當(dāng)代市場調(diào)研 （原第12版）課件英文第11章　原始數(shù)據(jù)：實(shí)驗(yàn)法和測試市場

MarketingResearchTwelfthEditionCarlD.McDanielandRogerGatesChapter#11PrimaryData:ExperimentationandTestMarketsLearningObjectivesUnderstandthenatureofexperiments.Gaininsightintorequirementsforprovingcausation.Learnabouttheexperimentalsetting.Examineexperimentalvalidity.Comparetypesofexperimentaldesigns.Understandextraneousvariables.Analyzeexperimentaldesign,treatment,andeffects.Examinethelimitationsofexperimentalresearch.Gaininsightintotestmarketing.Copyright?2021JohnWiley&Sons,Inc.11-2WhatIsanExperiment?ExperimentationisoftenpresentedasathirdtypeofdatacollectiontogoalongwithsurveyandobservationAnexperimentisresearchapproachinwhichonevariableismanipulatedandtheeffectonanothervariableisobservedVariablebeingmanipulatediscalledanexperimental,treatment,independent,orexplanatoryvariableThevariablebeingobservedforaneffectiscalledthedependentvariableExperimentalvariablesaretypicallymarketingmixelements11-3Copyright?2021JohnWiley&Sons,Inc.DemonstratingCausationExperimentalresearchisoftenreferredtoascausalresearchItistheonlytypeofresearchthathasthepotentialtodemonstratethatachangeinonevariablecausessomepredictablechangeinanotherTodemonstratethatAlikelycausedB,youmustshow:CorrelationorconcomitantvariationAppropriatetimeorderofoccurrenceEliminationofotherpossiblecausalfactorsCausalrelationshipsarealwaysinferredandneverdemonstratedconclusivelyThreetypesofevidenceareusedtoinfercausalrelationships:correlation,orderofoccurrence,andeliminationofotherpossiblecauses11-4Copyright?2021JohnWiley&Sons,Inc.ConcomitantVariationToprovideevidencethatachangeinAcausedaparticularchangeinB,onemustfirstshowthatthereiscorrelationbetweenAandBThismightbeapositiveoraninverserelationshipAnexampleofpositiveisadvertisingandsalesAnexampleofinverse(negative)salesandpriceTheresearchercantestfortheexistenceanddirectionofstatisticalrelationshipsbymeansofanumberofstatisticalproceduresCorrelationalonedoesnotprovecausation11-5Copyright?2021JohnWiley&Sons,Inc.AppropriateTimeOrderofOccurrenceThesecondrequirementfordemonstratingacausalrelationshipinvolvesshowingthatthereisanappropriatetimeorderofoccurrenceTodemonstratethatAcausedB,youmustbeabletoshowthatAoccurredbeforeBoccurredShowingthatAandBarecorrelatedandthatAoccurredbeforeBstilldoesnotprovideevidencestrongenoughtoconcludecausality11-6Copyright?2021JohnWiley&Sons,Inc.EliminationofOtherPossibleCausalFactorsThemostdifficultthingtodemonstrateinmarketingexperimentsisthatthechangeinBwasnotcausedbysomefactorotherthanAItispossiblethattheobservedchangeinBisduetosomefactororfactorsotherthanAevenifAcamefirstManyexperimentsaredesignedtoeliminateoradjustfortheeffectsofotherpossiblecausalfactors11-7Copyright?2021JohnWiley&Sons,Inc.ExperimentalSettingMostexperimentsinthephysicalsciencesareconductedinalaboratory

