UBS Fixed Income-Global Inflation Strategy -Global Inflation Monday- Gale-此為英文文檔

ab

GlobalResearchandEvidenceLab6May2024

GlobalInflationStrategy

GlobalInflationMonday

Badbetaweekbutnoturnintrend

Lastweekwasbad,butnotpivotal,forbreakevens.Doubtcreptbackintoanythinginflation-linkedlastweek.Oildidmostofthedamage.Datadidsomeviathenominal-realbeta.Butrisksentimentelsewherestabilised.The'dovish'Fed,higherpricespaidinsurveys,decentgrowthandsurveydataoutsidetheUSallmakethislooklikeadiptobebought,ifyouhavedrypowdertodoso.TIPSbreakevensat2.35%acrossthecurvearecheap:minusaPCE-CPIbasisthey'resub-target…doesthatmakesenseinthisenvironment?Addinpositivecarrythat'salreadyinthebagandthatwhichwillbesoonenough,andbreakevenslookbetterstill.That'sforTIPS,butthesameappliesforEurolinkers.AsanH2recoverytrade,long€ibreakevenslooksagoodone.

ThetideisgoingoutforRPIbreakevens.RPIbreakevensdidworstofall.Theywereexpensive,sowewon'targuewiththat.WhenRPIcomesinwellbelow4%forAprilandstaysthere,willitbeliketheebbtiderevealingvaluationsthatwerenakedallalong?That'stherisk,wethink.But73sthisweekshouldbesafe.It'salongtimesince50ywereavailableandyieldsareclosetohighs.

Figure1:ViewSummary

TraderecommendationsaretrackedinFigure14:Tradeidearecord

viewexpressions

InterestRates

Global

GilesGale

Strategistgiles.gale@+44-20-79016066

MichaelCloherty

Strategist

mike.cloherty@+1-203-7194281

ReinoutDeBock

Strategist

reinout.de-bock@+44-20-75670152

EmmanouilKarimalis

Strategist

emmanouil.karimalis@+44-20-75678000

GiuliaSpecchia

Strategist

giulia.specchia@+61-29-3242437

US

Breakeven

Long

-Long30yTIPSbreakeven

Realrate

Longfrontend

Realratesteepening

-Long2yTIPSrealrate

EuroArea

Breakeven

Long

-Long5y

Realrate

Longfrontend

Steepening/shortvsothercurrencies

-Steepener2y3yvs20y10y(orsimilarbroadsteepener)

-Short10y20yvsGBP

Countries

LongPeriphery

-Spain15yvsFranceinbreakevenoriota(orrealyield)

UK

Breakeven

Realrate

Shortfrontend

Steepening

-10y/20y20ysteepener

Source:UBS

Breaks'bleakweek

Doubtsrushbackintoinflationsentiment

Lastweekwasabadoneforanythinglinkedtoinflationsentiment.Oilwasamain

driver:inventories,MiddleEastnon-escalation,highprices.Butcommoditieswere

broadlylower,includinggold.Figure2illustrates.

Breakevensarecheapandreasonstosellareweak

Butfundamentallywestillfeelthisisacorrectionthathaslittlereasontofollowthrough.

OPECinfourweeksiswelltimedtoaddressfurtherweaknessbyextendingcutsinH2if

necessary.Risksentimentinstocksandcredithavestabilised,helpedbytheFedand

earnings.Demand-cycledatawasgoodenoughglobally,althoughUSdatahasbeenless

impressiveandUSlabourmarketmomentumwasbroughtintodoubtonFriday.Weset

thatalongsideverylowclaims,ISMandPMIpricespaid,theFed'sweeklyactivityindex.

(ThisweekasanexceptionweignoreourUS5y5ybreakevenmodelthatwarnsusthat

ThisreporthasbeenpreparedbyUBSAGLondonBranch.ANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDREQUIREDDISCLOSURES,includinginformationontheQuantitativeResearchReviewpublishedbyUBS,beginonpage14.

