美國風能產(chǎn)業(yè)年度報告

1、AWEA Small Wind Turbine Global Market StudyAWEA（美國風能協(xié)會）小風機全球市場研究Table of Contents Summary 概況 3Survey Findings and Analysis 調(diào)查結(jié)果及分析 4Growth Potential and Industry Projections 增長潛力和行業(yè)預測 7Market Factors and Developments 市場因素和發(fā)展 8Costs 成本 9Displaced Carbon Dioxide 二氧化碳減排 17Building-Mounted Turbines 建筑型風

2、機 17Manufacturing 制造業(yè) 17The Global Market 全球市場 18Solar Photovoltaics太陽能光伏 21Conclusion and Outlook 結(jié)論與展望 23Methodology and Reporting Manufacturers制造方法和報告 26Bibliography and Other Resources 參考資料 26Endnotes 結(jié)束語 28Summary概況Small Wind Reaches 100 MW Milestone in u.S. with 15% Growth在美小風機裝機達到100 MW，增長15%

3、Despite an economic downturn, the u.S. market for small wind turbines those with rated capacities of 100 kilowatts (kW)1 and less grew 15% in 2009 with 20.3 Megawatts (MW) of new capacity and $82.4 million in sales. This growth equates to nearly 10,000 new units and pushes the total installed capaci

4、ty in the u.S. to 100 MW.2 盡管在經(jīng)濟衰退時期，美國小風機市場上額定能力100千瓦(kW)及以下的，在2009年增長15%，新増裝機20.3兆瓦，銷售額82.4億美元。這一經(jīng)濟發(fā)展等同于將近新增裝機10000臺，使得美國總裝機容量達到100 MW。Half of this 100-MW milestone capacity came within the past three years of the industrys 80-year history. Manufacturers attribute this growth to a mixture of new a

5、nd improved federal and state incentives, optimistic private equity investors, and sustained consumer demand.美國小風電產(chǎn)業(yè)已經(jīng)歷80年，累計裝機的一半來自過去三年的貢獻。這增長得益于聯(lián)邦政府改進的激勵政策，樂觀的私人股本投資者和持續(xù)的消費者的需求。The 2009 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act expanded the federal investment tax credit (ITC) for small wind turbines,

6、 allowing consumers to take fully 30% of the total cost of a small wind system as a tax credit. In 2009 an additional $80 million of private equity was invested into manufacturing companies during the peak of the economic recession, boosting to at least $252.7 million the total of outside equity inv

7、ested across 20 manufacturers (most of them u.S.-based) over the past five years. This investment provided companies with capital to increase production, lower costs, meet sustained demand, and even acquire competitors.2009年美國復蘇和再投資法案擴展了對小風機的聯(lián)邦投資稅收優(yōu)惠(ITC)，讓消費者能夠在小風機系統(tǒng)節(jié)省30%的總成本。在2009年經(jīng)濟衰退的高峰期，8000萬美金

8、的民間資本投資于20個小風電企業(yè)。在過去的5年至少推動了2.527億美元的外部股權(quán)投資于制造商(大多數(shù)在美國)。Table 1 2009 U.S. Sales 2009 Global Sales20.3 MW 42.5 MW15% growth over 2008 10% growth over 20089,800 units 21,000 units$83 million in sales $189 million in sales表12009美國市場銷售情況 09年世界市場銷售情況20.3 MW 42.5 MW比08年增長15% 比08年增長10%9800套 21,000套銷售額8300萬

9、美元 銷售額1.89億美元Other Key Statistics: 其他統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)l 95% of all small wind systems sold in the US last year were made by US manufacturers l 美國市場的小風機95%是美國企業(yè)生產(chǎn)的l 2/3 of all small wind systems sold in the world last year were made by U.S. manufacturers l 世界市場的小風機2/3由美國企業(yè)生產(chǎn)l Approximately 250 companies worldwide

10、 manufacture or plan to manufacture small wind turbines, 95 of which more than one-thirdare based in the U.S. l 世界上大約有250個小風電生產(chǎn)企業(yè)，其中95個在美國l An estimated 100,000 units have been sold in the US since 1980l 1980年以來美國累計銷售10萬臺Survey Findings and Analysis調(diào)研結(jié)果與分析Based on a 2010 AWEA survey of manufacturers

11、 around the world, the u.S. market continued to grow in 2009 primarily because of the new u.S. federal investment tax credit (ITC), sustained consumer demand, external private equity investment in manufacturing, and the ability of manufacturers to identify and leverage specific market niches. 基于2010

