優(yōu)秀畢業(yè)設(shè)計論文社會消費品零售總額

1、社會消費品零售總額一. 研究背景社會消費品零售總額指批發(fā)和零售業(yè)、餐飲業(yè)、新聞出版業(yè)、郵政業(yè)和其他服務(wù)業(yè)等, 售予城鄉(xiāng)居民用于生活消費的商品和社會集團(tuán)用于公共消費的商品z總量。補會消費品：主要反映中國國內(nèi)貿(mào)易領(lǐng)域商品流通、商陽消費、市場運行態(tài)勢以及流通 現(xiàn)代化進(jìn)程。主要內(nèi)容包括：限額以上批發(fā)和零售業(yè)、住宿和餐飲業(yè)基本情況、商品流轉(zhuǎn)和 經(jīng)營情況、財務(wù)狀況；社會消費品零售總額；億元商品交易山場成交情況以及限額以上連鎖 零售業(yè)和餐飲業(yè)經(jīng)營情況等。社會消費品零售總額所計量的是各種經(jīng)濟(jì)類型的商業(yè)由于經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展和社會的進(jìn)步，特 別是補會主義市場經(jīng)濟(jì)的建立，商殆生產(chǎn)和商品交換的領(lǐng)域進(jìn)一步擴(kuò)大，用以確立和描述

2、各 類消費品市場對居民和社會集團(tuán)出售商品總和的商品零售額指標(biāo)的口徑范國也作了相應(yīng)的 調(diào)整。批發(fā)零售業(yè)發(fā)展明顯加快，帶動了消費品市場。隨著人們生活水平的提高和消費觀念的 轉(zhuǎn)變，行業(yè)規(guī)模和經(jīng)營領(lǐng)域日益擴(kuò)人.一季度批發(fā)和零售業(yè)為66482萬元，比去年增長23.7%。 盡管消費殆市場呈增長態(tài)勢，但也存在一些問題。主要表現(xiàn)在一是大型消費場所人少，個體 小型消費店多；二是特色消費品行業(yè)較少，吸引外地人來區(qū)消費力度不夠。因此，建議要f 大氣力營造和治理消費品市場，確保社會消費品零售總額持續(xù)增長，發(fā)展壯大第三產(chǎn)業(yè)。二. 相關(guān)研究1. 中國經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢分析2. 中國社會消費品零售總額增長平穩(wěn)3. 中國國內(nèi)消費增速加

3、快外貿(mào)景氣企穩(wěn)回升4. 中國消費市場成為拉動宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)前行的主要力量5. 小國經(jīng)濟(jì)未來寄托在國民消費上三. 變量與數(shù)據(jù)y:社會消費品零售總額xi:批發(fā)零售業(yè)x2:住宿餐飲業(yè)x3:郵政通信業(yè)年份社會消費品零售總額批發(fā)零售業(yè)住宿餐飲業(yè)郵政通信業(yè)19781558.61363.754.8140.1119802140176880292198543053272. 2196.9835.919908300.16127.4419.81752.919919415.66903. 94922019.7199210993.77922. 2589.72481.8199314270.410892.8817.82559. 81

4、99418622.914903.41201.42518.1199523613.819454.31614.72544. 8199628360. 223747. 520702542. 7199731252.926169.92488. 22594. 8199833378.127859. 22878. 82640.1199935647. 929708. 83270. 32668. 8200039105.732697. 33836.12572.3200143055. 436014.84465. 22575. 4200248135.940926. 65547.11662. 2200352516.34465

5、9. 46191.41665.520045950150256. 87550. 41693.8200567176.656589. 28886. 81700.620067641064325. 510345.5173920078921075040. 3123521817.7三.研究方法對變量的非平穩(wěn)性的系統(tǒng)檢驗和協(xié)整分析。計量經(jīng)濟(jì)分析假定所設(shè)計的變量的均值和方差是常數(shù)，不隨時間而變。但是大多數(shù)情況 下，時間序列并不滿足這一假設(shè)。因此，要用經(jīng)典的t檢驗和f檢驗。尤其是對變量的非平 穩(wěn)性的系統(tǒng)檢驗和協(xié)整分析。協(xié)整分析涉及的是一組變量，他們各口都是不平穩(wěn)的，但他們一起漂移。這種變量的共 同漂移使得這些變量

