高盛-拼多多-temu進(jìn)展跟蹤及1q回顧

Neutral

_

16May2024|10:08AMHKT

PDDHoldings(PDD)

Temuprogresscheck&1Qpreview:Expectsolid1QtoplineandnarrowerTemulosses;yetuncertaintieslingeroncompetition;Neutral

PDD12mPriceTarget:$145.00Price:$141.30Upside:2.6%

WeseeapotentialsimilarsetupforPDD’supcoming1Qresultscomparedwithlastquarter,withsolidonlinemarketingrevenues(GSe:+46%yoyvs.V.A.consensusof+40%)andagroupEBIT

beat(GSe:Rmb18bnvs.V.A.consensusofRmb15bn)on

narrower-than-StreetexpectedTemulossesonthebackofreportedTemu’ssemi-entrustedmodelrolloutintheUS,aswellasourlatestTemuprogresschecks.However,weexpectthemarkettocontinuetohaveforward-lookingconcerns,duetoanintensifyingdomesticcompetitivelandscape.Wecontinuetoexpectslower-than-Street

domestictakerateexpansionpaceaheadforPDD,onthebackofAlibaba’sreignitedGMVgrowth(double-digitGMVgrowthat

Taobao-Tmall)andincreaseinsupplyofROI-basedadinventoryover2024-25(seeourAlibabareview),whereTaobaohasbeenre-gainingsomeconsumermindshareasthemostpricecompetitiveplatform(basedonourpricechecks).Meanwhile,weexpectTemu’s1Qandfullyearlossestosigni?cantlynarrow(atamuchsmallerTemu

1Q24EEBITlossofRmb4.9bnthanV.A.consensusatRmb7.7bn)on

thebackofasizableshiftfromfully-entrustedtosemi-entrusted

modelinUS(whereTemunolongertakescareoflogistics).WhilePDDhasalreadyunderperformedvs.peersyear-to-date(-3%

year-to-datevs.Alibaba+8%/KWEB+20%),givenstilllimited

investorappetiteinvaluingPDD’sTemufullbusinesspotentialon

geopoliticaluncertaintiesandriskstodomestictakerates/growthoverrestof2024-25inanincreasinglyzero-sumChinaeCommercemarket,wecontinuetoholdourout-of-consensusNeutralviewonPDDwitharevisedSOTP-based,12-monthTPofUS$145ona

sector-relativebasis(fromUS$143on?ne-tunedestimates,wherewecontinuetovaluethedomesticplatformata13XNOPAT,and

Temu’snon-USbusiness).Notethatmostinvestorscontinueto

benchmarkPDD’smarketcapwithAlibaba(bothatUS$190-200bn,asAlibaba’sdomesticGMVscaleisstillat1.6-1.7Xscalethathas

RonaldKeung,CFA

+852-2978-0856|ronald.keung@

GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.

DavidMa

+852-2978-0822|david.ma@

GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.

KeyData

Marketcap:$195.4bn

Enterprisevalue:$153.8bn

3mADTV:$1.1bn

china

chinaEcommerce&Logistics

M&ARank:3

Leasesincl.innetdebt&EV?:No

GSForecast

12/2312/24E12/25E12/26E

Revenue（Rmbmn）New

247,639.1

398,758.7

506,685.2

625,199.2

Revenue(Rmbmn)Old

247,639.1

396,564.1

504,142.9

622,381.6

EBITDA(Rmbmn)

66,563.6

103,115.2

150,899.9

187,346.7

EPS（Rmb）New

46.36

64.58

92.92

109.41

EPS(Rmb)Old

46.36

64.54

92.49

108.63

P/E(X)

14.0

15.8

11.0

9.3

P/B(X)

5.1

5.4

3.7

2.7

Dividendyield(%)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

CROCI(%)

287.3

699.3

(1,812.8)

(741.3)

12/231/24E3/24E6/24E

EPS(Rmb)17.3211.8815.3217.87

GSFactorPro?le

Growth

FinancialReturns

Multiple

Integrated

Percentile20th40th60th80th100th

PDDrelativetoAsiaex.JapanCoverage

PDDrelativetoChinaEcommerce&Logistics

Source:Companydata,GoldmanSachsResearchestimates.