GlobalInflationStrategy6May2024ab3

(Memo:Positivecarryisalreadybakedintotheinflationlag,butcomingprintsare

certainenoughtocontrolfortoo.Butpricingforwardtoaseasonalhighpointwill

alwaystendtogeneratealowbreakeven,seasonaladjustmentinadditiontoforward

pricingisimportanttogeta'clean'readoninflationbreakevensbeyondwhatever

horizonwefeeltobeforecastable.)

Theweakestlink?UKlinkers

Wewere,however,pleasedtoseethatunderperformancewasgreatestinRPI,foronce.

Thatshouldcontinue.Valuationsareonething.ButRPIy/yshouldalsofallwellbelow

breakevenswhenwe'retoldtheAprilnumberintwoweeks.Itshouldthencontinueto

fallinfollowingmonths.Thatshouldhelptodrivehomethepointonvaluations.They/y

doesn’tdefinetherateofcarry,butitcanaffecthowitisperceived.

Rollsandcarry(i).Rollsimproveapparentvaluations

Muchofthemovelowerininflationswapswasduetobigbasemonthrolls,particularly

inFranceandUKRPI.InRPIforexample,therollinspot10yshouldhavebeenaround

-2.25bp.Butrollsfarfromexplainthewholemove,anddropsinforwardslike5y5y

shouldbeclean.

Rollsandcarry(ii).Positivecarryshouldalsostillsupportbreakevens

Whatdoesthenewmonth,andtherestofspringmeanforcarry?Bondsaccruingthe

Feb-Marm/mwillalldowell(OATileast).Takingthemarketfixings,eurolinkerswill

continuetocarrywellintothesummer.UKTIwillcarrywelluntilAugust.TIPScarrywill

begooduntilSeptember.Thereisaweaktendencyforshort-endinflationlinkedto

performwellthroughperiodsofstrongcarry,sothisshouldbekeptinmind.Figure5

showsthepicture.

Figure4:1-3yTIPSbreakeventotalreturnperformanceandcarry

Source:UBS,Bloomberg

Figure5:Positivecarryahead…Approximatemonthlycarryfor5ylinkersinbprunning,assumingfixingsrealisevsfunding

Source:UBS,Bloomberg

Tradeideareview

5s10seurorealsteepeners

Lastweekwerecommendedeurorealratesteepenersin5s10s.Thatperformedinthe

nominalrallyonFriday,butnotaswellasitmighthavedoneandtheoil-ledsteepening

inthebreakevencurveovertheweekwasunhelpful.

Westillthinkthatthecurveistooflatandthatmore'premium'willbebuiltbackintothe

curve.2s5shasbeensteepeningrelativetoitstrendforthelevelofratesasratecut

expectationshavebeenremovedglobally.Underperformanceof5y'sislinkedtosoft-vs-

hardlandingoptimismanditisrightthatthisshouldhavesteepened.5s10s,however,

shouldcomeundermorepressure.Perhapstheclearestwaytoseethisisthat5y5yeuros

havebarelyrisenintheQ1sell-off.

GlobalInflationStrategy6May2024ab4

Butwhat,specifically,mightpushthecurvehigherotherthaninvestorsnoticinghowflat

itis?Bondsupplynormallypicksupoverthenexttwomonths.Wedon'tthinkthatthe

summerwillbeaboutECBratecutanticipationbecauseJulyisunlikelyandtherestof

theyearispriced.WethinkH2recoveryisanunderpricedriskthatmaystartto

materialiseovertherestofQ2.Andfinally,ifyoucanwait(orifthemarketanticipatesit)

Septembersupplyhasbeenabearishcatalystinrecentyears(Figure7).

Wealsolikelongendsteepenersbecausewethinkpensionsdemandismaturing.We

stillconsiderthisanimportanttheme-perhapsoneofthemostimportantthemes.But

tactically5s10slooksmorecompellinginthecharts.Thelongendhasbeenwell

supportedrecently,soit'sreasonableforustobecautious.Although30yspreadshave

beenstabilising,theotherbellwetherforpensionsactivity,LCH-Eurexbasis,hasbeen

widening.

