國際貿(mào)易第四章

1、Chapter 4Factor Endowment Factor Availability and Factor Proportions Are KeyChapter Structure1. Heckscher-Ohlin model2. Three Implications of the H-O Theory3. Empirical Evidence on H-O Theory 1 要素稟賦理論 Heckscher-Ohlin model Used to solve problems left behind by Ricardo: Reasons for comparative cost d

2、ifference. Put forward by Swedish Economists Heckscher and Ohiler, so it is also call the Heckscher-Ohlin model, or H-O model, also known as factor endowment theory. It offers good explaining to international trade, so still works as main stream theory in international trade.伊菲赫克歇爾（ Eli F Heckscher,

3、1879-1959） 赫克歇爾生于瑞典斯德哥爾摩的一個猶太人家庭。1897 年起，在烏普薩拉大學(Uppsala University)跟耶爾納（Hjarne）學習歷史，跟戴維森（Davidson）學習經(jīng)濟，并于1907 年獲得博士學位。畢業(yè)后，他曾任斯德哥爾摩大學商學院的臨時講師；1909 年1929 年任經(jīng)濟學和統(tǒng)計學教授。此后，因他在科研方面的過人天賦，學校任命他為新成立的經(jīng)濟史研究所所長。對經(jīng)濟學的主要貢獻：經(jīng)濟理論的創(chuàng)新和在經(jīng)濟史研究引入定量研究方法。他成功地使經(jīng)濟史成為瑞典各大學的一門研究生課程。 在經(jīng)濟理論方法最主要的貢獻可以概括為他最著名的兩篇文章。 1919 年發(fā)表的外貿(mào)對收

4、入分配的影響是現(xiàn)代赫克歇爾俄林要素稟賦國際貿(mào)易理論的起源。他集中探討了各國資源要素稟賦構成與商品貿(mào)易模式之間的關系，并且，一開始就運用了一般均衡的分析方法。他認為，要素絕對價格的平均化是國際貿(mào)易的必然結果。他的論文具有開拓性的意義，其后，這個理論由他的學生俄林進一步加以發(fā)展。 間歇性免費商品（1924）一文提出的不完全競爭理論，比瓊羅賓遜和愛德華張伯侖的早了9 年。文章中還探討了不由市場決定價格的集體財富（即所謂的公共財物）的問題。 在經(jīng)濟史方面，赫克歇爾更享有盛名。主要著作有：大陸系統(tǒng)：一個經(jīng)濟學的解釋、重商主義、古斯塔夫王朝以來的瑞典經(jīng)濟史、歷史的唯物主義解釋及其它解釋、經(jīng)濟史研究等。赫克

5、歇爾通過對史料提出更廣泛的問題或假定，進行深入的批判性研究，從而在經(jīng)濟史和經(jīng)濟理論兩個方面架起了橋梁，并把兩者有機地結合起來。他是瑞典學派的主要人物之一。貝蒂俄林 Bertil Ohlin(Sweden) Stockholm School of EconomicsStockholm, Sweden1899 - 1979 俄林（Bertil Gotthard Ohlin,1899-1979） 1899 年4 月俄林生于瑞典南方的一個小村子。他早年就讀于隆德大學和斯德哥爾摩大學（University ofStockholm)，后來又赴英國劍橋大學和美國哈佛大學留學。1924 年任丹麥哥本哈根大學經(jīng)

6、濟學教授，5 年后回瑞典任斯德哥爾摩大學商學院教授，曾在美國佛吉尼亞和加利福尼亞大學任客座教授。憑著對國際貿(mào)易理論的現(xiàn)代化處理獲得1977 年諾貝爾經(jīng)濟學獎。1979 年8 月于書桌前逝世。 俄林不僅是一位經(jīng)濟學家，還是瑞典著名的政治活動家。他一直雄心勃勃，希望有朝一日能爬上首相的寶座。他剛?cè)嗡沟赂鐮柲?jīng)濟學院經(jīng)濟學教授不久，就當上自由青年協(xié)會的主席，一舉成為政壇上引人注目的活躍人物。1938年，俄林當選議會議員。1944年，他出任瑞典主要反對黨自由黨的主席。同年，在聯(lián)合政府中任貿(mào)易部部長。他連任自由黨主席達23年之久。但是，使他失望的是，他想當首相的宿愿一直沒有實現(xiàn)。 馳騁政壇并未使俄林中斷

