2024年煤炭分析及2027年預(yù)測(cè)（英文版）

Coal

2024

Analysisandforecastto2027

INTERNATIONALENERGY

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Coal2024Abstract

Analysisandforecastto2027

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Abstract

Coalisoftenconsideredafuelofthepast,butglobalconsumptionofithasdoubledinthepastthreedecades.AttheheightoflockdownsrelatedtotheCovid-19pandemicin2020,demanddeclinedsignificantly.Yetthereboundfromthoselows,underpinnedbyhighgaspricesintheaftermathofRussia’sfull-scaleinvasionofUkraine,hasresultedinrecordglobalcoalproduction,consumption,tradeandcoal-firedpowergenerationinrecentyears.

Now,questionsabouttheforecastloom.Thatperiodalsosawaformidableexpansionofrenewablepowercapacity,whichisnowthreateningcoal’scentury-longsupremacyinelectricitygeneration.Atthesametime,acceleratingdemandforelectricityaroundtheworldcouldgivecoalanotherboost.

Manycompetingfactorsareatplay.Howquicklywillcoalusedeclineindevelopedeconomiesastheybecomemoreelectrified?WhenwillcoalusepeakinChina,theworld’slargestproducerandconsumer?HowwillIndiafuelitseconomicgrowth?Whenwillcoalbereplacedintheindustrialsector?Andwhatmightdifferentregionaltrajectoriesmeanonagloballevel?

Usingthelatestdata,Coal2024presentsrecenttrendsandathree-yearforecastforcoaldemand,supplyandtradebygradeandbyregion.Itisessentialreadingforanyoneinterestedinunderstandingglobalenergy.

Coal2024Acknowledgements,contributorsandcredits

Analysisandforecastto2027

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Acknowledgements,contributorsandcredits

ThisInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA)publicationhasbeenpreparedbytheGas,CoalandPowerMarketsDivision(GCP),headedbyDennisHesseling,whoprovidedusefulsuggestionsandcommentsthroughouttheprocess.KeisukeSadamori,DirectorofEnergyMarketsandSecurity,providedessentialguidance.CarlosFernándezAlvarezledandco-ordinatedtheanalysis.HendrikDiers,JulianKeutzandCarlosFernándezAlvarezweretheauthorsofthereport.

OtherIEAcolleaguesprovidedimportantcontributions,includingHeymiBahar,StephanieBouckaert,Eren?am,MarcCasanovas,JoelCouse,LauraCozzi,CaroleEtienne,MathildeFajardy,VíctorGarcíaTapia,TimGould,TimurGül,CiaránHealy,MiloszKarpinski,MartinKüppers,YihongLiu,AkosLosz,GergelyMolnár,ArnauRísquezMartínandFrederickRitter.

TimelyandcomprehensivedatafromtheEnergyDataCentrewerefundamentaltothereport.TaylorMorrisonandNicolaDraguiprovidedinvaluablesupportduringtheprocess.ThanksalsogototheIEAChinadesk,particularlyRebeccaMcKimm,YangBiqingandChenJiayifortheirresearchonChina.

TheIEACommunicationandDigitalOffice(CDO)providedproductionandlaunchsupport.ParticularthanksgotoJethroMullen,actingHeadofCDO,andhisteam:AstridDummond,IsabelleNonain-SemelinandLivGaunt.JustinFrench-Brookseditedthereport.

OurgratitudegoestotheInstituteofEnergyEconomicsattheUniversityofCologne(EWI)forsharingtheirextensivecoalexpertiseandmodellinginsights.

CRUprovidedinvaluabledataandinformationforthisreport.ThankstoGlenKurokawaforhissupportandsuggestions.

OurgratitudegoestotheIEACoalIndustryAdvisoryBoard(CIAB)foritssupport.

Specialthanksgototheinternationalexpertswhoprovidedinputduringtheprocessand/orreviewedthedraftofthereport.Theyinclude:KevinBall(WhitehavenCoal),StevenBrown(MineralsCouncilofAustralia),MickBuffier(Glencore),MichaelCaravaggio(EPRI),AlexandreClaude(DryBulk),NikkiFisher(ThungelaResources),PeterMorris(MineralsCouncilofAustralia),DmitryPopov(Oldendorff),BrianRicketts(Euracoal),HansWilhelmSchiffer(RWE),PaulSimons(YaleUniversity),RodolfoShimatsu(Telf)andAkiraYabumoto(J-POWER).

