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QUANTITATIVEPERSPECTIVES
ClearedforTakeoff?
Q12024
ClearedforTakeoff?
Introduction
Venturecapitalinvestmentisacriticaldriverofinnovationandeconomic
growth,providingfundingtostartupswithhighgrowthpotential.TheVC
landscapehasundergonesignificantshiftsinrecentyears,influencedby
ever-evolvingmarketconditionsandemergingtechnologies.Whilestartups’needforVCinvestmentcontinuestooutpacethesupplyofdollarsavailable,thespreadofinvestmentactivityacrossverticalsunderscoresshifting
investorinterests.
Inthisreport,wedissectthedynamicsoftheverticalssoftwareasaservice(SaaS)andartificialintelligence&machinelearning(AI&ML)withinthe
venturecapitallandscape.Wecomparethechallenges,opportunities,andinvestmentprospectsoftheseverticalsoverthepastfiveyearsandevaluatetheoutlooksforeachwithinthecurrentmarketenvironment.ThedeclineofVCdealactivityhasleftmanySaaSstartupscapitalstarved,whileAI&MLremainsafocalpointofventuredollars.Thereleaseoftransformative
technologieslikeOpenAI’sChatGPTfurtherfueledinvestorinterestinAI&
MLstartups.However,ouranalysissuggeststhatearly-stageSaaS
companiesarestilllikelytooutperformAI&MLcompanies,yetweseeupsidenotfactoredinduetoAI&ML’simpactbeingstillinitsnascency.
DespiteachallengingIPOdroughtandconcernsoverunsustainable
consumerspending,therearesignsofoptimism,withjobgains,
improvementsinconsumersentiment,andapotentialresurgenceinpubliclistingspointingtowardaresurgenceinexitactivity.
PublishedonMarch15,2024
PitchBookData,Inc.
JohnGabbertFounder,CEO
NizarTarhuniVicePresident,InstitutionalResearchandEditorial
DanielCook,CFAHeadofQuantitativeResearch
Research
SusanHuAssociateQuantitativeResearchAnalyst
susan.hu
@
KyleStanford,CAIALeadAnalyst,VentureCapital
kyle.stanford@
ZaneCarmean,CFA,CAIALeadAnalyst,QuantitativeandFundsResearch
zane.carmean@
MilesOstroffAssociateQuantitativeResearchAnalyst
miles.ostroff@
Contact
pbinstitutionalresearch@
COPYRIGHT?2024byPitchBookData,Inc.Allrightsreserved.Nopartofthispublicationmaybereproducedinanyformorbyanymeans—graphic,electronic,ormechanical,includingphotocopying,recording,taping,andinformationstorageandretrievalsystems—withouttheexpresswrittenpermissionofPitchBookData,Inc.Contentsarebasedoninformationfromsourcesbelievedtobereliable,butaccuracyand
completenesscannotbeguaranteed.Nothinghereinshouldbeconstruedasanypast,currentorfuturerecommendationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranoffertosell,orasolicitationofanoffertobuyanysecurity.Thismaterialdoesnotpurporttocontainalloftheinformationthataprospectiveinvestormaywishtoconsiderandisnottoberelieduponassuchorusedinsubstitutionfortheexerciseofindependentjudgment.
2PITCHBOOKQUANTITATIVEPERSPECTIVES
3
CLEAREDFORTAKEOFF?
Keytakeaways
?Overall,2023wasaslowyearforVCactivity.Thelackofcapitalavailabilitycontinuestobehighlightedbythedemand/supplyratioacrossallstagesandsectorsofVC.AI&MLhasdominatedtotaldealmakingactivity,makingup35.4%ofthetotalcapitalinvestedinVC.
?Historically,SaaShasbeenthemostlucrativeareaofinvestmentforVCinvestors.However,followingthereleaseofChatGPT,AI&MLhastakencenterstage,withvaluationsofprivatecompaniesinthespacegrowingfasterthanSaaScompanyvaluations.
?ThepoorexitenvironmentinthelasttwoyearsledtoabuildupofpapervaluationswithineachsectorthatisroughlythreetimesthatofthepublicmarketcapitalizationofVC-backedcompaniesthatpubliclylistedinthelastfiveyears,signalingasignificantbacklogofcapitalwaitingtoexitandtheoverweightbalanceofvalueheldwithinprivatemarkets.
?Encouragingmacroeconomicconditionsalleviatesomeuncertaintyintheprivatemarketsandsetanoptimistictonefor2024.PubliccompaniesthathaverecentlycompletedanIPOhavestartedtoseeapickupinrevenuegrowthandvaluations.
PITCHBOOKQUANTITATIVEPERSPECTIVES
CLEAREDFORTAKEOFF?
Boardinghasstarted
4PITCHBOOKQUANTITATIVEPERSPECTIVES
5
CLEAREDFORTAKEOFF?
VCdemandisoutpacingsupply,withinvestmentactivitynotkeeping
pacewithhighproportionofstartupsseekingcapital.
EstimatedstartupdemandforVCinvestmentrelativetosupply
3.0x
2.5x
2.0x
1.5x
1.0x
0.5x
0.0x
2.0x
1.6x
Moredemand
thansupplyof
VCdollars
1.5x
1.0xisneutral.
MoreVC
dollars
suppliedthan
estimated
2024*
2019
2020
2021
2022
Late-StageIndex
2023
demand
Early-StageIndex
Venture-GrowthIndex
Source:PitchBook?Geography:US?*AsofFebruary29,2024
PITCHBOOKQUANTITATIVEPERSPECTIVES
The
capitaldemand/supply
ratio
estimatestheamountofcapitaldemandedbyUS
startupsasaratioofsupply
brokenoutbystage.
Demandiscalculatedby
estimatinghowmuchcapitalcompanieswillraiseintheirnextroundandspreadingthatamountoverthehistorical
probabilityofraisinginthe
future.Capitalsupplyuses
observedVCdealvalue.
CLEAREDFORTAKEOFF?
SaaShasbeenastapleofmanyVCinvestmentportfoliosinthelastdecade,butwiththedeclinein
VCdealactivity,SaaSstartups’needforcapitalhasbeenlargelyunmet.
SaaSVCDealmakingIndicatorbyquarterSaaScapitaldemand/supplyratiobyquarter
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
5x
4x
4.0x
74.3
65.0
3x
50.0isneutral.
62.9
2.1x
2x
1.5x
1x
1.0xisneutral.
0x
20192020202120222023*
20192020202120222023*
Early-StageIndexLate-StageIndexVenture-GrowthIndexEarly-StageIndexLate-StageIndexVenture-GrowthIndex
Source:
PitchBook
?Geography:US?*AsofDecember31,2023
6PITCHBOOKQUANTITATIVEPERSPECTIVES
7
CLEAREDFORTAKEOFF?
WhileAI&MLhasremainedlesssusceptibletochangesinhistoricaltrends,outsizeddealslike
OpenAI’s$10billionlate-stageroundgreatlyimpactthe“supply”ofcapital.
AI&MLVCDealmakingIndicatorbyquarter*AggregateAI&MLcapitaldemand/supplyratio*
100
90
80
73.1
70
60
52.9
50
50.0isneutral.
40
30
20
10
0
20192020202120222023
Early-StageIndexLate-StageIndexVenture-GrowthIndex
71.5
PITCHBOOKQUANTITATIVEPERSPECTIVES
3x
outsizeddealslikeOpenAI’s
$10billionlate-stageround.
OpenAIisinboththeAI&ML
andSaaSbuckets.
2.0x
2x
1x
1.0xisneutral.
0x
20192020202120222023
Supplyisinflatedfrom
Source:
PitchBook
?Geography:US?*AsofDecember31,2023
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
CLEAREDFORTAKEOFF?
