【中信期貨有色與新材料】美聯(lián)儲1月會議紀要偏鷹有色反彈或承壓-日報20240223 2024-2-23 92436 1

2024-02-232024-02-23為關注、收到或閱讀本報告內(nèi)容而視相關人員為客戶；市場有風險，投資需謹慎。如本報告涉及行業(yè)分析或上市公司相關內(nèi)容，旨對任何主體進行或不進行某項行為的建議或意見，不得將本報告的任何內(nèi)容據(jù)以作為中信期貨所作的承諾或聲明。在任何情況下，任何主體依據(jù)本報告所進行的任何作為或不作為，中信期貨不承擔任何責投資咨詢業(yè)務資格：證監(jiān)許可【2012】669號330215中信期貨貴金屬指數(shù)中信期貨有色金屬指數(shù)280165230115A-23J-23O-23投資咨詢業(yè)務資格：證監(jiān)許可【2012】669號330215中信期貨貴金屬指數(shù)中信期貨有色金屬指數(shù)280165230115A-23J-23O-23J-24報告要點一、行情觀點銅銅觀點：市場再度聚焦供應，銅價領漲有色制銅價反彈高度。短期銅價預計維持震蕩整理走勢，繼續(xù)關注滬銅累庫節(jié)鋁間累庫幅度相對偏低，現(xiàn)貨表現(xiàn)較強，同時國內(nèi)現(xiàn)貨進口虧損有所收窄，鋁價下鋅鋅觀點：海外鋅錠頻繁交倉，鋅價震蕩承壓省市緩建或停建基礎設施項目，市場對后續(xù)基建需求預期有所下降看，鋅礦供應偏緊邏輯逐步凸顯，鋅價底部逐漸夯實，短期受宏觀情緒鉛鉛觀點：替換需求即將邊際轉(zhuǎn)弱，雨雪天氣影響運輸或遲緩累庫注碳酸鋰現(xiàn)貨價格波動及鋰電替代相關產(chǎn)業(yè)面鎳“HUAYOUgx”鎳品牌上市申請。此次申請品牌是來自廣/噸以上。不過于電鎳而言，當前供應強度尚大，市場資源不見明顯緊俏，海外元/噸-升水480元/噸。目前現(xiàn)貨成交復期于正月十五之后，需繼續(xù)觀察其強度，原料價格或有探漲可能，保宵節(jié)后不銹鋼市場恢復強度，鎳鐵成交價格或有補漲可能，不銹鋼雖利潤錫錫觀點：基本面好轉(zhuǎn)，錫價高位震蕩工業(yè)硅觀點：需求仍然偏弱，硅價弱勢震蕩4.65%。通運力下降，部分煤礦受氣候影響有短暫的生求兩重壓力，企穩(wěn)反彈需要看到工業(yè)硅庫存顯著去化，預期短期價格弱勢碳酸鋰觀點：供應擾動傳聞影響，鋰價沖高回落產(chǎn)。目前碳酸鋰價格收消息擾動有所上漲，但其彈性依舊受需求壓制，目等待節(jié)后補庫證實或證偽，但若下游未見補庫，價格將震蕩偏弱運 二、行情監(jiān)測上海物貿(mào)現(xiàn)貨升水7006005004003002000-100-2002023-05-092023-08-092023-11-092024-02-0940200-20-40-60-80-100-120-140LME銅現(xiàn)貨升貼水（0-3）2023-05-112023-08-112023-11-112024-02-11洋山港銅升水8060402002023-03-142023-06-142023-09-142023-12-146950069000685006800067500670002024/02/222024/02/202024/02/212024/02/191月期2月期3月期4月期5月期6月期7月期250000200000150000100000500000庫存注銷倉單比例80%70%60%50%40%30%20%0%COMEX:銅:庫存500004500040000350003000025000200001500010000500002023-08-142023-11-142024-02-142023-05-222023-08-222023-11-222024-02-2240003000200010000SMM氧化鋁指數(shù)-平均價氧化鋁(貴州)-平均價 氧化鋁(山東)-平均價氧化鋁(河南)-平均價氧化鋁(山西)-平均價2023/042023/062023/082023/102023/122024/02澳洲氧化鋁FOB-平均價3803703603503403303203103002023/042023/062023/082023/102023/122024/02西澳-中國主要港口運費302520502023/042023/062023/082023/102023/122024/02氧化鋁進口盈虧3002001000-100-200-3002023/022023/052023/082023/112024/02鋁現(xiàn)貨升貼水（上海物貿(mào)）5004003002000-100-2002023-04-282023-07-282023-10-282024-01-28LME鋁升貼水(0-3)6040200-20-40-60-802023-02-012023-07-012023-12-01保稅區(qū)溢價（美元/噸）8060402002023-01-302023-05-302023-09-302024-01-312024/02/222024/02/212024/02/20190001890018800187001860018500184001830018200181001月期2月期3月期4月期5月期6月期7月期LME鋁庫存（噸）LME注銷倉單（噸） 注銷倉單占比（%）8000007000006000005000004000003000002000001000000140%120%100%80%60%40%20%0%2023/01/312023/05/312023/09/302024/01/31總庫存:LME鋁70000060000050000040000030000020000010000002022-06-082022-12-082023-06-082023-12-08總庫存:LME鋅注銷倉單比例總庫存:LME鋅注銷倉單比例3000002500002000001500001000005000002023-03-032023-06-032023-09-032023-12-0350%45%40%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%4003002000-100上海物貿(mào)鋅升貼水LME鋅升貼水(0-3)504030200-10-20-30-40-502023-03-012023-06-012023-09-012023-12-012023-02-172023-06-172023-10-172024-02-17滬鋅成交量（萬手） 滬鋅持倉量（萬手，右軸）70605040302002023-02-162023-06-162023-10-162024-02-16120010008006004002000-200-400長江有色-鋅期三廣東南儲-鋅期三上海物貿(mào)-鋅期三2023-02-172023-06-172023-10-172024-02-172000-100-200-300-400-500-600-700 1#鉛升貼水:最大值:上海金屬 