萊坊-Q4《上海寫字樓市場(chǎng)》報(bào)告

1、研究報(bào)告RESEARCH研究報(bào)告SHANGHAIOFFICE mArkEt rEpOrt Q4 2018上海寫字樓市場(chǎng)報(bào)告 2018年 第四季度SHAngHAi OFFiCE MARKET REPORT Q4RESEARCHlEASING DEmAND FOr FINANCE AND r INtEllIGENCE SECtOrS AS rObUSt IN Q4a .elwyn8sarENtS ANDprICESIn by of in to of in 66 on of inin toFIGUrE 1Grade-A office rental and price indices500a as i

2、n to by Souce: knight Frank reseachAblE 2Major Grade-A office sub-market indicators, Q4 2018SubmarketRentRent%change(RMB / sqm/day)(QoQ)rateSubmarketVacancy rate percentage point change (QoQ)LittleLujiazui13.25.1%7.8% 2.9 amaximum amount of RMB20 million as onecapital of over RMB100 million located

3、inMiddle Roadof the financial incentives. There are overXuhui Binjiang. YITU Technology pre-leasedXujiahui7.4 maximum amount of RMB20 million as onecapital of over RMB100 million located inMiddle Roadof the financial incentives. There are overXuhui Binjiang. YITU Technology pre-leasedXujiahui7.4 4.8

4、%3.2% 2.1a Nanjing RoadHuaihaiThe Century11.02.2%3.0%0.810.33.8%2.1% in Longhua International Phase Two.in is to or by Avenue9.46.7%18.1% 2.5Souce: knight Frank reseachAblE 3Major Grade-A office leasing transactions, Q4 2018headquarters in China. The increasingThe strong growth of emerging sectors,

5、DistrictXuhuiBuildingLonghua International Phase TwoZoneHighArea (sqm)18,000PudongCentury Link Tower TwoDistrictXuhuiBuildingLonghua International Phase TwoZoneHighArea (sqm)18,000PudongCentury Link Tower TwoHigh2,500in in AblE 1area, thus pushed up the average rent toan a of in In the primary strat

6、a-title sales market,Souce: knight Frank reseachNote: all transactions are subject to confirmationAblE 4Major Grade-A office strata-title sales transactions, Q4 DistrictBuildingFloor/unitAreaUnit PriceShanghai Grade-A office market indicatorsthe average office transaction price(sqm)(RMB / sqm)(Q1 In

7、dicatorQ42018figureQQ change(Q1 New supply360,180sqm 147%in Shanghai increased significantly by 10.6% QoQ to RMB72,427 per sqm in Q4. The office portion of Fuxing Plot inMinhangMacrolink InternationalCentreGreenland Centre 3rd floor unit67060,000PriceRMB72,427 / sqmPriceRMB72,427 / sqm10.6%RentRMB9.

8、7 / sqm / day2.1%XuhuiTwo12th floor unit35265,344Vacancy rate9.9% 0.2percentagepointfor sale in Q4. The average transaction price of this project reached RMB73,000 per sqm, contributing most to theHuangpuOffice portion FuxingPlot7th floor unit1,50074,138Souce: knight Frank reseachsubstantial increas

9、e in strata-title sales price in Q4.Souce: Shanghai real Estate trading Centre / knight Frank researchNote: all transactions are subject to confirmation23上海寫字樓市場(chǎng)報(bào)告 2018 年第四季度研究報(bào)告SUppY AND DEmANDAs the only office building launched in四季度金融、人工智能等行業(yè)租賃需求旺盛Core CBDs in Q4, Foxconn Building in Little Luji

10、azui, Pudong was completed and added 70,000 sqm of office space the market.The vacancy rate in Little Lujiazui increased by 2.9 percentage points to 7.8% due to the launch of new officeFIGUrE 2Grade-A office supply, take-up and vacancy rateoffice office net(left)Vacancy 000sqm1,8001,6001,40018%16%14

