2016-2045年新興科技趨勢(shì)報(bào)告（英文版）

APRIL2016

EmergingScienceandTechnologyTrends:2016-2045

ASynthesisofLeadingForecasts

OfficeoftheDeputyAssistantSecretaryoftheArmy(Research&Technology)

DISCLAIMER

ThisreportwaspreparedfortheDeputyAssistantSecretary

oftheArmy(Research&Technology)byFutureScout,LLC,a

strategyandanalyticsfirmspecializinginhelpingorganizationsunderstandemergingtrendsandhowtopreparestrategicallytothriveinthefaceofanuncertainfuture.Questionsregardingthepreparationofthisreportmaybedirectedto:

Dr.JasonAugustyn

President,FutureScoutLLC

(571)730-0992

jason@

Thisreportwaspreparedasanaccountofworksponsoredby

theUnitedStatesArmy.NeithertheUnitedStatesArmynorany

componentthereof,noranyofitscontractorsorsubcontractorsmakesanywarrantyfortheaccuracy,completeness,orany

thirdparty’suseoftheinformationcontainedherein.Referencehereintoanyspecificcommercialproduct,process,orservice

bytradename,trademark,manufacturer,orotherwise,doesnotnecessarilyconstituteorimplyitsendorsement,recommendation,orfavoringbytheUnitedStatesArmyoranycomponent

thereoforitscontractorsorsubcontractors.TheviewsandopinionsofauthorsexpressedhereindonotnecessarilystateorreflectofficialviewsorpoliciesoftheUnitedStatesArmy.

TABLEOFCONTENTS

EXECUTIVESUMMARY 1

BACKGROUND 2

EMERGINGS&TTRENDS 3

CROSS-CUTTINGTHEMES 9

CONCLUSION 12

APPENDIXA:BIBLIOGRAPHY 14

APPENDIXB:ANALYSISMETHODS 16

TRENDCARDS

1

8

ODASA(R&T)|EmergingS&TTrends:2016-2045

EXECUTIVESUMMARY

Thisisthethirdannualreportonemergingtrendsinscienceand

technology(S&T)publishedbytheDeputyAssistantSecretaryofthe

ArmyforResearchandTechnology(DASAR&T).Asinprioryears,the

reporthastwoprimaryobjectives.First,itisintendedtoinformleadersacrosstheU.S.Armyandstakeholdersinthejoint,interagency,and

internationalcommunityaboutS&Ttrendsthatarelikelytoinfluencethefutureoperatingenvironmentandshapewarfightingcapabilitiesoverthenext30years.Second,itisintendedtosparkstrategic

dialoguearoundthekindofS&TinvestmentstheArmyshouldmaketoensurethatourSoldiersmaintainovermatchinfutureoperations.

This2016versionoftheS&TStrategicTrendsreportsynthesizes

32S&Tforecaststhathavebeenpublishedoverthepastfiveyears

bygovernmentagenciesintheU.S.andabroad,industryleaders,

internationalinstitutions,andthinktanks.Theobjectivewastoidentifytrendsthataremostlikelytogeneraterevolutionaryordisruptive

changeofinteresttotheArmyoverthenext30years.Byconsolidatingmultipletrendanalysesintoasinglereferencedocument,thisreportaimstoprovideareadyreferenceforArmyleadershipasitconsiderstheimportantroleS&TwillplayinshapingthefutureofourArmy.

Analysisofthesourcedocumentsproduced690individualtrendsrelatedtoscienceandtechnology,aswellastrendsrelatedtobroadercontextualfactorsthatwillshapetheevolutionofS&Toverthecomingdecades.Fromthisdataset,24emergingscienceandtechnologytrendswereidentified:

?Roboticsand

autonomoussystems

?Additivemanufacturing

?Analytics

?Humanaugmentation

?Mobileandcloudcomputing

?Medicaladvances

?Cyber

?Energy

?Smartcities

?Internetofthings

?Foodandwatertechnology

?Quantumcomputing

?Socialempowerment

?Advanceddigital

?Blendedreality

?Technologyforclimatechange

?Advancedmaterials

?Novelweaponry

?Space

?Syntheticbiology

?Changingnatureofwork

?Privacy

?Education

?Transportationandlogistics

InadditiontotheseemergingS&Ttrends,thisreportdiscussessixbroadcontextualforcesthatarelikelytoshapetheevolutionofscienceandtechnologyoverthenext30years:urbanization,climatechange,resourceconstraints,shiftingdemographics,theglobalizationofinnovation,andtheriseofaglobalmiddleclass.