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Theindividualsandorganisationsthatcontributedtothisreportarenotresponsibleforanyopinionorjudgementitcontains.AnyerrororomissionisthesoleresponsibilityoftheIEA.

Forquestionsandcomments,pleasecontactCarlosFernándezAlvarez(carlos.fernandezalvarez@).

Coal2024Tableofcontents

Analysisandforecastto2027

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Tableofcontents

Executivesummary 7

Demand 11

Supply 40

Trade 58

Pricesandcosts 74

Updateoninvestmentandcoalabatement 98

Generalannex 111

Coal2024Executivesummary

Analysisandforecastto2027

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Executivesummary

Globalcoaldemandissettoreachanewall-timehighin2024…

Globalcoaldemandisexpectedtogrowby1%in2024toanall-timehighof8.77billiontonnes(Bt).Thisrepresentsaconsiderableslowdowningrowthfrompreviousyears:globalcoalconsumptionroseby7.7%in2021asitreboundedfromtheCovidshocktheyearbefore,by4.7%in2022andby2.4%in2023.Althoughindustrialconsumptionalsoincreasedoverthatperiod,thepowersectorhasbeenthemaindriverofcoaldemandgrowth,withelectricitygenerationfromcoalsettoreachanall-timehighof10700terawatt-hours(TWh)in2024.

Attheregionallevel,coaldemandinChinaisexpectedtogrowby1%in2024toreach4.9Bt,anotherrecord.Indiaispoisedtoseedemandgrowthofover5%to1.3Bt,alevelthatonlyChinahasreachedpreviously.IntheEuropeanUnionandtheUnitedStates,coaldemandcontinuestofall,butatasignificantlyslowerpace.Itisontracktodeclineby12%and5%respectivelythisyear,comparedwith23%and17%in2023.

…butdemandcouldplateauthrough2027,dependingonChina

Afterhavinggrownbymorethan1.2billiontonnessince2020,globalcoaldemandissettoplateauinthenextthreeyears,reachingaround8.87billiontonnesby2027.Giventheslowprogressofdeployingcarboncapture,utilisationandstorage(CCUS)technologiesinthesector,carbondioxideemissionsfromcoalarenotexpectedtodeclineinthatperiod,basedontoday’spolicysettingsandmarkettrends.Whilecoaldemandinadvancedeconomiescontinuestoshrink,thisdeclineisexpectedtobeoffsetbygrowthinafewemerginganddevelopingeconomies,suchasIndia,IndonesiaandVietNam,wheretheadditionalenergydemandassociatedwitheconomicgrowthissettobemetwithavarietyofsources,includingcoal.Despiteincreasingrenewableelectricitygeneration,Indiaisexpectedtoseethelargestincreaseincoaluseinthecomingyears,drivenbyconsumptionfromthepowersectorandindustry.Still,ashasbeenthecasefor25years,China,whichconsumes30%morecoalthantherestoftheworldputtogether,willcontinuetodefineglobaltrends.

FastergrowthinelectricityuseinChinaispushingupcoaldemandthere

AthirdofallthecoalconsumedworldwideisburnedinpowerplantsinChina,makingthecountry’selectricitysectorthemaindriverofglobalcoalmarkets.In2024,Chinahasmaintaineditsfocusondiversifyingitspowersources,continuingtobuildoutnuclearplantsandacceleratingitsmassiveexpansionofsolarPVand

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windcapacity.Thecountry’shydrosectoralsoexperiencedareboundafterseveralyearsofunderperformance.However,electricitydemandinChinaisincreasingstrongly,growingatafasterrateonaveragethanGDPsince2021.TwomajordriversareunderpinningpowerdemandgrowthinChina:theelectrificationofservicespreviouslyprovidedbyotherfuels,suchasmobilityandindustrialheat,andemergingindustriessuchasdatacentresandAI.

Weather-drivenfluctuationsovershadowstructuralchangesintheshortterm

Inthisreport’sforecast,theyear-to-yearchangesinglobalcoaldemandthrough2027arerelativelysmall,cominginatlessthan50milliontonnes(Mt).InIndia,thecountrypoisedtoseethelargestincreaseincoaldemand,itrisesbyjustover100Mtthrough2027.IntheEuropeanUnion,coaldemanddeclinesby68Mtinthesameperiod.InChina,analysisofpotentialvariationincoaldemandbasedonweatherconditionsandtheirimpactonrenewablegenerationindicatesdemandcouldbeabout140Mthigherorlowerthanthebasecaseduringtheforecastperiod.Thisunderscoresthatweathervariationsareincreasinglydefiningshort-termtrends,evenasstructuralchangestakeplaceatboththeregionalandgloballevel.GivenChina’sdominantroleinworldcoalmarkets,weathervariationstherecanbeparticularlyimpactful–bothatthecountrylevelandthegloballevel.

Coaldemandissettocontinuetoshrinkinmostadvancedeconomiesthrough2027

Coaldemandinmostadvancedeconomiespeakedafewyearsagoandisfalling,althoughthetrajectorycanvarydependingontheregionorcountry.InEuropeandNorthAmerica,wherecoalusehasdroppedoverthepastdecade,therateofdeclineisnowslowing.Demandforpowerfromtheelectricitysectorcouldfurtherslowdeclinesintheseregionsintheyearsahead.Evenso,by2025,thecoalconsumedintheEuropeanUnionandtheUnitedStatescombinedwillbelessthanhalftheamountusedinIndia.TheclosureofthelastcoalpowerplantintheUnitedKingdominSeptember2024wasanimportantsymbolicmomentforacountrywherecoalhadpoweredtheindustrialrevolution.

Globalcoalproductionisalsoexpectedtoflattenthrough2027

In2024,globalcoalproductionisexpectedtoreachanall-timehigh,surpassing9Btforthefirsttime.Thethreelargestproducers–China,IndiaandIndonesia–reachednewrecordsforoutput.China,whichaccountsforhalfofglobalproduction,issettoseeoutputgrowby1%in2024,despitedeclinesinthefirsthalfofthisyearamidasafetycampaigninShanxi,thelargestproducingprovince.InIndia,thegovernmentisincentivisingproductionfrompubliccompanies,mainlyCoalIndia,aswellascaptiveandcommercialproducers.Asaresult,outputissettorisebyover7%.Indonesianproducers,whichbenefitedfromstrongdomestic

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coaldemandandsustaineddemandfrominternationalmarkets,areexpectedtosurpass800Mtforthefirsttime.

Lookingahead,productioninChinaissettoease,givenabundantstocksandalackofsubstantialdemandgrowth.Bycontrast,productioninIndiaisexpectedtocontinuetogrow,spurredbyrobustcoaldemandandgovernmentpoliciestoreduceimports.InIndonesia,despitecontinuedstrongdomesticdemand,productionispoisedtoshrinkduetoweakerinternationalmarketsforthermalcoal.Overall,weexpectannualglobalcoalproductionofcloseto9Btthrough2027.Australiaissettobecomethefourthlargestproducerby2027,surpassingtheUnitedStatesandRussia.ProducersinRussiaarestrugglingamidinternationalsanctions,lowprofitabilityandinfrastructurebottlenecks.

Tradevolumessettoreachall-timehighin2024beforereceding

Internationaltradeofcoalbyvolumeisexpectedtoreachanewall-timehighin2024,at1.55Bt.Allcategoriesareoncoursetosetnewrecordsintermsofbothgrowthandoverallvolume,namelyseabornethermalcoal,totalthermalcoal,seabornemetallurgicalcoalandtotalmetallurgicalcoal.InChina,despiteabundantstocksandlukewarmdemand,importsareexpectedtosurpass500Mtin2024.InIndia,strongdemandhaskeptimportsatsimilarlevelsasin2023,despitethecountry’sproductionpush.VietNamhassurpassedChineseTaipeiastheworld’sfifthlargestimporter.Lookingahead,inlightofthesetrends,ourmodelsshowtradevolumesshrinking,withtradeinthermalcoalseeingthebiggestdecline.Thatsaid,Chineseimportshaverepeatedlycomeinhigherthanexpectedinrecentyears.