12、年AWEA對世界范圍內(nèi)的廠家的調(diào)查，美國市場在2009年持續(xù)增長的主要原因是美國新的聯(lián)邦投資稅收優(yōu)惠(ITC)、持續(xù)消費需求、外部資金注入小風電制造業(yè)，制造廠家對市場的界定能力以及撬動市場空白的能力。The ITC was perhaps the most important factor in last years growth. The credit opened markets that have historically been just out of reach, sent a powerful signal to investors about the technologys p

13、romise, and helped consumers purchase small wind systems during a recession when other financing mechanisms were hardest to obtain. 促進去年增長的最重要的因素可能是ITC（稅收激勵政策）。信貸打開了以往達不到的市場，使投資者看到了這個技術的前景，并幫助消費者在經(jīng)濟衰退期間，其它方面融資困難的時期給予消費者幫助購買小風機。The enactment of the ITC the industrys top priority has also allowed indu

14、stry members and advocates to shift their political efforts toward other salient issues, including permitting, net metering and standardized interconnection regulations, and the appropriation and allocation of federal research and development funds. Manufacturers have also focused more resources on

15、improving turbine performance, certifying equipment to meet a newly created performance and safety standard,4 reducing costs, strengthening dealer networks, defining new market niches, and scaling up production. 投資稅收優(yōu)惠 (ITC)的條款這一行業(yè)最優(yōu)先考慮的同時使小風電產(chǎn)業(yè)能關注有關的其它方面，如安裝許可、凈值計量、標準化并網(wǎng)聯(lián)邦研發(fā)資金的分配，等等使制造商關注如何改善設備的運行、

16、通過認證來滿足新的要求、降低成本、擴大銷售網(wǎng)絡、開拓新市場和擴大產(chǎn)能。U.S. installed capacity increased by 15% last year, but the number of units sold decreased by 6%. This trend demonstrates a continued market shift toward larger, grid-tied systems. Since 2007 the residential and commercial / light industrial market segments have em

17、erged as dominant, with sales of off-grid turbines(generally those smaller than 1 kW and used to charge batteries) remaining flat.美國裝機容量去年增長15%，但臺數(shù)減少了6%。這一趨勢顯示市場轉(zhuǎn)變繼續(xù)傾向并網(wǎng)系統(tǒng)。2007年以來的居民和社區(qū)照明市場使小型離網(wǎng)風機(一般小于1千瓦，用來充蓄電池)的銷售持平。Manufacturers report that while interest in small wind has increased through the e

18、conomic recession, consumers are delaying purchasing decisions until financing becomes more available and affordable. Therefore, as the economy recovers, many manufacturers expect a surge in sales.制造商報告稱經(jīng)濟衰退期對小風機的興趣增加，消費者的購買決定推遲，直到資金情況好轉(zhuǎn)。因此，隨著經(jīng)濟復蘇，許多制造商期待銷售大幅提升。Demand Drivers推動市場需求的動力Consumer demand

19、 continues to be fueled by a combination of the following factors, though economics and environment remain primary concerns:盡管經(jīng)濟和環(huán)境仍然是首要問題，消費者需求還受到下列因素刺激:Economics經(jīng)濟方面l Length of payback period, or IRR* l 投資回收期，或者IRR（內(nèi)部收益率）l Financial hedge against rising prices of conventional electricity l 作為一種對付日

20、益增長的傳統(tǒng)電力的手段l Financial stability compared to volatile prices of conventional electricityl 與常規(guī)電力的變化無常相比的經(jīng)濟穩(wěn)定性Practicality實際應用方面l Reliability of electricity supply l 可靠的電力供應l Natural synergism with solar PV technologyl 對太陽能技術的自然協(xié)調(diào)l Diversity of applications, including those remote and off-gridl 應用的多樣性

21、，包括邊遠地區(qū)和離網(wǎng)系統(tǒng)Values價值方面l Environmentl 環(huán)境l Independencel 獨立自主供電l Image enhancementl 改善形象l Consumer choicel 消費者的選擇l Self-reliancel 自力更生l Do-It-Yourselfl 自己動手DIYl High visibility, particularly for commercial consumersl 高度的視覺形象，尤其對商業(yè)的應用Drivers Specifically For Real Estate Developers對房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)商的特殊動力l Marketab

