文本fig strategy2016無花果策略

A-Hpremiumstill PingAn-A-Hpremiumstill PingAn-2Source:Wind,CICC H-share ModelModel3Source:Wind,CICC Marketcap DailyTurnover Shares(mn) A- Current Market Daily Shares TheperformanceofA-share ReboundfrombottominA-sharebrokers - - TheperformanceofA-share ReboundfrombottominA-sharebrokers - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - A-shareinsurersPing - - - China - - - - - - Largestate-owned Mid-sizeJV - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - CSI SecuritiesIII(SWS BanksIII(SWS InsuranceIII(SWS - - - - - - - - - - - 4Source:Wind,CICCA-sharebanksTheperformanceofH-share5Source:Wind,CICCH- ReboundfrombottominH-sharebrokers - - TheperformanceofH-share5Source:Wind,CICCH- ReboundfrombottominH-sharebrokers - - - - - - - China Ping - - - - - - - - - - - - PICC - - PICC - - - - Mid-sizeJV - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Local - - - - - - - - - - - - - OtherH-share - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - H-shareinsurersDisposingtheDisposingtheovercapacityinthereal6BrokershavethelowestleverageratioandthuslessvulnerabletoBS86420BrokershavethelowestleverageratioandthuslessvulnerabletoBS864203Q15leverageSource:Wind,CICC7LeverageRisingcreditrisks—noclearsignalsofNPLformation210NPLratioNetoverdueloanformationrateRealestatede-stockingRisingcreditrisks—noclearsignalsofNPLformation210NPLratioNetoverdueloanformationrateRealestatede-stockingstilltakestimeto 50De-stockingmonthofdifferenttierTier-Tier-Tier-9Source:Companydata,NBSC,CICC8Jul-Jan-Jul-Jan-Jul-Jan-Jul-Jan-Jul-Jan-Jul-Jan-Jul-Jan-Jul-Jan-Jul- BothNPLbalance/ratioincreased,aswiththenetoverdueloanformation0Source:Companydata,CICC0Source:Companydata,CICC9WhileimpairmentcoverageratioCreditcostcontinuedtoRisingcreditrisks—NPLratiocouldreach5- Risingcreditrisks—NPLratiocouldreach5- PBoCstressteston28majorbanksinIMF'sstresstestson17majorbanksinNoNoSource:Companydata,IMF,PBoC,CICCIMFandPBoCstresstestsshowsNPLreaching5-10%wheneconomicgrowthslowsto BoCBoComBankZBankC PABBoBJBoNBBoNJCRCBwSMLratioisoneimportantearlyRisingcreditrisks—NPLratiocouldreach5-RealWater,environmentalandpublicutilityLeasingandcommercialOverseasandImpliedNPLratioRisingcreditrisks—NPLratiocouldreach5-RealWater,environmentalandpublicutilityLeasingandcommercialOverseasandImpliedNPLratioSource:Companydata,CICCNPL(Rmb 939,864 Personalconsumption Discounted Science,education,cultureand Transportation& Wholesale&retailandcatering NPLCommercialbanks ABC GrossloansbreakdownbyImpliedNPLratioat8.11%fromabottom-upSector’snon-standardInvestmentinpropertiesInfrastructuredebtschemesListedinsurers’snon-standardassets(as%oftotal10.9%4.4%Sector’snon-standardInvestmentinpropertiesInfrastructuredebtschemesListedinsurers’snon-standardassets(as%oftotal10.9%4.4%PICCChinaPICCCompayPingNewChinaSource:CIRC,Companydata,CICC%ofinvestmentassets Growthrate LowinterestLowinterestrateLowinterestrate—Marginunderpressurefor1-yrbenchmarkratesfor22-Nov-loweredby40bps;1-yr1-yrbenchmarkratesfor11-May-anddepositsloweredby1-yrbenchmarkratesfor26-Aug-anddepositsloweredbyHypothetical25bpscutof1-benchmarkratesforlendingTotalLowinterestrate—Marginunderpressurefor1-yrbenchmarkratesfor22-Nov-loweredby40bps;1-yr1-yrbenchmarkratesfor11-May-anddepositsloweredby1-yrbenchmarkratesfor26-Aug-anddepositsloweredbyHypothetical25bpscutof1-benchmarkratesforlendingTotalfromIRTotalimpactfromIR&RRRSource:Companydata,CICC (20.2)(37.4)(25.2)(18.6)(28.6)(36.3)(23.1)(20.1)(32.0) (24.7) (32.5)(49.8)(37.3)(30.4)(39.3)(46.8)(33.3)(28.5)(42.5)(31.7)(21.3)(34.3)(37.0) TotalimpactHypothetical50bpsRRRcut fromRRRcut4Q15;600bpsRRRcutin 24-Oct- 1-yrbenchmarkratesfor anddepositsloweredby 28-Jun- 1-yrbenchmarkratesfor anddepositsloweredby 1-Mar- 1-yrbenchmarkratesfor anddepositsloweredby be1-yrarkben1-yr ImpactonNIM BOCBoComSPDB BOBJBONBBONJCRCBw.Staticanalysisshows2015/16NIMtodrop13/25bps,whileadjustmentofstructurecouldmitigatetheLowinterestrate—MarginunderpressureforBankswithhigherproportionofmortgageloanswouldfacegreaterpressureonNIM Mid/Long-termCorpLowinterestrate—MarginunderpressureforBankswithhigherproportionofmortgageloanswouldfacegreaterpressureonNIM Mid/Long-termCorpMid-sizedbanksCity/RuralcommercialListedSource:Companydata,CICCNIM(beginningandending balance,%) Lowinterestrate—Marginunderpressurefor(ProfitgrowthYoY5Source:Companydata,CICCROEcouldfalldowntoaround14%-EarninggrowthwouldbenegativeinLowinterestrate—Marginunderpressurefor(ProfitgrowthYoY5Source:Companydata,CICCROEcouldfalldowntoaround14%-EarninggrowthwouldbenegativeinLowinterestrate—Mid-termpressureonRiskdiscountLowinterestrate—Mid-termpressureonRiskdiscountInvestmentyieldInsurancereserveIRInvestmentassetsSetasidemoreinsuranceInvestmentincomeReserve:SetasidemorereservewillinfluenceprofitDiscountReservewithfixedbenefits:750-daymovingyieldcurve;Reservewithvariablebenefits:InvestmentReserve:SetasidemorereservewillinfluenceprofitDiscountReservewithfixedbenefits:750-daymovingyieldcurve;Reservewithvariablebenefits:InvestmentreturnassumptionadjustedCIRCformulatedguaranteeratebyinsurancetypes,e.g:(i)Non-par:2.5%or(ii)Par:2.5%or0-20yrs:750-daymoving20-40yrs:migrateto40yrs+: insurer LifeNetincomeBookSource:Companydata,CICCreservingrate PingAnChinaTaipingCompanyA ChinaLife NewChinaPICCGroupLifeReserveFinancial Embeddedvalue EV&C-ROSSSolvency AsIRdecreases,morereservewillbringthenetprofitdownin4Qand750-dayMAtreasuryyieldcurvemaytrenddowne750-dayMAtreasuryyieldcurvemaytrenddowneof10-yeargovernmentbondyieldSource:Companydata,CICCInvestmentincome:morepressureforfutureinsteadofrecentMorepressureforthefutureinsteadofrecentinvestmentifIRstaysMeasurestakenbyntSource:Investmentincome:morepressureforfutureinsteadofrecentMorepressureforthefutureinsteadofrecentinvestmentifIRstaysMeasurestakenbyntSource:CIRC,CICCIncreasetheproportionoverseainvestments.durationlongerStilloffernicefix-incomeBalanceSheet：Bigdurationgaptobringmoreasset Overall,BalanceSheet：Bigdurationgaptobringmoreasset Overall,theassetsdurationismuchshorterthanliabilities,andthebigdurationgapwillbringmoreassetriskAdjustslowerthanShorterthanliabilitiesandmostfixedincomeassetsareHTM15-20year5-7yearsLowinterestrate—largeexposuretofixedincomesecuritiesforInterestrateofmargintradingandshortSource:Wind,CICCLowinterestrate—largeexposuretofixedincomesecuritiesforInterestrateofmargintradingandshortSource:Wind,CICCproprietar120businessesInterestratecontinuestoRegulationframeworkRegulationframeworkisAnewparadigmisunderPrudentialandMacro/MicroprudentialSource:CICCDeposit-takinginstitutionsInsuranceCompaniesandMajorinvestmentAnewparadigmisunderPrudentialandMacro/MicroprudentialSource:CICCDeposit-takinginstitutionsInsuranceCompaniesandMajorinvestmentBankofFinancialPolicyPrudentialRegulationBanks:pilotprogramofventuredebt?Selectedoutstandingsmall/mid-sizedcompanies(especiallythosetechfirmswithlimitedaccesstotraditionalbankborrowings)throughBanks:pilotprogramofventuredebt?Selectedoutstandingsmall/mid-sizedcompanies(especiallythosetechfirmswithlimitedaccesstotraditionalbankborrowings)throughcooperationwithfundsandprovidedcreditsupport,forminganaligneddebt/equityfinancingmodel?SteppedintoventuredebtfinancinginthetechnologyindustryafterLegendHoldingsbecamethelargestshareholderin2010?ReferredtotheexperiencesofSiliconValley?Establishedcooperationwith55renownfundsandVCs(incl.GPcapital,Sailingcapital,Fortunecapital,Cowincapital,Sequoiacapital,etc.)topromotenation-wideventuredebtfinancing.?LeveragedParentCoLegendHolding’sexpertiseinthetechindustry,providingsmall/mid-sizedtechfirms?115loanswrittenwithoutstandingamountofSource:Companydata,CICCHankouBank:one-stoploanfactoryfortechfirmsSPDB:venturedebtfinancingproductincooperationwithfundsRegulatorswillpromotepilotprogramsofventuredebtfinancinginInsurer：CROSSisunder 0-0.1-CreditinsuranceriskfactorAgricultureinsuranceriskfactor1.1-2.6-PropertyinsuranceriskfactorCargoinsuranceriskfactorShort-termhealthinsuranceriskBasicriskCIRC,CICCmoneyInsurer：CROSSisunder 0-0.1-CreditinsuranceriskfactorAgricultureinsuranceriskfactor1.1-2.6-PropertyinsuranceriskfactorCargoinsuranceriskfactorShort-termhealthinsuranceriskBasicriskCIRC,CICCmoneyConvertibleHybridEquityAssetmanagementEquityPreferredInvestment:moreinvestmentrisk,morerequiredP&C:Scaleadvantagebecamemoreimportant,whichisbeneficialforthebigLife:LessinsurancereservetoimproveEVduetodiscountrate Brokers：Rebuildafterthe Morevisibilityonregister-basedIPOBrokers：Rebuildafterthe Morevisibilityonregister-basedIPOreform;othermarketreformtobeexpectedaftertheAccelerationofinternetfinanceacquirebroker’sCSRCofficersinToanticipatetherulingstyle:innovativeorClosureofinvestigationintoleading Tochangethecompetitionpattern? securitiesfirms Negative ForecastofcatalystswithinPotentialpositive Supervisionforde-leverageandfinancialderivativesisstillthekeytaskforBanks:PreferBanks:Prefersmallandmid-sizedBanks：Benefitmorefromtheregulation Mid/smallscalebanksusedtoutilizereceivablesinvestmentstoavoidLDRremovaloftherequirementwillallowmoreflexibleasset 3Q15:narrowly-definedLDR:totalloans/total00 Source:Companydata,CICCBanks：Benefitmorefromtheregulation Mid/smallscalebanksusedtoutilizereceivablesinvestmentstoavoidLDRremovaloftherequirementwillallowmoreflexibleasset 3Q15:narrowly-definedLDR:totalloans/total00 Source:Companydata,CICCBanks：FlexibilityinassetmixchangeandgeographicYangtzeriverBohaiWest-Source:Companydata,CICC Banks：FlexibilityinassetmixchangeandgeographicYangtzeriverBohaiWest-Source:Companydata,CICC Northeast Mix%BankswithhigherportionofloansinthePRDandcoastalareas(BoCom,SPDB,andBoNB)couldseeslowdownofNPLformationtheearliestinmidChangeofmix Net Bond Mid/smallscalebankshavemoreflexibleassetallocation,asproportionofinvestmentsandinterbankassetsincreasedamidweakcredit Joint ABCBoCom MSBSPDB BoBJBoNJ Mix Net Bond Banks：Divergenceinearningdynamicsmore (YoYgrowth0IEAYoYgrowthNetfeeOperatingState-ownedJointstockCity/ruralcommercialAlllisted0(YoYgrowthOperatingNet3Q15CreditState-ownedJointstockCity/ruralcommercialAlllistedSource:Companydata,CICCDifferentiatedprofitgrowthdynamics:largebanksstrengthenedBanks：Divergenceinearningdynamicsmore (YoYgrowth0IEAYoYgrowthNetfeeOperatingState-ownedJointstockCity/ruralcommercialAlllisted0(YoYgrowthOperatingNet3Q15CreditState-ownedJointstockCity/ruralcommercialAlllistedSource:Companydata,CICCDifferentiatedprofitgrowthdynamics:largebanksstrengthenedcostcontrol,mid/smallbanksmadeprovisionsandsawPPOPlargelyoffsetbyimpairment Differentiatedrevenuedriver:largebankssaw3QIEAgrowslowlyandfeegrowthmuchlowerthanmid/smallscale Banks：Largebanksfacemorechallengesinearning Source:CompanyBanks：Largebanksfacemorechallengesinearning Source:Companydata,CICC NetProfit Listed Jointstock Citycommercial Largebankswillseenegativeearningsgrowthin Closing Freefloatmarket Stockcode Non-float Freefloat (RmbA-sharemodelportfolio:BoBJ,CIB,PAB,Banks：valuation marketPPoPNetprofitBanks：valuation marketPPoPNetprofitBanks：valuationDividendBanks：valuationDividend11.1110.568.058.96Insurers:StrongInsurers:StrongNBVgrowthLife：AgentgrowthtolayagoodfoundationforthecomingPingChinaCompany-(Rmb/per -PingChinaNewChinaCompanydata,CICCLife：AgentgrowthtolayagoodfoundationforthecomingPingChinaCompany-(Rmb/per -PingChinaNewChinaCompanydata,CICCLife：NBVGrowthmayslowdownin2016,butwillmaintainahighSource:Companydata,CICC(Rmb, ChinaYoY YoY NBVYoY YoY YoY NBVLife：NBVGrowthmayslowdownin2016,butwillmaintainahighSource:Companydata,CICC(Rmb, ChinaYoY YoY NBVYoY YoY YoY NBVYoY CompanyYoY YoY NBVYoY YoY YoY NBVYoY YoY YoY NBVYoY PICCYoY YoY NBVYoY NBVGrowthmayslowdownin2016,butwillmaintainahighlevel；PingAnandCTIHwillleadtheToppick——PingInsuranceImpactofIR??StableandfastgrowthofFYPandNBVLowestcombinedratio,andmuchfastergrowththantheP&CsectoraverageLikelytobeatourexpectationinthePingAn’sprofitToppick——PingInsuranceImpactofIR??StableandfastgrowthofFYPandNBVLowestcombinedratio,andmuchfastergrowththantheP&CsectoraverageLikelytobeatourexpectationinthePingAn’sprofitandEVhaveleastsensitivitytoIRcut,thankstothegroupoperationandexcellentbusinessquality??Internet??UsersofInternetwasupto200mn(+43%YTD)UsersofInternetwasupto145mn,and>70mnformobileAPPs(+269%YTD)Internet+Healthcareservice?Finance”businesstobuildup“Inclusivegroup(Mar.)++?Lufaxtook100%of“InclusiveIntegrationofPinganPayand?AnnouncedtoIntegratePinganPayandWanglitong(Jul.)PingAnisopento?MangementcaresaboutthevaluaitonandisopentoSpinoffwhichcouldimprovePingan’svaluationsignificantlyInternet+Source:Companydata,CICCAutomobileLoyaltypointsFasterSpinofftoimproveLeastsensitivitytoIRLeadingperformance,androbustgrowthofinternetCompanytoWatch——HuaxiaInsurancecontractInvestmentcontractInvestmentincome/InsuranceMarket NO.ofsharesatpresent(mn)Additionalsharesissue(mn)Stockpricebeforeannouncement(Rmb)Currentprice(Rmb)MarketCap.afterissue(bn)CompanytoWatch——HuaxiaInsurancecontractInvestmentcontractInvestmentincome/InsuranceMarket NO.ofsharesatpresent(mn)Additionalsharesissue(mn)Stockpricebeforeannouncement(Rmb)Currentprice(Rmb)MarketCap.afterissue(bn)06FairvalueofHuaxiaTotalCompanydata,CICCFairvalueof51%stake Market HuaziIndustrialwillinject31.5bnintoHuaxiatogain51%ofstakethroughadditionalstockissue.Themarketcap.differenceaftertheissuewas82bn,while51%fairvalueofHuaxiawas51bnThescaleofpremiumsgrewveryfasttosupportHuaxia’ssectorranking(rank3rdintermsoftotalpremiumand26thintermsofinsurancecontractThebusinessmodelofHuaxiahaspoorsustainability：gainedpremiumsveryfastthroughuniversalproductsandotherinvestment-basedproductsCompanytoWatch——Guohua503InsurancecontractInvestmentcontractTotalMarket