有色金屬行業(yè)銅主題報(bào)告一融資的形式與風(fēng)險(xiǎn)

1、SWS Research Co.99 East Nanjing Road, Shanghai|+86 21 2329 7818Industry ResearchView onMay 16, 2013銅報(bào)告一：融資銅的形式與風(fēng)險(xiǎn)Neutral有色金屬行業(yè)Unchanged投資要點(diǎn)：AnalystRong Yel背景：與其他之間的利率和匯率失衡是導(dǎo)致融資銅盛行的根本原A0230512110001因。08 年金融之后，一直處于零利率附近，而的利率卻相對兌升值趨，投資人民AYZ033很高。同時(shí) QE1 與 QE2 的貨幣寬松使得處于弱勢，勢明顯。貨幣的空間于是一直。投資者可以借入Contact幣。于是

2、，大量資金通過貿(mào)易進(jìn)入，而大宗商品由于其良流Dimi Du動(dòng)性以及擁有衍生品對沖價(jià)格風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的優(yōu)勢，成為了貿(mào)易中的載體。(8621)23297818×7203duweiil融資銅和融資大相徑庭。近日來市場上部分人認(rèn)為融資銅和類似Related Reports是通過抵押來實(shí)現(xiàn)貸款，重復(fù)抵押十分常風(fēng)，其實(shí)兩者截然不同。Nonferrous Sector見。融資銅是通過信用證貿(mào)易來達(dá)到借款的目的，重復(fù)抵押現(xiàn)象很少。并且大部分貿(mào)易商都會(huì)在期貨上鎖定價(jià)格風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。部分貿(mào)易商通過銅來做貿(mào)易SAFE to target trade fraud,posing risks to copper finng;Ji

3、angxi Copper to remain under。比如貿(mào)易商 X了境內(nèi)進(jìn)口公司，境外出口公司，境外轉(zhuǎn)口公司pressure May 7, 2013來實(shí)現(xiàn)左手倒右手的轉(zhuǎn)口貿(mào)易。Jiangxi Copper significantdecline in 1Q , D/G tol我們認(rèn)為融資銅有三個(gè)重要驅(qū)動(dòng)力 1）與其他的利差 2）人民underperform May 3, 2013幣升值的預(yù)期 3）相關(guān)保持寬松。 中長期來看，美聯(lián)儲很有可能將Nonferrous sector: copper at會(huì)加息，一旦加息，對融資銅的打擊會(huì)很大。短中期來看，近來風(fēng)險(xiǎn)high risk, gold st

4、ay defensive Mar急劇上升。外管局上上周公布了 20，旨在打擊虛假貿(mào)易融資，25, 2013特別是最后一個(gè)例子中的轉(zhuǎn)口貿(mào)易。由于虛假貿(mào)易融資盛行，已經(jīng)導(dǎo)QE3.5: Diminishing marginal致進(jìn)出口數(shù)據(jù)嚴(yán)重失真，并且由于虛假貿(mào)易占據(jù)了大量離岸份effect, but still positive Dec 11,額，使得近期行動(dòng)。升值過快。我們認(rèn)為這兩點(diǎn)使得者開始采取2012Undervalued miner, copper priceupside Jiangxi Copper (358.HK),lSep 20, 2012我們認(rèn)為融資銅風(fēng)險(xiǎn)正在快速上升，趨勢已經(jīng)越發(fā)

5、明顯，所以我們相信銅 價(jià)將會(huì)繼續(xù)受壓，并仍然有較大的下行空間。融資銅的需求一旦消失，現(xiàn) 有庫存被大舉拋售，將對銅價(jià)的沖擊很大。l我們重申對銅價(jià)的悲觀點(diǎn)， 并且保持對江西銅業(yè)的減持評級。The company does not hold anyequities or derivatives of the listedcompany mentioned in this report(“target”), but then we shall providefinal advisory services subject to therelevant laws and regulations. Anya

