全球EV準(zhǔn)備度排名2023-英

REP2O0R2T3G

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3Charting

the

progressive

course

ofe-mobility

across

the

worldC

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SFORE

WORD46E

XECUTIVE

SUMMARY

&

K

E

Y

FINDING

S1

.

GEMRIX

2023

ME

THODOLO

GY2

.

GLOBAL

BENCHMARKS1018DR.

ANDREAS

SCHLOSSERHIROTAKA

UCHIDAPartner,

Global

LeadCentral

EuropePartnerSoutheast

Asia

&

JapanDR.

PHILIPP

SEIDELAMIT

DAKSHINIPrincipalCentral

EuropeAssociate

DirectorIndiaDR.

RAYMOND

KHOURYPartnerMiddle

EastWe

would

like

to

acknowledge

all

those

who

contributed

to

this

Report,

especially:Hala

Akiki,

Gunseli

Alic,

Eren

Atsiz,

Nicola

Borgo,

Thao

Do,

Hirotoshi

Ema,

Shrey

Gandhi,Walid

Ben

Hammadi,

Naomichi

Hirose,

Felix

Hoffmann,

Riya

Jain,

Dominic

Kuriakose,Akshay

Prasad,

Fabian

Sempf,

Serkan

Somer,

Rahul

Tiwary,

and

Thitiya

Visittpong2C

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N

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N

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C

ACONCLUSION923R

E

P

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T:

G

EM

R

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X

2

0

2

3A

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T

H

U

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D

.

L

I

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T

L

EF

O

R

E

W

O

R

DCatastrophic

climate

change

urges

global

shift

toward

electric

vehicles—buttheworld

needsto

establish

its

readinessThe

pressing

issue

of

climate

change,

which

world-renowned

naturalist

David

Attenborough

called

“thebiggest

threat

to

security

that

modern

humans

haveever

faced,”

brought

world

leaders

to

a

single

stageculminating

in

the

landmark

Paris

Agreement.

Thisresulted

in

the

requirement

for

countries

to

submitclimate

action

plans

known

as

Nationally

DeterminedContributions

(NDCs),

outlining

their

emissions-reduction

targets

and

the

measures

they

wouldundertake

to

achieve

them.Energy

is

at

the

heart

of

today’s

climate

challengeand

key

to

the

solution,

with

the

inherent

need

totransition

from

fossil

fuels

to

clean,

sustainable

energy.The

transport

sector,

in

particular,

is

responsible

forapproximately

a

quarter

of

greenhouse

gas

(GHG)emissions,

with

about

95%

of

the

world’s

transportenergy

coming

from

fossil

fuels.

Thus,

the

electrificationof

transportation

offers

a

promising

solution

to

climatechange

—

but

only

if

combined

with

a

transition

toelectric

energy

generation

from

renewable

resources.In

any

case,

electric

vehicles

(EVs)

beat

alternativepowertrain

technologies

with

internal

combustionengines

(ICEs)

in

efficiency

by

a

wide

margin,disregarding

the

burning

of

fuel.44A

R

T

H

U

R

D

.

L

I

T

T

L

EOf

course,

ending

the

age

of

the

combustion

engine

isstill

a

challenge

for

large

parts

of

the

planet.

However,with

90%

of

the

world

GDP

now

covered

with

net-zerocommitments

and

pressure

on

companies

to

counterclimate

change

through

new

products,

processes,

andpurpose,

e-mobility

topics

have

moved

up

the

strategicagenda

for

automotive

executives

around

the

globe.

Toassist

executives

in

organizations

of

all

kinds

around

theworld,

Arthur

D.

Little

(ADL)

has

set

up

a

methodology

toevaluate

the

“readiness”

of

markets

for

electric

mobilityand

help

formulate

strategies

based

on

the

data.

Thestandardized

approach

and

detailed

analysis

of

keymarket

drivers

for

EVs

enable

a

solid

understanding

ofthe

current

situation.ADL’scurrent

analysis

covers

35

markets

acrossall

continents

under

varied

situations

regardingdemographics,

economics,

motorization,

energygeneration,

and

so

forth.

