商業(yè)信用信息在信貸風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析中的重要性：補(bǔ)全銀行的全面2

1、商業(yè)信用信息在信貸風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析中的重要性：補(bǔ)全銀行的“全面信貸表現(xiàn)信息 “How Trade Credit Data Can Complement the Bankers View of Credit History喬奇 C巴特斯 “征信產(chǎn)品在商業(yè)銀行信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理中的應(yīng)用國(guó)際研討會(huì) 天津 2007年6月 Presented at the Symposium on Credit Reporting and Retail & SME Banking, June 2007 Tianjin, Peoples Republic of China商業(yè)信息產(chǎn)業(yè)協(xié)會(huì)亞太和中東演講內(nèi)容 DISCUSSION TOP

2、ICS 前言 PREFACE關(guān)于兩個(gè)利益相關(guān)者的故事 THE CASE OF TWO STAKE HOLDERS信息孤島 ISLANDS OF INFORMATION錯(cuò)過(guò)的信號(hào) MISSED SIGNALS為什么需要商業(yè)信用信息貿(mào)易信息？ THE CASE FOR TRADE INFORMATION總結(jié) SUMMARY作為一個(gè)信息產(chǎn)業(yè)協(xié)會(huì)，我們致力于 INFORMATION INDUSTRY ASSOCIATION DEDICATED TO:提供一個(gè)中立、開(kāi)放的平臺(tái)，討論和解決有關(guān)最正確實(shí)踐的共同議題 Provide a Neutral Open Forum to Debate and Res

3、olve Common Issues about Best Demonstrated Practices展示信息對(duì)用戶和一國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的價(jià)值 Demonstrate the Value of Information for Users and National EconomiesBIIAchart amplified in following slideBIIA公共/私營(yíng)部門(mén)關(guān)系公共登記/法院記錄等數(shù)據(jù)再次使用政府關(guān)系知識(shí)產(chǎn)權(quán)數(shù)據(jù)平安隱私 未來(lái)趨勢(shì)：信貸市場(chǎng)營(yíng)銷(xiāo)供給鏈電子商務(wù)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)信息技術(shù)和通訊各國(guó)央行/世界銀行/國(guó)際貨幣基金組織/亞洲開(kāi)發(fā)銀行數(shù)據(jù)定義數(shù)據(jù)元素?cái)?shù)據(jù)傳送數(shù)據(jù)質(zhì)量信息內(nèi)容提供商信息共享行

4、為貿(mào)易數(shù)據(jù)定義質(zhì)量標(biāo)準(zhǔn)決策系統(tǒng)制造和效勞行業(yè)金融效勞出口密集型行業(yè)BIIA商業(yè)信息平臺(tái)倡導(dǎo)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)公共部門(mén)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)學(xué)術(shù)界監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)主要用戶私營(yíng)部門(mén)演講內(nèi)容 DISCUSSION TOPICS 前言 PREFACE關(guān)于兩個(gè)利益相關(guān)者的故事 THE CASE OF TWO STAKE HOLDERS銀行貸款 Bank Lending商業(yè)信用 Trade Credit關(guān)于兩個(gè)利益相關(guān)者的故事 THE CASE OF TWO STAKE HOLDERS AXZ公司2006年財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)表 Financial Statements AXZ Corporation 2006負(fù)債 Liabilities美元（百萬(wàn)） $ (

5、millions)流動(dòng)負(fù)債 Current Liabilities $ 2,305 短期借款 Short Term Borrowings $ 898 長(zhǎng)期債務(wù) Long Term Debt $ 3,128 其它負(fù)債 Other Liabilities $ 2,016 總負(fù)債 Total Liabilities $ 8,347 股東權(quán)益 Stockholders Equity $ 10,325 總負(fù)債和權(quán)益 Total Liabilities & Equitiy $ 18,672 商業(yè)信用 Trade Credit銀行貸款 Bank Loans兩個(gè)利益相關(guān)者 TWO STAKE HOLDERS

6、銀行貸款 Bank Lending商業(yè)信用 Trade Credit總信貸風(fēng)險(xiǎn)敞口 TOTAL CREDIT RISK EXPOSURE演講內(nèi)容 DISCUSSION TOPICS 前言 PREFACE關(guān)于兩個(gè)利益相關(guān)者的故事 THE CASE OF TWO STAKE HOLDERS信息孤島 ISLANDS OF INFORMATION信息孤島 ISLANDS OF INFORMATION 銀行數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù) BANK DATABASE銀行內(nèi)部系統(tǒng) BANK INTERNAL SYSTEMS信息公司數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)INFORMATIONCOMPANYDATABASE貿(mào)易信息 TRADE INFORMATION