Figure6:1y1yvs5s10sEURswaps

Source:UBS,Bloomberg

Figure7:Backtoschool,sellbunds

Source:Bloomberg

Stopped.EurovsUKrealratespreadtightening

OurrecommendationtobelongUKrealratesagainsteurosinthelongend(10y20y)has

runoutofroad.Levelsnowlookverycompelling,notforthefirsttime.Weregretthat

wemustretreatandrecapacitate,evenifthisisonetore-entereventually.Thechartisin

Figure8tocontemplate.

Morecautiouson€ibreakevenflattenersvslongs

EURibreakevenflattenershavebeenachallengehoweveraslongendforwardshave

driftedhigherinamannerthatsuggestsstructuraldemandisstilltobereckonedwith.It

isn'tlivret-A,itseems(Figure9)butweareawareofsomepensions-relateddemandand

it'shardtoknowhowfartoextrapolate.Theredoesseemtobesomesensitivityto

supplyevents,judgingbypriceactionaroundsupplyinMarchandApril,butongoing

supplymightnotbeverysubstantialthisquarter.Wethereforedialbackourconviction

alittlehereontheflattenercomparedtojustbeingoutrightlongshorterdated

breakevens.

GlobalInflationStrategy6May2024ab5

Figure8:UK10y20yrealratesvsEUR

Source:UBS,Bloomberg

LevelsshowninsoniavsEuribor6mswapsandZCILS

Figure9:Livret-Aandrelatedpassbookinflows,andFrenchy/yinflation

Source:CaissedesDepots,Bloomberg,UBS

Longtimeforthelongend:UKIL73auctionthisweek

TheDMOhasbeencarefulaboutthelongend,especiallyinlinkers,forgoodreason.But

themarketlastsawultrasin2022.

Long-endRPIforwardshavebeencheapeningonthecurveandlookattractive.Real

rateslookcorrespondinglyattractive.2073sat1.1%arenotfarfromtheirbestlevels.

Onassetswaplinkershavecheapenedalittlefromlevelsattheendoflastmonth,and

the73shaveunderperformedmarginallyonthecurve(Figure10.)Historicallythereisa

weaktrendforlong-endlinkerstoperformwellthroughsupplyevents(Figure11).This

auctionshouldgowell.

AperipheraltopicthatmayhavesomerelevanceisthesignsfromtheBoE'sSTR

allocationsthatdesiredreservesarehigh.Wearenotentirelyconvinced(thatwillbe

somethingtoreturnto)butmanyclearlybelievethattheendofQTissomethingwecan

starttotalkaboutseriouslyintheUK.Ifso,sentimentonUKrealrateshassomeroomto

improve.Notbeforetime.

Figure10:UKLinkerz-spreads

Source:Bloomberg,UBS

Figure11:Breakevenperformance(includingcarry)for25y+linkersupplyevents

Source:UBS,Bloomberg

Performanceinbprunningadjustedforcarry.x-axisisdaysbefore/afterevent.Yellowline=median.Blueline=Mean.Shadedrangesare10-90and25-75quantileranges.Prior40linkersupplyeventsforover25-yearlinkers.

GlobalInflationStrategy6May2024ab6

InflationreadingfromUBSthisweek

EuroCPIAprilreview

SwissCPIAprilreview

Economicschartbook,inflationfocus

USECIQ1review

Figure12:Rich-Cheapininterestrateandinflationswaps

Source:UBS,Bloomberg

bpresiduals.+vefiguresindicate'cheap'interestratesand'rich'inflationswaps

Figure13:Theinflationsentimentscorecard

momentum:z-scoreratios

IndicatorRegionQuickview12mz-score1w/3m1m/6m3m/24m

Commodities

Brent

CRBIndustrial

Food

Gasoline

NatGas

All

All

All

US(rbob)

US(pump)

