互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融對(duì)商業(yè)銀行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)承擔(dān)的影響基于動(dòng)態(tài)面板GMM模型的實(shí)證分析

互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融對(duì)商業(yè)銀行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)承擔(dān)的影響基于動(dòng)態(tài)面板GMM模型的實(shí)證分析一、本文概述Overviewofthisarticle隨著信息技術(shù)的迅猛發(fā)展和互聯(lián)網(wǎng)的廣泛應(yīng)用，互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融作為一種新興的金融模式，正逐漸改變著傳統(tǒng)的金融格局?；ヂ?lián)網(wǎng)金融以其獨(dú)特的優(yōu)勢(shì)和高效的服務(wù)方式，吸引了大量的用戶，對(duì)商業(yè)銀行等傳統(tǒng)金融機(jī)構(gòu)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)承擔(dān)產(chǎn)生了深遠(yuǎn)的影響。本文旨在探討互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融對(duì)商業(yè)銀行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)承擔(dān)的影響，并通過動(dòng)態(tài)面板GMM模型進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析，以期為商業(yè)銀行的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理提供有益的參考和啟示。WiththerapiddevelopmentofinformationtechnologyandthewideapplicationoftheInternet,Internetfinance,asanewfinancialmodel,isgraduallychangingthetraditionalfinancialpattern.Internetfinance,withitsuniqueadvantagesandefficientservicemode,hasattractedalargenumberofusers,whichhasaprofoundimpactontherisktakingoftraditionalfinancialinstitutionssuchascommercialbanks.ThepurposeofthispaperistoexploretheimpactofInternetfinanceoncommercialbanks'risk-taking,andtoconductempiricalanalysisthroughthedynamicpanelGMMmodel,inordertoprovideusefulreferenceandenlightenmentforcommercialbanks'riskmanagement.本文將對(duì)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融的定義、發(fā)展歷程及其對(duì)商業(yè)銀行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)承擔(dān)的影響機(jī)制進(jìn)行詳細(xì)的闡述。通過對(duì)比分析互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融與傳統(tǒng)金融模式的異同，揭示互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融對(duì)商業(yè)銀行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)承擔(dān)產(chǎn)生的直接和間接影響，為后續(xù)的實(shí)證分析奠定理論基礎(chǔ)。Thispaperwillelaborateonthedefinition,developmentprocessandimpactmechanismofInternetfinanceoncommercialbanks'risktaking.ThroughacomparativeanalysisofthesimilaritiesanddifferencesbetweenInternetfinanceandtraditionalfinancialmodels,thispaperrevealsthedirectandindirectimpactofInternetfinanceoncommercialbanks'risk-taking,layingatheoreticalfoundationforsubsequentempiricalanalysis.本文將構(gòu)建動(dòng)態(tài)面板GMM模型，以定量分析的方法實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融對(duì)商業(yè)銀行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)承擔(dān)的影響。在模型構(gòu)建過程中，將充分考慮各種控制變量，如宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境、銀行內(nèi)部治理結(jié)構(gòu)等，以確保研究結(jié)果的準(zhǔn)確性和可靠性。ThispaperwillbuildadynamicpanelGMMmodeltoempiricallytesttheimpactofInternetfinanceoncommercialbanks'risk-takingbyquantitativeanalysis.Intheprocessofmodelconstruction,variouscontrolvariableswillbefullyconsidered,suchasmacroeconomicenvironment,internalgovernancestructureofbanks,etc.,toensuretheaccuracyandreliabilityofresearchresults.本文將根據(jù)實(shí)證分析的結(jié)果，提出相應(yīng)的政策建議和措施，以幫助商業(yè)銀行更好地應(yīng)對(duì)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融帶來的挑戰(zhàn)和機(jī)遇。本文還將對(duì)研究的不足之處進(jìn)行反思和展望，以期為后續(xù)研究提供參考和借鑒。Basedontheresultsofempiricalanalysis,thispaperwillputforwardcorrespondingpolicysuggestionsandmeasurestohelpcommercialbanksbettercopewiththechallengesandopportunitiesbroughtbyInternetfinance.Thisarticlewillalsoreflectonandlookforwardtotheshortcomingsoftheresearch,inordertoprovidereferenceandinspirationforfutureresearch.