房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)三季報(bào)總結(jié)及全年業(yè)績前瞻：增長是主基調(diào)業(yè)績鎖定性較佳

1、內(nèi)容目錄 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250009 前三季業(yè)績增長較好4 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250008 市場關(guān)注的 2019 年三季報(bào)財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)6 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250007 板塊盈利能力略有下降，個(gè)股出現(xiàn)分化6 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250006 負(fù)債水平保持穩(wěn)定12 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250005 少數(shù)股東權(quán)益占比提升15 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250004 三季度去化速度明顯加快17 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250003 優(yōu)勢房企業(yè)績鎖定性較佳20 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250002

2、優(yōu)勢房企銷售表現(xiàn)優(yōu)異21 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250001 優(yōu)勢地產(chǎn)股長期仍具配置價(jià)值23 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250000 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)24國信證券投資評級26分析師承諾26風(fēng)險(xiǎn)提示26證券投資咨詢業(yè)務(wù)的說明26圖表目錄圖 1：板塊前三季度營收變化情況4圖 2：板塊前三季度凈利變化情況4圖 3：板塊毛利率變化情況7圖 4：板塊凈利率變化情況7圖 5：行業(yè)負(fù)債水平變化情況12圖 6：短期償債能力變化情況12圖 7：2019 年 1-10 月龍頭房企銷售增速一覽22圖 8：2019 年 1-9 月房地產(chǎn)投資累計(jì)同比增速23圖 9：2019 年 1-9 月銷售額累計(jì)同比增速23

3、圖 10：2019 年 1-9 月新開工面積累計(jì)同比增速23圖 11：2019 年 1-9 月施工面積累計(jì)同比增速23圖 12：當(dāng)前板塊動(dòng)態(tài) PE 處在近五年第二低位24表 1：2019 年前三季房地產(chǎn)板塊營業(yè)收入、歸母凈利潤同比增速一覽4表 2：房地產(chǎn)板塊毛利率、凈利率同比變化一覽7表 3：房地產(chǎn)板塊 ROE、ROIC 變化一覽10表 4：房地產(chǎn)板塊 2019 前三季負(fù)債水平及短期償債能力一覽13表 5：房地產(chǎn)板塊 “少數(shù)股東權(quán)益比”較“少數(shù)股東損益比”情況15表 6：房地產(chǎn)板塊 2019 年三季度存貨去化情況18表 7：地產(chǎn) A 股業(yè)績鎖定性一覽21表 8：2019 年 1-10 月銷售

4、TOP30 優(yōu)勢房企一覽22前三季業(yè)績增長較好房地產(chǎn)板塊 2019 年前三季度的營收和凈利潤主要結(jié)轉(zhuǎn)于 2017 年上半年的銷售，部分結(jié)轉(zhuǎn)于 2016 年下半年的銷售，這期間行業(yè)量價(jià)齊升，所銷售的項(xiàng)目毛利率較高，因此房地產(chǎn)板塊 2019 年前三季業(yè)績整體較好。根據(jù)房地產(chǎn)板塊 131 家上市公司的財(cái)報(bào)數(shù)據(jù)，2019 年前三季度板塊營業(yè)收入14712 億元，同比增長 22.0%；歸母凈利潤 1379 億元，同比增長 11.7%。56% 的房企歸母凈利潤實(shí)現(xiàn)了正增長，其中： 增速大于 300%的有 7 家，包括海泰發(fā)展、榮豐控股、浙江廣廈、大名城、黑牡丹、粵宏遠(yuǎn) A、棲霞建設(shè)等； 增速位于 100%

5、至 300%之間的有 9 家，包括鳳凰股份、三湘印象、哈高科、北京城建、大龍地產(chǎn)、中華企業(yè)、藍(lán)光發(fā)展等； 增速位于 20%至 100%之間的有 36 家，包括金科股份、中南建設(shè)、大悅城、泰禾集團(tuán)、天健集團(tuán)、陽光城、保利地產(chǎn)、綠地控股、萬科 A、華夏幸福、新城控股等。圖 1：板塊前三季度營收變化情況圖 2：板塊前三季度凈利變化情況板塊營業(yè)收入（億元）板塊營業(yè)收入同比增速板塊歸母凈利潤（億元）板塊歸母凈利潤同比增速16000140001200010000800060004000200002016/9/302017/9/302018/9/302019/9/3040%35%30%25%20%15%10

6、%5%0%160014001200100080060040020002016/9/302017/9/302018/9/302019/9/3035%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%資料來源: Wind、 整理資料來源: Wind、 整理表 1：2019 年前三季房地產(chǎn)板塊營業(yè)收入、歸母凈利潤同比增速一覽序號證券代碼證券簡稱2019 前三季歸母凈利潤同比2019 前三季營業(yè)收入同比增增速（%）速（%）1600082.SH海泰發(fā)展148482000668.SZ榮豐控股13111623600052.SH浙江廣廈1012-84歸母凈利潤增4600094.SH大名城73065600510.SH黑牡丹