Seedisclosuresfordetails.

GoldmanSachsdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,

investorsshouldbeawarethatthe?rmmayhaveacon?ictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthis

report.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.ForRegACcerti?cationandotherimportantdisclosures,seetheDisclosureAppendix,orgoto

/research/hedge.html.Analystsemployedbynon-USaf?liatesarenotregistered/quali?edasresearchanalystswithFINRAintheU.S.

_

GoldmanSachs

PDDHoldings(PDD)

RatingsinceMar11,2024

Neutral

Ratios&Valuation

P/E(X)

P/B(X)

FCFyield(%)

EV/EBITDAR(X)

EV/EBITDA(excl.leases)(X)

CROCI(%)

ROE(%)

Netdebt/equity(%)

Netdebt/equity(excl.leases)(%)Interestcover(X)

Daysinventoryoutst,sales

Receivabledays

Dayspayableoutstanding

DuPontROE(%)

Turnover(X)

Leverage(X)

Grosscashinvested(excash)(Rmb)Averagecapitalemployed(Rmb)

BVPS(Rmb)

12/23

14.0

5.1

10.6

10.1

10.1

287.3

44.5

(112.9)

(112.9)

--

--

3.3

281.4

36.3

0.7

1.9

27,171.7

45,466.1

127.85

12/24E

15.8 5.4 8.9 10.7 10.7699.3 40.9(105.9)(105.9)

--

--

2.6223.834.00.8

1.7

(806.1)

50,952.1

190.02

12/25E

11.03.710.96.5

6.5

(1,812.8) 39.9(105.6)(105.6)

--

--

1.5227.933.30.8

1.5

(14,307.1)29,071.7279.37

12/26E

9.3 2.7 12.8 4.4 4.4(741.3) 33.3(106.2)(106.2)

--

--

1.5197.528.50.8

1.4

(30,026.7)13,242.2383.52

Growth&Margins(%)

Totalrevenuegrowth

EBITDAgrowth

EPSgrowth

DPSgrowth

EBITmargin

EBITDAmargin

Netincomemargin

12/23

89.765.068.5NM26.626.9

27.4

12/24E

61.0

54.9

39.3

NM

25.5

25.9

24.2

12/25E

27.1

46.3

43.9

NM

29.5

29.8

27.9

12/26E

23.424.217.7NM29.830.0

27.1

PricePerformance

PDD($)NASDAQComposite

17517,000

15016,000

12515,000

10014,000

7513,000

5012,000

Jul-23

Oct-23

Absolute

Rel.日to日the日NASDAQ日Composite

Jan-24

3m

4.4%

0.6%

Apr-24

6m

23.5%

5.5%

12m

113.9%

60.2%

Source:FactSet.Priceasof15May2024close.

PDDHoldings(PDD)

IncomeStatement(Rmbmn)

Totalrevenue

costofgoodssold

SG&A

R&D

otheroperatinginc./（exp.）

EBITDA

Depreciation&amortization

EBIT

Netinterestinc./（exp.）

lncome/（loss）fromassociates

Pre-taxprofit

provisionfortaxes

Minorityinterest

preferreddividends

Netinc.（pre-exceptionaIs）

post-taxexceptionals

Netinc.（post-exceptionaIs）

EPS（basic,pre-except）（Rmb）

EPS（diIuted,pre-except）（Rmb）EPS（basic,post-except）（Rmb）EPS（diIuted,post-except）（Rmb）