AswithpreviouseditionsoftheS&TStrategicTrendsreport,asetof

“trendcards”areincludedinthisreport.ThesecardsprovideadditionaldetailontheS&Ttrends,includingasynopsisofeachtrend,along

withsummariesofenablingS&Tdomains,recentdevelopmentsthatsignalhoweachtrendmightevolve,andahigh-levelconsideration

oftheimpactseachtrendmighthaveonsociety,politics,economics,theenvironment,anddefense.Thesetrendcardsprovideaconvenientreferencefortrendsthathavethemostpotentialforinfluencing

Armycapabilitiesandthefutureoperatingenvironment.

Scienceandtechnologyarepartofasystemofdrivingforcesthatwillchangemanyaspectsoftheworldoverthenext30years.

Whileitisimpossibletoaccuratelypredictthefutureindetail,thetrendsdiscussedinthisreportwillinfluencethecourseofglobalchangewithramificationsfortheU.S.Army.TheintentbehindtheanalysispresentedhereistoinformArmyleadershipaboutwherethefuturemightbeheaded,andbydoingso,supportstrategic

thinkingabouthowbesttopreparetheforcefortheroadahead.

PointofContact

Questionsregardingthisreportshouldbedirectedto:

AaronChan

(Acting)Director,TechnologyWargamingandManufacturingOfficeoftheDeputyAssistantSecretaryoftheArmy

(Research&Technology)

ASA(ALT)SAAL-ZT703-697-0427

aaron.m.chan2.civ@

ODASA(R&T)|EmergingS&TTrends:2016-20451

BACKGROUND

Thisisthethirdannualreportonemergingtrendsinscienceand

technology(S&T)publishedbytheDeputyAssistantSecretaryofthe

ArmyforResearchandTechnology(DASAR&T).Asinprioryears,the

reporthastwoprimaryobjectives.First,itisintendedtoinformleadersacrosstheU.S.Armyandstakeholdersinthejoint,interagency,and

internationalcommunityaboutS&TtrendsthatarelikelytoinfluencethefutureoperatingenvironmentandshapeArmycapabilitiesoverthenext30years.Second,itisintendedtosparkstrategicdialoguearoundthekindofS&TinvestmentstheArmyshouldmaketoensurethatourSoldiersmaintainovermatchinfutureoperations.ThisreportispartoftheDASAR&T’sbroaderTechnologyWargamingprogram,

whichseekstoprovidestrategicforesightresearchandanalysis

insupportofbothS&TinvestmentplanningandUnifiedQuest,theArmy’sannualfuturestudyprogramsponsoredbytheChiefofStaffandconductedbytheArmyCapabilitiesIntegrationCenter(ARCIC).

Westandonthecuspoftechnologicalrevolutionsonmultiplefronts,infieldsasdiverseasroboticsandsyntheticbiology.TechnologyhasbeencentraltotheAmericanwayofwarthroughoutthenation’shistory,1

anditissafetoassumethatscientificandtechnologicaladvancementswillremainanimportantfoundationforU.S.Armycapabilitiesoverthenext30yearsandbeyond.Atthesametime,theglobaleconomicandpoliticallandscapeisundergoingthemostprofoundrealignmentsincethefalloftheSovietUnion.TheUnitedStatesmilitaryhaslongreliedonanoverwhelmingadvantageinresearch,development,andinnovationthatisunlikelytopersistmuchlonger.AsChina,Russia,andother

nationsmodernizetheirmilitariesthroughinvestmentsinscienceandtechnology,itwillbecomeessentialfortheU.S.ArmytomakethemosteffectiveuseofS&Tinvestmentstostayaheadofemergingthreats.