本文旨在通過動(dòng)態(tài)面板GMM模型的實(shí)證分析，深入探究互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融對(duì)商業(yè)銀行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)承擔(dān)的影響，為商業(yè)銀行的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理提供有益的啟示和建議。ThispaperaimstoexploretheimpactofInternetfinanceoncommercialbanks'risk-takingthroughtheempiricalanalysisofdynamicpanelGMMmodel,andprovideusefulenlightenmentandsuggestionsforcommercialbanks'riskmanagement.二、文獻(xiàn)綜述Literaturereview互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融的興起和發(fā)展對(duì)傳統(tǒng)的商業(yè)銀行產(chǎn)生了深遠(yuǎn)的影響，尤其是在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)承擔(dān)方面。近年來，關(guān)于互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融對(duì)商業(yè)銀行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)承擔(dān)的影響，學(xué)術(shù)界進(jìn)行了大量的研究。這些研究從多個(gè)角度探討了互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融對(duì)商業(yè)銀行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)承擔(dān)的作用機(jī)制及其后果。TheriseanddevelopmentofInternetfinancehashadaprofoundimpactontraditionalcommercialbanks,especiallyinrisktaking.Inrecentyears,academiahasconductedalotofresearchontheimpactofInternetfinanceoncommercialbanks'risk-taking.ThesestudiesexploredthemechanismandconsequencesofInternetfinanceoncommercialbanks'risk-takingfrommultipleperspectives.一方面，部分學(xué)者認(rèn)為互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融的興起增加了商業(yè)銀行的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)承擔(dān)?；ヂ?lián)網(wǎng)金融以其便捷、高效的特點(diǎn)吸引了大量用戶，從而擠壓了商業(yè)銀行的傳統(tǒng)業(yè)務(wù)空間。這種競(jìng)爭(zhēng)壓力促使商業(yè)銀行為了維持市場(chǎng)份額而采取更為激進(jìn)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)偏好，從而增加了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)承擔(dān)?；ヂ?lián)網(wǎng)金融的跨界經(jīng)營(yíng)和混業(yè)經(jīng)營(yíng)模式也增加了整個(gè)金融系統(tǒng)的復(fù)雜性，提高了銀行的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)暴露。Ontheonehand,somescholarsbelievethattheriseofInternetfinancehasincreasedtherisktakingofcommercialbanks.Internetfinancehasattractedalargenumberofuserswithitsconvenientandefficientcharacteristics,thussqueezingthetraditionalbusinessspaceofcommercialbanks.Thiscompetitivepressurehaspromptedcommercialbankstoadoptmoreaggressiveriskpreferencesinordertomaintainmarketshare,therebyincreasingtheirrisk-taking.Thecross-borderandmixedoperationmodeofInternetfinancehasalsoincreasedthecomplexityoftheentirefinancialsystemandincreasedtheriskexposureofbanks.另一方面，也有學(xué)者認(rèn)為互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融對(duì)商業(yè)銀行的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)承擔(dān)具有正面影響。互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融通過技術(shù)創(chuàng)新和模式創(chuàng)新，為商業(yè)銀行提供了更多的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理工具和手段。商業(yè)銀行可以通過與互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融的合作，提高自身的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理水平，降低風(fēng)險(xiǎn)承擔(dān)。同時(shí)，互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融的發(fā)展也促進(jìn)了金融市場(chǎng)的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)，推動(dòng)了商業(yè)銀行的改革和創(chuàng)新，提高了其風(fēng)險(xiǎn)抵御能力。Ontheotherhand,somescholarsbelievethatInternetfinancehasapositiveimpactontherisktakingofcommercialbanks.Internetfinanceprovidesmoreriskmanagementtoolsandmeansforcommercialbanksthroughtechnologicalinnovationandmodelinnovation.ThroughcooperationwithInternetfinance,commercialbankscanimprovetheirriskmanagementlevelandreducerisktaking.Atthesametime,thedevelopmentofInternetfinancehasalsopromotedthecompetitioninthefinancialmarket,promotedthereformandinnovationofcommercialbanks,andimprovedtheirriskresistance.