VCinvestorsappeartobepivoting.Despitebeingaslowyearfordealmaking,theshareofVC
dollarsinvestedinAI&MLacceleratedto35.4%in2023…
AI&MLVCdealactivitybyquarterAI&MLVCdealvalue($B)bysegmentandshareofallVCdealvalue
$25
$20
$15
$10
$5
$0
1000
358
20172018201920202021202220232024**
一Dealvalue($B)—Dealcount
$50
$40
$30
$20
$10
$0
35%
18%
21%22%
22%22%
201820192020202120222023*
Autonomousmachines一Verticalapplications
AI&MLsemiconductors
Horizontalplatforms
-ShareoftotalVCdeals
Source:PitchBook?Geography:US?*AsofJanuary31,2024?**AsofFebruary28,2024
8PITCHBOOKQUANTITATIVEPERSPECTIVES
CLEAREDFORTAKEOFF?
…withlate-stageunicornvaluationsreboundingfasterthanVC’spreviousdarling,SaaS.Sincethe
launchofChatGPTinlate2022,AI&MLunicornshaveoutperformedonpaper.
MorningstarPitchBookUnicornIndexreturnsbyselectsector*MorningstarPitchBookUnicornIndexreturnsbyselectsector
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Mar2021Sep2021Mar2022Sep2022Mar2023Sep2023
AI&MLSaaS
9PITCHBOOKQUANTITATIVEPERSPECTIVES
25%
20%
ChatGPTlaunchedonNovember30,2022.
15%
10%
5%
0%
5%
10%
*
DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan20222023202320232023202320232023202320232023202320232024
AI&MLSaaS
Sources:
Morningstar
,
PitchBook
?Geography:Global?*AsofJanuary31,2024
CLEAREDFORTAKEOFF?
Topvaluationsofearly-stageAI&MLstartupshaveseenanupticksinceChatGPT’srelease,
thoughnottotheextentseenin2021.Growthoftop-decileSaaSvaluationshasbeensubdued.
Rollingsix-monthaveragetop-decilepre-moneyvaluationmultiplesfornewdealsbyselectvertical,rebasedtoDecemberofstartingyear
3.0x
2.5x
2.0x
1.5x
1.0x
Werebasedthetop-decilepre-moneyvaluationsofeachcohortto
1.0totrackhowthetopendofeachverticalhasseenvaluations
inflate.AI&MLhastakenoff,butnottotheextentthatwesaw
from2020to2022.
AI&ML:1.5x
SaaS:1.1x
AI&ML:2.9x
SaaS:2.7x
2020to2022
2022to2024*
0.5x
16
12
4
Dec
8
MonthssincestartofcohortinDecember
Source:PitchBook?Geography:US?*AsofFebruary28,2024
10PITCHBOOKQUANTITATIVEPERSPECTIVES
CLEAREDFORTAKEOFF?
DespitethefocusonAI&ML,ouranalysisstillsuggeststhatearly-
stageSaaScompaniesarelikelytooutperformtheaveragevertical…
Annualizedexpectedreturnsrelativetothecross-verticalaverage*
SaaS
Cybersecurity
Gaming AI&ML FintechClimatetech
Mobilitytech
AgtechFoodtech
IoT
Cross-verticalaverage:+23.1%
+1.1%
+0.8%
+0.4%
+5.5%
+0.2%
+0.0%
SaaScompaniesareexpectedto
outperformthecross-verticalaverageby
anet5.5%onanannualizedbasis.
-2.3%
-2.3%
-0.7%
-2.7%
Outperform
Underperform
Source:
PitchBook
?Geography:Global?*AsofDecember31,2023
11PITCHBOOKQUANTITATIVEPERSPECTIVES
Expectedreturnsforeachverticalarebasedonanaggregationoftheexpectedreturnsfortheunderlyingcompanies.Company-levelreturnsaredeterminedfromtheexit-typepredictionsandhistoricalreturnsbyseries.Formoreinformation,pleaseseeour
VCEmergingOpportunities
reportandtheVCExitPredictor
methodologylocatedinthe
PitchBookHelpCenter
.
