全球液化石油氣：繁榮的頂端

1、14 February 2019GlobalEQUITIESOIL & GASOn the cusp of a new boomGlobal LNGBE GlobalEQUITIESOIL & GASOn the cusp of a new boomGlobal LNGWea of LNG The “second wave” of US LNG is coming: the US will make up almost 40% of new project approvalsMajors to grow and defend market share; LNG represents USD60

2、bn pa contract opportunity for OFS: FTI, SPM, BHGE and IMI stand to benefitRecord LNG boom: We are on the cusp of an unprecedentedofnewFinalonLNGprojects. be by solid demand, buyer interest decent economics.Arecord75mtpacapacitycouldin2019andanother50 mtpa thereafter, up our 40-50 (see HYPERLINK /R/

3、10/VqtKXXnlmFwm Global The HYPERLINK /R/10/VqtKXXnlmFwm glutabates,thecrunch2018).Forthislevelofactivitybe threetimeshigherthanarealreadypickinginthelastmonths, morecapacitygiventhegreenlightthanthethreeSeeour updated LNG project list inside thisnote.USleadsthebutRoWgetsitsfairshare:Wemorethanathird

4、ofproject in to come from the US Gulf Coast. “second of USLNGexportscouldbethanthefirst.USprojectsspecificchallenges(eg the Chinese tariff on US but Uncertainty on future US gives an opportunity for projects to move means LNG be more than cycles.Stock implications: Majors (Shell, Total, Exxon, BP, e

5、tc) are well placed to defendKim Fustier* Analyst, Oil & Gas HSBC Bank plc HYPERLINK mailto:kim.fustier kim.fustier+44 20 3359 2136Charles Swabey* AnalystHSBC Bank plc HYPERLINK mailto:charles.swabey charles.swabey+44 20 3268 3954Tarek Soliman*, CFA AnalystHSBC Bank plc HYPERLINK mailto:tarek.solima

6、n tarek.soliman+44 20 3268 5528Abhishek Kumar* AnalystHSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) Private Limited HYPERLINK mailto:abhishek.kumarhsbc.co.in abhishek.kumarhsbc.co.in+91 80 4555 2753Gordon Gray*Global Head of Oil and Gas Equity ResearchHSBC Bank plc HYPERLINK mailto:gordon.gray gordon.

7、gray+44 20 7991 6787Thomas C. Hilboldt*, CFAHead of Resources & Energy Research, Asia Pacific The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited HYPERLINK mailto:thomaschilboldt.hk thomaschilboldt.hk+852 2822 2922Scott Cagehin* AnalystHSBC Bank plc HYPERLINK mailto:scott.cagehin scott.cagehin+44

8、20 7992 1444theirc50%oftheLNGmarket.ButthinksomeUScould also be at projects. the looks set to grow its LNG business at the LNG sales doubling 2018 and 2025e. For companies, the LNG market offers a dollar opportunity per against a largely subdued outlook for Saipem and have the highest to onshore LNG

9、 project Baker Hughes from an LNG investment boom.Global gas prices to fall in 2019-21: In this report we introduce our global LNG price assumptions for the first time. We expect European hub and Asian LNG prices to fall 10% vs a strong 2018, dragged down by falling oil-linked prices while LNG suppl

10、y rises. In our view, the LNG market will be looser in 2020-21 as US exports continue to ramp up, LNG competes with piped gas in China and gas could be temporarily displaced by cheap fuel oil in EM countries. We continue to see a cyclical supply crunch emerging by 2022 due to the lack of investment

11、decisions in 2016-17.* Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is not registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulationsDisclosures & DisclaimerThis report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer,

12、which forms part of it.Issuer of report: HSBC BankplcView HSBC Global Researchat: HYPERLINK / A new LNG boom We expect an record wave of LNG project approvals in 2019-21, underpinned by strong demand and buyer interest The second wave of US LNG exports is coming (despite Chinese tariffs) as economic