11、%年全年新增供應(yīng)約為122萬平方米，同比下降21%。projects.Other new supplies include the Hongqiao Gate in Hongqiao CBD which brought approximately 73,000- sqm office space to the market, and the Office Park developed by CIFI in Xinzhuang business district with an office GFA of 29,000 sqm.In Q4, the office leasing demand o

12、f new energy and pharmaceutical sectors0200820092010201120122013201520162017201812%10%8%6%4%2%0%第四季度，上海甲級(jí)寫字樓市場(chǎng)平均租金環(huán)比上漲2.1%至每天每平方米人民幣9.7 元。核心商務(wù)區(qū)市場(chǎng)平均租金也有所上漲至每天每平方米人民幣11.8元。生產(chǎn)服務(wù)行業(yè)例如金融保險(xiǎn)、咨詢、律所的寫字樓租賃需求有所回升，而人工智能、新能源以及醫(yī)藥等行業(yè)在第四季度依自9月份在徐匯濱江召開世界人工智能大會(huì)后，上海在加速推動(dòng)人工智能技術(shù)應(yīng)用和發(fā)展方面不遺余力。從人才引進(jìn)和培養(yǎng)、財(cái)政補(bǔ)貼以及其它政策支持等多方面扶持rema

13、ined strong. Envision Energypre-leased 38,000 sqm of office space in IM Shanghai. Smith&Nephew, a pharmaceutical company based in UK,moved from the Headquarters Building to One Museum Place, renting 4,000 sqm of office space.Souce: knight Frank reseachThe net absorption in Shanghais Grade-A office m

14、arket reached approximately 366,000 sqm in Q4 while that in 2018 amounted to approximately 0.84 million sqm. The vacancy rate in Puxi decreasedslightlyby0.6percentagepointtowhile that in Pudong increased by 0.5 percentage point to 10.8% due to the new officecompletions.然保持著旺盛的租賃需求。第四季度，上海甲級(jí)寫字樓市場(chǎng)整體空置

15、率環(huán)比下降0.2 個(gè)百分點(diǎn)至9.9%。第四季度，總計(jì)30家跨國(guó)企業(yè)在上海新設(shè)立地區(qū)總部，上海累計(jì)引進(jìn)跨國(guó)公司地區(qū)總部達(dá)到665家，其中亞太區(qū)總部85家。優(yōu)越的地理位置以及良好的營(yíng)商環(huán)境使得計(jì)劃進(jìn)入中國(guó)市場(chǎng)的外資企業(yè)將上海作為人工智能企業(yè)在上海的成長(zhǎng)，例如對(duì)重點(diǎn)扶持的項(xiàng)目給予單個(gè)項(xiàng)目最高人民幣2,000 萬元的財(cái)政支持。目前上海人工智能企業(yè)已超過400家，在浦西漕河涇、徐匯濱江以及浦東張江地區(qū)已經(jīng)形成集聚效應(yīng)。展望2019年第一季度，我們預(yù)計(jì)上海寫字樓市場(chǎng)租金將保持平穩(wěn)。近兩年新出現(xiàn)行業(yè)的租賃需求，例如聯(lián)合辦公、人工智能tt設(shè)立企業(yè)地區(qū)總部的首選。越來越多的跨國(guó)公司總部機(jī)構(gòu)推動(dòng)甲級(jí)寫字樓市場(chǎng)租賃

16、需求穩(wěn)步增長(zhǎng)。及新能源等能否持續(xù)穩(wěn)定增長(zhǎng)將成為影響市場(chǎng)走向的重要因素。此外，2019年預(yù)計(jì)將有超過250萬平方米的寫字樓新增面積入In Q4, Shanghais investment market was active, recording 11 en-bloc transactions for a total consideration of approximately RMB30.5 billion. Commercial mixed-use properties are the major asset class transacted in Q4. Purchasers are mai