7、 銀行征信機(jī)構(gòu)數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)BANK BUREAU DATABASE征信機(jī)構(gòu)系統(tǒng) CREDIT BUREAU SYSTEMS演講內(nèi)容 DISCUSSION TOPICS 前言 PREFACE關(guān)于兩個(gè)利益相關(guān)者的故事 THE CASE OF TWO STAKE HOLDERS信息孤島 ISLANDS OF INFORMATION錯(cuò)過(guò)的信號(hào) MISSED SIGNALS錯(cuò)過(guò)的信號(hào) MISSED SIGNALS一個(gè)金額達(dá)50億美元的銀行欺詐案 THE CASE OF A 5 BILLION BANK FRAUD負(fù)債 Liabilities 10,000貸款 Loans 10,000其它 Other 5,00

8、0權(quán)益 Equity 5,000總負(fù)債 Total Liabilities 30,000流動(dòng)資產(chǎn) CURR. ASSETS 10,000不動(dòng)產(chǎn) PROPERTIES 15,000其它 Other 5,000總資產(chǎn) Total ASSETS 30,000XYZ公司財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)表 XYZ CORP. FINANCIAL STATEMENTS被忽視的信號(hào) IGNORED SIGNALS錯(cuò)過(guò)的信號(hào) MISSED SIGNALS20042006 10 11 12 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 01 02 03 2005財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)表周期 FINANCIAL STATEMEN

9、TS CYCLE負(fù)債 Liabilities 10,000貸款 Loans 10,000其它 Other 5,000權(quán)益 Equity 5,000總負(fù)債 Total Liabilities 30,000流動(dòng)資產(chǎn) CURR. ASSETS 10,000不動(dòng)產(chǎn) PROPERTIES 15,000其它 Other 5,000總資產(chǎn) Total ASSETS 30,000YYY公司財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)表 YYY CORP. FINANCIAL STATEMENTS假定案例 Hypothetical Case錯(cuò)過(guò)的信號(hào) MISSED SIGNALS20042006假定情形 Hypothetical Case 10 1

10、1 12 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 01 02 03 還款指數(shù) PAYMENT INDEXYYY公司還款表現(xiàn) PAYMENT PERFORMANCE YYY CORP破產(chǎn)申請(qǐng) FILED BANKRUPTCYCumminscorp公司的案例 THE CASE OF COMMINSCORP LTD.在澳洲證券交易所上市時(shí)， Cumminscorp被歸類(lèi)為“中等風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的存托憑證 At the time of listing on the ASX, Cumminscorp was classified as a Moderate risk DRS.來(lái)源：鄧

11、白氏澳大利亞公司 Source: D&B AustraliaCumminscorp公司的案例 THE CASE OF COMMINSCORP LTD兩個(gè)月后，Cumminscorp被評(píng)為高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。再兩個(gè)月之后，其評(píng)級(jí)下降至“嚴(yán)重風(fēng)險(xiǎn)級(jí)別，隨后，該公司于2006年11月倒閉。公司倒閉前，2006年的財(cái)務(wù)賬目未公布。 Two months later, Cumminscorp was rated a High risk. A further two months later they were downgraded to Severe risk before failing in Nov 06. F

12、inancial accounts for 06 were not released before the company failed鄧白氏動(dòng)態(tài)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)分趨勢(shì)根據(jù)鄧白氏數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)中的可用信息計(jì)算出的歷史存托憑證和行業(yè)平均統(tǒng)計(jì)評(píng)分分?jǐn)?shù)CUMMINSCORP行業(yè)平均得分來(lái)源：鄧白氏澳大利亞公司 Source: D&B Australia演講內(nèi)容 DISCUSSION TOPICS 前言 PREFACE關(guān)于兩個(gè)利益相關(guān)者的故事 THE CASE OF TWO STAKE HOLDERS信息孤島 ISLANDS OF INFORMATION錯(cuò)過(guò)的信號(hào) MISSED SIGNALS為什么需要商業(yè)信用信息貿(mào)易

