東北老工業(yè)基地振興前景展望

東北老工業(yè)基地振興前景展望Expectation

of

the

Renaissance

of

theNortheast

of

China李凱

教授 東北大學(xué)Prof. Li

Kai

NEU目

錄Contents東北振興政策的出臺(tái)The

promulgation

of

the

renaissance

policies

of

theNortheast

of

China有望成為中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)第四極Hoping

to

be

the

fourth

pole

of

China’s

economic

growth體制改革及其成本問(wèn)題The

problems

of

the

ownership

reform

and

its

cost東北振興前景Expectation

of

the

Renaissance

of

the

Northeast

of

China1

東北振興政策的出臺(tái)The

promulgation

of

the

renaissance

policies

of

theNortheast

of

China1.1

政策出臺(tái)的背景The

background

of

the

policies

promulgation

黨的“十六大”提出的政治任務(wù)Political

task

raised

in

the

16th

congress

of

CCP

溫家寶三次考察東北P(pán)remier

Wen Jiabao’s

inspection

on

the

Northeast

of

China

中央政治局全體會(huì)議The

plenary

session

of

CCP

(Chinese

Communist

Party)

中共中央、國(guó)務(wù)院“關(guān)于實(shí)施東北地區(qū)老工業(yè)基地振興戰(zhàn)略的若干政策”P(pán)olicy

issued

by

the

Communist

Party

and

State

Council

ofthe

renaissance

of

the

northeast

of

China

中共中央十六屆三中全會(huì)The

third

plenary

session

of

the

16th

congress

of

CCP溫家寶三次考察東北P(pán)remier

Wen

Jiabao’s

inspection

on

the Northeast

of

China2003.1.31

遼寧阜新LiaoNing

Province,

Fuxin

City2003.5.31

遼寧鞍山、本溪、撫順、沈陽(yáng)LiaoNing

Province,

Anshan,

Benxi,

Fushun,

Shenyang

City2003.8.1

黑龍江、吉林：大慶、哈爾濱；吉林、長(zhǎng)春；東三省專(zhuān)家座談會(huì)HeiLongjiang

ProvinceJiLin

ProvinceDaqing,

Ha’erbin

CityJilin

City,

Changchun

City1

東北振興政策的出臺(tái)The

promulgation

of

the

Renaissance

policies

of

theNortheast

of

China1.2

中央支持東北振興的政策The

central

government

supports

the

renaissance

policiesof

the

Northeast

of

China

用新思路、新體制、新機(jī)制、新方式，走出振興老工業(yè)基地的新路子Carrying

out

a

new

way

to

reconstruct

the

old

industrialbase,

with

new

idea,

new

ownership

system,

newmechanism

and

new

method

不同于以往政策，重點(diǎn)在于營(yíng)造振興的外圍環(huán)境Different

from

the

former

policies,

it

emphasizes

theconstruction

of

the

outside

environment

of

therenaissance

of

the

northeast

of

China1

東北振興政策的出臺(tái)The

promulgation

of

the

renaissance

policies

of

theNortheast

of

China1.3

政策重點(diǎn)Policy

emphasis

完善社會(huì)保障體系Perfect

the

social

security

system

解決重點(diǎn)企業(yè)歷史遺留問(wèn)題Solving

the

historical

problems

of

those

crucial

enterprises

支持重點(diǎn)企業(yè)改造Supporting

the

alteration

of

the

crucial

enterprises

稅收改革試點(diǎn)Making

tax

reform

experimental

units

資源枯竭型城市改造Re-building

theresource-exhausted

city

生態(tài)環(huán)境建設(shè)Constructing

the

bio-environment解決重點(diǎn)大企業(yè)歷史遺留問(wèn)題Solving

the

historical

problems

of

those

crucial

enterprises剝離重點(diǎn)大企業(yè)的社會(huì)職能（中央財(cái)政補(bǔ)助）Splitting

the

social

function

