綜合檢索報(bào)告姜珊紅0921040306.doc

綜合檢索報(bào)告 -人民幣升值對(duì)我國(guó)的影響 the effect of RMB appreciation on China姓名 姜 珊 紅 班級(jí) 09 國(guó)貿(mào)03 學(xué)號(hào) 0921040306 一、檢索策略1、檢索詞：主題詞:（中文）人民幣升值、影響（英文）RMB appreciation、effect相關(guān)詞：（中文） 人民幣匯率（英文）RMB exchange rate副主題詞：（中文）人民幣升值（英文）RMB appreciation 2、構(gòu)造檢索式（布爾邏輯表達(dá)式或網(wǎng)絡(luò)檢索式）時(shí)間：從“2007”到“2012”題名：“人民幣升值”并含“影響”二、檢索來(lái)源（本文所查數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)名或其它來(lái)源）清華數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)、維普數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)、萬(wàn)方數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)、EBSCO、Springer、書(shū)生電子圖書(shū)、超星電子圖書(shū)、谷歌圖書(shū)三、檢索結(jié)果：1、中文期刊（5篇）（1）篇名：淺談人民幣升值對(duì)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易的影響（全文）作者：程博文獻(xiàn)來(lái)源：知識(shí)經(jīng)濟(jì)-2012年3期【摘 要】人民幣升值與我 國(guó)進(jìn) 出口貿(mào)易流量的關(guān)系是弱相關(guān)的，即我國(guó)的對(duì)外貿(mào)易的發(fā)展不是單純由匯率水平?jīng)Q定的。它受許多因素的制約，如對(duì)外貿(mào)易政策，財(cái)政政策，還有企業(yè)的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力及營(yíng)銷(xiāo)戰(zhàn)略，以及貿(mào)易伙伴 國(guó)的貿(mào)易政策及世界經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展?fàn)顩r等等。本文將探討人民幣升值對(duì)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易的影響。（2）篇名：人民幣升值對(duì)我國(guó)制造業(yè)的影響及對(duì)策分析（全文）作者：彭惠琴文獻(xiàn)來(lái)源：對(duì)外經(jīng)貿(mào)-2012年2期【摘 要】近期人民幣持續(xù)升值主要是由于發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家施壓、我國(guó)巨額外匯儲(chǔ)備以及我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)快速增長(zhǎng)等原因，通過(guò)分析人民幣升值對(duì)我國(guó)制造業(yè)產(chǎn)生的正負(fù)效應(yīng)，提 出出口企業(yè)應(yīng)選擇合理的金融衍生工具、積極擴(kuò)大國(guó)內(nèi)市場(chǎng)份額，政府應(yīng)建立健全相關(guān)政策，以提高我國(guó)制造業(yè)應(yīng)對(duì)匯率波動(dòng)的能力，提升國(guó)際競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力，促進(jìn)制造業(yè)的有序、健康發(fā)展。（3）篇名：人民幣升值對(duì)我國(guó)進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易的影響（全文）作者：莊聲浩文獻(xiàn)來(lái)源：企業(yè)家天地：下旬刊-2012年1期【摘 要】近年來(lái)人民幣對(duì)美元匯率持續(xù)走高，人民幣匯率問(wèn)題日漸成為國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)的焦點(diǎn)問(wèn)題。人民幣升值對(duì)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)既帶來(lái)了積極影響，同時(shí)也有負(fù)面作用。但總體來(lái)說(shuō)利大于弊。同時(shí)根據(jù)分析結(jié)果，提出相應(yīng)的建議 。（4）篇名：淺談人民幣升值對(duì)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響及對(duì)策（全文）作者：孫 萍文獻(xiàn)來(lái)源：商場(chǎng)現(xiàn)代化-2012年6期【摘 要】在中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)長(zhǎng)期穩(wěn)定增長(zhǎng)和巨額國(guó)際貿(mào)易順差等因素的推動(dòng)下，人民幣持續(xù)升值，尤其在2008年世界金融危機(jī)以后。人民幣匯率更是屢創(chuàng)歷史新高。人民幣升值在一定程度上對(duì)我國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)與社會(huì)發(fā)展起到了積極作用，但同時(shí)也帶來(lái)了許多負(fù)面影響和沖擊。本文分析了人民幣升值的利與弊，并在此基礎(chǔ)上提出了相關(guān)應(yīng)對(duì)策略 。（5）篇名：論人民幣升值對(duì)外貿(mào)企業(yè)影響及對(duì)策（全文）作者：朱 倩文獻(xiàn)來(lái)源：市場(chǎng)周刊：理論研究-2011年10期【摘 要】 近幾年，人民幣對(duì)外升值對(duì)內(nèi)貶值，CPI節(jié)節(jié)攀高，熱錢(qián)不斷涌入，勞動(dòng)力成本提高，這些都在拷問(wèn)著我國(guó)當(dāng)前的經(jīng)濟(jì)格局。政府、經(jīng)濟(jì)機(jī)構(gòu)、企業(yè)以及一些有識(shí)之士都在密切關(guān)注獻(xiàn)計(jì)獻(xiàn)策，作為受人 民幣升值沖擊較大的外貿(mào)企業(yè)如何應(yīng)對(duì)，關(guān)系著企業(yè)的生存和發(fā)展，如何在經(jīng)濟(jì)浪潮中屹立不敗，發(fā)展壯大，確實(shí)需要我們深思。