2024年基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施行業(yè)的新興趨勢(shì)（英）

Emergingtrendsin

infrastructure

2024edition

KPMGInternational

/infratrends

Foreword

Enablingtransitions

Allatonetime,wewanttochangeourenergymix,ourclimate,

oureconomies,ourglobaltradepatterns,ourcities,our

technologyandoursocialequity.Andweplantodoitallagainst

abackdropofanon-stationaryenvironment,divisivegeopolitical

rhetoricanddeepeconomicuncertainty.Itisamammothtask.

Humanity’ssuccessorfailurewilllargelyrestontheshoulders

ofourinfrastructure.Infrastructurewillbecentraltotheenergy

transitionandachievingourclimateadaptationgoals.Itcatalyzes

economicgrowthandfacilitatestrade.Itunderpinsurban

renewal,laysthefoundationsfordigitaltransformationand—

whendonewell—canhelpembedsocialequity.

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Toachievethisweneedtochange(andimprove)thewayweplan,fund,developandoperateourinfrastructure.Itwillrequire

collaboration,newfundingmechanisms,innovativeregulatoryregimes,newconstructiontechniques,broaderskillsetsand—

morethananything—ahighdegreeofflexibilityandcreativity.Businessasusualisnotanoption.Countries,territories,citiesandcorporateshavetoreinventthemselvesaswellasup-skillandinnovatetomeettheemergingchangesandpotentialopportunities.Enablingtheworld’stransitions,therefore,muststartwithatransitionintheinfrastructuresector.

InthiseditionofEmergingTrendsinInfrastructure,KPMGinfrastructureprofessionalssharetheirviewofthetentrendsthat—inouropinion—havethepotentialtoshapetheworldofinfrastructurein2024.Wheretherewasachoicetobeoptimisticorpessimistic,wechosetheformer;webelievehumanitycanpulltogethertosolvetheurgentchallengestheworldfaces.

Asalways,wehopethatthiseditionofEmergingTrendsinInfrastructureinspiresreaderstothinkdifferentlyaboutthechallenges

facinghumanityandtheopportunitiesandsolutionsthatcouldbecreatedbytheinfrastructuresectortoachieveourcollectivegoals.

AtKPMGmemberfirms,ourmultidisciplinaryteamsofinfrastructureprofessionalsarededicatedtohelpingpublicandprivatesectororganizationsdelivertheoutcomestheyareseeking,asefficientlyandeffectivelyaspossible.KPMGprofessionalsthriveonhelpingsolvetheworld’sbiggestchallenges.Andweareeagertoshareourinsightsandknowledgeaswemovetowardsatransformed

infrastructuresector.

Tolearnmoreaboutthetrendsandtopicsraisedinthisreport,weencourageyoutocontactyourlocalKPMGmemberfirm.

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Abouttheleadauthors

RichardThrelfall

GlobalHeadofInfrastructure,

GovernmentandHealthcare

KPMGInternational

richard.threlfall@kpmg.co.uk

RichardThrelfall

Richardhasalmost30years’

experienceinpolicy,governance,

strategyandfinancing,advising

bothpublicandprivatesectorclientsintheUKandoverseas.Hehasa

long-standingreputationforleading

clientsthroughcomplexandpoliticallyhigh-profiletransactionsandprovidingstrategic,financialandgovernance

advice.RichardisChairofthe

InternationalCoalitionforSustainableInfrastructure,andisaFellowoftheInstitutionofCivilEngineers.

4|Emergingtrendsininfrastructure

MicheleConnolly

HeadofInfrastructure,EMAregionHeadofCorporateFinance

Partner,KPMGinIreland

michele.connolly@kpmg.ie

MicheleConolly

@michelec_kpmg

MicheleisKPMG’sHeadofCorporateFinanceinIrelandandEMAHeadof

Infrastructure,providingstrategic

andfinancialadvicetoclientsina

rangeofindustries.Shespecializes

ininfrastructuredeliveryacrossan

assetlifecyclefromstrategy,policy

throughprocurementandfinancing

tolongtermprojectdelivery.Shealsosupportsclientsinloansales,bankingrescheduling/restructuringnegotiationsforbothpropertyandtrading

businesses.Michelehassignificant

experienceintheareaofproject

finance,andleadstheKPMGinIrelandteamonawiderangeofnotablePublicPrivatePartnershiptransactions.

