美國半導(dǎo)體產(chǎn)業(yè)Q4預(yù)覽

1、COREU.S. Semiconductors4Q18 Preview: Buy the Second Cut? Bottom is Near but Coast is Not ClearWeCanSeeaBottomforManybutTradeCloudsSetup:ThesetupintothisearningsINDUSTRY UPDATEU.S. Semiconductors NEUTRAL UnchangedEquityResearch17 January2019periodisdifficultaswearetemptedtobebullishasmanynamesareclos

2、etoabottom, but still too much trade/tariff overhang for any sustained rally in the group.We understandwhythecompellingrelativevaluationmayattractinterestfrombuyerswho forthemostpartavoidedthegroupin2018,butareconcernedthattheoverhangwill takelongertoresolve,andevenwitharesolution,thatlonger-termpro

3、blemshave developed(Chinaeconomyweaker,supplychainmovementcausinghighercostbasis, accelerationofChinadomesticinvestment,etc).Withthatsaid,wearestickingwitha fewnamessuchasAVGO,IPHI,MRVL,NXPI,andQCOM,whicheithertradeatasharp discountsand/orhavecompanyspecificdriver/catalysts,whichshouldmakethem lookb

4、etteras2020estimatescomeintofocus.AnalogHastheMostCorrectionStilltoGo:TheIndustrialandAutomarketsareatthe centerofcyclicalfearsandthetradesituationonlycompoundsanycorrection.In HYPERLINK l _bookmark4 Figure HYPERLINK l _bookmark4 8,wehighlightthefallinPMIattheendoftheyear,whichisnotyetreflectedin fo

5、rwardestimatesfortheAnaloggroup.Clearlysomeofthesenamesarethecleanest businessmodelsinsemis,butwejustdontseeupsidegiventheytradeat16-18x forwardEPSwithearningspotentiallygoingdownanother5-10%.5GtheThemetoPlayfor19:Wecantsolveforthecyclical/tradefearsbutdobelieve namesleveredtotheComm.shouldfarebette

6、r,with5Gamaterialdriverforseveralof ournamesincludingMRVLandQCOM.XLNXandADIalsohavestrongleveragetothis trend.ForMRVLspecifically,webelieveits5Gstoryisunderappreciatedwith$2000of incrementalcontentperbasestationandopportunitiestogainmaterialshare.COHRdowngradetoEW,fromOW:OLEDfabbuildsarestilldelayed

7、andweexpect thatthesofterhandsetenvironmentfurtherpushesouttimelines.TheslowerOLED ramphurtsthetopline,butevenwiththerevenueresetinFY19,opexshouldmove higher(meritincreasesandpromotion),whichhamperstheprospectofanearnings recoveryasmarginsimproveinthe2H.Further,weexpectIndustrialweaknesstolinger thr

8、ough2019astariffandshare-shiftscontinuetobeaheadwindintheIndustrial Laserbusiness,whichhasunderperformedsincetheRofinacquisition.PTmovesto$125 from $162.QTNAdowngradetoUW,fromEW:WeacknowledgeQTNAhasasuperiorWLAN productbutthepointhereisthebestsolutiondoesnotalwayswininvolumeandwe haveseenlittletract

9、ionforWave3outsideofitsoriginalwins.Near-term,weseeriskto the10Gramp,givenArrisshiftofproductionfacilitiesoutofChinathatshouldcreate 1H19noise,andquestionwhetherthe2H18rampincludedanyArrisbuildaheadofthe move.TheupsidecaseforQTNAhadassumedComcastwouldmovealldeployments totheXB6gatewaybutwebelieveXB6

10、isonlybeingdeployedat400MB+,indicating XB3isthemajorityofthevolume. Lastly,QTNAstillrecognizesthemajorityofits revenuefromWave2solutions,whichshouldcomeunderpressureasWiFi6isrolled outingreatervolume.PTmovesto$14from$17.Forafulllistofourratings,pricetargetand earningschangesinthisreport,pleasesee ta