7、4631106000573.SZ粵宏遠(yuǎn) A3911817600533.SH棲霞建設(shè)340308600716.SH鳳凰股份22059000863.SZ三湘印象2121810600095.SH哈高科191163歸母凈利潤同11600266.SH北京城建16839比增速位于12600647.SH同達(dá)創(chuàng)業(yè)161-12之間13600159.SH大龍地產(chǎn)141-1714600675.SH中華企業(yè)1291515600466.SH藍(lán)光發(fā)展1089516600807.SHST 天業(yè)101-6歸母凈利潤同17600732.SHST 新梅9551比增速位于18600064.SH南京高科87-5320%至 100%1

8、9000656.SZ金科股份8261速大于 300%100%至 300%之間20000961.SZ中南建設(shè)793721000517.SZ榮安地產(chǎn)60922600565.SH迪馬股份513723600748.SH上實(shí)發(fā)展511524600223.SH魯商發(fā)展482825600322.SH天房發(fā)展473926000031.SZ大悅城476827000732.SZ泰禾集團(tuán)47828000090.SZ天健集團(tuán)433129000671.SZ陽光城432330000718.SZ蘇寧環(huán)球392331600208.SH新湖中寶395632000046.SZ泛海控股37333600890.SH中房股份34-17

9、34600048.SH保利地產(chǎn)341835600606.SH綠地控股332636000402.SZ金融街325437600177.SH雅戈?duì)?14538603506.SH南都物業(yè)312239002146.SZ榮盛發(fā)展312740002016.SZ世榮兆業(yè)315341000002.SZ萬科 A302742000838.SZ財(cái)信發(fā)展30943600185.SH格力地產(chǎn)298944600376.SH首開股份293945000560.SZ我愛我家28346600724.SH寧波富達(dá)27-3347600007.SH中國國貿(mào)251148600340.SH華夏幸福244249000042.SZ中洲控股22-

10、4650002244.SZ濱江集團(tuán)22-1951600848.SH上海臨港20-1452601155.SH新城控股201953000918.SZ嘉凱城187054000069.SZ華僑城 A182255000029.SZ深深房 A181956600663.SH陸家嘴162257600648.SH外高橋121958000679.SZ大連友誼11-2959601588.SH北辰實(shí)業(yè)10-760000897.SZ*ST 津?yàn)I94361600325.SH華發(fā)股份748歸母凈利潤同62000537.SZ廣宇發(fā)展7-9比增速位于63002377.SZ國創(chuàng)高新7140%至 20%之64600823.SH世茂

11、股份45間65600639.SH浦東金橋45766600173.SH臥龍地產(chǎn)4-3767600383.SH金地集團(tuán)32768600895.SH張江高科32069600743.SH華遠(yuǎn)地產(chǎn)2370600162.SH香江控股2-671600773.SH西藏城投21672002305.SZ南國置業(yè)112673000540.SZ中天金SZ中國武SH天津松江-2-6676000514.SZ渝開發(fā)-5-4977000056.SZ皇庭國際-75歸母凈利潤同78000006.SZ深振業(yè) A-102379600215.SH長春經(jīng)開-11-6980000036.

12、SZ華聯(lián)控股-18-1781600067.SH冠城大通-197比下降82000909.SZ數(shù)源科技-27-3983000011.SZ深物業(yè) A-29-1684600246.SH萬通地產(chǎn)-29-7585600622.SH光大嘉寶-301286600665.SH天地源-30-3887600657.SH信達(dá)地產(chǎn)-31988600736.SH蘇州高新-337789002133.SZ廣宇集團(tuán)-352390000534.SZ萬澤股份-35891600641.SH萬業(yè)企業(yè)-37-3092000631.SZ順發(fā)恒業(yè)-38-2393001979.SZ招商蛇口-38-2494600393.SH粵泰股份-39749

13、5000926.SZ福星股份-39-2096600708.SH光明地產(chǎn)-43-997600649.SH城投控股-44-6198000620.SZ新華聯(lián)-47-999600692.SH亞通股份-4811100002208.SZ合肥城建-49-35101600658.SH電子城-54-30102600515.SH海航基礎(chǔ)-55-3103600604.SH市北高新-63-19104002314.SZ南山控股-66-28105000736.SZ中交地產(chǎn)-70-11106600638.SH新黃浦-70-24107000667.SZ美好置業(yè)-74233108600791.SH京能置業(yè)-7853109002

14、285.SZ世聯(lián)行SZ中航善達(dá)-83-2111600684.SH珠江實(shí)業(yè)-84-22112000616.SZ海航投資-102-5113000502.SZ綠景控股-104-10114000965.SZ天保基建-108-91115600683.SH京投發(fā)展-131-41116600077.SH宋都股份-140-21117000691.SZ亞太實(shí)業(yè)-157-37118000981.SZST 銀億SH華麗家族-200-26120600568.SH中珠醫(yī)療-210-27121000506.SZ中潤資源SZ

