財務報表分析與證券投資姜國華

28十二月2023財務報表分析與證券投資姜國華TheFatherofAccounting-LucaPacioli

(1445-1517)HewroteafamousmathematicsbookInonechapterheinventeddouble-entryaccountingsystemHetaughtLeonardoDaVinciperspectiveandproportionality.Theknowledgewasusedtopaint“theLastSupper”2學過財務報表分析課程的請舉手3DowJonesIndustrialAverage1930-20024DJIA,NASDAQ1990-20025BacktoSquareOne:DJIA1998-20026DorDot.bomb-NASDAQ1998-20027TheThreeMajorStockExchanges8TheRegulatorofU.S.StockMarketSEC,theSecuritiesandExchangeCommissionArthurLevitt,commissioner,1993-2000intheClintonadministrationNumbersGameSpeech,19989TheCurrentSECCommissioners10WhoIssueAmericanAccountingStandards?FASB:FinancialAccountingStandardsBoard Setupin1973toreplaceAccountingPrincipleBoard(APB) Anindependent,privateorganization StandardsissuedrecognizedbySEC

GAAP:GenerallyAcceptedAccountingStandards 7conceptstatements(principles) e.g.,No.7(February2000)Usingcashflowinformationandpresentvalueinaccountingmeasurements 148statementsofstandards(rules)bytheyearof2003 e.g.,No.1(December1973)Disclosureofforeigncurrencytranslationinformation11InternationalAccountingStandardsInternationalAccountingStandardsCommittee(IASC) BasedatLondon Independentandprivatelyfunded Meanttodesignasetofworldlyacceptedaccountingstandards Committeeserveasanadvisoryboardmember

.ukInternationalAccountingStandards 41standardsuptotheyearof2003 e.g.,IAS2.Inventory,January1,199512“BigFour”InternationalAccountingFirmsErnstYoung(worldwiderevenue2002:$10.1billions,4.3billionsintheU.S.)PriceWaterhouseCoopersDeloitte&ToucheKPMG13中華人民共和國證券監(jiān)督管理委員會

(ChineseSecuritiesRegulatoryCommission)14NumberofStocksatShanghaiandShenzhenstockexchanges15AmountofCapitalRaisedThroughStockMarkets16MarketCapitalization17MarketSizerelativetoNYSE18MarketPerformance19ProfitabilityofChineseListedFirms:1992-200420ROE21

StockMarketCapitalization/GDP(%)

22SharetypesinChinaSharesTradableNon-tradableIndividualForeignLegalpersonStateAshareBshareH,N,S,…Share2324ShareStructuresofChineseListedCompanies

(December,2001)Non-tradable(0.1billionshares): StateShares2410.6146.20％ DomesticLegalPersonShares663.1712.71％ Othernon-tradableShares331.076.4%Totalnon-tradable3404.8565.25％Tradable: AShares1318.1325.26%BShares163.093.13%H/Nandothershares331.946.36%TotalTradable:1813.1634.75%Total:5218.01100%25LargeShareholderexpropriationofminorityshareholders/TunnelingAnExample,Jiang,LeeandYue,(2005)2627China’sStockMarket:Aten-yearperspectiveFromzerotoanimportantemergingcapitalmarketFirstdevelopedfast,thenbecamestagnant: Fewernewlistings Marketindexdown Raiseslesscapital Lesstradingactivities ListedcompaniesperformedworseOverallLessimportantintheboomingeconomy!28TheUsersoffinancialstatementsEquityinvestorsCreditorsGovernmentCustomerSuppliersLaborunion29課程結(jié)構(gòu)第一節(jié)會計信息與資本市場介紹第二節(jié)會計報表回顧-資產(chǎn)負債表第三節(jié)會計報表回顧-損益表第四節(jié)會計報表回顧-現(xiàn)金流量表第五節(jié)贏余管理與贏余質(zhì)量第六節(jié)贏利能力分析第七節(jié)贏利預測第八節(jié)風險分析第九節(jié)證券價值評估30PerspectivesofThisCourseAsecurityanalyst’sperspectiveEmphasizetwoissues:EarningsManagementandvaluation31EarningsManagement:Rao,Teoh,Wong,ReviewofAccountingStudies,199832EarningsRestatements–MinWu,HKUST333435WidespreadEarningsManipulation(JiangandWang2005)36Accounting-basedValuationWhoaremypeers?Earningsmultiples,book-valuemultiples,salesmultiplesEVA?,Economicvalueadded,Residualincomevaluation(RIV),Edward,Bell,OhlsonModel(EBO)Inoneword,Sharevalue=f(earnings,bookvalue,dividend,cashflow,etc.)37Accounting-basedValuation-2Ultimately,wedovaluationtoearnhigherreturnsonstocktrading.Wegetanintrinsicvaluenumber,compareittoprevailingstockprice,ifourvalueestimateishigherthanprice,webuy;otherwisewesell.FrankelandLee,JournalofFinance,1999

Togetpapersmentioned,fromaPKUcomputer,gotoorjustaskfromme.38HowImportantisAccountingInformation?January22,2003,aftermarketclosed,AT&T(stocksymbolT)announced: Revenuefor4thquartershrankto$9.3billionfrom10.2billioninthe4thquarterofpreviousyear

Lossfromcontinuingoperationswidenedto$611millionfrom$216million.

39HowImportantisAccountingInformation?

(http:\\)40HowImportantisAccountingInformation?IntheweekendbeforeMonday,Feb.3,2003,Mattel(MAT)announcedfourthquarterresults:Revenueincreasedfromthefourthquarterayearearlierby6.9%to$1.56billion.Netincomeincreasedby35%to$186.1million.Earningspershare(EPS)increasedto42centsfrom31cents.41HowImportantisAccountingInformation?42ValueInvesting:WarrenBuffett

()43InvestingMottoTwofriendswenthuntinginthejungle.Allofasudden,abearjumpedoutofnowhereandcameafterthem.A:Run!B:No,itishop