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AutomotiveOutlook2040

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forthemarathonahead

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AutomotiveOutlook2040

Paceyourselfforthemarathonahead

Theautomotiveindustryisinthemidstofalengthyperiodofdisruption,

astormthatisunlikelytosubsideanytimesoon.Overthenextdecadeandahalf,newtechnologyandgeopoliticaleventswillcontinuetoradically

transformmarketsanddisruptsupplychains.Atthesametime,thecenterofgravityoftheindustrywillshift–butinwhichdirectionremainstobeseen.

WillAsiabecallingtheshotsin2040,orwillWesternplayersmanagetostageaneffectivecomeback?

Theuncertaintyoverwhatliesaheadmakesitvitalforthoseintheindustrytounderstandthetrendsdrivingthisprolongedprocessoftransformationoverthenextdecadeandahalf.Ourresearchshowsthatthepreviouslyidentifiedshift

towardsinnovative,sharedmobilitysolutionsthatwethoughtwouldbeaglobalphenomenonwillinfactlargelybelimitedtometropolitanareas,whichaccountforlessthantenpercentofthedistancetraveledbyprivatevehiclesoverall.

What,then,doestheroadaheadholdfortheautomotiveworld?

Weidentifyfourdirectionsofchangethatstandoutfromthemanytrends

inthemarket–fourmegatrendsthatwebelievewillshapethetransformation

oftheindustrythrough2040.TheirinitialsformtheacronymPACE:TheautomotiveworldisbecomingmorePolarized,withregionalnuancesandaddedcomplexitymakingglobalizationmorechallenging,forcingplayerstomakechoices.

Automationisgrowing,withtheriseofautonomousvehiclesanduseofAIall

alongthevaluechain.VehiclesareincreasinglyConnectedanddigitalized.AndElectrificationcontinuesapace–indeed,ourbase-casescenarioassumesa

battery-electricvehicleshareof71percentin2040,whileourdownsidecaseassumesashareof64percent,subjecttoregionalvariation.

Intermsofmarketdynamics,salesvolumesandrevenuepoolsareshiftingtoChinaandtheGlobalSouth,whileWesternmarketshavealreadyreached

"peakauto"intermsofnewvehiclesales.Thefollowingpagesincludedetailedforecastsforfuturerevenuepoolsineachregion,plusspecificrecommendationsforautomotivemanufacturersandsuppliers.

Theroadaheadwillbealongone,withunexpectedtwistsandturnsalongtheway.Thisisamarathon,notasprint–andplayersmustpacethemselvesaccordingly.

2|RolandBerger

P4

P6

P10

P26

P34

CoverphotoArturDebat/GettyImages

P45

PACE2040–Ourcorebeliefs

1/Theautomotiveworldischanging,butprobablynothowyouwereexpecting

2/Fourdevelopmentsreshapingtheautoindustry

2.1/Polarized–Fromglobalizationtoregionalization2.2/Automated–Fromhumantoartificialintelligence2.3/Connected–Fromhorsepowertoterabytes

2.4/Electrified–FromICEstoEVs

3/Theevolutionofproductsandregions

3.1/Movetowardslocal-for-localproducts

3.2/ChinaandtheGlobalSouthontherise,butWesternmarketsholdfirm

4/Navigatingthetransformation

4.1/OEMs–ChinesedominanceorrevitalizationoftheWest?

