水利工程論文-譯文－華盛頓州Jones Creek（瓊斯溪谷）泥石流災(zāi)害及其風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)(二).doc

水利工程論文-譯文華盛頓州JonesCreek（瓊斯溪谷）泥石流災(zāi)害及其風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)(二)5討論運(yùn)用F/N曲線進(jìn)行定量的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)提供了一種可對(duì)比的可重復(fù)的泥石流風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析方法，從而為生命和財(cái)產(chǎn)免受泥石流災(zāi)害沖擊的保護(hù)措施提供客觀決策。實(shí)際上，公眾心理承受能力和政治環(huán)境能夠影響F/N風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析結(jié)果的解釋。美國(guó)政府對(duì)于2001年9月恐怖襲擊的反應(yīng)就是一個(gè)重要的事例，在此次事件中紐約市世貿(mào)中心雙塔的倒塌導(dǎo)致3000人喪生。過(guò)去的500年中美國(guó)本土死于恐怖活動(dòng)的人數(shù)大約為3200，每年6.4人。2億6千萬(wàn)美國(guó)公民現(xiàn)在生活在美國(guó)本土，美國(guó)個(gè)人在恐怖活動(dòng)中的年死亡概率為2.510-8，與之相比JonesCreek沖積扇個(gè)人死亡概率為1.410-2。美國(guó)恐怖襲擊的死亡危險(xiǎn)能夠歸為可接受的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，如果應(yīng)用于某一產(chǎn)業(yè)或基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的所有者，很可能做出決策，災(zāi)害不能夠辯解基金的花費(fèi)。這個(gè)結(jié)果與最近開(kāi)始的通過(guò)本土防衛(wèi)計(jì)劃(HomelandDefense)對(duì)美國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)外的恐怖襲擊作斗爭(zhēng)花費(fèi)的數(shù)十億美元形成鮮明對(duì)比。這個(gè)例子證實(shí)了即使F/N曲線作為風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的客觀衡量標(biāo)準(zhǔn)并支撐對(duì)于災(zāi)害反應(yīng)的決策，政治考慮和大眾的心理承受能力能夠壓倒科學(xué)的客觀性。6結(jié)論本文對(duì)JonesCreek沖擊扇上的泥石流災(zāi)害及其風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行了定量研究。通過(guò)測(cè)定有機(jī)質(zhì)年齡和外推沖積扇上的泥石流沉積物厚度確定了重現(xiàn)期為500年的泥石流頻率和規(guī)模。通過(guò)與泥石流體積建立相關(guān)關(guān)系確定了峰值流量。估算出設(shè)計(jì)泥石流的方量為90000m3，相應(yīng)峰值流量為320m3/s。接下來(lái)的泥石流建模工作，繪制年死亡概率和期望死亡人數(shù)關(guān)系曲線定量化災(zāi)害的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。F/N曲線表明現(xiàn)在存在的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)為現(xiàn)今西方社會(huì)所不能承受，并且應(yīng)采取減災(zāi)措施。盡管F/N曲線可用于客觀地評(píng)價(jià)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是否值得花費(fèi)基金，公眾心理或是政治環(huán)境能夠取代可接受的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的概念。盡管受到探槽的數(shù)量和深度以及放射性碳測(cè)年的限制，本研究證實(shí)了本次研究努力和方法能夠適用于評(píng)價(jià)由泥石流形成的沖積扇的災(zāi)害及其風(fēng)險(xiǎn)?？紤]到山區(qū)存在大量的有相似人口的沖積扇和泥石流可預(yù)報(bào)性差(與洪災(zāi)相對(duì))，發(fā)展災(zāi)害及其風(fēng)險(xiǎn)定量化和制圖的統(tǒng)一體系迫在眉睫。希望本文能夠?yàn)榇四繕?biāo)稍盡綿薄之力。參考文獻(xiàn)：ANCOLD.1997.GuidelinesfortheDesignofDamsforEarthquake.AustralianNationalCommitteeonLargeDams,Melbourne:98p.Benda,L.E.&Cundy,T.W.1990.Predictingdepositionofdebrisflowsinmountainchannels.CanadianGeotechnicalJournal27:409-417.Brown,E.H.1987.StructuralgeologyandaccretionaryhistoryofthenorthwestCascadessystem,WashingtonandBritishColumbia.GeologicalSocietyofAmericaBulletin99:201-214.Coho,C.