15、ST 新光-315-10123000558.SZ萊茵體育-406-87124000809.SZ鐵嶺新城-545-25125600239.SH云南城投-567-31126600463.SH空港股份-577-19127000014.SZ沙河股份-596-51128000608.SZ陽光股份-651-26129000615.SZ京漢股份-8307130000609.SZ中迪投資-114514131600240.SH*ST 華業(yè)-3626-97資料來源: Wind、 整理（以上數(shù)據(jù)僅作列示，不做推薦）市場關(guān)注的 2019 年三季報(bào)財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)板塊盈利能力略有下降，個(gè)股出現(xiàn)分化板塊整體盈利能力略有下降，20

16、19 年前三季度，板塊毛利率為 31.6%，較上半年末下降 1.0 個(gè)百分點(diǎn)；板塊凈利率為 11.9 %，較上半年末下降 1.4 個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。圖 3：板塊毛利率變化情況圖 4：板塊凈利率變化情況銷售毛利率（%）銷售凈利率（%）411638351432122910268資料來源: Wind， 整理資料來源: Wind， 整理在房地產(chǎn)板塊 131 家上市公司中，58%的房企 2019 年前三季的毛利率較 2018年同期有所提升， 44%的房企 2019 年前三季的凈利率較 2018 年同期有所提升。其中，53%的房企毛利率水平高于行業(yè)平均水平，44%的房企凈利率水平高于行業(yè)平均水平，個(gè)股盈利能力出現(xiàn)

17、分化。表 2：房地產(chǎn)板塊毛利率、凈利率同比變化一覽2019 年前三2018 年前三毛利率提升2019 年前三2018 年前三凈利率利率提（%）（%）（%）（%）1000608.SZ陽光股份90.273.416.8-12.14.8-16.92000534.SZ萬澤股份88.059.828.215.93.512.43000036.SZ華聯(lián)控股75.273.71.529.529.10.34000056.SZ皇庭國際70.564.85.721.226.9-5.75002016.SZ世榮兆業(yè)69.366.72.634.641.0-6.46600848.SH上海臨港68.357.410.839.925.0

18、14.97000029.SZ深深房 A65.255.89.323.123.4-0.38000718.SZ蘇寧環(huán)球63.655.38.331.626.25.39600052.SH浙江廣廈62.717.045.71488.821.51467.210000069.SZ華僑城 A62.660.91.722.821.90.911600177.SH雅戈?duì)?9.658.31.444.849.5-4.712600663.SH陸家嘴59.249.89.431.632.6-1.013000668.SZ榮豐控股56.749.67.120.03.816.114600895.SH張江高科55.944.311.657.2

19、66.8-9.615002208.SZ合肥城建55.439.815.617.912.25.716600675.SH中華企業(yè)54.631.223.423.111.911.217600007.SH中國國貿(mào)54.453.11.328.425.33.218600246.SH萬通地產(chǎn)53.734.019.737.215.521.719600162.SH香江控股53.246.76.58.97.81.120600604.SH市北高新50.440.99.521.316.74.621000042.SZ中洲控股50.345.94.420.910.610.322600639.SH浦東金橋50.265.9-15.82

20、9.744.8-15.023000965.SZ天?；?9.257.2-8.0-14.816.9-31.724000031.SZ大悅城48.442.06.416.817.1-0.425000402.SZ金融街47.947.30.613.614.1-0.426600641.SH萬業(yè)企業(yè)47.756.3-8.633.036.7-3.727000046.SZ泛?？毓?7.755.2-7.5160.976.084.928600533.SH棲霞建設(shè)47.437.79.729.58.720.829600683.SH京投發(fā)展47.328.318.912.59.82.630600240.SH*ST 華業(yè)47.

21、159.0-11.9-3293.6-2.9-3290.731000011.SZ深物業(yè) A46.924.222.74.612.0-7.432600173.SH臥龍地產(chǎn)46.940.36.626.019.36.733600077.SH宋都股份46.647.3-0.7-5.610.0-15.634601588.SH北辰實(shí)業(yè)43.037.25.814.915.1-0.235002314.SZ南山控股42.946.5-3.54.110.1-5.9序號證券代碼證券簡稱季銷售毛利率季銷售毛利率（百分點(diǎn)）季銷售凈利率季銷售凈利率升（百分點(diǎn)）36600376.SH首開股份42.525.916.715.79.46

22、.337600503.SH華麗家族42.137.24.9-24.98.0-32.938600773.SH西藏城投42.039.52.57.38.3-1.039600064.SH南京高科42.049.3-7.4123.734.289.540600510.SH黑牡丹41.917.324.618.83.914.941600383.SH金地集團(tuán)41.741.40.419.523.0-3.542000537.SZ廣宇發(fā)展41.432.78.718.816.02.843000006.SZ深振業(yè) A40.839.01.923.534.2-10.744000517.SZ榮安地產(chǎn)40.537.72.822.71

