房地產(chǎn)價格專業(yè)分析

PPT模板下載：1ppt/moban/行業(yè)PPT模板：1ppt/hangye/節(jié)日PPT模板：1ppt/jieri/PPT素材下載：1ppt/sucai/PPT背景圖片：1ppt/beijing/PPT圖表下載：1ppt/tubiao/優(yōu)秀PPT下載：1ppt/xiazai/PPT教程：1ppt/powerpoint/Word教程：1ppt/word/Excel教程：1ppt/excel/資料下載：1ppt/ziliao/PPT課件下載：1ppt/kejian/范文下載：1ppt/fanwen/PricesRISEorFALL,itisaQuestionThehousepricedebate

Onlyonthemepresentation

MarketDrivers

The

URBANIZATION

processChinaisundergoingarapidandmassiveurbanization

processwhichisexpectedtolastforthenexttento

fifteenyears.Asurbaneconomiesgrowmuchfasterthan

thoseinruralareasmorepeoplearemovingtothecities

insearchofbetteropportunities.(Figure1)In2003,therewere40citieswithmorethanonemillionliversinChina,thisnumberincreasedto122in2021.Thepopulationineachofthefirsttiercitieshasnowexceeded10million.Bytheendof2021,theurbanizationrateinChinawas46.6%.

MarketDrivers

Strongowneroccupancy

demandvs.SPECULATIONPartlyduetothisurbanizationprocess,therehasbeena

tremendousincreaseindemandforhousinginthepast

fiveyears,whichtheconstructionindustryhasnotbeen

abletokeepupwith.(thebelowFigure2showsthesituation)Inordertoaddressthissituation,sincetheendof2021,thegovhasbeenincreasingthelandsupplyforaffordablehousing,andcompellingdeveloperstospeeduptheconstructionofhousingbyimposingheavyfinesonlandthatisleftidle.

MarketDrivers

FIRSTTIER

versussecondtiercitiesGeographically,datashowsthatresidentialpricesin

thefirsttiercitieshaveingeneralgrownmuchfasterthan

thoseinthesecondtiercities,partlydueto

speculativeactivity.Majormetropolisesoftenfacebigger

housingpressurethansmallercitiesbecauseofalarger

migratorypopulation.Astheeconomiesinthesecities

grow

faster,wealthisoftenchanneledintorealestateforthelackofalternativeinvestmentchannelsandthelackofmarkettransparency.(Figure3)Additionally,firsttiercitiestendtoattractinternationalinvestmentbuyersdrawnbythepossibilityofrapidpricegrowth,whichaddstotheoveralldemandforhousinginthesecities.Acloserlookat

AFFORDABILITYIntheFigure4wehavealsoillustratedtheratioofhome

pricegrowthtoGDPgrowth.Thenearertheratioto1,thecloseristhecorrelationbetweenhomepricegrowth

andGDPgrowth.Alsotheflattertheline,thelessvolatile

thiscorrelationbecomes.Aswecanseeoverthepast

decade,despitefearsofahousingmarketmeltdown,

homepricesinChinahavegrownconsistentlybelowhalf

therateoftheoveralleconomy.

PRICE9.1%-9.2%PRICE

Acloserlookat

AFFORDABILITYTofurtherexaminethegrowthinhomepricesinChina

wehaveconstructedanaffordabilitytrendindex.We

measureaffordabilitybyindexingtheratioofhousehold

incomegrowthtohomepricegrowthandcomparingthe

two.Forthepurposeofthisexercisewehavenot

includedinterestratelevelsormortgagepayments.AFFORDABILITYINSELECTEDCITIESAcity-levelanalysisofaffordabilityinChinafurtherconfirmsourfindings(Figure5);homesinChina’sfirstandsecondtiercitiesaremoreaffordablenowthantheywerein2003.Theeffectofrisinghomepricesin2021isevidentinBeijing,ShanghaiandHangzhou,whereaffordabilityhasworsened,particularlyinBeijing.Affordabilityinthesecitiesappearstohavenowplateaued.Inthesmallersecondtiercitiesaffordabilitycontinuestoimprove.1st

AFFORDABILITY

analysisoftheworldFromthismeasureweseethatnotonlyhasChina’s

affordabilitylevelimprovedoverthelast10years,but

thereisbetteraffordabilityinChinathaninmanyofthe

moremature,developedeconomiessuchastheUKand

theUS(Figure6).Moreover,incontrastwiththemore

volatilerelationshipsinalmostalltheothercountrieswe

surveyed,apartfromAustralia,affordabilityinChinahas

beenimprovingsteadilysincethebeginningofthe

decadeonthebackofrisingincomelevels.INCREASERAPIDImpactontheCOMMERCIALmarketisLimitedItshouldbepointedoutthatdespitealltheturmoilinthe

residentialmarketwehavenotseensimilar

characteristicsemerginginthecommercialmarkets.

Officerentsandpricesinfirsttiercitieshavelargelybeen

influencedbydemandandsupply(Figure7).Thissupply

anddemandmixisinturncoupledwiththeupsand

downsoftheeconomy.Giventhelargepotentialsupply

inthesecities,theofficemarketisunlikelytoseethesort

ofspeculationseenintheresidential

market,whichwas

partlydrivenbythelackofsupply.

THE

INACTION

ofthe

GOVERNMENTAlllandisownedbythegovernment,andincomefromsellinglandformsamajorpartofitsincome.RealestateisoneofthepillarindustriesoftheChineseeconomy,contributingmorethan16%toChina’sGDPin2021.Landconveyancefeeshavebecomethemostimportantrevenuesourcesforlocalgovernments.IncitieslikeBeijing,ShanghaiandTianjin,incomefromlandsalesreachedcloseto30%ofgovernmentincomein2021(TheTablebelowshowsthedetailedratio),whileinsmallercitiessuchasHangzhouandWuhanoverhalfoftheirannualincomecomesfromthissource.Localgovernmentreliesonlandsalestogeneraterevenuestofueleconomicgrowth,tolaunchurbanrenewalprojects,andtoprovideservices.Sohowcouldthehousingpricereallygolower?ImpossibleOtherFACTORSaffectthehousingpriceInanefforttoputabrakeonresidentialpricerisesnationwide,fromJanuarytoAprilthisyeartherewerenolessthan10occa