EU

US

EU

UK

0.1

0.4

-0.2

0.3

0.5

1.0

-0.7

-0.4

-0.5

0.4

1.1

1.0

0.5

1.2

1.6

1.0

0.9

0.7

1.5

1.8

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.7

-0.9

-0.4

-0.4

-0.2

-0.6

-1.1

-0.2

-0.6

-0.3

-1.0

-0.8

-0.8

Risk

Stocks

S&P500

Eurostox50

MSCIEM

1.5

1.5

1.8

-0.3

0.3

1.0

0.8

1.1

1.0

1.9

1.7

1.0

Credit(spread)USBBB

-1.5

-1.4

-1.0

-1.7

EU(xover)

-1.3

0.4

-0.4

-1.4

Fundamentalsentiment

Econsurprises

Fedweeklyindex

US

EU

UK

China

US

-2.4

0.4

-0.7

0.6

1.0

-1.4

-2.0

0.6

0.4

1.7

-1.6

0.1

1.4

1.1

-0.2

-0.5

0.9

-0.8

0.2

-0.3

Breakeven

1y1yUS

0.7

1.4

1.7

-0.6

1y1yEU

-0.7

1.3

0.5

-1.0

1y1yUK

0.2

0.9

1.7

0.1

5y5yUS

0.5

1.5

0.9

0.2

5y5yEU

-0.5

1.7

0.7

-0.3

5y5yUK

-0.7

0.8

0.8

-0.9

Source:UBS,Bloomberg

Red=risk/breakevenpositive,Green=risk/breakevennegative

Source:UBS,Bloomberg

GlobalInflationStrategy6May2024ab7

GlobalInflationStrategy6May2024ab8

Tradeidearecordandchangesthisweek

.Stopped:UK10y20yrealratevsEUR

Figure14:Tradeidearecord

Expression

Open

Published

Closed

Entry

Target

Stop

Today

P&L

Long2yTIPS(Oct-26)

12-Apr-24

2.11

1.75

2.35

2.07

10%ofprofit

Long30yTIPSbreakeven

12-Apr-24

2.33

2.55

2.15

2.35

13%ofprofit

LongSPGBei30breakeven

12-Apr-24

2.21

2.18

1.95

2.19

67%ofprofit

UKshort10yvs20y20yRPI

11-Mar-24

-73.0bp

0bp

-94bp

-85bp

58%ofloss

5s10sEURrealratesteepener

28-Apr-24

-16.0bp

-6bp

-20bp

-18bp

51%ofloss

LongBTPeiMay26outright

26-Feb-24

1.495%

1.100%

1.650%

1.422%

14%ofprofit

EUR.2s30sHICPxflattener

08-Jan-24

46.8bp

18.8bp

53.8bp

51.8bp

71%ofloss

EUR.2y3yvs10y20yrealratesteepener

11-Mar-24

-65.9bp

0.0bp

-85.0bp

-78.9bp

68%ofloss

EUR.LongEURi-FRFi10yspread

Closed

08-Jan-24

15.5bp

0.0bp

20.0bp

11.0bp

29%ofprofit

RecUK10y20yrealvsEUR

11-Mar-24

03-May-24

109.0bp

60bp

135bp

135bp

100%ofloss

US.Long2yrealrates

08-Jan-24

15-Apr-24

2.13

1.25

2.35

2.20

34%ofloss

US.Long2yvsCPI1:3

08-Jan-24

15-Apr-24

2.15

4

1.5

2.99

45%ofprofit

1y1y/2y3yEURiflattenervsUSDisteepener

26-Feb-24

15-Apr-24

1.5bp

15.0bp

-5.0bp

-5.0bp

100%ofloss

UK.5yRPIvsnominal.4:1IE01:PV01

22-Jan-24

08-Apr-24

1103bp

1200bp

1050bp

1174bp

73%ofprofit

Long30yTIPSbreakevensvsUK

04-Mar-24

08-Apr-24

-98.0bp

-88.0bp

-105.0bp

-95.3bp

27%ofprofit

US.5s10sCPIflattener.