SharadSomani

HeadofInfrastructure,AsiaPacific,

HeadofESG

Partner,KPMGinSingapore

sharadsomani@.sg

SharadSomani

@sharadsomani

SharadleadstheInfrastructureAdvisorypracticeinSingapore,coveringproject

financing,economics®ulatoryand

majorprojectsadvisory.Hehasover20yearsofexperienceacrossinfrastructuresectors:power,includingrenewable

energy,water,wastetoenergy,and

LNG;transport;broadband;andurban/

industrialinfrastructure.Hehasextensiveexperienceadvisingbothgovernment

andprivatesectorclientsacrossthe

projectlifecycle,fromconceptualizationtofinancing,implementationand

performanceimprovement.More

recently,Sharadhasworkedonkey

projectsinSouthEastAsiaandthe

MiddleEastregionscoveringutilityscalerenewableenergyprojects,smartcity

infrastructuredeploymentsanduseof

technologyineffectiveprojectdelivery.

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Contents

Clickonthetopicsbelowtolearnmoreabouteachtrend.

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Theriseof

philanthropic

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Contractingfortechnology

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Reformingtheregulatoryremit

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Theracetogreengrowth

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Abroaderfocusfor

theJustTransition

capital

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Aturningeopolitics

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Towardsthe

‘infrastructure

mesh’

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Bendingnotbreaking

Trend10

Thenextfrontier

Trend6

Drivingtheenergy

transition

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AbroaderfocusfortheJustTransition

Changecreatesopportunity.And,astheworldtransitionstowardsacleanenergyfuture,societyfacesahistoricopportunitytoensurethatthetransitionisjust,fairandequitable.Itisanopportunitywecannotaffordtosquander.Theworldwouldbeconsiderablyworse-offifwedo.

Todate,muchoftheconversationaroundthe‘justtransition’has

beenfocusedonjobs.Yetsolvingthejobspartoftheequationmaybetheeasytask.Otherindustrieshavegonethroughsimilardisruptioninthepast;governmentshaveagoodideaofwhatittakestore-skillpeopleanddiversifyeconomies.Besides,itnowseemsclearthatthetransitionawayfromfossilfuelusagewilltakesometime.1

Thebiggerchallengeislikelytobeinensuringthatinvestment,

developmentandsustainabilityoutcomesarespreadequitably

betweendevelopedandemergingmarkets.Therealityisthat

massiveinvestmentwillneedtobeplacedintoscalingup

renewables(asKPMGinternational’srecentreport,

Turningthe

tideinscalingrenewables

finds,thegapbetweentheinvestment

neededandcapitaldeployediswide),2improvingclimateadaptationinhigh-riskgeographies,creatingsupportiveregulatoryregimes,

developingneweconomyskillsandcapabilities,andcapacity

building,forexample.Andthedevelopedworldiscurrentlycapturingthelion’sshareofthoseinflows.

Theemergingmarketsarealsoseeingmassiveincreasesinclean

energyinvestmentandcapacity.Itislikelythatfutureinvestmentsintotraditionalenergysourceswilllikelybechanneledtothe

emergingmarketswhereregulationsarelessclearandwheresomecountriesstillhavenotdefinedtheirdecarbonizationpathwaysorsetnetzerotargets.

Notonlycouldthiscreateanimbalanceinhowthebenefitsof

theenergytransitionarespreadaroundtheworld,italsocreates

significantriskforDevelopmentFinanceInstitutions(DFIs)and

privateinvestorsseekingtofundprojectsinhardtoabatesectorsinthesecountries(steelandcementinparticular).Asaresult,attemptstodevelopcleaner,moresustainableinfrastructureinthesemarketsarebeingmarginalized.