22、ility of a “Zero-Energy Home”l “零排放住宅”的商業(yè)化l Practicality of integrating small wind and solar hybrid systemsl 風光互補系統(tǒng)的實用性l Possible availability of rebates for both developers and consumersl 對開發(fā)商和消費者的雙重返還可能性l Whether installation cost can be built into the price of a propertyl 安裝風力發(fā)電機的費用可能被計算在房價內(nèi)l Rol

23、e in defining the progressive character of neighborhoodl 在鄰居中展現(xiàn)“先進性”角色l Appeal of “renting vs. owning” electricityl “擁有電力”相對于“租用電力”的吸引力* Many investors view the internal rate of return (IRR) of a renewable energy technology to be a superior method of assessing its value to its payback period. IRR, n

24、ot payback period, is the primary tool used to assess the profitability of other types of financial investments (IRAs, stocks, etc.). Investors also point out that unlike mutual funds and stocks, renewable energy systems are generally far less susceptible to external risk.5 Measuring profitability i

25、n terms of payback also reinforces the negative perception that renewable energy is unaffordable and that consumers should postpone purchases until technological improvements reduce costs. However, when compared with other investment options using IRR, renewable energy investments can become much mo

26、re attractive.許多投資者把可再生能源技術的內(nèi)部收益率(IRR)看成對其回收期的一種優(yōu)越的價值評估方法。IRR，而不是回收期，是對其他類型的金融投資(個人退休帳戶,股票等) 收益率進行評估的首要工具。投資者還指出,與共同基金和股票不同，可再生能源系統(tǒng)通常遠不易受到外部風險的影響。就回收而言，測量收益率并加固消極因素，像是買不起可再生能源，可再生能源消費者應該推遲購買，直到技術改進來降低成本等。然而,當與其他的投資選擇相比時，可再生能源投資報酬率更有吸引力。Growth Potential and Industry Projections增長潛力與行業(yè)預測The worlds lea

27、ding 15 manufacturers continue to predict exponential sales growth in the U.S. market over the next five years, with projections of over one gigawatt (1,000 Megawatts) of cumulative installed small wind capacity in the U.S. by 2015, despite current economic conditions and the cooled sales of 2009.6

28、The economic recession led these manufacturers to pare down their growth projections somewhat from last years report,7 but they remain optimistic about achieving their target. Primary drivers include the eight-year 30% federal investment tax credit enacted in October 2008, recent and potential priva

29、te equity investment, and greater equipment supply and manufacturing capabilities.世界15個領先的小風機制造商繼續(xù)預測，在未來5年中，小風電產(chǎn)業(yè)在美國市場上將呈指數(shù)式增長，在2015年在美累計裝機容量將達到1000兆瓦，盡管當前的經(jīng)濟局勢不佳，2009年6月份的銷售也冷淡。經(jīng)濟不景氣導致制造商不看好去年的報告中對增長的預測，但他們?nèi)匀粚_成目標表示樂觀。而這些預測的依據(jù)是聯(lián)邦政府連續(xù)8年的30%的投資稅收優(yōu)惠，民間資本的進入，極大的設備供應和制造能力。States各州狀況Manufacturers report

30、that the fastest growing markets were in the Midwest last year, but the largest markets overall remain in the Northeast, upper Midwest, and California. 制造商的報告聲稱，去年增長最快的市場在中西部，但最大的市場總地來說在東北、中西部北部的州和加州。In general, states that offer small-wind consumer incentives at a level of $2 per Watt of capacity o

31、r more attract the strongest share of the market. In recent years the states with the highest sales percentages have been CA, NV, AZ, OR, NY, MA, and OH. A handful of states, particularly New Jersey, have long had strong market potential due to incentives and robust utility policies, but local permi

32、tting challenges have throttled the markets potential. In early 2010, however, New Jersey and Delaware joined seven other states (CA, NV, WI, VT, MI, OR, and NH) in enacting legislation to streamline the permitting process at the state level, opening the potential of these markets.8 (See also “Marke

33、t Factors and Developments,” page 9) 一般來說，州政府對小風電給予每瓦特兩美元或更高的補貼具有很大的吸引力。近年來美國銷售百分比最高的州為加州、內(nèi)華達、亞利桑那、俄勒岡、紐約、馬薩諸塞、俄亥俄州。少數(shù)幾個州，特別是新澤西，由于激勵政策一直有較強的市場潛力，但是當?shù)氐脑S可制度扼殺了市場的潛力。在2010年初新澤西、特拉華及其他的7個州(加州、內(nèi)華達、威斯康辛、維蒙特、密西根、俄勒岡和新罕布什爾州) 在州的層面上立法簡化許可程序，打開了市場的潛力。(請參見“市場因素和發(fā)展，第9頁”)Quantifying the size of state-level mark