In

this

Report,

we

provide

anoverview

of

the

key

results

of

the

2023

edition

of

theGlobal

Electric

Mobility

Readiness

Index

(GEMRIX),which

ADL

first

carried

out

in

2018

under

the

name,“BEV

Readiness

Study.”Dr.Andreas

SchlosserPartner,

Global

Lead,

Automotive5R

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V

E

S

U

M

M

A

R

Y&

K

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Y

F

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N

D

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N

G

SGEMRIX

2023

is

the

third

edition

of

the

study

and

nowincludes

35

markets

across

all

continents

(see

Figure

1).Already

since

the

2022

edition,

there

has

been

a

massivejump

in

EV

adoption

worldwide.

Norway

has

defended

itsposition

as

the

global

leader

of

the

EV

readiness

ranking,but

a

new

challenger

is

getting

closer,

making

huge

steps:China.The

two

markets

are

followed

by

three

distinct

groups

ofcountries.

All

countries

are

moving

to

increase

EV

adoption,following

similar

patterns

but

with

differences

in

time

by

afew

years,

as

some

started

earlier

than

others.

We

discerndifferences

between

global

markets

primarily

in

specificlegislation

and,

to

a

lesser

extent,

socioeconomic

factors.In

countries

with

higher

income,

for

example,

environmentprotection

plays

a

crucial

role,

while

in

countries

with

loweraverage

income,

cost

is

the

primary

determining

factor.

Theperspective

to

participate

in

a

new,

dynamically

growingindustry

also

sets

incentives

for

vehicle

electrification

inmany

regions.Figure

1.

Global

Electric

Mobility

Readiness

Index

—

GEMRIX

2023GlobalAmbitiousFollowersEmergingStarterBenchmarkEV

marketsMarkets1179810085Macrofactors8179EVmarketCustomerEVreadinessPubliccharging57

5755

5453TCO&governmentregulation48

4746

46

4644

44

43

4342

4038

3835

3534

33

3231

3029

28

28

2820Source:

Arthur

D.Little6A

R

T

H

U

R

D

.

L

I

T

T

L

EIn

the

2023

GEMRIX

study,

the

markets

are

classified

intofour

clusters:1.

Global

Benchmark

—

markets

with

a

GEMRIX

score

of100

or

above.

In

the

2022

edition,

only

Norway,a

leadmarket

for

electric

mobility,

populated

this

categorywith

more

than

110

points.

This

year,

for

the

first

time,

asecond

market

has

moved

closer

to

the

threshold:

Chinascores

98

points.

Among

the

35

markets,

Norway

is

stillthe

only

country

with

an

EV

sales

share

of

more

than50%.

A

stunning

88%

of

all

new

cars

sold

in

Norway

in2022

were

either

battery

electric

vehicles

(BEVs)

orplug-in

hybrid

electric

vehicles

(PHEVs).2.

Ambitious

Followers—

where

all

prerequisites

forEV

mobility

are

in

place

and

EVsare

on

the

verge

ofbecoming

mainstream.

Example

markets

in

this

categoryare

Germany,

Singapore,

and

the

UK.

Among

AmbitiousFollowers,

EVshave

increased

their

sales

shares

to

morethan

30%.

In

leading

markets,

a

full

range

of

EV

models

indifferent

formats

and

price

ranges

is

available,

serving

abroad

spectrum

of

client

needs.

However,even

in

leadingmarkets,

OEMs

are

still

under

pressure

to

expand

their

EVofferings,

especially

to

the

entry

market

segment.3.

Emerging

EV

Markets—

where

conditions

for

EVsare

still

inferior

to

those

for

ICE

vehicles,

even

thoughcustomers

are

becoming

more

comfortable

with

theidea

of

EVsas

infrastructure

is

ramping

up.

Examplemarkets

are

the

US,

Japan,

the

UAE,

and

India.

Here,

wesee

mainly

scores

between

40

and

60,

with

the

UAE

andHong

Kong

emerging

as

the

front-runners

with

a

scoreof

57.

In

these

markets,

we

still

see

a

few

operationaland

financial

drawbacks.