6、ffiliates of the company may holdequities of the target, which may exceed1 percent of issued shares subject tothe relevant laws and regulations. Thecompany may also provide investmentbanking services to the target. TheCompany fulfills its duty of disclosurewithin its sphere of knowledge. Thes may co

7、ntactcompliance forrelevant disclosure materials or log intounderdisclosure column for furtherinformation. Thes shall have acomp ensive understanding of thedisclosure and disclaimer upon the lastpage.SWS Research Co.99 East Nanjing Road, Shanghai|+86 21 2329 7818Industry ResearchView onInvestment Hi

8、ghlights:n Background: The key drivers of copper finng to be popular are theimbalances of interest rates and exchange rates betweenand othercountries. After the final crisis in 2008, the USs interest rate has stayednear zero whiles interest rate is much higher. Also, the QE1 and QE2 hasUS dollar wea

9、k while CNY has a long term appreciation expectation. ave been large arbitrage opportunities from 2009 till now. InvestorsThecan borrow dollars and invest in CNY assets. However, money inflows are notallowed to be converted from overseas tounder capital items. Thereforeit has to go through the tradi

10、ng activities. Commodities are perfect carriers because of its good liquidity and they have derivatives to hedge from its price risk.n Copper finng are very different from steel finng. Repeated pledged ng is related to the useis frequently used in steel finng while copper finof letter of credit. Mea

11、nwhile it can hedge away its copper price risks in the futures market. Some traders do pure arbitrage trading using copper. For example, trader X owns company A (importer), company B (offshore exporter) and company C (offshore intermediary). Trader X can do trade among its own three companies and ea

12、rn the interest rate and exchange rate differentials.n We saw three major drivers for copper finng, 1) interest ratedifferentials betweenand the US keeps large 2) the expectation ofcontinuous RMB appreciation 3) policy control remains loose. In the mediumtolong term, it is highly likely that Fed wil

13、l raise its interest rate and this will narrow and even eliminate the arbitrage opportunities. In short term, we believe the biggest risk comes from policy control. SAFE has announced aNo.20 documents aito target on those companies doing fake trade,especially those companies doing pure arbitrage tra

14、ding in the second example.n In, we believe although copper finng market is verydifferent from iron & steel finng. Its risk is increasing quickly. Themain risk comes from policies changing. Theof copper finngcollapse is hard to predict but we see the trend may be clear. Therefore webelieve coppe

15、r price will continue under pressure and once copper fin problem is exposed. Huge excess supply will flow to the market.ngn We reiterate our pessimistic view on copper price and we believe Jiangxi Copper's share price will continue under pressure.Industry ResearchMay 16, 2013投資要點(diǎn)：l背景：與其他之間的利率和匯率

16、失衡是導(dǎo)致融資銅盛行的根本。08 年金融之后，一直處于零利率附近，而的利率卻兌升，投相對很高。同時(shí) QE1 與 QE2 的貨幣寬松使得處于弱勢，值趨勢明顯。貨幣的空間于是一直。投資者可以借入資良的載體。于是，大量資金通過貿(mào)易進(jìn)入，而大宗商品由于其性以及擁有衍生品對沖價(jià)格風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的優(yōu)勢，成為了貿(mào)易中l(wèi)融資銅和融資大相徑庭。近日來市場上部分人認(rèn)為融資銅和類是通過抵押來實(shí)現(xiàn)貸款，重復(fù)抵押十分似風(fēng)，其實(shí)兩者截然不同。常見。融資銅是通過信用證貿(mào)易來達(dá)到借款的目的，重復(fù)抵押現(xiàn)象很少。并且大部分貿(mào)易商都會(huì)在期貨上鎖定價(jià)格風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。部分貿(mào)易商通過銅來做貿(mào)易。比如貿(mào)易商 X了境內(nèi)進(jìn)口公司，境外出口公司，境外轉(zhuǎn)口公司來實(shí)