34、ets remains difficult because of the dispersion and complexity of dealer networks. Most manufacturers are unable to report sales figures by state or region. Consequently, a definitive measurement of state markets is beyond the scope of this study. However, manufacturers consistently report that stat

35、e markets can be assessed, generally, in proportion to one another based on the extent of their respective incentive programs and other public policies. California, for example, remains far and away the largest state market due to its relatively long history of generous incentives and streamlined pe

36、rmitting laws. Different policies and financial incentive structures also affect different market niches. For example, robust net metering policies generally open markets for turbines 10 kW and larger, and financial incentives for residential consumers generally create markets for turbines 20 kW and

37、 smaller.量化各州的潛在市場是困難的，因為經(jīng)銷商網(wǎng)絡的分散性和復雜性。大多數(shù)制造商難以提供該州或地區(qū)的確切銷售數(shù)據(jù)。制造商根據(jù)州的激勵政策和其他公共政策，并參照其他州來進行估計。比如加州，由于歷來相對好的激勵措施和較簡單的審批程序，將繼續(xù)成為最大的州市場。政策不同和財政激勵結(jié)構(gòu)不同將導致不同的市場。例如，粗放的凈值計量政策將產(chǎn)生10kW或更大的風機市場，而對居民消費者的融資激勵政策將產(chǎn)生大至20kW的風機市場。Market Factors and Developments市場因素與發(fā)展Federal incentives. On October 3, 2008 Congress pas

38、sed the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008, H.R. 1424, that included an eight-year, 30% federal-level investment tax credit (ITC) to help consumers purchase qualified small wind systems with rated capacities of 100 kW and less. The amount of this credit was stringently capped, however, unt

39、il the passage of The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act(ARRA) of 2009, H.R. 1, on February 17, 2009, which removed the cost caps. A 30% ITC has since been available for small wind turbine consumers. The legislation, in its current form, will last through December 31, 2016.10 聯(lián)邦激勵政策。2008年10月3日美國

40、國會通過了2008年穩(wěn)定經(jīng)濟緊急法案，包括八年的30% 聯(lián)邦投資稅收優(yōu)惠(ITC)幫助消費者購買合格的小風機系統(tǒng)，100kW千瓦的額定能力。原來對總金額有封頂，但是通過美國復蘇與再投資法案后取消了。該項立法將持續(xù)到2016年12月31日。This legislation marked the first federal incentive for small wind technology since 1985 and provides the industry with stable, long-term policy that has historically been out of re

41、ach for other renewables. Industry members value its passage as an important step toward achieving political parity with the solar PV industry, small winds market counterpart, which has enjoyed a federal ITC since 2005. Still, manufacturers report, lopsided state-level incentives continue to favor s

42、olar PV and make true marketplace parity difficult to achieve. 業(yè)內(nèi)人士認為該法案的通過有助于獲得與太陽能光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)相同的激勵措施。但盡管如此，不平衡的州級優(yōu)惠措施繼續(xù)傾向于太陽能。The ARRA also created a U.S. Treasury grant program (Section 1603) allowing commercial consumers, for a limited time, to receive payments in lieu of the ITC. This new incentive st

43、ructure allowed incentives to flow to projects and taxpayers more immediately than a tax credit, which must be redeemed at the end of the fiscal year. The grant program has been instrumental in growing all segments of the wind and solar industries, and AWEA is lobbying for its extension through 2012

44、.ARRA同時也建立了一個美國財政補助計劃(1603部分)使得消費者在一段時間內(nèi)不是受到稅收優(yōu)惠而是直接收到款項。這個新的激勵措施比稅收優(yōu)惠更直接地流向工程項目和納稅人。補助方案對風能和太陽能產(chǎn)業(yè)已經(jīng)起到幫助作用。AWEA正試圖使整個方案擴展到2012年。Additionally, the ARRA created a 30% ITC to help manufacturers of renewable energy equipment, like small wind turbines, invest in the creation, expansion, or re-equipment o

45、f manufacturing facilities (see also “Manufacturing,” page 18).此外，ARRA規(guī)定了30%的稅收優(yōu)惠幫助可再生能源設備的生產(chǎn)商，如小風機生產(chǎn)商投資創(chuàng)新，擴大生產(chǎn)或重購生產(chǎn)設備(請參見“制造業(yè)”，第18頁)。Installer and equipment certification. In December 2009, AWEA finalized a technical standard that can now be used voluntarily to test small wind systems to performanc