ReshuffleoftradeflowscontinuesasshifttoAsiaaccelerates

MorethantwoyearsaftertheEuropeanUnionbannedRussiancoalimportsandRussianproducersshiftedexportseastwards,thereshuffleoftradeflowscontinues.ItisdifficulttoknowtheeffectoftheextensionofUSsanctionstosomeRussianproducers,whicharealsograpplingwithrailbottleneckstoeasternmarkets,higherrailtariffs,exportduties,andnewimportdutiesinsomecountriessuchasChina.OtherfactorsreshapingtradeflowsincludearesumptionofAustralianexportsintoChinaandsecurityriskstosomeshippingroutes.Ontopofthat,themarket’scentreofgravitycontinuestoshiftincreasinglytoAsiaamidthecollapseofdemandinEurope.Indonesiahasprovenagaintobethemostflexibleexporter.Afterrisingabove500Mtin2023,Indonesianexportsareexpectedtosurpass550Mtin2024.MongoliahasbecomethesecondlargestmetallurgicalcoalexporterafterAustralia,althoughitsroleinglobaltradeislimited,sinceallofitsexportsgotoChina.

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Coalremainsprofitableaspricesstayabovepre-crisislevels

Thepandemicandassociateddropindemandforcoalsentpricesplungingin2020,buttheysubsequentlyreboundedtorecordhighs–firstinOctober2021,andthenagainafterRussia’sinvasionofUkrainein2022.Priceshaverecededsincethen,buttheyarestill50%higherthantheaverageduringthe2017-19period.AsofNovember2024,thepriceofimportedthermalcoalinEuropewasaroundUSD120pertonne,comparedwithanaverageofUSD80pertonnein2017-19.ForAustralianthermalcoal,thepricetodayisaroundUSD140pertonne,versusUSD90onaverageattheendofthelastdecade.

Coalexportersaremakingsolidprofitsoverall.Russianproducersarethemainexception.Afterearningsubstantialprofitsin2022,andtoalesserextentin2023,manyproducershavetippedintolossesbecauseofincreasedrailtariffsandotherduties,whichcomeontopofthediscountatwhichtheymustselltheircoalduetoWesternsanctions.

Theownershipofexport-orientedcoalminingcapacityischanging

Achangeintheownershipofexport-orientedminescompetingininternationalmarketsisobservableinthelastfewyears.Ononehand,somecompanieswhichwanttoreducetheircarbonfootprintorimprovetheirEnvironmental,SocialandGovernance(ESG)credentialsaresellingcoalassetsinordertofocusonothercommodities.Ontheotherhand,anumberofcompanieswhichhavegeneratedsignificantcashduetolargeprofitssince2021aredoublingdownoncoal.ArecentmajormovewastheacquisitionofElkValleyResourcesbyGlencore,thelargestthermalcoalexporter,whichalsobecameamajormetallurgicalcoalexporteraftertheacquisition.

Coal2024Demand

Analysisandforecastto2027

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Demand

Afterasmallincreasein2024toanall-timehigh,globalcoaldemandissettoflattenthroughto2027

In2023globalcoaldemandincreasedtoarecord8687Mt,markinga2.5%y-o-yincrease.Thisrisewasprimarilydrivenbycountriesheavilyreliantoncoal,suchasChinaandIndia.Additionally,lowhydropoweroutputfuelledthedemandforcoalinpowergeneration,whichclimbedby2.5%to5855Mt.Non-powercoalusegrewby2.3%,reaching2833Mt.

China,theworld’slargestcoalconsumer,accountedforover56%ofglobaldemandin2023.Thecountry’scoalconsumptionincreasedby6%to4883Mt,withthepowersectoraccountingfor63%ofitscoaldemand.India,thesecond-largestconsumer,sawa10%riseincoaldemand,reachingatotalof1245Mt.