6、之間存在長期的線性關(guān)系，因而能夠研究變童間的長期均衡關(guān)系。如果 這些長時間內(nèi)的線性關(guān)系不成立，則對應(yīng)的變量被稱為“非協(xié)整的”。此外，協(xié)整分析亦可川于短期或非均衡參數(shù)的估計，這是因為短期參數(shù)的估計可以通過協(xié)整 方法使用長期參數(shù)估計值，采用的模型是誤差修止模型。 forkfile:社會消費品零售總額-(c:docu>e. & xview procobject print |save details+/- show (fetch store (delete gen r|samplerange: 1978 2007 (irregular) - 21 obssample: 1978 200

7、7 - 21 obsdisplay filter:*dateid dx dy etn resid> untitled k new page / group: untitledtorkfile: b00k4:book4口口岡|viewprocobject print(name(freezej defaultv sort transpose(edit+/- smpl+/-titles<i obsnyx1x2x3|帀197819781558.61363.754.8140.lt198019802140.01768.080.0292.0198519854305.03272.2196.9835

8、.9199019908300.16127.4419.81752.9199119919415.66903.9492.02019.71992199210993.77922.2589.72481.81993199314270.410892.8817.82559.81994199418622.914903.41201.42518.11995199523613.819454.31614.72544.81996199628360.223747.52070.02542.71997199731252.926169.92488.22594.81998199833378.127859.22878.82640.11

9、999199935647.929708.83270.32668.82000200039105.732697.33836.12572.32001200143055.436014.84465.22575.42002200248135.940926.65547.11662.22003200352516.344659.46191.41665.52004200459501.050256.87550.41693.82005200567176.656589.28886.81700.62006200676410.064325.510345.51739.02007200789210.075040.312352.

10、01817.7<> -單位根檢驗ssl series z ork£:i：lc 二 book4 = :book4(objecthproperties print(mbmehfreene semple石enrjsheetgreph(szts(ldentaugmented dickey-fuller unit root test on d(x1,2)null hypothesis: d(x1.2) has a unit root exogenous: nonelag length: 0 (automatic based on sic. maxlag=4)t-statistlcp

11、rob *augmented dickey-fuller test statistic 2.8773300.0066test critical values:1 % level 5% level1 0% level 2.699769 1 .964 409-1 60661 0*mackinnon (1 996) onesided p-values.warning: probabilities and critical values calculated for 20 observations and may not be accurate for a sample size of 1 8augm

12、ented dickey-fuller tost equation dependent variable: d(x1.3) method: least squaresdate: 1 2/1 7/11 time: 1 9:1 0sample (adjusted): 1 990 2007included observations: 1 8 after adjustmentsvariablecoefticlentstd. errort-statisticprob.0.771 01 90.267963 2.8773300.01 05r-squared adjusted r-squared s.e. o

13、f regression sum squared resid log likelihood durbin-watson stat0 3249060.3249061 41 9.293 3424468155 66891 .841 792mean dependent var s.d. dependent var aka ike info criterion schwarz criterion hannanquiinn crlter.1 04.36671 727.3891 7.407661 7 4571 21 7 41 448x2：不平穩(wěn)series: x2vorkfile: book4:zbook4

14、回1田view arou objeut: ?operties print kl3m8 freeze semple genr sheetjgr3phldentaugmented dickey-fuller unit root test on d(x2,2)null hypothesis: d(x2,2) has a unit rootexogenous: nonelag length: 2 (automatic based on sic, maxlag=4)t-statisticprob *augmented dickey-fuller test statistic-0.3002760.561

15、5test critical values:1 % level 5% level1 0% level-2.71 751 1-1 .96441 8-1 .605603*mackinnon (1 996) one-sided p-values.warning: probabilities and critical values calculated for 20 observations and may not be accurate for a sample size of 1 6augmented dickey-fuller test equationdependent variable: d

16、(x2.3)method: least squaresdate: 1 2/1 7/11 time: 1 9:1 3sample (adjusted): 1 992 2007included observations: 1 6 after adjustmentsvariablecoefficientstd. errort-statisticprob.d(x2(-1).2)-0.1 545210.51 4597-0.3002760.7687d(x2(-1).3)-1.2836900.431 01 0-2.9783310.01 07d(x2(-2),3)-0.71 99250.262599-2.74