InordertomeettheUNSDGs,theworldshouldbeensuring

economicdevelopmentandtransitiontolowcarbonhappenstogetherratherthanatthecostofeachother.Thiswouldrequiregreater

focusoncapabilitydevelopment,investmentinR&D,promoting

alternateindustriesandcreatingnewpillarsofeconomicgrowth—decarbonization,energyefficiency,smartinfrastructure.ThelaunchoftheJustEnergyTransitionPartnership(JETP)inIndonesia,isa

landmark,longtermpartnershipdesignedtocreateanambitious

andjustpowersectortransitioninIndonesia.TheJETPwillfocusnotonlyondeliveringstrongemissionsreductions,butalsoondriving

sustainabledevelopmentandeconomicgrowth,whileprotectingthelivelihoodsofcommunitiesandworkersinaffectedsectors.3

Thisyearwillbecriticaltobridgethedividebetweenthedeveloped

marketsandemergingnationsandbuildtrustbyensuringpilot

projectsaresuccessfullyimplementedandaretheshowcasefor

futureprojects.The‘loss&damagefund’formalizedatCOP28is

agoodstart,4butwhattheworldshouldbeensuringismulti-party

commitmenttoa‘recover&restore’approachthatdrivesconstructiveinterventionswithaviewtoacceleratesustainablesocialchange.

Theinfrastructuresectorislikelytoplayakeyrole.Infrastructure

investorswillhaveanopportunitytoshapethecapitalflows.Ownersandoperatorscaninfluencethevalueexpectations.Developers

canhelpensuresupplychainsandapproachesarediversifiedandsustainable.Regulatorswillmakesureconsumerrightsandexpectationsarebeingmet.

Overthecomingyear,somegovernmentsandinternational

organizationsareexpectedtostartbroadeningtheirdefinition

of‘justtransition’and,withit,encouragegreatercollaboration

betweennations,sectorsandcitizens.Multilateralorganizationsandcollaborativealliances—likeKPMG’smembershipwiththeWWFandUNDPaspartoftheAllianceforaJustEnergyTransition5—willbecriticaltodrivingthischangeandachievingabalancedoutcome.Andinfrastructureinvestors,developersandoperatorsareexpectedtostarttopaymuchmoreattentiontotheemergingmarketswhich,inturn,shouldhelpputjusttransitionintopractice.

1KPMGinSingapore,

Navigatingthepost-COP28landscapeforglobaldecarbonisation

,2023

2KPMGinternational,

Turningthetideinscalingrenewables

,2023

3USEmbassy&ConsulatesinIndonesia,UnitedStatessupportsthelaunchoftheJustEnergyTransitionPartnership(JETP)inIndonesia,2023

4WWF,TheagreementontheLossandDamageFundmarksapositivestart,nowcountriesmustdeliverthefinancetothevulnerablecommunitiesneeds,20235UNDP,TheAllianceforaJustEnergyTransformation,2023

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Aturningeopolitics

Theworldisinastateofgeopoliticalandsocialupheaval.Facingarangeofperniciouschallenges—economic,climate,trade,

inequalityandtechnological,tonameafew—thatareimpactingpeople’sday-to-daylivesandinfluencingglobalpoliticalagendas.

Astheclimateemergencybecomesmoreacute,6schismsbetweenvariousregionsoftheworlddeepen,andeconomicuncertaintiesanddebtchallengesstarttobite,theremaybefurtherfracturingofglobalconsensusandanincreaseinconflictascountriesandterritoriesvieoverscarceresources,capitalandpower.

Withcollaboration,partnershipandtrustinshortsupplyandgeo-politicalandeconomicheadwindsdominatingtheheadlines,theactualandperceivedriskstobusinesseshavegrownmulti-fold.

Morethan40percentoftheworld’spopulationissettoelectnewgovernmentsthisyear(includingIndia,Indonesia,SouthAfricaandtheUS),soexpecttherhetoricanduncertaintytorise.