13、s remain attractive Oil Majors remain well placed, but watch US newcomers seeking to “disrupt” the LNG businessThe stars are aligning for a wave of FIDsThe recovery is underway: In several respects, the outlook for the global gas and LNG market remains in better shape than that for oil. Similar to 2

14、017, 2018 was a tighter year for global gas markets than expected, despite the wave of new LNG supplies coming onstream. Chinese LNG imports rose by 40% last year (for the third year in a row), helping to absorb a large part of newsupplies.There is increasing evidence that the right conditions econo

15、mic and commercial are in place to underpin a new wave of LNG projects. Compared to a year ago, there is a growing acceptance from market participants that a cyclical LNG supply “crunch” could materialise in the 2022-23 timeframe given the lack of project approvals during the oil price downturn.Afte

16、r two barren years for new LNG project approvals in 2016-17, conditions started to improve markedly last year with four Final Investment Decisions (FIDs). Shells long-awaited FID on LNG Canada in October was the first large greenfield project since 2015, and was followed four months later by the fir

17、st US greenfield project approval (Exxon/Qatar Petroleums Golden Pass).We estimate that somewhere between 150 and 170 mtpa of liquefaction capacity could be sanctioned (approved) over the next three years (2019-21), or around 55 mtpa per annum on average. For context, this is around 2.5-3 times more

18、 than the run-rate of 20 mtpa over the last eight years. If 75 mtpa of capacity are approved this year, it would be 3.5 times more than last year and well above the previous record (45 mtpa in 2005).US leads the way, but RoW gets its fair share: We expect more than a third of new project approvals i

19、n 2019-21 to come from the US Gulf Coast. The “second wave” of US LNG exports could well be bigger than the first, and could make the US the worlds biggest LNG exporter by the mid-2020s. Although US projects face specific challenges (eg the Chinese 10% tariff on US cargoes), their economics remain a

20、ttractive. Uncertainty on future US exports gives an opportunity for projects elsewhere (Russia, Qatar and Africa) to move forward. This means LNG construction activity over the next few years will be more geographically diversified than previous cycles which were dominated by a single country (Qata

21、r, then Australia).Majors to defend market share vs newcomers: The oil majors (Shell, Total, Exxon, BP, etc) are well placed to defend their c50% share of the Global LNG market. Unlike most independents, majors are able to launch projects without bank financing by taking LNG volumes into their portf

22、olio, as Shell demonstrated on its LNG Canada project. But we think some USnewcomers such as Tellurian or Venture Global could also be successful at launching projects, especially if they undercut incumbents on price. Among the majors, Total looks set to grow its LNG business at the fastest pace, wi

23、th LNG sales doubling between 2018 and 2025e.For OFS companies, the LNG market offers a multi-billion dollar opportunity (c.USD60bn per year) against a largely subdued upstream capex outlook. SPM and FTI have the highest exposure to LNG project construction. However we think US projects (more than a

24、 third of expected FIDs) could bypass European OFS due to the strength of local contractor competition.Summary of companies mentionedCompanyTickerCurrCMPRatingRated stocksBPBP LNGBp545.2BuyENIENI IMEUR14.76BuyExxonMobilXOM USUSD75.40BuyRoyal Dutch Shell ARSDA LNGBp2,440HoldTotalFPEUR48.80BuyNovatekN

25、VTK LIUSD180.20HoldTechnipFMCFTI USUSD22.61HoldSaipemSPM IMEUR4.04BuyBaker HughesBHGE USUSD24.74BuyIMIIMI LNGBp957BuyCOOEC600583 CHCNY5.54HoldKorea Gas Company036460 KSKRW53,300HoldSchlumbergerSLB USUSD44.06BuyHalliburtonHAL USUSD30.8BuyNon-rated stocksCheniereLNG USUSD65.82TellurianTELL USUSD9.18Go