11、bleonpage2.U.S. Semiconductors Blayne Curtis+1 617 342 4101 HYPERLINK mailto:blayne.curtis blayne.curtis BCI, USThomas OMalley+1 212 526 0692 HYPERLINK mailto:thomas.o%27malley thomas.omalley BCI, USMatthew Hamel+1 212 526 9898 HYPERLINK mailto:matthew.hamel matthew.hamel BCI, USCapitalInc.oneofdoes

12、andseekstodoinitsresearchAsabeawarethatthe mayhaveaofthattheofthisconsiderthisasonlyafactorinmakingtheirPLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATION(S) AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES BEGINNING ON PAGE 83.CompanyRatingPricePriceTargetEPSFY1CompanyRatingPricePriceTargetEPSFY1(E)EPS FY2(E)Old New 16-Jan-19 OldNew %Chg

13、Old New %Chg Old New%ChgU.S. SemiconductorsNeu Neu HYPERLINK /BC/composite/GER_COMPANY?ticker=AMD Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)EWEW19.7325.0021.00-160.450.45-0.500.42-16 HYPERLINK /BC/composite/GER_COMPANY?ticker=ADI Analog Devices (ADI)EWEW87.0097.00102.0055.625.49-2N/A6.03- HYPERLINK /BC/composite/

14、GER_COMPANY?ticker=AQ Aquantia Corp (AQ)OWOW8.3513.0012.00-80.010.01-0.300.28-7 HYPERLINK /BC/composite/GER_COMPANY?ticker=AVGO Broadcom Inc. (AVGO)OWOW251.70265.00 265.00-22.7222.14-3N/A 25.26- HYPERLINK /BC/composite/GER_COMPANY?ticker=CRUS Cirrus Logic Inc. (CRUS)UWUW35.7030.00 30.00-2.59 2.59-2.

15、37 2.33-2 HYPERLINK /BC/composite/GER_COMPANY?ticker=COHR Coherent Inc. (COHR)OWEW116.76162.00 125.00-23 10.25 9.29-914.1511.89-16 HYPERLINK /BC/composite/GER_COMPANY?ticker=CY Cypress Semiconductor Corp. (CY)EWEW13.0515.0015.00-1.331.33-1.271.16-9 HYPERLINK /BC/composite/GER_COMPANY?ticker=IPHI Inp

16、hi Corporation (IPHI)OWOW35.0040.0040.00-0.820.82-1.691.67-1 HYPERLINK /BC/composite/GER_COMPANY?ticker=IDTI Integrated Device Technology, Inc. (IDTI)EWEW48.3949.0049.00-1.831.83-2.012.01- HYPERLINK /BC/composite/GER_COMPANY?ticker=INTC Intel Corp. (INTC)UWUW48.1340.0040.00-4.534.53-4.564.53-1 HYPER

17、LINK /BC/composite/GER_COMPANY?ticker=LITE Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE)OWOW45.6948.0052.0084.644.64-5.325.330 HYPERLINK /BC/composite/GER_COMPANY?ticker=MTSI MACOMTechnologySolutionsHoldings,Inc.(MTSI)EWEW16.3018.0016.00-111.010.90-11N/A1.23- HYPERLINK /BC/composite/GER_COMPANY?ticker=MRVL Marvell

18、Technology Group, Ltd. (MRVL)OWOW16.6423.0023.00-1.431.25-13N/A1.41- HYPERLINK /BC/composite/GER_COMPANY?ticker=MXIM Maxim Integrated Products (MXIM)EWEW52.0655.0050.00-92.742.61-53.172.64-17 HYPERLINK /BC/composite/GER_COMPANY?ticker=MU Micron Technology, Inc. (MU)OWOW33.5846.0040.00-138.737.92-9N/

19、A6.63- HYPERLINK /BC/composite/GER_COMPANY?ticker=NVDA NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA)OWOW148.84250.00200.00-206.416.41-7.046.30-11 HYPERLINK /BC/composite/GER_COMPANY?ticker=NXPI NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI)OWOW78.3495.0095.00-7.147.14-8.978.36-7 HYPERLINK /BC/composite/GER_COMPANY?ticker=QRVO Qorvo Inc. (QRVO