Effectiveinvestmentstrategiesstartwithanunderstandingofemergingtrends.Therefore,theaimofthiseditionoftheS&TStrategicTrends

reportistoidentifythemajortrendsinscienceandtechnologythatarelikelytoinfluenceArmycapabilitiesandthefutureoperatingenvironmentoverthenext30years.Theapproachtowardidentifyingthesetrends

involvedacomprehensivereviewandsynthesisofopensourceforecastspublishedbygovernmentagenciesintheU.S.andabroad,industry

analysts,thinktanks,andacademicorganizations.TheseinstitutionsarealsograpplingwiththeinfluenceofS&Tonsocial,political,economic,

environmental,anddefense-relatedissues,andananalysisofthe

documentstheyproducerevealsanumberofcommonthemes.Rather

thanduplicatingthenumerousS&T-relatedforecastsconductedbytheU.S.NationalIntelligenceCouncil,U.K.MinistryofDefense,theMcKinseyGlobalInstitute,andothermajororganizations,thisreportseekstoleverage

theircollectiveinsightstoidentifytrendsthatwillimpacttheU.S.Army.

Inthatvein,acomprehensiveliteraturesearchwasconductedto

identifytrendforecastspublishedbyforeignanddomesticgovernmentagencies,industryanalysts,academicorganizations,andthinktanks.Atotalof32reportswereselectedbasedonthefollowingcriteria:

?Allofthereportshadtobetheproductofrigorousandwell-

documentedresearchconductedbyreputableorganizationswithatrackrecordofproducinghigh-qualitytrendanalysis.

?Allofthereportshadtohavebeenpublishedwithinthepast5years.

?AllofthereportshadtoaddressscienceandtechnologytrendsthatcouldinfluenceArmyoperationsandthefutureoperatingenvironmentoverthenext30years.

?Allofthereportshadtoaddressawiderangeofscienceand

technologytrends.Narrowforecastsrelatedtohighlyspecific

industriesortechnologydomainswerenotincludedinthisanalysis.

AppendixAprovidesacompletebibliographyofthesourcesthatwere

usedtoconductthissynthesisofemergingscienceandtechnologytrends.Overall,9sourceswerecarriedoverfromthe2015EmergingTrends

report,while23newsourceswereadded.Acontentanalysisofthese

documents(describedinAppendixB)identified690specifictrendsrelatedtoscienceandtechnologyaswellassocietal,economic,environmental,

andpoliticaltrendsthatarelikelytoshapethecontextinwhichscientificandtechnologicaldevelopmentswilloccur.Furtheranalysisofthetrenddatarevealed24commonscienceandtechnology“mega-trends”that

havethepotentialtoshapefutureArmyoperationsandthefuture

operatingenvironment.Theanalysisalsoidentifiedsixcross-cutting

contextualtrendsthatwillinfluencehowscienceandtechnologycouldevolve.DetailsontheanalysismethodologyarepresentedinAppendixB.

Theremainderofthisreportisdividedintotwoprimarysections.Thefirstsectionreviewsthescienceandtechnologytrendsthatwere

identifiedthroughthesynthesisofopensourceforecasts.Aswith

the2015Trendsreport,asetof“trendcards”hasbeenpreparedthat

summarizeseachofthesetrends.Thecards,whichareappendedto

theendofthisreport,provideabriefsynopsisofeachtrend,review

keyscientificandtechnicalenablersofthetrend,highlightrecent

developmentsthatsignalhoweachtrendmightevolveoverthecomingdecades,andreviewsomeoftheimpactsthateachtrendmighthaveonsociety,politics,theeconomy,theenvironment,andnationaldefense.Thesecondsectionofthereportreviewssixcontextualtrendsthat

appearedascommonthemesinmanyofthesourcedocuments.ThesetrendsspeaktobroaderundercurrentsthatwillshapethenexusamongS&T,sociopoliticalchange,andnationalsecuritythrough2045.