However,thereisoptimismthattherealimpactsoftheclimateemergencyandtheneedforajusttransitioncouldinspire

somecountries,institutionsandleaderstoputtheglobalgoodaheadoftheirnationalinterestsandcometogethertoforge

newalliancesfocusedonbuildingconsensusandformingthefoundationsforcollaboration.

Thiswouldbegoodnews.KPMGbelievesthatallstakeholders

shouldcometogetheranddriveconsensusoncriticaldevelopmental

Snapshotofelectionsacrosstheglobein2024

andclimateagendas.Awin-winpartnershipneedstoevolvefocusedonleveragingtechnology,innovativeandalternatecapitalaswellasbroaderpolicyalignmenttodrivegrowth.

Shouldtheworldveertowardslesspartnershipandcollaboration,theimpactontheinfrastructuresectorwillbesignificant.Infrastructureinvestorsandownersmaystruggletosquareawaytheuncertainty

andregulatorycomplexity,therebyslowingdealmakingandreducinginvestmentrightatatimewhentheworldneedsitmost.Thecostofprojectscouldincreaseasconstructioncompaniesanddeveloperspricenewrisksintotheirbids.Projectsinthedevelopingmarkets

thatneeditthemostmaygetstalledwaitingforpolicycertainty,governmentdirectionandflowofinternationalcapital.

Thisyear,someinfrastructureplayersandinvestorsareexpectedtofocusonfindingwaystomeasure,manageandmitigatethe

riskofuncertaintyasahedgeagainstashiftawayfromglobal

collaboration.Additionally,itishopedthattoseeleadersand

policymakersstarttofocusoncollaborationovercompetition,

globalgoodovernationalprotectionism,andactionoverrhetoric.

KPMGiscautiouslyoptimisticaboutthetriumphofeconomicsandgoodpoliciesoverprotectionismanddivisiveshort-termstrategies.Inmorewaysthanone,whattheworlddoesin2024maydefine

thetrajectoryfortherestofthedecadeandsetthestageforour

abilitytomeet(orfallwoefullyshortof)ournetzeroandSDGgoals.

Bangladesh,Bhutan,

Taiwan,Finland

February

July

ElSalvador,Azerbaijan,

Pakistan,Indonesia,

Senegal,Belarus

Panama,Lithuania,DominicanRepublic

Iceland,Mexico,Belgium

Iran,Ireland,

Portugal,Russia

Mozambique,Uruguay,UK

UnitedStates,Mauritius

November

December

January

October

Rwanda

March

Ghana

April

South

May

Korea

June

6WWF,TheClimateCrisis,2023

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Theriseofphilanthropiccapital

Evenbeforethepandemic,governmentsaroundtheworldwerestrugglingtofundalltheinfrastructuretheyneeded.Thefiscal

supportsandeconomicimpactsofthepandemichavemade

thetasknearlyimpossible.Asevidencedbytherevisedfuture

developmentplansHS2(ahighspeedrailline)intheUK,7even

themostdevelopedmarketsmaystruggletofindthefiscalspacetodeliveronalltheirstatedobjectives.

Astheworldapproachesthe2030energytransitionmilestone(globalgreenhousegasemissionsneedtobecut43percent

by2030,comparedto2019levels,tolimitglobalwarmingto

1.5°C),itisbecomingincreasinglyclearthatexponentiallymoreinvestmentwillbeneeded.Yetgovernmentssimplydonothavethebudgetstomakethisareality.

Intheemergingmarkets,itoftenfallsontheMultilateral

DevelopmentBanks(MDB)andbignationaldevelopment

agenciestobridgethegap.Inpart,thisisabouthelpingmarketsandtheirregulatorstoimprovegovernance,enhanceproject

preparationcapabilitiesandprioritizepipelinesintoprogramsofworkthatmightattractprivateinvestors.