20、)OWOW61.4175.0075.00-5.965.75-47.096.81-4 HYPERLINK /BC/composite/GER_COMPANY?ticker=QCOM QUALCOMM, Inc. (QCOM)OWOW55.2787.0070.00-203.843.60-64.514.22-6 HYPERLINK /BC/composite/GER_COMPANY?ticker=QTNA Quantenna Communications, Inc. (QTNA)EWUW15.4917.0014.00-180.510.51-0.920.79-14 HYPERLINK /BC/comp

21、osite/GER_COMPANY?ticker=SLAB Silicon Laboratories, Inc. (SLAB)EWEW86.2490.0090.00-3.743.74-4.013.89-3 HYPERLINK /BC/composite/GER_COMPANY?ticker=SWKS Skyworks Solutions, Inc. (SWKS)OWOW68.8075.0075.00-6.967.061N/A7.77- HYPERLINK /BC/composite/GER_COMPANY?ticker=SGH Smart Global Holdings, Inc. (SGH)

22、OWOW22.9738.0038.00-4.194.19-4.414.41- HYPERLINK /BC/composite/GER_COMPANY?ticker=TXN Texas Instruments, Inc. (TXN)EWEW97.17105.00105.00-5.575.5605.695.25-8 HYPERLINK /BC/composite/GER_COMPANY?ticker=XLNX Xilinx, Inc. (XLNX)EWEW90.4975.0090.00203.303.30-3.633.61-1Source:BarclaysResearch.Sharepricesa

23、ndtargetpricesareshownintheprimarylistingcurrencyandEPSestimatesareshowninthereportingcurrency. FY1(E):CurrentfiscalyearestimatesbyBarclaysResearch.FY2(E):NextfiscalyearestimatesbyBarclaysResearch.StockRating:OW:Overweight;EW:EqualWeight;UW:Underweight;RS:RatingSuspended IndustryView:Pos:Positive;Ne

24、u:Neutral;Neg:NegativeCONTENTS HYPERLINK l _bookmark0 4Q18Preview:BuytheSecondCut?BottomisNearbutCoastisNotClear4 HYPERLINK l _bookmark1 MostCompaniesPullBackin2018onBackHalfWeakness8 HYPERLINK l _bookmark2 SemisUnderperformMarketandBroaderTechin20189 HYPERLINK l _bookmark3 GlobalPMIFallsSharplyasGr

25、owthSlowsandTrade/BrexitWorriesLoom11 HYPERLINK l _bookmark5 RFMarket:GrowthHasntLivedUpToExpectations,19CycleLikelyMuchoftheSame12 HYPERLINK l _bookmark6 PCs Soften into Year-end while Server Growth Decelerates; Memory Over-Supply Brings HYPERLINK l _bookmark6 ProductionForecastReset HYPERLINK l _b

26、ookmark7 BarclaysEstimatesHeadingintoEarnings16 HYPERLINK l _bookmark8 EarningsSchedule18 HYPERLINK l _bookmark9 AMDReports4Q18Tuesday,January29th19 HYPERLINK l _bookmark10 AquantiaReports4Q18Monday,February4th(E)21 HYPERLINK l _bookmark11 CirrusLogicReportsC4Q18Wednesday,January30th23 HYPERLINK l _

27、bookmark12 CoherentReportsC4Q18Tuesday,January29th25 HYPERLINK l _bookmark13 CypressReports4Q18Thursday,January31st27 HYPERLINK l _bookmark14 InphiReports4Q18Tuesday,January29th29 HYPERLINK l _bookmark15 IntelReports4Q18Thursday,January24th31 HYPERLINK l _bookmark16 LumentumReports4CQ18Tuesday,Febru

28、ary5th(E)33 HYPERLINK l _bookmark17 MACOMReportsC4Q18Tuesday,February5th35 HYPERLINK l _bookmark18 MaximReportsC4Q18Tuesday,January29th37 HYPERLINK l _bookmark19 NXPReportsC4Q18Wednesday,January30th(E)39 HYPERLINK l _bookmark20 QorvoReportsC4Q18Wednesday,January30th(E)41 HYPERLINK l _bookmark21 Qual

