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TRENDS
IN
THEGLOBAL
VEHICLEFLEET
2023MANAGING
THESUVSHIFTANDTHEEVTRANSITIONTRENDS
IN
THEGLOBAL
VEHICLEFLEET
2023MANAGING
THESUVSHIFTANDTHEEVTRANSITIONACKNOWLEDGMENTSTheprojectwasdevelopedattheEuropeanTransport
andEnergyResearchCentreoftheInstituteofTransportationStudies,UniversityofCalifornia,Davis,andmanagedbyPierpaoloCazzola.ThisreportwasauthoredbyPierpaoloCazzola,LeonardoPaoli,andJacobTeter.
Allauthorscontributedtothedevelopmentofthedataprocessingmethodology,buildingonearlierexperiences,inparticularwithpreviousGFEIbenchmarkingreports.LeonardoPaoliledonupdatingthedataandmakingthempubliclyavailable.SheilaWatson
(FIAFoundation)providedfeedbackonthedraftreportandJohnPap
(FIAFoundation)managedtheeditorialprocess.Theauthorswouldliketothankpeerreviewerswhoprovidedessentialfeedbacktoimprovethequalityofthereport.They
includeElizabethConnelly(IEA[InternationalEnergyAgency]);MatteoCraglia(InternationalTransportForum);FrancoisCuenot(UnitedNationsEconomicCommissionforEurope);EduardoEspitiaEcheverria(WorldBank);Lew
Fulton(UniversityofCalifornia,Davis);MathildeHuismans(IEA);AlexK?rner(UnitedNationalEnvironmentProgramme);AdityaRamji(UniversityofCalifornia,Davis),MaríaSantosAlfageme(InstitutoSuperiorTécnico,
Lisbon);JulesSery(IEA);andJacopoTattini
(JointResearchCenter,
EuropeanCommission).TheprojectwasfundedbytheFIAFoundation.DesignbyDianaFauner
andJohnRigby.PhotographybyAlamy,GettyImages,iStockandShutterstock.DOI:10.7922/G2HM56SVDatasetonZenodo.DOI:10.5281/zenodo.10148349November2023CONTENTSExecutive
Summary14.3
Vehicle
taxation4.3.1
Country-level
taxation
frameworks4545454647481Introduction54.3.2
Key
examples
of
country-wide
di?erentiated
vehicle
registration
taxes4.3.3
Vehicle
taxation
related
to
international
trade4.3.4
Local
vehicle
taxes
and
charges2
Key
developments
in
light-duty
vehicle
markets2.1
New
sales
of
passenger
cars
and
light
commercial
vehicles2.2
Energy
e?ciency
of
new
vehicles66811131315194.4
Changes
in
vehicle
taxes
to
address
vehicle
weight
increases
and
equity-relatedchallenges2.2.1
Technical
determinants
of
the
energy
e?ciency
of
vehicles2.2.2
Tailpipe
carbon
emissions
of
new
light-duty
vehicles2.3
Vehicle
sales
by
powertrain2.4
Vehicle
sales
by
segment2.5
Vehicle
size
and
weight4.4.1
Changes
in
country-level
taxation
frameworks4.4.2
Changes
in
vehicle
taxation
related
with
international
trade4.4.3
Changes
in
local
vehicle
taxes
and
charges484950505152544.5
Fuel
taxation
and
carbon
prices4.5.1
Road
user
charges
to
complement
or
progressively
replace
fuel
taxation4.6
Alternative
energy
infrastructure
(EV
chargers)4.7
Sustainable
?nance
and
development
aid
funding3
Analysis
of
the
vehicle
market
developments
and
implications
for
policy
action2121212123232526262730313.1
Impacts
of
the
shift
towards
SUVs3.1.1Energy
and
CO
emissionsAnnex:
Methodological
note55555555555757575757595923.1.2
Vehicle
weight3.1.3
Road
safety3.1.4
EquityA.1
Description
of
data