4.2/Suppliers–Newrevenuepoolsandashiftingbalanceofpower

5/Themarathonahead

AutomotiveOutlook2040|3

PACE2040–

Ourcorebeliefs

FourPACEmegatrendsaredrivingthetransformation

Theautomotiveindustryin2040willbepolarized,automated,connectedandelectrified

TheworldisbecomingmorePolarized

Autoplayersneedaregionallydifferentiatedapproachandpotentiallyanewglobalmarketfocus

AutomationandAIaretransformingtheindustry

Automationiscreatingnewprofitpools,whileAItechnologyiskeytoimprovingperformance

In2040,theautomotiveindustrywillbemoreConnected

Playersshouldpreparethemselvesforaparadigmshiftinthestructureoftheindustry

Electrificationisgrowingfasteverywhere

AlthoughrecentmarketdevelopmentshavecalledintoquestioncurrentBEVadoptionforecasts,theoveralldirectionofchangecannotnowbereversed

Privatevehicleswillremainpartoftheequation

Sharedmobilityconceptsarereshapingcustomerbehavior,butonlyinlargeurbanareas

Tomorrow'svehiclesareelectrified,automatedandconnected

Butmajorregionaldisparitiesataproductlevelwillpersistthrough2040

Marketdynamicsvaryfromregiontoregion

Westernmarketsarereachingpeakauto,butgrowthwillcontinueinChinaandtheGlobalSouth

ThebalanceofpowerisshiftingtowardsChina

Thequestionis,canWesternautomotivemanufacturersrevitalize?

Suppliersfacestructuralchange

Strategicprioritieswilldependonsuppliers'domain,regionalfocusandgrowthexpectations

AutomotiveOutlook2040|5

Theautomotiveworldischanging,but

probablynothowyouwereexpecting

Te,riieab

ofpowerintheindustry.Newentrantsareaggressivelyseizingmarketsharefromestablishedplayers,vehicletechnologyisevolvingatanunprecedentedpaceandthemacroeconomicandgeopoliticallandscapeisgainingpreviouslyunseenlayersofcomplexity.Nowisacrucialtimefortheautomotiveindustrytorevisititsstrategicpriorities.Howwilltheindustryevolveoverthenext15

years?Whatforceswilldrivethetransformation?Andhowshouldcarmanufacturersandsuppliersprepareforthemarathonahead?

Traditionally,automotiveplayersbasetheirlong-termstrategiesonthechangestheyexpecttoseeinmobilitybehavior–changessuchasanoveralldecreaseintheuseofprivatevehiclesorthetransformationoftoday'sautomotiveplayersintomobilityserviceprovidersorcommoditysuppliersforothermobilityplayers.Indeed,

theassumptionthatinnovative,sharedmobilitysolutionswouldreplacedemandforprivatevehicle-basedmobilitylaybehindmanyviewsonthelong-termoutlookfortheindustry,particularlythosedevelopedinthemid-2010s.

Ouranalysisoftheglobalautomotiveindustryfindsthattheexpecteddisruptioninmobilityhasoccurredatmuchslowerpacethananticipated.Currentchangesinmobilitypatternsaremainlyrestrictedtolargeurbanareas,whichaccountforlessthantenpercentofthedistancetraveledbyprivatevehiclesoverall.Evenintheselargeurbanareas,thehypearoundnewmobilityofferingshasnotdeliveredonitspromisesandhasprovenoveroptimisticwithregardstothespeedofchange.Itisnowclearthatmajordisruptionofthesortthatwaswidelypredictedisnotlikelyintheperiodto2040:Itwillhappen,butnotatthepaceexpected.Weneedamoredifferentiatedapproachtoshiftsinmobilitybehavior–onethatdistinguishesbehaviorinurbanareasfromthatinruralorsuburbanareas.A

AImportanceofprivatevehiclesinurbanvs.rural/suburbanareas,2023

Shareoftotalmileagedrivenbyprivatevehiclesbytypeofroad[%]

10%

Metropolitanareas

relevantforurbanmobilityconcepts

Despiteonlyaccountingforasmallshareoftotalmobilityneed, changingmobilitybehaviorin metropolitanareasisthefocusofmostdisruptiveforecasts

90%

Highways,countryroadsandsmallercitiesnotrelevantforurbanmobilityconcepts

Note:DatabasedonaverageacrossGermany,USAandChina

Source:RolandBerger

AutomotiveOutlook2040|7

Demandformobility,asreflectedinthetotalnumberofmilestraveled,isforecasttocontinuegrowinginmostregionsoftheworldatarateoftwotothreepercentayearintheperiodto2040.Themaindriversofthisincreaseareeconomicanddemographicdevelopment.Factorsrelatingtochangesintechnologyorsociety,suchasmoreremoteworkormoreonlineshopping,onlyhaveaminorimpactonoveralldemandformobility.