23、7.15.645600340.SH華夏幸福40.445.4-5.015.417.6-2.246002244.SZ濱江集團(tuán)40.231.98.318.513.94.647600208.SH新湖中寶39.828.111.722.025.0-3.048000631.SZ順發(fā)恒業(yè)38.549.8-11.439.745.6-5.949600622.SH光大嘉寶37.354.2-16.99.320.9-11.650600515.SH海航基礎(chǔ)37.245.3-8.06.622.7-16.151000540.SZ中天金融37.229.67.614.665.7-51.252600159.SH大龍地產(chǎn)37.010

24、.426.63.0-9.312.353601155.SH新城控股36.638.6-2.014.116.6-2.554000863.SZ三湘印象36.336.5-0.218.25.712.555600393.SH粵泰股份36.237.2-1.08.024.4-16.456001979.SZ招商蛇口36.041.2-5.222.828.8-6.057000002.SZ萬科 A36.034.81.212.812.40.458600048.SH保利地產(chǎn)35.932.73.215.714.21.559600638.SH新黃浦35.931.04.98.216.8-8.660600724.SH寧波富達(dá)35.

25、429.36.122.912.510.461000514.SZ渝開發(fā)34.724.110.57.36.90.462600225.SH天津松江34.520.514.0-35.5-12.4-23.063600239.SH云南城投34.339.4-5.0-25.54.5-30.064600325.SH華發(fā)股份34.227.56.711.212.1-0.965600568.SH中珠醫(yī)療33.850.4-16.5-4.95.9-10.866600743.SH華遠(yuǎn)地產(chǎn)33.631.12.58.710.6-1.967000667.SZ美好置業(yè)33.413.919.52.240.6-38.468600736.

26、SH蘇州高新33.432.60.88.318.2-9.969600094.SH大名城33.033.9-0.99.51.77.770600823.SH世茂股份32.537.0-4.516.917.5-0.671002146.SZ榮盛發(fā)展31.332.2-0.912.413.7-1.372600684.SH珠江實(shí)業(yè)31.330.11.25.58.9-3.473600565.SH迪馬股份30.638.7-8.19.47.22.274000573.SZ粵宏遠(yuǎn) A30.415.414.917.6-19.036.675000560.SZ我愛我家30.229.70.57.76.51.276000656.SZ

27、金科股份30.125.94.110.89.01.877600067.SH冠城大通29.932.0-2.15.68.3-2.878000897.SZ*ST 津?yàn)I29.827.02.8-24.9-34.49.579600648.SH外高橋29.528.31.211.612.3-0.880002133.SZ廣宇集團(tuán)29.542.7-13.312.221.4-9.281000620.SZ新華聯(lián)29.132.4-3.22.85.5-2.682000615.SZ京漢股份29.122.76.30.40.20.283000732.SZ泰禾集團(tuán)28.931.0-2.010.810.9-0.184600657.S

28、H信達(dá)地產(chǎn)28.633.7-5.17.912.3-4.585000926.SZ福星股份28.632.9-4.38.110.1-2.086600185.SH格力地產(chǎn)28.542.5-14.014.721.4-6.787000671.SZ陽光城28.426.51.97.96.31.688600215.SH長春經(jīng)開27.811.516.341.614.327.289000014.SZ沙河股份27.726.51.3-12.72.2-15.090000609.SZ中迪投資27.222.05.2-361.1-33.8-327.291600708.SH光明地產(chǎn)27.237.6-10.48.612.4-3.8

29、92002147.SZST 新光27.229.3-2.1-20.48.2-28.593600748.SH上實(shí)發(fā)展27.129.1-2.010.210.10.194600082.SH海泰發(fā)展26.918.18.83.50.23.295600658.SH電子城26.764.5-37.913.821.3-7.596600466.SH藍(lán)光發(fā)展26.031.6-5.69.39.10.297000838.SZ財(cái)信發(fā)展25.823.22.5-0.21.9-2.198600791.SH京能置業(yè)24.918.76.25.421.8-16.499600665.SH天地源24.820.74.09.88.71.110

30、0000918.SZ嘉凱城24.51.822.6-35.1-80.545.5101603506.SH南都物業(yè)23.922.61.410.29.20.9102000736.SZ中交地產(chǎn)23.338.6-15.37.812.3-4.6103600649.SH城投控股22.426.8-4.525.018.56.5104600266.SH北京城建22.330.4-8.218.48.410.0105000616.SZ海航投資21.822.1-0.3-3.4177.6-181.0106000909.SZ數(shù)源科技21.815.95.93.43.7-0.3107600732.SHST 新梅21.50.820.