sourcesA.1.1Fuel
economy
in
major
car
markets
(2005-2017)
data,
GFEI_0517A.1.2
GFEI
2021
data,
IEA_193.2
The
role
of
EVsin
the
shift
towards
SUVs3.3
Impacts
of
the
EV
transitionA.1.3
Automotive
sales
data
from
MarklinesA.1.4
CO
emissions
from
cars
and
vans,
EEA,
EEA23.3.1Energy
and
CO
emissionsA.2
Description
of
data
processing
steps23.3.2
Vehicle
weightA.2.1
Preparing
Marklines
sales
data3.3.3
Road
safety3.3.4
EquityA.2.2
Preparing
IEA
speci?c
energy
consumption
dataA.2.3
Preparing
EEA
dataA.2.4
Matching
of
powertrain
categories
with
Marklines
categoriesA.2.5
Joining
speci?c
energy
consumption,
weight,
and
footprint
data
to
salesdata3.4
Are
SUVs
and
EVsincreasing
the
risk
of
a
global
divide?3.5
Need
for
policy
action
to
address
existing
challenges31324
Policy
options3537373940404040A.2.6
Improvements
in
ICE
vehicle
e?ciency
technologiesA.2.7
Mismatch
between
vehicle
factory
shipments
and
registrations
in
ChinaA.3
Applying
new
W
LTC
correctionsA.3.1
Re-benchmarking
NEDC
to
W
LTC
conversion
factorsA.4
Regional
aggregations595960614.1
Regulatory
policy
frameworks
on
energy,
environment
and
safety4.1.1Environmental
regulations4.1.2
Road
safety
regulations4.1.3
Use
of
regulations
in
vehicle
trade4.1.4
Urban
access
restrictions614.1.5
Targeted
regulatory
requirements
for
speci?c
usage
pro?les4.2
Regulatory
changes
to
address
vehicle
weight
increases
and
equity-relatedchallengesAbbreviations
and
acronymsUnits
of
measure66664.2.1
Regulations
on
vehicle
footprint4.2.2
Regulations
on
battery
capacity4.2.3
Other
regulatory
requirements
applying
speci?cally
to
batteries4.2.4
Changes
in
existing
environmental
regulations4.2.5
Changes
in
existing
road
safety
regulations4.2.6
Changes
in
targeted
regulatory
requirements
for
speci?c
usage
pro?les414141424444ReferencesEndnotes6777TRENDS
IN
THE
GLOBAL
VEHICLE
FLEET
2023
-
MANAGING
THE
SUV
SHIFT
AND
THE
EV
TRANSITIONEXECUTIVESUMMARY2022.
The
yearly
rate
ofenergy
e?ciencyimprovementbetween
2019
and2022
was
more
pronounced
(closeto
6%)inmarkets
where
EVsalesincreased
themost,namelyChina
andEurope.
InNorth
America,loweruptake
ofEVs
anda
continued
trend
insalesoflarger
andheavier
vehicleshas
resulted
in
a
yearly
improvement
rateof1.6%.
Incountries
where
EVs
are
notwidelydeployed,annualimprovement
rates
are
alsocloseto
1.5%.SportUtility
Vehicles
(SUVs),
underpinningincreases
inlarger,
heavier,
and
more
powerful
vehicles,has
continuedinmajorautomotive
markets
andacross
nearlyallcountries
(Figure
ES3).In2022,
salesofSUVs
overtooksalesofconventional
cars
ata
globallevel,
reaching51%
ofthetotal.
Globally,
theaverage
vehicle
weight
ofLDVs
hasalsoreached
anall-timemaximum,at1530kg.Average
footprint
hasstagnatedafter
2019/2020
atabout4.2
m2.
Increases
took
place
inlow-
andmedium-income
countries,
typicallystarting
from
a
lower
baseline.Limited
declinesoccurred
mainlyinChina
andEurope.This
is
the
latestupdateof
a
benchmarkingreportlookingatthespeci?cfuelconsumption
oflight-duty
vehicles(LDVs).