Inlargeurbanareas,newmodesoftransportationsuchasurbanairmobilityandautonomousdriving,plustheincreasingpenetrationofmicromobility(bicycles,e-bikes,electricscooters)andsharedmobilityservices,willhaveanegativeimpactonvehicleusageoverthecomingdecadeandahalf.However,theoverallimpactonvehiclesaleswillbeminor.Inthecaseofnewmodesoftransportation,thisisduetothesmallscaleofthesenewofferingsandthelimitedareasinwhichtheyoperate.Micromobilitywillgrowintermsofthenumberoftripsmade,yetourresearchshowsthatthistypeofmobilitycomplementstripsinprivatevehiclesratherthanreplacingthem.Regulation,suchascongestionchargesandno-carzones,willlikelyhaveastrongerimpactonvehicleusage,butherethesituationdifferswidelyfromcitytocityandregiontoregion.TheUnitedStates,forexample,currentlyhasno

citieswithmajorrestrictionsonvehicles,whereasseveralEuropeancitieshavecompletelybannedprivatecarsfromenteringdowntownareas.

Inthecomingdecadeandahalf,wedonotexpecttoseeanymajorchangeinthefactthatsuburban,ruralandlong-distancetravelaccountforthevastmajorityofmilestraveledbycar.InGermany,forexample,travelinlargeurbanareasisaround35percentbyprivatevehicleand20percentbypublictransit,whileinruralareasthesplitis70percentprivatevehiclestojustfivepercentpublictransit.WeexpectthesituationinGermanyandelsewheretoremainlargelyconstantintheperiodto2040,withonlyaslightdeclineinprivatevehicleuseinlargeurbanareas.Globally,micromobilityisnotrelevantinruralareas,norarerestrictionssuchascongestioncharges,andconsumerswillcontinuetoshowastrongpreferenceforprivatevehicle-basedmobility.Automotiveplayerswouldthereforebewrongtobuildtheirlong-termstrategiesontheexpectationofasuddenshiftinoverallmobilitybehavior.Whileautomotiveplayersmust,ofcourse,keepaneyeonongoingdevelopmentsinmobilitybehavior,themorefundamental,prolongedchangesintheautomotiveindustrythrough2040willoccurelsewhere–aswediscussinthefollowingchapter.B

Fourmegatrendswillshape

thetransformationof

theindustrythrough2040.

Theirinitialsformthe

acronymPACE.

8|RolandBerger

Keydriversinfluencingprivatevehicleusageacrossurban,suburbanandruralareas

Impactonprivatevehicleusage

Micromobility

Willcontinuetogrowquickly,drivenbypoliticalsupportandstrongcustomerdemand.Will

complement,notreplace,privatecars.Majorregionaldifferenceswillpersist

LowMediumHigh

Carsharing

Furthergrowthexpectedinurbanareas,butprofitabilitychallengelimitsscalability.Evidencesuggestsimpactonmotorizationratesislimited

Urbanairmobility

Gradualrolloutinselectedlargeurbanareas,butinsufficientscaleandgeographical

coveragetohaveamajorimpactonglobalvehiclesales

Autonomouson-demandmobility

Speedofadoptionsubjecttogreatuncertainty.Availabilitylikelytobelimitedtothelargest

urbanareas.Oftenreplacesothersharedmodes,e.g.conventionaltaxisandbuses

Downtownentryrestrictions

Willpotentiallyhaveastrongimpactonvehicleusageinurbanareas,butwillonlyapplyinspecificcitiesandvarybyglobalregion

