羅蘭貝格—化學(xué)行業(yè)分析報告(英文版ppt ).ppt

,Noordwijk,October4,2004,Prof.RolandBergerChairman,RolandBergerStrategyConsultants,EUenlargementnewopportunitiesforthechemicalindustry,ThechangingfaceofEuropeChallengesandopportunitiesofenlargementforEU15OpportunitiesforEU15chemicalplayersinCEEandCISConclusion,Contents,A.,ThechangingfaceofEurope,%ofEU25,France,Germany,ItalyandBenelux:Sixwealthycorecountriesstarteconomicintegrationprocessin1957,1.1,EU6(1957)*,*2003data,Europescorecountrieshadsluggishgrowthoverthelasttenyears:Averagegrowth1.3%p.a.inGermany,1.7%inFrance,2.5%Netherlands,118.0%,75.5%,%ofUS,GDPUSDbn,6,494,58.9%,59.0%,Denmark,IrelandandtheUnitedKingdom:Firstacces-sionroundafter16yearsincreaseseconomicpower,1.2,EU9(1973)*,*2003data,AsaresultofEUintegration,Irelandseconomicgrowthhasbeenout-standinglyhighoverthepasttenyears:7.6%p.a.(DK2.1%,UK2.8%),120.2%,76.9%,GDPUSDbn,8,655,78.5%,78.8%,%ofEU25,%ofUS,Greece:ApoorercountryjoinstheEuropeanUnionin1981firstdiscussionsaboutdilution,1.3,EU10(1981)*,*2003data,Greecenowhashighaveragegrowthrates(3.8%p.a.from1995-2004)partlyduetoEuropeanmoneyfromstructural/regionalfunds,GDPUSDbn,8,827,80.0%,80.3%,118.3%,75.6%,%ofEU25,%ofUS,SpainandPortugal:AccessionoftwolessdevelopedsoutherncountriesreducesEUsaveragewealth,1.4,EU12(1986)*,*2003data,Today,thesoutherncountriescontributetoEUgrowth:Spain(3.3%p.a.since1995)andPortugal(2.4%p.a.)achievedhighaveragegrowthrates,GDPUSDbn,9,816,89.0%,89.3%,112.8%,72.2%,%ofEU25,%ofUS,Sweden,FinlandandAustria:EuropesnorthernenlargementpushesuptheaverageGDPpercapita,1.5,EU15(1995)*,*2003data,StimulustoEUgrowthoverthepasttenyears:Finlandseconomygrew3.5%p.a.onaverage,Swedens2.7%p.a.,andAustrias2.0%p.a.,GDPUSDbn,10,534,95.5%,95.9%,114.1%,73.0%,%ofEU25,%ofUS,EasternEurope,MaltaandCyprus:ThebiggestroundofenlargementeverchangesthefaceofEurope,1.2,EU25(2004)*,*2003data,GDPgrowthratesofupto6.5%p.a.inCEE(average4.4%p.a.since95)But:EnlargementisabigchallengeforEuropeanUniontocreatewealth,64.0%,%ofUS,50yearsofenlargement:ComparedtotheUS,theEUhasgainedsizeattheexpenseofaveragewealth,Today,EuropesGDPpercapitaisonlyabouttwo-thirdsthatoftheUSintermsoftotalGDP,botheconomiesarenowcomparable,EUvs.US*US=100%,59.0,77.5,80.3,89.3,95.9,100.4,78.0,102.0,106.2,123.8,130.5,156.0,75.5,76.9,75.6,72.2,73.0,64.0,1957EU6,1973EU9,1981EU10,1986EU12,1995EU15,2004EU25,GDP,Inhabitants,GDPpercapita,US=100,*basedon2003data,1.3,Wealthgap:Tenyearsago,thenorthoftheEuropeanUnionwasrichandthesouthwaspoor,2.1,SouthgainedwealthinEU:From34.4%ofEU-9(1986)to59.8%today,1995:Gapbetweennorthandsouth*,1995,*2003data*EU12*Portugal,Spain,Greece,GDPUSDbn,Unemployment%,Populationm,SOUTH*,NORTH*,1,161,9,373,13.4,9.2,62,319,RATIO,9:1,GDPpercapitaUSD,18,726,29,383,3:2,2:3,5:1,Today,thegapisbetweeneastandwestGDPpercapitaintheEU15isfourtimeshigherthaninEU10,2.2,2004:Gapbetweeneastandwest,EUsupportwillhelpEU10economicdevelopmenttoreachEU15wealth,2003,EU10,EU15,493,10,534,10.5,8.5,74,381,RATIO,21:1,4:5,5:1,GDPUSDbn,Unemployment%,Populationm,GDPpercapitaUSD,EU25vs.USvs.Asia:EnlargedEUisastillpowerful,buttheslowestgrowingeconomicregionintheworld,3.,Opportunity:TennewstatesgivetheEUmomentumtoincreasegrowth,ECONOMICPOWERGDP,USDbn,Comparativeindicators2003,POPULATIONm,WEALTHGDPpercapita,USD,GROWTHavg.GDPgrowth1999-2003,%,10,988,290,3.3,11,028,455,2.3,US,EU25,ASIA*,*AggregateddataforJapan,China,ASEAN,8,458,1,947,4.8,37,890,24,237,12,058,B.,ChallengesandopportunitiesofenlargementforEU15,Eastwardenlargemententailsthreatsandopportunitiesforeconomies,companies,andgovernments,EconomiesUnitlaborcostadvantagesinEU10challengeexistingvaluecreationstructuresinEU15,butalsooffermomentumforstructuralchange/innovationinEU15CompaniesCompetitioninEU15aswellasinEU10isincreasing,butalsonewsales,investment,growthandrelocationopportunitiesforEU15companiesinEasternEuropeGovernmentsExistinginstitutionalsetupsinEU15arechallengedbylowertaxes/contributionsandhigherflexibilityinEU10,butalsomomentumforpoliticalchange,Effectsofenlargementonmacroeconomicandmicroeconomiclevels,Macroeconomicthreats:PressureonEU15labormarketsandcompetitionforbestinstitutionalsetup,Lowwage-competition/unemploymentthreatsMigration(upto3.8mpeoplefromCEEwillmovetotheEU15)Offshoring(e.g.830,000peopleinCEEemployedbyGermanfirmsin2004)Lowtax/socialcontributionscompetitionAlso:Lessregulation(e.g.IMDbureaucracyindex:Estoniaranked9th,UKranked33rd)Financialburden(EUbudget)Costofenlargement(2004-2006):49bnEUR,Differences:Countrieswithhighdegreeofregulation,geographicalproximitytoCEEandnetcontributorstoEUbudgetaremoreaffected,1.1,39,0,19,0,15,0,0,0,17,4,15,0,8,5,12,5,GER,POL,LIT,EST,Taxes,Contributions,CORPORATETAXES%/SOCIALCONTRIBUTIONS2004%ofGDP,Macroeconomicopportunities:Highergrowthmomen-tumforstructural/institutionalchangeandinnovation,EnhancedgrowthineastandwestEU15benefitsfrombacklogofdemandinCEENewmomentuminNewEuropethroughincreasedtrade/know-howMomentumforstructuralchange/innovationLabor-intensive/lowvaluecreationindustries/productsnolongercompetitiveinEU15Structuralchangetowardshigh-techgoodsandservicestheonlychoiceforOldEurope(-growth/wealth)MomentumforinstitutionalchangeRegulations,taxes,subsidies,flexiblemarkets,EUenlargementhelpspolicymakersbringaboutnecessarybutoftenunpopularstructuralreformsintheirrespectivecountries,1.2,Source:EUCommission,IMPACTOF2004ENLARGEMENTONGDPGROWTH%,Microeconomicthreats:IncreasingcompetitionforEU15duetolowerlabor/unitcostsinEasternEurope,Differences:Matureindustriesmoreaffectedthaninnovativeones,borderregionsmorethanwestern,smallcompaniesmorethanlarge,2.1,2.82,1.19,0.56,-0.15,-1.03,-2.26,Chemi-cals,Medicaltechno-logy,ITequip-ment,Auto-motive,Steelindustry,Wood,IndustrieswithcomparativeADVANTAGEinGER,IndustrieswithcomparativeDISADVANTAGEinGER,MoreattractivebusinessconditionsinCEELaborcostsonlybetween10.4%(Slova-kia)and17.8%(Hungary)ofEU15levelTaxeslowerandsocialcontributionsonlybetween10.0%(Poland)and16.3%(CzechRepublic)ofGermanlevelCapitalcostsabout20%lowerbecauseoflowerinvestmentneedsduetoflexiblelabormarketsNeedforIndustryrestructuringInnovation(creativedestruction),REVEALEDCOMPARATIVEADVANTAGEGERMANYVS.EASTERNEUROPEIndex,Microeconomicopportunities:CEEoffersnewmarketsandgrowth/investment/offshoringopportunities,LaborcostsinCEEwillremainattractiveforatleast30moreyears,2.2,2001,2010,2020,2030,39.4,66.3,POL,42.4,67.9,EST,61.4,78.5,CZR,71.5,84.1,SLO,100,EU15,Newmarketsforinfrastructure,capitalandconsumergoods75mnewconsumerswithincreasingpurchasingpowerforconsumergoodsHighdemandformodernizedinfrastructureandcapitalgoodsNewgrowthandinvestmentopportunitiesPrivatizationofstate-ownedcompaniesAcquisition/restructuringofEU10enterprisesLowunitcoststhroughoffshoringSetupofownproductionfacilitiesOutsourcingoflabor-intensiveproductionLowertaxesandsocialcontributions,CONVERGENCEINPERCAPITAINCOMEindex,EU15=100,Resultof2004enlargement:NewEuropeandivisionoflaborbasedonregionalcomparativeadvantages,RELATIVEABUNDANCEOFCAPITALANDTECHNOLOGY,WESTERNEUROPE:Capital/knowledge-intensiveeconomies,EASTERNEUROPE:Labor-intensiveeconomies,RELATIVEABUNDANCEOFLABORATLOWCOSTS,3.,Freeexchangeofgoodsandservices,financialandhumancapitalwillallowEUtocompeteheadtoheadwiththeUnitedStatesandAsia,96.2,109.8,117.2,97.7,121.1,132.6,134.7,74.8,1999,2000,2001,2002,=ImportsfromCEE,=ExportstoCEE,BRAIN,BRAIN,TRADERELATIONSBETWEENEU15ANDCEEEURbn,MajorindustrialsectorsarealreadyreapingthebenefitsofthenewEuropeandivisionoflaborthroughFDIs,4.,LeadingsectorsintermsofFDIinEasternEurope,=%ofallextra-EU15flows,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001,2002,6.0,9.8,12.1,19.9,16.3,5.5,4.5,3.9,4.9,12.4,16.1,6.3,Alsochemicalfirmshavemovedeastwardsinsearchofnewmarkets.,AUTOMOTIVE,FINANCIALSERVICES,FOOD,TELECOMS,26.9%ofallGermanFDIflowsgotoCEE,EU15FDIINCEE1997-2002EURbn,C.,OpportunitiesforEU15chemicalplayersinCEEandCIS,ChemicalindustryinCEE/CIS:Stillsmallinsizebutgrowingat2.5timesthespeedofWesternEurope,Chemicaloutputgrowth2004-2014%p.a.,Chemicalrevenuesof34.3bnUSDinEasternEurope(CEE23.5bnUSD,CIS10.8bnUSD)arecomparableinsizetoIrelandortheNetherlands,8.5,7.5,5.3,4.9,4.2,2.2,1.9,1.2,IND,CHN,CEE,CIS,MiddleEast,EU15,JPN,NAFTA,2.3,5.3,1.6,0.8,3.6,33.0,11.0,27.8,Globalshare%,1.,1,2,3,4,5,CEEvs.CIS:Basicstructuraldifferencesinchemicalsdespiteofsimilarlygoodgrowthperspectives,2.,Verydifferent(marketentry)strategiesnecessaryforCEEandCIS!,1)Poland,CzechRepublic,Romania,Hungary,Slovakia,Bulgaria,2)Russia,Ukraine,Kazakhstan,Uzbekistan,Azerbaijan,Georgia,Moldova,CEE1),CIS2),PLAYERS/ACTIVITIES,Local/regionalplayersproducingvalue-addedchemicals,Bigprivateoil/gascompaniesproducingmainlypetrochemicalsandcommodities,COMPETI-TIVENESS,Domesticallybutnotyetgloballycom-petitiveproduction/assetfootprint,Uncompetitiveproduction/logistics,butcompetitiverawmaterials/feedstock,TRADE,Highimportsofhigh-/medium-valuechemicals,lowlevelofexports,Highpetrochemicalexports,highconsumerchemicalsimports,DEGREEOFPRIVATIZATION,State-owned/-controlledcompaniesstilldominant,PrivatizationofRussianplayerslargelycompleted(Renationalization?),ACTIVITIESOFWESTERNCOMPANIES,GreenfieldinvestmentsandJVsinconsumer-drivensegments,Demand-drivenGreenfieldandsupply-drivenBrownfieldinvestments/JVs,Players/activities:Localplayersproducingvalue-addedchemicalsinCEECISstronginrawmaterials,2.1,Local/regionalplayersinCEEandstrongresource-drivenplayersinCIS,CEE,CIS,PLAYERS:Weak,bigstate-owned/-controlledplayersandsomestrongprivatelocal/regionalchemicalproducersLargestplayersonvariousvalue-chainlevels:CIECH,ZakladyAzotowe,Unipetrol,Duslo,NovackeChemickeZavody,etc.ACTIVITIES:Value-addedchemicalproductionsitesinallpartsofCEEEthylene:CZ,HU,PL,RO,BG,SLPolyethylene:HU,PL,CZ,HUAmmoniumnitrate:PL,SK,BG,RO,PLAYERS:Strongoil/gascompaniesandweakSMEsLargeoil/gascompanies:Yukos,Lukoil,SurgutneftegasSomeagrochemicalcompanies:Azot,Akron,PhosAgro,Eurockim,UralkaliiACTIVITIES:Productionoflow-costcommodities(gas,rawmaterialandenergy-basedchemicals)DispersedanddislocatedproductioncentersremainfromSovieteraProductioninCISdropped60%inearly1990stodaymoreorlessat1990levelagainUnfavorablelogisticsforworldmarkets,Competitiveness:CEEassetscompetitivedomesticallyCISassetsnot,butcompetitiverawmaterials,2.2,ASSETS:Productionsitesarecompetitive(technology,scale)butonlyondomesticmarketsExample(AmmoniumnitrateproductioninPulawy,Poland):Capacity700ktMinimumdomesticsize550ktMinimumglobalsize1,000ktLABORPRODUCTIVITY:Uncompetitivevs.EU15industryturnoverperemployeeat30%ofEU15levelin2003Significantincreases:Upfrom19%in1995,ASSETS:Uncompetitiveproductionsites,butcompetitiverawmaterialsExample:Methanolandderivatives(NaturalgasatMiddleEasterncostsof60-75cents/MBTU)FullyfledgedcombinatesanddislocationofprocesschainsUncompetitivelogisticscostsLABORPRODUCTIVITY:Uncompetitivevs.EU15industryturnoverperemployeeonlyat3%ofEU15levelin2003Stagnatingorevendecreasing:In1995CISproductivitylevelwas4%ofEU15,CEEslowlycatchesupwithEU15efficiencyunsolvedproblemsinCIS,CEE,CIS,Trade:HighlevelofimportsinbothCEEandCISCISwithsignificantexportsofmainlycommodities,2.3,HIGHIMPORTS:16.6bnUSDSpecialty/finechemicalspolymersConsumerchemicalsLOWEXPORTS:5.0bnUSDPolymersPetrochemicalsDOMESTICPRODUCTIONcovers53%ofdomesticdemandof35.1bnUSD,HIGHIMPORTS:8.1bnUSDConsumerchemicalsHIGHEXPORTS:7.0bnUSDAgrochemicals/fertilizersRawmaterial-basedchemicalsGas-basedchemicalsDOMESTICPRODUCTIONcovers32%ofdomesticdemandof11.9bnUSD,Increasinghigh-valueaddedimportsinCEE/CISinthecomingyearslikelytobefollowedbyimportsubstitutioninternationalinvestments,CEE*,CIS*,*)2002/2003data,Degreeofprivatization:MostplayersinCISareinprivatehandstodayCEEstilllargelystate-owned,2.4,EXTENTOFPRIVATIZATION:OnlyinHungary/Slovakiaprivatizationhasbeencompleted,inPoland/CzechRepublicthestatestillholdsmajorsharesRECENTDEVELOPMENTSPoland:CIECHgrouppartiallyprivatizedinSeptember2004(IPO)CzechRepublic:Unipetrolsold63%toPKNbutsignificantrestructuringandfurtherownershipchangesareexpectedOUTLOOK:PrivatizedCEEplayerswillenhancetheirimpactviaM&AsinCEE,EXTENTOFPRIVATIZATION:InRussia,morethan96%ofthetop400chemicalfirmsareprivatized,inrestofCISongoingprocessRECENTDEVELOPMENTSRussia:JointventureswithWesterncompanies,e.g.GazpromwithSiburandNizhnekamskneftekhimwithBASFOngoingactivitiesalsoinrestofCIS:IntheUkraineaprivatizationprogramoflargeenterpriseshasjustbeenapprovedOUTLOOK:Technology-andknow-how-basedinputofWesterncompanieswillincrease,Privatization/restructuringisstillanissueinPolandandtheCzechRepubliccompaniesinCISaremoreopenforpartnership/know-how,CEE,CIS,LikelyfuturedevelopmentsinCEE:SignificantchangesinindustrystructureopportunitiesforEUfirms,3.1,SignificantindustrystructurechangesareexpectedOnlyfewcompetitivecompaniesremain,many(evenprivatized,butuncompetitive)companiesarelikelytofailUnclearroleofstate-ownedcompaniesbig,stillstate-ownedcompaniesarelikelytostay(evenifprivatizationfails)Privatizedcompaniesthatareactiveinrestructuring/M&AswillfollowtheirpathmainlywithoutWesternpartnersCEEchemicalcompaniescanbecomeseriouscompetitorsontheEUstage,CapturemarketpotentialandgrowththroughexportandFDIEntermarketwithbrandandmarketingpowerParticipateinmarketdevelopmentsthroughGreenfieldinvestmentsUsetimewindowoflowfactorcoststooptimizeEU25globalfootprintCapturetheadvantageofhomogeneousEU-25policyandmarket,EUfirmsmustintegratethenewCEEcountriesintheirEU-25strategies,KEYDEVELOPMENTSINCEE,OPPORTUNITIESFORWESTERNCOMPANIES,LikelyfuturedevelopmentsinCIS:LargeplayerswinagainstsmallonesalsoopportunitiesforEUfirms,3.2,Biggas-oil-drivenandWesterncom-panieswillgainmomentumagainstSMEsManySMEsarelikelytodisappear(weakfinancialresources,limitedmarketingpower,lackofR&D,uncompetitivepriceposition,etc.)Gas-/oil-basedandselectedrawmaterial-basedcompanieswillexpandtheirchemicalsportfoliodownstreamOftenincooperationwithinternationalpartnersOpenforFDIs,Participateinrawmaterial/supplyadvantagebytradingintechnologyandprocessknow-howandcapitalCooperatewithbigoil/gasandrawmaterialfirmsCaptureconsumption-drivenmarketpotentialthroughGreenfieldinvestmentsorjointventurewithrawmaterial/basicchemicalsmanufacturersInthemeantime:Buildupconsumer-drivensegmentswithexportandmarketingactivitiesinCIS,EUfirmscancapturesupply/energyadvantagesandmarketpotential,KEYDEVELOPMENTSINCEE,O