Whilereporting
datastarting
in2005,itfocusesonchanges
thatoccurred
between
2019
and2022.decreasedinallmajorcarmarketsfrom2019to2022,improvingatanaverageyearlyrateof3.2%andreaching6.9
Lge/100kmin2022(0.64kWh/km).Thisisadoublingoftheaverageimprovementrateobservedbetween2005and2019(1.6%)(FigureThe
e?ciencyofnew
vehicles
isalsolinked
withthesize,weight,
andpower
ofnew
cars.
A
long-term
shift
towardsKey
developmentsincludea15%contractionofglobalLDV
salesin2020asaconsequenceofthepandemic,andalimitedrecoveryinsalesthrough2022.Thesales-weightedspeci?cenergyconsumptionofLDVsES1).DirectCO
emissionshavedeclinedevenfaster,2atarateof2.1%
peryearbetween2005and2022,aselectri?cationa?ectscarbonemissionsmorethanenergyconsumption.FIGURE
ES2:
GlobalLDVsalessharesby
powertrain100%FIGURE
ES1:
Trends
inthespeci?cenergyconsumptionofnewlightdutyvehiclesinmajormarkets75%50%25%0%12111091.1290270250230210190170150130110/0.90.70.60.4OCkeggL2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022Battery
Electric
Plug-in
Hybrid
Hybrid
Mild
Hybrid
ICE
Petrol
ICE
Diesel
ICE
Other87Note:
ICEstandsforinternalcombustionengine.65Sources:
thisassessment(detailsintheAnnex)basedonIEA,2019a;IEA,2021a;EEA,2023a;EEA,2023b
andMarklinesdata.4ChinaNorth
AmericaEuropeJapanOther
CountriesWorldFIGURE
ES3:
GlobalLDVsalesby
segmentNotes:
Lgestandsforlitresofgasolineequivalent,anditisusedtostandardisefuelconsumptionaccordingtotheirvolumetricenergycontent,likekWh/km.Thereare9.3
kWhperLge.Historicalspeci?cenergyconsumptionvalueshavebeenbenchmarkedaccordingtonew100%understandingoftheratiobetweenNEDCandWLTP
testcycleenergyintensityandCO
emissionsperformance.Thisrevisionhasimprovedthe2real-worldrepresentativenessofthereportedspeci?cenergyconsumption.75%50%25%0%Sources:
thisassessment(detailsintheAnnex)basedonIEA,2019a;IEA,2021a;
EEA,2023a;EEA,2023bandMarklinesdata.The
globalaverage
annualrate
ofenergy
intensityreductions
intheperiodfrom
2020
to
2022was
4.2%.
Ifthisrate
ofimprovement
could
besustainedthrough
2030,
itwould
bringLDVs
verycloseto
meetingtheGFEItarget
ofdoublingtheenergy
efficiencyofnew
LDV
salesby
2030
from
a2005baseline.The
rapid
acceleration
inenergy
e?ciencyseeninrecentyears
ismainlydueto
theuptake
ofelectriclight-dutyvehicles
(EVs,
whichincludebothbattery
electricvehicles[BEVs]
andplug-inhybrids
[PHEVs])
(Figure
ES2).Electricpowertrains
consume
three
to
sixtimeslessenergy
thaninternal
combustion
enginevehicles
to
covera
unitofdistance
andtheirsalesshare
reached
15%in2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022Large
SUVLarge
CarSmall
SUVLCVSmall
CarMedium
CarShare
SUVUnclassi?edSources:
thisassessment(detailsintheAnnex)basedonIEA,2019a;IEA,2021a;EEA,2023a;EEA,2023bandMarklinesdata.1TRENDS
IN
THE
GLOBAL
VEHICLE
FLEET
2023
-
MANAGING
THE
SUV
SHIFT
AND
THE
EV
TRANSITION2POLICYOPTIONSManaging
thesedevelopmentsrequires
a
broad
rangeofpolicyactions.The
two
maintrends
underpinningdevelopments
intheglobalcarmarket
–
a
market
shifttowards
SUVsandthetransition
toward
EVs
–
have
far-reachingimplicationsfor
theautomotive
industry,
aswell
asontheenvironment
andsociety.Shiftsto
larger
andheavier
vehicles
ledto
increased?The
adoptionandcontinued
development
offundamentalpre-requisites:
technical
standards,increased
low-carbon
electricity
availability,
andremoval
offossil
fuelsubsidies.oilconsumption,
direct
CO
emissions
andvehicle2weight,
size
andpower.