MDBfundingcanonlygosofarand,atbest,canactasa

catalystformobilizingmorecapital.AndmanyoftheMDBsarelimitedinhowmuchtheycanspend.Theircapitalincreases

aredictatedbyshareholdercountrieswhoarealsostruggling

tomeettheirowndomesticbudgetshortfalls.Despitetheir

criticalroleinclosinginfrastructuregapsinemergingmarkets,itisunlikelythatmorecapitalwillflowfromshareholdersintotheMDBsanytimesoon.

Canphilanthropiccapitalfillthegap?AccordingtoKPMG

professionalsanalysis,thequantumofphilanthropiccapitalbeing

allocatedtoinfrastructuredevelopmentisrising.Partofthe

increasedflowiscomingfromglobalphilanthropicorganizationsthathavealwaysbeenfocusedoncatalyzingpositiveoutcomesforsociety.AndKPMGmemberfirmsarealsoseeingincreasedallocationscomingfromfamilyofficesandultra-high-net-worthindividualsseekingtomakeanimpact.

WorkinginpartnershipwithMDBsanddevelopmentagencies,thesephilanthropicinvestorsareusingtheirfinancialstrengthanddifferentreturnexpectationstohelpMDBscrowdmore

privatesectorcapitalintoprojectsusingformsof‘blendedfinance’(atopichighontheagendaatCOP28)8where

developmentandphilanthropicfundsareusedtoreducetheriskforprivatecapital,therebymakingprojectsmorebankableandattractive.

AgoodexampleistherecentUS$1.1billionSDGLoanFund

developedbyAllianzGIandDutchDevelopmentBankFMO.9TheFundbenefitsfrommultiplelayersofriskprotectionincluding

a$111millionfirst-lossinvestmentfromFMO,whichiscredit-enhancedwitha$25millionunfundedphilanthropicguaranteeprovidedbytheJohnD.andCatherineT.MacArthurFoundation(MacArthurFoundation).MacArthurFoundation’stripleAratedguaranteeenabledFMO’sfirstlossinvestmentbyresolvingkeyriskandtechnicalfactors.

Overthecomingyear,manyMDBsandothermultilateralsareexpectedtoplaceagreaterfocusoncrowdinginphilanthropiccapitalasawaytobetterdriveprivatecapitalflows.Shouldtheybesuccessful,agreatervolumeofprojectsshouldstarttocometomarket—particularlyintheemergingmarkets.

7GOV.UK,PressRelease,PMredirectsHS2fundingtorevolutionisetransportacrosstheNorthandMidlands,October2023

8KPMGinSingapore,

Navigatingthepost-COP28landscapeforglobaldecarbonisation

,2023

9TheSDGLoanFund,BlendedFinanceFactSheet,ConvergenceBlendedCapital,2022

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Towardsthe‘infrastructuremesh’

Themagnetismofcitycentersisdiffusing.Manycityleaders

increasinglyrecognizethatstoringallofacity’svalueinthecenteriscreatinganimbalanceinaccessandopportunity.Italsoseemsclearthatcitizensarelookingforanewversionofthe’15-minutecity’whereeverythingiswithinreach…notwithstandingthe

occasionalcommuteintoanofficesomewhere.

Atthesametime,thereisacontinuedshifttowardsinfrastructuredecentralization.Mini-gridsandsolarpanelsarepoppingup

totakethepressureofflargebase-loadgenerationfacilities.10MobilityasaServiceprovidersareextendingthereachofmasstransitandbridgingthefinalmile.Digitalhealthcareismovingservicesintohomesandoutofhospitals.

Thisisafundamentallydifferentworldforinfrastructure

plannersandinvestors.Ratherthanfocusingonbuilding

massivetrunkinfrastructureandexpandingexistingnetworks,anopportunityisemergingtoinsteadfocusonincentivizing

businesses,consumersanduserstomeshtheirownassets

intotheinfrastructurethatisalreadyinplace.Andforexistinginfrastructureprovidersandownerstomeshtheirassetsmoreeffectivelyintotheholisticinfrastructurenetwork.

