2024年全球汽車顛覆速度表-2024-10-市場解讀

Wheretorevup

GlobalAutomotiveDisruptionSpeedometer2024

Introduction

Theautomotiveindustryisbeingbuffetedbymoreforcesnowthanatanytimesincecarswereinvented:advancedtechnologies,thepushfor

sustainability,expandedregulationsand(de-)globalisation,tonameafew.Butwhatoftengetsforgottenistheconsumer,whoultimatelydecideswhatcartobuyandhowtomanageit.Andaswehaveseenwiththelatest

electric-vehicle(EV)purchasetrends,consumerpreferencescanoftendivergefrommanufacturerandgovernmentambitions.

Today’sconsumersaren’tmovingasfastasthehypeis.They’reopentonewpropositions,butincreasinglyknowwhattheywant–andaffordabilityplaysakeyrole.Successfulbusinesseswillmeetconsumerswheretheyareratherthantryingtoleadthembythenose.

Inthe2024Speedometer,wesharemoredetailed

findingsandinsightsonthekeytrendsandimplicationsforthewinningbusinessesofthefuture,highlighting

wheretorevupinvestments–andwheretoreverse.

2|SPEEDOMETER|WHERETOREVUP|OC&C

InThisReport

Physicalisthenewdigital.

Theonlineshoppingthattookoffduringthepandemichaswaned,givingwaytoan

omnichannelapproachwhichacknowledges

consumerpreferencesandtheinherentlyphysical

natureofcarsalesandservicing.Traditionaldealers

arebestplacedtosucceed,butthosethatbestintegratelearningsfromdigitalretailwillbethewinners.

Page20

Functional,notfun.

Consumersstillwanttheirowncar,butcarshavebecomeanincreasinglyfunctional

purchase–drivenbyneedandcost,notstatus.

Page4

Carsareconnected-butconsumersarejuststartingtologon.

OEMshaveeveryincentivetocreateappsthatprovideavenuesforpost-saleengagement,andtheyhavebuiltthefeaturestodoso.With

one-thirdofownersusingcar

apps,there’sanaudiencereadytoreachandheadroomformore

users.

Page27

Subscriptionmotoringisstalled.

Consumerswanttospreadoutthecostandriskofownershipfornewandusedcars–butsuppliers

haven’tcrackedthesubscriptionpropositionatapriceconsumersfindpalatable.

Page10

China’scarownersthinkdifferent–

butthismightbeindustryimmaturityasmuchasacrystalballfortheWest.

Chineseautomotiveconsumersaresignificantlymoreinterestedinonlinecarpurchases,EVsandsubscriptionmodelsthanconsumersinother

countries.ButinChina,carownersareyoung,urbanandwealthy,

andtheyoungcarparcmeans

thefactorsthatsupportmore

traditionalpurchasepatternsareonlynowdeveloping.

Page29

EVadoptionisbeing

heldbackbyperception,notreality.

Consumershavegrowingconcernsaboutcost,rangeandcharginginfrastructure,butmanyofthesearedrivenbyinaccurateperceptions.

Industryandespeciallygovernmentshavemucheducatingtodo.

Page15

OC&C|SPEEDOMETER|WHERETOREVUP|3

Functional,notfun

Peoplestillwantcars

Conversationsaboutsharedmobilityandrobotaxishavebeenswirlingforyears,butaswepredictedinearlierreports,thehypeexceedstherealityandconsumersstillwanttheirowncars.Thisremainstrueeveninthe

faceofeconomicchangeoverthepastfouryears.Whilecarbuyingbehaviorsandattitudeshaveshifted,consumersviewcarownershipasessential.

CAROWNERSHIPISHOLDINGSTEADY

Importanceofcarownershipovertimebycountry1

(%ofrespondentsagreeing/stronglyagreeing)

–2p.p.

91

9394

n/a2

n/a2

2019

2021

2022

2024

2019

2021

2022

2024

88

8988

0p.p.

8989

2019

2021

2022

2024

83

85

+3p.p.

91

8889

n/a2

2019

2021

2022

2024

2019

2021

2022

2024

80

+1p.p.

818182

+2p.p.

86

2019

2021

2022

2024

787980

+3p.p.

767778

2019

2021

2022

2024

73

1.Q43:Towhatextentwouldyouagreewiththefollowing,where1=disagreeand5=agree:Havingyourowncarisessentialtogettingaround?Re?ectsonlyrespondentswhodrive.