1#鉛升貼水:最小值:上海金屬LME鉛升貼水LME鉛升貼水(0-3)806040200-20-40-602023-03-012023-06-012023-09-012023-12-012023-02-172023-06-172023-10-172024-02-17滬鉛成交量滬鉛持倉量35302520502023-02-162023-06-162023-10-162024-02-16600長江有色-鉛期三廣東南儲-鉛期三 上海物貿(mào)-600長江有色-鉛期三廣東南儲-鉛期三 上海物貿(mào)-鉛期三2000001800001600001400001200001000008000060000400002000002023-03-032023-06-032023-09-032023-12-034002000-200-400-60050%45%40%2000001800001600001400001200001000008000060000400002000002023-03-032023-06-032023-09-032023-12-034002000-200-400-6000%2023-04-182023-07-182023-10-182024-01-1860050040030020006005004003002000平均價:鎳升貼水:上海物貿(mào)14000120001000080006000400020000-2000-4000-60002023-05-042023-08-042023-11-042024-02-04LME鎳升貼水(0-3)0-50-100-150-200-250-300-3502023-05-172023-08-172023-11-172024-02-2024/02/222024/02/192024/02/212024/02/082024/02/201330001320001310001300001290001280001270001260001250001240001230001220001月期2月期3月期4月期5月期6月期7月期保稅區(qū)電解鎳溢價（美元/噸）2022-12-232023-04-232023-08-232023-12-23注銷倉單比例LME鎳:庫存:合計:全球注銷倉單比例800007000060000500004000030000200001000008000070000600005000040000300002000010000002%00%15.015.014.013.012.011.010.09.08.07.06.0鎳鎳/不銹鋼2022-06-222022-12-222023-06-222023-12-22250000230000210000190000170000150000130000110000鎳豆價格硫酸鎳較鎳豆溢價20000100000-10000-20000-30000-40000-50000-60000-700002023-01-302023-05-302023-09-302024-01-3110000090000800001000009000080000700006000050000400003000020000100000490975049093593593593513900138501380013750137001365013600135501350013450134002024-02-222024-02-192024-02-212024-02-082024-02-201月期2月期3月期4月期5月期6月期7月期福建宏旺304-不銹鋼主力150010005000-500-10002022-11-082023-03-082023-07-082023-11-08500000450000400000350000300000250000200000150000100000500000期貨持倉量:不銹鋼期貨成交量:不銹鋼2023-05-092023-08-092023-11-092024-02-09庫存期貨庫存期貨:不銹鋼:廣東:廣東炬申庫存期貨:不銹鋼:江蘇:玖隆物流庫存期貨:不銹鋼:江蘇:五礦無錫庫存期貨:不銹鋼:江蘇:中儲無錫2023/3/32023/5/32023/7/32023/9/32023/11/32024/1/3高碳鉻鐵價格（元/基噸） 不銹鋼企業(yè)利潤（低價不銹鋼估算）10005000-500-10002023-02-232023-05-232023-08-232023-11-23滬錫市場現(xiàn)貨升貼水：平均價220000219500220000219500100002190008000218500600021800021750021700021750021700020002165000216000-20002022-07-212022-07-212022-12-212023-05-212023-10-21 2024-02-222024-02-212024-02-192024-02-202024-02-19LME錫:庫存:合計:全球02022-07-252022-11-252023-03-252023-07-252023 期貨成交量:錫期貨持倉量:錫4500004000003500003000002500002000005000002023-03-142023-06-142023-09-142023-12-14800006000040000200000中信期貨-工業(yè)硅現(xiàn)貨及盤面指標日度監(jiān)測中信期貨-工業(yè)硅現(xiàn)貨及盤面指標日度監(jiān)測變動變動通氧553華東期貨收盤價（元/噸）黃埔港天津港0多晶硅復投料0華東0致密料0黃埔港0菜花料0天津港0有機硅000硅油華東鋁合金ADC120黃埔港天津港硅粉000三氯氫硅價格（元/噸）0圖表48：工業(yè)硅基差-華東553單位：元/噸圖表49：工業(yè)硅基差-基差華東地區(qū)553價格工業(yè)硅主力合約結(jié)算價160001500014000130001200011000100002000150010005000-500-100030-Jun-2331-Aug-2331-Oct-2331-Dec-23工業(yè)硅主力合約結(jié)算價華東421-2000-期貨工業(yè)硅主力合約結(jié)算價華東地區(qū)421價格17000160001500014000130001200011000100005000-500-1000-1500-200030-Jun-2331-Aug-2331-Oct-2331-Dec-23100000800006000040000200001000008000060000400002000002021-08-04-20000-40000-60000-80000日度數(shù)據(jù)單位2024/2/222024/2/21差值變化率鋰輝石精礦(6%,CIF中國)美元/噸91091000.0%鋰云母（Li2O:1.5%-2.0%）元/噸1210121000.0%鋰云母（Li2O:2.0%-2.5%）元/噸2085208500.0%SMM電池級碳酸鋰元/噸961509615000.0%SMM工業(yè)級碳酸鋰元/噸8880088750500.1%SMM電池級氫氧化鋰元/噸850508505000.0%SMM工業(yè)級級氫氧化鋰元/噸772007720000.0%期貨收盤價元/噸976509690075