中國煙草經(jīng)濟分析-復旦大學課程

2024/12/1中醫(yī)大07衛(wèi)管1

AnalysisonChineseTobaccoEconomymid-termreviewcopingstrategyspecificmeasuresfeasibilityanalysisTobaccoconsumptionontheactualimpactofthenationaleconomyMarketfailurenegativeexternalityNaturalmonopolygoodsLackofflexibility2024/12/1中醫(yī)大07衛(wèi)管22010-5-313中醫(yī)大07衛(wèi)管3TheimpactoftobaccoconsumptionExpandtheincomegapIncreasetheeconomiclossesMedicalcostsHumanCapitalTotaleconomyDoharmtopeople'shealthandpublichealthConclusionTheeffectoftobaccoindustryonthenationaleconomyisnegative,themoreprospersofthetobaccoindustry,themoredamagewillbedonetothenationaleconomy.2024/12/1中醫(yī)大07衛(wèi)管4TaxadjustmentDemandreductionSmokingcontrolconfigurationtobaccocopingstrategy---configurationtobaccoThereformdirection:2024/12/1中醫(yī)大07衛(wèi)管5HealtheducationSmokingcontrolmeasuresDirectcontrolTaxadjustmentcopingstrategy---configurationtobacco2024/12/1中醫(yī)大07衛(wèi)管6HealtheducationLimitcigaretteadvertisingandpromotionalactivitiesSmokingcontrolmeasuresBansmokinginpublicplacesandworksiteForbiddentosellcigarettestominorsDirectcontrolReformoftobaccomonopolysystemTaxadjustmentLevytobaccosurtaxDiscussionThecostofcontrol—benifitanalysisThetobaccotaxanalysis2024/12/1中醫(yī)大07衛(wèi)管7Thecostofcontrol—benifitanalysisThecostofcontrol——reduceeconomiccosts、increaseopportunitycost

ReducecigarettesalesVSSlashjobs?

increasethepriceofcigarettesVSincreasesmuggledcigarettes?Thebenefitofcontrol——Economicperformanceovertheeconomiccosts

significantlyfiredanger、occupationalhazard、healthinsurance…2024/12/1中醫(yī)大07衛(wèi)管8IncreasetobaccotaxanalysisDemandreductionoftobaccoTobaccoconsumptionreductionofsocialharmIncreasethequotaoftax2024/12/1中醫(yī)大07衛(wèi)管9Bansmuggledcigarettes!Demandreductionoftobacco一包煙提價10%預計平均可使香煙需求量在高收入國家減少約4%,而在中低收入國家可減少約8%,因為較低的收入往往使人們對價格變化更加敏感[1]。兒童和青少年比年長的成人對提價更加敏感,因此這一干預措施將對他們產(chǎn)生重大影響[2]。2024/12/1中醫(yī)大07衛(wèi)管10[1]Buck,David,C.Godfrey,M.Raw,andM.Sutton.1995.TobaccoandJobs.York,U.K.:SocietyfortheStudyofAddictionandtheCentreforHealthEconomics,UniversityofYork.[2]Chaloupka,F.J.,andH.wechsler.1997.“Price,TobaccoControlPoliciesandSmokingAmongYoungAdults.”JournalofHealthEconomics16(3):359-73.FeasibilityanalysisTheeffectofbansmokingindoorTheeffectofbanteenagersmokingBancigaretteadvertisingandpromotionalactivitiesTheeffectoftheadvertisementagainsttobaccoconsumptionIncreasetheeffectoftobaccotax2024/12/1中醫(yī)大07衛(wèi)管111.1Theeffectofbansmokingindoor二手煙患者自主選擇權(quán)回歸

室內(nèi)吸煙率及吸煙量大幅降低建議：望出臺相關法律文件加以支撐，不具法律強制性的《公共場所及室內(nèi)禁煙條例》無法有效約束煙民！2024/12/1中醫(yī)大07衛(wèi)管121.2Theeffectofbanteenagersmoking限制了青少年對香煙的可及性，增加了吸煙的成本，控制了吸煙人數(shù)。關于禁止青少年吸煙效果的研究表明:只有這些措施及相關的法律、法規(guī)被全面、徹底地執(zhí)行時,才能取得顯著的效果。建議:加大執(zhí)法力度（監(jiān)管、行政處罰）2024/12/1中醫(yī)大07衛(wèi)管131.3BancigaretteadvertisingVS

Advertisementagainsttobacco全面禁止煙草廣告可以有效地降低煙草的消費反煙廣告利用媒體提高大眾對吸煙危害的認知,也可以明顯地降低煙草消費。建議：內(nèi)外一致！2024/12/1中醫(yī)大07衛(wèi)管141.3BancigaretteadvertisingVS

AdvertisementagainsttobaccoSaffer和Chaloupa的研究表明增加15%的反煙廣告時間可以使煙草的消費量降低約4%。一些區(qū)域性的反煙廣告的效果分析如美國的California、Massachusetts以及芬蘭、希臘、英國、挪威、以色列、奧地利、加拿大等國的研究均表明反煙廣告可以降低煙草消費[3]。[3]HenrySaffer:Tobaccoadvertisingandpromotion.TobaccoControlinDevelopingCountries.OxfordPress.2024/12/1中醫(yī)大07衛(wèi)管151.4Increasetheeffectoftobaccotax中國(包括臺灣)、土耳其、巴布亞新幾內(nèi)亞、以及南非的研究表明:中低收入國家的香煙的需求對價格的敏感性要高于發(fā)達國家,需求彈性的值大都集中于-0.5～-1.0之間[4～5]。發(fā)達國家對香煙的需求彈性的研究比較多,美國、加拿大、澳大利亞、日本、英國以及許多西歐國家的研究發(fā)現(xiàn)發(fā)達國家的香煙的需求彈性的值集中于一個較窄的范圍內(nèi),并且大都集中于-0.25～-0.5之間[3]2024/12/1中醫(yī)大07衛(wèi)管16[3]HenrySaffer:Tobaccoadvertisingandpromotion.TobaccoControlinDevelopingCountries.OxfordPress.[4]毛正中,蔣家林1“卷煙需求及其影響因素:一個斷面資料模型”[J].中國衛(wèi)生事業(yè)管理,1997;5:2272229.[5]毛正中,蔣家林等1“卷煙需求與價格政策”[J].中國衛(wèi)生經(jīng)濟,1997;6:50～52.

aillusion?

thesubstitutesoftobccotheperspectiveoftobcco2024/12/1中醫(yī)大07衛(wèi)管17參考文獻[1]Buck,David,C.Godfrey,M.Raw,andM.Sutton.1995.TobaccoandJobs.York,U.K.:SocietyfortheStudyofAddictionandtheCentreforHealthEconomics,UniversityofYork.[2]Chaloupka,F.J.,andH.wechsler.1997.“Price,TobaccoControlPoliciesandSmokingAmongYoungAdults.”JournalofHealthEconomics16(3):359-73.[3]HenrySaffer:Tobaccoadvertisingandpromotion.TobaccoControlinDevelopingCountries.