31、711.9-27.239.1108000558.SZ萊茵體育20.628.7-8.0-74.13.3-77.5109600807.SHST 天業(yè)20.44.316.21.7-105.5107.2110000502.SZ綠景控股20.218.41.8-16.3314.4-330.8111600322.SH天房發(fā)展20.027.7-7.67.96.71.2112000961.SZ中南建設(shè)20.021.3-1.35.75.20.5113600223.SH魯商發(fā)展19.514.45.13.02.30.7114000043.SZ中航善達(dá)19.122.3-3.13.220.3-17.1115000090.

32、SZ天健集團(tuán)18.817.81.04.03.70.3116000809.SZ鐵嶺新城18.326.7-8.4-65.311.0-76.3117600692.SH亞通股份18.223.9-5.74.69.1-4.5118600716.SH鳳凰股份17.412.94.64.1-3.57.6119000797.SZ中國武夷17.122.7-5.76.210.6-4.3120000981.SZST 銀億16.429.0-12.6-11.515.9-27.4121002377.SZ國創(chuàng)高新15.716.6-0.86.16.9-0.8122000679.SZ大連友誼15.417.5-2.1-27.1-20

33、.8-6.3123600606.SH綠地控股14.415.0-0.65.34.90.4124600095.SH哈高科14.136.0-22.02.7-4.67.3125002285.SZ世聯(lián)行11.720.7-9.01.37.2-5.9126600463.SH空港股份11.010.80.2-6.1-1.2-4.9127002305.SZ南國置業(yè)10.610.50.14.15.3-1.2128600647.SH同達(dá)創(chuàng)業(yè)8.961.1-52.2130.7-177.0307.7129000506.SZ中潤資源1.99.3-7.4-12.4-0.8-11.6130000691.SZ亞太實(shí)業(yè)-5.014

34、.8-19.8-60.161.2-121.2131600890.SH中房股份-826.5-779.5-47.0-5601.5-7073.71472.2資料來源: Wind、 整理（以上數(shù)據(jù)僅作列示，不做推薦）在房地產(chǎn)板塊 131 家上市公司中，42%的房企 2019 年前三季度的 ROE 較 2018年同期有所提升，其中藍(lán)光發(fā)展、金科股份、中南建設(shè)分別增長了 7.0、6.0、3.8 個(gè)百分點(diǎn)；45%的房企 2019 年前三季度的年 ROIC 較 2018 年同期有所提升。表 3：房地產(chǎn)板塊 ROE、ROIC 變化一覽序號證券代碼證券簡稱2019 年前三季 ROE（%）2018 年前三ROE 變

35、化（百季 ROE（%）分點(diǎn)）2019 年前三季 ROIC（%）2018 年前三ROIC 變化（百季 ROIC（%）分點(diǎn)）1600732.SHST 新梅40.6-1.742.327.1-1.929.12600052.SH浙江廣廈39.94.635.325.12.622.53002016.SZ世榮兆業(yè)26.223.23.015.214.40.94600340.SH華夏幸福21.320.31.04.84.70.15000537.SZ廣宇發(fā)展20.922.9-2.07.77.50.36000031.SZ大悅城19.413.06.46.04.31.77000656.SZ金科股份16.710.66.03.

36、72.71.08600606.SH綠地控股16.013.92.24.63.61.19600848.SH上海臨港15.55.110.38.23.64.610600466.SH藍(lán)光發(fā)展15.38.37.03.32.31.011600663.SH陸家嘴15.114.90.26.86.50.312600724.SH寧波富達(dá)14.716.4-1.79.84.94.913600064.SH南京高科14.37.86.410.77.03.714002146.SZ榮盛發(fā)展13.913.10.85.24.90.315600173.SH臥龍地產(chǎn)13.315.6-2.211.613.8-2.216600675.SH中

37、華企業(yè)13.112.01.28.26.81.417603506.SH南都物業(yè)13.014.7-1.713.514.6-1.118600533.SH棲霞建設(shè)12.93.09.94.41.82.619000029.SZ深深房 A12.712.40.312.912.00.820000036.SZ華聯(lián)控股12.716.4-3.79.312.6-3.321000517.SZ榮安地產(chǎn)12.79.33.45.45.6-0.222000042.SZ中洲控股12.411.21.24.84.00.723601155.SH新城控股12.314.6-2.33.76.0-2.324000961.SZ中南建設(shè)12.28.