DpS（Rmb）

Div.payoutratio（%）

12/23

247,639.1（91,591.1）（81,621.1）（8,649.5）

--

66,563.6

（786.2）

65,777.4

10,194.1

--

79,749.0

（11,849.9）

--

--

67,899.1

（7,078.8）

60,820.350.1546.3644.3440.99

--

0.0

12/24E

398,758.7（143,705.0）（135,330.2）（18,000.6）

--

103,115.2

（1,392.3）

101,722.9

6,453.6

--

111,129.1

（14,738.7）

--

--

96,390.4

（13,858.3）

82,532.269.8664.5859.8155.29

--

0.0

12/25E

506,685.2（166,218.1）（163,013.3）（27,794.8）

--

150,899.9

（1,240.9）

149,659.0

6,310.4

--

158,922.0

（17,563.5）

--

--

141,358.5

（15,904.8）

125,453.7100.5192.9289.2182.47

--

0.0

12/26E

625,199.2（202,916.9）（190,561.7）（45,571.2）

--

187,346.7

（1,197.3）

186,149.4

7,551.1

--

196,653.2

（27,010.9）

--

--

169,642.3

（18,832.3）

150,810.0118.35109.41105.2297.27

--

0.0

BalanceSheet(Rmbmn)

cash&cashequivalents

Accountsreceivable

lnventory

othercurrentassets

Totalcurrentassets

NetPP&E

Netintangibles

Totalinvestments

otherlong-termassets

Totalassets

Accountspayable

short-termdebt

short-termleaseliabilities

othercurrentliabilities

Totalcurrentliabilities

Long-termdebt

Long-termleaseliabilities

otherlong-termliabilities

Totallong-termliabilities

Totalliabilities

Preferredshares

Totalcommonequity

Minorityinterest

Totalliabilities&equity

Netdebt,adjusted

12/23

121,779.93,914.1

--

169,056.5

294,750.5

979.6

21.1

0.0

52,326.9

348,078.1

76,236.0

--

--

76,664.9

152,900.9

--

--

7,935.6

7,935.6160,836.5

--

187,241.6

--

348,078.1

（121,779.9）

12/24E

247,189.51,795.0

--

171,710.0

420,694.5

949.3（81.6）0.0

52,326.9

473,889.0

100,003.3

--

--

82,669.1

182,672.4

--

--

7,935.6

7,935.6190,608.0

--

283,632.0

--

474,240.0

（247,189.5）

12/25E

403,289.82,280.8

--

173,350.1

578,920.7

1,318.7（91.9）0.0

52,326.9

632,474.4

107,570.6

--

--

92,328.6

199,899.3

--

--

7,935.6

7,935.6207,834.9

--

424,990.5

--

632,825.4

（403,289.8）

12/26E

589,849.02,814.3

--

174,774.7

767,438.1

2,105.9（102.2）0.0

52,326.9

821,768.7

111,993.8

--

--

107,557.5

219,551.3

--

--

7,935.6

7,935.6227,486.9

--

594,632.8

--

822,119.7

（589,849.0）

CashFlow(Rmbmn)

12/23

12/24E

12/25E

12/26E

Netincome

60,820.3

82,532.2

125,453.7

150,810.0

D&Aadd-back

786.2

1,392.3

1,240.9

1,197.3

Minorityinterestadd-back

--

--

--

--

Net(inc)/decworkingcapital

26,456.3

29,237.0

15,101.0

17,693.9

Otheroperatingcashflow

6,099.5

13,858.3

15,904.8

18,832.3

Cashflowfromoperations

94,162.3

127,019.7

157,700.3

188,533.5

Capitalexpenditures

(583.9)

(1,259.2)

(1,600.0)

(1,974.2)

Acquisitions

--

--

--

--

Divestitures

--

--

--

--

Others

(54,847.4)

--

--

--

Cashflowfrominvesting

(55,431.3)

(1,259.2)

(1,600.0)

(1,974.2)

Repaymentofleaseliabilities

--

--

--

--

Dividendspaid(common&pref)

--

--

--

--

Inc/(dec)indebt

--

--

--

--

Otherfinancingcashflows

(9,251.8)

(350.8)

0.0

0.0

Cashflowfromfinancing

(9,251.8)

(350.8)

0.0

0.0

Totalcashflow

29,479.3

125,409.8

156,100.3

186,559.2

Freecashflow

93,578.5

125,760.6

156,100.3

186,559.2

Source:Companydata,GoldmanSachsResearchestimates.