05-Feb-24

04-Mar-24

13.5bp

5.0bp

18.0bp

6.1bp

88%ofprofit

Long1y1yEURivsUSDi

26-Feb-24

04-Mar-24

33.5bp

22.0bp

40.0bp

23.2bp

89%ofprofit

Long5yUSCPIvs5yUKRPI

05-Feb-24

26-Mar-24

148.8bp

137.0bp

157.0bp

137.0bp

100%ofprofit

EUR.Long2yHICPx

08-Jan-24

15-Jan-24

1.57

1.72

1.5

1.72

100%ofprofit

GBP.Long20yRPIvs30yUSCPI

14-Dec-23

15-Jan-24

92.0bp

115.0bp

85.0bp

85.0bp

100%ofloss

10y20yUKlinkersvsTIPS

22-Jan-24

05-Feb-24

-30.0bp

-40.0bp

-25.0bp

-30.7bp

7%ofprofit

Long15y15yUKvsUS(nominalIRS)

05-Feb-24

12-Feb-24

61.8bp

45.0bp

70.0bp

52.5bp

55%ofprofit

LongEURi5y5yvsUSDi5y5y

22-Jan-24

12-Feb-24

40.0bp

25.0bp

47.0bp

29.3bp

72%ofprofit

UKlong5y5yvs10y20yRPI

12-Feb-24

11-Mar-24

32.5bp

40bp

27bp

36bp

45%ofprofit

Source:UBS,Bloomberg.

Note:Pastperformanceisnotindicativeoffutureresults.

Thisspreadsheetisarecordofcurrentandhistoricaltraderecommendationsfrompublishedresearchasof26thApril2024.

Arecordofourcurrentand12monthhistoricalRatestraderecommendationsisavailableonUBSNeoorviayourUBSsalesrepresentative.

5.5%

5.0%

4.5%

4.0%

3.5%

3.0%

Projectedpathsforinflation

Figure15:Market-impliedpathsfory/yinflation

4.0%

3.5%

3.0%

2.5%

2.0%

1.5%

USCPIU

FrenchCPIx

UKRPI

EuroAreaHICPx

05101520253035404550

Source:UBS,Bloomberg

Figure16:Realshortrate(frontenddetail)

4.5%

4.0%

3.5%

3.0%

2.5%

2.0%

1.5%

1.0%

0.5%

0.0%

Ma

Mar-25Mar-26Mar-27

EURGBP

Source:UBS,ECB,Bloomberg.Pathsof3mRFRslessmarketprojectionforleadingy/yinflation(=CPI[t+12]/CPI[t]-1wheret).

Figure18:EuroAreaex-tobaccoHICP

6.0%

2.5%

2.0%

1.5%

Jun23Dec23Jun24Dec24Jun25

historicUBSUBS(core)marketECBHICP(core)ECBHICP

Source:UBSe,ECB,Bloomberg

Figure17:USCPI-u

4.0%

3.8%

3.6%

3.4%

3.2%

3.0%

2.8%

2.6%

2.4%

2.2%

2.0%

Jun23

Jun24

Dec23

Jun25

Dec24

historicUBSUBS(core)marketFed(PCE)

Source:UBSe,BoE,Bloomberg

Figure19:UKRPI

12.0%

10.0%

8.0%

6.0%

4.0%

2.0%

0.0%

Jun23Dec23Jun24Dec24Jun25

historicUBSmarketBOE(CPI)

Source:UBSe,ECB,Bloomberg

GlobalInflationStrategy6May2024ab9

GlobalInflationStrategy6May2024ab10

265bp260bp255bp250bp245bp240bp235bp230bp225bp220bp

35bp

30bp

25bp

20bp

15bp

10bp

5bp

0bp

2.75%

SArealyield,fwd06-Aug-24 yield

SAry

2.50%

2.25%

2.00%

TIPS

Figure20:Breakeveninflation,spotand3mforward,SA

SAb/e,fwd06-Aug-24SAb/e

SAb/evsfitted

USCPIUZCswaps

051015202530

yearstomaturity

Source:UBS,Bloomberg

Figure22:TIPSiota(=ILS-bondbreakeven)

trueiota

mktiota

051015202530

yearstomaturity

Source:UBS,Bloomberg

'Market'iota=TIPSzspread-comparatorzspread

'True'iota=TIPSzspreadagainstfittedtreasuryzeroscurve

Figure21:Realyields,spotand3mforward,SA

051015202530

yearstomaturity

Source:UBS,Bloomberg

GlobalInflationStrategy6May2024ab11

(Linkersche

aper)