organizations

off

the

crucial

enterprises優(yōu)先列入全國(guó)兼并與破產(chǎn)計(jì)劃Placing

the

related

companies

preferentially

on

the

bankruptcyagenda處置不良資產(chǎn)（銀行）Dealing

with

bad

assets

(Bank)豁免部分企業(yè)歷史欠稅Releasing

the

tax

arrears

of

some

enterprises降低資源稅Lowing

the

resource

tax允許新設(shè)備增值稅抵免Allowing

countervailing

the

value

added

tax

of

the

new

purchasedequipments稅收體制改革試點(diǎn)Tax

reform

test

in

Northeast改革要點(diǎn)：變生產(chǎn)型增值稅為消費(fèi)型增值稅，允許企業(yè)新增設(shè)備、廠房、基建等進(jìn)項(xiàng)在銷(xiāo)項(xiàng)中抵免增值稅上述政策將在東北主要工業(yè)行業(yè)中實(shí)行試點(diǎn)，取得經(jīng)驗(yàn)后在全國(guó)推廣稅收體制改革試點(diǎn)Tax

reform

test

in

Northeast預(yù)計(jì)東北每年可得到100億稅收優(yōu)惠，新投資企業(yè)和老企業(yè)改造將得到支持地方財(cái)政收入的減少，將由中央補(bǔ)貼東北振興銀行Northeastern Renaissance

Bank預(yù)計(jì)2004年，東北振興銀行將正式掛牌成立地點(diǎn)設(shè)在遼寧省沈陽(yáng)市資本金50億元人民幣，中央財(cái)政和地方財(cái)政控股意義：與國(guó)家開(kāi)發(fā)銀行共同支持東北老工業(yè)基地改造；與渤海銀行（天津）、淮海銀行（待批準(zhǔn)）作為區(qū)域性銀行體系的一部分1

東北振興政策的出臺(tái)The

promulgation

of

the

renaissance

policies

of

theNortheastern

China1.4

第一批啟動(dòng)項(xiàng)目The

first

projects

總投資610億人民幣，共100個(gè)項(xiàng)目100

projects

all

together,

with

investment

of

61billionRMB

項(xiàng)目分布：Projects

distribution遼寧省Liao

Ning

Province52項(xiàng)資金442.1億元（占72.5%）total

investment

is

44.12

billion,which

takes

up

72.5

percent黑龍江省HeiLong

jiang

Province37項(xiàng)吉林省Jin

Lin

province11項(xiàng)遼寧省重點(diǎn)項(xiàng)目Key

Project

in

LiaoNing大連造船廠擴(kuò)建DaLian

dockyard

factory

expansion

project大連新船廠擴(kuò)建DaLian

new

dockyard factory

expansion

project渤海造船廠船塢建設(shè)BoHai

dockyard

factory

boatyard

construct

project鞍鋼冷軋薄板AnShan

iron

and

steel

Group

rolling

sheet

metal

project本鋼冷軋薄板BenXi

iron

and

steel

Group

rolling

sheet

metal

project遼寧省重點(diǎn)項(xiàng)目（繼續(xù)）Key

Project

in

LiaoNing

(continue)中石油（大連）原油加工（90億元）Sino

Petrol

(Dalian)

raw

oil

process

(9billion

RMB)遼寧石油乙烯工程

Liaoning

petrol

ethane

project遼陽(yáng)PVC工程

Liaoyang

PVCproject沈陽(yáng)高壓開(kāi)關(guān)、水泵、鼓風(fēng)機(jī)（共計(jì)10億元）

Shenyang

machine

projects

(total

1

billion

RMB)遼寧省項(xiàng)目分布（52項(xiàng)，總投資442.1億元）Projects

distribution

in

LiaoNing項(xiàng)目類(lèi)別Project

sort數(shù)目Amount總投資額Total

Investments原材料工業(yè)項(xiàng)目Raw

Material

Industrial

Projects26個(gè)382.4億元裝備制造業(yè)項(xiàng)目Equipment

ManufactureIndustrial

Projects21個(gè)51.6億元農(nóng)產(chǎn)品加工項(xiàng)目Agriculture

Products

Project5個(gè)8.1億元2

有望成為中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)第四極Hoping

to

be the

forth

pole

of

Chinese

economic

growth2.1

中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的四大區(qū)域Four

rapidly

developing

regions

in

China

長(zhǎng)江三角洲（上海、江蘇、浙江），占GDP近?ChangJiang

delta

(including

ShangHai

city,JiangSu

and

ZheJiangProvince)—takes

up

?