1.Mahnken,T.G.(2010).TechnologyandtheAmericanWayofWarSince1945.NY:ColumbiaUniversityPress.

ODASA(R&T)|EmergingS&TTrends:2016-20452

EMERGINGS&TTRENDS

Ananalysisofthesourcereportsidentified20coreS&Ttrendsthatwillinfluencetheworldoverthenext30years:

RoboticsandAutonomousSystems

By2045,robotsandautonomoussystemsarelikelytobecommonplace.Autonomousvehicleswillmaketransportationsaferandmoreefficient,whilepossiblyfuelingtheriseofthesharingeconomy.Robotswill

carefortheelderly,delivergroceries,harvestcrops,maintainpublic

infrastructure,andprovidemanyotherservicesthattoucheverydaylife.Intelligentsoftwareagents,or“bots”,willextractinsightsfromterabytesofdata,automatebusinessprocesses,andstepintocustomerservice,

teaching,andotherrolestraditionallyseenas“people-centric”.However,theriseofautonomoussystemscoulddisplacehundredsofmillionsoflaborandserviceworkers,creatingeconomicinstabilityandtherisk

ofsocialunrest.Networkedautonomoussystemswillalsobecomean

attractivetargetforadversariesandanewpriorityforcyberdefense.Theuseofrobotsinmilitaryoperationswillexpandasroboticsystemsgainmobility,dexterity,andintelligence,makingrobotseffectivepartners

onfuturebattlefields.Atthesametime,adversarieswilluserobotsandautonomoussystemsinwaysthatchallengeusethicallyandtactically.

AdditiveManufacturing

Additivemanufacturing(3Dprinting)hasbeenusedinindustryfor

over30years,mostlyasatoolforlimited-runprototyping.However,

therehasbeenremarkableinnovationin3Dprintingtechnologyover

thepasttenyears.Pricesfor3Dprintersarefalling,andtheavailabilityofopensourcetoolsand3Dmodelsfromonlinemarketplaceslike

Thingiversehasfosteredthegrowthofavibrantcommunityofhobbyist“makers”whoarepushingtheboundariesofwhatthistechnologycando.By2040,3Dprinterswillbeabletoprintobjectsthatincorporate

multiplematerials,electronics,batteries,andothercomponents.Peoplewillbeabletoprinttools,electronics,replacementparts,medical

devices,andotherproductsondemand,customizedtotheirwantsandneeds.Militarylogisticswilllikelybecomestreamlined,asequipment

andsupplieswillbeprinteddirectlyattheirpointofuse.Objectswill

becomeinformation,anddigitalpiracywillreplaceshoplifting.Terroristsandcriminalorganizationswillprintweapons,sensors,andother

equipmentusingrawmaterialsthatwillbealmostimpossibletotrack.

Analytics

In2015,theworldgenerated4.4zetabytesofdata(4.4trilliongigabytes),andthisfigureisexpectedtoroughlydoubleeverytwoyears.Thisfloodofdataholdsdeepinsightsintoconsumerbehavior,publichealth,climatechange,andarangeofothereconomic,social,andpoliticalchallenges.

However,while“BigData”hasbecomeabuzzword,lessthan10%ofdatageneratedeachyearevergetsanalyzed.Overthenext30yearsourabilitytomakebetteruseofmassive,dynamicdatasetswillimprove.Automatedbotswillcrawlunstructureddata,identifyingrelationshipsthatare

visualizedinimmersivevirtualdatascapes.Analyticswillspreadbeyond

theenterprise,aspeoplegaintheabilitytoapplybigdatatotheirpersonallives.Citizenswillhavetheabilitytousedatatoholdgovernmentsand

othermajorinstitutionsaccountable,leadingtotensionsoverdataaccess.Theriseofhyper-personalizedmarketing,governmentsurveillanceof

citizens’datatrails,andhighprofilecasesofdatalosscouldfuelgrowingconcernsoverdataownership.Potentialadversarieswillusedatathat

isstolen,purchasedoffdarknetworks,oraccessedfreelyfromopen

sourcestocompromisesecurityandchallengeU.S.defensecapabilities.