FrFr——G-Sp

ance-HICPx

ance-FrCPIxermany-HICPxain-HICPx

Ita

ly-HICPx

(Linkersmo

reexpensive

)

40bp35bp30bp25bp20bp15bp10bp 5bp 0bp-5bp

-10bp

G

HICPx

It

2.5%

x

2.0%

1.5%

1.0%

0.5%

0.0%

(Linkersche

aper)

●Fr Fr

●G

ance-HICPx

ance-FrCPIxermany-HICPx

●Sp .Ita

ain-HICPx

ly-HICPx

(Linkersmo

reexpensive

)

●Fr

EuroAreaLinkers

Figure23:Breakeveninflation,spot,SA

(Linkersmo

reexpensive

)

ance-HICPx

.Fr

●Ge

ance-FrCPIxrmany-HICPx

(Linkersche

aper)

●Sp .Ita

ain-FrCPI

ly-HICPx

260bp

250bp

240bp

230bp

220bp

210bp

200bp

190bp

180bp

170bp

05101520253035

yearstomaturity

Source:UBS,Bloomberg

BreakevensexpressedasSAyieldspreadstofittedissuercurves

Figure25:Realyields,spot,SA

2.5%

2.0%

1.5%

1.0%

0.5%

0.0%

05101520253035

yearstomaturity

Source:UBS,Bloomberg

Figure27:Marketiota(=ILS-bondbreakeven)

France-HICPx

(Linkersche

aper)

F

rance-FrCPIxermany-HICPx

S

pain-HICPx

aly-

(Linkersmo

reexpensive

)

05101520253035

yearstomaturity

Source:UBS,Bloomberg

'Market'iota=TIPSzspread-comparatorzspread

Figure24:Breakeveninflation,3mforward,SA

260bp250bp240bp230bp220bp210bp200bp190bp180bp

170bp

Px

(Linkersmo

reexpensive

)

France-HICPx

France-FrCPIx

Germany-HIC

(Linkersche

aper)

Spain-HICPxItaly-HICPx

05101520253035

yearstomaturity

Source:UBS,Bloomberg

BreakevensexpressedasSAyieldspreadstofittedissuercurves

Figure26:Realyields,3mforward,SA

-—France-HICPx

(Linkersche

aper)

-—S

I

France-FrCPIxGermany-HICP

pain-HICPxHICPx

taly-

(Linkersmo

reexpensive

)

05101520253035

yearstomaturity

Source:UBS,Bloomberg

Figure28:'True'iota(=ILS-bondbreakeven)

35bp

30bp

25bp

20bp

15bp

10bp

5bp

0bp

-5bp

05101520253035

yearstomaturity

Source:UBS,Bloomberg

'True'iota=TIPSzspreadagainstfittedtreasuryzeroscurve

GlobalInflationStrategy6May2024ab12

420bp

400bp

380bp

360bp

340bp

320bp

300bp

35bp30bp25bp20bp15bp10bp 5bp 0bp -5bp-10bp

-15bp

UKLinkers

Figure29:BreakevensandRPIzerocouponswaps

Linkers

moreexp

ensive

breakevSAb/e,fSAb/ev

en

wd06-Ausfitted

g-24

Linkers

cheaper

05101520253035404550

yearstomaturity

Source:UBS,Bloomberg

Figure31:Iota(=ILS-bondbreakeven)