2.Nohistoricaldataavailable.

Source:SpeedometerSurvey2019–24,OC&Canalysis.

4|SPEEDOMETER|WHERETOREVUP|OC&C

Ownershipisbecomingmorefunctionalandlessemotional

Amorenotableshiftisseenintoday’sconsumer

attitudestowardcars.Driversarelesslikelytoviewcarsasstatussymbols,especiallyincountrieswith

thestrongesthistoricaldevotion(intheUS,those

whoagreeacarisanimportantstatussymbol

hasdroppedfrom54%in2021to41%today),and

particularlysoamongyoungerdemographics.Oneregiondivergessignificantlyfromthistrend:China,whereconsumersdostillseecarsasstatussymbols.Chineseconsumerpreferencesdivergefromotherregionsonanumberofdimensions,aswediscuss

laterinthereport.

33p.p.

dropinconsumers24yearsandyoungerviewingcarsasastatussymbolfrom

2018to2022

15p.p.

dropinconsumers65yearsandolderfrom2018to2022

CARSAREN'TTHESTATUSSYMBOLSTHEYUSEDTOBE

Importanceofcarasastatussymbolovertimebycountry1

(%ofrespondentsagreeing/stronglyagreeing)

+3p.p.

69

–6p.p.

37

2021

2022

2024

3231

–13p.p.

54

2021

2022

2024

48

41

–3p.p.

n/a2

2021

2022

2024

37

34

–5p.p.

32

2021

2022

2024

2827

–8p.p.

42

34

2021

2022

2024

31

–10p.p.

46

n/a2

2021

2022

2024

2021

3736

–3p.p.

28

2022

2024

25

66

2021

2022

2024

64

1.Q43R8:Towhatextentwouldyouagreewiththefollowing,where1=disagreeand5=agree:Acarisanimportantstatussymbol.

2.Nohistoricaldataavailable.

Source:SpeedometerSurvey2021–24,OC&Canalysis.

OC&C|SPEEDOMETER|WHERETOREVUP|5

Consumersaredelayingpurchasesinthecost-of-livingcrisisandbuyingonmonthlybudgets

Whilecarownershipremainsessentialformanyconsumers,they’restillfeelingthepressureofcostoflivingincreasesandeconomicuncertainty.Thatpressureisdelayingcarpurchases.

ECONOMICPRESSURESAREPUSHINGCONSUMERSTOHITTHEBRAKES

Impactofeconomicpressuresontimingofcurrentcarpurchase1

(%ofrespondentsreportingaslowingofdecisiontopurchaseduetofactorsnamedbelow)

Increasesincostofliving

Economicuncertainty

Fuelprices

2022

2024

2022

2024

2022

2024

17

+13

p.p.

31

17

p.p.

+7

24

15

p.p.

+3

18

18

+8p.p.

26

18

+8p.p.

26

14

p.p.

+9

23

27

p.p.

+2

29

22

p.p.

+5

26

20

p.p.

+4

24

47

–9p.p.

38

41

–2p.p.

39

41

–8p.p.

33

Note:ForFranceandGermany,percentageswerecalculatedbygroupingregionstogetherbecauseresponseswereconsistentwithoneanother.Figuresmaynotsumduetorounding.

1.Q17BR:Didthefollowingmarketchangesimpactyourdecisiononwhentogetyourcurrentcar?

Source:SpeedometerSurvey2022–24,OC&Canalysis.

6|SPEEDOMETER|WHERETOREVUP|OC&C

Thecarpurchasebudgetisincreasinglybasedontotalmonthlyspendversusa

straightpurchaseprice.

Whenconsumersdobuy,theythinkaboutbudgetfirst,notthemakeormodelofcar.

BUDGETISTHEDECIDINGFACTORFORCONSUMERSONTHEHUNTFORACAR

Consumersbeginningsearchesfromabudgetlens1

(%ofrespondents)

1-Disagree

234

5-Agree

3

5

25

39

27

6

8

22

34

29

7

7

23

37

26

4

8

26

34

28

11

7

30

31

21

6

11

35

32

16

15

9

28

31

17

1

5

21

46

27

Decreasingbudget-focusedsearch

>

1.Q43:Towhatextentwouldyouagreewiththefollowing,where1=disagreeand5=agree?IstartmysearchforacarbyworkingoutthebudgetIcanaffordratherthansearchingforaspeci?ccar.Re?ectsonlyrespondentswhodrive.