26、lar LNGGLNG USUSD22.41GalpGALP PLEUR13.8WoodsideWPL AUAUD34.6ConocoPhillipsCOP USUSD67.45Anadarko PetroleumAPC USUSD42.8Sempra EnergySRE USUSD114.12Tokyo Gas9531 JTJPY2945McDermottMDR USUSD9.3Chiyoda6366 JTJPY328JGC1963 JTJPY1567Source: Bloomberg, Refinitiv Datastream, prices as of 12 February 2019

27、closingIn this report we introduce our global LNG price assumptions for the first time, with explicit forecasts out to 2021e. We expect spot and oil-linked LNG prices to be lower in 2019-21e due to a combination rising supplies and lower crude prices.Global gas price prices, 2016-21e (in USD/mbtu)20

28、16201720182019e2020e2021eUK spot gasAsia spot LNGOil-linked LNG10.310.010.0US Henry HubSource: Refinitiv Datastream, HSBC estimates2.492.963.0260-70 mtpa of annual LNG capacity could be approved in 2019-20We are turning more optimistic on the outlook for LNG project sanctions in light of strong LNG

29、demand, signs of firm buyer interest resulting in offtake deals, and bullish guidance from project sponsors.In this report, we revise FID projections upwards: we now expect around 75 mtpa of FIDs in 2019 and around 50 mtpa in 2020. The lumpy nature of LNG project FIDs means that one project slipping

30、 from 4Q19 into 1Q20 could easily move 15 mtpa from one year to the next.The outlook for LNG sanctioning beyond the next two years looks solid as well, and we expect as much as 50 mtpa in 2021-22 on average.We have only included projects which we think can credibly compete for a Final Investment Dec

31、ision based on a range of factors including engineering readiness, funding and sales contracting position, each projects ranking on its owners priority list and the nature of the respective project sponsors (IOC, NOC or independent).While dont see to our of mtpa of in 2019-20, see less to base case

32、than six months Indeed we previously expected our (lower) forecasts to be almost certainly too high. We argued that a run-rate of 40-50 mtpa of capacity approvals in 2019 and 2020 would be more than the maximum amount of LNG ever sanctioned in a single year, which was around 45 mtpa in 2005. This me

33、ant that some projects were likely to slip to the right and our forecasts would eventually turn out to be wrong.Of course there are risks of to tentative reflect these havealreadyriskedourforecastsbypushingtorightorthemWe have moved many projects out by one or despite to beabletoinnearAndtherearesti

34、llmanymoreproposedlisted in ourLNG project Final Investment Decisions are set to accelerate in 2019-2080706050403020100USCanadaAustraliaMidEastAsiaAfricaLatamRussiaEuropeAvg2000-17Source: HSBC estimatesSee our previous Global LNG research: HYPERLINK /R/20/VVHqfvVzTfLA Global LNG update: The cycle is

35、 turning faster than we expected (9 July 2018) HYPERLINK /R/20/XTgfq6t9eMAp Global LNG: Feedback from the Road: Top 10 investor questions (22 May 2018) HYPERLINK /R/20/9BLsvgZzTfLA LNG Project Watch: Can LNG Canada kick-start the FID cycle in 2018? (24 April 2018) HYPERLINK /R/20/VqtKXXnzTfLA Global

36、 LNG: The glut abates, the crunch awaits (26 March 2018)LNG project FID tracker, 2014-21eCountryProjectSize# trainsFID dateOperatorProject Partnersest start-upMalaysiaPetronas FLNG 21.51Feb-14PetronasPetronas, Murphy2021USCameron13.53Aug-14SempraSempra (50.2%), Engie (16.6%), Mitsubishi (16.6%),Mits

37、ui (16.6%)2019USFreeport T1-213.22Nov-14FreeportFreeport LNG2018Total 201428.26USFreeport T34.41Apr-15FreeportFreeport LNG2018USCorpus Christi9.02May-15CheniereCheniere2019USSabine Pass T54.51Jul-15CheniereCheniere2019CameroonKribi FLNG1.21Sep-15EngiePerenco (75%), SNH (25%), Golar2017Total 201519.1

