轉(zhuǎn)型投資：將全球系統(tǒng)性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)轉(zhuǎn)化為可持續(xù)回報(bào)

1、ContentsTOC o 1-2 h z u HYPERLINK l _TOC_250028 Foreword 4 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250027 Preface 5 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250026 Executive summary 6 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250025 Transforming through uncertainty 6 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250024 Governance framework 7 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250023 Global systemic trends 8 HYPERLIN

2、K l _TOC_250022 Introduction 8 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250021 Case study insights 8 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250020 Where trends collide 10 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250019 A roadmap and decision-making framework for governance 11 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250018 Progress towards governance for global systemic risks 12 HYPERLINK l

3、_TOC_250017 Active industry initiatives next steps to continue progress 14 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250016 Transformational investment opportunities and challenges 15 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250015 Introduction 15 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250014 Climate change 16 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250013 Water security 17 HYPERLINK l _TOC_

4、250012 Geopolitical stability 18 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250011 Technological evolution 18 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250010 Demographic shifts 19 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250009 Global low and negative real long-term interest rates 20 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250008 Navigating the roadmap 22 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250007 Critical questi

5、ons and practical examples 22 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250006 Conclusion 24 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250005 Appendices 25 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250004 The governance roadmap steps explained 25 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250003 Case studies 27 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250002 Acknowledgements 34 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250001 Contributors 36 HYPE

6、RLINK l _TOC_250000 Endnotes 37ForewordJos Vials, Group Chairman, Standard CharteredAfsaneh Beschloss, Founder and Chief Executive Officer, RockCreekThe need to address the long-term global systemic risks facing our economy, society and the planet has arguably never been greater. This report based u

7、pon casework done in 2019 predating the global COVID-19 pandemic represents an important step on the journey to effective collective action by the institutional asset owner community and the financial services industry.This work creates a context for asset owners by laying the foundations for consid

8、eration of the most challenging global investment issues of our time. As economies and markets evolve, so do the inherent complexities that create opportunity and risk for investors and asset owners worldwide. We believe more sophisticated, adaptable and precise financial service solutions are neede

9、d to achieve long-term sustainable economic development, and to do so without negative impacts for society or the environment on which economic progress depends.The insights within this report reflect those of a global community of sophisticated universal shareholders convened throughout 2019 and re

10、present diverse vantage points. The scale, sophistication and investment time horizons of these asset owners gives them perspective on where to access investment opportunity and how to address global systemic risks at a policy and investment level.The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, which is tangib

11、ly illustrating the interconnected risks and real-time nature of our global economy, is covered in limited ways given the rapidly evolving nature of the crisis. Thoughtful application of this papers framework during 2020 and beyond will lead to new insights on how the global investment community can

12、 improve and support society and sustainable economic development going forward against the threat of evolving global systemic risks.We want to thank the World Economic Forum and Mercer for their work in preparing this report, convening insightful investors from around the world and creating a tangi

13、ble framework that investors can use when thinking through challenging investment trends.PrefaceRich Nuzum, President, Investments & Retirement, MercerMaha Eltobgy, Head of Shaping the Future of Investing; Member of the Executive Committee, World Economic ForumThe members of the institutional invest

14、ment community manage assets worth tens of trillions of dollars, wielding significant influence on global business practices. They engage with substantial risks and transformative opportunities and currently are also attempting to manage the economic and financial market impacts of COVID-19. The unf

15、olding impact of the COVID-19 pandemic (the crisisis ongoing at the time of publication of this report) serves as a reminder of the critical importance of understanding complex, interconnected and systemic risks and their real-time effects on the global economy. In the decisions they make when alloc

16、ating capital to countries, industries and individual businesses, the members of the institutional investment community have the collective power to champion long-term thinking, constructively tackle complicated problems and bring positive changes to our economy, society and the planet all while pur

17、suing attractive risk-adjusted investment returns.The World Economic Forum has gathered key influencers from this community to further shape long- term perspectives and support a sustainable global economy. Through in-person meetings in Dalian, New York and Abu Dhabi throughout 2019 and at Davos in

18、2020, chief executive officers and chief investment officers identified some of the worlds most pressing challenges and discussed their ability to act as champions of long-term thinking and action.The World Economic Forums multistakeholder platform and network positions it to contribute to this topi

19、c holistically. Collaborating with the World Economic Forum, Mercer acted as lead partner on this initiative, drawing insights from its investment clients and global investment research.Produced as part of the World Economic Forums Platform on Shaping the Future of Investing, this report explores re