NO.ofsharesatpresent(mn)Additionalsharesissue(mn)Stockpricebeforeannouncement(Rmb)Currentprice(Rmb)MarketCap.afterissue(bn)StockandCompanytoWatch——Guohua503InsurancecontractInvestmentcontractTotalMarket NO.ofsharesatpresent(mn)Additionalsharesissue(mn)Stockpricebeforeannouncement(Rmb)Currentprice(Rmb)MarketCap.afterissue(bn)Stockandfundas%oftotalFairvalueofGuohuaSource:Companydata,CICCFairvalueof51%stake Market TianmaoGrouphasgotapermissionof9.9bnplacementtoacquire44%stakeofGuohua(increaseto51%).Themarketcap.differenceaftertheplacementwas40bn,whilethe51%fairvalueofGuohuawas13.7bn.GuohuaperformedamoreaggressiveinvestmentstyleanddeliveredahigherinvestmentyieldthanthesectoraverageThescaleofpremiumswasgrowingveryGuohua’sbusinessmixwasValuationSource:Companydata,CICCCompany ClosingpriceTarget Group ValuationSource:Companydata,CICCCompany ClosingpriceTarget Group PingAnH ChinaLifeH Simple n.a. n.a. A-PingAnA ChinaLifeA -NCIA -Simple CompanyPEPBGroupLifebusiness PingAnHShareChinaLifeHSharePICCGroupSimple A-PingAnAShareChinaLifeAShareNCIAShareSimpleAverage Theworstisover:monthlyearningsreboundedsinceBalanceofmargintrading&shortsellingIPOresumptionentailsincreaseinequityNetprofit&unrealizedAFSgain/loss(Rmb,(Rmb,bn181118EstimatedAFSNetNetassets(rightTheamountofequityBalanceofmargintrading&shortMonthlynetrealizedsignificantYoYIndexesperformanceimproved,andmarketsentimentstartedto--(Rmb,(Rmb,bn413151315-Theworstisover:monthlyearningsreboundedsinceBalanceofmargintrading&shortsellingIPOresumptionentailsincreaseinequityNetprofit&unrealizedAFSgain/loss(Rmb,(Rmb,bn181118EstimatedAFSNetNetassets(rightTheamountofequityBalanceofmargintrading&shortMonthlynetrealizedsignificantYoYIndexesperformanceimproved,andmarketsentimentstartedto--(Rmb,(Rmb,bn413151315- MonthlynetprofitinMonthlynetprofitinCSI300(rightSource:Wind,CICCTheworstisover:fundsexposuretofinancialsathistoricallowsinA-shreTheworstisover:fundsexposuretofinancialsathistoricallowsinA-shreBalancedfunds’exposuretofinancialStockfunds’exposuretofinancialSource:Wind,CICCAsofend-October,domesticstockfunds’exposuretofinancialstockswas~1.54%(vs.historicaverageatAsofend-October,balancedfunds’exposuretofinancialstockswas~1.58%(vs.historicaverageatTheworstisover:stillsolidbalance(Rmb,10,851(by-PropInnovativeReturn10.25%CSIAggregateBondYTDStabilisationfund(200CreditrisksofmarginUnderwriting9,678(byInnovativeAveragestockpledgedrepoIndustry4380.43(byIndustrynet1924.65Theworstisover:stillsolidbalance(Rmb,10,851(by-PropInnovativeReturn10.25%CSIAggregateBondYTDStabilisationfund(200CreditrisksofmarginUnderwriting9,678(byInnovativeAveragestockpledgedrepoIndustry4380.43(byIndustrynet1924.65(byAtindustrylevel:valuationbottom0.656.28NetSource:Wind,CICC-2015E(Rmb, % % %Net - 4.032015E(Rmb, Net Averagefee AssetAveragemargintrading 14,090(byInterestincomeInvestmentincomeBalanceMarginfinancingbalanceNetassetsUnderwriting 63,707(by Investment - Return CSI300YTD Commissionfee 0.046%(coveredProp.Trading(excl.theincremental20%netequityinjectedintoCSFCScenarioanalysis Key Rmb100 2015Assumption2016 