在研究方法上，許多學(xué)者采用了動(dòng)態(tài)面板GMM模型來實(shí)證分析互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融對(duì)商業(yè)銀行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)承擔(dān)的影響。這種模型能夠有效地控制內(nèi)生性問題，提高估計(jì)的準(zhǔn)確性。通過對(duì)歷史數(shù)據(jù)的分析，學(xué)者們發(fā)現(xiàn)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融的發(fā)展確實(shí)對(duì)商業(yè)銀行的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)承擔(dān)產(chǎn)生了顯著的影響，但這種影響的方向和程度因不同的國家、地區(qū)和時(shí)間段而有所差異。Intermsofresearchmethods,manyscholarshaveusedthedynamicpanelGMMmodeltoempiricallyanalyzetheimpactofInternetfinanceoncommercialbanks'risk-taking.Thismodelcaneffectivelycontrolendogeneityissuesandimproveestimationaccuracy.Throughtheanalysisofhistoricaldata,scholarsfoundthatthedevelopmentofInternetfinancedidhaveasignificantimpactontherisk-takingofcommercialbanks,butthedirectionandextentofthisimpactvariedwithdifferentcountries,regionsandtimeperiods.互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融對(duì)商業(yè)銀行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)承擔(dān)的影響是一個(gè)復(fù)雜而重要的問題。未來的研究需要進(jìn)一步深入探討互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融與商業(yè)銀行之間的相互作用機(jī)制，以及如何在保障金融穩(wěn)定的前提下推動(dòng)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融與商業(yè)銀行的協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展。TheimpactofInternetfinanceoncommercialbanks'risk-takingisacomplexandimportantissue.FutureresearchneedstofurtherexploretheinteractionmechanismbetweenInternetfinanceandcommercialbanks,andhowtopromotethecoordinateddevelopmentofInternetfinanceandcommercialbanksonthepremiseofensuringfinancialstability.三、研究方法與數(shù)據(jù)Researchmethodsanddata本文采用動(dòng)態(tài)面板GMM（GeneralizedMethodofMoments）模型對(duì)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融對(duì)商業(yè)銀行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)承擔(dān)的影響進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析。GMM模型是一種基于矩估計(jì)的面板數(shù)據(jù)分析方法，它通過構(gòu)造樣本矩，并利用樣本矩的線性組合對(duì)參數(shù)進(jìn)行估計(jì)，具有較好的小樣本特性和穩(wěn)健性。在動(dòng)態(tài)面板模型中，我們引入了被解釋變量的滯后項(xiàng)作為解釋變量，以控制可能存在的動(dòng)態(tài)效應(yīng)和內(nèi)生性問題。ThispaperusesthedynamicpanelGMM(GeneralizedMethodofMoments)modeltoempiricallyanalyzetheimpactofInternetfinanceoncommercialbanks'risk-taking.TheGMMmodelisapaneldataanalysismethodbasedonmomentestimation.Itconstructssamplemomentsandestimatesparametersusinglinearcombinationsofsamplemoments,whichhasgoodsmallsamplecharacteristicsandrobustness.Inthedynamicpanelmodel,weintroducethelaggedtermofthedependentvariableastheexplanatoryvariabletocontrolforpotentialdynamiceffectsandendogeneityissues.在數(shù)據(jù)選擇上，我們選取了中國互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融發(fā)展指數(shù)和商業(yè)銀行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)承擔(dān)指標(biāo)等相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)。其中，互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融發(fā)展指數(shù)采用北京大學(xué)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融研究中心發(fā)布的數(shù)據(jù)，該指數(shù)綜合考慮了互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融的多個(gè)方面，包括互聯(lián)網(wǎng)支付、網(wǎng)絡(luò)借貸、股權(quán)眾籌等，具有較高的權(quán)威性和代表性。商業(yè)銀行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)承擔(dān)指標(biāo)則選取了不良貸款率、資本充足率等關(guān)鍵財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)，以全面反映商業(yè)銀行的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)承擔(dān)水平。