17、1 5360.01 68r-squared0.782533mean dependent var43.65625adjusted r-squared0.749077s.d. dependent var454.2897s.e of regression227.5638aka ike info criterion1 3.8601 0sum squared resid673208.7schwarz criterion1 4.00496log likelihood-1 07.8808hannan-quinn criter.1 3.86752x3： 一階平穩(wěn)atigrvieirted dickey-ful

18、ler (jvih root test on 0(x3)null hypothesis: 0(x3) has a unit rootexogenous: nonel_ag length: o (automatic based on sic. maxl-ag=4)t-statlsticprob*zmjqmentedtest statistic2.7073670.0097test critical values:1 % level-2.6923585<x> level-1 .9601 711 o<x> level.607051mackinnon (1 996) one-si

19、ded p-values.warning: probabilities and critical values calculated for 20 observations and may not be accurate for a sample size of 1 9augmented dickey-fuller test equation dependent variable: 0(x3.2) method: least squaresdate: 1 2/1 7/1 1 time: 1 9:1 5sample (adjusted) 1 985 2007included observatio

20、ns: 1 9 after adjustmentsvariablecoefficientstd. errort-statisticprob.d(x3(-1»-0.5750650.21 2407-2.7073670.01 44r- squared adjusted r-squared s.e. of regression sum squared resid likelihooddurbin-watson stat0.289300 o 289300322.42771 871 "4.4 36.1 8792.1 1 6230mean dependent var s.d. depen

21、dent var aka ike info criterion schwarz criterion hannancriter.-3.852632 382.4627 1 4.44083 1 4.490541 4 44924協(xié)整回歸y x2 cr equation: uhtitledtorkfile: b00k4:book45l 回區(qū)view proc objectj printn3mefre8zt estimate forecast stats resids dependent variable: ymethod: least squaresdate: 12/17/11 time: 19:19s

22、ample: 1978 2007in eluded observati ons: 21variablecoefficie ntstd. errort-statisticprob.x26.8541230.26517725.847320.0000c8596.1651337.6226.4264540.0000r-squared0.972347mean dependentvar33189.05adjusted rsquared0.9708913d. dependentvar25252.90s.e. of regression4308.454akaike info criterion19.66494su

23、m squared resid3.53e+08schwarz criteri on19.76442log likelihood-204.4819hannan-quinn criter.19.68653f-statistic668.0838durbin-watso n stat0.107438prob(f-statistic)0.000000殘差檢驗et ozkfxlos book4z =dook4一 | x | hacigvnetrted dickey-fuller unit root test oil d(et)null hypothesis: d(et) has a unit rootex

24、ogenous: nonelag length: 0 (automatic based on sic. maxlao=4) b statisticprob.w0.0609augmeniea dickey-fuller test statistic1.862765test critical values:1 9f> level 5% level1 o% level-2.692358 .9601 711 .607051mackinnon (1 996) one-sided p-valueswarning: probabilities and critical values calculate

25、d for 20 observations and may not be accurate for a sample size of 1 9augmented dickey-fuller test equationdependent variable: d(et.2)method: least squaresdate: 1 2/1 7/1 1 time: 1 9:26sample (adjusted): 1 985 2007included observations: 1 9 after adjustmentsvariablecoefficientstd. errort-statisticpr

26、ob.d(et(-1)-0.3329560.1 78743.8627650.0789r-squared adjusted r-squared s.e of regression sum squared resid log likelihood durbin-watson stato.1 583800.1 583801 087 0282126932159.27902.382420mean dependent var s.d. dependent var akaike info criterion schwarz criterion hannan-quinn criter.-71 .656531

27、1 84 9021 6 871 481 6.921 1 81 6 87989誤差修正d(y) d(x) et(-l) ch equation: ubtitled torkfile:社會消費品零回區(qū)|aiewprocobject| printnam8free28 estimatefor8i：35tstatsr85idsdependent valiable: dymethod: least squaresdate: 12z18/11 time: 14:56sample (adjusted): 1980 2007in eluded observati ons: 20 after adjustme ntsvariablecoefhcie ntstd. errort-statisticprob.dx5.1543880.41913912.297560.0000et(-1)-0.0898610.054460-1.6500320.1173c1231.532338.99873.6328520.0021r-squared0.898971mean dependentvar4382.570adjusted r-sq