HumanAugmentation

Overthenext30years,technologywillallowustotranscendbiological

limitsonhumanpotential.Wearabledevicesconnectedthroughthe

InternetofThingswilldelivercontext-sensitiveinformationoverlaid

directlyontooursenses.Exoskeletonsandbrain-interfacedprosthetics

willmakeusstrongerandrestoremobilitytotheelderlyandinfirm.

Sensorsandcomputersembeddedincontactlensesandpermanent

implantswillletushearwhispersbehindwalls,giveusnaturalnightvision,andallowustoimmerseourselvesinvirtualandaugmentedrealities.

Nootropicdrugswillexpandourcognitiveabilitiesandtransformwork

andeducation.Ofcourse,augmentationtechnologywillcomeataprice,andthosewhocannotaffordtoupgradetheir“humanchassis”mightfindthemselvesunabletocompeteintheaugmentedeconomy.Networked

augmentationswillalsobeanappealingtargetforhackerslookingtocontroloverourverymindsandbodies.WhiletheU.S.ArmywillbenefitfromaugmentingitsSoldiers,theforcewillfaceadversarieswhoaresimilarlyenhanced,andanaugmentationarmsracecouldevolve.

ODASA(R&T)|EmergingS&TTrends:2016-20453

EMERGINGS&TTRENDS(CONT.)

Mobile&CloudComputing

Mobileandcloudcomputingaretransformingthewaypeopleinteract

withdata.IntheUnitedStates,anestimated30percentofWebbrowsingand40percentofsocialmediausearecurrentlydoneonmobiledevices.

By2030,75%oftheworld’spopulationwillhavemobileconnectivity

and60%shouldhavebroadbandaccess.Mobiledevicesarebecomingmorepowerfulandfeature-rich,withagrowingvarietyofembedded

sensorsthatmeasureweather,location,ambientlightandsound,

andbiometrics.Workingintandemwithmobiledataaccess,cloud

computingprovidesaccesstoalmostunlimitedcomputationalpower

thatscalesseamlesslywithoutrequiringmassiveinvestmentsinIT

infrastructure.Overthenext30years,cloud-basedmobilecomputing

hasthepotentialtotransformeverythingfromhealthcaretoeducation.Cellphoneswillmonitorvitalsignsandcommunicatedirectlywith

diagnosticapplications,peoplewilluseonlineeducationalportals

frommobiledevicestolearnnewskills,andappswillallowfarmers

indevelopingnationstoconnecttoreal-timeweatherdataandtoolsforoptimizingtheirharvests.Atthesametime,mobileandcloud

computingwillputsignificantpressureonnetworksecurity,reliability,andbandwidth,andbothconsumersandenterpriseswillhaveto

growmorecomfortablewithrelinquishingtheirdatatothecloud.

MedicalAdvances

Overthenext30years,medicinewillbetransformedbymultiple

technologicalbreakthroughs.Genomicswillgiverisetopersonalized

medicine,withtreatmentsforcancer,cardiovasculardisease,Alzheimer’s,andotherdiseasestailoredtoindividualgenetics.ArtificialorganswillbegrownfortransplantationfromDNAsamples,eliminatingwaittimesfor

life-savingtransplantsandtheriskoforganrejection.Prostheticswillbewireddirectlyintothenervoussystemandwillincorporatebiologically

basedsensorsthatprovideanear-normalsenseoftouch.Roboticfirst

respondersandtissuepreservationtechniquessuchascontrolled

hypothermiawillrevolutionizetraumacareandgreatlyextendthe“goldenhour”forwoundedSoldiers.Asscientistsunlockthekeystoaging,peoplewilllivelongerandstayhealthyandactivewellintowhattodaywe

consider“oldage”.Atthesametime,thecostofadvancedmedicalcarewillstressmanynationalhealthcaresystemsandtriggerrisinginequalityinaccesstolife-savingtreatments.Thecomingmedicalrevolutionwill

alsoenablepeopletoremainhealthyandproductivefordecadeslonger,amplifyingcompetitionforjobsbetweenolderandyoungerworkers

andcreatingadditionalstrainonsocialsafetynets.Drugresistantbacteriawillbecomeanurgentprobleminmanypartsoftheworld.