Without
theshifttowardsSUVs,
energy
useperkmfor
combustion
enginevehicles
could
have
fallen
atanaverage
annualratethatis30%higherthanitdidfrom
2010
to
2022.Intheabsence
oftheSUVshift,vehicle
weightincreases
for
thesesamevehicles
could
alsohavebeenmore
thanhalved.?A
coherent
policyframework
isalsoneededbeyond
tailpipeemissions,
takinga
holisticapproach
to
address
impactsofLDV
productionandoperations
from
a
lifecycle
perspective.ImpactsoftheSUVshift
onenergy
useanddirectNovel
regulatory
mechanismscanaddress
issuesrelated
to
increased
vehicle
size
andweight.emissions
ofCO
perkmare
beingo?set
by
increased2electri?cation,thanks
to
markedly
lower
speci?cenergyconsumption
versus
combustion
vehicles.?The
introduction
ofa
caponvehicle
footprint,
inabsolute
terms
andasa
sales-weighted
average,paired
withnetdeclinesgoing
forward,
to
limitandthenreverse
theSUVshift.Electricvehicles
however
tend
to
weigh
more
thancombustion
vehicles,
andtheirrisehasaddedto
theweight
increases
coming
from
theshiftfrom
smallandmediumcars
to
SUVs.?Corporate-average
regulatory
requirements,similarto
thoseinplace
for
fueleconomy
orDespite
increases
indisposableincome
ofhouseholdsworldwide,
theSUVshiftwasCO
emissions,
having
battery
capacity
(kWh/2vehicle)
astheregulated
parameter.
Thesecould
beespeciallye?ective
to
complementthefootprint
regulations
to
reverse
theSUVshift,addressing
criticalmineral
issues
fromthedemandsideandequity
issues
speci?callyrelated
withEVs
through
product
diversi?cation,whileleaving
room
for
innovation
inbatterychemistriesandproviding
?exibility
ininstrumentalfor
anincrease
inoriginalequipmentmanufacturers
(OEM)
pro?tability
thatremainedinplace
even
after
thecontraction
observed
intheglobalLDV
market.
This,
however,
alsoresulted
inrelevant
a?ordability
andequity
challenges
withinandacross
countries.
Higherinvestment
costsneededfor
EVs
exacerbated
thesechallenges,
evenifsavings
from
lower
energy
andmaintenance
costsfor
EVs
helpto
mitigate
thise?ect
ona
total
cost
ofownership
basis.Adapting
existing
policyandregulatory
instrumentscanalsohelpaddress
theseissues.??Sustainable?nanceframeworks,importanttohelpachieveabetteralignmentbetweenthedecisionstakenbyinvestors,corporationsandotherentities,canbene?tfromupdatesintheirtaxonomiesregardingweight-relatedattributesofvehicles.???Vehicle
taxation
reforms
–
includingtheintegration
ofweight
andprices
asmodulatingparameters
for
vehicles
taxes
andcharges,atthenationalandatthelocallevels
–
canhelpsteer
vehicle
markets
away
from
SUVsandencourage
EVadoptionwithoutreducinggovernment
budgets.compliance
strategies
for
automakers.?The
useofvehicle
footprint,
rather
thanweight,isalsosuggested
asthebestchoice
asamodulatingparameter
inexisting
regulationsonspeci?cenergy
consumption
ordirect
CO2emissions,
alongsidetightenedrequirementsfor
larger
vehicles
(includingbothICEVs
andEVs).