7、對經(jīng)濟學的研究。他不負盛名，探索不止。自進入政界之后，他不僅擴大了研究范圍，寫出了大量論著，而且多次出國講學。 他的研究成果主要表現(xiàn)在國際貿(mào)易理論方面。 1924年出版國際貿(mào)易理論，1933 年出版其名著，即美國哈佛大學出版的區(qū)間貿(mào)易和國際貿(mào)易論，1936年出版國際經(jīng)濟的復興（International EconomicReconstruction)，1941 年出版資本市場和利率政策等。俄林的理論受他的老師赫克歇爾關于生產(chǎn)要素比例的國際貿(mào)易理論的影響，并在美國哈佛大學教授威廉（T.H.Williams）的指導下，結合瓦爾拉斯和卡塞爾的一般均衡理論進行分析論證，在區(qū)間貿(mào)易和國際貿(mào)易論中最終形成

8、。因此，俄林的國際貿(mào)易理論又被稱為赫克歇爾俄林理論。Assumptions1. Two nations, two products, two factors ( L and K ), 2 22 model. 2. Fixed Endowment, free mobility of factor domestically, non-mobility internationally.3.Same technical level between two nations ( Same production function, same endowment for same products in tw

9、o nations)Two Notions:Factor intensityFactor abundance 要素豐裕度（對國家而言） Factor Abundance：一國的資源擁有狀況，即一國的要素稟賦狀況。 如果一個國家的勞動力相對于其它要素的比例比其它國家更高，我們稱其為勞動力豐裕型的國家。要素密集度（對產(chǎn)品而言） Factor Intensity：是指單位產(chǎn)品生產(chǎn)中某種要素投入比例的大小。如果某種要素投入比例大，稱為該要素密集程度高。這是個相對概念而非絕對概念，是衡量生產(chǎn)中要素之間的比例，不是要素與產(chǎn)出的比例。 兩個國家都生產(chǎn)X和Y商品，都使用兩種生產(chǎn)要素K和L。如果生產(chǎn)Y時的KL（

10、要素配合比例）大于生產(chǎn)X的KL，就稱Y是資本密集型商品，X為勞動密集型商品。 即 則y是資本密集型產(chǎn)品，x 是勞動密集型產(chǎn)品（L-intensive）Heckscher-Ohlin TheoremEach country exports the good intensive in the countrys abundant factor, and imports the good intensive in the countrys scarce factor.兩國要素稟賦不同，導致兩國要素價格不同要素價格差異導致生產(chǎn)成本差異生產(chǎn)成本差異導致同種產(chǎn)品在兩國的價格差異同種產(chǎn)品在不同國家價格的差異導

11、致國際貿(mào)易發(fā)生兩國要素密集度和要素豐裕度的差異形成了不同產(chǎn)品的比較優(yōu)勢 一國的要素豐裕度要素的價格 商品的價格 貿(mào)易流向 商品的要素密集度 舉例分析： 國 名要 素 價 格商 品商品的要素密集度總成本勞動土地勞動土地日本1日元4日元小 麥1521日元紡織品10114日元澳大利亞2澳元 1澳元小 麥157澳元紡織品10121澳元Heckscher-Ohlin Theorem:Based by H-O theory, the differences are resulted from (1) differences across countries in the availability of f

12、actor resources; (2) differences across products in the use of these factors in producing the products. A country will export the product which uses its abundant factor intensively and import the product which uses its scarce factor intensively. Three Implications of the H-O Theory1. Winner vs. Loos

13、er Under Free TradeIn the Short Run, gains and losses divide by output sector: all groups tied to rising sectors gain, and all groups tie to declining sectors lose. 在短期內(nèi)，受益者與受損者以產(chǎn)出品所處于的產(chǎn)業(yè)而劃分：所有與上升產(chǎn)業(yè)相聯(lián)系的集團都將有所受益，而所有與下降產(chǎn)業(yè)相聯(lián)系的集團都將有所損失。1. Winner vs. Looser Under Free TradeIn the long run, factors can mo

14、ve between sectors in response to differences in returns. 從長期來看，各種要素會對各個產(chǎn)業(yè)收益之差作出反應，其方式就是在各個產(chǎn)業(yè)之間進行流動 1. Winner vs. Looser Under Free Trade1. Winner vs. Looser Under Free Trade1. Winner vs. Looser Under Free Trade Trade makes some people absolutely better off and others absolutely worse off in each of

15、 the trading countries. The gainers and the losers in the short run are somewhat different from those in the long run, because more adjustment (factor movement and price adjustment) can occur in the long run.2. Three Implications of the H-O Theory2.1 The Stolper-Samuelson Theorem 2.2 The Specialized

16、-Factor Pattern 2.3 The Factor-Price Equalization Theorem Expansion of H-O modelInternational trade affects price production and consumption, but will it also affect the factor payoff and price? Basing on H-O model, we solve problems of trade to income distribution. Stolper-Samuelson TheoremFactor P

17、ayoff= Price（P）Marginal products of factors（MP）Value of marginal products （VMP）W = PMPLR = PMPK2.1 The Stolper-Samuelson Theorem 赫克歇爾俄林模型的拓展國際貿(mào)易會影響商品的價格、生產(chǎn)和消費，對要素報酬和價格是否會有影響？以H-O模型為基礎，解決國際貿(mào)易對收入分配的影響問題。斯托爾珀薩繆爾森定理要素報酬的決定：生產(chǎn)要素報酬 = 產(chǎn)品價格（P）生產(chǎn)要素的邊際產(chǎn)品（MP）邊際產(chǎn)品價值（VMP）W = PMPLR = PMPKShort term: Factor non-mo

18、bilityBecause of non-mobility, trade will only affect price出口產(chǎn)品（X）價格上漲W = PXMPLW increasesR = PXMPKRincreasesAll export producers payoffs increase進口產(chǎn)品（Y）價格下跌W = PYMPLW DecreasesR = PYMPKRDecreasesAll import producers payoffs decreaseLong term: Because factors are mobile, trade not only affects price

19、, but also the marginal products.勞動密集型的出口行業(yè)報酬提高資本密集型的進口競爭行業(yè)的要素向出口行業(yè)流動進口競爭行業(yè)流出的資本比勞動多出口行業(yè)需要的勞動比資本多資本相對過剩，價格降低勞動相對稀缺，價格提高各行業(yè)投入更多資本，資本/勞動比率提高勞動生產(chǎn)率提高，資本生產(chǎn)率下降勞動的邊際產(chǎn)品增加，資本的邊際產(chǎn)品減少出口行業(yè)W = PXMPLPX上漲，MPL增加W提高R = PXMPKPX上漲，MPK減少R？進口競爭行業(yè)W = PYMPLPY下跌，MPL增加W？R = PYMPKPY下跌，MPK減少R下降Payoff of the factor intensively

20、 used by exporters will increasePayoff of the factor intensively used by importers will decreaseLabor market is in equilibrium before tradeWX = WY，RX = RYFactor market will also form equilibrium after tradeWX increases，WY also increases；RX decreases，RY also decreasesIn long term, after trade, Payoff

21、 of the factor intensively used by exporters will increase, and Payoff of the factor intensively used by importers will decrease, this is try in any industry. 貿(mào)易前國內(nèi)均衡狀態(tài)下，勞動市場是均衡的WX = WY，RX = RY貿(mào)易后要素市場也將形成均衡WX上漲，WY也會上漲；RX下降，RY也會下降長期來看，開展國際貿(mào)易后，出口產(chǎn)品生產(chǎn)中密集使用的生產(chǎn)要素的報酬會提高；進口產(chǎn)品生產(chǎn)中密集使用的生產(chǎn)要素報酬會減少。無論這些要素在哪個行業(yè)中使

22、用都是如此。斯托爾珀薩繆爾森定理 The Stolper-Samuelson Theorem Given certain conditions and assumptions, including full adjustment to a new long-run equilibrium, an event that changes product prices in a country unambiguously has two effects:it raises the real return to the factor used intensively in the rising-pri