Source:SpeedometerSurvey2024,OC&Canalysis.

OC&C|SPEEDOMETER|WHERETOREVUP|7

Inthecurrentenvironment,transactionsareincreasinglydrivenbyneedversuswant,

thoughthisvariesbygeography.IntheUK,USandAustralia,halfofvehiclepurchasesarediscretionary,whileinGermany,two-thirdsaredrivenbyneed.

WANTORNEED?REASONSFORBUYINGAVEHICLEAREMIXED

(%ofrespondents)

3

2

3

4

4

3

4

36

19

39

Other

Ididn’thaveacarbeforeandnowneedone

Ineededadifferentcar

MyoldcarbrokeandIhadtoreplaceit

Iwasreadyforachangeorwasabletoafford

abetter/differentcar

6

8

26

13

47

27

7

21

44

3

8

9

9

24

22

23

33

18

15

26

17

52

50

41

38

5

29

14

48

1.Q17C:Whatwasthemainreasontochangeyourcaratthatpoint?Re?ectsonlyrespondentswithrecentvehicletransaction.Source:SpeedometerSurvey2024,OC&Canalysis.

8|SPEEDOMETER|WHERETOREVUP|OC&C

Despitetheheadlines,motoringremainsrelativelyaffordable

MOTORINGCOSTSTRACKBELOWCOSTOFLIVING

UKcostofmotoringvscostofliving

(%increase)51

47

CostoflivingAllmotoringcosts

Inmanycountries,theall-incostof

motoringhasactuallydeclinedinrealtermsoverthepastdecade.

Forexample,theUKhasexperienced51%cumulativegeneralinflationanda47%increaseinmotoringcostssince2014–inlinewithaveragewages,whichalso

roseby47%.Insurancehasincreasedmarkedlyin

realterms,butcostofthevehicleitselfandfuelhavetrackedfarbelowinflationintheUK.

Source:RAC,OC&Canalysis(2014–24data).

OC&C|SPEEDOMETER|WHERETOREVUP|9

Subscription

motoringisstalled

Enthusiasmforfractionalmotoringislowandoftendeclining

Fractionalownershipmodels(forexample,rental,carclubs,orUber)couldholdpromisefordrivers,butconsumerinterestisstagnatingordeclining.Thisdoesn’tnecessarilymeanconsumersaren’topentonewmodels,butprovidershaven’t

yetdevelopedacompellingconsumerofferingthatalsomakestheeconomicsworkforthem.

10|SPEEDOMETER|WHERETOREVUP|OC&C

OUTSIDEOFTHEUK,INTERESTINALTERNATIVEOWNERSHIPMODELSISFLATORFALLING

Considerationforfutureownershipalternatives1

(%ofrespondentswhowouldconsideranalternativeinadditionto/insteadofowning)

Short-termrentalsandtaxisarefailing

togrowoutsideoftheUK...

Short-termrentingwhenyouneedit(e.g.

ridesharingUber)

Taxisand(e.g.Lyft,

Enterprise,Europcar,Hertz,etc.)

...whileconsiderationforotheralternativesisstagnating

Hiringacarfromamemberofthe

public(e.g.likeanAirbnbforcars)

Car-sharingclubs(e.g.Car2Go,Zipcar):accesstocarsparkedinlocalareaatanhourlyrate

2019

2022

2024

2019

2022

2024

2019

2022

2024

2019

2022

2024

19

24

p.p.

+8

27

39

30

–10p.p.

29

80

63

–10p.p.

70

+3

p.p.

192222

18

24

+18p.p.

36

38

29

–6p.p.

32

84

69

–4p.p.

80

+3

p.p.

181921

+3

p.p.

141817

34

24

–10p.p.

24

67

54

–1p.p.

66

15

17

p.p.

+2

17

+2p.p.

162018

36

26

–12p.p.

24

78

66

–6p.p.

72

18

20

p.p.

+1

19

Note:ForFranceandGermany,percentageswerecalculatedbygroupingregionstogetherbecauseresponseswereconsistentwithoneanother.Figuresmaynotsumduetorounding.

1.Q30:Nexttimeyouswapyourvehicle,wouldyouconsideranyofthefollowingalternativestohavingyourownvehicle?Source:SpeedometerSurvey2019–24,OC&Canalysis.

