中國半導體產(chǎn)業(yè)未來4種圖景及對全球半導體產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈的影 響

1、March 12, 2019 09:00 PM GMTChinas Industrial EvolutionMarch 12, 2019 09:00 PM GMTGlobalSemisHowWillChipInlayoutscenariosthefutureevolutionofChinassemiconductor industryinthisreport.alsoexaminewhatthosescenarioscouldmeanthe global semiconductor supplychain.MorganStanleydoesandseekstodobusinesswithcom

2、paniesinMorganStanleyResearch.Asaresult,shouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictof interestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofMorganStanleyResearch.shouldconsiderMorganStanleyResearchasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to th

3、e Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report.+=Analystsemployedbynon-U.S.affiliatesnotwithFINRA,maynotbeassociatedpersonsofthememberandmaynotbesubjecttoNASD/NYSErestrictionson communicationswithasubjectpublicandsecuritiesheldbyaanalystaccount.ContributorsMORGAN STANLEY TAIWAN LIMITED+Char

4、lie ChanEquity Analyst+8862 2730-1725 HYPERLINK mailto:Charlie.Chan Charlie.ChanMORGAN STANLEY ASIA LIMITED+Shawn KimEquityAnalyst+8523963-1005 HYPERLINK mailto:Shawn.Kim Shawn.KimMORGAN STANLEY & CO. LLCJoseph MooreEquity Analyst+1212 761-7516 HYPERLINK mailto:Joseph.Moore Joseph.MooreMORGAN STANLE

5、Y & CO. LLCCraig HettenbachEquity Analyst+1212 761-6435 HYPERLINK mailto:Craig.Hettenbach Craig.HettenbachMORGANSTANLEYMUFGSECURITIESCO.,LTD.+Kazuo Yoshikawa, CFAEquity Analyst+813 6836-8408 HYPERLINK mailto:Kazuo.Yoshikawa Kazuo.YoshikawaMORGAN STANLEY TAIWAN LIMITED+Daniel Yen, CFAEquity Analyst+8

6、862 2730-2863 HYPERLINK mailto:Daniel.Yen Daniel.YenMORGANSTANLEYTAIWANLIMITED+Eric ChaoResearch Associate+8862 2730-1723 HYPERLINK mailto:Eric.Chao Eric.ChaoMORGAN STANLEY TAIWAN LIMITED+Jeff HsuResearch Associate+8862 2730-2864 HYPERLINK mailto:Jeff.Hsu Jeff.HsuChinas Industrial EvolutionGlobalSem

7、isHowWillChipInlayoutscenariosthefutureevolutionofChinassemiconductor industryinthisreport.alsoexaminewhatthosescenarioscouldmeanthe global semiconductor supplychain.believethedirectionofChinassemiconductorindustrybeshapedbytwoquestions:1)Willtheindustryaimtoadvance through localization or globaliza

8、tion? and 2) Will the focus be high-valuedesignorlow-marginmanufacturing?Thesequestions informthefourscenariosweoutlineinthisreport.Thebest-casescenarioforChinaisIndustryUpgrade,bytechnologybreakthroughsinbothchipdesignandmanufacturing, while Chinese companies collaborate more with the global supply

9、 chain. The worst case is Budget Substitute, in Chinesecompaniescannotinnovateandthelocalsupplychainused to produce low-valuesemiconductors.Under the Global Commoditization scenario, China breaks global semiconductor manufacturing through joint ventures overseasM&Abutwithlimitedinnovation.Finally,ou

10、rbase-case scenarioisthataNewBreedofsemiconductorcompanypropelled by technologies like software-driven chip design X-stackingNAND.Self-sufficiencyismorethanjustthetradebalance:ThewaytomeasureChinasself-sufficiencyinsemiconductorsisasimplecomparisonofimportsandexports.However,wethinkthe resultingdefi

11、citaroundUS$227bnin2017makesthesituation lookworsethanitis,becauseChinaimportsmostofthosesemicon- ductorsuseinproductsthatarethenexportedagain.address this deficiency, we have developed a China Hardware Ecosystem framework. This measure shows that demand Chinesesystembrands(e.g.Lenovo,Xiaomi)isonlyU

12、S$77bn, IndustryViewGreater China Technology Semiconductors -Cautiousthe16%self-sufficiencyratioin2018alsosuggestsChinasICindustry has ample room togrow.InvestmentopportunitiesinChinasemis:Inthisreport,wepro- videapreliminaryguidetoChinaslocalsemiconductorsupplychain. Overthelongterm,weareoptimistic