2、外文期刊（5篇）（1）Title：How Would an Appreciation of the Renminbi and Other East Asian Currencies Affect Chinas Exports?（ Full Text Available）Author：Thorbecke;Willem;Gordon SmithSource：Review of International Economics2010, 18(01)【Abstract】Chinas global current account surplus equaled 9% of Chinese GDP in 2006 and 11% of GDP in 2007. Many argue that a renminbi appreciation would help to rebalance Chinas trade. Using a panel dataset including Chinas exports to 33 countries we find that a 10% renminbi (RMB) appreciation would reduce ordinary exports by 12% and processed exports by less than 4%. A 10% appreciation of all other East Asian currencies would reduce processed exports by 6%. A 10% appreciation throughout the region would reduce processed exports by 10%. Since ordinary exports tend to be simple, labor-intensive goods while processed exports are very sophisticated, capital-intensive goods, a generalized appreciation in East Asia would generate more expenditure-switching towards US and an European goods and contribute more to resolving global imbalances than an appreciation of the RMB or of other Asian currencies alone.（2）Title：Consistent estimates of world trade elasticities and an application to the effects of Chinese Yuan (RMB) appreciation （Full Text Available）Author：Sung Yeung Kwack ；Choong Y. Ahn ；Young S. LeeSource：Journal of Asian economics 2007, 18(2)【Abstract】Import demand equations for 30 industrial and Asian countries are an estimated using cross-country panel data for the period from 1984 to 2003. Income, price, transportation cost, language, location and other any gravity-type variables are found to be highly significant. The income elasticity estimates range from 1.05 to 3.10. The income elasticity of U.S. imports is higher than the income elasticity estimates of U.S. major trading countries, such as Germany and Asian countries. This income a elasticity difference indicates the need for a trend real depreciation of the U.S. dollar to prevent the U.S. trade deficit from expanding a excessively. The price elasticity estimates are between 0.4 and 1.2. The price elasticity estimate of Chinas import demand is 0.5, whereas the export-share-weighted average of the price elasticities of 29 foreign import demands is 0.7. RMB appreciation is found to lower Chinas trade balances with 29 industrial and Asian countries. While the reduction in Chinas trade balance is expected to be substantial with Germany, Japan and Asian tigers, it will be small with the United States.（3）Title：Chinese RMB exchange rate and local currency price stability in ASEAN tradeAuthor：XiaoBing FENG ；Ilan ALONSource：China economic review 2007, 18(4)【Abstract】The article uses trade data between China and ASEAN countries to test hypotheses related to pricing to market (PTM) and consequent local currency price stability (LCPS). The degree of price discrimination associated with real RMB exchange rate changes between China and ASEAN+2 shows evidence of local currency price stability in some industries in which exporters may be less competitive. Chinas trade policy may have also played a role in the local currency price stability. The article finds no evidence that RMB appreciation creates a larger impact on price adjustment than RMB depreciation.