16May20242

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GoldmanSachs

PDDHoldings(PDD)

regainedgrowthmomentumandhasdominanceamongstbrandswithitsTmall+internationaleCommerceandcloud).

nWeexpectTemulossestobesigni?cantlylowerthanStreetexpectations:WemaintainourTemuGMVforecastofUS$45bnforFY24andwebelieveTemuhas

beenontracktomeetourestimateofUS$9bnGMVin1Q24E,+11%qoq.Thebiggestdevelopmentoverthepast2monthshasbeenTemu’srolloutof

semi-entrustedmodel?rstinU.S.inmid-Marchandsubsequentlyin7other

countries.Sincethen,signi?canttraf?chasbeenpivotedtosemi-entrustedmodelontheTemurecommendationfeedpageandlookingahead,webelievethe

developmentofsemi-entrustedmodelwillbethekeyswingfactortoTemu’sgrowthandpro?tability,andcompetitionremainsintensewithpeersplanningtorollout

semi-entrustedmodelsaswell.

nWeforecast1Qonlinemarketingrevenueof+46%onfurthertakerateboost,butbeingmindfuloftakeraterisksaheadasdomesticcompetitionintensi?es:

Weexpectdomesticcompetitiontointensifyovertherestof2024despite

expectingasolid1QthatwillbeboostedbylastJan-Feb’seasybases.With

Alibaba’srevamped?ghtbackstrategy,wehaveobservedasequentiallynarrower

BABAgrowthgapvs.industry/PDD/Douyin(seeExhibit17forourcross-checkfromChinaexpressplayersandourestimatesfordomesticGMVgrowth)withlossesofUS$-4.9bn(vs.V.A.consensusofUS$-7.7bn),yetlikelystilllimitedvaluationtobe

ascribedinPDD’smarketcapinthenearterm,inourviewongeopoliticaluncertainties,untilfurtherpolicyclarityfromkeycountriesisreceived.

nOn1Q24E:Wenowforecastrevenuegrowthof125%yoy(vs.V.A.consensusof

102%),amongstwhichweseeonlinemarketingof46%(vs.V.A.of40%)and

transactioncommissionrevenuegrowthof331%yoy(V.A.of266%)onthebackofourestimateofPinduoduoGMVgrowthof30%(vs.NBSindustryonlineGMVof

12%).Weestimategroupadj.operatingpro?tofRmb18bn,+116%yoy,amongst

whichPinduoduomainplatformatRmb23bn.ForTemu,weestimateuniteconomicsimprovementsequentially,drivenbynormalizedful?llmentexpensespost-peak

seasonandcontinueddisciplinedinvestmentsintosales&marketing(per

Pathmaticsandourchecks).Wealsoincludeinthisreport,HundredXhighfrequencydatathattracksTemu’spurchaseintentfromUSconsumers.

Withthisnote,we?ne-tuneourestimates(0-1%)andforecast2024E-26Etoremainbroadlyunchanged.WeremainNeutralonPDDwithanupdated12-mTPofUS$145(prior:US$143)onasectorrelativebasisgiven:(1)shiftingdomesticeCommerce

landscape,witheCommercepeersreinvestingintocoreeCommerceadtechwith

strongeremphasisonpricecompetitivenessthatcouldresultinamarkedincreasein

ROI-/sales-basedadinventoryandthusaslowertakerateexpansionforPDD’sdomesticbusiness,inourview,(2)temperedTemuvaluation(ex-USTemu)untilmoreregulatory

clarityemerges,thoughweremainconstructiveonTemu’sgrowthstory,and(3)amorebalancedrisk-rewardatthecurrentsharepricelevelandlowerupsidevs.medianofourBuy-ratedChinaInternetcoverage.