Cyber

Cyberdefenseishardlya

newtrend—warningsabouta“cyberPearlHarbor”

weremadeasearlyas

1991.However,overthe

next30yearstheriseof

theinternetofthingsandgrowinginterdependenceamongconnectedaspectsofeverydaylifewillbringcybersecuritytothe

forefront.Whilethenumberandscopeofcyberattacksisincreasing,mosthave

beentargetedagainstindividualconsumersorcorporationsandthe

damagefromindividualattacks,whileextensive,hasbeeneasilycontained.Ascars,homeappliances,powerplants,streetlights,andmillionsof

otherobjectsbecomenetworked,thepotentialforatrulydevastating

cyberattackwillgrow.Nations,corporations,andindividualswillbe

challengedtosecuretheirdatafromevermoreinsidiousattacks—manyofwhichmaygoundetectedforyears.Theworst-casescenarioenvisionsaformof“cybergeddon”,inwhichtheimmenseeconomicandsocialpoweroftheInternetcollapsesundertheweightofrelentlesscyberattacks.

Energy

Overthenext30yearstheglobaldemandforenergyisprojectedto

growby35%.Thedevelopmentofmethodslikefrackinganddirectionaldrillinghaveopenedvastnewreservesofoilandnaturalgas.These

technologieshaveup-endedglobaloilmarketsandturnedtheUnitedStatesintooneoftheworld’slargestfossilfuelproducers.Atthesametime,renewableenergysourcessuchassolarandwindareapproachingcost-paritywithfossilfuels.Inthepasttwodecades,thecostofpowerproducedbysolarcellshasdroppedfromnearly$8perwattofcapacitytolessthanone-tenthofthatamount.Nuclear,whilestillthesubject

ofintensepublicdebate,iscontinuingtogrow,withnewreactor

designedpromisinggreatersafetyandlessradioactivewaste.Whileadoptionofcleanerenergysourceswouldhelpcombatglobalclimatechange,newfrictionswillemergeoveraccesstorarematerialsusedinbatteries,solarcells,andotherlinchpinsoftheenergyrevolution.Thefadingoffossilfuelsalsocarriessignificantriskofeconomic

andsocialdestabilizationacrosstheMiddleEastandNorthAfrica,

presentingnewsecuritychallengesfortheUnitedStatesanditsallies.

ODASA(R&T)|EmergingS&TTrends:2016-20454

EMERGINGS&TTRENDS(CONT.)

SmartCities

By2045,65-70%oftheworld’spopulation—approximately6.4billion

people—willliveincities.Asurbanpopulationsswell,thenumberof

megacitieswith10millioninhabitantsormorewillgrow,from28in

2016to41by2030.Massmigrationtocitieswillputsignificantpressureonurbantransportationsystems,foodandwatersupplies,powerand

energyinfrastructure,sanitation,andpublicsafety.Informationand

communications(ICT)technologywillsupportthegrowthof“smart

cities”thatusedataandautomationtomakeurbancentersmore

efficientandsustainable.Distributedsensorsystemswillmonitorwaterandpowerusageandautomaticallybalancedistributionviasmartgrids.Networkedtrafficsystemsandautonomoustransportationoptionswilleasegridlock.Newmaterialsanddesigntechniqueswillbeusedtobuildsmartbuildingsthatmaximizetheefficiencyofheating,cooling,and

lighting.Rooftopsolarpanels,micro-windturbines,thermalpower,andotherrenewableenergysourceswillprovideclean,distributedpower

generation.Atthesametime,citiesthatcannotaffordtoinvestinthesetechnologies(orthatlackthepoliticalwilltodoso)couldturninto

congested,dirty,anddangerousflashpointsforinstabilityandconflict

InternetofThings

Accordingtoconservativeestimates,therewillbeover100billiondevicesconnectedtotheInternetby2045.Thiswillincludemobileandwearable