settingManymarketingexperimentsarefield

experiments11-8Copyright?2021JohnWiley&Sons,Inc.LaboratoryExperimentsLaboratoryexperimentsareexperimentsconductedinacontrolledsettingThemajoradvantageistheabilitytocontrolextraneouscausalfactorsThiscontrolstrengthensourabilitytoinferthatanobservedchangeinthedependentvariablewascausedbyachangeintheexperimentalvariableBecauseofthis,laboratoryexperimentshavegreaterinternalvalidityInmarketing,theysufferbecausethecontrolledandpossiblysterileenvironmentofthelaboratoryisnotagoodanalogofthemarketplace11-9Copyright?2021JohnWiley&Sons,Inc.FieldExperimentsFieldexperimentsareconductedinanactualmarketenvironmentTestmarketsareagoodexampleFieldexperimentssolvetheproblemoftherealismoftheenvironmentThemajorproblemisthatinthefieldtheresearchercannotcontrolalltheotherfactorsthatmightinfluencethedependentvariable11-10Copyright?2021JohnWiley&Sons,Inc.ExperimentalValidityValidityisdefinedasthedegreetowhichanexperimentactuallymeasureswhattheresearcherwastryingtomeasureInternalvalidityreferstotheextenttowhichcompetingexplanationsfortheexperimentalresultsobservedcanberuledoutRequiresevidencedemonstratingthatvariationinthedependentvariablewascausedbyexposuretothetreatmentvariableExternalvalidityreferstotheextenttowhichthecausalrelationshipsmeasuredinanexperimentcanbegeneralizedtooutsidepersons,settings,andtimesFieldexperiments,generally,offerahigherdegreeofexternalvalidityandalowerdegreeofinternalvaliditythandolaboratoryexperiments11-11Copyright?2021JohnWiley&Sons,Inc.ExperimentalNotationXisusedtoindicatetheexposureofanindividualoragrouptoanexperimentaltreatmentO

isusedtorefertotheprocessoftakingmeasurementsonthetestunitsTestunitsareindividuals,groupsofindividuals,orentitieswhoseresponsetotheexperimentaltreatmentsisbeingtestedDifferenttimeperiodsarerepresentedbythehorizontalarrangementoftheXsandOsO1XO2TheXsandOscanbearrangedverticallytoshowsimultaneousexposureandmeasurementofdifferenttestunitsX1O1