Infrastructurechanges

Couldhaveamajorimpactonvehicleusageinurbanareas,butrolloutrequiresstrong,

sustainedpoliticalwill,whichisonlyfoundinalimitednumberofcities

Largeurbanareas

Source:RolandBerger

BManyfactorsaffectprivatevehicleusage

●Suburban/ruralareas

AutomotiveOutlook2040|9

Fourdevelopmentsreshapingtheautoindustry

f,aswehaveseen,mobilitybehaviorwillnotbethe

Icauseofmajordisruptionintheindustry,whatisitthatwilltriggerthetransformationandshiftinbalanceofpowerintheperiodto2040?Whichdevelopmentswillshapetheautoindustryoverthenextdecadeandhalf?Andwhereshouldautomotivecompaniesbefocusingtheirresourcesinthisongoingmarathon?

Toanswerthesequestions,wecarriedoutanin-depthanalysisofcurrenttrendsintheglobalautomotiveindustryandtheirlikelydevelopmentthrough2040.Wedrawonthisanalysis,inadditiontoinsightsfromourglobalteamofexpertsandextensivediscussionswithindustryprofessionalsandexecutives,inthediscussionbelow.Ourchieffindingisthatfourkeydevelopmentsstandoutasmegatrendsshapingtheindustrythrough2040:ThefuturewillbePACE–Polarized,Automated,ConnectedandElectrified.C

2.1/Polarized–Fromglobalizationtoregionalization

Differentregionsaresettodevelopindifferentdirectionsandatdifferentspeedsinthemarathonahead.Arangeoffactorsisdrivingthisvariety:geopoliticaldevelopments,differencesinregulation,technologicaldifferences,customerpreferencesandmacroeconomicshifts.Forexample,ChinaisonatrajectoryfrombeingthegrowthengineforEuropeanOEMstobeingalargelyfullyelectricvehiclemarketdominatedbydomesticplayers,whilemostofNorthAmericawillremainaninternalcombustionengine(ICE)marketformanyyearstocome.Asdifferentregionsdivergeanddevelopattheirownpaceintheperiodto2040,theindustrywillbecomemorepolarized.Thisstandsinradicalcontrasttothewidertrendtowardsglobalizationseeninpreviousdecades.

CDrivingforces

Fourdevelopmentsshapingtheautoindustrythrough2040

P

Polarized

Fromglobalizationtoregionalization

Towardsincreasing

regionalization

ofmarketsbetween

WestandEast

A

Automated

Fromhuman

toartificialintelligence

Increasing

automationindriving

andalongthe

valuechain

C

Connected

Fromhorsepowertoterabytes

Dataandsoftware

becomekeyascars

turnintocomputers

onwheels

E

Electrified

FromICEtoEVs

AdoptionofEVsis

followingdifferent

trajectoriesacross

markets

Source:RolandBerger

AutomotiveOutlook2040|11

Polarizationwillnotonlyimpactvaluechainsbutalsolargelydeterminewherefuturesalesmarketsandrevenuepoolsarelocated.Automotiveplayersthereforeneedtofollowaregionallydifferentiatedapproach,potentiallyredefiningtheirglobalmarketfocus.Below,weidentifythreekeydevelopmentsthatautomotiveplayerswillneedtoreacttoinordertoremaincompetitive.