Thecross-verticalaveragereturnof23.1%isprovidedasahistorical
baselinevalueandshouldnotbe
reliedonasaforecast.Thisbaselinevalueisderivedfromtheaverageofdeal-levelreturndatafrom2000to2021andcanvarysignificantly
basedontheenvironmentatanygiventime.Therelativereturnsforeachvertical,however,areamorerobustforward-lookingmeasurebecausetheyareunaffectedby
factorsthatimpacttheentireVCecosystem,suchasinterestrates,availablefunding,andeconomicgrowth.
12
CLEAREDFORTAKEOFF?
…andsimulationsofexitoutcomesprovideevidencethatbets
placedinearly-stageSaaSmayleadtobetterpayoffs.
DistributionsofrelativeannualizedexpectedreturnsbasedonMonteCarlosimulations*
Source:
PitchBook
?Geography:Global?*AsofDecember31,2023
PITCHBOOKQUANTITATIVEPERSPECTIVES
Toassesstheuncertaintyofthe
relativeexpectedreturnsshownonthepriorpage,weran10,000
MonteCarlosimulationsthat
randomlygeneratedexitoutcomesforeachcompanybasedontheexitprobabilitiesfromtheVCExit
Predictor.Ateachiteration,we
thenusedtherandomexit
outcomestocalculatethereturnforeachvertical.Weassumedthatexitoutcomesbetweenpairsof
companieswerepositively
correlated—thedegreetowhich
wasbasedonasinglecommon
factor,aswellasfactorsforeach
vertical.
Thisanalysissuggeststhatthere
arethreetiersofverticalsbasedonexpectedperformance.SaaSis
expectedtooutperformwithhighconfidence,whileagriculturaltech(agtech),foodtech,andInternetofThings(IoT)areexpectedto
underperform.Meanwhile,the
remainingverticalsformamiddletierwhereintherelative
performanceoutcomesaremuchlesscertain.
CLEAREDFORTAKEOFF?
Intotheclouds
13PITCHBOOKQUANTITATIVEPERSPECTIVES
CLEAREDFORTAKEOFF?
PublicequityinvestorsappeartoagreewithSaaS’sprospects.VC-backedSaaScompaniesthat
recentlycompletedanIPOaretradingathighermultiplesthanAI&MLinthepublicmarkets.
Price/salesmultiplesofVC-backedIPOsinSaaSandAI&ML
45x
40x
35x
30x
25x
20x
15x
10x
5x
0x
Five-yearrollingwindowofVC-
backedIPOs.Forexample,2019datapointswillincludeIPOsfromthe
years2014to2019.
10.0x
6.6x
2019
2020
2021
2022
—AI&ML—SaaS
2023
2024*
Source:PitchBook?Geography:US?*AsofFebruary28,2024
14PITCHBOOKQUANTITATIVEPERSPECTIVESNote:Fiveyearsofinclusioninindexedconstituents
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
CLEAREDFORTAKEOFF?
However,crimpedvaluationmultiplesledtoanIPOdroughtin2022and2023.Arecordnumberof
VC-backedcompaniesarelookingforexits…
VCcompanycountbystagePubliclistingcountbystageoflastVCfinancinground
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
Therearecurrentlymorethan
54,000VCstartupsintheUS
ecosystem.Themorematurethe
company’sstage,themorelikelythecompanyistopubliclylist.
*
Pre-seed/seedEarly-stageVCLate-stageVCVenturegrowth
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024*
Early-stageVCLate-stageVCVenturegrowth
Source:PitchBook?Geography:US?*AsofFebruary28,2024
15PITCHBOOKQUANTITATIVEPERSPECTIVES
CLEAREDFORTAKEOFF?
…buteveninnormaltimes,publiclistingsarerare.Thelasttwo
yearshavebeentheworstoverthelastdecade...