For2024globalcoaldemandisprojectedtogrowby1.0%,settinganewall-timehighof8771Mt.TheslowercoaldemandgrowthinAsia,partiallyoffsetbyfallingdemandinadvancedeconomies,resultsinslowerglobalgrowth.Globalcoaldemandcontinuesitsshifteastward,withChina,IndiaandASEANcountriesexpectedtoconsumethree-quartersoftotaldemandin2024,asignificantincreasefromaround35%atthestartofthecentury.

Inabsoluteterms,themostsignificantincreasesin2024areanticipatedtohavebeeninIndia(up70Mt,or6%)andChina(up56Mt,or1.1%),togetherwithotherslikeIndonesiaandVietNam.Conversely,thelargestdeclinesareexpectedtohavetakenplaceintheEuropeanUnion(down42Mt,or12%)andtheUnitedStates(down18Mt,or5%),withtheelectricitygeneratingsectorthemaindriver.ForecastsfortheRussianFederation(hereafter“Russia”),thefourth-largestcoalconsumer,remainuncertainduetotheongoingwarinUkraine,whichalsomakesUkraine’scoaloutlookunclear.

Forourforecastperiodupto2027weanticipatecoaldemandtomoveinanarrowrange.WhilegrowthinIndiaandASEANcountriescounterbalancedeclinesintheEuropeanUnionandtheUnitedStates,Chinacontinuestobethemajordeterminantofglobalcoaldemand.Intheelectricitysector,despitetheformidableexpansionofrenewables,strongelectricitydemandisexpectedtokeepcoal-firedpowergenerationatsimilarlevelsto2024.

Coal2024Demand

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Globalcoalconsumption,2002-2027

Mt

10

9

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

0

200220072012201720222027

aChinaaIndiaaASEANaUnitedStates

EuropeanUnionRestofworldForecast

IEA.CCBY4.0.

Changeinglobalcoalconsumption,2023-2027

Mt

8873

76

8771

35

8687

107

68

66

56

37

8900

8850

8800

8750

8700

8650

8600

42

70

42

2023

-+2024-+2027

China

aIndiaaASEANaUnitedStates

EuropeanUnion

aRestofworldSForecast

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Coal-firedpowergenerationreachesanall-timehighin2024,thenplateaus

In2023globalcoal-firedelectricitygenerationgrewby1.7%,or175TWh,correspondingto192Mtofcoaldemandinthepowersector.

1

Despitesignificantgrowthinrenewablegenerationin2023(up426TWh),coal-firedpowergenerationremainedthelargestsourceofelectricity,accountingforover35%ofthetotal.Regionally,theUnitedStates(down169TWh)andtheEuropeanUnion(down133TWh)recordedthebiggestdeclinesincoal-firedpowergenerationin2023,althoughthiswasmorethanoffsetbygainsinChina(up347TWh)andIndia(up125TWh).Globally,totalpowergenerationgrewby2.4%,reachingatotalof29898TWh.

Globalelectricitygenerationisexpectedtohavegrownby4.4%in2024,reaching31099TWh.ChinaandIndiahaveonceagainledthegrowthinelectricitydemand.WhileChinaisexpectedtohavemetthisincreaseprimarilythroughtheexpansionofrenewables,Indiaisforecasttohavereliedmostlyoncoalforitsadditionalelectricityduetolowhydropoweravailabilityinthefirsthalfoftheyear.Despitetheexpansionofrenewables,coal-firedpowergenerationinChinaisexpectedtorecordmoderategrowthof1.7%for2024.Globalcoal-firedpowergenerationisprojectedtohavegrownby1.0%,or104TWh.

Changeinglobalelectricitygenerationbysource,2023-2027

TWh

35000

34000

33000

32000

31000

30000

34559

31099

29814

29000

2023-+2024-+2027

回Coal回Gas回Nuclear回Renewables回Others回Forecast

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1Therateofgrowthincoalconsumptioninthepowersectordiffersfromthechangeinelectricitygenerationforanumberofreasons.First,differentplantsconsumecoalofdifferentcalorificvalue(CV)atdifferentefficiencies.Second,aroundone-quarterofcoalplantsarecombinedheatandpower(CHP)and,therefore,heatprovisionalsoplaysaroleincoaldemand.Third,coal-firedpowergenerationincludespowergeneratedbycoalby-productssuchasmetallurgicalgasesfromsteelworks,andthisisnotincludedinthecoaldemandforpowergeneration.