17、現(xiàn)左手倒右手的轉(zhuǎn)口貿(mào)易。l我們認(rèn)為融資銅有三個(gè)重要驅(qū)動(dòng)力 1）與其他的利差 2）人民幣升值的預(yù)期 3）相關(guān)保持寬松。 中長期來看，美聯(lián)儲很有可能將會(huì)加息，一旦加息，對融資銅的打擊會(huì)很大。短中期來看，近來風(fēng)險(xiǎn)急劇上升。外管局上上周公布了 20，旨在打擊虛假貿(mào)易融資，特別是最后一個(gè)例子中的轉(zhuǎn)口貿(mào)易。由于虛假貿(mào)易融資盛行，已經(jīng)導(dǎo)致進(jìn)出口數(shù)據(jù)嚴(yán)重失真，并且由于虛假貿(mào)易占據(jù)了大量離岸份額，使得近期者開始采取行動(dòng)。升值過快。我們認(rèn)為這兩點(diǎn)使得l我們認(rèn)為融資銅風(fēng)險(xiǎn)正在快速上升，趨勢已經(jīng)越發(fā)明顯，所以我們相信銅價(jià)將會(huì)繼續(xù)受壓，并仍然有較大的下行空間。融資銅的需求一旦消失， 現(xiàn)有庫存被大舉拋售，將對銅價(jià)的沖擊很

18、大。我們重申對銅價(jià)的悲觀點(diǎn).Please refer to the last page for important disclosuresPage 1Industry ResearchMay 16, 2013Table of ContentsSummary and background 4Typical form of copper finng is very different from Steelpledge finng 6Pure Arbitrage form of copper finng 7Factors affecting trade finng 7Risk of copper f

19、inng is increasing quickly 8Recommendation under SWS coverage 9Please refer to the last page for important disclosuresPage 2Industry ResearchMay 16, 2013Chart & TableFig 1: RMB has been appreicatingUSD and the trend is continuing4Fig 2: Aribitarge opporutnies exist after 20094Fig 3:Commodites pr

20、ices increased largely after 2008s slump5Fig 4: Steel pledge finng is sensitive to price movement and repeated pledge makesrisk huge6Fig 5: Traditional forms of copper finng gets cheap loans6Fig 6: Intermediary trading aims at pure arbitarge gains7Please refer to the last page for important disclosu

21、resPage 3Industry ResearchMay 16, 2013Summary and backgroundThe key drivers of copper finng to be popular are the imbalances of interestrates and exchange rates betweenand other countries. After the finalcrisis in 2008, the USs interest rate has stayed near zero whiles interestrate is much higher. A

22、lso, the QE1 and QE2 hasUS dollar weak while CNYhas a long term appreciation expectation. There have been large arbitrage opportunities from 2009 till now. Investors can borrow dollars and invest inCNY assets. However, money inflows are not allowed to be converted fromoverseas tounder capital items.

23、 Therefore it has to go through thetrading activities. Commodities are perfect carriers because of its good liquidityand they have derivatives to hedge from its price risk. The proportion different kinds of copper finng is not transparent and hard to know.ofFig 1: RMB has been appreicatingUSD and th

24、e trend is continuing7.47.276.86.66.46.265.85.65.42008/1/22009/1/22010/1/22011/1/22012/1/22013/1/2USDCNYSource: Bloomberg, SWS ResearchFig 2: Aribitarge opporutnies exist after 2009Please refer to the last page for important disclosuresPage 4Industry ResearchMay 16, 201354.543.532.521.510.502008/1/2

25、2009/1/22010/1/22011/1/22012/1/22013/1/2LIBOR USD 6mRMB Deposit rate 1YSource: Bloomberg, SWS ResearchFig 3:Commodites prices increased largely after 2008s slump5001200045010000400350800030025060002004000150100200050002008/1/22009/1/22010/1/22011/1/22012/1/22013/1/2CRB indexLME Cu price (USD/T)Sourc

26、e: Bloomberg, SWS ResearchPlease refer to the last page for important disclosuresPage 5Industry ResearchMay 16, 2013Typicalformofcopperfinngisverydifferent from Steel pledge finSome of the media and investors related copperngfinng trading to steelfinng which repeated pledge risks have been exposed a

