSanalysis：1.875°forecast：1°PreprocessingQualityControlPr27????
Costfunction
Bacgrounderror:Observationerror:Basichypothesis:
Optimalitycriterion(Bennet1992;Talagrand,1999)
2.Tuningofbackgroundandobservationerrorindataassimilation(WeiHANandJishanXUE,2007)
????
CostfunctionBacground28innovationcovariance:
Iterativefixed-pointmethod:
Desrosiesetal.,2005(1)(2)innovationcovariance:Iterat29onlySondeRHobservationassimilationinGRAPESregional3DVAR20070601-0614OnlyRHobs.areassimilatedtotesttheapproach,sinceitisthusaunivariateanalysisBluedot:initialobs.errorofrhBluedashdot:initialbackgrounderrorofrhonlySondeRHobservationassi30NOAA16,AMSUA
20070601-0614
diagnosisObserroBak.erroNOAA16,AMSUA
20070601-0614
dia31ITWGNWPWGlistofassumedobservationerrors
ITWGNWPWGlistofassumedo32AgainstRadiosonde：
humididyinformationofAMSUBhasaproperresponseinGRAPES-3DVAR58238,Nanjing59948,SanyaRed:xbBlue:xa(amsub)Black:SoundeAgainstRadiosonde：
humididyi33Independentverification:
RH[xa(amsub)]-Y(sonde)BeforeTuningAfterTuning2007060900,500hPaBlack:BeforeTuning;Red:Aftertuning10casesstatisticsIndependentverification:
RH[34Tuningofobservationerrorimprove
GRAPES(30km)QPFTuningofobservationerrorim353.Latestdevelopmentintheglobalassimilation/predictionexperiment：
2008(XueshunSHENetal,2008)Re-estimatetheobs.errorofsondeandradiancesSEMI-BiasCorrectioninbackgroundModifytheQCofsatelliteradiancesIntroduceNOAA-15ImprovethesurfacealbedoIntroducethediagnosticcloudref.ECMWFIntroducethenewO3dataDailySST3.Latestdevelopmentinthegl36ATOVSmicrowave(NOAA151617)radiancesSondes geop/humidity/windSynops geop/humidity/windShipsgeop/humidity/windAireptemp/windSatob
wind
DataapplicationofGRAPES-3DVARATOVSmicrowave(NOAA151637
500hPaACC
againstNCEP
海溫資料更新濕度分析（水物質(zhì)相態(tài)）采用增量插值標(biāo)準(zhǔn)初始化方案針對南極探空的質(zhì)量控制考慮模式偏差的衛(wèi)星資料偏差訂正模式偏差訂正參數(shù)調(diào)整(0.9,0.3)背景誤差(循環(huán)同化預(yù)報(bào)結(jié)果統(tǒng)計(jì))探空資料質(zhì)量控制衛(wèi)星資料背景場誤差和觀測誤差的估計(jì)衛(wèi)星資料質(zhì)量控制新方案(BackgroundCheck)走過四季冬春夏秋500hPaACC
againstNCEP海溫資料3810天預(yù)報(bào)的500hPa-ACC檢驗(yàn)(vs-NCEP-ANA)-WMO課件39北半球，10天預(yù)報(bào)的500hPaACC檢驗(yàn)(.vs.NCEPANA.)
(2006120112－2007013112,62cases)北半球，10天預(yù)報(bào)的500hPaACC檢驗(yàn)(.vs.NC40南半球，10天預(yù)報(bào)的500hPaACC檢驗(yàn)(.vs.NCEPANA.)
(2006120112－2007013112,6
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