X2O211-12Copyright?2021JohnWiley&Sons,Inc.ExtraneousVariablesTheresearcherneedstobeabletoconcludethattheobservedresponseisduetotheeffectoftheexperimentalvariableTheresearcherneedstodesigntheexperimenttoeliminateasmanyextraneousfactorsaspossibleascausesoftheobservedeffect11-13Copyright?2021JohnWiley&Sons,Inc.ExamplesofExtraneousVariablesHistoryreferstotheintervention,betweenthebeginningandendoftheexperiment,ofanyvariableoreventthatmightaffectthevalueofthedependentvariableMaturationreferstochangesinsubjectsduringthecourseoftheexperimentthatareafunctionoftimeThelongertheexperimentruns,themorelikelyitisthatmaturationwillpresentproblemsInstrumentvariationreferstoanychangesinmeasurementinstrumentsthatmightexplaindifferencesinthemeasurementstakenBigproblemwhenobserversmeasurethedependentvariable11-14Copyright?2021JohnWiley&Sons,Inc.ExamplesofExtraneousVariablesContinuedSelectionbiasiswhensystematicdifferencesbetweenthetestgroupandthecontrolgroupduetoabiasedselectionprocessResearcherscanensureequalityofgroupsthrougheitherrandomizationormatchingRandomizationinvolvesassigningsubjectstotestgroupsandcontrolgroupsatrandomMatchinginvolvesmakingsurethatthereisaone-to-onematchbetweenpeopleorotherunitsinthetestandcontrolgroupsinregardtokeycharacteristicsMortalityreferstothelossoftestunitsduringthecourseofanexperimentTestingeffectsresultfromthefactthattheprocessofexperimentationcanproduceitsowneffectontheresponsesobservedRegressiontothemeanreferstothetendencyofsubjectswithextremebehaviortomovetowardtheaverageforthatbehaviorduringanexperiment11-15Copyright?2021JohnWiley&Sons,Inc.ControllingExtraneousVariablesRandomizationinvolvesrandomlyassigningsubjectstotreatmentconditionssothatextraneouscausalfactorscanreasonablybeassumedtoberepresentedequallyineachtreatmentconditionPhysicalcontrolofextraneouscausalfactorsinvolvessomehowholdingthevaluesorlevelsofextraneousvariablesconstantthroughouttheexperimentDesigncontrolisthecontrolofextraneousfactorsbymeansofspecifictypesofexperimentaldesignsdevelopedforthispurposeStatisticalcontrolcanbeusedtoaccountforextraneouscausalfactorsifthesefactorscanbeidentifiedandmeasuredthroughoutthecourseoftheexperiment11-16Copyright?2021JohnWiley&Sons,Inc.TheFourDesignElementsofExperimentsThetreatment,orexperimental,variable(independentvariable)thatismanipulatedThesubjectswhoparticipateintheexperimentAdependentvariablethatismeasuredSomeplanorprocedurefordealingwithextraneouscausalfactors11-17Copyright?2021JohnWiley&Sons,Inc.ExperimentalDesign,Treatment,andEffectsInanexperimentaldesign,theresearcherhascontroloverandmanipulatesoneormoreindependentvariablesNonexperimentaldesigns,whichinvolvenomanipulation,areoftenreferredtoasexpostfacto(afterthefact)researchThetreatmentvariableistheindependentvariablethatismanipulatedorchangedManipulationreferstoaprocessinwhichtheresearchersetsthelevelsoftheindependentvariabletotestaparticularcausalrelationship11-18Copyright?2021JohnWiley&Sons,Inc.ExperimentalDesign,Treatment,andEffectsContinuedAnexperimentmayincludeatest,ortreatment,group,andacontrolgroupAcontrolgroupisagroupinwhichtheindependentvariableisnotchangedduringthecourseoftheexperimentAtestgroupisagroupthatisexposedtomanipulation(change)oftheindependentvariableExperimentaleffectreferstotheeffectofthetreatmentvariableonthedependentvariableThegoalistodeterminetheeffectofeachtreatmentcondition(leveloftreatmentvariable)onthedependentvariable11-19Copyright?2021JohnWiley&Sons,Inc.LimitationsofExperimentalResearchThecostofexperimentsExperimentscanbeverycostlyinbothmoneyandtimeTheissueofsecurityConductingafieldexperimentinatestmarketinvolvesexposingamarketingplanorsomekeyelementofamarketingplanintheactualmarketplaceInsomeinstances,competitorshaveactually“stolen”conceptsthatwerebeingtestedinthemarketplaceProblemsassociatedwithimplementingexperimentsItcanbeextremelydifficulttoobtaincooperationwithintheorganizationtoexecutecertaintypesofexperiments11-20Copyright?2021JohnWiley&Sons,Inc.TestMarketIssuesContaminationoccurswhenbuyersfromoutsidethetestareacomeintotheareatopurchasetheproductbeingtested,therebydistortingtheresultsoftheexperimentInsomeinstances,testmarketsmaybesodifferent,andthebehaviorofconsumersinthosemarketssodifferentthatarelativelysmallexperimentaleffectisdifficulttodetectInsomesituations,noappropriategeographicareaorgroupofpeoplemaybeavailabletoserveasacontrolgroup11-21Copyright?2021JohnWiley&Sons,Inc.PreexperimentalDesignsPreexperimentaldesignsareresearchdesignsthatdonotincludebasicelementsrequiredintrueexperimentaldesignsTheyareoftendifficulttointerpretbecausetheyofferlittleornocontrolovertheinfluenceofextraneousfactorsTheone-shotcasestudydesigninvolvesexposingtestunitstothetreatmentvariableforsomeperiodoftimeandthentakingameasurementofthedependentvariableX

O1Therearetwobasicweaknessesinthisdesign:NopretestobservationsaremadeofthetestunitsthatwillreceivethetreatmentNocontrolgroupoftestunitsthatdidnotreceivethetreatmentisobserved11-22Copyright?2021JohnWiley&Sons,Inc.PreexperimentalDesignsContinuedTheone-grouppretest–posttestdesignisthedesignemployedmostfrequentlyfortestingchangesinestablishedproductsormarketingstrategiesO1

