臺(tái)風(fēng)災(zāi)害的模糊風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估模型

1、臺(tái)風(fēng)災(zāi)害的模糊風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估模型臺(tái)風(fēng)災(zāi)害的模糊風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估模型 報(bào)告人報(bào)告人丁燕丁燕 導(dǎo)師導(dǎo)師 史培軍史培軍 教授教授一、研究背景與研究意義一、研究背景與研究意義二、臺(tái)風(fēng)災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估的理論模型二、臺(tái)風(fēng)災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估的理論模型三、案例分析三、案例分析以廣東省為例以廣東省為例四、結(jié)論與討論四、結(jié)論與討論研究背景與研究意義研究背景與研究意義一、自然災(zāi)害的嚴(yán)重性及風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估的意義一、自然災(zāi)害的嚴(yán)重性及風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估的意義二、臺(tái)風(fēng)災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估現(xiàn)狀二、臺(tái)風(fēng)災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估現(xiàn)狀三、模型的框架和期望解決的問(wèn)題三、模型的框架和期望解決的問(wèn)題臺(tái)風(fēng)暴雨和臺(tái)風(fēng)大風(fēng)的頻率分析、超越概率分析臺(tái)風(fēng)暴雨和臺(tái)風(fēng)大風(fēng)的頻率分析、超越概率分析臺(tái)風(fēng)暴雨、臺(tái)

2、風(fēng)大風(fēng)的年超越概率分析臺(tái)風(fēng)暴雨、臺(tái)風(fēng)大風(fēng)的年超越概率分析致災(zāi)因子的危險(xiǎn)度分析致災(zāi)因子的危險(xiǎn)度分析地均地均GDP、地區(qū)人口密度、地區(qū)人口密度、一產(chǎn)占一產(chǎn)占GDP 比重、比重、承災(zāi)體的承災(zāi)體的潛在易損性潛在易損性分析分析不考慮防災(zāi)減災(zāi)不考慮防災(zāi)減災(zāi)措施情況下，措施情況下，臺(tái)風(fēng)災(zāi)害的臺(tái)風(fēng)災(zāi)害的綜合風(fēng)險(xiǎn)綜合風(fēng)險(xiǎn)地區(qū)防災(zāi)減災(zāi)地區(qū)防災(zāi)減災(zāi)保障系數(shù)的評(píng)估保障系數(shù)的評(píng)估 考慮防災(zāi)減災(zāi)措施情況下，考慮防災(zāi)減災(zāi)措施情況下，臺(tái)風(fēng)災(zāi)害的綜合風(fēng)險(xiǎn)臺(tái)風(fēng)災(zāi)害的綜合風(fēng)險(xiǎn)年頻率分析；年頻率分析；用直方圖方法估計(jì)概率分布用直方圖方法估計(jì)概率分布（ py1 ，py2，pym ）；）；計(jì)算超越概率分布計(jì)算超越概率分布 mijyjp)

3、(ixF計(jì)算年超越次數(shù)年超越次數(shù) Possibility(A)Possibility(A)Probability(B|A)Probability(B|A) n致災(zāi)因子的危險(xiǎn)性分析致災(zāi)因子的危險(xiǎn)性分析 致災(zāi)因子的綜合風(fēng)險(xiǎn)致災(zāi)因子的綜合風(fēng)險(xiǎn)R0 =0.6*Ry+0.4*Rf 3211VVVR承災(zāi)體的潛在易損性模型承災(zāi)體的潛在易損性模型不考慮防災(zāi)減災(zāi)措施的情況下不考慮防災(zāi)減災(zāi)措施的情況下廣東省臺(tái)風(fēng)災(zāi)害的綜合風(fēng)險(xiǎn)模型廣東省臺(tái)風(fēng)災(zāi)害的綜合風(fēng)險(xiǎn)模型10RRR防災(zāi)減災(zāi)資金供給模型防災(zāi)減災(zāi)資金供給模型 SFS0+b（人均（人均GDP）防災(zāi)減災(zāi)供給曲線0200400600800 1000 1200 140005