（4）Title：Does China really lose from RMB revaluation? Evidence from some export industriesAuthor：Jan P. Voon ；Li Guangzhong ；Jimmy Ran Source：Applied Economics 2006, 38(15)【Abstract】This study attempts to examine the impacts of Real Exchange Rate (RER) misalignment on Chinas export performance. Using the SUR methodology coupled with disaggregate panel export data, it shows that Chinas export sector may not necessarily lose from the Central Governments decision to revalue its RMB against the US dollar because the negative impact of the RER appreciation on Chinese exports may be diluted by the positive impacts attributing to a reduction in the RER misalignment.（5）Title：RMB appreciation and Textiles IndustryAuthor：Zhong Weike. Source：China Chemical Reporter 2007, 17(22)【Abstract】Besides the football worldcup,the hottest topic discussed in the economic cycle of China in July may be the projection on RMB appreciation.Pressure became sensitive when the government announced that the GDP growth rate reached 10.9% in the first half of this year,comparing with 10% in the same period of 2005.On July 21st,2005 the RMB/USD rate was increased by 2.5%.Foreign exchange storage amount also augmented US130 billion compared with the same day in 2005,at then the RMB revalued.An official of supervision department repeated the view that the overheated investment picked up and caused the undue growth.Some experts suggest that the government should promote the importation and expand the change range of RMB/USD rate,or let RMB appreciate again after one year later,and RMB should not peg to the USD that has been going soft.3、學(xué)位論文（中外文各找2篇）（1）篇名：人民幣升值對(duì)我國(guó)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響分析作者：牛海濤學(xué)位授予單位： 東北財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)【摘 要】自從2005年7月21日，中國(guó)的匯率制度調(diào)整為以市場(chǎng)供求為基礎(chǔ)的、參考一籃子貨幣進(jìn)行調(diào)節(jié)、有管理的浮動(dòng)匯率制度以來(lái)，已經(jīng)過(guò)了將近兩年時(shí)間。在這兩年時(shí)間里，人民幣對(duì)美元表現(xiàn)為單向升值，截至2007年6月末，人民幣兌美元匯率為76155人民幣/美元，較2005年匯改后的811人民幣美元累計(jì)升幅超過(guò)6。在整個(gè)國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)中，匯率只是國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的一個(gè)變量，但是在當(dāng)今開(kāi)放經(jīng)濟(jì)條件下，它是一個(gè)非常重要的經(jīng)濟(jì)變量，因?yàn)閰R率變動(dòng)會(huì)影響一個(gè)國(guó)家的資本市場(chǎng)、外貿(mào)、金融、物價(jià)甚至政府行為，即影響整個(gè)國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)的消費(fèi)、投資、政府、進(jìn)出口四個(gè)方面。所以，對(duì)匯率的變動(dòng)問(wèn)題應(yīng)該作為國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)的一件大事來(lái)對(duì)待。同時(shí)，國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)也會(huì)反過(guò)來(lái)影響匯率變動(dòng)，經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)時(shí)本幣升值，經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退時(shí)本幣貶值。