OM本科教學(xué)案例O27neill公司省公開課金獎(jiǎng)全國賽課一等獎(jiǎng)微課獲獎(jiǎng)?wù)n件

案例：O’Neill企業(yè)怎樣應(yīng)用報(bào)童模型O’Neill防寒膠衣和沖浪、潛水、滑水、三項(xiàng)全能、風(fēng)帆、沖浪板等水上運(yùn)動(dòng)裝備設(shè)計(jì)和制造商。1/12AnIntroductiontoHammer3/2防寒膠衣，胸部橡膠厚度3mm，其它部位厚度2mm，季節(jié)性商品（春季），主要消費(fèi)群是15~30歲加州男性。由亞洲制造商TEC集團(tuán)生產(chǎn)，TEC為O’Neill企業(yè)帶來很多優(yōu)勢：低成本、采購教授、柔性產(chǎn)能等，但它要求全部訂單必須有3個(gè)月供貨提前期。O’Neill企業(yè)必須在春季降臨之前11月份下好訂單，這么第二年1月31日之前位于SanDiego，California分銷中心才能有現(xiàn)貨供給。不過，企業(yè)在11月份預(yù)測并不可靠，依據(jù)企業(yè)經(jīng)驗(yàn)，50%概率實(shí)際實(shí)現(xiàn)需求在預(yù)測值75%~125%之間。假如能夠觀察到第一、第二個(gè)實(shí)際銷售情況話，O’Neill企業(yè)就能對(duì)預(yù)測進(jìn)行有效修正，并經(jīng)過追加訂單來防止缺貨情況發(fā)生。不過因?yàn)樘崆捌谙拗?，O’Neill企業(yè)必須在11月份為整個(gè)銷售期作出唯一一次訂購決議。2/12Hammer3/2經(jīng)濟(jì)成本和時(shí)間節(jié)點(diǎn)11月12月1月2月3月4月5月6月7月8月產(chǎn)生需求預(yù)測向TEC下訂單月末接收到向TEC訂購貨物過季產(chǎn)品打折出售春季銷售期售價(jià)=180美元向TEC采購價(jià)=110美元季末折扣價(jià)=90美元（50%折扣）3/12STEP1：需求預(yù)測SubjectiveApproach:O’Neill企業(yè)調(diào)查了內(nèi)部人員對(duì)Hammer3/2需求個(gè)人預(yù)測，調(diào)查結(jié)果平均水平是3200套。StatisticalApproach:第一步：搜集數(shù)據(jù)，與預(yù)測產(chǎn)品有相同預(yù)測偏差產(chǎn)品需求預(yù)測和實(shí)際需求歷史數(shù)據(jù)（表1，圖1）；第二步：計(jì)算每種產(chǎn)品A/F值；第三步：將數(shù)據(jù)按A/F值升序排列（表2）；第四步：得到離散經(jīng)驗(yàn)分布函數(shù)（表3）。4/12表1前一個(gè)銷售季節(jié)沖浪防寒膠衣預(yù)測和實(shí)際需求數(shù)據(jù)產(chǎn)品描述預(yù)測實(shí)際需求誤差A(yù)/F比率JRZENFL3/290140-501.56EPIC5/3W/HD12083370.69JRZEN3/2140143-31.02WMSZEN-ZIP4/317016370.96HEATWAVE3/2170212-421.25JREPIC3/218017550.97WMSZEN3/2180195-151.08ZEN-ZIP5/4/3W/HOOD270317-471.17WMSEPIC5/3W/HD320369-491.15EVO3/2380587-2071.54JREPIC4/3380571-1911.50WMSEPIC2MMFULL390311790.80HEATWAVE4/34302741560.64ZEN4/34302391910.56EVO4/3440623-1831.42ZENFL3/2450365850.81HEAT4/3460450100.98ZEN-ZIP2MMFULL4701163540.255/12表1前一個(gè)銷售季節(jié)沖浪防寒膠衣預(yù)測和實(shí)際需求數(shù)據(jù)（續(xù)）產(chǎn)品描述預(yù)測實(shí)際需求誤差A(yù)/F比率HEAT3/2500635-1351.27WMSEPIC3/2610830-2201.36