20、al case studies of transformational investments and the governance practices long-term investors are already using to address global systemic risks. It draws on previous World Economic Forum work, including HYPERLINK /whitepapers/thinking-strategically-using-resource-revenues-to-invest-in-a-sustaina

21、ble-future Thinking Strategically: Using Resource Revenues to Invest in a HYPERLINK /whitepapers/thinking-strategically-using-resource-revenues-to-invest-in-a-sustainable-future Sustainable Future.This work explores forward-looking investment practices that provide leaders with the tools, networks a

22、nd scale to address the most critical risks and challenges that confront our global economy, society and the planet. We would like to thank the investors, policy-makers, academics and other experts who have contributed to this work.Executive summaryTransforming through uncertaintyThe impacts of a sp

23、ecific corporations behaviour on the environment, the economy and society have historically been viewed as “externalities”. In the absence of explicit regulation (such as fines, taxation or subsidies), these “ancillary” or “indirect” impacts have generally not been factored into the pricing of indiv

24、idual securities because they are not expected to “show up” in the near-term cash flows of that security.Global stakeholders governments, corporations, individuals, universal shareholders (see inset) have a vested interest in these externalities. Collective behaviour produces, or fails to mitigate,

25、long-term global systemic risks that threaten the continued smooth and sustainable operation of our society, the economy or the planet.Perhaps the most obvious of these risks, one that has already been the subject of substantial research, is climate change driven by human-initiated carbon emissions.

26、 Water security, geopolitical stability,technological evolution, demographic shifts and low and negative interest rates can also be evaluated as long-term global systemic risks.All of these risks have characteristics in common. In particular, adequate responses require more than changing the behavio

27、ur of one government, one corporation or one individual. Collective action isnecessary. As will be demonstrated through the specific case studies and more general qualitative discussion in this report, universal shareholders have great capacity to pursue transformational investments to mitigate thes

28、e risks, while capturing attractive risk-adjusted investment returns. They are doing so in practice now, and theseefforts are scaling as larger numbers of investors become better aligned and more involved. When individual universal shareholders act collaboratively, they can produce greater impact, f

29、aster; and this dynamic is driving a growing recognition of the importance of collective action by institutional asset owners.In this paper, we focus on transformational investment from the viewpoint of the institutional asset owner community the investor perspective. Recipients of transformational

30、investment can include countries and cities that require capital and technology transfer to address these risks locally, and thus our conclusions are also relevant for these stakeholders the investee (or “recipient”) perspective.Universal shareholdersWe define a “universal shareholder” as an investo

31、r who holds a well-diversified portfolio of securities, with a long- term investment time horizon.For this type of shareholder, a negative or positive externality produced by one corporation becomes a cost or benefit in terms of the productive capacity of society as a whole. The extent of its positi

32、ve or negative impact ultimately affects the future cash flow of other corporations whose securities are held by the universal shareholder.As a result, activities that were historically viewed as externalities at the level of an individual security need to be “internalized” or factored into investme

33、nt decisions explicitly as relates to the owners overall portfolio. This is necessary because these “externalities” have a direct impact on the sustainability of investment outcomes within the universal shareholders broadly diversified investment portfolio.Transformational investmentWe define a “tra

34、nsformational investment” as an investment that is intended to derive an attractive risk-adjusted expected return within the context of a given asset owners overall portfolio, and at the same time is expected to help mitigate or address one or more long-term risks.Evaluating any one of the long-term

35、 global systemic risks on its own is a challenge, but taking interrelationships between the risks into account makes the task harder still. In addition, investors may be affected in different ways by a given risk depending on their specific circumstances and context.The effects of a risk can go beyo

36、nd its impact on the funds investment returns, as the funding entity and individual beneficiaries may also be affected directly or indirectly by the risk, separately from the investment outcomes. There is therefore a need to consider and analyse the appropriateapproach for any specific investor holi

37、stically and broadly, as we will illustrate.The challenges are magnified by the fact that conventions for the measurement and disclosure of most of these risks are either undeveloped or in the early stages of adoption.If any of this were easy or simple, the available returns would be lower. With tha

38、t said, the most sophisticated transformational investors have blazed a clear trail, which other investors can follow to potentially garner sustainable returns while mitigating systemic risks. Because of thegrowing recognition of the potential benefit of collective action for universal shareholders,

39、 the pioneers of transformational investment generally welcome other investors following in their footsteps. Being early, and then being proven right is a recipefor sustainable outperformance in investing in general. For early adopters of transformational investment, seeing other asset owners follow

40、 isnt just an instance of the adage that imitation is the greatest form of flattery; following in this way provides liquidity, helps drive the cost of investment down through scale and helps produce the positive externalities that helped motivate the early adopters to pursue the investment in the fi