ThelatestfromourTemuprogresscheck:

16May20243

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PDDHoldings(PDD)

GoldmanSachs

(1)SequentialdeclineinGMVintheUS,withUSMAUstillfallingsequentiallyinrecentmonths,butwithsigni?cantshiftinfocusintonewmarketsespeciallyASEANandSouthAmerica.

(2)afurtherroll-outandheavytraf?callocationpivotedtowardssemi-entrustedmodel:wenoteTemuhasallocatedsigni?canttraf?ctosemi-entrustedmodel

comparedtomid-March,wherenowthemajorityoftheSKUsunderrecommendation

feedarewithaclearlabelof“l(fā)ocalwarehouse”andcanbeshippedtocustomerswithintypically3-7days(vs.fully-entrustedmodelof7-14days);

(3)disciplinedinvestmentsintosales&marketing:Meta(coveredbyUSInternet

analystEricSheridan)didnotquantifyChina’sgrowthtailwindtoadvertisinggrowthat

1Q24resultsandnotedthatChina-basedadvertisergrowthisfacingatoughercompvs.2023.WebelievethisalongsidePathmaticsdata(seeExhibit8)bothsuggeststhatTemuhaslikelybeenmoredisciplinedinsales&marketingthisyear;

(4)continuedintensi?edcross-bordereCommercecompetitionwithaggressive

targetssetbyallmajorplayers,perLatePostnews,Alibaba’stwomainplatforms

(AliExpressandLazada)hadacombinedGMVofUS$40bnlastyear(vs.ourestimateofTemuatUS$18bn/US$45bnfor2023/2024E).

(5)weleverageanewdatasetfromHundredX,whichsuggestsTemucustomers

purchaseintenthasbeentrendingdownoverthepastyear,yethadaslightpickupoverthepastmonthinApr2024(Exhibit15).

KeytowatchatTemu:(1)sequentialgrowthofTemusemi-entrustedprogramandbalancebetweenfully&semi-entrustedmodel;(2)platform’smark-upunderthe

semi-entrustedmodel,asplatformsarerelativelylooserwithprocurementprice(vs.

extremelystrictwithfully-entrustedmodel);(3)Peers’rolloutofasimilarsemi-entrustedmodel,whichcouldpotentiallygainwalletsharefromTemusemi-entrustedmerchants;

(4)furthergeographicalexpansion,particularlyinBrazil,Indonesia,etc.anduserengagement/retention.

Exhibit1:For1Q24Eresults,weexpectrevenue/earningstobeatforPDD,yetatasmallermagnitudevs.priorquarters

Source:VisibleAlphaConsensusData,Companydata,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

16May20244

_

GoldmanSachs

PDDHoldings(PDD)

Exhibit2:Temukeyoperating/?nancialdataataglance(GSe)

Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch,SensorTower

Upsiderisks:(1)better-than-expected2024onlinemarketingrevenues,(2)moderation

ingeopoliticalrisks/faster-than-expectedTemuGMVgrowthonLatAm/newmarketsand/orcategoryexpansionfromsemi-entrustedmodel,(3)faster-than-expected

domesticGMVgrowth/takerateincreasesdespitecompetition(aspeersstillstrivetomaintainstabledomesticpro?ts),expansionintobrands,andfurtherwideningofDuoDuoGroceryleadershipexpansionifotherplayersdownscaleinCommunityGroup

Purchase(CGP),(4)potentialnewrevenuestreamsfromTemuonline

marketing/domesticbusinessentrustedmodelcategoryexpansionsetc.

Downsiderisks:(1)lower-than-expectedonlinemarketingrevenuesonincreased

eCommerceROI-/sales-basedadinventoryandnarrowerGMVgrowthgapatAlibabavs.industry,(2)wider-than-expectedgeopoliticalheadwindsintoEuropeandother

developedmarketswithhighspendingpower,(3)higher-than-expectedcompetitionifAlibaba’snewlow-priceadtechinitiativesgaintraction/faster-than-expectedDouyin

shelf-basedexpansioninlowticketsizeitemsatlowertakerates(Douyinhasbeen

16May20245

_

GoldmanSachs

PDDHoldings(PDD)

offeringcommissionfreeinitiatives)vs.eCommerceplatforms,(4)reinvestmentstosustaingrowththatmayposedownsideriskstocorepro?tmargins.