MktScenarioMarginrequirementformargintradingwouldberaisedfrom50%Marginrequirementformargintradingwouldberaisedfrom50%toChinaGalaxySecuritiesShenwangHongyuanGFSecuritiesHaitongSecuritiesGuotaiJunanHuataiChinaMerchantsSecuritiesGuosenSecuritiesSource:Wind,CICCTheexistingbusinesswouldberapidlyreplacedbyincrementalTheapproachofraisingloan-to-valueratiotoincreasethemoneyavailabletobeprovidedwouldhavelimitedeffectineasingtheimpactofahighermarginrequirement;Intheshortterm:therulewillhavelimitedimpactontheearningsofbrokers;butrather,itsimpactonmarketsentimentmightbelarger;Inthemedium/longrun: around10%negativeimpactontheearningsofbrokers,andbepositivetothelongtermandhealthydevelopmentofthemarket.ChinaGalaxyhasthelargestmarketshareinmarginfinancewithashareof5.97%inBalanceoftradingandshort MarketshareinInterestincomeas inOct,2015(Rm ofRevenuein1-Theworstisover,buthigherβtobePrincipalInvestments(Rmb100PrincipalInvestments/Shareholders'EquityTheworstisover,buthigherβtobePrincipalInvestments(Rmb100PrincipalInvestments/Shareholders'EquityCSIAggregatedTotal(excl.CSIAggregatedTotal(excl.Source:Wind,CICC 1Q- 1Q-3Q15YoY%QoQ-6.7%-3.2%11.7% -5.6%-17.3%- - 1Q- QoQ2,116 29.1%- TheproportionoffinancialassetstoproprietaryassetsincreasedsignificantlyinSensitivityanalysisoffourlistedH-shareADT:HuataiismostsensitiveADTSource:Wind,Companydata,CICCEPSSensitivityanalysisoffourlistedH-shareADT:HuataiismostsensitiveADTSource:Wind,Companydata,CICCEPSROI- - -53.42%-35.21%- -32.94%-20.84%- -19.88%-12.60%- -18.90%-12.57%- EPSCommision0.040%0.045% - - - - - - - - - Proptrading:CITICSismostsensitivetoproptradingCommissionrate:CITICSdownside,HuataiEPSMargintradingbalance(Rmb, - - - - - - - - EPSAverageDailyTurnoverofStocks(Rmb, - - - - - -25.33%-15.23%- -21.88%- RecommendationsandwatchSource:Wind,Companydata,CICCDongxingandOrienthaveRecommendationsandwatchSource:Wind,Companydata,CICCDongxingandOrienthavequitesmallfree Current Market Daily WatchCELandNoahmaysignificantlybenefitfromrecentstrongperformancesofA-sharebrokersandIPOCMSandGFmaybenefitfromearningscontributionfromIPO Current Market Recommendations:CELandCMSaretoppicksforH-shareandA-sharemarket,CEL(0165.HK):transformingintoamacroassetmanagementChinaEverbrightSecuritiesChinaEverbrightBankHKGroupDiscountMktcapofCELMarktomarketvaluepershareNAV(HKD,0CEL(0165.HK):transformingintoamacroassetmanagementChinaEverbrightSecuritiesChinaEverbrightBankHKGroupDiscountMktcapofCELMarktomarketvaluepershareNAV(HKD,0NumberofinvesteeprojectsunderEverbrightTotalamountoffundsSource:Companydata,CICCIncreasingfundsraisedandabundantproject Mktcap NAVby As~% shso/s(mn) byCEL mktprice(HKD'mn)oftotalNAVNAVusingmark-to-marketvalueofCESandCEBshowsupsideof(USD0 AssetsUnderSource:Companydata,CICCYoYGrowthTotalLess:businesstaxesandrelatedNetCostofTotaloperatingcostandIncomefromInterestInvestmentOtherincome/TotalotherincomeIncomebeforetaxesandlossfromequityinIncometaxLossfromequityinaffiliates,netofNetincome/lossattributabletoNoahpreferredsharesNetincome/lossattributabletoordinaryAdjustednetincomeattributable(USD0 