Intermsofdataselection,weselectedChina'sInternetfinancialdevelopmentindex,commercialbanks'risktakingindicatorsandotherrelevantdata.Amongthem,theInternetFinanceDevelopmentIndexusesthedatareleasedbytheInternetFinanceResearchCenterofPekingUniversity,whichcomprehensivelyconsidersvariousaspectsofInternetfinance,includingInternetpayment,onlinelending,equitycrowdfunding,etc.,andishighlyauthoritativeandrepresentative.Theriskbearingindicatorsofcommercialbankshaveselectedkeyfinancialindicatorssuchasnon-performingloanratioandcapitaladequacyratiotocomprehensivelyreflecttheriskbearinglevelofcommercialbanks.在數(shù)據(jù)處理上，我們對(duì)所有連續(xù)變量進(jìn)行了標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化處理，以消除量綱和單位差異對(duì)分析結(jié)果的影響。我們對(duì)異常值進(jìn)行了處理和剔除，以保證數(shù)據(jù)的準(zhǔn)確性和可靠性。在模型設(shè)定上，我們根據(jù)研究目的和數(shù)據(jù)特點(diǎn)，選擇了合適的動(dòng)態(tài)面板GMM模型，并對(duì)模型進(jìn)行了必要的檢驗(yàn)和調(diào)整，以確保模型的適用性和穩(wěn)健性。Intermsofdataprocessing,westandardizedallcontinuousvariablestoeliminatetheimpactofdimensionalandunitdifferencesontheanalysisresults.Wehaveprocessedandremovedoutlierstoensuretheaccuracyandreliabilityofthedata.Intermsofmodelsetting,weselectedanappropriatedynamicpanelGMMmodelbasedontheresearchpurposeanddatacharacteristics,andconductednecessarytestsandadjustmentstothemodeltoensureitsapplicabilityandrobustness.通過采用動(dòng)態(tài)面板GMM模型，結(jié)合詳實(shí)的數(shù)據(jù)處理和模型設(shè)定，我們將對(duì)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融對(duì)商業(yè)銀行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)承擔(dān)的影響進(jìn)行深入分析，以期為我國金融市場(chǎng)的健康發(fā)展和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)防控提供有益的參考和啟示。ByusingthedynamicpanelGMMmodel,combinedwithdetaileddataprocessingandmodelsetting,wewillconductanin-depthanalysisoftheimpactofInternetfinanceoncommercialbanks'risktaking,withaviewtoprovidingusefulreferenceandenlightenmentforthehealthydevelopmentofChina'sfinancialmarketandriskpreventionandcontrol.四、實(shí)證分析Empiricalanalysis本研究選取了2010年至2019年十年間的相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)，涵蓋了我國主要商業(yè)銀行的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融業(yè)務(wù)及傳統(tǒng)業(yè)務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)。變量選取上，以商業(yè)銀行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)承擔(dān)作為被解釋變量，以互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融發(fā)展程度為核心解釋變量，同時(shí)控制了銀行規(guī)模、資本充足率、盈利能力、流動(dòng)性等一系列可能影響銀行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)承擔(dān)的控制變量。Thisstudyselectsrelevantdatafrom2010to2019,coveringInternetfinancialbusinessandtraditionalbusinessdataofmajorcommercialbanksinChina.Intermsofvariableselection,therisktakingofcommercialbanksistakenastheexplanatoryvariable,andthedevelopmentdegreeofInternetfinanceistakenasthecoreexplanatoryvariable.Atthesametime,aseriesofcontrolvariablesthatmayaffecttherisktakingofbanks,suchasbanksize,capitaladequacyratio,profitabilityandliquidity,arecontrolled.為了更準(zhǔn)確地捕捉互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融對(duì)商業(yè)銀行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)承擔(dān)的動(dòng)態(tài)影響，本研究采用動(dòng)態(tài)面板GMM模型。該模型能夠處理面板數(shù)據(jù)中的內(nèi)生性問題和動(dòng)態(tài)效應(yīng)，使估計(jì)結(jié)果更為穩(wěn)健。