devices,appliances,medicaldevices,industrialsensors,securitycameras,cars,clothing,andothertechnologies.Allofthesedeviceswillproduceandsharevastamountsofinformationthatwillrevolutionizehowweworkand

live.PeoplewilluseinformationgeneratedthroughtheInternetofThings(IoT)tomakesmarterdecisionsandgaindeeperinsightintotheirown

livesandtheworldaroundthem.Atthesametime,web-connecteddeviceswillalsoautomate

manymonitoring,

management,andrepairtasksthatcurrently

requirehumanlabor.TheintersectionoftheIoT,analytics,andartificialintelligencewillcreateaglobalnetworkofsmartmachinesthatconductanenormousamount

ofcriticalbusinesswithnohumanintervention.WhiletheIoTwill

improvemanyaspects

ofeconomicefficiency,publicsafety,andpersonalproductivityitwill

alsoexacerbateconcernsovercybersecurityandprivacy.Criminal

organizations,terrorists,andadversarialnationstateswillusethe

IoTasanewvectorforattackingtheUnitedStatesanditsallies.The

immenseamountofdatageneratedthroughweb-connecteddeviceswillalsoenablegovernmentstoconductmasssurveillanceonpopulations,leadingtoongoingtensionsbetweendigitalfreedomandsecurity.

FoodandWaterTechnology

Overthenext30years,inadequateaccesstofoodandfreshwaterwill

becomeacrisispointinmanypartsoftheworld.Roughly25%ofcurrentfarmlandisalreadydegradedfromoverfarming,drought,andair/waterpollution.Underoptimisticforecasts,pricesforstaplegrainscouldriseby30%overthecomingdecades—increasesof100%arenotoutof

thequestionifclimatechange,demandpatterns,andfailedresource

managementcontinueoncurrenttrajectories.By2045,3.9billion

people—over40%oftheworld’spopulation—couldfacewaterstress.

Technologyoffersmanypotentialsolutionstofoodandwatercrises.

Desalination,micro-irrigation,waterreclamation,rainwaterharvesting,andothertechnologiescouldrelievepressureonfreshwatersupplies.

Geneticallymodifiedcropsandautomationcouldimprovecropyields

andallowfarmerstoproducemorenutritionfromlessland.Foodand

water,longtakenforgrantedinthedevelopedworld,willbecomeamajorfocusforinnovation,andcouldbecomeamajorflashpointforconflict.

QuantumComputing

Quantumcomputingusespropertiesofsubatomicparticleslike

superpositionandentanglementtoencodeandmanipulatedata.Whilethetechnologyhasbeendiscussedasatheoreticalpossibilityfordecades,

recentresearcheffortsacrossacademia,industry,andgovernment

labsarebeginningtodemonstratequantumsystemsthatmighthavepracticalapplicationsinthenext5-15years.Quantumcomputingcouldbealinchpintechnologythatrevolutionizesmultipleothertechnical

domainssuchasclimatemodeling,pharmaceuticalresearch,and

materialsscience.However,mostoftheinterestinquantumcomputingisrelatedtohowitwouldtransformcryptography.Aquantumcomputercouldcrackallcurrentencryptionmethods,andquantumcryptographycouldprovidethefirsttrulyunbreakableencodingtechnology.Recentresearchhasbeguntoovercomemanyofthetechnicalproblemsthat

havelimitedthedevelopmentofpracticalquantumcomputers.Whilereal-worldapplicationsofquantumcomputingmightnotbeseenuntilthemid-2040s,aninfluxofinvestmentbygovernmentsandindustrysignalsthatquantumcomputingmightbeapproachingatippingpoint.

ODASA(R&T)|EmergingS&TTrends:2016-20455

EMERGINGS&TTRENDS(CONT.)

SocialEmpowerment

Approximately65%ofAmericanadultsnowusesocialmedia—upfrom

7%in2005.2Socialmediahasundoubtedlychangedthewaypeople

connectonline,butoverthenext30years,socialtechnologieswill

becomeanengineforempoweringindividualstoshapetheirown

micro-cultures.Manytraditionalpowerstructureswillbeoverturned