少即是多策略研究框架

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/r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n/r/n /r/n /r/n/r/n/r/n流動性/r/n/r/n/r/n/r/n經(jīng)濟增長/r/n/r/n/r/n通脹/r/n資料來源：海通證券研究所/r/n/r/n/r/n19/r/n/r/n請務(wù)必閱讀正文之后的信息披露和法律聲明/r/n/r/n40%/r/n/r/n3/r/n0%/r/n/r/n20%/r/n/r/n1/r/n0%/r/n/r/n0%/r/n/r/n/r/n-20%/r/n/r/n累/r/n計收益率/r/n/r/n(/r/n05/01-05/07/r/n)/r/n/r/n05/06/r/n/r/n05/07/r/n股/r/n票/r/n區(qū)間/r/n內(nèi)最大跌幅(/r/n/r/n%/r/n/r/n)/r/n2/r/n005/3-/r/n2/r/n005/6/r/n貴州茅臺/r/n-/r/n26.9/r/n萬/r/n華化學(xué)/r/n-/r/n40.9/r/n云南白藥/r/n-/r/n25.8/r/n蘇寧易購/r/n-/r/n26.4/r/n2/r/n013/9-/r/n2/r/n014/6/r/n歌爾股份/r/n-/r/n36.6/r/n海/r/n康威視/r/n-/r/n33.8/r/n云南白藥/r/n-/r/n30.3/r/n伊利股/r/n份/r/n-/r/n27.4/r/n2/r/n018/6-/r/n2/r/n019/2/r/n貴州茅臺/r/n-/r/n35.8/r/n美的集/r/n團/r/n-/r/n41.3/r/n恒瑞醫(yī)藥/r/n-/r/n40.2/r/n伊利股/r/n份/r/n-/r/n34.3/r/n讀正文之后的信息披露和法律聲明/r/n資料來源：海通證券研究所/r/n/r/n21/r/n/r/n請/r/n務(wù)必閱讀正文之后的信息披露和法律聲明/r/n2/r/n：盈利是股市/r/n的根基/r/n /r/n營/r/n收/r/n增速/r/n/r/n/r/n總需求(/r/n/r/nGDP/r/n、工業(yè)增加值)/r/n/r/n /r/n毛利/r/n率/r/n/r/n/r/n價格水平(/r/n/r/nPPIRM/r/n、/r/nPPI/r/n、/r/nCPI/r/n/r/n)/r/n/r/n財務(wù)費用率/r/n財務(wù)費用率/r/n——/r/n資金成本/r/n/r/n/r/n/r/n銷售、管理費用率/r/n——/r/n相對剛性/r/n/r/n2/r/n2/r/n讀正文之后的信息披露和法律聲明/r/n05/03/r/n05/12/r/n06/09/r/n07/06/r/n08/03/r/n08/12/r/n09/09/r/n05/03/r/n05/12/r/n06/09/r/n07/06/r/n08/03/r/n08/12/r/n09/09/r/n20//r/n03/r/n20//r/n12/r/n21//r/n09/r/n22//r/n06/r/n《如何預(yù)測跟蹤盈/r/n利趨勢？/r/n-20190919/r/n》、《/r/n“/r/n盈”在起點/r/n——/r/n企業(yè)盈利分析框架/r/n-20200820/r/n》/r/n2/r/n1/r/n2/r/n1/r/n0/r/n9/r/n8/r/n7/r/n6/r/n2/r/n1/r/n2/r/n1/r/n0/r/n9/r/n8/r/n7/r/n6/r/n0/06/r/n1/05/r/n2/04/r/n5/r/n0/r/n/r/nA/r/n股剔除金融/r/n歸母凈利潤累計同比(/r/n/r/n%/r/n/r/n)/r/n0/r/n0/r/n23/r/n/r/n/r/n請務(wù)必閱讀正文之后的信息披露和法律聲明/r/n2/r/n4/r/n03/03/r/n04/03/r/n05/03/r/n06/03/r/n07/03/r/n08/03/r/n09/03/r/n2/r/n0/r/n/03/r/n2/r/n03/03/r/n04/03/r/n05/03/r/n06/03/r/n07/03/r/n08/03/r/n09/03/r/n2/r/n0/r/n/03/r/n2/r/n1/r/n/03/r/n2/r/n2/r/n/03/r/n讀正文之后的信息披露和法律聲明/r/n/r/nA/r/n股營收累計同比(/r/n/r/n%/r/n，左軸)/r/n/r/n/r/n名義/r/nGDP/r/n累計同比(/r/n/r/n%/r/n，右/r/n軸)/r/n/r/n4/r/n0/r/n/r/n/r/n0/r/n/r/n/r/n0/r/n/r/n/r/n-/r/n10/r/n/r/n-/r/n20/r/n/r/n /r/n4/r/n0/r/n /r/n /r/n0/r/n /r/n /r/n0/r/n /r/n-/r/n10/r/n36%/r/n32%/r/n36%/r/n32%/r/n28%/r/n24%/r/n20%/r/n /r/n/r/n/r/n一季度/r/nA/r/n股凈利潤占全年比重(/r/n/r/n%/r/n/r/n)/r/n/r/n/r/n一季度/r/nGDP/r/n占全年/r/n比重(不變價，/r/n/r/n%/r/n/r/n)/r/n2/r/n5/r/n2/r/n0/r/n/01/r/n2/r/n1/r/n/03/r/n2/r/n2/r/n/05/r/n2/r/n0/r/n/01/r/n2/r/n1/r/n/03/r/n2/r/n2/r/n/05/r/n20/0/r/n1/r/n21/0/r/n3/r/n22/0/r/n5/r/n/r/n風(fēng)險溢價率(股價回報減無風(fēng)險利率)、股債收益比等。/r/n-/r/n1/r/n/r/n逆/r/n/r/n向/r/n/r/n排/r/n/r/n序/r/n3/r/n5/r/n1/r/n倍標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差/r/n/r/nA/r/n1/r/n倍標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差/r/n/r/n均/r/n值/r/n+1/r/n倍標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差/r/n0/r/n.4/r/n0/r/n.6/r/n逆/r/n向/r/n排/r/n序/r/n0/r/n.8/r/n/r/n滬深/r/n300/r/n股息率/r/n//r/n十年期國債收益率/r/n均/r/n值/r/n+1/r/n倍標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差/r/n均值/r/n均值/r/n-1/r/n倍標(biāo)準(zhǔn)/r/n差/r/n2/r/n6/r/n2/r/n0/r/n/01/r/n2/r/n0/r/n/08/r/n2/r/n1/r/n/03/r/n2/r/n1/r/n/10/r/n2/r/n2/r/n/05/r/n9/r/n0%/r/n8/r/n0%/r/n70%/r/n60/r/n%/r/n5/r/n0%/r/n40/r/n%/r/n60/r/n00/r/n華/r/n潤信托陽光私募股票多頭基金平均倉位(左軸)/r/n/r/n滬/r/n深/r/n2/r/n0/r/n/01/r/n2/r/n0/r/n/08/r/n2/r/n1/r/n/03/r/n2/r/n1/r/n/10/r/n2/r/n2/r/n/05/r/n9/r/n0%/r/n8/r/n0%/r/n70%/r/n60/r/n%/r/n5/r/n0%/r/n40/r/n%/r/n60/r/n00/r/n華/r/n潤信托陽光私募股票多頭基金平均倉位(左軸)/r/n/r/n滬/r/n深/r/n300/r/n/r/n(右軸)/r/n5/r/n000/r/n4000/r/n3/r/n000/r/n2000/r/n讀正文之后的信息披露和法律聲明/r/n/r/n0/r/n8/r/n6/r/n4/r/n2/r/n0/r/n融資/r/n買/r/n入額占/r/nA/r/n股成交額比重(/r/n/r/n%/r/n/r/n)/r/n2/r/n0/r/n/06/r/n2/r/n1/r/n/06/r/n2/r/n2/r/n2/r/n/06/r/n2/r/n000/r/n2/r/n002/r/n2/r/n004/r/n2/r/n006/r/n2/r/n008/r/n2/r/n2/r/n000/r/n2/r/n002/r/n2/r/n004/r/n2/r/n006/r/n2/r/n008/r/n2/r/n010/r/n2/r/n0/r/n12/r/n2/r/n014/r/n2/r/n016/r/n2/r/n0/r/n18/r/n2/r/n020/r/n2/r/n0/r/n22/r/n/r/n/r/n3840/r/n0/r/n9/r/n600/r/n2/r/n400/r/n60/r/n0/r/n20//r/n03/r/n20//r/n06/r/n20/0/r/n9/r/n20//r/n12/r/n21//r/n03/r/n21//r/