27、nd many physicaltraders went bankrupted as steel price experienced a bear market last year.Copper finng are very different from steel finng.Fig 4: Steel pledge finng is sensitive to price movement and repeated pledge makes risk hugeWarranty PledgeCompany ABank ALoansSteelWarrantyWarranty PledgeLoans

28、Inventory ManagementCompanyBank BSource: SWS ResearchCompany A imports copper from overseas and applied a letter of credit from a local banks. The L/C normally has 90/180 days. When the copper is arrived, copper is registered as warranty and they can use it to finance a USD debt. Then company A gets

29、 a loan and can invest the money into high return assets.Fig 5: Traditional form of copper finng gets cheap loansCompany A (domesticimporter)Domestic BankStep 1: Issue USANCE L/C60/180 daysStep 2:USANCEL/CStep 3: ShipmentCompany B (foreignexporter)Step 4: Registered as warranty andapply for loan or

30、sell it into spot market to get cashSource: SWS ResearchPlease refer to the last page for important disclosuresPage 6Industry ResearchMay 16, 2013Pure Arbitrage form of copper finngAnother example of copper finng activity aims to pure arbitrage gains. Itgoes through intermediary trade. Trader X owns

31、 Company A (Domesticimporter) Company B (Offshore exporter) and Company C (as offshore intermediary company). Company A deposit 10 million RMB into a domestic bank. A applied L/C from the bank. When L/C is received by company B, B will use the L/C to apply for an equivalent USD loan and converted it

32、 to 10 million RMB. Then B transfer the fund to Company C and C transfer it to Company A. Therefore A get another 10 million cash and deposit it into another local bank and do the same process again and again. Normally the cost of L/C USD cash loan will be around 2.53% annually and the gain from the

33、 deposit will be around 3.5%. The interest rate differential gain will be around 0.60.9% and trader X will also benefit from an appreciating RMB when repaying its USD loan. According to our channel checks, the process normally takes 35 days and in some places, it takes only 1 day. Therefore assume T

34、rader X can do 60 processes in 1 year. It will gain 20%30% profit from its initial investment. If Trader X leverages its L/C the return may be much higher.Fig 6: Intermediary trading aims at pure arbitarge gainsDeposit 10 million RMBCompany A (domesticimporter)Domestic BankIssue USANCE L/CUSANCE L/C

35、Transfer 10mRMBCompany B ( Offshoreexporter)Company C (offshoreintermediary company)Convert USD to RMBTransfer 10 million RMBUse L/C to apply forUSD loanForeign BankSource: SWS ResearchFactors affecting trade finngWe saw three major drivers for copper finng, 1) interest rate differentialsbetweenand

36、the US keeps large 2) the expectation of continuous RMBappreciation 3) policy control remains loose.Please refer to the last page for important disclosuresPage 7Industry ResearchMay 16, 2013In the mediumtolong term, it is highly likely that Fed will raise its interest rate and this will narrow and e

37、ven eliminate the arbitrage opportunities. In short term, we believe the biggest risk comes from policy control. SAFE hasannounced a No.20 documents on 6th May aito target on those companiesdoing fake trade, especially those companies doing pure arbitrage trading in the last example. SAFE gives 10 d

38、ays to companies to report and will target those companies doing fake trading.The amount of copper finng is hard to predict but it is estimated that atleast 80% of Shanghai bonded waouse are for pure finng use. It isreported that recent Shanghai bonded waouse copper inventory is around 650k. 80% of

39、this isRisk of copper finng is increasing quicklyIn, we believe although copper finng market is very differentfrom iron & steel finng. Its risk is increasing quickly. We believe the mainrisk comes from policies changing. Theof copper finng collapse ishard to predict but we see the trend may be c

40、lear. Therefore we believecopper price will continue under pressure and once copper fin problem is exposed. Huge excess supply will flow to the market.ngWe reiterate our pessimistic view on copper price and we believe Jiangxi Copper's share price will continue under pressure.Please refer to the