17、nly developers and investment funds.Foreign funds and developers have shown confidence in Shanghais propertyinvestment market. CapitaLand, together with GIC, acquired Shanghai Star Harbour International Centre in Hongkou North Bund Area for approximately RMB12.8 billion. Star Harbour International C

18、entre has a total GFA of approximately 420,000 sqm, comprising two fifty-storey office buildings with a seven-storey shopping mall.Gaw Capital purchased Ocean Towers of a total GFA of 50,219 sqm in Peoples Square with consortium partners QuadReal Property Group from ARA Asset Management Limited. It

19、was the second time Ocean Towers has been transacted after it was sold by Group to ARA Asset Management Limited in 2013.表一上海甲級(jí)寫字樓市場(chǎng)參考指標(biāo)市，主要分布在浦東前灘、虹口北外灘以及徐匯濱江，大量新供的出現(xiàn)對(duì)于這些區(qū)域的租金上漲產(chǎn)生壓力。新增供應(yīng)360,180平方米147%（2019年第一季）新增供應(yīng)360,180平方米147%（2019年第一季）租金人民幣9.7元/平方米/天2.1%空置率9.9%0.2 個(gè)百分點(diǎn)價(jià)格人民幣72,427元/平方米10.6%資料來源：萊坊

20、研究部45上海寫字樓市場(chǎng)報(bào)告 2018 年第四季度研究報(bào)告租金及價(jià)格其中南京西路以及小陸家嘴的平均租金在2.2%和至每13.211,0002,500圖一甲級(jí)寫字樓租金及價(jià)格指數(shù)供應(yīng)與需求第四季度，位于浦東小陸家嘴的富士康大廈竣工交付，為市場(chǎng)帶來70,000平方米的辦公面積，這也是本季度核心商務(wù)區(qū)唯一竣工交付的新項(xiàng)目。小陸家嘴地區(qū)市場(chǎng)空置率也因?yàn)樾马?xiàng)目的入市環(huán)比增加2.9個(gè)百分點(diǎn)至7.8%。位于虹橋商務(wù)區(qū)的虹橋匯在第四季度推出剩余面積，為寫字樓市場(chǎng)帶來約73,000平圖二甲級(jí)寫字樓供應(yīng)量、吸納量及空置率 1,8001,6001,4001,2001,00018%16%14%12%10%本季度有大租

21、戶搬離，業(yè)主降租去化空置面方米的辦公面積。由旭輝開發(fā)的位于莘莊8%導(dǎo)致第四度租金環(huán)下跌3.8%至每天50商務(wù)區(qū)的旭輝莘莊中心也在第四季度竣工6%每平方米人民幣10.3元。2.4%至每天0資料來源：萊坊研究部交付，總辦公建筑面積為29,000平方米。新能源以及醫(yī)藥行業(yè)在第四季度依然保持旺盛的租賃需求。遠(yuǎn)景能源預(yù)租了長(zhǎng)寧國(guó)際38,000平方米的辦公面積。總部位于英02008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 4%2%0%2018 世博在第四季度的平均租金分別環(huán)比上漲2.6%和6.8元和7.5元。18,000表二甲級(jí)寫字樓各細(xì)分市場(chǎng)參考指標(biāo)，2

22、018年第四季度區(qū)域（人民幣/平方米/天）環(huán)比變幅環(huán)比變幅（百分點(diǎn)）區(qū)域（人民幣/平方米/天）環(huán)比變幅環(huán)比變幅（百分點(diǎn)）第四季度，上海甲級(jí)寫字樓市場(chǎng)凈吸納面?zhèn)€百分點(diǎn)至9.3%；而浦東由于新項(xiàng)目竣工小陸家嘴13.2 5.1%7.8%2.9積約為366,000平方米，而全年上海甲級(jí)寫交付使得空置率有所增加，市場(chǎng)空置率環(huán)南京西路11.0 2.2%3.0%0.8字樓市場(chǎng)凈吸納面積約為84萬平方米。浦比增加0.5個(gè)百分點(diǎn)至10.8%?；春Ｖ新?0.3 3.8%2.1%徐家匯7.4 4.8%3.2%2.1世紀(jì)大道9.4 6.7%18.1%2.5空置率空置率國(guó)的醫(yī)藥企業(yè)施樂輝從人民廣場(chǎng)的都市總部大廈搬遷至博