ShareofVC-backedcompaniesthatpubliclylistedbystage
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
0.1%
*
0.9%
0.2%
2014201520162017201820192020202120222023*
Early-stageVCLate-stageVCVenturegrowth
Source:PitchBook?Geography:US?*AsDecember31,2023
16PITCHBOOKQUANTITATIVEPERSPECTIVES
BasedonourestimatesfortheuniverseofVC-backed
startups,wecomparethe
proportionoffirmsthat
publiclylistedeachyear.By
averagingtheproportionfrom2015to2019,wenextestimatethenumberofpubliclistingstherewouldbeunder“normal”exitconditions.
CLEAREDFORTAKEOFF?
…leadingtoabuildupofpapervaluations.Themarketcapofcompaniesthathavecompletedan
IPOinthelastfiveyearsisroughlyone-thirdofaggregateprivatemarketvaluations.
AI&MLmarketcapofrecentIPOsversusaggregatepost-moneyvaluationofstill-private,VC-backedfirms
SaaSmarketcapofrecentIPOsversusaggregatepost-money
valuationofstill-private,VC-backedfirms
$1,200
$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200
$168$179$547$313$629$885$255$1,173$329$1,115
$0
20192020202120222023*
Marketcap($B)Aggregatepost-moneyvaluation($B)
17PITCHBOOKQUANTITATIVEPERSPECTIVES
$1,200
$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200
$83$149$253$217$279$525$125$678$260$721
$0
20192020202120222023*
Marketcap($B)Aggregatepost-moneyvaluation($B)
Source:PitchBook?Geography:US?*AsofDecember31,2023
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
CLEAREDFORTAKEOFF?
ArecordnumberofSaaScompanieswereleftoutofnewofferings,andtheyarenowfacing
challengesinnavigatinggrowthwhileprivate.
SaaSVCcompanycountbystage
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
*
Pre-seed/seedEarly-stageVCLate-stageVCVenturegrowth
18PITCHBOOKQUANTITATIVEPERSPECTIVES
SaaS2023publiclistingcountversusshortfallbasedon2015-2019averagepubliclistingratebystage*
25
05101520
1
8
Early-stageVC
10
4
Late-stageVC
16
4
Venturegrowth
ActualpubliclistingcountUnfilledlistingcountbasedonhistoricalaverage
Source:PitchBook?Geography:US?*AsofFebruary28,2024
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
Early-stageVC
1
6
Late-stageVC
2
6
Venturegrowth
CLEAREDFORTAKEOFF?
DespitehypeinAI&MLVCdeals,exitactivityhasfallenshortofexpectations.
AI&MLVCcompanycountbystageAI&ML2023publiclistingcountversusshortfallbasedon2015-2019
averageIPOratebystage*
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
*
Pre-seed/seedEarly-stageVCLate-stageVCVenturegrowth
0246810
6
ActualpubliclistingcountUnfilledlistingcountbasedonhistoricalaverage
Source:PitchBook?Geography:US?*AsofFebruary28,2024
19PITCHBOOKQUANTITATIVEPERSPECTIVES
5
8
7
14
8
20
CLEAREDFORTAKEOFF?
Twomonthsinto2024,IPOshavenottakenoff,butthereisoptimismforaresurgence.Several
notableVC-backedcompaniesaretargetinganIPOthisyearifthemacroenvironmentallows.
2024publiclistingcountversusshortfallbasedon2015-2019averageIPOratebystageandselectvertical*
05101520
Early-stageVC
AI&ML
SaaS
Late-stageVC
AI&ML
SaaS
Venturegrowth
AI&ML
SaaS
ActualpubliclistingcountUnfilledlistingcountbasedonhistoricalaverage
Source:PitchBook?Geography:US?*AsofFebruary28,2024
20PITCHBOOKQUANTITATIVEPERSPECTIVES
CLEAREDFORTAKEOFF?
Clearskiesahead?
21PITCHBOOKQUANTITATIVEPERSPECTIVES
CLEAREDFORTAKEOFF?
Theabove-trendrealGDPin2023bringstheUSclosertoasuccessfulsoftlanding.GDPgrowth
forecastsaremuted,butrecessionfearshavenoticeablyreceded.