AssetsUnderSource:Companydata,CICCYoYGrowthTotalLess:businesstaxesandrelatedNetCostofTotaloperatingcostandIncomefromInterestInvestmentOtherincome/TotalotherincomeIncomebeforetaxesandlossfromequityinIncometaxLossfromequityinaffiliates,netofNetincome/lossattributabletoNoahpreferredsharesNetincome/lossattributabletoordinaryAdjustednetincomeattributabletoNoahshareholders(non-GAAP)ConsolidatedStatementsofThird-partyRelatedpartyTotalLess:businesstaxesandrelatedNetOperatingcostandCostofSellingGeneralandadministrativeOtheroperatingTotaloperatingcostandIncomefromOtherincome/InterestInvestmentOtherincome/Lossonchangeinfairvalueof0000TotalotherincomeIncomebeforetaxesandlossfromequityinIncometaxLossfromequityinaffiliates,netofNetincome/lossattributabletoDeemeddividendonSeriesAconvertibleredeemablepreferredshares0000Netincome/lossattributabletoordinaryAdjustednetincomeattributabletoNoahshareholders(non-GAAP)ToppickofA-shareleadingbrokersCMS(600999.SH):innovativebusinessesspreadoutsteadily;H-shareIPOwouldfurtherpromoteitsbusinessesexpansionAbstractIncomeStatements NetFundFinancialAdvisory&OthersNetInterestNetInvestmentToppickofA-shareleadingbrokersCMS(600999.SH):innovativebusinessesspreadoutsteadily;H-shareIPOwouldfurtherpromoteitsbusinessesexpansionAbstractIncomeStatements NetFundFinancialAdvisory&OthersNetInterestNetInvestmentOfwhich:fromJiontventuresandAssociatesNetTradingSecurities'FairValueChangeGainsNetForeignCurrencies'ExchangeGainsOperatingBusinessTaxandGeneralOperatingandAdministrativeExpensesProvisionsforAssetLossesOperatingNon-operatingIncomeNon-operatingExpensesProfitbeforeIncomeTaxIncomeTaxNetNetProfitAttributabletoParentCompany's41633134154315CMSP/B94Minority NetRevenueNetInterestNetInvestmentOfwhich:fromJiontventuresandAssociatesNetTradingSecurities'FairValueChangeGainsNetForeignCurrencies'ExchangeGainsOperatingExpensesOperatingProfitProfitbeforeIncomeNetNetProfitAttributabletoParentCompany'sSource:Wind,CICCYoYGrowth Aleaderintheprimebrokeragebusinesswiththehighestcustodyscaleintheindustry.StrongcapabilityofcreatingassetmanagementproductsandhaveintroducednewproductssuchasMoMandHedgedprivateplacement.LeverageratiorosedramaticallywiththeannualizedROAEof26.05%in1Q-3Q15.H-shareIPOwouldfurtherpromotethecompany’sbusinessesexpansion.CES(601788.SH):H-shareIPOexpectation;benefitfromCEG AbstractIncomeStatements YoYGrowth NetRevenueNetCommissionsNetInterestNetInvestmentCES(601788.SH):H-shareIPOexpectation;benefitfromCEG AbstractIncomeStatements YoYGrowth NetRevenueNetCommissionsNetInterestNetInvestmentNetForeignCurrencies'ExchangeGainsOperatingExpensesProfitbeforeIncomeTaxIncomeTaxNetNetProfitAttributabletoParentCompany'sNetNetCommissionsAssetFundManagementFinancialAdvisory&OthersNetNetInvestmentOfwhich:fromJointventuresandAssociatesNetTradingSecurities'FairValueChangeGainsNetForeignCurrencies'ExchangeGainsOperatingBusinessTaxandGeneralOperatingandAdministrativeExpensesProvisionsforAssetLossesOperatingNon-operatingIncomeNon-operatingExpensesProfitbeforeIncomeTaxIncomeTaxNetNetProfitAttributabletoParentCompany's31618Minority CESP/B4Minority Source:Wind,CICCValuationTotalMarketFreeFloatingMarketCompanyHaitong-HHTSC-HGF-HValuationTotalMarketFreeFloatingMarketCompanyHaitong-HHTSC-HGF-HEPSBVPSCompany Source:Wind,CICC ValuationtableforcoveredUpdatesforUpdatesforinternetfinanceRoyalFlush(300033.SZ):athird-partyplatformtostandMainPCDZHJinrongjieStockHexunMainmobileMobileAppRoyalFlush(300033.SZ):athird-partyplatformtostandMainPCDZHJinrongjieStockHexunMainmobileMobileAppTradingMobileappuser435-5ProductallowsgoodwithLottery&userfriendlyEasytouse,withFeihuTradingsoftware.Hasuseful資料來源：中金公