13、onChineseICdesigncompa- nies.Intermsofmanufacturing,wearemorepositiveonthebility of backend foundries than wafer foundries, but theprofitabilityneedstoimprove.areOverweightGoodix(ICdesign) andUSI(backendfoundry).Onmemory,wethinkprivatecompany YMTCcouldbecomerelevantintheNANDFlashindustrybythinktheke

14、ychallengesfacingChinassemiconductorindustry areIPacquisitionandlocalindustryconsolidation.Globalimplications:ThepotentialemergenceofChinassemicon- ductorindustrycouldchallengeICdesignersintheUS,Korea,Taiwan,andbealong-termthreattotheglobalmemoryindustry (particularlyNANDandNOR).Growinginvestmentinp

15、roduction wouldbepositivesemicaps,photomasks,andchemicals,2019demandfromChinaneedstobediscountedgiventheslow progress of Chinese memoryfabs.ContentsScenarios Chinas EvolutionANewonChinasSemiconductorsDevelopmentchartsExecutiveSummary14Chinas journey so17ChinasSemiCompaniesvs.GlobalPeersin201821scena

16、rios thefuture31Defining effectiveself-sufficiency35 China semi investment perspective39 Implications for global semis43 Appendix 1: Potential breakthrough points for China semis45 Appendix2:US/China/TaiwanpolicyAppendix3:ExploringChinassemicompaniesour tourguide#1 Chinas waferfoundries51#2 Chinas b

17、ackendfoundries53 #3 China memory55 #4 China IC designExhibit 1:Possible outcomes in Chinas semiconductor industry evolutionSource: Morgan Stanley ResearchANewonChinasFuture DevelopmentExhibit 2:Our perspective versus the conventional view of Chinas semi industry developmentMorgan Stanleys perspecti

18、veConventional viewIndustry strategySelf-sufficiency measureTech ecosystemTrade balanceCore of industrial policyProductsProductionFocus sub-sectorIC Design, OSATWafer Foundry, MemoryRelevant technology benchmarksSystem-level integration (e.g. SiP)Moores LawIC design expertiseSoftware-driven ASIC des

19、ignLarge-scale integration (LSI) for SoCCorporate strategyMain operationHigh-value designLow-margin manufacturingSpending focusR&DCapexOperational KPIValue creationMarket shareFinancial KPIROERevenue scalePartnerships with foreign companiesGlobal collaborationJV/M&A, technology transfersMain foundin

20、g sourceCapital marketGovernment fundsSource: Morgan Stanley ResearchKey chartsExhibit 3:Chinas semiconductor consumption at different stages of the tech supply chain300Exhibit 4:Our estimates of Chinas self-sufficiency in semiconductor compo- nents70%250(US$bn)200(US$bn)150100243100911009150%40%30%

21、20%16%12%16%12%50-China consumptionChina system consumptionChina consumption10%China factory self- sufficiency %China system brand self- sufficiency %China end-user self- sufficiency %Source: Gartner, IHS Markit, IDC, company data, Morgan Stanley Research estimatesSource: Gartner, company data, Morg

22、an Stanley Research estimatesExhibit 5:ChinaSemiconductorIndexmarketcapitalizationandstagesofdevel- opmentExhibit 6:Sales of China-based semiconductor companiesRmbRmbbn%70060050040030020010050%40%30%20%10%0%-10%02004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e-20%Sour

23、ce: Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley ResearchExhibit 7:China semiconductor margins, by sector605040302010- (10)(20)(30)Mar-05 Apr-06 May-07 Jun-08 Jul-09 Aug-10 Sep-11 Oct-12 Nov-13 Dec-14 Jan-16 Feb-17 Mar-18FoundryICDesignOSATSource: Gartner, company data, Morgan Stanley Research estimatesSource: TrendFo

24、rce, Morgan Stanley ResearchExhibit 8:Chinas self-sufficiency ratio by end-deviceIndustrial andothers Networking equipment HomeAppliancesAutoTVPCFeaturephone-5,00010,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000(US$ mn)China selfproducedvalueProduced by otherregionsSource: Gartner, IHS Markit