This
isbecauseregulating
basedonfootprint
canincentivize
lightweighting
asanenergy
consumption
reduction
strategy,
whereasweight-based
regulations
fail
to
dothis.Financial
instrumentsdesignedto
facilitateaccess
to
EVs
for
capital-constrained
householdsandsmallbusinesses,
aswell
asinitiativesfavouring
access
to
capitalatlower
cost,
arecrucialto
helpfavouring
anequitabletransition,domesticallyandinternationally.Legacy
OEMshave
beenslow
to
enter
theEVmarket,especiallyinsmallersegments,despite
theriskofexposure
to
long-term
losses
ofmarket
shares
toChinesecompetitors.
Reasons
includethenear-termfocus
onhigherpro?tability,
thecost
ofthebatteriesfor
BEVs
andcomplex
powertrains
for
PHEVs,challenges
inthedevelopment
ofnew
battery
supplychainsandlarge
capitaloutlays
for
investment
innewindustrialfacilities.Fossilfueltaxesandcarbonpricingmechanismso?erimportantopportunitiestoprovideeconomicincentivesforEVs.
Incentivesneedtobetargetedonmorevulnerablehouseholdsandbusinesses,facilitatingamoreequitableandinclusivetransition.They
canbe?nancedfromrevenuesfromfossilfueltaxesandcarbonpricing.Whileitisalsotechnicallyfeasible
to
make
progressby
reforming
trade
rulesandtari?s
appliedto
criticalminerals,
EVbattery,
andvehicles,
progress
onthisdependsuponthee?ectiveness
ofthedialogueandnegotiations
takingplace
attheintergovernmentallevel.
Possible
improvements
to
trade-related
policiesonvehicles
includedi?erentiated
tari?s
basedonpowertrain,
battery
size,
energy
e?ciency,
GHGemissions,vehicle
weightand
footprint.
They
are
feasibleaslongasthedi?erentiation
alignswithrulesoforigin,environment-
andnationalsecurity-related
exceptionsforeseen
by
theWorld
Trade
Organization
(WTO).Thisreportproposesalsototargetmorestringentenvironmentalandsafetyregulationsonhighlyutilizedvehiclessuchascompanycars,taxis,government?eets,andride-andcarsharingservices.MeasuresrequiringhigherEVmarketsharesandincentivizingelectricvkmintheseusecasescanenhancee?ciencyintheuseofmineralsforEVbatteriesandmayalsogeneratepositivespilloversintermsofequity.Equity-related
challenges
andgreater
exposureoflow-income
householdsandbusinesses
to
thecombined
market
transformation
towards
EVs
andSUVs
pointtowards
thepossibility
ofa
growingglobaldivide,notonlywithindi?erent
income
groupswithincountries,
butalsobetween
majordevelopedeconomies
andothercountries.Regulatory
and?scalmeasures
supportinguniversal
access
to
EVcharging
infrastructureare
neededto
enableconsumers
to
gain
morecon?dence
to
undertake
a
larger
share
oftheirtripseven
witha
shorterrange,
thereby
alsoaddressing
weight-related
challenges
for
EVs.3TRENDS
IN
THE
GLOBAL
VEHICLE
FLEET
2023
-
MANAGING
THE
SUV
SHIFT
AND
THE
EV
TRANSITION41
INTRODUCTION2
KEYDEVELOPMENTSINLIGHTDUTY
VEHICLEMARKETSThisreportisthelatestupdateandsixthinstalmentoftheGlobalFuel
EconomyInitiative’sbiannualbenchmarkingreportonlight-dutyvehiclesales,extendingtheanalysisfrom2019through2022.Previousreportstrackedthetechnical,market,andChina,
Europe,
Korea,
JapanandNorth
America,1resulting
insubstantialenergy
intensity
andGHGemission
reductions.Chapter3analyseskey