4、00010000150002000025000人均GDP（單位：元）防災(zāi)減災(zāi)供給量（單位：元）系列1防災(zāi)減災(zāi)投資需求模型防災(zāi)減災(zāi)投資需求模型CFC C0+sRiskRisk防災(zāi)減災(zāi)需求曲線020040060080010001200140005001000150020002500損失風(fēng)險(xiǎn)期望值Risk(單位：元)防災(zāi)減災(zāi)需求資金CF(單位：元)系列1防災(zāi)減災(zāi)供給與災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的關(guān)系模型防災(zāi)減災(zāi)供給與災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的關(guān)系模型Risk=R+tRisk=R+tSFSF防災(zāi)減災(zāi)投資效益曲線010002000300040005000600070008000900010000110000100020003000400

5、050006000防災(zāi)減災(zāi)資金投入量SF(單位：元)損失風(fēng)險(xiǎn)期望值Risk(單位：元)系列1綜合模型綜合模型)(0GDPbSSF人均3211VVVR10RRRRisksCCF0SFtRRisk324VVkGDPVGDP人口密度地均人均雙重作用下，雙重作用下，GDP與與Risk之間的關(guān)系之間的關(guān)系3100VVRStRisk203)(VRVtb投資需求與投資效益曲線投資需求與投資效益曲線的均衡投資需求與投資效益曲線0100020003000400050006000020004000600080001000012000Risk(單位：元)CF、SF(單位：元)CFSF 案例分析案例分析0150kil

6、ometres300the annual frequency of gale4 to 6 (3)3 to 4 (4)2 to 3 (7)1 to 2 (20)0.0003 to 1 (45)0 to 0.0003 (43)廣東省各地區(qū)年均=8級(jí)臺(tái)風(fēng)大風(fēng)天數(shù)圖年總天數(shù)年均天數(shù)0150kilometres300the annual frequency of rainstorm6 to 8 (16)5 to 6 (34)4 to 5 (20)3 to 4 (10)2 to 3 (1)0 to 0.0003 (40)all others (1)廣東省各地區(qū)臺(tái)風(fēng)暴雨年頻次圖年總次數(shù)年頻率廣東省各地區(qū)臺(tái)風(fēng)

7、暴雨年頻次圖廣東省各地區(qū)年均=8級(jí)臺(tái)風(fēng)大風(fēng)天數(shù)圖0150kilometres300the annual frequency of gale4 to 6 (3)3 to 4 (4)2 to 3 (7)1 to 2 (20)0.0003 to 1 (45)0 to 0.0003 (43)0150kilometres300the annual frequency of rainstorm6 to 8 (16)5 to 6 (34)4 to 5 (20)3 to 4 (10)2 to 3 (1)0 to 0.0003 (40)all others (1)臺(tái)風(fēng)暴雨、臺(tái)風(fēng)大風(fēng)年頻數(shù)圖臺(tái)風(fēng)暴雨、臺(tái)風(fēng)大風(fēng)年頻

8、數(shù)圖0150kilometers300the risk of rainstorm(55mm)0.8 to 1 (13)0.7 to 0.8 (11)0.6 to 0.7 (15)0.5 to 0.6 (8)0.4 to 0.5 (9)0.3 to 0.4 (10)0.0003 to 0.3 (16)0 to 0.0003 (40)0150kilometers300the risk of rainstorm(105mm)0.8 to 1 (6)0.7 to 0.8 (2)0.6 to 0.7 (6)0.5 to 0.6 (8)0.4 to 0.5 (9)0.3 to 0.4 (13)0.0003

9、 to 0.3 (37)0 to 0.0003 (41)0150kilometers300the risk of rainstorm(205mm)0.8 to 1 (2)0.5 to 0.6 (2)0.4 to 0.5 (4)0.3 to 0.4 (10)0.0003 to 0.3 (28)0 to 0.0003 (76)臺(tái)風(fēng)暴雨風(fēng)險(xiǎn)圖臺(tái)風(fēng)暴雨風(fēng)險(xiǎn)圖0150kilometers300the risk of gale(17m/s)0.8 to 1 (3)0.7 to 0.8 (2)0.6 to 0.7 (1)0.5 to 0.6 (4)0.4 to 0.5 (2)0.3 to 0.4 (3)0.