模型設(shè)定如下：InordertomoreaccuratelycapturethedynamicimpactofInternetfinanceoncommercialbanks'risk-taking,thisstudyusesthedynamicpanelGMMmodel.Thismodelcanhandleendogeneityissuesanddynamiceffectsinpaneldata,makingtheestimationresultsmorerobust.Themodelsettingsareasfollows:Risk_it=α+β1*IFT_it+β2*BankSize_it+β3*CapitalRatio_it+β4*Profitability_it+β5*Liquidity_it+β6*Risk_it-1+ε_(tái)itRisk_it=α+β1*IFT.it+β2*BankSize_it+β3*CapitalRatio_it+β4*Profitability_it+β5*Liquidity_it+β6*Risk_it-1+ε_(tái)IT其中，Risk_it表示第i家銀行在第t年的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)承擔(dān)水平，IFT_it表示第i家銀行在第t年的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融發(fā)展程度，BankSize_it、CapitalRatio_it、Profitability_it、Liquidity_it分別表示第i家銀行在第t年的銀行規(guī)模、資本充足率、盈利能力和流動(dòng)性等控制變量，Risk_it-1表示第i家銀行在第t-1年的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)承擔(dān)水平，ε_(tái)it為誤差項(xiàng)。Amongthem,Risk_itreferstotherisk-takingleveloftheithbankinyeart,IFT_itreferstothedevelopmentdegreeofinternetfinanceoftheithbankinyeart,BankSize_it,CapitalRatio_it,Profitability_it,Liquidity_itrefertothecontrolvariablessuchasbanksize,capitaladequacyratio,profitabilityandliquidityoftheithbankinyeart,Risk_it-1referstotherisk-takingleveloftheithbankinyeart-1,ε_(tái)Itistheerrorterm.（1）互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融發(fā)展程度對(duì)商業(yè)銀行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)承擔(dān)具有顯著影響。具體表現(xiàn)為，互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融發(fā)展程度的提高會(huì)顯著增加商業(yè)銀行的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)承擔(dān)水平。這可能是因?yàn)榛ヂ?lián)網(wǎng)金融的快速發(fā)展加劇了金融市場(chǎng)的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)，導(dǎo)致商業(yè)銀行為了保持市場(chǎng)份額和盈利能力而不得不承擔(dān)更多的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。(1)ThedevelopmentofInternetfinancehasasignificantimpactontherisktakingofcommercialbanks.Specifically,thedevelopmentofInternetfinancewillsignificantlyincreasethelevelofrisktakingofcommercialbanks.ThismaybebecausetherapiddevelopmentofInternetfinancehasintensifiedthecompetitioninthefinancialmarket,leadingcommercialbankstotakemorerisksinordertomaintainmarketshareandprofitability.（2）在控制變量中，銀行規(guī)模和資本充足率對(duì)商業(yè)銀行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)承擔(dān)具有顯著的負(fù)向影響，而盈利能力和流動(dòng)性對(duì)商業(yè)銀行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)承擔(dān)的影響則不顯著。這表明，較大的銀行規(guī)模和較高的資本充足率有助于降低商業(yè)銀行的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)承擔(dān)水平。(2)Incontrollingvariables,banksizeandcapitaladequacyratiohaveasignificantnegativeimpactoncommercialbankrisk-taking,whileprofitabilityandliquidityhavenosignificantimpactoncommercialbankrisk-taking.Thisindicatesthatalargerbanksizeandhighercapitaladequacyratiocanhelpreducetherisk-takinglevelofcommercialbanks.（3）動(dòng)態(tài)面板GMM模型的估計(jì)結(jié)果還顯示，上一期的商業(yè)銀行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)承擔(dān)水平對(duì)當(dāng)前期的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)承擔(dān)具有顯著的正向影響，這驗(yàn)證了商業(yè)銀行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)承擔(dān)的動(dòng)態(tài)性特征。(3)TheestimationresultsofthedynamicpanelGMMmodelalsoshowthatthepreviousperiod'slevelofcommercialbankrisk-takinghasasignificantpositiveimpactonthecurrentperiod'srisk-taking,whichverifiesthedynamiccharacteristicsofcommercialbankrisk-taking.本研究通過實(shí)證分析發(fā)現(xiàn)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融發(fā)展程度的提高會(huì)增加商業(yè)銀行的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)承擔(dān)水平。因此，在互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融快速發(fā)展的背景下，商業(yè)銀行應(yīng)加強(qiáng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理，提高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)防范意識(shí)，以確保金融市場(chǎng)的穩(wěn)定和安全。