13、信息？ THE CASE FOR TRADE INFORMATION商業(yè)信用信息能夠補(bǔ)全銀行對(duì)借款人信貸表現(xiàn)的評(píng)估 COMPLEMENTING THE BANKERS VIEW ABOUT CREDIT PERFORMANCE 成功因素信息 SUCCESS FACTORS - INFORMATION%銀行信息 BANK INFORMATION商業(yè)信用信息 TRADE INFORMATION世界銀行2006年調(diào)查 World Bank Survey 2006公共部門(mén)數(shù)據(jù)強(qiáng)制披露規(guī)制框架銀行信息貿(mào)易信息數(shù)據(jù)質(zhì)量態(tài)度客戶教育效勞速度數(shù)據(jù)的實(shí)時(shí)性技術(shù)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)商業(yè)交換信息 TRADE INFORMATION

14、 EXCHANGE什么是商業(yè)信息交換？ WHAT IS IT?提供商業(yè)信用的企業(yè)與信息公司之間的信息交換 AN INFORMATION EXCHANGE BETWEEN TRADE CREDIT GRANTING ENTERPRISES AND AN INFORMATION COMPANY交換內(nèi)容 WHAT IS BEING EXCHANGED?月度應(yīng)收賬款余額帳齡MONTHLY ACCOUNTS RECEIVABLE BALANCES (AGING)正面和負(fù)面信息 POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE INFORMATION交換產(chǎn)生的結(jié)果 WHAT IS THE OUTPUT?預(yù)測(cè)性極

15、高的信息 HIGHLY PREDICTIVE INFORMATION貿(mào)易信息池 TRADE INFORMATION POOL商業(yè)信用信息的重要性 IMPORTANCE OF TRADE 銀行為什么要利用商業(yè)信用信息 WHY SHOULD A BANK USE IT?預(yù)測(cè)度 Level of Predictiveness商業(yè)信用信息是信貸風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)分中最重要的數(shù)據(jù)元素 TRADE INFORMATION IS THE MOST IMPORTANT DATA ELEMENT IN CREDIT RISK SCORES.來(lái)源：鄧白氏澳大利亞公司 Source: D&B Australia高低員工人數(shù)員工

16、人數(shù)員工規(guī)模行業(yè)過(guò)往經(jīng)營(yíng)失敗記錄回款經(jīng)營(yíng)時(shí)間判斷貿(mào)易收支財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)表行業(yè)過(guò)往經(jīng)營(yíng)失敗記錄財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)表經(jīng)營(yíng)時(shí)間回款判斷貿(mào)易收支及時(shí)性T和頻率F TIMELINESS AND FREQUENCY主要優(yōu)勢(shì)：可定期、及時(shí)地獲得貿(mào)易收支信息 Major Advantage: Trade Payment information is available on a regular basis and in a timely manner. 該優(yōu)勢(shì)在與財(cái)務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)相比較時(shí)更為明顯，因?yàn)楹笳咭话阒簧赡陥?bào)或最多是季報(bào) Especially when compared to financial data which is o

17、nly available on an annual basis or quarterly at best!10 11 12 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 01 02 03 TTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTFF商業(yè)信用信息 Trade Information財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)表周期 Financial Statement Cycle信貸風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)分的預(yù)測(cè)能力曲線 PREDICTIVE POWER CURVE OF CREDIT RISK SCORE該圖反映了一個(gè)典型的信貸風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)分模型的預(yù)測(cè)能力 Chart shows predictive power of a t

18、ypical credit risk scoring model 彎曲幅度越大，或與直線型隨機(jī)模型偏離越多，說(shuō)明評(píng)分對(duì)經(jīng)營(yíng)失敗的預(yù)測(cè)能力越強(qiáng) The more curve, or departure from the straight random model, indicates the scores ability to predict business failure當(dāng)包括了財(cái)務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)時(shí)，信貸評(píng)分的預(yù)測(cè)能力最強(qiáng) The credit score is most predictive when financials are included在沒(méi)有財(cái)務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)，但包括了貿(mào)易數(shù)據(jù)的情況下，評(píng)分的預(yù)測(cè)

19、表現(xiàn)與最正確模型表現(xiàn)根本相同 The score performs almost as well when trade is available通過(guò)模型識(shí)別出的“壞賬戶 占總數(shù)比例按分?jǐn)?shù)排名財(cái)務(wù)貿(mào)易無(wú)貿(mào)易隨機(jī)來(lái)源：鄧白氏澳大利亞公司 Source: D&B Australia更準(zhǔn)確的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)測(cè) HIGHER ACCURACY IN RISK PREDICTION商業(yè)信用信息貿(mào)易信息是信貸風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)分中的主要風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別因素，能幫助貸款人發(fā)現(xiàn)某些優(yōu)質(zhì)信貸客戶；這些客戶在不考慮商業(yè)信用信息時(shí)，會(huì)被認(rèn)定為是高風(fēng)險(xiǎn) Trade information is a key differentiator in cre