10、0003 to 0.3 (42)0 to 0.0003 (65)0150kilometers300the risk of gale(24m/s)0.8 to 1 (1)0.6 to 0.7 (4)0.4 to 0.5 (3)0.3 to 0.4 (2)0.0003 to 0.3 (22)0 to 0.0003 (90)0150kilometers300the risk of gale(32m/s)0.8 to 1 (1)0.4 to 0.5 (1)0.3 to 0.4 (1)0.0003 to 0.3 (6)0 to 0.0003 (113)臺(tái)風(fēng)大風(fēng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)圖臺(tái)風(fēng)大風(fēng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)圖0150kilomete

11、rs300the risk of hazard(55mm*17m/s)0.8 to 1 (4)0.7 to 0.8 (6)0.6 to 0.7 (3)0.5 to 0.6 (14)0.4 to 0.5 (12)0.3 to 0.4 (9)0.0003 to 0.3 (34)0 to 0.0003 (40)0150kilometers300the risk of hazard(105mm*17m/s)0.8 to 1 (6)0.7 to 0.8 (3)0.6 to 0.7 (3)0.5 to 0.6 (8)0.4 to 0.5 (10)0.3 to 0.4 (6)0.0003 to 0.3 (4

12、5)0 to 0.0003 (41)0150kilometers300the risk of hazard(105mm*24m/s)0.8 to 1 (5)0.7 to 0.8 (2)0.6 to 0.7 (5)0.5 to 0.6 (4)0.4 to 0.5 (12)0.3 to 0.4 (6)0.0003 to 0.3 (47)0 to 0.0003 (41)致災(zāi)因子的綜合風(fēng)險(xiǎn)圖致災(zāi)因子的綜合風(fēng)險(xiǎn)圖0150kilometers300the vulnerability of people0.8 to 1 (1)0.7 to 0.8 (1)0.6 to 0.7 (1)0.5 to 0.6 (2

13、)0.3 to 0.4 (6)0.0003 to 0.3 (84)0 to 0.0003 (27)0150kilometers300the vulnerability of agriculture0.8 to 1 (12)0.7 to 0.8 (10)0.6 to 0.7 (11)0.5 to 0.6 (15)0.4 to 0.5 (7)0.3 to 0.4 (11)0.0003 to 0.3 (29)0 to 0.0003 (27)0150kilometers300the vulnerability of economy0.8 to 1 (4)0.6 to 0.7 (1)0.4 to 0.5

14、 (3)0.3 to 0.4 (3)0.0003 to 0.3 (84)0 to 0.0003 (27)承災(zāi)體三因素的潛在易損性承災(zāi)體三因素的潛在易損性0150kilometers300the integrated vulnerability0.8 to 1 (1)0.7 to 0.8 (2)0.6 to 0.7 (9)0.5 to 0.6 (17)0.4 to 0.5 (25)0.3 to 0.4 (18)0.0003 to 0.3 (23)0 to 0.0003 (27)承災(zāi)體的綜合潛在易損性承災(zāi)體的綜合潛在易損性0150kilometers300the risk of typhoon(i

15、gnore the resist ability)0.8 to 1 (1)0.6 to 0.7 (3)0.5 to 0.6 (4)0.4 to 0.5 (11)0.3 to 0.4 (17)0.0003 to 0.3 (59)0 to 0.0003 (27)不考慮防災(zāi)減災(zāi)措施情況下不考慮防災(zāi)減災(zāi)措施情況下廣東省各地區(qū)臺(tái)風(fēng)災(zāi)害的綜合風(fēng)險(xiǎn)值廣東省各地區(qū)臺(tái)風(fēng)災(zāi)害的綜合風(fēng)險(xiǎn)值 0150kilometers300the ability of resisting disaster0.8 to 1 (31)0.7 to 0.8 (3)0.6 to 0.7 (2)0.5 to 0.6 (2)0.4 to 0.