n06/r/n21//r/n09/r/n21//r/n12/r/n22//r/n03/r/n20//r/n03/r/n20//r/n06/r/n20/0/r/n9/r/n20//r/n12/r/n21//r/n03/r/n21//r/n06/r/n21//r/n09/r/n21//r/n12/r/n22//r/n03/r/n22//r/n06/r/n22/0/r/n9/r/n22//r/n12/r/n復(fù)/r/n蘇/r/n/r/n過熱/r/n/r/n滯脹/r/n/r/n衰退/r/nGDP/r/n不/r/n變/r/n價當(dāng)季同比/r/n-/r/n兩年年化(/r/n%/r/n，左軸)/r/nPPI/r/n當(dāng)月同比(/r/n/r/n%/r/n，右軸/r/n)/r/n15/r/n10/r/n5/r/n5/r/n0/r/n0/r/n讀正文之后的信息披露和法律聲明/r/n歷史低點/r/n/r/n上/r/n證綜指/r/n低點點位/r/n全/r/n部/r/nA/r/n股/r/n/r/nPE/r/n/r/n(/r/nTTM/r/n,/r/n倍)/r/n/r/nPB/r/n/r/n(/r/nLF/r/n,/r/n倍/r/n)/r/nA/r/n股/r/n風(fēng)險溢價率/r/n股/r/n債收益比/r/nA/r/n股破凈率/r/n2/r/n0/r/n05/6/6/r/n99/r/n8/r/n2/r/n.34%/r/n2/r/n4.2%/r/n2008/10/2/r/n8/r/n4/r/n.45%/r/n0.90/r/n20/r/n12/12/4/r/n4/r/n.88%/r/n0.88/r/n5.3/r/n%/r/n20/r/n16/1/27/r/n263/r/n8/r/n2/r/n.97%/r/n0.92/r/n2/r/n0/r/n19/1/4/r/n244/r/n0/r/n4/r/n.57%/r/n0.93/r/n值/r/n-/r/n3/r/n./r/n84%/r/n0.94/r/n20/r/n22/4/27/r/n286/r/n3/r/n3/r/n./r/n75%/r/n0.85/r/n不包括/r/n2022/r/n年數(shù)據(jù)；估值指標(biāo)為歷次市場底部階段/r/nPE/r/n、/r/nPB/r/n的最低值，大類/r/n資產(chǎn)比價指標(biāo)為歷/r/n次市場底部階段風(fēng)險溢價率和股債收益比的最高值/r/n/r/n28/r/n/r/n請務(wù)必閱讀正文之后的信息披露和法律聲明/r/n反轉(zhuǎn)/r/n的確認(rèn)信號/r/n《反彈到反轉(zhuǎn)需要/r/n啥條件？/r/n-20220504/r/n》/r/n各/r/n指標(biāo)見底時間/r/n領(lǐng)/r/n先指標(biāo)/r/n上證綜指/r/n(/r/n/r/n13/6/24/r/n)/r/n/r/n1/r/n9/01/r/n1/r/n./r/n貨幣政策/r/n各/r/n項貸款余額同比/r/n05/05/r/n05/05/r/n08/06/r/n08/06/r/n22/0/r/n22/0/r/n4/r/n社/r/n融規(guī)模存量同比/r/n//r/n//r/n//r/n21/1/r/n21/1/r/n0/r/nM/r/n2/r/n同比/r/n0/r/n0/r/n4/10/r/n0/r/n0/r/n8/11/r/n21/0/r/n21/0/r/n4/r/n2/r/n./r/n財政政策/r/n基/r/n建投資累計同比/r/n05/05/r/n05/05/r/n08/02/r/n08/02/r/n21/11/r/n21/11/r/n3./r/n制造業(yè)/r/n景氣度/r/nPMI/r/n指數(shù)/r/n0/r/n5/07/r/n08/11/r/n08/11/r/n22/0/r/n22/0/r/n4/r/nPMI/r/n新訂單/r/n0/r/n5/07/r/n08/11/r/n08/11/r/n22/0/r/n22/0/r/n4/r/n4/r/n./r/n早周期/r/n-/r/n地/r/n/r/n產(chǎn)/r/n商/r/n品房銷售面積累/r/n/r/n計/r/n同比/r/n04/12/r/n04/12/r/n0/r/n8/12/r/n2/r/n2/05?/r/n5/r/n./r/n早周期/r/n-/r/n汽/r/n/r/n車/r/n汽/r/n車銷量累計同比/r/n05/02/r/n05/02/r/n0/r/n9/01/r/n2/r/n2/05?