38、43.83.22.21.125000046.SZ泛?？毓?1.68.82.82.61.90.726600383.SH金地集團(tuán)11.412.4-1.15.65.9-0.327000002.SZ萬科 A11.310.31.06.66.00.628600177.SH雅戈?duì)?1.29.31.86.44.91.529000732.SZ泰禾集團(tuán)10.57.92.61.81.50.330600007.SH中國國貿(mào)10.48.91.48.36.71.531600325.SH華發(fā)股份10.313.0-2.71.81.60.332600048.SH保利地產(chǎn)10.38.71.54.43.80.633000069.S

39、Z華僑城 A9.99.60.34.44.20.234000718.SZ蘇寧環(huán)球9.87.02.87.74.92.835000671.SZ陽光城9.47.81.61.71.40.336600641.SH萬業(yè)企業(yè)9.315.0-5.78.714.0-5.337000540.SZ中天金融8.525.9-17.33.87.3-3.538000631.SZ順發(fā)恒業(yè)8.414.0-5.67.29.9-2.739601588.SH北辰實(shí)業(yè)8.19.0-0.93.64.2-0.640600510.SH黑牡丹8.01.56.57.10.86.341600376.SH首開股份7.95.82.13.41.81.54

40、2000573.SZ粵宏遠(yuǎn) A7.9-2.810.75.6-1.77.343600266.SH北京城建7.53.24.23.41.22.244600223.SH魯商發(fā)展7.44.13.31.61.10.445600647.SH同達(dá)創(chuàng)業(yè)7.3-10.617.86.2-9.315.546000668.SZ榮豐控股7.20.66.74.90.34.647000006.SZ深振業(yè) A7.28.8-1.75.26.6-1.348600208.SH新湖中寶7.15.41.73.52.70.849600665.SH天地源7.111.1-4.01.72.7-1.050600648.SH外高橋7.16.50.6

41、4.03.60.451000736.SZ中交地產(chǎn)7.013.6-6.62.23.6-1.452600565.SH迪馬股份6.95.02.02.72.00.753001979.SZ招商蛇口6.712.2-5.52.85.3-2.554000560.SZ我愛我家6.65.90.86.45.70.755600639.SH浦東金橋6.56.50.04.04.5-0.556600823.SH世茂股份6.56.6-0.13.94.5-0.657002133.SZ廣宇集團(tuán)6.410.5-4.16.411.3-4.958600393.SH粵泰股份6.310.4-4.14.35.1-0.859000534.SZ

42、萬澤股份6.31.15.34.5-0.14.660600185.SH格力地產(chǎn)6.25.11.22.21.80.361000863.SZ三湘印象6.01.84.23.51.22.262600162.SH香江控股5.74.51.23.73.20.563002244.SZ濱江集團(tuán)5.54.90.65.06.0-1.064600895.SH張江高科5.25.30.03.53.7-0.365600622.SH光大嘉寶4.97.8-2.93.06.6-3.666002208.SZ合肥城建4.89.9-5.14.85.4-0.667600322.SH天房發(fā)展4.73.31.41.40.90.56800237

43、7.SZ國創(chuàng)高新4.54.50.04.34.3-0.169600708.SH光明地產(chǎn)4.39.2-4.81.43.4-2.070000402.SZ金融街4.33.50.82.41.90.571600748.SH上實(shí)發(fā)展4.32.91.42.52.40.172600743.SH華遠(yuǎn)地產(chǎn)3.84.0-0.21.31.30.073600094.SH大名城3.70.53.34.32.02.374000926.SZ福星股份3.76.4-2.82.12.6-0.475600736.SH蘇州高新3.35.4-2.13.04.1-1.176600246.SH萬通地產(chǎn)3.34.8-1.53.45.0-1.677

44、600067.SH冠城大通3.24.2-1.02.43.5-1.178000797.SZ中國武夷3.23.3-0.11.41.7-0.379000011.SZ深物業(yè) A3.15.0-1.82.04.0-2.080600657.SH信達(dá)地產(chǎn)3.16.2-3.21.82.9-1.081000043.SZ中航善達(dá)2.918.2-15.32.58.1-5.682000090.SZ天健集團(tuán)2.92.70.11.51.50.083600215.SH長春經(jīng)開2.63.1-0.42.23.0-0.984600649.SH城投控股2.64.6-2.01.83.5-1.785600692.SH亞通股份2.44.9

45、-2.52.64.7-2.186000056.SZ皇庭國際2.22.8-0.63.13.10.087000620.SZ新華聯(lián)2.24.7-2.51.72.0-0.388600658.SH電子城2.24.7-2.61.93.4-1.589600773.SH西藏城投2.12.20.00.91.4-0.590000909.SZ數(shù)源科技1.92.6-0.72.94.0-1.191600515.SH海航基礎(chǔ)1.83.8-2.01.62.8-1.292000838.SZ財(cái)信發(fā)展1.61.30.30.00.3-0.493600791.SH京能置業(yè)1.56.7-5.21.32.9-1.794600684.SH

46、珠江實(shí)業(yè)1.59.9-8.42.13.2-1.195002285.SZ世聯(lián)行1.27.2-6.01.25.7-4.596000667.SZ美好置業(yè)1.14.1-3.00.31.9-1.697600807.SHST 天業(yè)1.1-102.1103.12.20.12.198600082.SH海泰發(fā)展1.00.10.92.20.31.999002314.SZ南山控股1.03.4-2.41.43.9-2.6100600638.SH新黃浦0.82.9-2.11.43.0-1.6101600716.SH鳳凰股份0.8-0.91.71.00.80.2102002305.SZ南國置業(yè)0.70.70.01.10.

