德勤—中石化財務(wù)控制咨詢報告

石油化工股份有限公司財務(wù)成本分析項目方案,備注:本文檔所包含的內(nèi)容屬于DQ咨詢的商業(yè)機(jī)密，其知識產(chǎn)權(quán)也歸DQ咨詢所有，任何個人與實體在未經(jīng)DQ咨詢許可的情況下不得復(fù)制與分發(fā)。,二零零一年四月十日,目錄,DQDQ咨詢對于石化成本分析項目的理解DQ咨詢對于石油化工行業(yè)的成本分析案例介紹股東價值驅(qū)動的分析模型如何在石化一體企業(yè)中實施財務(wù)分析系統(tǒng)DQ咨詢推薦的對于石化成本分析的解決方案規(guī)劃DQ咨詢實施工具介紹問答,目錄,DQDQ咨詢對于中石化成本分析項目的理解DQ咨詢對于石油化工行業(yè)的成本分析案例介紹股東價值驅(qū)動的分析模型如何在石化一體企業(yè)中實施財務(wù)分析系統(tǒng)DQ咨詢推薦的對于中石化成本分析的解決方案規(guī)劃DQ咨詢預(yù)計的本階段項目實施的范圍DQ咨詢實施工具介紹問答,中石化財務(wù)管理信息系統(tǒng)建設(shè)的整體目標(biāo),中石化產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈與成本管理,原油勘探,原油開采,煉油,化工生產(chǎn),產(chǎn)品銷售,成本核算/管理,生產(chǎn)成本,管理成本,銷售成本,全方位成本管理,采夠成本,股東價值驅(qū)動的分析模型,指標(biāo),運作,價值管理需要以下三個核心部分有效地運作,價值管理,戰(zhàn)略,超前的戰(zhàn)略領(lǐng)先的地位,系統(tǒng)流程管理,準(zhǔn)確的指標(biāo)準(zhǔn)確的尺度,價值衡量需要有一整套指數(shù),EVAisaregisteredtrademarkoftheSternStewartCompany,最可靠的衡量指數(shù):,股東回報率TotalShareholderReturn(TSR)投資資本的現(xiàn)金流回報Cashflowreturnongrossinvestedcapital(CFROI)加權(quán)平均的資本成本W(wǎng)eighted-AverageCostofCapital(WACC)可持續(xù)的資產(chǎn)增長率SustainableAssetGrowthRate未來現(xiàn)金流量的凈現(xiàn)值Netpresentvalueoffuturecashflows(NPVorDCF),是否在創(chuàng)造價值?表現(xiàn)如何?什么是最低投資回報?如何衡量增長?公司的價值?,需要衡量的對象.,股東回報率TSR衡量上市公司的價值增長,為什么TSR是衡量價值增長的最好指標(biāo),股東回報率TSR定義,TSR=(市場差價+分紅)/價格=(2+1)/10=30%,12,1,10,股價t=0,分紅,股價t=n,反映了公司最終擁有者的回報率用作各投資機(jī)構(gòu)的積分卡不受會計操作的影響全面體現(xiàn)獲利率和和增長率是高層管理者持股分配的基礎(chǔ),股票價格,分紅,獲利率和增長率驅(qū)動股價,股東回報率(TSR),衡量分析指數(shù),投資者回報,TSR定義,投資資本的現(xiàn)金流回報CFROI,可持續(xù)增長,自由現(xiàn)金流,投資資本的現(xiàn)金流回報CFROI全面衡量公司業(yè)績,當(dāng)上市公司擁有以下特征時，較為適合使用CFROI:長年限的固定資產(chǎn)(平均超過15年)具有大量固定資產(chǎn)固定資產(chǎn)非常陳舊或非常新具有大型投資模板和行為,益處,CFROI定義,跨國家，跨行業(yè)，跨時間比較不受資產(chǎn)的年限和組合的影響全面使內(nèi)部決策和外部資本市場的表現(xiàn)掛鉤提供投資項目的回顧審計與資本成本可直接比較,CFROI計算結(jié)果(1999年),542406446,06822,29210,4119,36948,140,564216312141383891,NetIncomeDepreciationInterestExpenseMinorityInterestGrossCashFlow,NetWorkingCapital+Land+Investments=NonDepreciatingAssetsNetFixedAssetsAccum.Depr.*InflationAdjustment*GrossInvestment,資產(chǎn)年限=20,營運資本+土地,Sinopec1999($millions),Source:DCAnalysis,Companyfinancialstatements,CFROI=IRR=6.1%,48,140,4,079,6,068,*DCEstimates,Peers?CostofCapital?PlanCFROI?,IRR：內(nèi)部收益率,592707396,66622,89710,5999,53949,701,1926*2322*814*110*5172*,NetIncomeDepreciationInterestExpenseMinorityInterestGrossCashFlow,NetWorkingCapital+Land+Investments=NonDepreciatingAssetsNetFixedAssetsAccum.Depr.*InflationAdjustment*GrossInvestment,資產(chǎn)年限=20,營運資本+土地,Sinopec2000($millions),Source:DCAnalysis,Companyfinancialstatements,CFROI=IRR=8.6%,49,701,5,172,6,666,*DCEstimates,Peers?CostofCapital?PlanCFROI?,CFROI計算結(jié)果(2000年),IRR：內(nèi)部收益率,PositiveSpreadBusiness,NeutralSpreadBusiness,NegativeSpreadBusiness,DiscountRate:WACC,IncreaseCFROIHoldCFROIGrowAssetsErodeCFROIGrowFaster,IncreaseCFROIThenGrow,IncreaseCFROIReduceReinvestmentDivestorLiquidate