25、, IDC, Morgan Stanley Research estimatesExecutiveSummaryWhy write this report now?aretakingastepbackfromrecentnoiseaboutChina/UStrade tensiontoassessthestructuralevolutionofChinassemiconductor industry.Ouraimwiththisreportistoprovidelong-termperspective to investors who wish to participate in the ca

26、pitalization of industryinChina.GlobalsemiinvestorsmayalsowanttoknowthepotentialriseofChinesesemicompaniescouldmeanpeers around theworld.Two critical questions.believeChinahasthepotentialtoincreaselocalproductionsemiconductorsgivenitslargeendmarketandabundanceofcapital. Italsohasthemotivationgiventh

27、eimportanceofsemiconductorsto almosteveryaspectofmodernHowever,comparedtotechnolo- giessuchassolarPVmodulesandLEDs,thesemiconductorindustry ismuchhardertocrackgiventhelongsupplychainandhighly-pro- tectedintellectualproperty.SotheChinesegovernmentssubsi- dies and private equity investments have not l

28、ifted the countrys semiconductorindustryintoapositionofgloballeadership,ashave solar andLEDs.Chinassemiconductorindustrytoevolve,webelievethementalquestionsthatmustbeaddressedare:Whatshouldthemainfocusbeinvestinginchipdesignincreasingproduction?Islocalizationorglobalizationthebestwaytoachievetivesel

29、f-sufficiency?will shape four possible outcomesRegardingthefirstquestion,wethinkthekeytoadvancingtheevolu- tion of Chinas semiconductor industry clearly lies in chip ratherthanpursuinglarge-scale,low-marginmanufacturing.itanotherChinesesemiconductorfirmsmustprioritizetheproductoverthemeansofproducti

30、on.Asthesecondquestion,thecurrenttendencyistowardlocaliza- tion(investinginanddependingonChinasowntechnology)globalization (leveraging foreign technology through M&A, ventures,andlicensing).Localizationcouldproveveryrewardingbut also carries significantrisks.Withallthisinmind,weseefourpotentialscena

31、riostheindustrys evolution, ranked from what we view as most favorable to favorable:Industry Upgrade China achieves technologybreakthroughs andhighefficiencyinchipmanufacturingTheNewBreed(ourbasecase)Thesearecompaniesthatbine hardware and software in chip design, while maintaining selective capabili

32、ties in chipmanufacturing.GlobalCommoditizationChinagainsafootholdinglobalmanufacturing,withmoreandoverseasM&Abutlimitedinno- vation in chipdesign.BudgetSubstituteChinesecompaniesfailtoinnovate;localsupplychainfocusesonproductionoflow-valueductors.Thetradeimbalanceofsemisshouldntthe coreproblemTheus

33、ualwaytomeasureChinasself-sufficiencyinisthroughasimplecomparisonofimportsandexports.However,thinktheresultingdeficitaroundUS$227bnin2017makessituationlookworsethanitis,becauseChinaimportsmostofthose semiconductorsuseinproductsthatarethenexportedAlso,thereissomeconfusionaboutclassifyingimportsfromth

34、easdescribedinareportbyourUSsemiconductoranalystJoein HYPERLINK /eqr/article/webapp/923492a2-308e-11e9-bf97-dd6aceba4315?ch=rpint&sch=ar Semiconductors:ContextonpotentialChinasemiconductor HYPERLINK /eqr/article/webapp/923492a2-308e-11e9-bf97-dd6aceba4315?ch=rpint&sch=ar chase commitments (19 2019).

35、believe it is more effective to evaluate the self-sufficiency Chinastechsupplychain.measurethisbylookingathowofthedemandfromChinassystembrandcompaniescanbebydomesticICdesigncompanies.TheUS$77bnsemicomponentdemandfromsystembrandsismuchlowerthanwhatimportdata wouldsuggest,butstillweseeaninsufficientsu

36、pplyfromlocaldesigncompanieswitharounda16%self-sufficiencyratio.Why the product is more important productionChinassemiconductorcompaniesaccount3.5%ofglobalconductoroutputinvalueterms.Whileitistruethatsemiconductor manufacturinghasthepotentialtocontributemoretoChinasGDP andreduceitsdependenceonimport

37、sintheshortterm,weseetermriskstoanapproachthatfavorsproduction.acknowledgethatbuildingfabsisthefastestwaytoboostChinas globalmarketshareinsemiconductors.However,chipscanbepro- ducedinanycleanroomglobally,whichmeansthatanybusinesssourcedtoChinesefabscouldeasilybemovedbackoverseas.Exhibit 9:Chinas sem

