六普中國分年齡性別人數(shù)2010年

1、從六普人口金字塔估計的 2010中國分年齡性別人數(shù)China' s 20PGbpulation by Sex and Age Recovered from the Census Population Pyramid蔡泳 Yong CaiDepartment of Sociology, UNC-Chapel HCreated on Oct 18, 2011, Updated on Jan 5, 2012迄今為止，國家統(tǒng)計局只公布了六普人口年齡 性別結(jié)構(gòu)的幾個大數(shù)。2011年7月出版的2010年第六次全國人口普查主要數(shù)據(jù)第13頁提供了“歷次普查人口金字塔”

2、，其中包 括根據(jù)六普數(shù)據(jù)繪制的單歲人口金字塔（見下 圖1）。利用繪圖軟件我們可以通過測量各年 齡在金字塔中的相對長度來測算分性別年齡的 人口數(shù)。China has yet to release detailed age structure data from the 2010 census. In its publication titled “ Major Figures on 2010 Population Census of China ” the National Bureau of Statistics of China provides a population pyramid f

3、rom the 2010 census (See Figure 1 below). By measuri ng corresp onding bar len gth in the graph, we can“ recover ” population' s sex age structure withreas on able Page 1 of 6Page # of 62010t年齡僭）2.2 2.0 1.6 L2 O.K 0.4 0.0 0,0 0,40層 i.2 Lb 2.0 22男 Male女 Female

4、Page # of 6Page # of 6圖1.中國2010普查人口金字塔1Figure 1. Population Pyramid from Chin' 2010 Census2010年第六次全國人口普查主要數(shù)據(jù)第 13頁“歷次普查人口金字塔”國務(wù)院第六次全國人口普查辦 公室/國家統(tǒng)計局人口和就業(yè)統(tǒng)計司編。中國統(tǒng)計岀版社， 2011年7月。(Page 13 in pyramids fromPopulati on Cen suses "in Major Figures on 2010 Populati on Cen s

5、us of China , edited by the Office of the 6Nati onalPopulation Census under the State Council and Population and the Labor Statistics Division of the National Bureau of Statistics of China. China Statistical Press, July 2007.)Page # of 621. 該人口金字塔應(yīng)該是用Excel軟件繪制。左為男，右為女，但左右不同高，而且左 右標(biāo)尺比例有

6、微差（見下圖2）。經(jīng)測算男182個像素點(diǎn)代表0.4%，女189個像 素點(diǎn)代表0.4%。2. 測量估算步驟（表1）：a. 分別量算各性別年齡條的長度（像素 點(diǎn)數(shù)，表1第2列）b. 根據(jù)男女不同比例尺對像素點(diǎn)數(shù)做微調(diào)，推算各性別年齡的比例（表 1第 3列）。c. 把各性別年齡比例加總，總數(shù)應(yīng)該等于 100（%）,實(shí)際為 100.85（%）。（表 1 第3列）d. 根據(jù)加總的比例，重新加權(quán)，使總和 等于100%。（表1第4列）e. 把普查所得全國總?cè)丝诜峙涞礁餍詣e 年齡。（表1第5列）3. 測算誤差（具體見下表 2）最大的問題是而中青年少了200來萬，老年人多了 160多萬。原因在于，該金 字塔用E

7、xcel的條狀圖制作并加上了邊框。 在條本身較短的情況下（比方說老人）， Excel的條和邊很難精確區(qū)分。但測量誤 差占總?cè)丝诘谋壤苄。趪医y(tǒng)計局公 布具體數(shù)據(jù)以前，本估計可供參考。1. The pyramid is likely created using Excel. There is a small but no ticeable differe nee in scale betwee n male and female (Figure 2). It is estimated that, 182 pixels stand for 0.4% for males, and 189 pix

8、els for females.2. Steps take n in measuri ng (Table 1):a. Measure bar length (number of pixels, Table 1, Colum n 2).b. Estimate each sex-age' proportion of total population according to its pixel size and scale (Table 1, Colu mn 3).c. Add up estimated proporti on. The total should be 100(%). Th

9、e actual value is 100.85(%). (Table 1, Colum n 3)d. Reweight estimated proporti on to make them add up to 100(%). (Table 1, Colum n 4)e. Distribute census population total to each sex-age group. (Table 1, Column 5)3. Measureme nt Errors (Table 2).A comparison of population figures based on this “ re

10、covered sex age structure with the released census figures provides an assessme nt of accuracy. As show n in Table 2, the measurement errors are relatively small. The “ recovered sex age structure has about 2 milli on fewer in the age group of 15-59, but about 1.6 million more of 60+/65+, compared w

11、ith the released figures. The discrepa ncies are largely due to difficulties in differentiating border from bar in population pyramid. Nevertheless, this “ recoveredex-age structure is useful for demographic an alysis before NBS releases the official nu mbers.0F0 to 80男 Male立 Feimale幾點(diǎn)說明:Notes on Me

12、asurement:Page # of 62Page # of 62o 0.0 0.40.8 h2 L6 2.0 2,2圖2.圖1中男女比例尺的細(xì)微差異Figure 2. Small Difference between Male and Female in their Scales in Figure 1表1.根據(jù)六普人口金字塔估計的分年齡性別人數(shù)Table 1. Population by Sex and Age Estimated from Population Pyramid年齡Age像素點(diǎn)數(shù)Pixels(3)比例Proporti