/r/n指標(biāo)/r/n/r/n29/r/n/r/n/r/n請務(wù)必閱讀正文之后的信息披露和法律聲明/r/n指標(biāo)/r/n/r/n29/r/n/r/n/r/n請務(wù)必閱讀正文之后的信息披露和法律聲明/r/n30/r/n/r/n/r/n請務(wù)必閱讀正文之后的信息披露和法律聲明/r/n1/r/n1/r/n、認(rèn)識市場，認(rèn)識自/r/n己/r/n2/r/n2/r/n、辨識宏觀，尊重趨勢/r/n3/r/n3/r/n、深耕產(chǎn)業(yè)，長久之/r/n計/r/n4/r/n4/r/n、恪守紀(jì)律，知行合/r/n一/r/n讀正文之后的信息披露和法律聲明/r/n認(rèn)清/r/n時代，順應(yīng)趨勢/r/n讀正文之后的信息披露和法律聲明/r/n認(rèn)清/r/n時代，順應(yīng)趨勢/r/n《十倍股有哪些特別/r/n基因？/r/n-20160830/r/n》、《十年一片天：產(chǎn)業(yè)周期跨越股市牛熊/r/n-20160225/r/n》/r/n十倍股分布靠前行業(yè)占比(/r/n/r/n%/r/n/r/n)/r/n十/r/n倍股分布靠前行業(yè)占比(/r/n十倍股分布靠前行業(yè)占比(/r/n/r/n%/r/n/r/n)/r/n2/r/n0/r/n/r/n2/r/n0/r/n/r/n5/r/n/r/n0/r/n/r/n25/r/n/r/n20/r/n/r/n/r/n/r/n5/r/n/r/n0/r/n/r/n96/r/n//r/n1-01/6/r/n96/r/n//r/n1-01/6/r/n0/r/n8/10-09/8/r/n0/r/n5/6-07/10/r/n0/r/n8/10-09/8/r/n0/r/n5/6-07/10/r/n2004/r/n2009/r/n2014/r/n2019/r/n202/r/n4/r/nE/r/n202/r/n9/r/nE/r/n203/r/n4/r/nE/r/n203/r/n9/r/nE/r/n204/r/n4/r/nE/r/n204/r/n9/r/nE/r/n 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/r/n /r/n /r/n60/r/n.80/r/n /r/n66/r/n.20/r/n8/r/n1.00/r/n74./r/n50/r/n69/r/n.30/r/n9/r/n0.10/r/n/r/n8/r/n5.80/r/n9/r/n5.10/r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n/r/n39.5/r/n /r/n /r/n /r/n/r/n2012/r/n/r/n2013/r/n/r/n2014/r/n/r/n2015/r/n/r/n2016/r/n/r/n2017/r/n材料/r/n材料/r/n機/r/n機/r/n0/r/n0/r/n傳媒/r/n機械設(shè)/r/n備/r/n傳媒/r/n基/r/n礎(chǔ)化工/r/n0/r/n-60/r/n/r/n-30/r/n/r/n0/r/n/r/n30/r/n/r/n/r/n60/r/n/r/n90/r/n/r/n600/r/nWind/r/n/r/n請務(wù)必閱讀正文之后的信息披露和法律聲明/r/n/r/n/r/n0/r/n/r/n農(nóng)/r/n林/r/n/r/n公用事業(yè)/r/n/r/n牧漁/r/n /r/n /r/n有/r/n色金屬/r/n /r/n/r/n建筑裝飾/r/n銀/r/n行/r/n行/r/n /r/n/r/n石油石化/r/n0/r/n/r/n10/r/n/r/n20/r/n/r/n30/r/n/r/n40/r/n/r/n50/r/n/r/n60/r/n/r/n70/r/n/r/n80/r/n/r/n90/r/n/r/n100/r/n2013/r/nQ/r/n2/r/n以來/r/nROE/r/n-/r/nTTM/r/n歷史分位(/r/n/r/n%/r/n)/r/nWind/r/n/r/n42/r/n/r/n請務(wù)必閱讀正文之后的信息披露和法律聲明/r/n0/r/n5/06/r/n0/r/n6/03/r/n0/r/n6/12/r/n0/r/n7/09/r/n0/r/n8/06/r/n0/r/n9/03/r/n0/r/n9/12/r/n11/r/n/06/r/n12/r/n/03/r/n13/r/n/09/r/n14/r/n/06/r/n15/r/n/03/r/n15/r/n/12/r/n16/r/n/09/r/n17/r/n/06/r/n18/r/n/03/r/n18/r/n/12/r/n19/r/n/09/r/n05/0/r/n6/r/n