determinantsoftheobservedmarketdevelopments,withaspeci?cfocusontheshifttowardsSUVs
andtheincreaseinEVshares.Itexaminesthebroaderimpactsofthesedynamics,focusingonvehiclesize,weight,andpriceincreases,andconsidersaspectsrelatedwithenergy,emissionspolicydriversoffueleconomyandCO
emissions2performanceofnewlight-dutyvehicles(LDVs)
atacountry,regional,andgloballevel(CuenotandFulton,2011,CuenotandK?rner,
2013,IEA,2019a,andIEA,2021a).Thesereports,togetherwithotherGFEIanalyses(Cuenot,2017),havedocumentedtherisingmarketsharesofSportUtilityVehicles
(SUVs),andmoregenerally,oflargerandheaviervehicles,andanalysedtheimpactofthesetrendsonenergy2.1
NEWSALESOFWorldwide,
thesalesoflight-duty
vehicles
(LDVs)ofCO
andlocalairpollutants,roadsafety,
demandfor–
includingpassenger
cars
andlightcommercialvehicles2
–
steadily
increased
through
2017,
andthen2mineralsresources,andequity.PASSENGERCARS
ANDslowed
down
through
2019
(Figure
1).Long
term-Thefollowinganalysis,inChapter4,reviewspoliciesalreadydevelopedbygovernmentstoaddresstheimpactsofrecentmarketdevelopments,identi?esbestpractices,andrecommendschangesandnewregulatoryinstrumentsthatarebestsuitedtoaddressthechallengesdiscussedinChapter3,placingagreateremphasisonsolutionsthathelpbridgetheriskofaglobaldivide.trends
were
disrupted
by
theCovid-19
pandemicinLIGHTCOMMERCIALVEHICLESe?ciencyandCO
emissionsinmajorLDV
markets.2020,
whichresulted
ina
rapid
drop
ofsalesacross2allregions:
globally,
15%fewer
LDVs
were
soldin2020
thanin2019.
Following
2020,
salesrebounded,Thisreporttracksthiscontinuingtrend,highlightingkey
implications,includingreducedenergyandresourcee?ciency,increasedvehicleproductioncostsandreduceda?ordabilityforvehicleowners–exacerbatinginequalitieswithinandamongcountries–aswellasheightenedinjuryandmortalityriskstopedestrians,cyclists,andcardriversalike.Examiningvehiclesalestrendsinlow-andmedium-incomecountries,thisworkalsoextendsthemesdevelopedintheUCDavisreportcommissionedbytheFIAFoundationfortheZEVTransition
Council,“FacilitatingaTransition
toZero-EmissionVehicles
intheGlobalSouth”(CazzolaandSantosAlfageme,2023).butare
stillaround
10%lower
thanthey
were
beforethepandemic.Themethodologicalapproachofthisupdatedi?ersfrompreviousGFEIbenchmarkingreports.Ratherthanrelyingonadatabasewithdetailedmodel-levelandinsomecasestrim-leveldataandincludinganextensivelistofvehicletechnicalparameters(e.g.,weight,footprint,enginecapacity,numberofdoors,presenceofe?ciencytechnologiessuchascontinuouslyvariabletransmissions,turbochargers,etc.),thisdataupdatereliesonlowerresolutiondata(stillatthemodellevel)fromMarklines.TheMethodologicalAnnexoutlinesthemethodsusedtoensureascloseaspossibleconsistencywithpreviousreports,andtoverifytheaccuracyandvalidityofthisassessment.FIGURE
1:
GlobalLDVsalesby
region2005-202210090807060504030Chapter
2
illustrates
thatthetendency
towardslarger
market
shares
for
vehicles
inlarger
heaviervehicle
segmentsispersistent
andwidespread.The
sameanalysis
alsoshows
a
rapid
increase
invehicle
electrification,withstrong
EVadoptionin201002005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022ChinaNorth
AmericaIndiaEuropeJapan
and
KoreaBrazil,
Mexico,
MalaysiaIndonesia,