NORTHAMERICA,EUROPEANDCHINAWILLREMAINTHECOREAUTOMOTIVEMARKETS,DESPITESTRONGGROWTHINTHEGLOBALSOUTH

EconomicgrowthintheUnitedStatesandCanada,whilestrongerthaninmostotherWesternmarkets,isexpectedtobearound1.8percentayearintheperiod2024to2030,fallingto1.5percentayearfrom2031to2040.InEurope,1economicgrowthwillbejust1.1percentbetween2030and2040,wellbelowtheglobalaverageof2.1percent.Similarly,Chinaisnotexpectedtoreachitsformereconomicgrowthrates,withratesdownto3.8percentbetween2024and2030and2.9percentinthedecadeafterthat.ThiscontrastswithstrongGDPgrowthinmarketsintheGlobalSouth,2at3.9percentintheperiod2024to2030and3.1percentfrom2031to2040.Somelargeemergingmarkets,includingIndia,willevenreachgrowthratesexceeding5percentbetween2024and2040.Despitethis,theGlobalSouthwillaccountforjust34percentorsoofglobalGDPgrowth,andpurchasingpowerwillremainsignificantlylowerthannotonlyintheWestbutalsoinChina.

Populations,especiallyworking-agepopulations,willgrowby25percentintheGlobalSouthoverthenextdecadeandahalf,whileshrinkinginEurope(byninepercent)andChina(bytenpercent).However,motorizationratesandinfrastructurelevelsintheGlobalSouthwillremainlowerthanindevelopedmarketsandChina.Thecurrenthighshareofentry-levelandvolumesegmentsintheGlobalSouthwillalsopersist,reflectinglowerincomelevelsintheseregions.Allinall,theGlobalSouthwillsee

above-averagemarketgrowth,butmostlyforhighvalue-for-moneyvehicles.D

REGULATORYDRIVEFORSUSTAINABILITYWILLPERSIST,BUTWITHREGIONALDIFFERENCES

Regulatorshavepushedforareductioningreenhousegases,evenifnetzerotargetsarenotlikelytobereachedassoonasplanned.Behindtheseeffortsisstrongpopularsupportandadesireonthepartofgovernmentstoachievecompetitiveadvantagefortheirindustries.Industryhasmadeclearcommitments;however,thestrengthofeffortswillcontinuetovaryfromregiontoregion.Atthesametime,politicalpartiesinsomecountriesarenowquestioningthefeasibilityoftargetssuchastheEUmandatefor100percentofnewvehiclesalestobezero-emissionby2035,orarguingthatthereshouldbeexemptionsfore-fuels.

DECISION-MAKERSCANNOLONGERRELYONASTABLEGEOPOLITICALENVIRONMENT

Wearewitnessinganincreaseinthelevelofglobalpoliticalinstability,withthehighestnumberofviolentconflictscurrentlytakingplacesincetheendoftheSecondWorldWarandgrowingrivalrybetweentheUnitedStatesandChina.In2018wesawthestartofaninternationaltradewarandasurgeinprotectionistmeasuresaroundtheglobe:In2024alone,morethan3,300protectionistmeasuresadverselyimpactedtheautomotiveindustry,accordingtodatafromtheUniversityofUppsala.Thisdevelopmentwillaffecttheenvironmentinwhichautomotiveplayersactandthelong-termtrajectoryofthe

1TheEU-27,UnitedKingdom,Albania,Andorra,Belarus,

Georgia,Iceland,Kosovo,Moldova,Monaco,Montenegro,NorthMacedonia,Norway,SanMarino,Serbia,SwitzerlandandUkraine.

2IncludingdevelopingandemergingmarketsinAsia,AfricaandLatinAmerica,butexcludingChina.

DGlobalgrowthdynamicsareshifting

Macroeconomicanddemographicdevelopmentbyregion,2024-40[%growthp.a.]

Populationgrowth,2024-40[%p.a.]

1.5%

1.0%

0.5%

0.0%

-0.5%

-1.0%

GlobalSouth

Global

average

USA/

Canada

China

Decliningpopulation

Europe

Japan/Korea

0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%

GDPgrowth,2024-40[%p.a.]

GDPpercapita,2040

Source:OxfordEconomics,RolandBerger

industry.Forexample,anyriseinprotectionistmeasuressuchastariffsorexportbanswillimpactthesupplyofcriticalrawmaterialsandcomponents,aswellasbidirectionalaccesstomarkets.