WMSELITE3/26503642860.56ZEN-ZIP3/2660788-1281.19ZEN2MMS/SFULL6804532270.67EPIC2MMS/SFULL7406071330.82EPIC4/310207322880.72WMSEPIC4/310601550-4921.46JRHAMMER3/212207214990.59HAMMER3/213001696-3961.30HAMMERS/SFULL14901832-3421.23EPIC3/221903504-13141.60ZEN3/23190119519950.37ZEN-ZIP4/3381032895210.86WMSHAMMER3/2FULL6490367328170.57誤差=預(yù)測值-實(shí)際需求A/F比率=實(shí)際需求/預(yù)測值6/12表2前一個(gè)銷售季節(jié)沖浪防寒膠衣Ａ／Ｆ比率排序產(chǎn)品描述預(yù)測實(shí)際需求A/F值排名百分位數(shù)ZEN-ZIP2MMFULL4701160.2513.0ZEN3/2319011950.3726.1ZEN4/34302390.5639.1WMSELITE3/26503640.56412.1WMSHAMMER3/2FULL649036730.57515.2JRHAMMER3/212207210.59618.2HEATWAVE4/34302740.64721.2ZEN2MMS/SFULL6804530.67824.2EPIC5/3W/HD120830.69927.3EPIC4/310207320.721030.3WMSEPIC2MMFULL3903110.81133.3ZENFL3/24503650.811236.4EPIC2MMS/SFULL7406070.821339.4ZEN—ZIP4/3381032890.861442.5WMSZEN-ZIP4/31701630.961545.5JREPIC3/21801750.971648.5JRZEN3/21401431.021854.5HEAT4/34604500.981751.57/12產(chǎn)品描述預(yù)測實(shí)際需求A/F值排名百分位數(shù)WMSZEN3/21801951.081957.6WMSEPIC5/3W/HD3203691.152060.6ZEN-ZIP5/4/3W/HOOD2703171.172163.6ZEN-ZIP3/26607881.192266.7HAMMERS/SFULL149018321.232369.7HEATWAVE3/21702121.252472.7HEAT3/25006351.272575.8HAMMER3/2130016961.32678.8WMSEPIC3/26108301.362781.8EVO4/34406231.422884.8WMSEPIC4/3106015501.462987.9JREPIC4/33805711.53090.9EVO3/23805871.543193.9JRZENFL3/2901401.563297.0EPIC3/2219035041.633100表2前一個(gè)銷售季節(jié)沖浪防寒膠衣Ａ／Ｆ比率排序（續(xù)）A/F比率=實(shí)際需求/預(yù)測值百分位數(shù)=排名/防寒膠衣種數(shù)（33）8/12表3使用歷史A/F比率Hammer3/2離散經(jīng)驗(yàn)分布函數(shù)A/F比率

Q

F(Q)A/F比率

Q

F(Q)0.258000.03030.7223040.30300.3711840.06060.8025600.33330.5617920.09090.8125920.36360.5617920.12120.8226240.39390.5718240.15150.8627520.42420.5918880.18180.9630720.45450.6420480.21210.9731040.48480.6721440.24240.9831360.51520.6922080.27271.0232640.54559/12A/F比率

Q

F(Q)A/F比率

Q

F(Q)1.0834560.57581.3643520.81821.1536800.60611.4245440.84851.1737440.63641.4646720.87881.1938080.66671.5048000.90911.2339360.69701.5449280.93941.2540000.72731.5649920.96971.2740640.75761.6051201.00001.3041600.7879Q=A/F比率乘以最初銷售預(yù)測3200單位F(Q)=需求小于或等于Q概率表3使用歷史A/F比率Hammer3/2離散經(jīng)驗(yàn)分布函數(shù)（續(xù)）10/12STEP2：求最優(yōu)訂貨量NewsboyModel

Overagecost

C1=110-90=20Underagecost