OC&C|SPEEDOMETER|WHERETOREVUP|11

Consumerswanttospreadoutthecostofownership,butsuppliershaven’tprofitablycrackedthecode

Oneinthreedriversreportedthatamonthly‘subscription’isattractivebecauseitwouldinvolvelesshassle,nosurprisecostsandstablemonthlypayments.For80%ofconsumers,thosebenefitsaremoreimportantthan

theabilitytoswapcars.Sothetraditionalviewofa‘subscription’beingaboutflexibilityiswrong–itisattractivebecauseofitssimplicityandstability.

EASEANDCOSTVISIBILITYAREWHATMATTERFORCARSUBSCRIPTIONCUSTOMERS

Attractivefeaturesofamonthlycarsubscriptionvscurrentsetup1

(%ofallglobalrespondents)

20

Lesshassletohaveeverythinginonecontract

19

Nosurpriseoneoffcosts

16

Ilikepayingthingsmonthly

14

Bettervaluethanpayingforseparateservices

11

Nodepositrequired

10

Easiertosetup

10

Ilikeonlyhavingoneprovider

Servicesexpectedinamonthlycarsubscription2

(%ofallglobalrespondents)

76

Carinsurance

67

Servicingandrepair

58

Breakdownservices

48

Carwarranty

41

Replacementtyres

35

Fuel

29262215

13

Scratchanddent insurance(cosmeticinsurance)

Cleaning

AbilitytotemporarilyswapcarswhenIwant

Parking

Accesstorentalcars

1.Q34A:Yousaidyouwouldconsideramonthlysubscriptiontothevehicleofyourchoice.Whatmakesthisattractiveversusyourcurrentsetup?

2.Q32:Ifyoupaidforacarwithamonthlypayment,whichofthefollowingvehicleserviceswouldyouideallyliketobeabletoinclude?Source:SpeedometerSurvey2024,OC&Canalysis.

12|SPEEDOMETER|WHERETOREVUP|OC&C

Bringingvehicleservicesandcoststogetherinonetransparentpackagecanprovideeaseandcostvisibility

fortheconsumer,butonechallengeremains:stickershock.Becauseconsumersconsistentlyunderestimate

theirspendingonmanyaspectsofmotoring,theywouldseeanall-inclusivesubscriptionasamoreexpensiveoptionthatdoesn'tseemtoprovidegoodvalue.IntheUK,forexample,consumersunderestimatedtheirtotalmotoringspendbyaround18%.

UKDRIVERSARESPENDINGMOREONFUEL,INSURANCE,ANDREPAIRSANDSERVICINGTHANTHEYTHINK

Perceivedvsactualconsumerspendonautoservices(￡)

Fuel

Carinsurance

Breakdown

Repairsandservicing

Total

Perceived(surveydata)Actual

904

+18%

763

376

470

+25%

121

84·

–31%

210

279·

+33%

1,470

1,737

+18%

Note:Re?ectsonlyrespondentswhodrive.

Source:SpeedometerSurvey2021,OC&Canalysis.

Themain,andreallyonly,barriertosubscriptionsisstickershock–consumersconsistentlyunderestimatetheirspendingonmanyaspectsofmotoring,soa

monthlybundlethatmakesitalltransparentdoesn’tseemlikegoodvalue.

OC&C|SPEEDOMETER|WHERETOREVUP|13

Usedleasinghaslatentopportunity

Thereissignificantunmetdemandinleasing,withmorethanaquarterofused-carowners(anduptohalf

intheNetherlands)keentoleaseausedcar.Longer-lastingvehiclesandincreasinglysophisticatedresidualvaluepricingarepavingthepathforward.

DEMANDFORUSED-CARLEASINGISREVVINGUP

Opentoused-carleasing

(%ofused-carbuyersopentoleasing)149

33

30

29

28

22

21

18

1.Q43:Towhatextentwouldyouagreewiththefollowing,where1=disagreeand5=agree?It’smuchbettertofullyownyourcarthantohaveitonalease.Re?ectsonlyrespondentswhodrive.

Source:SpeedometerSurvey2024,OC&Canalysis.

14|SPEEDOMETER|WHERETOREVUP|OC&C

EVadoptionisbeingheldbackbyperception,

notreality

EnthusiasmforEVsisindecline

GovernmentshaveambitiousEVadoptiontargets,butconsumerambivalenceandlingering

concernsaboutcostanddrivingrangestandintheway.Ourresearchshowsthat,overthepastseveralyears,fewerconsumersareconsideringEVsineveryregionexceptChina.1

EVPURCHASECONSIDERATIONISDIMINISHINGEVERYWHEREBUTCHINA

Considerationoffullyelectricvehiclesonnextpurchase1(%)

+13p.p.