46、e and safety criteria. Third-party organizations like the Small Wind Certification Council (SWCC)11 can now certify systems tested to this standard. An average of 6-12 months of field testing is required to meet the standards requirements, so no turbine will likely become certified until the end of

47、2010.安裝與設備認證。在2009年12月份，AWEA通過了小風電運行的技術標準，用于測試小風電系統(tǒng)的性能。第三方組織如小風機認證委員會(SWCC)現(xiàn)在可以按這個標準為系統(tǒng)測試及認證。為達到標準所需，平均實地試驗期為6-12個月，所以2010年底前不太可能有認證通過。Certification has long been a major goal of the small-wind industry, which for decades has largely been self-regulated. Industry members look to certification as a w

48、ay to provide consumers, regulators, and policymakers with transparent and credible information about the safety, performance, and reliability of the technology. Many in the industry see certification as a strong sign of the industrys maturity and as a building block for lasting growth.業(yè)內(nèi)人士把認證作為一種為消

49、費者、監(jiān)管機構(gòu)和決策者有關提供安全、性能和可靠性的透明及可靠的信息的方式。認證是產(chǎn)業(yè)成熟的標志，是持續(xù)增長的基石。The popular Energy Star12 government program, administered by the Department of Energy (DOE) and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to certify many energy-efficient consumer goods, will likely incorporate small wind systems and other re

50、newable generators in the near future. Industry sees great potential for this initiative to take small wind turbines further into mainstream markets. The DOE and EPA indicate they will rely heavily on SWCC certification when granting selective Energy Star labels to qualified equipment.不久的將來，小風機和其他可再

51、生能源也將采用能源部(DOE)的能源星級標識體系和環(huán)境保護署(EPA)的能效體系?？梢灶A見把小風機帶入主流市場的巨大潛力能源部和EPA指出在給合格的設備評定能源標識的時候，他們將在很大程度上取決于SWCC的認證。The North American Board of Certified Energy Practitioners(NABCEP)13 also plans to begin the process of certifying small wind turbine installation professionals in the fall of 2010. This volunta

52、ry program aims to offer experienced installers an opportunity to identify and market themselves as experts in their field. Installation is an important factor in a turbines performance, cost, and public acceptance.NABCEP計劃于2010年秋啟動小風機安裝資質(zhì)的認證。旨在讓該領域內(nèi)有經(jīng)營的安裝團隊有機會推銷自己。安裝在風機的性能、成本和公眾接受力中是一個重要因素。While eq

53、uipment and installer certification programs will be voluntary, market forces are likely to institutionalize them throughout the industry. A number of states and localities have indicated that they plan to make certification a requirement to connect to the electricity grid and/or obtain a zoning per

54、mit. Incentive program managers in numerous states indicate they will require certification, or evidence of intent to achieve certification, in order to be eligible for funding. These states include AZ, CA, IA, MD, ME, MT, NC, NV, OH, VT, and WA.許多州和地區(qū)要求并網(wǎng)的設備必須獲得認證和/或得到區(qū)劃許可。在許多州的刺激方案的管理人員表示要獲得基金，需要提

55、供認證或有證據(jù)表明已獲得認證。這些州包括亞利桑那州、加州、衣阿華州、馬里蘭州、緬因州、蒙大拿州、北卡羅來納州、內(nèi)華達州、俄亥俄州、佛蒙特州和華盛頓州。External investment. Last year an additional $80 million of external private equity was invested in manufacturing companies during the peak of the economic recession, boosting to at least $252.7 million the total of outside e

56、quity invested across 20 manufacturers (most of them U.S.-based) over the past five years. This investment provided companies with capital to increase production, lower costs, meet a sustained demand, and even acquire competitors.外部投資。去年在經(jīng)濟衰退的高峰期，8000萬美金的外部民間資本進入小風電產(chǎn)業(yè)。5年中累計達到2.527億美元，投入到約20家小風電生產(chǎn)企業(yè)，

57、大都是美國企業(yè)。這些投資使企業(yè)得以擴大生產(chǎn)，降低成本、得到持續(xù)的需求也有了對手。美國的32%的風投投向清潔能源技術，但仍偏愛太陽能。Zoning/permitting. Poor or nonexistent local permitting practices continue to thwart an estimated 1/3 of all planned small wind turbine installations. Overly restrictive and cumbersome regulations can limit a turbines productivity, discourage customers and investment, and repel local industry-related businesses from