13、on(4)調(diào)整后比例Adjusted Prop.(5)人口數(shù)Population女 Female總 Total男M女F男M女F男M女F男 Male02572270.5650.4800.5600.476750328163819521388523212952530.6480.5350.6430.531861271571129241572563922912530.6400.5350.6340.531849593271129241560885632832500.6220.5290.6170.525826236770285811529094842832490.6220.5270.6170.5238262

14、36770004671526283452762420.6070.5120.6010.508805799868036661486166462762420.6070.5120.6010.508805799868036661486166472522200.5540.4660.5490.462735730261851511354245482572230.5650.4720.5600.468750328162694941377277592662350.5850.4970.5800.4937766041660686614372907102712380.5960.5040.5910.499791202066

15、9120914603229112692290.5910.4850.5860.4817853628643818014291808122852540.6260.5380.6210.5338320759714103815461797132812540.6180.5380.6120.5338203976714103815345014142922640.6420.5590.6360.5548525128742218215947310153283030.7210.6410.7150.6369576171851864018094811163353190.7360.6750.7300.669978054189

16、6846918749010173713560.8150.7530.8080.747108315841000869920840283183693560.8110.7530.8040.747107731931000869920781892193833730.8420.7890.8350.783111819321048664321668575204904901.0771.0371.0681.028143058661377601928081884214584691.0070.9930.9980.984133716051318561826557223224234340.9300.9190.9220.91

17、1123497571220161724551374234434560.9740.9650.9650.957129336701282013225753802243874060.8510.8590.8430.852112987141141441622713130253443560.7560.7530.7500.747100433021000869920052001263413500.7490.7410.7430.7349955715984001319795728273383440.7430.7280.7370.7229868128967132719539455283883950.8530.8360

18、.8460.829113279101110515822433068293423440.7520.7280.7450.7229984910967132719656238303313330.7270.7050.7210.6999663758936207019025828313503470.7690.7340.7630.72810218475975567019974146323423410.7520.7220.7450.7169984910958698419571895333203160.7030.6690.6970.6639342606888412618226732343643610.8000.7

19、640.7930.758106272141014927120776485353713700.8150.7830.8080.776108315841040230021233884364024010.8840.8490.8760.842117366491127384423010493如需要Excel版數(shù)據(jù)，請和作者聯(lián)系Excel version of the table is available upon request.374244180.9320.8850.9240.877123789531175178724130741384374310.9600.9120.9520.904127584961

20、211727424875770394464370.9800.9250.9720.917130212571228596025307217404814771.0571.0101.0481.001140431051341053327453637414384370.9630.9250.9550.917127876921228596025073652424754711.0440.9971.0350.988138679311324184727109778433733750.8200.7940.8130.787108899751054287121432847444214200.9250.8890.9170.

21、881122913661180801624099382454214170.9250.8830.9170.875122913661172367324015039464104100.9010.8680.8930.860119702141152687323497087474764681.0460.9901.0370.982138971271315750427054630483533500.7760.7410.7690.73410306062984001320146076491952000.4290.4230.4250.4205693151562286511316015502492460.5470.5

22、210.5430.5167269715691612414185839512302230.5050.4720.5010.4686714998626949412984492522952870.6480.6070.6430.6028612715806881116681526533253180.7140.6730.7080.6679488584894035518428939542952980.6480.6310.6430.6258612715837806916990784553093070.6790.6500.6730.6449021454863109717652551563093100.6790.6

23、560.6730.6519021454871544017736894572792870.6130.6070.6080.6028145585806881116214396582802870.6150.6070.6100.6028174780806881116243591592392450.5250.5190.5210.5146977759688800913865768602392400.5250.5080.5210.5046977759674743813725197612302260.5050.4780.5010.4746714998635383713068835621961980.4310.4

24、190.4270.4165722346556663611288982631891900.4150.4020.4120.3995517977534172210859698641721760.3780.3720.3750.369502165149481219969772651591610.3490.3410.3460.338464210745264069168514661511520.3320.3220.3290.319440854242733778681920671361410.2990.2980.2960.296397060839641207934727681341360.2950.2880.

25、2920.285391221638235487735764691341360.2950.2880.2920.285391221638235487735764701291320.2840.2790.2810.277376623837110917477329711081130.2370.2390.2350.237315313031769196330048721181240.2590.2620.2570.260344508634861766931262731111150.2440.2430.2420.241324071632331476473864741021130.2240.2390.2220.2

26、3729779563176919615487475941070.2070.2260.2050.2252744391300823357526237685990.1870.2100.1850.2082481630278331852649487785970.1870.2050.1850.2042481630272708952087197869830.1520.1760.1500.1742014499233348943479887961720.1340.1520.1330.1511780934202423138051668061730.1340.1540.1330.153178093420523463

27、8332808144570.0970.1210.0960.120128460816025162887125Page 3 of 68241570.0900.1210.0890.1201197021160251627995388332450.0700.0950.0700.094934261126514521994058427400.0590.0850.0590.084788282112457319128558523370.0510.0780.0500.078671500104023017117308620280.0440.0590.0440.05958391378720113711148715230.0330.0490.0330.04843793564662910845648811200.0240.0420.0240.042321152562286883439899180.0200.0380.0200.038262761506058768819905140.0110.0300.0110.02914597839360153957991590.0110.0190.0110.01914597825302939900792460.0090.0130.0090.01311678316868628546993360.0070.0130.0070.013