38、iconductor imports and exports350,000300,000250,000(US$ mn)200,000(US$ mn)150,000100,00050,000-2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018China semi export(A;US$mn)China semi import(B;US$mn) Sufficiency Ratio(%)Source: WIND, Morgan Stanley ResearchExhibit 10:Conve

39、ntional view of self-sufficiency is based on the Trade Balance method40%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%buildasupplychainthatwillbesustainableoverthe longterm,webelieveChinesesemiconductorcompa- niesneedtofocusmoreonchipdesign(theproduct) than on building fabs (production). believe recent success stories illu

40、strate the potential of approach:Bitmain,aBitcoinminingchipdesigncompanyin China,increasedrevenuefromUS$100mn2016toUS$600mninreachingoverglobal marketshare.ThewirelesscommunicationchipdesignHiSilicongeneratedUS$5bnofrevenueinthe mainstream 4G smartphone chip Spreadtrum, earned US$1.5bn of revenue Th

41、e touch panel controller IC design house Goodix has successfully transitioned to product cycles when disruptive haveemerged(e.g,opticalfingerprintsensors).Source: Morgan Stanley ResearchOur Perspective: Self-sufficiency based on the China Tech Hardware Ecosystem methodSource: Morgan Stanley Research

42、What are the most immediate and disruptivetrendsthatmaybenefitsemis?While transistors continue to shrink per Moores and couldinvestincapacityleading-edgenodes(e.g.,SMICandthereturnsonsuchendeavorswouldlikelybepoor,asTSMCandSamsungdominatethespace,havinginvestedsignificant capex/R&D over the pastdeca

43、de.asnoted,tobuildalong-termsustainablesemiindustry,think China should differentiate itself by focusing on chipsystemintegration,anddisruptivetechnologies.Chinaisalready hometosuccessfulICdesigncompanieslikeHiSilicon,Bitmain,Goodix,andwebelievetherewillbemoretocome.example:ASICdesign(software+hardwa

44、reintegration)forAIApplication-specificintegratedcircuits(ASICs)arewidespread.TheBitcoinminingASICisarecentwhereChinahadasmuchas60%marketsharegloballyAIapplicationsarebecomingthenewwavesoftware+hardwareintegrationchipdesign.Localcompanies like Cambricon and Robotic Horizon aremovers,whileinternetgia

45、ntsBaidu,Alibaba,andhaveallstartedtoinvestinrelatedchipdesign.3DNANDinmemory:Thistechnologyhasbeendisrupting theNANDindustryoverthepasttwoyearsbyreducinggigabit density cost by at least half paving the way Chinese memory companies such as YMTC to enter memory market. Notably, YMTC has invented its X

46、-stackingtechnique,whichputsNANDcellsandI/Oarrays ontwoseparatedies,whicharethenpackagedtogetheronsinglechip.Heterogeneouschipintegration(incontrasttofurther geometricmigration):Thisisalsocalled“morethananditintegratessemiconductorsatthechippackaginglevel, insteadofbyusinglarge-scaleintegration(LSI,

47、theprocessintegratingorembeddingthousandsoftransistorsonasingle siliconInthisfield,JCETistheleadingcompanyChina,althoughthereisstillatechnologygapvs.globallike ASE andAmkor.PursuingsuchdevelopmentsinthesemiconductorindustryrequiremoreinvestmentinR&Dinsteadofcontinuingtopumpcapex.Pleasesee HYPERLINK

48、l _bookmark2 Appendix1:Potentialbreakthroughpointsfor HYPERLINK l _bookmark2 Chinasemis more.Besidesthosenewtechnologytrends,wealsoseeingnewbusinessmodelssuchasCommuneIDMhappening inChina.ThetablebelowlistsChinesesemiconductorcompanieswithtial,andtheirclosestglobalandTaiwanindustrycounterparts.refer

49、tothesecompaniesassemi-paniesthatnewtechnologiesorbusinessmodels,andwhichwecannotmanysimilarsoutsideofChina,wecallthemthenewbreed.Exhibit 12:China semi-similars and the new breedCompanyTickerProductGlobalcounterpartTaiwan counterpart TypeA-shareGoodix603160.SSIC designSynapticsEgisNew BreedUSI601231