GDP

珠江三角洲（廣東）占GDP約1/10ZhuJiang

delta

(including

GuangDong

Province)—1/10

GDP

京津塘地區(qū)（北京、天津、河北北部）Jing—Jin—Tang

Region

(Peking

,Tientsin

and

north

of

HeBei)

東北地區(qū)（遼、吉、黑）占GDP約1/10The

Northeast

of

China

(Liao,

Ji,

Hei)

)—1/10

GDP長(zhǎng)江三角洲合計(jì)珠江三角洲合計(jì)東北三省合計(jì)上海浙江江蘇廣東遼寧黑龍江吉林GDP（億元）5408.76767010636.323715.111674.411674.45458.239022242.9611603.2人口（萬(wàn)人）1334.746477127.3131098642864242383689272810655出口（億美元）320.55294384.8999.351184.651184.65123.719.917.68161.28面積（萬(wàn)平方公里）0.634110.1810.2621.074117.817.8154619.180.12

有望成為中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)第四極Hoping

to

be the

forth

pole

of

Chinese

economic

growth中國(guó)各區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況比較(2002年)2

有望成為中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)第四極Hoping

to

be the

forth

pole

of

Chinese

economic

growth2.2

東北成為重要經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)域的條件超過(guò)1億的消費(fèi)人口資源和產(chǎn)業(yè)優(yōu)勢(shì)：原油產(chǎn)量占全國(guó)2/5；商品糧占

1/3；木材占1/2；重型卡車(chē)占1/2；造船占1/3；汽車(chē)占1/4；鋼產(chǎn)量占1/8有工業(yè)的獨(dú)特優(yōu)勢(shì)有悠久的制造業(yè)傳統(tǒng)和龐大的產(chǎn)業(yè)隊(duì)伍2

有望成為中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)第四極Hoping

to

be the

forth

pole

of

Chinese

economic

growth2.3

東北振興的障礙產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)問(wèn)題：傳統(tǒng)產(chǎn)業(yè)升級(jí)和發(fā)展新產(chǎn)業(yè)國(guó)有企業(yè)問(wèn)題：企業(yè)體制和歷史遺留問(wèn)題計(jì)劃經(jīng)濟(jì)體制下形成的政府觀念問(wèn)題東北地區(qū)自我啟動(dòng)能力問(wèn)題2

有望成為中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)第四極Hoping

to

be the

forth

pole

of

Chinese

economic

growth2.4

重工業(yè)的復(fù)興——東北振興的特殊意義Heavy

industrial

renaissance—the

special

signification

of

ChineseNortheast

renaissance

東北的產(chǎn)業(yè)特點(diǎn)：重工業(yè)體系相對(duì)完整，配套能力強(qiáng)。The

traits

of

the

northeastern

industry—Heavy

industry

system

isrelatively

integrative,

with

strong

compatibility

主要產(chǎn)業(yè)：石油開(kāi)采、石油加工、鋼鐵和有色金屬冶煉、重型機(jī)械、發(fā)電設(shè)備、造船、機(jī)車(chē)、汽車(chē)、飛機(jī)制造、機(jī)床制造Main

industries—petroleum

exploitation

and

refine,

Steel

smeltingindustry,

generate

device,

heavy

machine,

locomotive,

car

andtruck,

ship,

plane

and

machine

tool

manufacturing,

etc.