X

O2ThefactthattheproductwasonthemarketbeforethechangeprovidesthebasisforthepretestmeasurementHistoryisathreattotheinternalvalidityofthisdesignMaturationisanotherthreattothistypeofdesignThisdesignhasonlyonepretestobservation11-23Copyright?2021JohnWiley&Sons,Inc.TrueExperimentalDesignsInatrueexperimentaldesign,theexperimenterrandomlyassignstreatmentstorandomlyselectedtestunitstherandomassignmentoftestunitstotreatmentsisdenotedby(R)RandomizationisanimportantmechanismthatmakestheresultsoftrueexperimentaldesignsmorevalidthanthoseofpreexperimentaldesignsTwoexamplesoftrueexperimentaldesignswillbediscussedinthissection:BeforeandafterwithcontrolgroupdesignAfter-onlywithcontrolgroupdesign11-24Copyright?2021JohnWiley&Sons,Inc.TheBeforeandAfterwithControlGroupDesignThebeforeandafterwithcontrolgroupdesignisatrueexperimentaldesignthatinvolvesrandomassignmentofsubjectsortestunitstoexperimentalandcontrolgroupsandpre-andpost-measurementsofbothgroupsExperimentalgroup: (R)O1

XO2Controlgroup: (R)O3

O4Duetorandomassignment,thetwogroupscanbeconsideredequivalentTherefore,theyarelikelytobesubjecttothesameextraneouscausalfactorsOnlythetreatmentisdifferentMortalityisaproblemifunitsdropoutduringthestudyandtheseunitsdiffersystematicallyfromtheonesthatremainHistorywillbeaprobleminthosesituationswherefactorsotherthanthetreatmentvariableaffectonegrouportheother11-25Copyright?2021JohnWiley&Sons,Inc.TheAfter-OnlywithControlGroupDesignTheafter-onlywithcontrolgroupdesignTrueexperimentaldesignthatinvolvesrandomassignmentofsubjectsortestunitstoexperimentalandcontrolgroups,butnopremeasurementofthedependentvariableExperimentalgroup: (R)XO1Controlgroup: (R)O2Thisrandomassignmentshouldproduceexperimentalandcontrolgroupsthatareapproximatelyequalinregardtothedependentvariable11-26Copyright?2021JohnWiley&Sons,Inc.Quasi-ExperimentsInquasi-experiments,theresearcherlackscompletecontrolovertheschedulingoftreatmentsormustassignrespondentstotreatmentsinanonrandomfashionTheygenerallyaremorefeasibleinfieldsettingsthanaretrueexperimentsExamplesofquasi-experimentsare:Interruptedtime-seriesdesignsMultipletime-seriesdesigns11-27Copyright?2021JohnWiley&Sons,Inc.InterruptedTime-SeriesDesignsInterruptedtime-seriesdesignsinvolverepeatedmeasurementofaneffectbothbeforeandafteratreatmentisintroducedthat“interrupts”previousdatapatternsO1

O2

O3

O4

X

O5

O6

O7

O8AcommonexampleinvolvestheuseofconsumerpurchasepanelsTime-seriesexperimentaldesignshavegreaterinterpretabilitythantheone-grouppretest–posttestdesignbecausethemanymeasurementsallowmoreunderstandingoftheeffectsofextraneousvariablesWeaknesses:InabilitytocontrolhistoryThepossibilityofinteractiveeffectsoftestingandevaluationapprehensionresultingfromtherepeatedmeasurementstakenontestunits11-28Copyright?2021JohnWiley&Sons,Inc.MultipleTime-SeriesDesignThemultipletime-seriesdesignisaninterruptedtime-seriesdesign