16、5 (5)0.3 to 0.4 (5)0.0003 to 0.3 (32)0 to 0.0003 (42)廣東省各地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展程度對(duì)災(zāi)害的保障能力廣東省各地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展程度對(duì)災(zāi)害的保障能力 0150kilometers300the risk of typhoon0.8 to 1 (4)0.7 to 0.8 (5)0.6 to 0.7 (2)0.5 to 0.6 (10)0.4 to 0.5 (5)0.3 to 0.4 (20)0.0003 to 0.3 (49)0 to 0.0003 (27)考慮防災(zāi)減災(zāi)措施的情況下考慮防災(zāi)減災(zāi)措施的情況下廣東省各地區(qū)臺(tái)風(fēng)災(zāi)害的綜合風(fēng)險(xiǎn)廣東省各地區(qū)臺(tái)風(fēng)災(zāi)害的綜合

17、風(fēng)險(xiǎn) 結(jié)論結(jié)論案例分析的結(jié)果與實(shí)際情況相吻合，說(shuō)明模型有一定案例分析的結(jié)果與實(shí)際情況相吻合，說(shuō)明模型有一定 的科學(xué)性和應(yīng)用價(jià)值；的科學(xué)性和應(yīng)用價(jià)值；應(yīng)用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析的結(jié)果來(lái)指導(dǎo)防災(zāi)減災(zāi)決策，臺(tái)風(fēng)暴雨應(yīng)用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析的結(jié)果來(lái)指導(dǎo)防災(zāi)減災(zāi)決策，臺(tái)風(fēng)暴雨 的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)要高于臺(tái)風(fēng)大風(fēng)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)；的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)要高于臺(tái)風(fēng)大風(fēng)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)；綜合風(fēng)險(xiǎn)值是致災(zāi)因子、承災(zāi)體和抗災(zāi)能力三因素綜綜合風(fēng)險(xiǎn)值是致災(zāi)因子、承災(zāi)體和抗災(zāi)能力三因素綜 合作用的結(jié)果，風(fēng)險(xiǎn)值的差異體現(xiàn)在三者的差異上合作用的結(jié)果，風(fēng)險(xiǎn)值的差異體現(xiàn)在三者的差異上,即即 使綜合風(fēng)險(xiǎn)值相等，各地域防災(zāi)減災(zāi)的重點(diǎn)也不一樣；使綜合風(fēng)險(xiǎn)值相等，各地域防災(zāi)減災(zāi)的重點(diǎn)也不一樣；臺(tái)風(fēng)暴雨風(fēng)險(xiǎn)高的區(qū)域要重點(diǎn)做好防雨工作；臺(tái)風(fēng)暴雨風(fēng)險(xiǎn)高的區(qū)域要重點(diǎn)做好防雨工作；臺(tái)風(fēng)大風(fēng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)高的區(qū)域要重點(diǎn)做好防風(fēng)工作；臺(tái)風(fēng)大風(fēng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)高的區(qū)域要重點(diǎn)做好防風(fēng)工作；有些地區(qū)要做好農(nóng)業(yè)的防御工作；有些地區(qū)要做好農(nóng)業(yè)的防御工作；有些地區(qū)要做好人員的傷亡保衛(wèi)工作；有些地區(qū)要做好人員的傷亡保衛(wèi)工作；對(duì)于保障能力比較強(qiáng)的地區(qū)，因?yàn)楸旧淼慕?jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)力相對(duì)于保障能力比較強(qiáng)的地區(qū)，因?yàn)楸旧淼慕?jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)力相 對(duì)于本地區(qū)的災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)來(lái)說(shuō)，有較高的保障能力，因?qū)τ诒镜貐^(qū)的災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)來(lái)說(shuō)，有較高的保障能力，因 此，地方政府要保證足額進(jìn)行災(zāi)害的防災(zāi)減災(zāi)投資，此