23、ce industryit lowers the real return to the factor used intensively in the falling price industry. This result does not depend at all on how much of each product is consumed by the households of landowners and laborers.2.2 The Specialized-Factor PatternThe more a factor is specialized, or concentrat

24、ed, in the production of a product whose relative price is rising, the more this factor stands to gain from the change in the product price.The more a factor is concentrated into the production of a product whose relative price is falling, the more it stands to lose from the changes in product price

25、. 2.3 The Factor-Price Equalization Theorem Factor-price equalization theorem Given certain conditions and assumptions, free trade equalizes not only product prices but also the prices of individual factors between the two countries. Even if factors cannot migrate between countries directly, with fr

26、ee tradeLaborers (of the same skill level) earn the same wage rate in both countries and Units of land (of comparable quality) earn the same rental return in both countries.International Factor Price Equalization With the shift to free trade: For each factor, its rate of return becomes more similar

27、between countries. Under ideal conditions, its real rate of return is the same in different countries. Example: Labor. With no trade, the wage rate is high in the labor-scarce country. The wage rate is low in the labor-abundant country. With free trade, the import of labor-intensive products pushes

28、the wage-rate down in the labor-scarce country. The export of labor-intensive products pulls the wage rate up in the labor-abundant country. Explains the influence of trade among countries to the factor price in two countries. A國貿(mào)易前W低R高貿(mào)易后W提高R降低B國貿(mào)易前W高R低貿(mào)易后W降低R提高均等International Factor Price Equaliza

29、tion 3. Empirical Evidence on H-O Theory 3.1 Does Heckscher-Ohlin Explain Actual Trade Patterns? 3.2 Examination of Stolper-Samuelson Theorem 3.3 Do Factor Prices Equalize Internationally?Wassily LeontiefUSAHarvard UniversityCambridge, MA, USA1906 - 1999 3.1 Does Heckscher-Ohlin Explain Actual Trade

30、 Patterns? 3.1.1 The Leontief Paradox Wassily W Leontief（19061999）七歲上大學，讀遍列寧格勒圖書館的經(jīng)濟學書，成為一名優(yōu)秀的經(jīng)濟學家，1927離開蘇朕，任哈佛大學經(jīng)濟學教授，由于在投入產(chǎn)出學方面的杰出貢獻獲諾貝爾經(jīng)濟學獎。 1953年，他用美國1947年的貿(mào)易和生產(chǎn)統(tǒng)計資料：美國每生 產(chǎn)100萬美元的出口產(chǎn)品需投入225萬的資本和180八年的勞動，平均每人年勞動配合14300資本；美國每生產(chǎn)100萬的進口產(chǎn)品需投入309萬資本和170人年勞動，人均配合勞動18200資本，由此可見，美國出口產(chǎn)品相對于進口產(chǎn)品是勞動密集型產(chǎn)品。3.1

31、.1 The Leontief ParadoxTarget: The Trade Pattern Conclusion according to H-O TheorySample: The U.S.A., 1947Assumption: The U.S. economy at that time was capital-abundant (and labor-scarce) relative to the rest of the world- only two kinds of factorsMethod: He computed the ratios of capital stocks to

32、 numbers of workers in the U.S. export and import competing industries in 1947.(Kx / Lx）/ (Km/Lm) should be above 1 3.1.1 The Leontief Paradox ExportImport SubstitutesCapital$2550,780$3091,339Labor (man year)182170Capital/Labor$14010$18,1801947, U.S.A.Result: In 1947, the United States was exporting

33、 labor-intensive goods to the rest of the world in exchange for relatively capital-intensive imports.（Kx /Lx）/ (Km/Lm) = 0.77 3.1.1 The Leontief Paradox Leontief的檢驗結果、HO理論、人們的常識相矛盾。這三者之中必然有一個是錯誤的。但人們既不愿意放棄自己的常識假定，也不愿意否定H-O理論，同時也無法駁倒Leontief的檢驗結果，由此產(chǎn)生Leontief Paradox。 由于有人指責1947年正值二戰(zhàn)結束不久，貿(mào)易模式可能由于戰(zhàn)爭影響