29、commReportsC4Q18Wednesday,January30th(E)43 HYPERLINK l _bookmark22 QuantennaReports4Q18Monday,February11th(E)45 HYPERLINK l _bookmark23 LabsReports4Q1830th48 HYPERLINK l _bookmark24 SkyworksReportsC4Q18Tuesday,February5th50 HYPERLINK l _bookmark25 TexasInstrumentsReports4Q18Wednesday,January23rd52 H

30、YPERLINK l _bookmark26 XilinxReportsC4Q18Wednesday,January23rd544Q18Preview:BuytheSecondCut?BottomisNearbutCoast is NotClearWeCanSeeaBottomforManybutTradeCloudstheSetup:Thesetupintothisearnings periodisdifficultaswearetemptedtobebullishasmanynamesareclosetoabottom,but stilltoomuchtrade/tariffoverhan

31、gforanysustainedrallyinthegroup.Weunderstandwhy thecompellingrelativevaluationmayattractinterestfrombuyerswhoforthemostpart avoidedthegroupin2018,butareconcernedthattheoverhangwilltakelongertoresolve, and even with a resolution, that longer-term problems have developed (China economy weaker,supplych

32、ainmovementcausinghighercostbasis,accelerationofChinadomestic investment,etc).Withthatsaid,wearestickingwithafewnamessuchasAVGO,IPHI, MRVL,NXPI,andQCOM,whicheithertradeatasharpdiscountsand/orhavecompany specificdriver/catalysts,whichshouldmakethemlookbetteras2020estimatescomeinto focus.Analog Has th

33、e Most Correction Still to Go: TheIndustrialandAutomarketsareatthe centerofcyclicalfearsandthetradesituationonlycompoundsanycorrection.InFigure8, wehighlightthefallofinPMIattheendoftheyear,whichisnotyetreflectedinforward estimatesfortheAnaloggroup.Clearlysomeofthesenamesarethecleanestbusiness models

34、insemis,butwejustdontseeupsidegiventheytradeat16-18xforwardEPSwith earningspotentiallygoingdownanother5-10%.5GtheThemetoPlayfor2019:Wecantsolveforthecyclical/tradefearsbutdobelieve namesleveredtotheComm.shouldfarebetter,with5Gamaterialdriverforseveralofour namesincludingMRVLandQCOM.XLNXandADIalsohav

35、estrongleveragetothistrend. For MRVL specifically, we believe its 5G story is underappreciated with $2000 of incrementalcontentperbasestationandopportunitiestogainmaterialshare.COHRdowngradetoEW-OLEDRampTakingLongerthanExpected:OLEDfabbuildsare still delayed and we expect that the softer handset env

36、ironment further pushesout timelines.TheslowerOLEDramphurtsthetopline,butevenwiththerevenueresetinFY19, opexshouldmovehigher(meritincreasesandpromotion),whichhamperstheprospectof anearningsrecoveryasmarginsimproveinthe2H.Further,weexpectIndustrialweakness tolingerthrough2019astariffandshare-shiftsco

37、ntinuetobeaheadwindintheIndustrial Laserbusiness,whichhasunderperformedsincetheRofinacquisition.QTNAdowngradetoUW-SupplyChainDisruptionSlows10GRampandWiFi6Brings MoreCompetition: WeacknowledgeQTNAhasasuperiorWLANproductbutthepoint hereisthebestsolutiondoesnotalwayswininvolumeandwehaveseenlittletract

38、ionfor Wave3outsideofitsoriginalwins.Near-term,weseerisktothe10Gramp,givenArrisshift ofproductionfacilitiesoutofChinathatshouldcreate1H19noise,andquestionwhether the2H18rampincludedanyArrisbuildaheadofthemove.TheupsidecaseforQTNAhad assumedComcastwouldmovealldeploymentstotheXB6gatewaybutwebelieveXB6

39、is onlybeingdeployedat400MB+,indicatingXB3isthemajorityofthevolume. Lastly,QTNA stillrecognizesthemajorityofitsrevenuefromWave2solutions,whichshouldcomeunder pressureasWiFi6isrolledoutingreatervolume.Tostart2019,wethoughtitwasimportanttoaddressourtwobiggestmissesin2018 andwhywearenotgivinguponthecal