50、.SSModuleMurataNew BreedJCET600584.SSBackend foundryAmkorASETongfu002156.SSBackend foundryAmkorASETianshui Huatian002185.SSBackend foundryAmkorASEGigaDevice603986.SSNOR/MCUCypressMacronixSinyang300236.SZChemicalSumcoGWCSilan600460.SSPower ICSTMicroGMTNationZ300077.SSSmartcard ICNXPNAURA002371.SZSemi

51、 equipmentApplied MaterialsAll-RingWLCSP603005.SSTesting & packagingAmkorXintecH-shareSMIC0981.HKFoundryGlobalfoundriesUMCHHGrace1347.HKFoundryGlobalfoundriesVanguardHuada Semi0085.HKSmartcard ICNXPUS listedAlpha & OmegaAOSL.OPower DiscreteON SemiACMACMR.OEquipmentApplied MaterialsTaiwan listedSiler

52、gy6415.TWIC designTexas InstrumentMediaTekNew BreedFocal Tech3545.TWIC designSynapticsNovatekPrivateBitmainIC designBitfuryNew BreedCambriconAI SemiWave ComputingNew BreedRobotic HorizonAI SemiWave ComputingNew BreedYMTCMemory IDMMicronNanya TechNew BreedZhaoxinx86 CPUIntelVIANew BreedSiEnCommune ID

53、MGlobalfoundriesPowerchipNew BreedHiSiliconIC designQualcommMediaTekSpreadtrumIC designQualcommMediaTekAmlogicIC designActions SemiRockchipIC designMediaTekVimicroIC designQualcommMediaTekActions SemiIC designQualcommMediaTekBCDPower ICMaximRichtekSan-An ICGaAs foundrySkyworksWIN SemiAMECEquipmentAp

54、plied MaterialsChipONEIC designSkyworksNovatekOmnivisionCMOSON SemiHimaxGalaxyCoreCMOSON SemiHimaxSGITSmart meter, chargerMaximSource: Gartner, company data, Morgan Stanley ResearchHowmighttheseoutcomesreshapeglobal semiindustry?thinktheevolutionofChinassemiindustrywillgenerallybetivetheglobalsemieq

55、uipmentsector.Inanyofthethreesce- nariosIndustryUpgrade,NewBreed,GlobalCommoditizationexpect Chinas capex to increase from 2019 (YMTCs 64-layerprocesscapacityinvestmentislikelytocomefirst).theNewBreedscenario,leading-edgeSoCdesignactivitybyChinas ICdesignerswouldlikelyburgeonoverthelongerterm.Thebri

56、skerleading-edgeSoCdesignactivitywouldfueldemandexpansionphotomask-relatedmaterialsandproductionequipment.Outsideoftheequipmentsegment,itcouldbeazero-sumgame. Chinaistheworldslargestandfastest-growingmarketsemicon- ductors,butgiventhatnoChinesechipmakerhasbrokenintothetop 15globallyintermsofsales,th

57、eimplicationsincumbentplayers islikelytobemeaningfulovertime.Chinaposesstrategicriskstothe KoreanmemorysegmentandTaiwanslogicandback-endindustries. Thiscanalreadybeseenintheramp-upofChinesepurchasesofcision machinery itsfactories.Exhibit 13:Global implications of our four scenariosScenario1Industry

58、Upgrade2The New Breed3Budget Substitute4CommoditizationSemi industrys focus areaDesign / R&DDesign / R&DManufacturing / capexManufacturing / capexSemi industrys overall directionGlobalizationLocalizationLocalizationGlobalizationImplications for China semisWinnersIC Design, Foundry, OSAT, MemoryHigh-

59、end IC Design, NAND, OSATOSAT, Semi Cap, ChemicalLow-end IC Design, OSAT, SemiCapLosersSemi CapSemi CapIC Design, MemoryHigh-end IC Design, FoundryImplications for global semisImplications for global semisWinnersGlobal Semi CapJapan Semi Cap, Design Service,IPOverseas IC Design, Memory,Analog IDMUS

60、and Japan Semi CapImpact on overseas peersLosersGlobal IC Design, NAND, Analog IDM, DiscretesImpact on overseas peersLogic chip design Wafer OSAT DRAe e P Analog/RF/Power discret Semi equipment/RawP Design service/Photomask/IUS IC Design, NANDSecond-tier Foundry, OSATSecond-tier Foundry, Memory,y M