產(chǎn)業(yè)中心：哈爾濱——發(fā)電設(shè)備、飛機(jī)制造Ha’erbin—generate

device,

plane

manufacturing長(zhǎng)春——汽車(chē)ChangChun—car

and

truck

manufacturing沈陽(yáng)——機(jī)床、重型機(jī)械ShenYang—machine

tool

，heavy,machinery大連——造船、機(jī)械DaLian—Ship

and

heavy

machinery2

有望成為中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)第四極Hoping

to

be the

forth

pole

of

Chinese

economic

growth2.5

中國(guó)工業(yè)化的方向之爭(zhēng)The

debate

on

the

direction

of

Chinese

industrialization

新型工業(yè)化與傳統(tǒng)工業(yè)化之爭(zhēng)The

debate

between

modern

and

traditional

industrialization

是否需要發(fā)展基礎(chǔ)工業(yè)Whether

we

need

develop

basis

industry

現(xiàn)在是否到了重工業(yè)化階段Whether

we

have

arrived

at

the

heavy

industrialization

stage工業(yè)化過(guò)程的三個(gè)階段Three

stages

in

the

process

of

industrialization消費(fèi)品工業(yè)居主導(dǎo)階段，以勞動(dòng)、資源密集的輕工業(yè)產(chǎn)品為主資本品工業(yè)加速發(fā)展階段，輕工業(yè)產(chǎn)品和資本密集產(chǎn)品共同發(fā)展資本品工業(yè)居主導(dǎo)階段，以高加工程度的資本密集、技術(shù)密集產(chǎn)品為主中國(guó)是一個(gè)大國(guó)，應(yīng)該成為美國(guó)那樣的強(qiáng)國(guó)。中國(guó)新型工業(yè)化道路的核心仍然是工業(yè)化，其工業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)應(yīng)該有強(qiáng)大的基礎(chǔ)工業(yè)作為支撐，這是中國(guó)現(xiàn)代化的必然選擇。China

is

a

big

country,

which

should

be

a

strongcountry

just

like

the

US.

The

key

of

the

modernindustrialization

is

still

industrialization,

with

strongbasis

industry

as

the

support,

which

is

the

only

choicefor

Chinese

modernization3

體制改革及成本問(wèn)題The

problems

about

the

ownership

reform

and

its

cost振興東北，體制改革是關(guān)鍵，要建立混合所有制經(jīng)濟(jì)體系

Ownership

reform

is

the

key

point

，the

construction

of

themixture

of

the

ownership

systems

is

to

be

carriedout針對(duì)國(guó)有企業(yè)現(xiàn)狀，體制改革要付“清潔費(fèi)”

the

ownership

reform

should

pay

the

“clean

fee”應(yīng)由中央和地方分擔(dān)的統(tǒng)籌解決方案

The

central

and

the

local

governments

should

share

theresponsibility3

體制改革及成本問(wèn)題The

problems

about

the

ownership

reform

and

its

cost改革成本估算The

assessment

of the

cost

of

the

reform(1)剝離企業(yè)社會(huì)職能成本Splitting

the

social

function

cost

from

the

enterprises改革成本估算The

assessment

of the

cost

of

the

reform(2)

分離大集體企業(yè)成本Separating

the

cost

of

the

collective

enterprises改革成本估算(繼續(xù))The

assessment

of the

cost

of

the

reform職工身份轉(zhuǎn)變（買(mǎi)斷工齡）The

shift

of

the

employees’

identities

(buy

off

the

serviceyears)養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)和失業(yè)保險(xiǎn)、低保補(bǔ)助資金Endowment

insurance

and

unemployment

insurance,

lowestwelfare

subsidy3

體制改革及成本問(wèn)題The

problems

about

the

ownership

reform

and

its

cost遼寧省匡算The

assessment

of the

cost

of

the

reform剝離企業(yè)辦社會(huì)機(jī)構(gòu)(5年)，費(fèi)用80億元；Splitting

the

social

service

from

the

enterprises

(5

years),

whichcosts

8

bn

RMB

(5.4

billion

from

the

central

government

)分離大集體企業(yè)，安置職工(5年)，費(fèi)用100-150億元；Splitting

the

huge

collective

enterprises,

employing

theemployees

(5

years),

which

costs

10-15

billion

RMB遼寧省匡算職工身份轉(zhuǎn)變補(bǔ)償(15萬(wàn)人)，費(fèi)用15億元；The

compensation

for

the

shift

of

the

employees’

identities,which

costs

1.5

billionRMB養(yǎng)老、失業(yè)保險(xiǎn)、低保資金缺口，需33億元The

gap

of

endowment

and

unemployment

insurance,

lowestwelfare

subsidy

needs

3.3

billion

RMB3

體制改革及成本問(wèn)題The

problems

about

the

ownership

and

its

cost經(jīng)費(fèi)解決方案The

method

to

solve

the

financial

problem中央和地方共同承擔(dān)——中央負(fù)責(zé)中直企業(yè)，地方負(fù)責(zé)地方企業(yè)The

central

and

local

governments

share

the

responsibility----the

central

for

the

central

monitored

enterprises

and

the

localfor

the

local

ente