20、dit risk scores, it allows creditors to identify good credit accounts which may otherwise have been assessed as high risk評(píng)分分布 Score Distribution來(lái)源：鄧白氏澳大利亞公司 Source: D&B Australia占被評(píng)企業(yè)百分比最低很低低一般較高高很高嚴(yán)重有貿(mào)易信息 無(wú)貿(mào)易信息風(fēng)險(xiǎn)理想的信貸運(yùn)作 OPTIMAL LENDING支付評(píng)分中的商業(yè)信用信息貿(mào)易信息能使信貸評(píng)估更準(zhǔn)確，更能識(shí)別出高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和低風(fēng)險(xiǎn)客戶 Trade information in pa

21、yment scores results in a more accurate credit assessment and higher ability to identify both high and low risk accounts.評(píng)分分布 Score Distribution0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%MinimalVery LowLowAverageHighSevereRisk% of BusinessesWith TradeWithoutTrade來(lái)源：鄧白氏澳大利亞公司 Source: D&B Australia占被評(píng)企業(yè)百分比有貿(mào)易信息無(wú)貿(mào)易信息風(fēng)險(xiǎn)

22、最低很低低一般高嚴(yán)重貿(mào)易收支分析年度趨勢(shì) Trade Payment Analysis - Annual Trend 澳大利亞的情況 Australia Example來(lái)源：鄧白氏澳大利亞公司 Source: D&B Australia平均應(yīng)付款天數(shù)2000-2007年貿(mào)易付款平均額年貿(mào)易收支數(shù)據(jù)分析 ANALYZING TRADE PAYMENT DATA天數(shù) DaysAverage Trade Payment Days: Comparison 495051525354555657585960616263Feb-06Mar-06Apr-06May-06Jun-06Jul-06Aug-06Se

23、p-061 - 4 Employees5 - 9 Employees10 - 19 Employees20 - 49 Employees50 - 499 Employees500 + EmployeesAll Employees 來(lái)源：鄧白氏澳大利亞公司 Source: D&B Australia2006年2月2006年3月 2006年4月2006年5月2006年6月2006年7月2006年8月2006年9月1-4名員工5-9名員工10-19名員工20-49名員工50-499名員工 500名以上員工 所有企業(yè)平均貿(mào)易還款天數(shù)： 比較貿(mào)易收支分析行業(yè)趨勢(shì) TRADE PAYMENT ANALYS

24、IS INDUSTRY TREND 按行業(yè)的平均結(jié)算天數(shù) Average Payment Days by Industry(兩個(gè)月的移動(dòng)平均數(shù) 2-Month Moving Average)404550556065Apr 05Jul 05Oct 05Jan 06Apr 06Jul 06Oct 06Jan 07Apr-07DaysALLAGRMINCONMFRTRNWHLRTLFINSRVPUB來(lái)源：鄧白氏澳大利亞公司 Source: D&B Australia天數(shù)所有行業(yè)農(nóng)業(yè)礦業(yè)建筑業(yè)制造業(yè)交通運(yùn)輸批發(fā)零售金融效勞公共貿(mào)易收支分析按年比較 TRADE PAYMENT ANALYSIS YEAR

25、LY COMPARISON4550556065Agriculture, Forestry & FishingMiningConstructionManufacturingTransportation & CommunicationsWholesale TradeRetail TradeFinance, Insurance & Real Estate ServicesPublic AdministrationApr-06Apr-07來(lái)源：鄧白氏澳大利亞公司 Source: D&B Australia農(nóng)業(yè)、林業(yè)、漁業(yè)礦業(yè)建筑業(yè)制造業(yè)交通運(yùn)輸業(yè)批發(fā)貿(mào)易零售貿(mào)易金融、保險(xiǎn)、房地產(chǎn)效勞業(yè)公共行政2006