Thenextdecadeandahalfmaybringlocal-for-localproductionregulationsandacontinuationofgovernmentsubsidies,bothofwhichwouldhavestrongimplicationsforthesetupofglobalvaluechains.Ultimately,weexpecttoseeashiftawayfromglobalizationdominatedbyasingleregionandtowardstheemergenceofdifferent

ecosystems,onedominatedbytheUnitedStatesandtheotherbyChina.Thiswilllimitaccesstomarketsanddrasticallyincreasethecomplexityandcostofservingmarketsaroundtheglobe,aswellasdrivinguppricesforconsumers.Toremaincompetitiveamongsuchuncertainty,decision-makersintheautomotiveindustryneedtokeepgeopoliticalconsiderationsatthetopoftheiragenda,strengtheningtheirlocal-for-localstrategiesandcarryingoutcontinuousriskandresiliencechecksontheirsupplychains.E

12|RolandBergerAutomotiveOutlook2040|13

EMajortradeinterventionsaffectingautomotiveplayers

EVtariffs

Retaliation

measuresby

China

Gallium/germaniumexportban

Semiconductor

technology

USInflationReductionAct

embargo

2018

2022

2023

8

2024

Semiconductorexportban

StartofUS-Chinatradewar

Graphiteexportban

Rareearthprocessingtechnology

EVtariffs

Europe

USA

China

Various

Semiconductor

E-mobilityTradeinterventionintroducedby…

Source:RolandBerger

2.2/Automated–Fromhumantoartificialintelligence

Automateddrivingstillfacesmultiplechallengesandadoptionistakingmuchlongerthanexpected.Whileassisteddriving(Level2+)ismakingprogress,carmanufacturersarefarbehindinitialforecastsforhighlyautomateddrivingsystems(Levels3and4).Intermsoftechnology,trainingforuncommon,messysituationssuchasreactingtoearlyrespondersorunusualtrafficsituationsremainschallenging.Majorregionaldifferencesinregulationcurrentlylimitscalabilityandaddcomplexity,particularlyfortherolloutofon-demandautonomousvehicles(AVs)suchasrobotaxis–althoughthefirstdriverlesstaxishaveappearedinsomecitiesandarebeing

rolledouttoothersinChinaandtheUnitedStates,thetwocountriesthatleadthewayhere.IncreasedcustomeracceptancewillbecrucialforthewidespreadadoptionofAVs,yetthistrustisdifficulttobuild.Society'swillingnesstoforgiveanAVformakingamistakeisstillsignificantlylowerthanforahumandriver.

Moreover,thequestionofeconomicviabilityisstillnotcompletelyresolved.Althoughsomeprovidershaveannouncedthatprofitabilityforon-demandAVservicesisachievableinspecificcitiesintheshortterm,moregenerallysuchserviceswillremainchallengingduetothehighlevelofutilizationandscalerequired.ForprivateAVs,customers'willingnesstopaypresentsafurtherbarriertoadoption,alsointhepremiumsegment.However,thesechallengesarenotinsurmountable,especiallyif

policymakersimproveconditionsfortestingandmarketintroduction.Atthesametime,AVcompanieswillneedtocontinuouslyimprovecostefficiency.F

Althoughweexpecttoseemultiplereal-lifeapplicationsofAVsontheroadsin2040,thejourneytothatpointwillbegradualanddifferwidelyfordifferentusecasesandregions.Weidentifysixmajor"progressmarkers"alongthepathtoautomateddriving:

#1:On-demandAVsareavailable

On-demandAVssuchasrobotaxis,robo-shuttlesandrobo-buses,alreadyoperatinginsomecitiesintheUnitedStatesandChina,willgrowinvolumefromtoday'ssmallfleets.Bytheearly2030sthesevehicleswillhavereachedfleetsizescomparabletothoseofconventionaltaxisinsomelargeurbanareas.By2040weexpectthatscaledfleetsofon-demandAVswillformanintegralpartofmobilityinthelargesturbanareasglobally.Insomeregions,especiallywithinEurope,robo-buseswillalsoincreasinglyserveruralareas.