Linkersbreakevenscheaper,comparedtoinflationswaps

Marketiota'True'iota

Linkerbreakevensmoreexpensive,comparedtoinflationswaps

05101520253035404550

yearstomaturity

Source:UBS,Bloomberg

'Market'iota=TIPSzspread-comparatorzspread

'True'iota=TIPSzspreadagainstfittedtreasuryzeroscurve

Figure30:Realyields,spot,seasonallyadjustedspotand3mforward,SA

1.60%

1.40%

1.20%

1.00%

0.80%

0.60%

0.40%

0.20%

0.00%

Linkerscheaper

NSArealyield,spot

SArealyield,fwd06-Aug-24SArealyield,spot

Conventionalyield,rhs

Linkersmoreexpensive

4.90

4.70

4.50

4.30

4.10

3.90

3.70

3.50

01020304050

yearstomaturity

Source:UBS,Bloomberg

GlobalInflationStrategy6May2024ab13

ValuationMethodandRiskStatement

Risksofmulti-assetinvestingincludebutarenotlimitedtomarketrisk,creditrisk,interestrate

risk,andforeignexchangerisk.Correlationsofreturnsamongdifferentassetclassesmay

deviatefromhistoricalpatterns.Geopoliticaleventsandpolicyshocksposerisksthatcan

reduceassetreturns.Valuationsmaybeadverselyaffectedduringtimesofhighmarket

volatility,thinliquidity,andeconomicdislocation.Alloptionrecommendationsare‘over-the-

counter’.

GlobalInflationStrategy6May2024ab14

RequiredDisclosures

ThisdocumenthasbeenpreparedbyUBSAGLondonBranch,anaffiliateofUBSAG.UBSAG,itssubsidiaries,branchesandaffiliates,includingCreditSuisseAGanditssubsidiaries,branchesandaffiliatesarereferredtohereinas"UBS".

ForinformationonthewaysinwhichUBSmanagesconflictsandmaintainsindependenceofitsUBSGlobalResearchproduct;historicalperformanceinformation;certainadditionaldisclosuresconcerningUBSGlobalResearchrecommendations;andtermsandconditionsforcertainthirdpartydatausedinresearchreport,pleasevisit

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.Unlessotherwiseindicated,informationanddatainthisreportarebasedoncompanydisclosuresincludingbutnotlimitedtoannual,interim,quarterlyreportsandothercompanyannouncements.Thefigurescontainedinperformancechartsrefertothepast;pastperformanceisnotareliableindicatoroffutureresults.Additionalinformationwillbemadeavailableuponrequest.UBSSecuritiesCo.LimitedislicensedtoconductsecuritiesinvestmentconsultancybusinessesbytheChinaSecuritiesRegulatoryCommission.UBSactsormayactasprincipalinthedebtsecurities(orinrelatedderivatives)thatmaybethesubjectofthisreport.Thisrecommendationwasfinalizedon:06May202412:28AMGMT.UBShasdesignatedcertainUBSGlobalResearchdepartmentmembersasDerivativesResearchAnalystswherethosedepartmentmemberspublishresearchprincipallyontheanalysisofthepriceormarketforaderivative,andprovideinformationreasonablysufficientuponwhichtobaseadecisiontoenterintoaderivativestransaction.WhereDerivativesResearchAnalystsco-authorresearchreportswithEquityResearchAnalystsorEconomists,theDerivativesResearchAnalystisresponsibleforthederivativesinvestmentviews,forecasts,and/orrecommendations.QuantitativeResearchReview:UBSGlobalResearchpublishesaquantitativeassessmentofitsanalysts'responsestocertainquestionsaboutthelikelihoodofanoccurrenceofanumberofshorttermfactorsinaproductknownasthe'QuantitativeResearchReview'.Viewscontainedinthisassessmentonaparticularstockreflectonlytheviewsonthoseshorttermfactorswhichareadifferenttimeframetothe12-monthtimeframereflectedinanyequityratingsetoutinthisnote.Forthelatestresponses,pleaseseetheQuantitativeResearchReviewAddendumatthebackofthisreport,whereapplicable.Forpreviousresponsespleasemakereferenceto(i)previousUBSGlobalResearchreports;and(ii)wherenoapplicableresearchreportwaspublishedthatmonth,theQuantitativeResearchReviewwhichcanbefoundat

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