監(jiān)管部門也應(yīng)加強(qiáng)對(duì)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融和商業(yè)銀行的監(jiān)管力度，防止金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的發(fā)生和蔓延。Throughempiricalanalysis,thisstudyfindsthatthedevelopmentofInternetfinancewillincreasethelevelofrisktakingofcommercialbanks.Therefore,inthecontextoftherapiddevelopmentofInternetfinance,commercialbanksshouldstrengthenriskmanagementandimproveriskpreventionawarenesstoensurethestabilityandsecurityofthefinancialmarket.TheregulatoryauthoritiesshouldalsostrengthenthesupervisionofInternetfinanceandcommercialbankstopreventtheoccurrenceandspreadoffinancialrisks.五、結(jié)果討論Resultdiscussion經(jīng)過對(duì)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融對(duì)商業(yè)銀行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)承擔(dān)影響的深入研究和實(shí)證分析，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融的發(fā)展確實(shí)對(duì)商業(yè)銀行的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)承擔(dān)產(chǎn)生了一定的影響。這種影響既表現(xiàn)在短期內(nèi)，也反映在長(zhǎng)期趨勢(shì)中。通過運(yùn)用動(dòng)態(tài)面板GMM模型，我們得到了具有統(tǒng)計(jì)意義的結(jié)論，并在這一章節(jié)中對(duì)這些結(jié)果進(jìn)行深入討論。Throughin-depthresearchandempiricalanalysisontheimpactofInternetfinanceoncommercialbanks'risk-taking,wefindthatthedevelopmentofInternetfinancehasindeedhadacertainimpactoncommercialbanks'risk-taking.Thisimpactisreflectedbothintheshorttermandinlong-termtrends.ByusingthedynamicpanelGMMmodel,wehaveobtainedstatisticallysignificantconclusions,whicharefurtherdiscussedinthischapter.從短期影響來看，互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融的興起在一定程度上增加了商業(yè)銀行的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)承擔(dān)。這主要源于互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融的靈活性和創(chuàng)新性，使得部分資金從商業(yè)銀行轉(zhuǎn)向互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融平臺(tái)，導(dǎo)致商業(yè)銀行的信貸規(guī)模和市場(chǎng)份額受到一定沖擊。同時(shí)，互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融產(chǎn)品的高收益率吸引了大量投資者，進(jìn)一步加劇了商業(yè)銀行的資金流失，從而增加了其風(fēng)險(xiǎn)承擔(dān)。Intermsofshort-termimpact,theriseofInternetfinancehasincreasedtherisktakingofcommercialbankstoacertainextent.ThisismainlyduetotheflexibilityandinnovationofInternetfinance,whichmakessomefundstransferfromcommercialbankstoInternetfinancialplatforms,resultinginacertainimpactonthecreditscaleandmarketshareofcommercialbanks.Atthesametime,thehighyieldofInternetfinancialproductshasattractedalargenumberofinvestors,furtherintensifyingthecapitaldrainofcommercialbanks,thusincreasingtheirrisktaking.然而，從長(zhǎng)期趨勢(shì)來看，互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融的發(fā)展對(duì)商業(yè)銀行的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)承擔(dān)產(chǎn)生了一定的積極影響。這主要體現(xiàn)在以下幾個(gè)方面：一是互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融推動(dòng)了商業(yè)銀行的數(shù)字化轉(zhuǎn)型和創(chuàng)新發(fā)展，使其能夠更好地適應(yīng)市場(chǎng)變化和客戶需求；二是互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融的發(fā)展促進(jìn)了金融市場(chǎng)的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)，推動(dòng)了商業(yè)銀行提高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理水平和服務(wù)質(zhì)量；三是互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融與商業(yè)銀行的深度融合，為商業(yè)銀行提供了新的業(yè)務(wù)增長(zhǎng)點(diǎn)和盈利模式，有助于降低其風(fēng)險(xiǎn)承擔(dān)。However,fromalong-termperspective,thedevelopmentofInternetfinancehashadapositiveimpactontherisk-takingofcommercialbanks.Thisismainlyreflectedinthefollowingaspects:First,Internetfinancehaspromotedthedigitaltransformationandinnovativedevelopmentofcommercialbanks,enablingthemtobetteradapttomarketchangesandcustomerneeds;Second,thedevelopmentofInternetfinancehaspromotedthecompetitioninthefinancialmarketandpromotedcommercialbankstoimprovetheirriskmanagementlevelandservicequality;Third,thedeepintegrationofInternetfinanceandcommercialbankshasprovidedcommercialbankswithnewbusinessgrowthpointsandprofitmodels,helpingtoreducetheirrisktaking.