23、華廣場(chǎng)，租用了4,000平方米的辦公面積。資料來源：萊坊研究部西市場(chǎng)表現(xiàn)穩(wěn)定，市場(chǎng)空置率小幅下降0.612,000租金環(huán)比上漲6.7%2,500約56,000平方米的辦公面積。該項(xiàng)目的平均成交價(jià)在每平方米人民幣73,000元，推高了區(qū)域閔行項(xiàng)目約56,000平方米的辦公面積。該項(xiàng)目的平均成交價(jià)在每平方米人民幣73,000元，推高了區(qū)域閔行項(xiàng)目新華聯(lián)國(guó)際中心樓層/單元3層單元面積（平方米）670成交單價(jià) (人民幣/平方米)60,000整體散售市場(chǎng)的平均價(jià)格。徐匯上海綠地國(guó)際廣場(chǎng)二期12層單元35265,344黃浦復(fù)興地塊寫字樓項(xiàng)目7層單元1,50074,138資料來源：萊坊研究部表三甲級(jí)寫字樓主

24、要租賃成交，2018年第四季度區(qū)域項(xiàng)目樓層面積（平方米）徐匯徐匯浦東龍華國(guó)際二期世紀(jì)匯二號(hào)樓高區(qū)高區(qū)18,0002,500資料來源：萊坊研究部 注：所有成交均有待落實(shí)表四甲級(jí)寫字樓主要散售成交，2018年第四季度投資市場(chǎng)第四季度，上海投資市場(chǎng)表現(xiàn)非?；钴S， 共錄得11宗整購(gòu)交易，總投資金額大約在人民幣305億元。商辦綜合物業(yè)是本季度成交的主要物業(yè)類型，買家以開發(fā)商和基金為主。外資基金及發(fā)展商依然看好上海投資市場(chǎng)。凱德集團(tuán)聯(lián)合新加坡政府投資以人民幣約128億元收購(gòu)位于虹口北外灘星港國(guó)際中心項(xiàng)目。該項(xiàng)目由2幢50層的寫字樓和7層的購(gòu)物中心組成，總建筑面積約為420,000平方米?；鶇R資本聯(lián)合Qua

25、dReal Property Group， 從亞騰資產(chǎn)管理手中收購(gòu)位于人民廣場(chǎng)海洋大廈，總建筑面積達(dá)50,219平方米。這是海洋大廈在2013年被騰飛集團(tuán)出售給亞騰資產(chǎn)管理后，再度被交易。資料來源：上海房地產(chǎn)交易中心/萊坊研究部注：所有成交均有待落實(shí)67Knight Frank Research provides strategic advice, consultancy services and forecasting to a wide range of clients worldwide, including developers and investors, as well as fi

26、nancial and corporate institutions. All recognise the need for the provision of expert independent advice, customised to their specific needs.萊坊研究團(tuán)隊(duì)向眾多商業(yè)和住宅物業(yè)客戶，包括發(fā)展商、投資者、金融機(jī)構(gòu)和企業(yè)機(jī)構(gòu)提供策略性建議、市場(chǎng)預(yù)測(cè)和顧問服務(wù)?？蛻艟J(rèn)為我們按其特定需要提供的專業(yè)和獨(dú)立意見能切合他們的需要。rECENtmArkEt-lEADINGrESEArCHpUblICAtIONS近期市場(chǎng)研究報(bào)告 HYPERLINK /research/1

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