However,

these

countrieshave

demonstrated

a

clear

intention

to

make

steadyprogress

toward

e-mobility.

They

are

making

significantinvestments

to

boost

the

landscape

—

and

will

likelycatch

up

soon.

For

example,

an

entrepreneurial

culture7R

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2

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a

start-up

ecosystem

have

played

a

pivotal

role

indriving

EV

innovations

in

the

Americas,

Southeast

Asia(SEA),

and

the

Middle

East.

Furthermore,

the

UAE

hasexperienced

an

increase

in

EV

charging

infrastructureowing

to

government-led

initiatives,

a

significantcatalyst

behind

the

increasing

number

of

consumerswilling

to

buy

an

EV

as

their

next

vehicle.4.

Starter

Markets—

where

EVshave

just

entered

thegame

and

still

face

major

challenges

in

terms

of

costsand

infrastructure

readiness.

Example

markets

are

SouthAfrica,

Malaysia,

and

Türkiye.

In

Starter

Markets,

electricmobility

is

just

beginning

to

enter

the

conversation.Consumers

are

excited

about

embracing

sustainabletechnologies,

including

EVs,

as

reflected

in

thesecountries

scoring

high

in

readiness.

Given

lower

fuelcosts

in

these

regions,

higher

total

cost

of

ownership(TCO)

of

an

EV

is

a

deterrent.

The

limited

availability

ofEV

options

is

yet

another

major

issue.

Additionally,

givenglobal

awareness

regarding

climate

change

and

a

call

forsustainability,

these

regions

have

ventured

into

electricmobility

and

announced

initiatives,

but

execution

andimplementation

at

scale

remain

to

be

seen.

Although

theexpansion

of

the

EV

charging

infrastructure

is

still

in

itsnascent

stage,

these

countries

are

likely

to

ascend

in

therankings

as

concerns

surrounding

charging

accessibilityare

alleviated.

Moreover,governments

exhibit

a

stronginclination

toward

promoting

e-mobility

in

publictransportation.Regarding

Customer

Readiness,

cost

is

one

of

the

most,if

not

the

most,

important

drivers

of

EV

adoption.

Thisposes

a

challenge

in

developing

countries

as

EV

pricesare

still

high

and

income

is

comparatively

low.

Thus,

OEMsneed

to

decrease

costs,

while

governments

need

to

createincentives

to

pave

the

road

to

success

and

allow

customersto

enjoy

electric

mobility.

Especially

in

markets

with

lowcosts

for

fossil

fuels,

there

needs

to

be

improvement

withTCO

for

EVs

to

enable

a

breakthrough.8A

R

T

H

U

R

D

.

L

I

T

T

L

EIn

terms

of

Infrastructure

Readiness,

battling

rangeanxiety

—

the

fear

that

a

vehicle’s

battery

will

not

havesufficient

charge

to

reach

the

destination

—

is

a

key

issue.DC

chargers

are

becoming

more

popular,

as

they

lowercharge

time,

are

perfectly

suited

to

highways,

and

decreaserange

anxiety.

Charging

industry

players

should

focus

onthe

Emerging

EV

Markets

—

as

these

countries

are

aboutto

solve

the

chicken-and-egg

problem

(i.e.,

determiningwhich

must

be

in

place

first,

infrastructure

or

EVs),

if

theyhaven’t

already

done

so,

and

governments

are

pushinginfrastructure

buildup,

enabling

players

to

win

large-scalecontracts.

In

markets

with

a

quickly

rising

EV

population,the

challenge

is

to

keep

up

with

infrastructure

installationsto

avoid

creating

barriers

to

adoption.Government

Readiness

hinges

on

government’swillingness

to

take

the

first

step

by

introducing

wideincentives

for

purchasing

vehicles.

Customers

should

notpay

a

premium

for

EVs.

Moreover,

governments

need

toreduce

TCO

by

introducing

incentives

for

vehicle

usage.Promoting

EV

adoption

in

Emerging

EV

Markets

and

StarterMarkets

will

give

charging

infrastructure

players

theincentive

to

enter

a

country,

creating

a

reinforcing

spiralof

EV

adoption.Betting

on

EVs

is

no

longer

a

risky

gamble,

and

thepredictability

of

the

EV

market

is

continuing

to

grow.