人民幣升值對(duì)中國(guó)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響是多方面、全方位的，人民幣升值表現(xiàn)為中國(guó)資產(chǎn)價(jià)格的上升，在形成預(yù)期的基礎(chǔ)上，國(guó)際投資、投機(jī)資本持續(xù)涌入中國(guó)，對(duì)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)造成了巨大的沖擊。進(jìn)入2007年以來(lái)，中國(guó)國(guó)際收支項(xiàng)目持續(xù)雙順差的現(xiàn)象愈演愈烈，外匯儲(chǔ)備達(dá)到創(chuàng)記錄的10663億美元，房地產(chǎn)和股票均大幅上漲，居民消費(fèi)物價(jià)水平快速提高，這些現(xiàn)象與人民幣的升值關(guān)系十分密切。揭示出這種聯(lián)系，并為人民幣升值提出合理的建議，正是本文寫(xiě)作的目的。本文共分五章。第一章是匯率及匯率制度基本理論。了解及掌握匯率制度的種類(lèi)、匯率的決定因素對(duì)理解人民幣升值是不可或缺的，本章在介紹匯率制度理論的基礎(chǔ)上，對(duì)匯率制度對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)影響的文獻(xiàn)進(jìn)行了綜述。第二章是人民幣匯率制度的回顧。本章回顧了建國(guó)以來(lái)各個(gè)時(shí)期的匯率制度，并分析了2005年匯率改革以來(lái)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的總體運(yùn)行情況。第三章是對(duì)人民幣升值原因進(jìn)行分析。人民幣升值與宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行中各部分是相互作用、相互影響的，本章首先討論了決定匯率的各種理論，分析了人民幣升值的原因，得出人民幣在未來(lái)一段時(shí)間內(nèi)將繼續(xù)保持有節(jié)奏升值的結(jié)論。第四章是人民幣升值對(duì)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)影響的分析。自從2005年7月21日，人民幣持續(xù)對(duì)美元表現(xiàn)為單向升值，這種現(xiàn)象必然對(duì)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生巨大影響。進(jìn)入2007年以來(lái)，隨著人民幣升值步幅有所加快，前期升值過(guò)程中在國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)中積累的各種壓力已經(jīng)逐步顯現(xiàn)出來(lái)，理應(yīng)引起我們的重視。第五章是對(duì)人民幣升值的建議。本章首先分析了日元升值給我國(guó)帶來(lái)的經(jīng)驗(yàn)和啟示，分析了日元的快速升值給日本經(jīng)濟(jì)帶來(lái)的正面和負(fù)面沖擊，并在分析人民幣升值前景的基礎(chǔ)上，提出了人民幣升值的合理化建議，以保證我國(guó)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的穩(wěn)定發(fā)展。 （2）篇名：論人民幣升值趨勢(shì)及其對(duì)我國(guó)出口的影響作者：程春燕文獻(xiàn)來(lái)源：廈門(mén)大學(xué)2005年7月21日人民幣匯率改革以來(lái)，人民幣一直處于升值趨勢(shì)中。人民幣升值引起了很多關(guān)注和討論，其中有一大部分是與我國(guó)出口有關(guān)。本文首先對(duì)人民幣匯率未來(lái)走勢(shì)進(jìn)行了分析，指出人民幣匯率將保持長(zhǎng)期漸進(jìn)的升值趨勢(shì)；接著，本文從出口價(jià)格和出口競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力兩方面著重分析了人民幣升值對(duì)我國(guó)出口產(chǎn)生影響的具體作用過(guò)程與相應(yīng)的影響結(jié)果。本文的這種分析不但說(shuō)明了人民幣升值會(huì)對(duì)我國(guó)出口產(chǎn)生什么樣的影響結(jié)果，而且同時(shí)揭示了產(chǎn)生這種影響的原因。這將對(duì)我國(guó)如何妥善處理人民幣匯率改革和調(diào)節(jié)外貿(mào)平衡之間的關(guān)系，具有參考意義。 本文的研究框架如下： 第一章分析匯改后人民幣匯率的變化情況及其未來(lái)走勢(shì)。本文的分析認(rèn)為，人民幣匯率將保持長(zhǎng)期升值趨勢(shì)，但升值將是漸進(jìn)的，年升值幅度將保持在適度的范圍內(nèi)。 第二章從出口成本、出口貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)、匯率對(duì)出口價(jià)格的傳遞效應(yīng)等角度分析了人民幣升值對(duì)我國(guó)商品出口價(jià)格的影響，分析結(jié)果表明，人民幣升值會(huì)導(dǎo)致我國(guó)商品出口價(jià)格上漲，但是上漲幅度遠(yuǎn)小于人民幣升值幅度。 第三章從出口競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力要素自身、進(jìn)口市場(chǎng)需求、出口競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手的替代效應(yīng)等方面分析了人民幣升值對(duì)我國(guó)商品出口競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力的影響，結(jié)果表明，雖然人民幣升值會(huì)使出口價(jià)格上漲一定幅度，但是出口競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力并不會(huì)因此受到削弱。 第四章是結(jié)論與建議。本文的結(jié)論是，人民幣升值對(duì)我國(guó)出口影響不明顯。本文因此建議：(1)人民幣匯率制度的改革不應(yīng)受制于出口方面的壓力；(2)調(diào)節(jié)外貿(mào)順差不能依靠人民幣升值，應(yīng)該綜合考慮其他措施。