withtheadditionofacontrolgroupExperimentalgroup: O1

O2

O3

X

O4

O5

O6Controlgroup: O1

O2

O3

O4

O5

O6Theresearchermusttakecareinselectingthecontrolgroup11-29Copyright?2021JohnWiley&Sons,Inc.StepsfortheDevelopmentofNeworModifiedProductsorServicesIdeagenerationScreeningoftheideasanddevelopmentofconceptsfortestingConcepttestingBusinessanalysisPrototypedevelopmentTestmarketingCommercializationoftheconceptsthatpassalltests11-30Copyright?2021JohnWiley&Sons,Inc.TestMarketsTestmarketingisreal-worldtestingofanewproductorsomeelementofthemarketingmixusinganexperimentalorquasi-experimentaldesignEstimatesofnew-productfailureratesvaryallovertheplaceandrangetomorethan90percentTestmarketingcanreducethatAtest-marketstudyprovidessomethingapproachingareal-worldtestforevaluatingproductsandmarketingprograms11-31Copyright?2021JohnWiley&Sons,Inc.TestMarketsDesignedtoProvidethisInformationEstimatesofmarketshareandvolumeEstimatesoftheeffectthenewproductorstrategyelementwillhaveonsalesofsimilarproductsThisisreferredtoasthecannibalizationrateCharacteristicsofconsumerswhobuytheproductThebehaviorofcompetitorsduringthetest11-32Copyright?2021JohnWiley&Sons,Inc.TypesofTestMarketsTraditionalSimulatedVirtualControlled11-33Copyright?2021JohnWiley&Sons,Inc.TraditionalTestMarketThenewproductisintroducedinoneormoreselectedortestmarketsSalesresultsaretrackedacrossmarketsforanextendedperiodLengthoftimeforatraditionaltestmarketisdependentonseveralfactorsbutespeciallyonthepurchasecyclefortheparticularproductDisadvantages/challenges:SelectinganappropriatecityorcitiesHighcostTippingoffthecompetitionPotentialbranddamageifthereareproblemswiththetestproduct11-34Copyright?2021JohnWiley&Sons,Inc.SimulatedTestMarketSimulatedtestmarketsaresimulationsoftraditionaltestmarketsCanusuallybeconductedmuchmorequicklythananyoftheothertypesTheyhavealowercostTheycanproduceresultsthatarehighlypredictiveofwhatwillactuallyhappen11-35Copyright?2021JohnWiley&Sons,Inc.SimulatedTestMarketProcessConsumersarerecruitedforthetestParticipatesgotoatestfacilityandareashownamediamessageforthetestproductTheymaybequestionedregardingtheirreactionstothemessagesTheyallgotoasimulatedshoppingsituationandgivenanopportunitytochoosethetestproductorothercompetitiveproductsforfreeAftertheyhavehadtimetousetheproducttheyselected,theyarecontactedagaintoevaluateitConsumers’reactionstomessages,productchoices,productevaluationsandotherevaluationsandbehaviorsareusedwithanalyticalmodelstomakeforecastsforthetestproduct11-36Copyright?2021JohnWiley&Sons,Inc.VirtualTestMarketsVirtualtestmarketsorVTMsarethelatestthingsintestmarkets.inthistypeoftesting,consumersarerecruitedtogoonlineandenteravirtualshoppingworldwherearetheyclickthroughavirtualshoppingprocessVTGMsarethelatestthingintestmarketsBenefits:LessexpensiveandmoreflexibleEngagingFastandadaptableEasytoiterateConductedintheconvenienceandrelativecomfortofacentrallylocatedresearchfacilities11-37Copyright?2021JohnWiley&Sons,Inc.ControlledTestMarketsControlledtestmarketsareconductedinmarketswhereresearchfirmshavepanelsofconsumerswhotheycantrackregardingtheirpurchaseofvariousproductsSometimescalledscannerorelectronictestmarketsThesepanelspermitresearcherstoanalyzethecharacteristicsofthoseconsumerswhobuyandthosewhodonotbuythetestproductsThisapproachoffersspeed,lowercostthantraditionaltestmarkets,andsomesecurityregardingthemarketingstrategyThemajorcriticismofthisapproachisthatwhatsomeargueisitsunrepresentativesampling11-38Copyright?2021JohnWiley&Sons,Inc.DecisiontoConductTestMarketingBenefits:Thetestmarketprovidesavehiclebywhichthefirmcanobtaingoodestimatesofsalespotentialforanewproductunderrealisticorsemi-realisticmarketconditionsT