The

onlymajor

driver

that

cannot

be

predicted

fully

is

governmentpolicy.

However,

making

reasonable

assumptions

about

thiswill

give

the

industry

in

all

countries

firm

ground

on

which

tobase

their

planning.9R

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.

G

E

M

R

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0

2

3

M

E

T

H

O

D

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G

YGEMRIX

evaluates

countries’

progress

toward

e-mobility,

providinga

comprehensive

assessmentof

their

suitability

forEVadoptionINDEX

METHODOLOGYEach

category

is

further

broken

down

into

six&

APPROACHto

16

specific

data

metrics,

analyzed

with

astandardized

metric

for

each

country,

rendering47variables

per

country.ADL’s

2023

GEMRIX

has

been

calculated

for35

countries.

The

index

provides

aplatform

tocompare

countries’

preparedness

and

progresstoward

e-mobility.

GEMRIX

is

calibratedbetween

notional

scores

of

0and

100.

Ascoreof

100

implies

that

ICE

vehicles

and

EVs

areat

the

same

level

in

terms

of

acceptability,affordability,

and

availability.

The

higher

thescore,

the

higher

the

favorable

transition

to

EVsin

the

country.

Thus,

ascore

beyond

100

showsthat

EVs

are

even

more

beneficial

than

ICEs.The

five

categories

are

assigned

weightsaccording

to

their

relevance

for

EV

adoption.The

countries

can

score

different

points

ineach

category,

with

each

metric

within

thecategories

varying

by

weight

and

market

data.The

individual

point

score

is

calculated

fromanalytics

that

consider

relative

and

absoluteperformance

measures.

The

final

GEMRIX

scoreis

the

aggregate

of

performance

indicators

fromthe

five

subcategories,

providing

athoroughassessment

of

acountry’s

suitability

fore-mobility.GEMRIX

comprises

five

major

categoriesreflecting

EV

adoption:

(1)

macro

factors,(2)

EV

market

and

competitive

landscape,(3)

customer

EV

readiness,

(4)public

charginginfrastructure,

and

(5)

TCO

and

governmentregulation

(see

Figure

2).Figure

2.

GEMRIX

categoriesMacrofactors???GDPpercapitaQualityofelectricity

infrastructureMotorizationrateEVmarket&competitivelandscape??EV

marketshare

and5-yearsales

forecastEV

productofferingCustomerEVreadiness???Customerslikelihood

tobuyEV

asnextvehicleTCOSustainability

mindsetPubliccharging

infrastructureGEMRIX??Public

chargingnetwork

deploymentforecastDCandHPchargingnetwork

densityTCO&governmentregulation??Quantitative

&

qualitative

benefits

forEVDirect

financial

subsidies

forEV

&infrastructureSource:

Arthur

D.Little1

0A

R

T

H

U

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D

.

L

I

T

T

L

EA

COUNTRY’

Srenewable

energy

into

their

generationportfolios.

Importantly,

resilient

electrical

gridinfrastructure

can

accommodate

the

growingdemand

for

charging

EVs.

The

availability

of

asecure

and

steady

electrical

supply

guaranteesEV

owners

aseamless

charging

experience,

thuseasing

the

transition

to

electric

mobility.RENE

WABLE

ENERGYPRODUCTION

ANDROAD

QUALIT

Y

PL

AYSIGNIFICANT

ROLESIN

DE

TERMININGE-MOBILIT

Y

RE

ADINESSCOMPE

TITIONAMONG

OEMs

,

THEAVAIL

ABILIT

Y

OF

BE

Vs

,AND

GOVERNMENTINITIATIVES

PROMOTEINNOVATION

ANDAFFORDABILIT

YMacro

factorsAcountry’s

macroeconomic

conditions

cansubstantially

impact

its

readiness

for

e-mobilitysolutions.

GDP

per

capita,

net

income,

andgrowth

rate

are

among

key

macroeconomicstatistics.

