國際期貨市場運作9FundamentalAnalysis

1、Chapter 9Fundamental Analysis1 The common element in all approaches to fundamental analysis is the study of the purported causes of price increases and price decreases in the hope of ascertaining changes prior to their occurrence.Do you know why traders carry a fundamental analysis?2SUPPLY AND DEMAN

2、DAnything that decreases supply will tend to raise prices, and anything that increases supply will tend to lower prices.3Price0Price and SupplyssEEQD4Price 0Price and DemandDDSEEQAs price goes up, consumption drops, and vice versa.5MARKET REPORTS The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) provides a

3、number of very thorough and generally accurate reports on daily, weekly, and monthly price movements. 6SEASONALITY If we study cash commodity prices over an extended period of time on a month-to-month basis, we find that during certain months of the year price tends to top, whereas during other mont

4、hs price tends to bottom. 7Monthly seasonal price tendency for corn8Weekly Corn Prices9 charting seasonal tendencies of futures prices on a week-to-week or day-to-day basis is more suited to the needs of the short-term trader than is the monthly cash seasonal.Seasonal Tendencies in Futures Prices10C

5、YCLIC PRICE CHANGES The cyclic method of analysis and forecasting has its roots in the work of Edward R. Dewey, founder of the Foundation for the Study of Cycles. 11Upside ReversalDown side ReversalTiming Signals, Upside and Downside Reversals12 Low-High Close High-Low CloseTiming Signals13“W” BOTTO

6、M“M” TOPTiming Signals on Closing Basis Charts14SECULAR TRENDS 長期趨勢 Less predictable than seasonal and cycles but significant nevertheless as an influence on prices are price trends resulting from long-term changes in supply and demand. 15 The government is an ever-present but often fickle influence

7、 on commodity prices. Government Price Support Programs16Political Influences Political decisions anywhere in the world may affect commodity prices significantly.17Monthly Futures Copper Prices 18OTHER FORCES AND FACTORS AFFECTING COMMODITY PRICES News of war can lead to hoarding as well as to a gre

8、ater demand for raw materials for defense and stockpiling. 19 When the economy is healthy, un employment is low, the experts are predicting prosperous times ahead, and business is expanding, demand tends to be high for commodities. General Business Conditions20 The Consumer Price Index (CPI), Produc

9、er Price Index (PPI) ,the Farm Price Index (FPI), the Dow Jones Averages, the Futures Price Indexes, the Reuters Spot Index.PRICE ANALYSIS21The Consumer Price Index (CPI) If these costs are rising, at the consumer level, it might indicate a rise in the inflation rate. The CPI is also called the cost

10、-of-living index.22What is the seasonal price pattern? What is the long-term price trend?What about government price supports?Expert subsidies? What are the figures on current production and carryover stocks? PRICE ANALYSIS23 Even the most sophisticated of systems will not be perfect. There will always be unexpected variables that the analy