TheauthorswouldliketothankDamianXieforhiscontributiontothisreport.

Temurecentupdates

Regionexpansion

nTemuenteredinto15newcountriesoverMarchandApril,with5fromEurope,3

fromSouthAmerica,2fromNorthAmerica,2fromCentralAsia,2fromAfrica,and1fromMiddleEast.Temunowoperatesinatotalof64marketsworldwide.

nWenotethatTemuhasrecentlyenteredColumbia,Uruguay,andPeru,markingfurtherexpansioninSouthAmericafollowingits?rstentryintoChilelastAugust.

nHowever,TemuhasyettofurthertapintotheASEANmarketbeyondtheexistingtwocountries(Philippines&Malaysia),wheretheregioncontinuestodisplaythefastestgrowthintermsofMAUs(+129%mominApril)albeitonarelativelysmallbase.

nWebelievetheslower-than-expectedASEANexpansionmaybeduetopotentialregulatoryrisksand?ercecompetitionintheregionaswehighlightedinourlastnote.

Exhibit3:Temuhasentered15countriesoverMar-Apr2024,witha

totalof64countries

Cumulative#countriesthatTemuentered

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Source:CompanydatacompiledbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Keyobservationsonsemi-entrustedmodel

n9countriesincludedwithsemi-entrustedmodel:sinceit?rstdebutedin

mid-MarchintheU.S.,Temuhasfurtherrolledoutthesemi-entrustedmodeltoCanada,U.K.,Germany,France,Italy,Spain,Australia,andNewZealand.

nSigni?canttraf?callocation:wenoteTemuhasallocatedsigni?canttraf?cto

semi-entrustedmodelcomparedtomid-Marchwhenitwas?rstlaunched(seeournote),basedouruserexperienceandcheckswithmerchants.Themajorityofthe

16May20246

_

GoldmanSachsPDDHoldings(PDD)

SKUsunderrecommendationfeedarenowwithaclearlabelof“l(fā)ocalwarehouse”

nFastershippingtime:mostofSKUswithlabelsof“l(fā)ocalwarehouse”canbe

shippedtocustomerswithinusually3-7days(muchfasterthanitsfully-entrustedmodelof7-14days).

nProductexpansion:comparedtoourinitialthoughtsthatsemi-entrustedmodelwouldapplytobulky-itemcategories(homeappliance,furniture,etc.),ithasnowexpandedtofull-category,includingthepriorsmallgadgets,snacks,food,etc.,inadditiontothebulky-items.

Exhibit4:ComparisonbetweenTemu’sfully-entrustedmodel,semi-entrustedmodelandAliExpress’ssemi-entrustedmodel

Source:Companydata,datacompiledbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

16May20247

_

GoldmanSachs

PDDHoldings(PDD)

Exhibit5:Wenotethetraf?conTemuhassigni?cantlypivotedtowardsitssemi-entrustedmodel,withaclearlabelof“l(fā)ocalwarehouse”

Source:Companydata

USTemuGMVtracker

BloombergSecondMeasuretracksdebit/creditcarddataofapanelof20mn+US

consumers.Ourtrackersuggests-9%GMVqoqfor1Q24vs.4Q23(vs.ouroverallTemuGMVforecastof+11%qoq)asTemushiftsfocusawayfromtheUS.