06/0/r/n3/r/n06/1/r/n2/r/n07/0/r/n9/r/n08/0/r/n6/r/n09/0/r/n3/r/n09/1/r/n2/r/n0/r/n5/06/r/n0/r/n6/03/r/n0/r/n6/12/r/n0/r/n7/09/r/n0/r/n8/06/r/n0/r/n9/03/r/n0/r/n9/12/r/n11/r/n/06/r/n12/r/n/03/r/n13/r/n/09/r/n14/r/n/06/r/n15/r/n/03/r/n15/r/n/12/r/n16/r/n/09/r/n17/r/n/06/r/n18/r/n/03/r/n18/r/n/12/r/n19/r/n/09/r/n05/0/r/n6/r/n06/0/r/n3/r/n06/1/r/n2/r/n07/0/r/n9/r/n08/0/r/n6/r/n09/0/r/n3/r/n09/1/r/n2/r/n/r/n/r/n6/r/n/r/n5/r/n/r/n4/r/n/r/n3/r/n/r/n/r/n2/r/n/r/n1/r/n/r/n0/r/n/r/n白酒/r/n//r/n滬深/r/n300/r/n/r/n(右軸)/r/n6/r/n4/r/n2/r/n0/r/n/r/n計算機/r/n//r/n滬深/r/n300/r/n/r/n(右軸)/r/n /r/n/r/n3./r/n5/r/n2.5/r/n0./r/n5/r/n/r/n基金重倉股白酒市值占比/r/n//r/n滬深/r/n300/r/n白酒占比(左軸)/r/n8/r/n2/r/n.0/r/n/r/n基金重倉股白酒市值占比/r/n//r/n滬深/r/n300/r/n白酒占比(左軸)/r/n8/r/n2/r/n.0/r/n8/r/n4/r/n0/r/nnd/r/n43/r/n/r/nnd/r/n03//r/n09/r/n04//r/n12/r/n06//r/n03/r/n07//r/n06/r/n08//r/n09/r/n09//r/n12/r/n03//r/n09/r/n04//r/n12/r/n06//r/n03/r/n07//r/n06/r/n08//r/n09/r/n09//r/n12/r/n2/r/n1/03/r/n2/r/n2/06/r/n/r/n國/r/n證成長/r/n//r/n價值(左軸)/r/n國/r/n證成長/r/n//r/n價值(左軸)/r/n0./r/n9/r/n/r/n0./r/n8/r/n/r/n0./r/n7/r/n/r/n0./r/n6/r/n/r/n0./r/n5/r/n/r/n0./r/n4/r/n/r/n0./r/n3/r/n/r/n0/r/n5/06/r/n0/r/n6/06/r/n0/r/n7/06/r/n0/r/n8/06/r/n0/r/n9/06/r/n6/r/n6/r/n6/r/n6/r/n6/r/n6/r/n6/r/n6/r/n6/r/n6/r/n20/06/r/n21/06/r/n22/06/r/n/r/n創(chuàng)/r/n業(yè)板指/r/n0/r/n5/06/r/n0/r/n6/06/r/n0/r/n7/06/r/n0/r/n8/06/r/n0/r/n9/06/r/n6/r/n6/r/n6/r/n6/r/n6/r/n6/r/n6/r/n6/r/n6/r/n6/r/n20/06/r/n21/06/r/n22/06/r/n2./r/n5/r/n2./r/n3/r/n2./r/n1/r/n0./r/n9/r/n請/r/n務(wù)/r/n必閱讀正文之后的信息披露和法律聲明/r/n/r/n6.0/r/n/r/n5.5/r/n/r/n5.0/r/n/r/n4.5/r/n/r/n4.0/r/n/r/n/r/n6.0/r/n/r/n5.5/r/n/r/n5.0/r/n/r/n4.5/r/n/r/n4.0/r/n/r/n3.5/r/n/r/n3.0/r/n/r/n2.5/r/n/r/n國/r/n證/r/n成長/r/n//r/n價值(左軸)/r/n/r/n/r/n創(chuàng)業(yè)板指/r/n//r/n滬深/r/n300/r/n/r/n*1.5/r/n/r/n(左軸)/r/n/r/n/r/n中國/r/n10/r/n年國債收益率(/r/n/r/n%/r/n，右軸)/r/n5/01/r/n5/08/r/n6/03/r/n6/10/r/n7/05/r/n7/12/r/n8/07/r/n9/02/r/n9/09/r/n20/r/n/03/r/n20/r/n/10/r/n21/r/n/05/r/n21/r/n/12/r/n資料來源：/r/n/r/nWind/r/n，海通證券研究所，注：紅色區(qū)域為我國國債利