#2:On-demandAVsoperateprofitably

Manyplayerswillachieveprofitabilityby2040fortheiron-demandautonomousmobilityservices.However,intheinterveningyears,weexpecttoseefiercebattlesformarketshareandoperationalchallenges,thelatterseverelyaffectingprofitability.Theresultingmarketconsolidationmayultimatelyleadtohigherpricelevelsandthusmoresustainablemarginlevels.

#3:CustomerscanbuyAVsforprivateuse

WeexpecttoseesignificantvolumesofAVsontheroadin2040,buttheywillstilllargelybelimitedtothepremiumsegment.Thetrickledowntothevolumesegmentwillbegradual,duetocontinuinghighincrementalcosts.

#4:Packagesaredeliveredbyautonomoustrucks

CommercialAVswillachievesubstantialmarketshareinlong-haulapplicationsby2040,whilepenetrationforlast-

FChallengesfortheadoptionofautonomousdriving

Technologicalprogress

Trainingforuncommonsituationssuchasreactingtoearlyrespondersorunusualtrafficconditionstakestime("taileffect")

Customeracceptance

Buildingtrustamongconsumersischallenging

Capitalsupply

Significantinvestmentisneededfordevelopingandtestingautonomousvehicles

Economicviability

Economicviabilityofautonomouson-

demandservicesischallengingduetohighlevelofutilizationandscalerequired

Regulatorycomplexity

Strongregionaldifferencesinlegislationlimitscalabilityandaddcomplexity

Wereferto"autonomousdriving"whenreferringtoL4drivingwithoutadriverrequired,whileusingthebroaderterm

"automateddriving"whenreferringtolowerADASlevels|Theterm"autonomouson-demandservices"referstorobotaxis,robo-

shuttlesandrobo-buses.

Source:RolandBerger

10

9

6

5

4

2

1

3

7

14|RolandBergerAutomotiveOutlook2040|15

GThetrajectorytoautomateddrivingisincremental

Progressinautomateddriving,2025-40

203020352040

1

2

3

4

5

6

On-demandautonomousvehiclesare

available

On-demandautonomousservice

providersoperate

profitably

Customers

canbuy

autonomousvehiclesfor

privateusage

Packagesaredeliveredby

autonomoustrucks

Customers

fullytrust

thesafetyofautonomousvehicles

Autonomous

drivingis

legalonpublicroads

SmallfleetsinselectedcitiesinUS/China

Despiteprogress,most

players'operationsarestillnotprofitable

Norelevantmarketshare(pilotsonly)

Norelevantmarketshare(pilotsonly)

Lowtrust,mostpeople

thinkAVsarelesssafethanhumandrivers

Legalframeworklimitedtopredefinedtestroads/areas

Fleetsreachcomparablesizetotaxiswithhuman

driversinselectedcitiesinUS/China

Fiercefightformarketshareandoperationalchallengesaffect

profitability

Firstofferingsinpremiumsegment,mainlyrestrictedtoL4highwaypilots

L4trucksrunonpredefinedcorridorsorexit-2-exit

Moderatetrust,most

peoplethinkAVsarejustassafeashumandrivers

Legalframeworkinplaceinsomeregionsandusecases

Scaledfleetsarean

integralpartofmobilityinlargesturbanareasglobally

Consolidationforces

unprofitableplayersoutofthemarket,butmargins

remaintight

Slowbutgrowing

penetrationinvolumesegment,too

Increasingpenetrationinlonghaul,butstillasmallshareoflast-miledelivery

Highleveloftrust,most

peoplethinkAVsaresaferthanhumandrivers

Clearlegalframework

inplaceforallusecases,regionalvariationremains

Noprogress

Strongprogress

Source:RolandBerger

miledeliverywillremainlower.Weexpecttoseet