34、未消除而遭到扭曲，于是1956年他再次用美國1951年的貿(mào)易和生產(chǎn)統(tǒng)計資料，具體數(shù)據(jù)不同，但結論相同。 Tests on U.S. DataLeontief found that U.S. exports were less capital-intensive than U.S. imports, even though the U.S. is the most capital-abundant country in the world.Tests on Global DataA study by Bowen, Leamer, and Sveikauskas tested the Hecksc

35、her-Ohlin model using data for a large number of countries.This study confirms the Leontief paradox on a broader level.Tests on North-South TradeNorth-South trade in manufactures seems to fit the Heckscher-Ohlin theory much better than the overall pattern of international trade.The Case of the Missi

36、ng TradeA study by Trefler in 1995 showed that technological differences across a sample of countries are very large.Implications of the TestsEmpirical evidence on the Heckscher-Ohlin model has led to the following conclusions:It has been less successful at explaining the actual pattern of internati

37、onal trade.It has been useful as a way to analyze the effects of trade on income distribution.列昂惕夫反論 （一）對美國對外貿(mào)易的分析 理論上：資本豐富，勞動力相對不足。應該出口資本密集型產(chǎn)品，進口勞動密集型產(chǎn)品。 實際上：出口勞動密集型產(chǎn)品，進口資本密集型產(chǎn)品。 （二）對其他國家外貿(mào)的分析 （三）列昂惕夫的理論貢獻 將經(jīng)濟理論、數(shù)學方法和經(jīng)驗統(tǒng)計相結合，運用定量分析工具的做法。 Explanations: 1、列昂惕夫本人提出的“勞動力非同質(zhì)論”。 2、要素密集度逆轉(zhuǎn) 同一商品，在不同的國家具有不同

38、的要素密集度。 3、需求對貿(mào)易的影響 美國市場偏好資本密集型產(chǎn)品進口。 4、關稅結構及對外貿(mào)易政策 鮑德溫：美國的對外貿(mào)易政策傾向于保護勞動密集型產(chǎn)業(yè)的出口，限制其進口。 5、自然資源的稀缺 凡涅克：美國土地稀缺土地的開發(fā)需大量資本投入相關產(chǎn)業(yè)即屬資本密集型。 3.1 Does Heckscher-Ohlin Explain Actual Trade Patterns? 3.1.2 Other Evidence Examining More than Two Types of Production FactorsComplete tests require information on: fa

39、ctor endowments international trade factor proportions 3.1 Does Heckscher-Ohlin Explain Actual Trade Patterns? 3.1.2 Other Evidence Examining More than Two Types of Production Factors International trade patterns broadly confirm the H-O prediction that nations tend to export the products using their

40、 abundant factors intensively. 3.2 What are the Export-Oriented and Import-Competing Factors? ( Examination of Stolper-Samuelson Theorem )The U.S. PatternThe Canadian PatternPatterns in Other Countries 3.3 Do Factor Prices Equalize Internationally?Proposition： Trade can equalize the price of each fa

41、ctor of production across countries.Edited Proposition: Does trade tend to make factor prices more similar across countries than they would be with not trade?Conclusion：Fuller Answers to the Four Trade Questions Why do countries Trade?David RicardoComparative Advantage TheoryHeckscher-Ohlincomparati

42、ve advantage in terms of underlying differences in factor endowmentsConclusion：Fuller Answers to the Four Trade Questions2. How does trade affect production and consumption in each country?Effects on Production: Within each country output expands for the product in which the country has a comparativ

43、e advantage.Effects on Consumption: Importable Productsincreasing Exportable Productsnot for sureConclusion：Fuller Answers to the Four Trade Questions3. Which country gains from trade? Both Countries gain. Each countrys net national gains are proportional to the change in its price from its no trade value, so the country whose prices are disrupted more by trade gains more.Conclusion：Fuller Answers to the Four Trade Questions4. Within each country, who are the gainers and losers from opening trade? In the short run, gains and losses divide by output sector: all groups tied to ris