率上升且/r/nA/r/n股成長風(fēng)格/r/n占/r/n優(yōu)，綠色區(qū)域為我國國/r/n債/r/n利率上升且/r/nA/r/n股價值風(fēng)格占優(yōu)，/r/n/r/n數(shù)據(jù)截至/r/n22/07/22/r/n/r/n45/r/n/r/n請務(wù)必閱讀正文之后的信息披露和法律聲明/r/n80/r/n6/r/n0/r/n40/r/n2/r/n0/r/n0/r/n-2/r/n0/r/n-4/r/n0/r/n-6/r/n0/r/n-8/r/n0/r/n10//r/n03/r/n10//r/n12/r/n11//r/n09/r/n12//r/n06/r/n13//r/n03/r/n13//r/n12/r/n14//r/n09/r/n15//r/n06/r/n16//r/n03/r/n16//r/n12/r/n17//r/n09/r/n18//r/n06/r/n19//r/n03/r/n19//r/n12/r/n09/r/n2/r/n1/06/r/n2/r/n2/03/r/n10//r/n03/r/n10//r/n12/r/n11//r/n09/r/n12//r/n06/r/n13//r/n03/r/n13//r/n12/r/n14//r/n09/r/n15//r/n06/r/n16//r/n03/r/n16//r/n12/r/n17//r/n09/r/n18//r/n06/r/n19//r/n03/r/n19//r/n12/r/n09/r/n2/r/n1/06/r/n2/r/n2/03/r/n/r/n創(chuàng)業(yè)板指/r/n//r/n滬深/r/n300/r/n/r/n(右軸)/r/n0.7/r/n0.6/r/n0.5/r/n0.4/r/n0.3/r/n0.2/r/n6/r/n4/r/n2/r/n0/r/n4/r/n6/r/n8/r/n-1/r/n0/r/n0.8/r/nROE/r/n差(/r/n創(chuàng)/r/n業(yè)板指/r/n-/r/n/r/n滬深/r/n300/r/n/r/n，/r/nTTM/r/n/r/n，/r/n%/r/n，左軸)/r/n0.8/r/n創(chuàng)/r/n業(yè)板指/r/n//r/n滬深/r/n300/r/n/r/n(右軸)/r/n0.7/r/n0.6/r/n0.3/r/n0.2/r/n請/r/n務(wù)/r/n必閱讀正文之后的信息披露和法律聲明/r/n20/0/r/n3/r/n20/0/r/n9/r/n21/0/r/n3/r/n21/0/r/n9/r/n20/0/r/n3/r/n20/0/r/n9/r/n21/0/r/n3/r/n21/0/r/n9/r/n/r/n中國智能手機滲透率(/r/n/r/n%/r/n，左軸/r/n)/r/n/r/nTMT/r/n歸母凈利累計同比(/r/n/r/n%/r/n，右軸/r/n)/r/n/r/nROE/r/n/r/n(/r/nTTM/r/n)差值(茅指數(shù)/r/n-/r/n萬得全/r/nA/r/n/r/nTMT/r/n歸母凈利累計同比(/r/n/r/n%/r/n，右軸/r/n)/r/n4/r/n0/r/n0/r/n /r/n /r/n4/r/n0/r/n /r/n0/r/n /r/n0/r/n9/r/n8/r/n7/r/n6/r/n /r/n8/r/n7/r/n6/r/n /r/n-/r/n40/r/n /r/n-/r/n60/r/n /r/n-/r/n80/r/n507/r/n》、《看好成長的三個理由/r/n-20220515/r/n》/r/n我國光伏月度新增裝機量(/r/n/r/nGW/r/n/r/n/r/n4/r/n/r/n2/r/n/r/n0/r/n21/r/n年/r/n/r/n/r/n2022/r/n年/r/n8/r/n3/r/n.3/r/n2/r/n.8/r/n2/r/n.1/r/n/r/n2.4/r/n7/r/n1/r/n1-2/r/n月/r/n/r/n3/r/n月/r/n/r/n4/r/n月/r/n/r/n5/r/n月/r/n/r/n6/r/n月/r/n00/r/n0/r/n600/r/n00/r/n400/r/n00/r/n20/r/n0/r/n0/r/n-1/r/n00/r/n/r/n20//r/n01/r/n20//r/n03/r/n20//r/n05/r/n20//r/n07/r/n20//r/n09/r/n20/1/r/n1/r/n21//r/n01/r/n21//r/n03/r/n21//r/n05/r/n21//r/n07/r/n21//r/n09/r/n21//r/n11/r/n22//r/n01/r/n22//r