38、5USElba Island2.51Jun-16Kinder MorganKinder Morgan (100%), Shell2020IndonesiaTangguh T33.81Jul-16BPGov. of Indonesia, BP (37%)2020Total 20166.32MozambiqueCoral FLNG3.41Jun-17EniENI (25%), Exxon (25%) CNPC (20%), Galp (10%),Kogas (10%) and ENH (10%)2022Total 20173.41USCorpus Christi T34.51May-18Cheni

39、ereCheniere2023RussiaYamal LNG T40.91Jul-18NovatekNovatek (50.1%), Total (20%), CNPC (20%), Silk RoadFund (9.9%)2020CanadaShell LNG Canada14.02Oct-18ShellShell (40%), Petronas (25%), Petrochina (15%),Mitsubishi (15%), Kogas (5%)2024MauritaniaTortue FLNG2.51Dec 19BPBP (62%), Kosmos (32,49%), SMHPM (1

40、0%)2023Total 201821.95USGolden Pass15.63Feb-19ExxonExxon (30%), Qatar Petroleum JV (70%)2025MozambiqueGolfinho/Atum12.82AnadarkoAPC (26.5%), ENH (15%), Mitsui (20%), ONGC Videsh(10%), Beas Rovuma (10%, JV of OVL 60% and OIL 40%), Bharat Petroleum (10%), PTTEP (8.5%)2024CanadaWoodfibre LNG2.11Pacific

41、 Oil & GasPacific Oil & Gas Ltd2023RussiaArctic LNG 219.83NovatekNovatek (90%), Total (10%), Kogas, Saudi Aramco, Mitsubishi (TBC)2024MozambiqueMamba LNG15.22Eni/ExxonENI (25%), Exxon (25%) CNPC (20%), Galp (10%),Kogas (10%) and ENH (10%)2024USCalcasieu Pass10.02Venture Global LNGVenture Global LNG2

42、024Total 2019e75.513USCameron T44.51SempraSempra (50.2%), Total (16.6%), Mitsubishi (16.6%),Mitsui (16.6%)2024USDriftwood LNG ph111.01TellurianTellurian, Total (19%)2024Papua New GuineaPNG LNG expansion8.13Exxon/TotalExxon, Oil Search, Total2024USSabine Pass T64.51CheniereCheniere2023QatarQatargas e

43、xpansion T1-215.62QatargasQatar Petroleum, Exxon, Shell, Total (TBD)2025NigeriaNLNG Train 78.42NNPC (49%), Shell (25.6%), Total (15%), Eni (10.4%)2025Total 2020e52.110Congo-BrazzavilleCongo FLNG1.11NewAgeNewAge (25%), SNPC, ENI2025USMagnolia8.02LNG LimitedLNG Limited2025USFreeport T45.01Freeport LNG

44、Freeport LNG2025QatarQatargas expansion T37.81QatargasQatar Petroleum, Exxon, Shell, Total (TBD)2026USCameron T54.51SempraSempra (50.2%), Total (16.6%), Mitsubishi (16.6%),Mitsui (16.6%)2025CameroonEtinde FLNG1.41NewAgeNewAge, Lukoil, Bowleven, SNH2025MexicoECA Phase 13.01SempraSempra (60-70%), Tota

45、l (16.6%)2025USDriftwood LNG ph25.51TellurianTellurian, Total (19%)2026AustraliaPluto LNG T24.31WoodsideWoodside (90%), Kansai Electric (5%), Tokyo Gas (5%)2026Total2021e40.610Source: HSBC estimates, company reports HYPERLINK mailto:kim.fustier Click to request full schedule of LNG project approvals

46、 to 2025Whats changed in the last yearStrong market allaying “glut” fears as sellers target looming supply gapA strong spot market in 2018 has given operators greater confidence in demand growth and the worries about a “glut” are dissipating. We continue to believe there will be a supply deficit fro