47、21.0103600159.SH大龍地產(chǎn)0.5-1.41.90.5-1.11.7104000514.SZ渝開發(fā)0.40.40.00.91.3-0.4105600604.SH市北高新0.31.0-0.61.11.00.1106600095.SH哈高科0.3-0.40.71.2-2.84.0107000616.SZ海航投資-0.17.9-8.00.14.7-4.6108000965.SZ天保基建-0.67.2-7.70.35.7-5.5109600568.SH中珠醫(yī)療-0.70.4-1.1-1.10.3-1.4110000502.SZ綠景控股-0.928.2-29.1-1.423.5-24.911

48、1600683.SH京投發(fā)展-1.03.5-4.41.01.2-0.2112600503.SH華麗家族-1.01.0-1.90.01.1-1.1113000014.SZ沙河股份-1.30.3-1.6-1.30.6-2.0114000608.SZ陽光股份-1.5-0.2-1.3-21.50.7-22.2115000506.SZ中潤資源-1.60.9-2.40.30.7-0.3116000809.SZ鐵嶺新城-1.60.4-2.00.10.8-0.7117600077.SH宋都股份-1.74.5-6.2-0.81.7-2.5118600463.SH空港股份-2.2-0.3-1.9-1.00.3-1

49、.3119000615.SZ京漢股份-2.30.3-2.60.60.10.4120000897.SZ*ST 津?yàn)I-3.2-3.2-0.1-1.4-1.0-0.4121002147.SZST 新光-3.51.5-5.01.02.2-1.2122000981.SZST 銀億-4.75.0-9.7-0.84.8-5.5123000558.SZ萊茵體育-4.91.5-6.3-1.71.6-3.3124000609.SZ中迪投資-5.3-0.4-4.9-4.7-0.7-4.0125000691.SZ亞太實(shí)業(yè)-8.014.4-22.4-4.910.8-15.7126600890.SH中房股份-9.0-11

50、.92.9-9.5-12.32.9127000918.SZ嘉凱城-13.6-11.3-2.31.6-1.32.8128000679.SZ大連友誼-16.4-12.5-3.90.30.10.2129600239.SH云南城投-21.14.3-25.40.43.1-2.7130600225.SH天津松江-24.4-17.6-6.81.11.7-0.6131600240.SH*ST 華業(yè)-2.0-94.9-6.9-88.0資料來源: Wind、 整理（以上數(shù)據(jù)僅作列示，不做推薦）負(fù)債水平保持穩(wěn)定截至 2019 年三季度末，板塊凈負(fù)債率為 99.7%，較 2019 年中期下降 0.2 個(gè)百分點(diǎn)；剔除預(yù)

51、收賬款后的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債率 59.5%，較 22019 年中期下降 1 個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，行業(yè)負(fù)債水平保持穩(wěn)定；貨幣資金/（短期借款+一年內(nèi)到期的非流動(dòng)負(fù)債）為1.1，板塊短期償債能力維持穩(wěn)定的水平。圖 5：行業(yè)負(fù)債水平變化情況圖 6：短期償債能力變化情況板塊凈負(fù)債率板塊剔除預(yù)收賬款后的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債率板塊短期償債能力保障倍數(shù)120%100%80%60%40%20%0%64%62%60%58%56%54%52%50%48%46%1.71.61.51.41.31.21.11.02016/9/302017/6/302018/3/312018/12/312019/9/30資料來源: Wind、 整理資料來源: Wind

52、、 整理截至 2019 年三季度末，板塊 131 家公司中，剔除預(yù)收款的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債率低于行業(yè)整體水平的占比 79%，凈負(fù)債率低于行業(yè)整體水平的占比 72%，短期償債能力高于 1 的占比 51%。表 4：房地產(chǎn)板塊 2019 前三季負(fù)債水平及短期償債能力一覽證券代碼證券簡稱凈負(fù)債率剔除預(yù)收賬款后的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債率短期償債能力保障倍數(shù)1600215.SH長春經(jīng)開-42.1%6.7%-2600641.SH萬業(yè)企業(yè)-22.0%8.3%117.23600890.SH中房股份-33.9%9.0%-4600052.SH浙江廣廈-53.1%9.2%-5000502.SZ綠景控股-35.2%13.7%295.76600

53、173.SH臥龍地產(chǎn)-110.2%16.5%-7600503.SH華麗家族8.2%16.6%88.38600568.SH中珠醫(yī)療-14.7%17.7%8.69000014.SZ沙河股份-14.1%17.8%6.810000631.SZ順發(fā)恒業(yè)-96.6%19.0%131.311600095.SH哈高科-0.5%20.9%1.012600716.SH鳳凰股份-2.8%21.2%-13002377.SZ國創(chuàng)高新-8.6%21.5%2.214000897.SZ*ST 津?yàn)I44.9%23.2%0.515002208.SZ合肥城建7.8%27.0%1.916000616.SZ海航投資-33.1%28.2