40、ls:Why is Marvell Still a Top Pick- Impactful 5G & Double Digit Growth in NetworkingWeclearlywerewayoffonthetimingonthisonein2018butseenoreasontogiveupon thecallfor2019.Inthenear-term,thenameisnotthatdifferentthantherestofthegroup withitsStoragebusinessstillsoft,butevenwithanothermodesttrimforApril(

41、whichwe reflectedinourestimates)thenameischeapon2019andlooksevenbetteras2020comes intofocus.5GatSamsungalonecouldaddseveralhundredmilliondollarstothemodelin 2020/21(upfrom$60MforSamsungperyear)withAI,5Gsharegains,ARMservers,and cloudstoragealsoincrementalopportunities.5GOpportunityOfOurNames,MostImp

42、actfultoModel5GWeunderstandthat XLNXandADIalsohavestrong5GstoriesbutforMRVL,5Gcanreallymovethemodel. Thecompanytalksaboutanincremental$2,000ofcontentperbasestation.Assuming Samsungshareofroughly20%ofthe1.2Munitmarketthisequatesto$400M+/year vs.only$60M/yearin4GunderCAVM.WewouldhighlightthatNokiaandE

43、ricsson have50%moreshareeachandbelieveMRVLhasagoodshotatwinningthebusiness. Thisalsoassumesaflatunitmarketandeverythingwearehearingisthat5Gcanbring 3-4xmoreradiostogettherequireddensity.AI/ARMLeadCustomersStillShowingStrongInterestOntheAIfront,webelieve MRVLisworkingwithonelargeleadcustomerforaninfe

44、rencesolution.Webelieve theyaretargetingalowerpower/costsolutionthatcanfitinaPCIeslotwithout externalpower.Thecompanyistargetinga2019tapeoutwithrevenuelikelyin2020. OntheARMserversidethereisdefinitelyinvestorfatigueherepostCAVMbutthereis stillaleadcustomerthatispushingthesolution(likelyMSFT).Theques

45、tionhereis timing,andwhetherTX2(2019)orTX3(2020+)ramps.Theimportanttakeawayisthat thereislittlerevenueinthemodeltodayandthecompanyiscommittedtolimiting further spend on the project by increasingly looking to the customer for opex offsets/NRE.StorageLikelySeesFurtherSoftnessStoragesoundslikeitcontinu

46、estobeweak.We cutourmodelfurtherfortheAprilquarterbutrecognizethereisthepotentialfor furtherdownsidethere.WedobelieveMRVLshouldseeareturntogrowthonthe Ent./Cloudcontrollersidebutwithfallingflashpriceswerecognizethatpurchasesmay bedelayedinthe1H.Why Still an UW on INTC Slowing Markets and Substantial

47、 Challenges Ahead:ThisisthecallthateatsusupthemostaswewereveryearlywithourpreviousOWbut nowfindourselvesagainearlywiththeUW.Whatismostamusingaboutthesituationis thatthebullcampisnowusingmanyofourargumentsagainstusessentiallyPCsarent asbadasyouthinkgoingforward,thedatacenterisgoingtofinallydrivegrowt

48、hforthe overallcompany,andcompetitionisoverratedasIntelisveryentrenchedwithitscustomers andhasarchitecturalandprocessadvantages.Wethoughtitmadesensetoupdateour thoughtsonthesepoints.PCsMarketSlowingwithSomeInventoryConcernsPCsdidendamulti-yearperiod ofdeclineswithpositivegrowthin2H17butthatflippedne

49、gativein3Q18andonly acceleratedinQ4(down3-4%Y/Y).Wewouldhighlightadeltain2018betweenthe unitsthatIntelshippedintothechannel(+5%Y/Y)vs.theODMs(-5%)andtheend market(flattodown1%).Wewouldalsohighlightthatthisperformancecomesonthe backofafairlyhealthyEnterpriseenvironmentaheadofWindows7EOLinJan2020, sug