Thailand,
Vietnam,
South
AfricaOther
CountriesMiddle
EastNote:
LDVsalesincludedinthisanalysisandinthisgrapharethoseforthecountrieslistedinannexTable
A6.EuropeincludesallmembercountriesoftheEuropeanEconomicArea(EEA)plusSwitzerlandandtheUnitedKingdom.NorthAmericaincludestheUnitedStatesandCanadabutexcludesMexico,includedinthesamegroupasBrazilandMalaysia,astheyhavesimilarcharacteristicswithrespecttoGDPpercapita,whilestillhavingacomparablepopulationdensity,thepresenceofanautomotivemanufacturingcapacityandnotbeinganetimporterofoilandpetroleumproducts.Total
salesforthissetofcountriesareequivalenttoroughly85%ofthetotalvehiclesalesaccountedby
OICA–includingcommercialvehicles(OICA,2023),meaningthattheyrepresentthevastmajorityoflightdutyvehiclesalesglobally.Sources:
thisassessment(detailsintheAnnex)basedonIEA,2019a;IEA,2021a;EEA,2023a;EEA,2023bandMarklinesdata.5TRENDS
IN
THE
GLOBAL
VEHICLE
FLEET
2023
-
MANAGING
THE
SUV
SHIFT
AND
THE
EV
TRANSITION62.2
ENERGYThe
rebound
insaleshasbeenslowed
down
byastretched
supplychain–
especiallydueto
a
shortageofmicrochips
–
thathasstruggledto
keep
upwithswingsindemand(JP
Morgan,
2023;
Brinley,
2023,
Straughan,2023;
Burkacky
etal.,2021;
Burkacky
etal.,2022).Shifts
inthemarket
structure,
asdiscussed
below,accompanied
by
changes
invehicle
prices
aslargervehicles
are
above
thoseofsmallerones,discussedinChapter
3,are
alsoin?uencingconsumer
choicesregarding
theacquisitionofa
new
vehicle,
includingthrough
postponement
of
purchases(GfK,
2023;Shmuel,2022;
Romei,
2022)
oranincreased
consideration
ofsecond-hand
options,where
they
are
available
(RochBaranowski
etal.,2023;
Manheim,2023).combinedshareofthesematuremarketsoutoftheglobalmarkethasdeclinedfromover70%
in2005tounder50%in2022.andPHEVs,
re?ecting
thefact
thatelectricpowertrainsconsume
three
to
sixtimesless
energy
to
covera
unitofdistance
incomparison
withpowertrains
reliant
oninternal
combustion
engines(ICEs)
andtheirsalessharereached
15%in2022.EFFICIENCY
OFNEWVEHICLESLDV
salesinNorthAmericadeclined14%in2020fromtheir2019level,andhavedroppedafurther5%sincethen,to13.9millionvehiclesin2022.Globalsupplychainconstraintsandrapidin?ation,withthepricesofnewcarsandtrucksrisingevenhigherthanotherconsumergoods(BureauofLaborStatistics,2023),justifythisreduction.5The
yearly
rate
ofenergy
e?ciencyimprovementbetween
2019
and2022
was
more
pronounced
inmarkets
where
EVsalesincreased
themost,namelyChina
(5.9%)
andEurope
(5.8%).InNorth
America,lower
uptake
ofEVs
anda
continued
trend
insalesoflarger
andheavier
vehicles
hasresulted
ina
yearlyimprovement
rate
of1.6%.
Incountries
where
EVs
arenotwidelydeployed,
annualimprovement
rates
arecloseto
1.5%.The
speci?cenergy
consumption
ofnew
vehicles
hasdecreased
since
thebeginningofthisbenchmarkingexercise.
The
globalsales-weighted
average
fuelInJapan,salesofLDVs
declinedby
more
than10%since
thepandemicandremained
roughly
constantthereafter.consumption
for
LDVs
soldin2022
was
6.9
Lge/100km(0.64
kWh/km)6,
nearly30%less
energy
thanthevaluein2005.In2020,
GFEIpartnersrea?rmed
theirtarget
todoubletheenergy
e?ciencyofnew
LDV
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