16May20248

Novweek4

Novweek5

Decweek1

Decweek2

Decweek3

Decweek4

Janweek1

_

GoldmanSachs

PDDHoldings(PDD)

Exhibit6:BBGSecondMeasuremonthlyTemuUSPanelSalesExhibit7:BBGSecondMeasureweeklyTemuUSPanelSales

25.0

20.0

15.0

10.0

5.0

-

BBGSecondMeasuremonthlyTemuUSPanelSales

monthlyGMV(US$mn)momgrowth(%)

58%

53%

54%

36%

26%

17%

12%

0%

29%

18%

1%

-4%

-5%

-12%-14%

7.06.05.04.03.02.01.0

0.0

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

-10%

-20%

BBGSecondmeasureweeklyTemuUSPanelSalesweeklyGMV(US$mn)wowgrowth(%)

32%

25%

18%

16%

6%

14%

8%

7%

1%0%5%

-7%-947%

-4%

1%

-9%

-11%-11%

-19%

-23%

-23%

Janweek2

Janweek3

Janweek4

Febweek1

Febweek2

Febweek3

Febweek4

Marweek1

Marweek2

Marweek3

Marweek4

Marweek5

Aprweek1

Aprweek2

Aprweek3

Aprweek4

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

-10%

-20%

-30%

BloombergSecondMeasuretracksdebit/creditcarddataofapanelof20mn+USconsumers.

Source:BBGSecondMeasure

BloombergSecondMeasuretracksdebit/creditcarddataofapanelof20mn+USconsumers.

Source:BBGSecondMeasure

Sales&marketing

PerPathmaticshigh-frequencydata,weobserveTemu’shigherinvestmentsintoadsinJan2024,likelyduetoitsadsaheadofSuperBowlonFeb11,2024.Post-Jan,weseeanormalizationofTemu’smarketingspendoverFeb-Apr,droppedtothelowestlevelsinceearly-2023.

Exhibit8:Pathmaticsindexedadsimpression/spend(global)

340

290

240

190

140

90

40

Temu-Impressions

Temu-Spend

Amazon-Impressions

Amazon-Spend

Source:Pathmatics

Ful?llment

Wenoteairfreightratehassequentiallynormalizedin1Q24from4Q23duetosofterseasonalityandslightlypickedupqoqinApr/May,potentiallyduetosomedemand

?owingoutfromseafreightamidtheRedSeaSituation.

16May20249

_

GoldmanSachs

PDDHoldings(PDD)

Exhibit9:Airfreightrate(ShanghaiPudongOutboundAirFreightIndex)

Source:TACIndex

Engagement

Consumers:NotableincreaseinASEANandSouthAmerica.USMAUexperiencedaslightdeclinewithUSMAUsharefurtherdecreasedto25%.

Merchants:Temu’sdomesticmerchantappMAUgrew+31%mominMar,likelyduetoonboardingofnewmerchantsduetotheroll-outofsemi-entrustedmodel(e.g.existingAmazonmerchants).

16May202410

_

GoldmanSachs

PDDHoldings(PDD)

Exhibit10:Temuengagementdatavs.peers

WenotethatconsumersoutsideChinawouldaccessandpurchaseproductsfromeCommerceplatformsthroughbothwebsitesandapps,unlikeChineseconsumerswhotypicallyonlypurchaseoneCommerceapps,thusweleverageSensorTowertotrackappengagementdata,anduseSimilarwebtotracktheirwebsitemonthlyvisits,asaproxyoftheirwebsitetraf?c.

Source:SensorTower,Similarweb

Exhibit11:TemuappMAUbyregion

Source:SensorTower

16May202411

_

GoldmanSachs

PDDHoldings(PDD)

Exhibit12:Temuappweeklydownloads(K)byregion

USNorthAmerica(ex.US)OceaniaEurope(first6countries)Europe(others)NorthAsia

ASEANMiddleEastSouthAmericaAfricaSouthAsiaCentralAsia

4,500

4,000

3,500

3,000

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

-

The?rst6EuropeancountriesincludeFrance,Germany,Italy,theNetherlands,SpainandtheUK(launchedinApril2023);SensorTowerhasbackwardadjustedTemudatainSeptember.

Source:SensorTower

Exhibit13:TemuhascontinuedtotapintoPinduoduo’smerchantbase

Exhibit14:Temumerchantsgrewby31%mominMarch2024,likelyduetonewsemi-entrustedmerchants

450

400

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0

3%3%

1%

TemumerchantappMAU(thousand)

%ofPDDmaina