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Coal2024Demand

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Forourforecastperiodthroughto2027,weexpectglobalcoaldemandforpowergenerationtoremainstableataround6000Mt.Therapiddeploymentoflow-costsolarPVbolsterstheriseinrenewablepowergeneration.Nuclearpowerandgas-firedgenerationarealsoprojectedtoseemoderategrowth,particularlyinChinaandIndia.Theanticipatedgrowthinrenewableenergysources,nuclearpowerandnaturalgasisexpectedtoalignwiththeprojectedincreaseinelectricitydemand.Consequently,nodeclineincoal-firedpowergenerationisforeseen.

Giventhesefactors,weanticipatecoal-firedpowergenerationtoremainatlevelssimilarto2023duringthe2024-2027period.Nevertheless,bythattime,coal’sshareoftheglobalelectricitymixisexpectedtodroptojustover31%,thelowestlevelrecordedbytheIEA.

Noincreaseinnon-powerthermalcoalandligniteexpectedthroughto2027

Beyondpowergeneration,thermalcoalandligniteareusedinvariousactivities,suchascementmanufacturingandprovidingheatforindustrialandresidentialpurposes.Fortheanalysisinthisreport,heatsuppliedbyCHPunitsorcentraldistrictheatingisincludedinthepowersector.In2023non-powerthermalcoalandligniteconsumptionincreasedby2.5%,reaching1736Mt.Thisaccountedfor23%oftotalthermalcoalandligniteconsumptionforthatyear.

ThemajorityofthisincreasewasdrivenbyChina,whereconsumptionroseto1094Mt,withcontinuousgrowthinthecoalconversionsector,whichaimstoreduceoilandgasimportdependence.WhilestillafractionofChina’slevelofconsumption,ASEANcountriessawahigherpercentageincrease,withconsumptionrisingby13%from76Mtto87Mt.ThisexceptionalgrowthwasprimarilydrivenbyIndonesia,whichsawanincreaseof9Mt.Indonesiaisstrategicallyboostingitsnickelproductiontomeettheglobaldemandforthiscriticalmineralusedinbatterymanufacturing.SincemostIndonesiannickelisproducedusingtherotarykiln-electricfurnace(RKEF)process,whichreliesoncoalasbothareductantandanenergysource,nickelproductionisdrivingthegrowthofthermalcoalconsumptioninIndonesia.Additionally,coalusedforelectricityintheprocess(includedinthepowersector)andtheuseofcoke(includedinthemetcoaldemand)furthercontributetothecarbonfootprintofnickelproduction.

Weanticipateaslightincreaseintheaggregatednon-poweruseofthermalcoalandlignitein2024,drivenbygainsinIndia,whichareexpectedtooffsetdeclinesinotherAsiancountriesandtheEuropeanUnion.InChina,effortstoreducecoalconsumptionforresidentialheatingandsmallindustry,alongwithweakinfrastructureinvestmentaffectingcementdemand,arelikelytodampennon-powercoalconsumption.However,thecoalconversionsectorcontinuestoshow

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significantpotentialforcoaluse.Overall,weexpectapronounceddeclineof58MtinChina’sthermalnon-powercoaldemandthroughtotheendof2027.

India’snon-powerthermalcoalandligniteconsumptionisprojectedtocontinueitsupwardtrend,withindustrialactivityexpectedtogrowbynearly6%annuallyoverthenextthreeyears.WeestimateIndia'sconsumptionincreasingby44Mtby2027,andanadditional10MtexpectedfromASEANcountries.

Insummary,weprojectglobalconsumptionofthermalcoalandlignitefornon-powerpurposestoremainstable,withaslightdeclineof4Mt,or0.2%,by2027.

Changeinthermalcoalandligniteconsumptionfornon-powerpurposesbyregion,2022-2027

Mt

80

60

40

20

0

-20

-40

-60

-80

2022-20232023-20242024-2027

aRestofworldASEAN

aIndiaChina

EuropeanUnion

OtherAsia因Forecast

World

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