（3）Title：The effect of a generalized appreciation of East Asian currencies on exports from China.Author：Smith, Gordon RSource：George Mason University【Abstract】Chinas global current account surplus equaled 9 percent of Chinese GDP in 2006 and 12 percent of GDP in the first half of 2007. Many argue that an RMB appreciation would help rebalance Chinas trade. Using a panel data set including Chinas exports to 33 countries we find that a 10 percent RMB appreciation would reduce ordinary exports by 12 percent and processed exports by less than 4 percent. A 10 percent appreciation of all other East Asian currencies would reduce processed exports by 6 percent. A 10 percent appreciation throughout the region would reduce processed exports by 10 percent. Since ordinary exports tend to be simple, labor-intensive goods while processed exports are sophisticated, any capital-intensive goods, a generalized appreciation in East Asia would generate more expenditure-switching towards U.S. and European goods and contribute more to resolving global imbalances than an appreciation of the RMB or other Asian currencies alone. （4）Title：Essays on Chinas Macro-economy and Credit Market.Author：Zhang, Yuanyan.Source：University of California, Los Angeles.【Abstract】In the past two decades, the world has witnessed an very unprecedented growth of GDP in China. And the growth has largely been driven by the surging current surplus, which results in large really international reserves accumulation. The effect of this gigantic build up of reserves has been a source of growing public attention in the context of the debate on global imbalances. A common argument is that the culprit of global imbalances is a result of exchange rate manipulation by the Chinese authorities, which peg the RMB to the dollar at a low value. Chapter one looks at the real exchange rate movement in China and in other foreign currency inflow countries during the period with massive many international reserves accumulation. In this chapter, we introduce the idea of sterilization by the people, which refers to the concept of increasing money demand partially offsetting the effect of increasing money supply. And we find that sterilization by the people plays a dominant role in mitigating the real exchange rate appreciation pressure in China. This finding is consistent with the high savings rate, largely in the form of M2 in China. Further development of the financial system and improvement of the social safety net may reduce peoples demand for the monetary balance and lead to the real exchange rate appreciation to a new equilibrium.Chapter two analyzes Chinas business cycle by linking its credit market with the real economy. To be more specific, it studies the role of credit market imperfection and sectoral asymmetry as means through which shocks to the real economy are propagated and amplified. Most Chinese firms finance their investment by internal funds, which explain the high and ever-growing corporate savings in the recent decade. This is due to the lack of access to the external funds, in other words, credit constraints. With its credit constraint