–13p.p.

58

2021

2022

2024

4545

+5p.p.

–4p.p.

49

n/a2

2021

2022

2024

2021

45

44

–7p.p.

2022

2024

44

51

+9p.p.

–10p.p.

49

n/a2

2021

2022

2024

2021

40

39

–11p.p.

66

2022

2024

55

+4p.p.

–6p.p.

50

n/a2

2021

2022

2024

2021

46

44

–8p.p.

52

2022

2024

44

+11p.p.

87

90

2021

2022

2024

79

Note:Figuresmaynotsumduetorounding.

1.Q28:Whenconsideringyournextcar,howlikelyareyoutoconsideranElectric/Hybridvehicle?Respondentsde?nitelybuyinganEV,likelytobuyone,orconsideringbuyingone.

2.Nohistoricaldata.

Source:SpeedometerSurvey2021–24,OC&Canalysis.15|SPEEDOMETER|WHERETOREVUP|OC&C

Only47%ofdriversagreethey’llhaveanEVeventually;

thishasdroppedfrom51%in2022.

Inadditiontocosttopurchaseanddrivingrange(thetoptwoconcernsineverygeographyexceptChina),driversareconcernedaboutthecostofelectricityandaccesstochargingstations.Addressingthese

concernscouldconvincethemtopurchaseanEV.Theunlocksforconsumersarelowervehicleprices,longerdrivingrangeandpublicchargepoints.

LOWERPRICES,LONGERRANGE,MORECHARGINGPOINTS:THEMUSTSFOREVADOPTION

Factorsthatwouldencouragerespondentstopurchaseanelectricvehicleastheirnextcar1

(%ofrespondentsselectingfactor)

54

52

41

17

15

11

19

Lowerelectricvehicleprices

Longerdrivingrange

Nearbypublicchargepoints

Gettingahousethathasoff-streetparking

Moremodeloptionsavailable

Dealernearmestartssellingelectricvehicles

Noneoftheabove

59

44

46

50

50

53

44

62

42

35

41

64

10

11

28

15

18

40

16

13

12

30

11

13

24

29

1

18

Note:ForFrance,Germany,Italy,andtheNetherlands,percentageswerecalculatedbygroupingregionstogetherbecauseresponseswereconsistentwithoneanother.

1.Q29B:Whatwouldittakeforyoutopurchaseanelectricvehicleasyournextcar?Re?ectsonlyrespondentswhodrive.Source:SpeedometerSurvey2024,OC&Canalysis.

OC&C|SPEEDOMETER|WHERETOREVUP|16

EVbarriersaremoreperceptionthanreality

ManyofthebarrierstoEVuptakehavebeenaddressed,soattheheartoftheissueareperceptionproblemsthatproviderswillhavetocombat.

Price:Perception

Attheendof2023,thepricegapbetweenEVsandinternalcombustionengine(ICE)vehiclesintheUShadnarrowedto$2,100($50,800forEVversus$48,700forICE);atthestartof2019,thedifferencewasalmost$30,000.AndasOEMsengineeroutcostsanddrivemoreEVsalestohitgovernmentemission-reductiontargets,EVswillbecomecheaperonalike-for-likebasisthanICEvehicles.

NewChineseEVmodelsarealsoundercuttingWesternbrandsonpriceby10-20%,withpotentialtocutfurther.Consumersarelikelytorespond:32%reportedtheyarealreadyhappytobuyfromaChinesemanufacturer,anda￡2,000discountwouldbeenoughtopersuadeafurther15-20%ofUKbuyers(orasignificant33%intheUS)tomaketheswitch.

StartingRetailinChinaStartingRetailinEUandUK

2024BydDolphin

€12,800

€28,990

2024VWId.3

€21,195

€29,760

Source:CarNewsChina,Beev,CarWow,Shop4EV

Thewrinkleinthisstoryisresidualvalues:lackofstabilityinusedEVpricesandsharpdepreciationcurvesaredrivinghigherleasing/financecostsversusICEvehicles.Buttwofactorsarelikelytoaddressthis(tariffsnotwithstanding):

first,ChineseOEMsshouldstillbeabletodeliveralower-pricedoption;second,EuropeanOEMswillbeforcedtoreactwiththeirownlower-costEVmodelsasregulationpushesthemtogrowEVregistrations.