41、rst place or mitigate the negative externalities. In short, transformational investment is one of the areas of economic activity in which collaboration helps produce better results.Global systemic trends identified as most relevant to long-term investors, for the purposes of this reportClimate chang

42、eWater securityGeopoliticsTechnological evolutionDemographic shiftsLow and negative real long-term interest ratesCase study contributorsBritish Columbia Investment Management CorporationIreland Strategic Investment FundMubadala Investment CompanyNew Zealand Superannuation FundSunsuperUSS Investment

43、ManagementOther contributorsAsset ownersAsset managersFinancial institutionsAcademicsThe interrelationships between risks, while introducing complexity, also make it possible to address some risks simultaneously through a single investment action. For example, some types of infrastructure, venture c

44、apital and cleantech investments can serve as transformationalinvestments for mitigating the risks associated with climate change, geopolitical stability and/or technology evolution.While transformational investment may be moving from the cutting edge towards an acknowledged best practice,there rema

45、ins substantial scope for further innovation on the product development side. We believe there is a shortage of available products and opportunities for sovereign wealth fundsGovernance framework(SWFs) and other large asset owners to implement or execute their investment policies to mitigate these r

46、isks. An applicable example is the need to increase the supply of sustainability- related products and opportunities in a way that enables investors to find attractive risk-adjusted rates of return while mobilizing the needed volumes of capital to address climate change. The scope for deploying addi

47、tional capital against these risks remains large. “Transformational investment gaps” can be estimated for each of the different risks. For example, we believe at least $6.2 trillion per annum is needed for the combination of climate, water and demographics transition strategies alone.From the invest

48、ee (or recipient) standpoint, demand for transformational investment is particularly evident among emerging and frontier countries. However, most of these countries continue to struggle to attract the required capital for planned sustainable development particularly in infrastructure. A growing supp

49、ly of capital is available to invest in transformational investment opportunities that offer longduration profiles and diversification, but investor and beneficiary alignment remains lacking in most countries due to an inability to mitigate local political risk, ensure protection of ownership rights

50、 for investors and otherwise give investors confidence about the “rule of law”. Unfortunately, some of the geographies that most need transformational investment, and which could produce the strongest risk-adjusted returns for investors if political risk could be effectively mitigated, are the least

51、 able to attract investment.Through interactive sessions and the development of illustrative case studies with sophisticated investors around the globe, this report has been produced to support efforts to allocate capital to positively affect our planet and society while earning strong risk-adjusted

52、 investment returns. Specifically, the report documents an established pathway for long-term investors to convert systemic risk uncertainty into sustainable investment opportunities.This report:Identifies six global systemic risks that affect global asset owners (additionally, pandemic risk with the

53、 specific example of COVID-19 is addressed in a paper supplementing this report)1Summarizes case study insights from large asset ownersIntroduces a governance and decision-making framework (see illustration below), providing a pathway for investors to become experienced in translating risks into opp

54、ortunities, while imposing discipline through holistic risk management including a robust monitoring frameworkDescribes potential future industry initiatives that willfurther improve governance and enhance the ability of long- term investors to respond to these six systemic risks1.Understand2. Colla

55、boratethe overall impact onwith similarly situated the funding entity, organizations thatobjectives andare concerned aboutbeneficiaries.the same risks and opportunities.3. Designgovernance, policies, delegation and accountabilities for material systemic risks.4. Invest5. Transform6. Monitorto manage

56、 thethrough drivingand revisit. Apply portfolios exposurean investment learnings to improve to the globalstrategy that aims topolicies andsystemic risk.deliver cesses.Global systemic trendsIntroductionAsset owners and investment managers face an evolving set of long-term risks and challeng

57、es, accompanied by opportunities for transformational investment. Some of these risks are not easily captured within conventional investment and risk management frameworks. These risks share characteristics including:A long time horizon with widespread, sometimes global, impactsLack of accepted stan

58、dards for measurement, andPotential for adverse impact on:Ability of long-term investors to achieve their objectives and/orEconomic stability of the funding entityThe World Economic Forum Global Risks Report 20202 highlights the most significant risks faced by the world today. From this report, we f

59、ocus on six key global systemic risks identified as most relevant to long-term investors.These six risks have varying importance to different asset owners based upon each funds objectives, policy mandates, capital adequacy and governing structures.Implications of ageing populations globally, demogra

60、phic imbalances between rapidly ageing regions, those entering demographic transition and the impact of migration.Demographic shiftsRisks and opportunity associated with technological advances, inadequate infrastructure and networks, and cyberattacks.Technological evolutionImplications of rising glo