&Burges,S.J.1994.Dam-breakfloodsinlowordermountainchannelsofthePacificNorthwest.WaterResourcesSeries,TechnicalReportNo.138.DepartmentofCivilEngineering,UniversityofWashington,Seattle:70p.deLaChapelle,J.2000.LateHoloceneaggradationalprocessesandratesforthreealluvialfans,CascadeFoothills,Washington.UnpublishedM.Sc.thesis.WesternWashingtonUniversity,Bellingham,Washington.Easterbrook,D.J.1971.GeologyandgeomorphologyofwesternWhatcomCounty,Washington.WesternWashingtonUniversity,Bellingham,Washington:68p.Fox,S.,DeChant,J.&Raines,M.1992.AlluvialFanHazardAreas.WhatcomCountyEnvironmentalResourcesReportSeries.WhatcomCountyPlanningDepartment,Bellingham,Washington:39p.Jakob,M.1996.MorphometricandgeotechnicalcontrolsondebrisflowfrequencyandmagnitudeinsouthwesternBritishColumbia.UnpublishedPh.D.thesis.UniversityofBritishColumbia,Vancouver,Canada.Jakob,M.&Jordan,P.2001.Designfloodsinmountainstreams-theneedforageomorphicapproach.CanadianJournalofCivilEngineering28(3):425-439.Johnson,S.Y.1984.Stratigraphy,ageandpaleogeographyoftheEoceneChuckanutFormation,northwestWashington.CanadianJournalofEarthSciences21:92-106.Jordan,P.1994.DebrisflowrheologyinthesouthernB.C.CoastMountains.UnpublishedPh.D.Thesis.TheUniversityofBritishColumbia,Vancouver,Canada.KerrWoodLeidalAssociates.2004.JonesCreekdebrisflowstudy.ReportforWhatcomCountyFloodControlZoneDistrict.Mizuyama,T.,Kobashi,S.&Ou,G.1992.Predictionofdebrisflowpeakdischarge,ProceedingsoftheInternationalSymposiumInterpraevent,Bern,Switzerland,4,99-108.Orme,A.R.1989.Thenatureandrateofalluvialfanaggradationinahumidtemperateenvironment,northwestWashington.PhysicalGeography10(2):131-146.Orme,A.R.1990.Recurrenceofdebrisproductionunderconiferousforest,CascadeFoothills,NorthwestUnitedStates.In:J.B.Thornes(ed),Vegetationanderosion:processandenvironments:67-84.NewYork:JohnWileyandSonsLtd.Raines,M.,Hungr,O.,Welch,K.F.&Willing.P.1996.WhatcomCountyLowerNooksackRivercomprehensivefloodhazardmanagementplan,alluvialfanhazards:recommendedassessmentmethodologyandregulatoryapproachfinaldraft.ReportforKCMInc.,Seattle,Washington:27p.Rickenmann,D.1999.Empiricalrelationshipsfordebrisflows.NaturalHazards19:47-77.Rickenmann,D.2005.Runoutpredictionmethods.In:M.Jakob&O.Hungr(eds),Debrisflowhazardsandrelatedphenomena.SpringerPraxis.Heidelberg.Scott,K.M.1985.Laharsandlahar-runoutflowsintheToutle-CowlitzRiversystem,MountSt.Helens,WashingtonOrigins,behavior,andsedimentology.UsGeologicalSurveyOpen-FileReport85-500:202p.Thorsen,G.W.1989.Splittingandsaggingmountains.Washing