PricesforusedEVsarealsoclosingthegapwithICEvehicles:used-vehiclevaluesfellby6.8%overallyearoveryear,butvaluesforEVsfellby20%.

Source:IndustryInsights2024Webcast,CoxAutomotive,January8,2024.

17|SPEEDOMETER|WHERETOREVUP|OC&C

Range:Perception

Inoursurvey,85%ofglobalEVdriversdidnotfindrangetobeanissue.Andmostdrivers

aren’ttravelinghundredsofmilesbycar:55%ofcustomershaven’tdoneasinglejourney

greaterthan300milesinthepastyear.EVrangeisimprovingrapidly,increasingfroma

medianrangeof234milesin2022to270milesin2023.Communicatingthismoreclearlytopotentialbuyerscantackletheperceptionthatrangeisproblematic.

Charging:Reality

Driverspointedtothelackofchargingpoints,longchargingtimes,brokenchargepointsandpayingforchargingasmajorpainpoints.Thisisanissueinallgeographies,butitisparticularlyacuteintheUK,AustraliaandChina.

27

45

28

42

71

4768

59

EVdriversarehappy–andtherecouldbemoreofthem

EVearlyadoptersarehappywiththeirvehicles,andthisistrueacrossdemographicswithanNPSof27–71acrossageandincomegroups.

EVownersareparticularlypositiveaboutdrivingexperience,feel-goodfactor,andcostsavingsonfuelandroadtax/congestioncharges.

FRNLITDECNUKAUSUS

EVOwnershipNPSbyGeography,2024Driversonly/EVowners

HowlikelywouldyoubetorecommendhavinganEVtoyourfriends?Source:SpeedometerSurvey2024,OC&Canalysis.

87%

ofEVownersgloballyseethedriving

experienceashavingapositiveimpact

82%

feelsomeorstrongpositiveimpactoncontributiontotheenvironment

Ratherthaninvestinsubsidies

forEVpurchases,especiallyas

stickerpricesbecomemore

affordable,governmentsshoulddirecttheirresourcestobetter

charginginfrastructureand

education.CommunicatingmoreeffectivelyaboutEVbarriers–

priceandrange–andthe

promiseofbetterinfrastructurecanbeaturnaroundpointfor

EVadoption.

19|SPEEDOMETER|WHERETOREVUP|OC&C

Physicalisthe

newdigital

Consumerwillingnesstotransactonlinehasplateaued,butthere’ssignificant

roomtoenablemoredigitally

Today’sconsumersexpectseamlesspurchaseexperiencesineverythingfromdrugstorestobig-ticketitems–includingcars.Convenienceandefficiencyaretablestakes.Butin

automotive,thehypeofonlinecarshoppinghasgivenwaytotherealityofthephysicalityofcars.Thegrowingappetitefor‘fullyonline’purchasesor‘clickandcollect’hasdroppedorstabilisedinallgeographiesexceptChina.

20|SPEEDOMETER|WHERETOREVUP|OC&C

FEWERBUYERSWILLINGTO‘CLICKANDCOLLECT’-INALLCOUNTRIESOUTSIDEOFCHINA

Willingnesstopurchaseacarusing‘clickandcollect’1

(%ofrespondentscitingasAgree/StronglyAgreeonbeinghappytopurchaseacaron‘clickandcollect’)

+6p.p.

–4p.p.

62

60

2021

2022

2024

56

+5p.p.

2021

2022

2024

–8p.p.

31

28

36

+8p.p.

–2p.p.

25

27

n/a2

2021

2022

2024

2021

19

–6p.p.

27

2022

2024

21

+5p.p.

n/a2

2021

2022

2024

2021

–8p.p.

21

29

24

–3p.p.

21

2022

2024

18

+1p.p.

–3p.p.

19

18

2021

2022

2024

16

+3p.p.

2021

2022

2024

–5p.p.

16

14

19

Decliningwillingness

>

1.Q43R8:Towhatextentwouldyouagreewiththefollowing,where1=disagreeand5=agree-Iwouldbehappytopurchasemynextcaron‘clickandcollect’orhomedelivery-withoutseeingit?rst.

2.Nohistoricaldata.

Source:SpeedometerSurvey2021–24,OC&Canalysis.