RealGDPcomparedwithtrendfollowingtheglobalfinancialcrisis(GFC)*
$24$22$20$18$16$14$12
$10
Recession
Q420233.3%
34.8%
-28.0%
2006
2000
2002
2004
2008
2010
2012
2014
20162018202020222024E
Post-GFCtrend
Next-four-quarterforecast
RealGDP($T)
Annualizedquarterlygrowthrate
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
Sources:
BureauofEconomicAnalysis
,
WallStreetJournalEconomicForecastingSurvey
?Geography:US?*AsofDecember31,2023
22PITCHBOOKQUANTITATIVEPERSPECTIVES
CLEAREDFORTAKEOFF?
Strongjobgainshavedriventheunemploymentratebacktothelowsof2019.Whilepositive,job
creationhascooledtotheaveragegrowthofthepre-pandemicdecade.
QoQjobcreationchange*Unemploymentrate*
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
Average2010-2019
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
11.0%
3.5%
3.7%
-8%
2010201220142016201820202022
0%
2010201220142016201820202022
Source:
BureauofLaborStatistics
?Geography:US?*AsofDecember31,2023
23PITCHBOOKQUANTITATIVEPERSPECTIVES
CLEAREDFORTAKEOFF?
Consumersarestillwary,butsentimenthasimprovedover2022andearly2023…
UniversityofMichiganConsumerSentimentIndex*
125
100
75
50
25
Median:88.3
69.7
1990199520002005201020152020
Source:
UniversityofMichigan
?Geography:US?*AsofDecember31,2023
24PITCHBOOKQUANTITATIVEPERSPECTIVES
CLEAREDFORTAKEOFF?
…andYoYUSretailsalesgrowthcontinuestotrendpositive.However,adeclineinthepersonal
savingrateandrisingdelinquencyratesindicateunsustainableconsumerspending.
YoYretailsalesbymonth
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
10%
20%
2020202120222023*
Personalsavingrateandshareofbalance90+daysdelinquentbyloantype*
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
2003200620092012201520182021
PersonalsavingrateMortgageCreditcard
Sources:
CensusBureau
,
FederalReserveBankofSt.Louis
,
FederalReserveBankofNewYork
?Geography:US?*AsofDecember31,2023
25PITCHBOOKQUANTITATIVEPERSPECTIVES
CLEAREDFORTAKEOFF?
RecentIPOsprovideaproxyforbusinessfundamentalsoflate-stageVC-backedcompanies.SaaS
revenuegrowthhasslowedfrom2021...
SaaSrevenuegrowthdispersionofVC-backedIPOcompaniesbyquarter
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
Q1
Q2Q3Q4
2019
Q1
Q2Q3Q4
2020
Q1
Q2Q3Q4
2021
Q1Q2Q3Q4
2022
Bottomdecile
Q1
Q2Q3
2023*
Q4
TopandbottomquartilerangeTopdecileMedian
Source:PitchBook?Geography:US?*AsofDecember31,2023
Note:VC-backedIPOsincludedforfiveyears.LimitedQ42023data:25of38companieshavereported.
26PITCHBOOKQUANTITATIVEPERSPECTIVES
CLEAREDFORTAKEOFF?
…andAI&MLhasfollowedasimilartrend.Despitetheperceivedpotentialofthisvertical,wehave
yettoseerevenuegrowthfigurespickupmeaningfully.
AI&MLrevenuegrowthdispersionofVC-backedIPOcompaniesbyquarter
140%120%100%80%60%40%20%0%
-20%-40%
-60%
Q1
Q2Q3Q4
2019
Q1
Q2Q3Q4
2020
Q1
Q2Q3Q4
2021
Q1Q2Q3Q4
2022
Bottomdecile
Q1
Q2Q3
2023*
Q4
TopandbottomquartilerangeTopdecileMedian
Source:PitchBook?Geography:US?*AsofDecember31,2023
Note:
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