50、gestingthat2020couldbeaneventougheryear.WearentgoingtoputmuchweightbehindtheAMDthreatheregiventheclientmarketisnttooperformance sensitivebutthatonlyaddstotheissuesforIntel.DataCenterMarket,Competition,LossofPerformanceLeadershipTheDataCenter markethadaknockoutyearin2018andwhilestronggrowthshouldcont

51、inueforthe foreseeablefuture,wedobelieveinthenear-termthatthereisaperiodofdigestion fromtheelevatedlevelsin2018.Onthecompetitivefront,thisiswhereweseethe most risk. Unlike the client market, Data Center is very sensitive to price/performance/powerwithasmallgroupofbuyersthatisveryknowledgeable. Intel

52、claimsitwillretainperformanceleadershipvs.AMDs7nmEpyc2butinour opinion,thatisjustnotpossible.CPUsforthedatacenteraretunedtotheexact frequencythatwilldelivertherightperformanceattherightpower.Yes,Intelcanrun somecrazyclockspeedstoshowperformanceonabenchmarkbutthatcomesata costonthepowerside.Datacente

53、rsrunrackswithcertainfixedpower/thermal envelopesandyoucantjustchangethatequation,evenifyouareIntel.Ontheother hand,aprocessnodeshrinkcandelivera30-50%powersavings,whichcantranslate directlyintohigherperformance-eitherthroughclockspeedsormorecores.Thepoint hereisthatEpycwillbeinthemarketinQ219whileI

54、ntel10nmisnotuntil2H20if everythinggoestoplan.Bythistime,weexpectAMDtomoveto7+with5nmcoming notthatlongafter.ThemaincompetitortoIntelisactuallyTSMCastheywillenable thecompetitionwhetheritisx86orARM.Intelsonlyhopeistomoveto7nmasfastas possiblebutthatwillbecostlyintermsofcapexandhasahighdegreeofdiffic

55、ulty given10nmisstillintheearlystages.Intelwillalsoneedtodoanarchitecturalchange andshrinkatthesametimeforthefirsttimeever.10nm Fixed? Does that Change Anything and has Intel Missed Another Major ArchitecturalShift?-WehearalotfrominvestorsthatthereasontobuyIntelisthat 10nmisfixedandmaybeeventracking

56、better.Wehavealotofquestionsaroundthis notion.Yes,itdoesseemthatIntelhasremovedsomefeaturesinitsoriginal10nm whichwerecausingyieldandperformanceissuesbutthishassomeimpacts1)the performancelikelywontbeasgoodasoriginallyadvertised,and2)whathappensto thosepartssuchasFPGAswhereyoualreadysampledontheorig

57、inal10nm?We wouldalsohighlightthattheclientmarketisnotonewheretimingevenmatters,asall PCsaredesignedforbacktoschoolanda10nmprocessoramonthearlywouldnot changeanything.Ontheflipside,wewillbeinterestedtoseehowGMstrackasthe 10nmdepreciationfinallyflowsthroughthemodel.Theotherthingwehearisthat Intelhasa

58、monolithicdieforserverswhileAMDismulti-chip.Weadmitthatwewere originallyskepticalofAMDsarchitecturebutAMDseemstohavefixedthelatency issueswiththededicatedIOchipinEpyc2.Theadvantageofthisisamuchmore modulararchitectureandcostsavingsgiventhesmallerdie.Whatismostinterestingis IntelsacquisitionofNetSpee

59、dinSeptember2018,increasingtalkoftilearchitectures andEMIB,andplansformulti-dieat7nmsuggestingAMDwasoutinfronthereagain (similarto64bitandmulti-core).Anotherreasonwhy7nmcantcomesoonenoughfor Intel.FIGURE 1Median Change in Consensus Estimates and Stock PriceSource: Barclays Research, RefinitivMostCom

60、paniesPullBackin2018onBackHalfWeaknessThevastmajorityofcompaniesundercoveragemovedlowerin2018duetoadifficultback halfoftheyearcharacterizedbytariff/tradeconcerns,cyclicality,iPhonesoftness,and worseningmacrofundamentals.AMD (+80%)wasthegroupstopperformerin2018as themarketbegantopriceinexpectationsof