Higher

GDP

per

capita

means

moredisposable

income

for

emerging

technologylike

EVs;

the

share

of

the

urban

population

alsopaves

the

way

for

EV

adoption

(see

Figure

3).As

cities

typically

have

higher

pollution

andcongestion

levels,

EVs

are

appealing

to

mitigatethese

risks

in

urban

cities.EV

market

&competitive

landscapeThe

level

of

competition

among

OEMs

impactsacountry’s

EV

adoption

—higher

competitionresults

in

more

innovation,

lower

prices,

andbetter

consumer

services

(see

Figure

4).

Thenumber

of

BEV

or

PHEV

models

offered

in

themarket

by

OEMs

also

indicates

the

availabilityof

consumer

choices,

which

drives

competitionand

innovation.

This,

in

turn,

can

make

EVs

moreaccessible

and

affordable

to

abroader

range

ofpeople.Furthermore,

renewable

energy

production

canboost

e-mobility

preparedness

by

poweringEVs

with

cleaner,

more

sustainable

energy.Renewable

energy

production

is

crucial

forEVs

to

be

atruly

sustainable

alternativeto

ICE

vehicles.

Smart

grids

are

also

vitalas

governments

pursue

ambitious

plans

toboost

their

electricity

supply

and

integrateFigure

3.

Summary

of

macro

factors100%100%99%100%93%

93%

92%90%89%88%87%87%86%87%87%84%5484%83%5385%82%78%78%

77%74%71%69%68%65%64%57%52%48%43%37%35%5438394036333431291817101141111118776546522133333Adjusted

netincome

percapita

($USk)ShareofurbanpopulationSource:

Arthur

D.Little1

1R

E

P

O

R

T:

G

EM

R

I

X

2

0

2

3Figure

4.

Summary

of

market

and

competitive

landscapeVehicle

marketsize,2022

(pastcarsales/population)Vehicle

marketgrowthexpectations,

2022–2026MarketsharePHEV,

2022MarketshareBEV,202221BEV/PHEVmarketshareexpectations,

2022–2026E-mobility

importance

innon-PCsegments:

sales

ofelectric

buses&trucksNumberofBEVoffered

inmarket(OEM,modelline)NumberofPHEVofferedinmarket(OEM,modelline)151312111088777766655554433333332222211Source:

Arthur

D.LittleFigure

5.

Sales

share

of

PHEV

and

BEV

per

market86%25%

26%22%19%12%10%8%8%7%5%4%

4%6%3%2%3%3%2%3%1%0%0%0%

1%

0%

0%1%0%

0%1%

1%0%

0%

0%BEVPHEVSource:

Arthur

D.LittleRecently,

EV

markets

globally

have

proved

tobe

very

dynamic

(see

Figure

5).

While

it

was

onlytwo

years

ago

in

which

the

EV

market

outsideChina

was

dominated

by

emerging

players

(withTesla

leading

the

way),

many

incumbent

OEMshave

since

raced

to

overtake

them.

German

andUS

OEMs

are

agood

example

of

this

volatility.Up

to

2019,

they

only

reluctantly

introducedEVs.

Customers

interested

in

electric

cars

of

anew

kind

largely

had

to

turn

to

Tesla.

Startingin

2020,

however,

pushed

by

governmentAtthe

same

time,

Chinese

EV

manufacturers

arenow

ready

to

export

their

EVs

all

over

the

world.Moreover,

in

many

countries,

new

dedicated

EVbrands

and

manufacturers

have

been

installedand

are

about

to

start

operation,

for

example,in

Vietnam,

Türkiye,

and

Saudi

Arabia,

amongothers.initiatives

and

the

pressure

of

coming

late

tothis

important

future

market,

German

OEMsrapidly

introduced

new

all-electric

lines

andmodels.

The

US

saw

avery

similar

uptake,

asmajor

US

OEMs

—including

Ford

and

GM

—also

electrified

their

mainstream

model

lines.1

2A

R

T

H

U

R

D

.