,CFROI%,StrategiesforValueCreation,任何業(yè)務(wù)都可創(chuàng)造價值但需要按不同的情況設(shè)定戰(zhàn)略,Note:thisappliestobusinessunitsaswellascorporationsoverall,市場是如何設(shè)定股價的?,CFROI,AssetSize,Fade,NetCashFlows,1+DiscountRate,SharePrice,AssetGrowth,=,Investors,評估使用表現(xiàn)指標(biāo)和貼現(xiàn)現(xiàn)金流量,GrossInvestment,SustainableGrowth,PVCashFlowExistingAssetsPVCashFlowFutureInvestmentTotalEconomicValue-MarketValueofDebt1)EquityValue,34236-102633210-1268720523,1)ST<,minorityinterest,2.2%,$49,701m,8.2%,10%,$mil,$29.83/share,FadeRate,DiscountRate,7.0%,CFROI,Sinopec,Fiscal2000estimate,的股價是由CFROI和增長決定的,,RealAssetGrowthRate(%),CFROI(%),15.7417.1117.814.2,30.7029.8328.628.2,46.5243.2340.0612.2,Sinopecequityvalue(fiscal2000),BaseCase,Whatisitworthifweimprove?,Note:GrowthonlyimprovesvalueifCFROIimprovesto“positivespread”,如何在一體企業(yè)中實施財務(wù)分析系統(tǒng),CEO/Board,BusinessUnits,Operations,HowdoIinfluenceSharePrice?,Whatisthebestwaytoallocatemycapital?,HowdoIimproveexecution?,Determinewherevalueisbeingcreated/destroyed,Allocatecapitallikeaportfoliomanager,Implementaconsistent&planningprocesslinkedtoKPIsandcomp.,Communicatetothemarketinalanguagetheyrespondto,FundManagers,Shareholders,HowdoImaximizeshareholderreturns?,Realizemaximumvalueforshareholders-TSR,股價和運營的聯(lián)接,各種價值指標(biāo)的波動直接影響股價,ValueSinopec,CFROI1.1%,AssetLife20years,AssetTurns0.36,GrossPlantAssetTurns0.44,NetCashFlow,AssetGrowth0.46%,FadeRate10%/year,SizeDifferential-.72,LeverageDifferential+.57,GrossCashFlow2.394,AdjustedGrossAssets48,002,Non-Dep.Assets6,666,OperatingMargin16.2%,SalesGrowth-?%,COGSasa%ofSales78.1%,SG&Aasa%ofSales5.6%,InventoryTurns3.98,A/RTurns9.11,CFROIVariabilityHigh,PloughbackLowtoAverage,CountryDiscountRate6.5%,1+WACC,=,UnitVolume,PriceRealisation,ValueDriversprovidethedirectionandKPIsprovidethefeedback.Amulti-tiersystemofmeasuresisoptimal,withthemostaccurate(andusuallycomplicated)usedbythefinancedepartment.Fromthereon,simplificationandcontrollabilityofKPIsiscriticalastheyaredrivenbroadlyanddeeplythroughouttheorganisation,RevenueGrowth,OperatingMargins/Expenses,WorkingCapital,AssetProductivity,StimulateSalesEconomicDevelActivitiesExpandserviceterritory,ManageCostFuelusageWageRates,ManageCashBilling/CollectionCycleFuelandStockInvestment,ReturnonCapitalAssetAvailabilityAssetUtilisation,CashFlow,Investment,財務(wù)回報,價值驅(qū)動,KPIs,%RevNewProducts%RevNewMarkets,Averageheatrate%CostReduction,InventoryTurnsReceivableTurns,EquivalentAvailabilityCapacityFactor,方向,反饋,戰(zhàn)略,我們該觀注什么?,我們?nèi)绾稳プ?,如何知道我們做得對?,KPI被用于監(jiān)督運作，反饋于目標(biāo)設(shè)立,什么是目標(biāo)?,XXXPEC,Chemicals,Marketing,Refining,Upstream,StrategyfocusedoncompetitivepositionandnewproductsCostcontrol,capacityutilization,newproductdevelopmentandproductlinemanagement,StrategyfocusedoncompetitivepositionPricing,regionalshiftsandformateconomicsarekeydriversManysmallbetsValuedrivenbycustomerstrategy,storeeconomicsandgrowth,StrategyfocusedonflexibilityversusefficiencyLockedintoLPMindset?Find“outofbox”optionsCostcontrolandthroughputarekeyshort-termvaluedrivers,StrategyfocusedoninvestmentoptionsFieldversusnewgeographyinvestmentandexplorationcostsversussuccessratearekeydriversManybetsValuedrivenbypriceinvestmentstrategyandoperatingeffectiveness,ProductlineTSR,PlantCFROI,BUTSR&StationCFROI,ProjectIRRandrefineryCFROI,BUTSR&projectIRR,Metricsimplemented,按不同的事業(yè)部特性確定價值衡量指標(biāo),%GrossInvestment,CFROI,-5,0,5,10,20,Gas,Exploration,6.0,Chemicals,RefiningandMarketing,CostofCapital,15,各類投資項目的審核從劃分事業(yè)部起始,GrowthProjects,CFROIImprovementProjects,CFROIImprovementProjects:Assetmanagement,%ofGrossInvestment,%,AvgCFROIinPlan,Chemical1,Exploration,Gas1,Chemical2,Gas2,Gas3,Marketing,Refining,6.0,CostofCapital,Chemical3,Chemical4,而事業(yè)部進(jìn)一步按業(yè)務(wù)類型細(xì)化,石油開采事業(yè)部,市場零售,煉油,舉例：細(xì)分后的不同結(jié)果,LinktoStrategy,CleaningSuppliesHouseholdProductsChemicalAdditivesFertilizersSpecialtyPlastics,產(chǎn)品,市場,零售,工業(yè),商業(yè),政府,直銷,舉例(續(xù))：按銷售渠道進(jìn)一步細(xì)化市場零售事業(yè)部,LinktoStrategy,利潤表:銷售利潤管理費用利息折舊稅務(wù)資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表:應(yīng)收帳款存貨固定資產(chǎn)應(yīng)付帳款負(fù)債,可獲取可獲取按人力分配按負(fù)債額分配預(yù)定年限D(zhuǎn)ivisionrate按產(chǎn)品可獲取特殊區(qū)分按銷售成本按負(fù)債/權(quán)益,會計科目表,預(yù)計流程,而進(jìn)一步將資產(chǎn)分配到各市場單位可深入分析投資回報率,LinktoStrategy,10,20,30,40,50,60,70,80,90,100,-10,-5,0,5,10,15,20,25,30,商業(yè),直銷,零售,工業(yè),政府,CFROI%,%GrossInvestment,WACC,ConsolidatedCFROI,渠道獲利率分析揭示了渠道的強(qiáng)弱,LinktoStrategy,SampleStoresCFROI,Site,Keep,?,KeepFix,Close,Strong,Weak,Weak,Strong,Storesweregroupedfornextsteps,CostofCapital6.0%,Cons.CFROI17.0%,-5,0,5,10,15,20,25,30,Management,而零售渠道的進(jìn)一步細(xì)分可揭示各零售點的強(qiáng)弱,LinktoStrategy,Price/Order,OrderSize,0,1,2,3,4,5,6,0,10,20,30,40,50,60,70,80,90,100,Problemorders,而工業(yè)渠道注重于挖掘擴(kuò)展能使之盈利的顧客,LinktoStrategy,CommercialDirectSalesRetailIndustrialGovernment,CustomerGroup,Goodbusiness,butlimitedgrowthGenerallyignored,profitablebutunexcitingWellmanagedValuematureThoughttobeprofitableGoodrelationshipswithcustomersProblemareaNecessaryevil,PriorView,10%increaseingrowthdoublesvalue“Hiddenjewel”-re-addressedmarketingstrategyResultsbelowpeersinregionThroughputidentifiedaskeyvaluedriverSiteacquisitionmodelre-doneAssetintensitythekeyFocusonraisingCFROISignificantproblemarea,PostVBMView,MaintainAggressivegrowthplansSiteimprovementprogramNewstoreformatEvaluateaccountsindividuallyFocusonvaluablecustomersFocusonimprovingCFROIExpandintootherproductsPossibleexit,NextSteps,分析的結(jié)果引起顯著的戰(zhàn)略變化,LinktoStrategy,CorporateOffice,Internal“CapitalMarket”,BU1,BU2,BU3,ProjectLife,Outlay,ProjectLife,Outlay,CashFlow,CashFlow,Project,Project,InternalView,Investors,External“CapitalMarket”,Stock1,Stock2,Stock3,ExternalView,AccountingData,SharePrice,IncomeStatement,BalanceSheet,EPS,ROE,ROCE,CFROI,Growth,WACC,Fade,CFROI,CashFlow,GrossAssets,AssetLife,CFROI既用于外部投資，也由于內(nèi)部管理,CFROI,CFROI汲取了利潤表和資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表中的各類數(shù)據(jù)(1),CFROI汲取了利潤表和資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表中的各類數(shù)據(jù)(2),RevenueCostsOperatingProfitTax,ProfitandLossStatement,OperatingMargin,GrossMargin,ExpenseMargin,Sellingcosts,Admincosts,Overheadcosts,Othercosts,RawMaterialcosts,RefiningCosts,Overheadcosts,計劃驅(qū)動預(yù)算,Actual,Budget,Key,16.2%,16.5%,CFROI,OperatingMargin,AssetTurnover,22.1%,23.5%,GrossMargin,5.6%,5.0%,ExpenseMargin,65.2%,60.5%,RawMaterial,RefiningCosts,4.0%,3.5%,SellingCosts,AdminCosts,.87,.90,FixedAssets,12.0,14.0,WorkingCapital,8.0,10.0,Receivables,18.0,20.0,Inventory,75%,80%,UtilisationRate,10%,12%,Maintenance,0.73,8.7%,0.80,17.3%,16.7%,1.0%,1.0%,驅(qū)動預(yù)算三個主要方面,ProvidesafinancialprofileofthebusinessforcommunicationandanalysisNon-financialmanagersbroughtintovalueequationSummarymeasuresbrokendownintopartsforgreaterfocusGraphicallydisplaysacomparisonofperformancestandardsActualversusbudgetCurrentversushistoricSinopecperformanceversus“bestpractice”Relationshipscanbeusedfor“whatif?”analysis:,AFAFinancialInvestment,AeltusInvestmentMgmt.,Inc.,AlexBrownCapital,AlliedInvestmentAdvisors,AllianceCapitalMgmt.Corp.,AmericanCentury,AmericanCenturyInvestment,AtlanticCapitalMgmt.,AtlasCapital,L.P.,ArdenGroup,Inc.,The,Auchincloss&Lawrence,Inc.,BPAmerica,Inc.,BTRCapitalManagement,Inc.,Bahl&GaynorInvestmentCounsel,BankofAmerica,BayIsleFinancial,Boys,Arnold&Company,CambiarInvestmentInc.,CanyonPartnersInc.,CapitalResearchCo.,CapitalTechnology,CastleRockPartners,ChaseInvestmentCounselCorp.,Citibank,CliffordAssociates,ColumbiaManagementCo.,CompositeResearch&Management,Compu-ValInvestments,CrabbeHusonGroup,Inc.,Cramblit&Carney,Inc.,CreeksideInvestmentManagement,CrestwoodAssetManagement,DavisSelectedAdvisors,L.P.,DavisSkaggsInvestmentMgmt.,DeanWitterIntercapitalInc.,DelawareInvestmentAdvisors,Inc.,EagleGlobalAdvisors,EatonCorporation,EdwardJones&Co.,EnrightFinancialConsultants,EquinoxCapitalManagement,Eveans,Bash,Magrino&Klein,Inc.,FarmersInsuranceGroupofCompanies,FirstNationalBank,SWOhio,FlemingCapitalManagement,FrontierInvestmentManagementCo.,FrostNationalBank,GMG/SenecaCapitalManagement,GEMLandCompany,GeneralAccidentInsuranceCo.,GeneralMotorsInv.Mgmt.Corp.,GlobeFlexCapital,Goefen&Glossberg,Inc.,GreenleafCapitalManagement,GriesFinancialCorp.,Guardian,The,HGKAssetManagement,Inc.,Hotchkis&Wiley,HowardHughesMedicalInstitute,HughesInvestmentManagementCo.,HutchensInvestmentManagement,InvestmentAdvisors,Inc.,InvestmentCounselors,Inc.,Janus,JohnsonInvestmentCounsel,Inc.,Jurika&Voyles,Inc.,InvestmentMgmt.,KPMInvestmentManagement,Inc.,KalmarInvestments,Inc.,KanawhaCapitalManagement,KempnerCapitalManagement,Inc.,KennedyCapitalManagement,KunathKarrenRinne&Atkin,Inc.,LegacyCapitalManagement,LeggMasonCapitalMgmt.,Inc.,LeonardManagementGroup,LockheedMartinCorp,LoganCapitalManagement,Inc.,LutherKingCapitalMgmt.,LutheranChurch,The,McMurreyInvestmentAdvisors,Inc.,MercantileTrust,MeridianInvestmentCompany,MerrillLynchAssetManagement,MesirowFinancial,MississippiValleyAdvisors,MontagManagement,NationalCityBank,NikeSecuritiesL.P.,NoroianCapitalManagement,NorwestCapitalAdvisors,NWQInvestmentManagementCo.,OppenheimerCapital,OppenheimerFunds,Inc.,OppenheimerManagement,PacificAllianceCapital,ParnassusFund,The,PeregrineCapitalManagement,PhilipV.SwanAssociates,PioneeringManagementCorp.,PlazaInvestmentManagers,Inc.,PrudentialMutualFundInvestment,PSAFinancial,PutnamCompanies,Inc.,RCMCapitalManagement,LLC,RMInvestmentManagement,Inc.,RichardBlum&Associates,Roberts,Glore&Co.,RobertsonStephens&Co.,RogerH.Jenswold&Co.,Inc.,Roulston&Company,Inc.,SalomonBrothersAssetManagement,SandHillAdvisors,Inc.,SchneiderCapital,SCICapitalManagement,Scholtz&Company,SecuritiesManagement&Research,Seligman,J.W.&Co.,Inc.,SentinelTrustCo.,SMCCapitalManagement,SheffieldInvestmentManagement,Shields/Alliance,SignetAssetManagement,SmithBarneyInvestmentAdvisors,SorosFundManagement,SovereignAdvisors,Inc.,SpearsBenzakSalomon&Farrell,SperoSmithInvestmentAdvisers,Inc.,StaffordTrading,StandardPacificCapitalLLC,StarBank,Starbuck,Tisdale&Associates,StateofNewJersey,StateStreetResearch,SteinRow&Farnham,SterlingLtd.,StonebridgeCapitalManagementInc.,StoneleighInvestmentCounseling,StrongCapitalManagement,Inc.,Sturdivant&Company,Inc.,SummitInvestmentManagement,SunLifeofCanada,TigerAssetManagement,T.RowePrice,TexasCommerceBank,TRUSCOCapitalManagement,TrustCompanyoftheWest,USAAInvestmentManagementCo.,VARetirementSystem,W.D.Hutchinson&Associates,WashingtonInvestmentAdvisors,Weiss,Peck&GreerInvestments,WellingtonManagementCompany,WoodsideAssetManagement,FidelityInvestments,InvescoCapitalManagement.,在美國使用CFROI的財務(wù)機(jī)構(gòu),AeltusInvestmentManagement,Inc.AMPInvestmentsAustraliaAmericanExpressAssetManagementIntlAXASunLifeInvestManagementService*BOEAssetManagementBFGBankAGBankersTrustJapanBaringInternationalBritishAerospacePensionInvestmentCISCo-operativeInsuranceSocietyCSAssetManagementCapitalGroupCompanies,Inc.CitibankGlobalAssetManagementDEKADeutscheKapitalanlagegesellschaftDresdnerRCMCapitalManagementDresdnerRCMGlobalInvestorsAsia,Ltd.DeutscheMorganGrenfelAssetManagementEquitilinkFidelityInvestmentServicesFirstStateFundManagersLtd.,AustraliaFlemingInvestmentManagementGartmoreInvestmentManagement*GICGovernmentofSingaporeInvestmentGIMGeneralInvestmentManagementB.V