26、年4月2007年4月天數(shù)將貿(mào)易收支信息用于金融業(yè) UTILISING TRADE PAYMENT INFORMATION IN THE FINANCE SECTOR對(duì)新申請(qǐng)人的信用評(píng)估 CREDIT ASSESSMENT OF NEW APPLICANTS 無(wú)擔(dān)保信貸的申請(qǐng) UNSECURED CREDIT APPLICATIONS定期、低本錢(qián)的信貸審核 REGULAR, COST EFFECTIVE CREDIT REVIEWS對(duì)參與短期外匯交易的客戶的評(píng)估 ASSESS CLIENTS INVOLVED IN SHORT-TERM FX TRANSACTIONS將貿(mào)易收支信息融入現(xiàn)有流程和

27、內(nèi)部風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)級(jí) BLEND INFORMATION WITH EXISTING PROCESSES AND INTERNAL RISK RATINGS演講內(nèi)容 DISCUSSION TOPICS 前言 PREFACE關(guān)于兩個(gè)利益相關(guān)者的故事 THE CASE OF TWO STAKE HOLDERS信息孤島 ISLANDS OF INFORMATION錯(cuò)過(guò)的信號(hào) MISSED SIGNALS為什么需要商業(yè)信用信息？ THE CASE FOR TRADE INFORMATION總結(jié) SUMMARY共同的需求 COMMON NEEDS 銀行貸款 Bank Lending商業(yè)信用 Trade Cred

28、it總信貸風(fēng)險(xiǎn)敞口 TOTAL CREDIT RISK EXPOSURE共享貸款信息 SHARING OF LOAN INFORMATION關(guān)聯(lián)用戶集團(tuán)與信用信息 CLOSED USER GROUPS VS. CREDIT INFORMATION% of Respondents世界銀行2006年調(diào)查 World Bank Survey 2006信用信息用戶集團(tuán)占回應(yīng)者百分比銀行名稱貸款A(yù)貸款類(lèi)型按時(shí)還款逾期到期擔(dān)保物消除信息孤島 ELIMINATE THE ISLANDS OF INFORMATION 銀行數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)BANK DATABASE銀行內(nèi)部系統(tǒng) BANK INTERNAL SYSTEMS

29、信息公司數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)INFORMATIONCOMPANYDATABASE商業(yè)信用信息 TRADE INFORMATION 銀行征信機(jī)構(gòu)數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù) BANK BUREAU DATABASE征信機(jī)構(gòu)系統(tǒng) CREDIT BUREAU SYSTEMS為什么需要商業(yè)信用信息？ THE CASE FOR TRADE INFORMATION商業(yè)信用信息是預(yù)測(cè)潛在經(jīng)營(yíng)失敗和付款拖欠的最具預(yù)測(cè)力的指標(biāo) TRADE IS THE MOST PREDICTIVE INDICATOR FOR POTENTIAL BUSINESS FAILURES AND PAYMENT DELAYS90%的破產(chǎn)企業(yè)出現(xiàn)過(guò)拖欠、不穩(wěn)定的或低于行

30、業(yè)平均水平的還款行為 90% OF BANKRUPT COMPANIES EXHIBITED DELAYED, FLUCTUATING OR BELOW INDUSTRY AVERAGE PAYMENT BEHAVIOR6000多名商業(yè)信用經(jīng)理和300多家銀行參與了商業(yè)信用信息共享方案，他們每年能提供5.6億宗商業(yè)信用信息 OVER 6,000 TRADE CREDIT MANAGERS AND OVER 300 BANKS CONTRIBUTE TO TRADE INFORMATION PROGRAMS RESULTING IN 560,000,000 TRADE EXPERIENCES A

31、NNUALLY中國(guó)人民銀行、國(guó)際金融公司國(guó)際研討會(huì) PEOPLES BANK OF CHINA AND INTERNATIONAL FINANCE CORPORATION SYMPOSIUM謝謝THANK YOU商業(yè)信息產(chǎn)業(yè)協(xié)會(huì)BIIA亞太及中東對(duì)任何使用本次講演或報(bào)告中所包含信息的行為不負(fù)有責(zé)任。本次演講不隱含或表達(dá)任何形式的保證 The Business Information Industry Association Asia Pacific Middle East Ltd. is not responsible for the use which might be made of th

32、e information contained in this presentation or report. Nothing in this presentation implies or expresses a warranty of any kind. BIIA感謝：鄧白氏澳大利亞公司BIIA成員為此份演示提供了商業(yè)信用信息效勞方面的資料 BIIA EXPRESSES ITS GRATITUDE TO ITS MEMBER DUN & BRADSTREET AUSTRALIA FOR CONTRIBUTING INFORMATION ON ITS TRADE INFORMATION SE

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