/n03/r/n22//r/n05/r/n讀正文之后的信息披露和法律聲明/r/n/r/n4/r/n0/r/n/r/n0/r/n/r/n0/r/n/r/n/r/n/r/n4/r/n0/r/n/r/n0/r/n/r/n0/r/n/r/n/r/n-/r/n20/r/n/r/n0/r/n4/r/n5/r/n/r/n30/r/n/r/n0/r/n-/r/n1/r/n5/r/n/r/n-30/r/n/r/n社會消費品零售總額/r/n:/r/n當(dāng)月同比(/r/n/r/n%/r/n/r/n)/r/n/r/n/r/n工業(yè)增加值/r/n:/r/n當(dāng)月同比(/r/n/r/n%/r/n/r/n)/r/n18/04/r/n18/07/r/n18/10/r/n19/01/r/n19/04/r/n19/07/r/n19/10/r/n20/0/r/n1/r/n20/0/r/n4/r/n20/0/r/n7/r/n20/1/r/n0/r/n21/0/r/n1/r/n21/0/r/n4/r/n21/0/r/n7/r/n21/1/r/n0/r/n22/0/r/n1/r/n22/0/r/n4/r/n相對滬深/r/n300/r/n累計超額收益率(/r/n%/r/n)/r/n/r/n食品加工/r/n/r/n/r/n醫(yī)藥生物/r/n/r/n/r/n農(nóng)林牧/r/n漁/r/n49/r/n/r/n/r/n請務(wù)必閱讀正文之后的信息披露和法律聲明/r/n50/r/n/r/n/r/n請務(wù)必閱讀正文之后的信息披露和法律聲明/r/n1/r/n1/r/n、認(rèn)識市場，認(rèn)識自/r/n己/r/n2/r/n2/r/n、辨識宏觀，尊重趨勢/r/n3/r/n3/r/n、深耕產(chǎn)業(yè)，長久之/r/n計/r/n4/r/n4/r/n、恪守紀(jì)律，知行合/r/n一/r/n/r/n牛頓：“我可以預(yù)測天體運動的軌跡，卻無法預(yù)測人性的貪婪。/r/n”/r/n/r/n視近利，只顧眼前。這就是人性，不要妄想去更改。/r/n”/r/n科/r/n網(wǎng)泡沫/r/n南/r/n海泡沫/r/n密/r/n西西比泡沫/r/n郁金香泡/r/n沫/r/n歷/r/n/r/n歷/r/n/r/n次泡沫上漲倍/r/n數(shù)/r/n1/r/n1/r/n6/r/n個月/r/n2.8/r/n倍/r/n6/r/n個月/r/n8/r/n倍/r/n1/r/n3/r/n個月/r/n35/r/n倍/r/n2/r/n年/r/n59/r/n倍/r/n0/r/n/r/n/r/n10/r/n/r/n20/r/n/r/n30/r/n/r/n40/r/n/r/n50/r/n/r/n60/r/n/r/n70/r/n讀正文之后的信息披露和法律聲明/r/n讀正文之后的信息披露和法律聲明/r/n20/r/n00/r/n20/r/n01/r/n20/r/n02/r/n20/r/n03/r/n20/r/n04/r/n20/r/n05/r/n20/r/n06/r/n20/r/n07/r/n20/r/n08/r/n20/r/n09/r/n20/r/n10/r/n20/r/n11/r/n20/r/n12/r/n20/r/n13/r/n20/r/n14/r/n20/r/n15/r/n20/r/n16/r/n20/r/n17/r/n20/r/n18/r/n20/r/n19/r/n20/r/n讀正文之后的信息披露和法律聲明/r/n20/r/n00/r/n20/r/n01/r/n20/r/n02/r/n20/r/n03/r/n20/r/n04/r/n20/r/n05/r/n20/r/n06/r/n20/r/n07/r/n20/r/n08/r/n20/r/n09/r/n20/r/n10/r/n20/r/n11/r/n20/r/n12/r/n20/r/n13/r/n20/r/n14/r/n20/r/n15/r/n20/r/n16/r/n20/r/n17/r/n20/r/n18/r/n20/r/n19/r/n20/r/n20/r/n20/r/n21/r/n2/r/n5/r/n0%/r/n萬得全/r/nA/r/n振幅均值/r/n=68/r/n%/r/n /r/n標(biāo)普/r/n5/r/n00/r/n振幅均值/r/n=3/r/n3/r/n%/r/n/r/n200%/r/n50%/r/n/r/n沃/r/n倫/r/n·/r/n巴菲特：“第一不要虧損，第二永遠記住第一條！”