L

I

T

T

L

ECUSTOMERS’

ABILIT

YTO

CHARGE

E

Vs

ATHOME

,

OPENNESS

TOTECHNOLOGY,

ANDENVIRONMENTALFigure

6summarizes

the

factors

influencingcustomer

readiness,

while

Figure

7zones

in

oncustomers

likely

to

buy

aPHEV/BEV

as

their

nextvehicle.The

topic

of

charging

naturally

leads

toaccessibility.

Wesee

acorrelation

between

theshare

of

apopulation

living

in

urban

areas

andEV

readiness.

Lack

of

access

to

public

charginginfrastructure

is

amassive

hurdle

to

theCONCERNS

ARE

DECISIVECustomer

EV

readinessadoption

of

EVs.

Globally,

the

density

of

publiccharging

points

in

rural

areas

is

nowhere

nearthe

density

of

petroleum

stations.

With

mostEVs

are

still

of

lower

range

compared

to

theirICE

counterparts,

countries

with

alarge

ruralpopulation

have

asignificant

challenge

to

solve,as

is

very

visible

in

India

and

Vietnam.

Again,this

hurdle

is

much

less

pronounced

for

two-wheelers

(2Ws),

which

can

be

charged

effectivelyusing

standard

household

power

lines.Customer

preparedness

allows

for

theacceleration

of

EV

adoption

and

promotion.This

is

influenced

by

such

factors

as

the

chanceof

acquiring

an

EV,Internet

penetration,

andEV

pricing

versus

ICE

automobiles.

Ahigherincidence

of

homeownership

can

create

awider

pool

of

potential

EV

owners

who

canreadily

access

and

install

home-charginginfrastructure.Figure

6.

Summary

of

customer

EV

readiness2826Availability

of22kWACatdedicated

homeparkingorequivalentSmartphonepenetrationHomeownershiprateinmarket(country)Innovation

index(INSEAD,

Cornell,WIPO)Customerslikely

to

buyPHEV/BEVasnext

vehicleAveragedailytrip/commute

length19

191817

171716

1615

151413

1211111111111110

10

10109887776655Source:

Arthur

D.LittleFigure

7.

Customers

likely

to

buy

PHEV

or

BEV

as

next

vehicle

per

market100%82%83%80%80%75%74%72%68%66%66%55%53%51%50%50%48%48%49%45%44%45%41%42%40%38%38%33%26%27%25%24%

24%21%5%Source:

Arthur

D.Little1

3R

E

P

O

R

T:

G

EM

R

I

X

2

0

2

3Factors

like

knowledge

and

automobileA

COMPREHENSIVEAND

RELIABLE

ACAND

DC

CHARGINGINFR

ASTRUCTURENE

T

WORK

IS

CRUCIALFOR

GROW

TH

ANDSUCCESS

OF

E

Vpreferences

also

determine

customer

readiness.Afavorable

inclination

toward

EVs

enablesgreater

adoption,

as

the

lucrative

demand

sidewill

push

the

supply

side,

namely,

governmentand

OEMs,

to

enter

the

EV

market.

One

factorsignaling

customer

preference

for

EVs

is

thehomeownership

rate.

Homeowners

have

theflexibility

of

charging

installation,

therebymaking

e-commutes

more

feasible.

Somecountries,

such

as

Oman

and

Qatar,

havefared

well

in

GEMRIX

due

to

upbeat

customerreadiness,

primarily

driven

by

homeownershiprates.

Range

anxiety

is

another

factor

thatconcerns

consumers.

Thus,

ashorter

averagelength

of

commute

bolsters

the

use

of

EVs.INDUSTRYPublic

charging

infrastructureThe

availability

and

quality

of

charginginfrastructure

are

critical

variables

in

acountry’s

EV

industry’s

growth

and

success.Before

purchasing

an

EV,consumers

musthave

faith

in

the

availability

and

dependabilityof

charging

infrastructure.

Acomprehensivecharging

infrastructure

network,

includingboth

ACand

DC

networks,

can

improve

theconvenience

and

appeal

of

owning

an

EV

byincreasing

the

number

of

opportunities

fordrivers

to

recharge

their

vehicles.

Furthermore,developing

acharging

infrastructure

networkcan

boost

customer

trust

and

encourage

EVadoption,