It’sabigopportunity.Greaterconnectivitybetweenpublicand

privateinfrastructurewillleadtogreatervalueofthewhole.Doneright,itisaboutmakingbetteruseoftheassetsthatarealreadyinplace.Atthesametime,aninfrastructure‘mesh’approach

allowsgovernmentstoaddresssomeoftheresilienceissuesthatnaturallycomefromputtingallyoureggsinonebasket.

Thisdoesnot,however,suggestthatgovernmentcansimplysitbackandletconsumerstakeontheburdenof

developingandpayingforurbaninfrastructure.Therearemany

infrastructureassetsandservicesthatwillremainsolelywithinthegovernment’sremit—eitherduetocostorcomplexity.

Governmentswillalsoneedtoensurethattheconnectivityinfrastructureisavailable,sustainableandeffectiveenoughtoallowmeshestoform(upgradingtheelectricitygenerationnetworktoaccommodatedecentralizedrenewables,for

example11).

Regulatorswillneedtoupdateandadapttheircapabilitiesin

ordertoaddresstherangeoftechnologyandbusinessmodel

challengestheynowface.Regulationworkswellinhighly

concentratedsectorswhereahandfulofcompaniescanbe

heldtoaccount.Reengineeringregulationtosuitadecentralizedmarketwhereconsumersarefeedingintothesystemand

payingtheirownreplacementcostswillbemuchtrickier.Newmechanismswillneedtobefound.

Thatbeingsaid,newcities,couldseeasignificantadvantagebysettingthestagefordistributedinfrastructurerightfromthestartbydesigningandimplementingbasedondecentralizedmodelsdeliveredthrougheffectivepartnerships.

Infrastructuredesignersanddeveloperswillalsoneedto

rethinktheirapproachestoincorporatingwholesystem

thinkingintotheirdesignsandconnectivityintotheirmodels.Thedaysofbuildingmonolithic,industrial-era,single-purposeassetsarecomingtoaclose.Infrastructureplayerswillneedtoadjustaccordingly.

Thisyear,expectmoregovernmentstostarttalkingaboutthe‘infrastructuremesh’(thoughmaybenotinthoseexactwords).Andexpectinfrastructureplayerstostartevolvinginresponse.

10WorldBank,SolarMiniGridsCouldPowerHalfaBillionPeopleby2030

11

KPMGInternational,Theroleofenergyandutilitiesinachievingnetzerocities

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Contractingfortechnology

Everyyear,thispublicationpredictsthattheinfrastructuresectorwillfinallyembracedigital,innovationandtechnology.Andwhiletherehavecertainlybeensomepocketsofdigitaltransformationseepingintotheinfrastructuresector,progresshasbeen

comparativelyslowversusothersectors.SowhydoKPMGprofessionalsthinkthingswillchangethisyear?

Someofouroptimismisbasedonthetechnologylandscape.

GenerativeAIshowedusthatdisruptivetechnologiescanemergeandgomainstreaminmonthsorevenweeks.Theuptakeofdigitaltwinsinassetmanagementanddesigndemonstratesthatindustryhasthecapacityanddesiretotransform.Demandfordigital

servicesfromusersandconsumersisamplifyingthepressure.

Recognizingpotentialfundingshortfallsandenvironmentalobjectives,manygovernmentsandassetownerssee

technologyasawaytomaximizethevalueofexistingassets

andinvestments.Thereisalsopressurerisingfrominvestors

andownerswhorecognizethattechnologycanenhancethe

sustainabilityandresilienceoftheirassets.Theydon’tjustexpecttoseetechnologyembeddedintodesigns,theyalsowantto

knowhowtheassetswillabsorborintegratenew(andpossiblyas-yetunimagined)technologiesinthefuture.

Thereissomecauseforskepticismthatthistrendwillmaterializeinthenextyear.Therealityisthatithastakendecadesforthe

constructionindustrytoadoptthingslikeBuildingInformation

Modeling(BIM),modularconstructionanddigitaltwins.Marginsforconstructioncompaniesremaintightandtherearefewdemand-

sideincentivestoencouragethemtoinvestintechnologiesthat

aren’tei