47、m 2022 onwards, following a period of temporary softness around 2020-21.It seems that our view has now become the broad market consensus: While market participants expected LNG oversupply to last until the mid-2020s a year or so ago, this has now shifted forward by a couple of years. Participants ha

48、ve become aware of the risk of a cyclical supply gap emerging in the 2022-24 timeframe, and project sponsors are looking to get FIDs across the line to meet this demand.Falling project costs have improved full-cycle economicsAs we wrote in HYPERLINK /R/10/VqtKXXnlmFwm Global LNG: The glut abates, th

49、e crunch awaits (26 March 2018), project costs are not a major issue anymore. Upstream and liquefaction costs have fallen to a level where a number of LNG projects would fly at USD8-8.5/mbtu long-term.Many potential projects in the US Gulf Coast and elsewhere have estimated liquefaction unit costs o

50、f USD500-600/ton. LNG Canada was sanctioned at USD1,000/ton of liquefaction costs according to Shell. Total has stated that it has achieved its USD500/ton cost target for its brownfield projects, but not for greenfield projects yet (such as Papua LNG, which still requires engineering to get costs do

51、wn). This compares with liquefaction costs of USD2,000/ton or more for Australian projects sanctioned in the 2009-12 period.There remains an important debate on cost vs reliability. Some US Gulf Coast projects for instance claim to have costs as low as USD500/ton, but this figure may not include any

52、 contingency. Comparing project costs on a real “l(fā)ike for like” basis is very challenging.Buyers are signing contracts (even long-term deals)As we wrote in HYPERLINK /R/20/VVHqfvVzTfLA Global LNG update: The cycle is turning faster than we expected (9 July 2018), we have seen a number of LNG sales c

53、ontracts being signed. Strong demand growth, high spot prices and the roll-off of legacy contracts has encouraged buyers to start locking in longer term offtake to guarantee adequate supply in the 2020s.Firm contracts have been signed with a variety of supply points (from the US Gulf Coast to Africa

54、) and a range of importers (Chinese, other Asian and European). Importantly, some of these contracts arent just preliminary agreements but firm Sales and Purchase Agreements (SPAs) that are legally binding, subject to FID being taken. Recent examples include the SPAs signed by Taiwans CPC and Polish

55、 utility PGNiG with Cheniere (source: company press release, 10 Aug / 8 Nov 2018), and the conversion of Memorandums of Understanding (MoUs) into firm SPAs for Anadarkos Mozambique LNG project (source: company press releases).It is also interesting to note that some of these contracts arent just sho

56、rt-term contracts, but medium and long-term contracts with 15 to 25-year tenors.And lastly, trading houses Vitol and Trafigura have been willing to sign contracts with unsanctioned US projects in recent months, specifically with Cheniere and Tellurian (source: company press releases, 7 September and

57、 6 December 2018). Most notably, Vitol signed a 15- year MoU with Tellurian linked to the JKM (Japan Korea Marker) if it converts to an SPA, it would be the first SPA linked to the JKM hub.While the trading houses greater involvement in pre-FID projects is a good sign, we still dont believe trading

58、houses will have a material impact on project sanctions as i) such contracts remain rare, and some are not binding, ii) banks prefer projects backed by offtake agreements with Majors or investment-grade importers.Tight lending conditions and need for long-term offtake favours portfolio players In or

59、der to secure project financing, projects typically need around 70-80% of capacity contracted. A panel at a recent LNG industry conference (World LNG Summit, Lisbon,November 2018) found that 56% of market participants expect LNG projects to be financed with only half the volumes pre-sold, and 36% of

60、 participants believe it will never happen.Bank lending based on non-binding contracts (MoUs), offtake contracts with trading houses (as opposed to Majors or investment-grade importers) or JKM indices is still not really taking place.The only other way reach FID is for operators to finance projects