more binding, the very non-tradable sector experiences larger fluctuation in investment and output than the tradable sector. Hence, we observe the non-uniform credit market imperfection and unbalanced business fluctuation across sectors. Both chapter one and two are centered on the macroeconomic consequences of the high savings rate in China. Chapter three analyzes its potential drivers. It is found that the high savings rate is mainly contributed to the high corporate savings that result from the growing enterprise profits and low dividend payout. And the credit market imperfection is mainly responsible for firms dependence on internal financing, particularly for the small private firms. 4、 網(wǎng)絡(luò)上相關(guān)網(wǎng)頁(yè)(10頁(yè)) (只列題名，IP地址.)(注意相關(guān)度)(1)RMB Appreciation and Chinas Economy/06/14/rmb-appreciation-chinas-economy/(2)分析：人民幣升值的十大利弊影響（人民幣匯率升值）/100913/169/ybeg.html(3)淺談人民幣升值對(duì)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響/new/21602_23217_/2009_5_11_li721552024111590024725.shtml(4)人民幣升值的影響_利弊_原因/article/2010-06-08/0000081102s.shtml(5)人民幣升值的影響及對(duì)策/GB/49154/49155/7126049.html(6)人民幣升值不會(huì)影響出口/special/focus275/(7)人民幣升值對(duì)我國(guó)對(duì)外貿(mào)易的影響./guojimaoyi/090306/10400292.html(8)人民比對(duì)基金的影響幾何/news/rmb510/(9)人民幣升值的影響及投資策略/100322/134,1509,7415532,00.shtml(10) IMF：人民幣升值影響有限 /story/0010397255、會(huì)議論文（2篇）（1）人民幣升值對(duì)中國(guó)產(chǎn)品價(jià)值競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力影響的實(shí)證分析第十三屆亞太質(zhì)量組織國(guó)際會(huì)議暨第六屆中國(guó)上海國(guó)際質(zhì)量研討會(huì)2007年10月18日（2）人民幣升值對(duì)我國(guó)大米進(jìn)出口影響的實(shí)證分析 2008年全國(guó)中青年農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)者年會(huì) 2008年11月21日6、中外文電子圖書(shū)（相關(guān)專(zhuān)業(yè)）各3種，說(shuō)明來(lái)源，格式，書(shū)名，作者，標(biāo)準(zhǔn)書(shū)號(hào)，有無(wú)全文。（1）來(lái)源：超星電子圖書(shū)格式：PDF書(shū)名：人民幣升值對(duì)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響 （全文）作者：劉崇獻(xiàn), 李彤標(biāo)準(zhǔn)書(shū)號(hào)：7501792992, 9787501792993（2）來(lái)源： 書(shū)生電子圖書(shū)格式：PDF書(shū)名：人民幣升值爭(zhēng)議 （無(wú)全文）作者：范祖德標(biāo)準(zhǔn)書(shū)號(hào)：7501942617, 9787501942619（3）來(lái)源：書(shū)生電子圖書(shū)格式：PDF書(shū)名：人民幣升值與你的財(cái)富關(guān)鍵30問(wèn) （無(wú)全文）作者：楊翠迎標(biāo)準(zhǔn)書(shū)號(hào)：9866165000, 9789866165009（4）source：BSP(Business Source Premier)format：PDFtitle: The impacts of Renminbi appreciation on trades flows and reserve accumulation in a monetary trade modelauthor: Li Wang, John Whalley, National Bureau of Economic ResearchISBN: 082136040X（5）source：BSP(Business Source Premier) format：PDFtitle: How Would an Appreciation of the Renminbi and Other East Asian Currencies Affect Chinas Exports?author: Thorbecke, WillemISBN: 09657576(6) source：BSP(Business Source Premier)format：PDFtitle: Excess Liquidity, Inflation and the Yuan Appreciation: What Can China Learn from Recent History?author: A. van NunenISBN：03785920四、綜述報(bào)告（含課題研究目的、技術(shù)背景、現(xiàn)狀分析、市場(chǎng)分析，展望等，500-1000字左右。（文科同學(xué)800-1500字）人民幣升值表現(xiàn)為一單位外幣兌換的人民幣單位數(shù)額比以前減少,或者說(shuō)一單位人民幣可以兌換 比以前更多的外幣。人民幣升值直觀地體現(xiàn)在外匯匯率上，以人民幣兌換美元為例：2005年7月21日用1