54、%19.717000029.SZ深深房 A-45.0%28.2%31.618000965.SZ天?；?3.2%28.4%4.919000514.SZ渝開發(fā)-7.7%29.1%18.020600246.SH萬通地產(chǎn)3.3%32.5%11.521000718.SZ蘇寧環(huán)球9.2%32.7%2.722600724.SH寧波富達(dá)20.3%33.4%1.523600647.SH同達(dá)創(chuàng)業(yè)-65.7%34.6%-24000863.SZ三湘印象48.9%34.6%1.225600007.SH中國國貿(mào)22.8%35.7%200.326000609.SZ中迪投資-4.6%36.0%-27000006.SZ深振業(yè)

55、 A-8.6%36.4%6.428600077.SH宋都股份11.3%37.4%10.529000615.SZ京漢股份36.4%37.5%0.730600159.SH大龍地產(chǎn)-22.3%38.1%-31000608.SZ陽光股份36.6%38.2%0.732600565.SH迪馬股份64.7%38.4%0.833000517.SZ榮安地產(chǎn)60.6%38.5%2.034002244.SZ濱江集團(tuán)62.6%38.6%1.935000667.SZ美好置業(yè)78.2%39.1%0.636603506.SH南都物業(yè)-38.0%39.4%-37600048.SH保利地產(chǎn)82.3%40.4%2.3386006

56、49.SH城投控股38.9%40.7%1.639000838.SZ財(cái)信發(fā)展141.1%41.0%0.540000573.SZ粵宏遠(yuǎn) A1.7%41.1%2.841600510.SH黑牡丹21.9%41.6%1.742601155.SH新城控股61.6%41.8%1.743600064.SH南京高科1.2%41.9%0.944600463.SH空港股份32.1%42.0%0.445000036.SZ華聯(lián)控股-61.5%42.2%-46600082.SH海泰發(fā)展31.6%42.3%0.247002133.SZ廣宇集團(tuán)28.2%43.0%2.648002147.SZST 新光40.8%43.2%0.

57、049002016.SZ世榮兆業(yè)-41.4%43.3%3.750000011.SZ深物業(yè) A-39.3%43.5%-51600638.SH新黃浦30.9%43.7%-52000961.SZ中南建設(shè)175.6%44.1%1.653000809.SZ鐵嶺新城70.0%44.6%0.054000560.SZ我愛我家-1.6%44.8%1.755000691.SZ亞太實(shí)業(yè)-3.3%44.9%1.656600094.SH大名城57.0%45.0%1.157600748.SH上實(shí)發(fā)展82.3%47.0%0.858000537.SZ廣宇發(fā)展138.0%47.0%0.859600466.SH藍(lán)光發(fā)展102.1

58、%47.3%1.560002146.SZ榮盛發(fā)展98.7%47.6%0.861000981.SZST 銀億67.1%47.7%0.162600177.SH雅戈?duì)?9.1%47.9%0.863000558.SZ萊茵體育59.6%48.0%0.464600067.SH冠城大通59.4%48.0%0.865000534.SZ萬澤股份40.4%48.0%0.766000656.SZ金科股份144.3%48.0%1.167000002.SZ萬科 A50.4%49.2%1.768601588.SH北辰實(shí)業(yè)78.8%49.3%2.169600658.SH電子城52.1%49.4%0.970002314.SZ

59、南山控股46.8%49.5%1.671600383.SH金地集團(tuán)60.1%49.8%2.072001979.SZ招商蛇口62.4%50.1%1.373600657.SH信達(dá)地產(chǎn)105.4%50.5%0.874000090.SZ天健集團(tuán)26.3%51.1%2.175600675.SH中華企業(yè)13.7%51.1%5.176000506.SZ中潤資源38.5%51.2%0.277000042.SZ中洲控股91.1%51.3%1.378600162.SH香江控股44.4%51.5%1.679600515.SH海航基礎(chǔ)18.3%51.6%1.380600606.SH綠地控股173.0%51.6%0.98

60、1600622.SH光大嘉寶49.2%52.8%2.882600791.SH京能置業(yè)75.8%53.1%0.483000736.SZ中交地產(chǎn)150.3%54.1%2.784000056.SZ皇庭國際78.2%54.1%0.185000797.SZ中國武夷75.1%54.3%0.586600895.SH張江高科71.8%54.3%0.687600639.SH浦東金橋72.1%54.3%0.688600736.SH蘇州高新66.4%54.5%2.689600692.SH亞通股份52.1%54.6%0.790002285.SZ世聯(lián)行2.5%54.6%1.191600340.SH華夏幸福202.8%5