/r/n/r/n凱恩斯/r/n：“市場保持非理性的時間，比你保持不破產(chǎn)的時間更長?！?r/n3/r/n50%/r/n3/r/n00%/r/n/r/n25/r/n0%/r/n/r/n20/r/n0%/r/n/r/n%/r/n/r/n%/r/n/r/n50%/r/n/r/n/r/n3/r/n22%/r/n換手率/r/n3/r/n22%/r/n211%/r/n211%/r/n27/r/n%/r/n全/r/n部/r/nA/r/n股/r/n20/r/n21/r/n年/r/n全部美股/r/n/r/n201/r/n8/r/n年/r/nA/r/n股/r/n權(quán)益類基金/r/n /r/n美/r/n股/r/n權(quán)益類基金/r/n2021/r/n年/r/n/r/n2021/r/n年/r/n資/r/n料來源：/r/n/r/nWind/r/n/r/n，世界銀行，/r/n/r/nICI/r/n/r/n《/r/n2022/r/nFactbook/r/n》/r/n/r/n，/r/n/r/n海通證券研究所/r/n/r/n/r/n利用非直覺系統(tǒng)(慢思考)對直覺系統(tǒng)(快思考)進行理性檢驗。/r/n讀正文之后的信息披露和法律聲明/r/n0/r/n600/r/n400/r/n20/r/n0/r/n0/r/n年/r/n化收益率為/r/n-23.68%/r/n年/r/n化收益率為/r/n-23.68%/r/n讀正文之后的信息披露和法律聲明/r/n讀正文之后的信息披露和法律聲明/r/n/r/n股價跌幅/r/n-/r/n10%/r/n-/r/n2/r/n0%/r/n-/r/n30%/r/n-/r/n40%/r/n-/r/n50%/r/n回到原點所需漲幅/r/n25%/r/n4/r/n3%/r/n67%/r/n投/r/n資組合/r/nA/r/n投/r/n資組合/r/nB/r/n累計/r/n收益率/r/n年化收益/r/n率/r/n第二/r/n年/r/n21%/r/n第四/r/n年/r/n4/r/n6%/r/n25%/r/n第六/r/n年/r/n77%/r/n4/r/n0%/r/n第八/r/n年/r/n57/r/n%/r/n第十/r/n年/r/n76%/r/n6/r/n%/r/n投資紀(jì)律是投資者的盔甲/r/n/r/n股諺：“會買的是徒弟，會賣的是師傅，會空倉的才是大師。”/r/n/r/n/r/n利弗莫爾：“賺錢不是靠怎么想，而是坐下來等?！?r/n/r/n《杰西.利弗莫爾瘋狂的一生》，海通證券研究所/r/n/r/n56/r/n讀正文之后的信息披露和法律聲明/r/n讀正文之后的信息披露和法律聲明/r/n《期貨大作手風(fēng)云錄》：/r/n讀正文之后的信息披露和法律聲明/r/n市場，感受市場/r/n上證綜/r/n指/r/n2300/r/n2250/r/n2200/r/n2150/r/n2100/r/n2/r/n050/r/n2000/r/n195/r/n0/r/n190/r/n0/r/n185/r/n0/r/n180/r/n0/r/n13//r/n0/r/n7/15/r/n/r/n13/07/29/r/n/r/n13/08/12/r/n/r/n13/08/26/r/n/r/n13/09/09/r/n創(chuàng)業(yè)板指/r/n1600/r/n2018-12-/r/n/r/n17/r/n/r/n2/r/n019-01-/r/n/r/n16/r/n/r/n2019-02-20/r/n/r/n2019-03-20/r/n59/r/n/r/n/r/n請務(wù)必閱讀正文之后的信息披露和法律聲明/r/n/r/n康/r/n德：“什么是哲學(xué)家？在理性指導(dǎo)下保持自我克制的人。”/r/n讀正文之后的信息披露和法律聲明/r/n讀正文之后的信息披露和法律聲明/r/n資料/r/n來/r/n源：/r/n/r/n《知行合一王陽明/r/n3:/r/n王陽明家訓(xùn)》/r/n,/r/n讀正文之后的信息披露和法律聲明/r/n6/r/n1/r/n2/r/n聲明和研究團隊/r/n析師聲明/r/n資咨詢執(zhí)業(yè)資格，以勤勉的職業(yè)態(tài)度，獨立、客觀地出具本報告。本報告所采用的數(shù)據(jù)和信息均來自/r/n/r/n/r/n姓名/r/n職/r/n級/r/nSAC/r/n執(zhí)業(yè)證書編號/r/n聯(lián)系電/r/n話/r/n郵/r/n箱/r/n首席分析師/r/nS/r/n0850/r/n511040006/r/r/n8/r/nxyg/r/n6/r/n052@/r/nhtsec/r/n./r/ncom/r/n李/r/n/r/n影/r/n高/r/n級分析師/r/nS/r/n0/r/n8/r/n50517090005/r/r/n7/r/nly/r/n1/r/n1082@/r/nhtsec/r/n./r/ncom/