‘Consumersvaluethephysicalcar-purchaseexperience,butdigitalhasopportunity.’

OC&C|SPEEDOMETER|WHERETOREVUP|21

Thisisnottosaythereisnoroomforgrowthinonlinesales:somegroupsarestillkeenontheonlinecar-

buyingexperience.Interestissignificantlyhigherthantherealityofconsumerstransactingonline(estimatedatlessthan5%),suggestingthatthereisopportunitywiththerightconsumers.

Onlinetransactionopportunitieswillbeeasiestwithcertaindrivers:youngerdrivers,EVowners,andthoseconsideringChinesebrands.

YOUNGERDRIVERS:

61%

ofdriversaged35-44mayconsideronlinecarpurchase

EVOWNERSANDTHOSE

WHOWILLPURCHASEANEV:

27%

ofEVownersarelikelytopurchaseonline

THOSECONSIDERINGCHINESEBRANDS:

21%

ofdriversaged35-44woulddefinitelyconsiderChinesebrands

Onlinepurchaseappetitemayriseagain.Thisisespeciallytruegiventhathalfthereasonsfornottransactingfullyonlinearesolvable.Theyinclude:

Wantingto

part-exchangean

existingcar—as

demonstratedby

theriseincarbuyingservices

Thinkingstockandpricingonlinearen’tasgood

Notknowingfullyonlineisanoption

22|SPEEDOMETER|WHERETOREVUP|OC&C

Dealerswithanintegrateddigitaljourneyfromonlinetoin-storewillbethewinners

Forconsumerswhoarewillingtotransactfullyonline,theywanttodoitwith…adealer!

AlthoughthereisalsoappetiteforpurchasingnewcarsdirectlyfromOEMs(oftenwiththeexpectationofdealerfacilitation),dealers‘ownwebsiteswouldbethemostpopularplacetobuy’fullyonline‘.

ONLY

11%

ofrespondents(excludingChina)woulddefinitely

considerbuyingacaronlinefromAmazonin2024

Mightconsider,dependingonwhotheywerepartneredwith

27%46%28%

26%44%30%

Anindependentdealer20%48%32%

Acarsupermarket16%40%44%

Aroadsideassistancecompany15%35%50%

Aninsurancecompany15%34%51%

Acarreviewwebsite(e.g.Autoweek)14%38%49%Acarleasingcompany(e.g.Alphabet)13%34%53%

Amazon11%25%64%

Afranchisedealer

(approvedbythemanufacturer)

Carmanufacturer

(e.g.Ford,Honda,BMW)

Woulddefinitelyconsider

Wouldnotconsider

Note:DataexcludesChina.

OC&C|SPEEDOMETER|WHERETOREVUP|23

Themainstreamconsumerisseekingaseamlessjourneyonlineandoffline.Whowill

winboth‘pureonline’orinamoreomnichannelworldwilldependonwhocanmeettheconsumer’sneedforeaseandmaintainprofitability.

‘Traditional’dealershavesignificantadvantagesinmeetingconsumerneedsinboth‘pureonline’and

omnichannel:theeconomicsoflogistics,sourcing,servicing,preparingavehicleforsale,andmarketingallfavourthetraditionaldealeroranetworkofthesedealers.Foronlineplayers,thisinvolvessignificantlymoreassetsthanoriginallyexpected.Carvana–theleadingonlinesuccessstory–hassignificantdependenceonphysicalsites,with17inspectionandlogisticscentres,56reconditioninglocationsfrompartnerADESA,andaround15,000employees.

Dealeradvantagesaboundinomnichannelversuspure-playonlineinsurgents

Numberof

logisticsmovesforusedcars

Used

sourcing

Servicingrevenue

opportunityforusedcars

Marketingcosts

TraditionalDealer

0-1

Prepandretailco-locatedandoftennomovetoprepifpartexchangeis

involved

Highpart

exchangemix

~50%attach

Low

OEMbrand

haloexistsforfranchises

Online

Insurgents

2-3

Multiplemoves

fromsourceto

preptocollectionpointorhome

delivery

Highauctionmix-with

associatedfees

~20%attach

High

Large

marketing

spendtobuildtrustand

awareness

Theneedtobothmeetconsumerpreferencesandmaketheeconomicsworkmeanstheomnichannel

modelwillultimatelywinout.Digitalwillinfluencetheresearchandpurchasedecision,anddigitally-

enabledin-persondealershipexperiencescanclosethesale.Thephysica