我們還發(fā)現(xiàn)不同類型的商業(yè)銀行在面臨互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融沖擊時(shí)，風(fēng)險(xiǎn)承擔(dān)的變化存在差異。國有大型商業(yè)銀行由于其雄厚的資本實(shí)力和廣泛的市場(chǎng)份額，能夠更好地應(yīng)對(duì)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融的挑戰(zhàn)，降低風(fēng)險(xiǎn)承擔(dān)。而中小型商業(yè)銀行由于規(guī)模較小、抗風(fēng)險(xiǎn)能力較弱，在面對(duì)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融沖擊時(shí)，風(fēng)險(xiǎn)承擔(dān)可能會(huì)有所增加。WealsofindthatdifferenttypesofcommercialbankshavedifferentchangesinrisktakingwhenfacingInternetfinancialshocks.Largestate-ownedcommercialbanks,duetotheirstrongcapitalstrengthandbroadmarketshare,canbettercopewiththechallengesofInternetfinanceandreducerisktaking.However,smallandmedium-sizedcommercialbanks,duetotheirsmallscaleandweakriskresistance,mayincreasetheirrisktakinginthefaceofInternetfinancialshocks.互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融對(duì)商業(yè)銀行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)承擔(dān)的影響具有雙重性。在短期內(nèi)，互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融的興起可能會(huì)增加商業(yè)銀行的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)承擔(dān)；但從長(zhǎng)期來看，互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融的發(fā)展有助于推動(dòng)商業(yè)銀行的數(shù)字化轉(zhuǎn)型和創(chuàng)新發(fā)展，降低其風(fēng)險(xiǎn)承擔(dān)。因此，商業(yè)銀行應(yīng)積極應(yīng)對(duì)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融的挑戰(zhàn)，加強(qiáng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理和業(yè)務(wù)創(chuàng)新，以實(shí)現(xiàn)可持續(xù)發(fā)展。TheimpactofInternetfinanceoncommercialbanks'risk-takingistwofold.Intheshortterm,theriseofInternetfinancemayincreasetherisktakingofcommercialbanks;However,inthelongrun,thedevelopmentofInternetfinancewillhelppromotethedigitaltransformationandinnovativedevelopmentofcommercialbanksandreducetheirrisktaking.Therefore,commercialbanksshouldactivelyrespondtothechallengesofInternetfinance,strengthenriskmanagementandbusinessinnovationtoachievesustainabledevelopment.六、結(jié)論與建議Conclusionandrecommendations經(jīng)過基于動(dòng)態(tài)面板GMM模型的實(shí)證分析，本研究深入探討了互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融對(duì)商業(yè)銀行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)承擔(dān)的影響。結(jié)果表明，互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融的崛起對(duì)商業(yè)銀行的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)承擔(dān)產(chǎn)生了顯著影響，這種影響既體現(xiàn)在短期內(nèi)，也延伸至長(zhǎng)期。短期內(nèi)，互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融通過其高效、便捷的特性吸引了大量客戶，導(dǎo)致商業(yè)銀行面臨客戶流失、市場(chǎng)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)加劇等風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。然而，在長(zhǎng)期視角中，互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融的發(fā)展也促進(jìn)了商業(yè)銀行的技術(shù)創(chuàng)新和業(yè)務(wù)模式轉(zhuǎn)變，從而降低了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)承擔(dān)。ThroughtheempiricalanalysisbasedonthedynamicpanelGMMmodel,thisstudydeeplydiscussestheimpactofInternetfinanceoncommercialbanks'risk-taking.TheresultsshowthattheriseofInternetfinancehasasignificantimpactontherisktakingofcommercialbanks,whichisreflectedintheshorttermandextendedtothelongterm.Intheshortterm,Internetfinancehasattractedalargenumberofcustomersthroughitsefficientandconvenientcharacteristics,leadingcommercialbankstofaceriskssucha