41、last page for important disclosuresPage 8Industry ResearchMay 16, 2013Recommendation under SWS coverageJiangxi Copper(358.HK)Investment RatingUnderperformClosing priceHKD 15.48TP:HKD 12.40Rationale:We maintained our underperform rating and 6m TP at HKD 12.40Key assumptions：Copper price will average

42、at 50,000 RMB/T in 2013.How we differ from consensus:We see a pessimistic longterm market view on the copper price and therefore believe any shortterm rebounds will not translate into a sustainable rebound for Jiangxi Coppers share price. Upside for the share price is therefore limited.Catalysts:Cop

43、per finng risk expose ;economy continue to worry market ondemand side; US Fed to taper QE3 that will be negative to most commodities fromliquidity withdrawMajor risks:demand beat expectationFinal summary and valuation2011117,640.992012158,556.212013E99,807.792014E96,133.182015E95,497.97Revenue (RMB

44、million) YOY (%)Net income (RMB million) YOY (%)EPS (RMB)Diluted EPS (RMB) ROE (%)Debt/asset (%) Dividend Yield (%) P/E (x)P/B (x) EV/EBITDA (x)54.516,549.4531.321.891.8916.6136.553.996.621.094.7334.785,215.87(20.36)1.511.5112.0626.582.088.310.995.79(37.05)3,994.92(23.41)1.151.157.7926.531.7810.850.

45、845.90(3.68)3,249.79(18.65)0.940.946.1125.881.5813.340.815.27(0.66)2,547.51(21.61)0.740.744.9732.421.1317.010.847.71Note: Diluted EPS is calculated as if all outstanding convertible securities, such as convertible preferred shares, convertible debentures, stock options and warrants, were exercised.

46、P/E is calculated as closing price divided by each years EPS.Please refer to the last page for important disclosuresPage 9Industry ResearchMay 16, 2013Information Disclosure：The views expressed in this report accurately reflect theal views of the analyst. The analyst declares that neither he/she nor

47、 his/her associate servesas an officer of nor has any final interests in relation to the listed corporation reviewed by the analyst. None of the listed corporations reviewed or anythird party has provided or agreed to provide any compensation or other benefits in connection with this report to any o

48、f the analyst, the Company or the group company(ies). A group company(ies) of the Company confirm that they, whether individually or as a group (i) are not involved in any market making activities for any of the listed corporation reviewed; or (ii) do not have any individual employed by or associate

49、d with any group company(ies) of the Company serving as an officer of any of the listed corporation reviewed; or (iii) do not have any final interest in relation to the listed corporation reviewed or (iv) do not, presently or within the last 12 months, have any investment banking relationship with t

50、he listed corporation reviewed.Undertakings of the Analyst Rong Ye: Equity AnalystI am conferred the Professional Quality of Securities Investment Consulting Industry by the Securities Association ofand have registered asthe Securities Analyst. I hereby issue this report independently and objectivel

51、y with due diligence, professional and prudent research methods and only legitimate information is used in this report. I am also responsible for the content and opinions of this report. I have never been, am no t, and will not be compensated directly or indirectly in any form for the specific recom

52、mendations or opinions herein.Disclosure with respect to the CompanyThe Company fulfills its duty of disclosure within its sphere of knowledge. Thes may contact compliance for the relevantdisclosure materials or log into eholdings.for the analysts' qualifications，the arrangement of the quiet per

53、iod and the affiliates sharIntroduction of Share Investment Rating Security Investment Rating：When measuring the difference between the markup of the security and that of the markets benchmark within six months after the release of t his report, we define the terms as follows:Buy： with a markup more

54、 than 20% better than that of the market； Outperform：With a markup 5% to 20% better than that of the market； Neutral： with a markup less than 5% better or worse than that of the market； Underperform： with a markup more than 5% worse than that of the market.Industry Investment Rating:When measuring the difference between the markup of the industry index and that of the markets benchmark within six months after the releas e of the report, we define the terms as follows:Over