房地產市場風險中英文對照外文翻譯文獻

中英文對照外文翻譯(文檔含英文原文和中文翻譯)原文:TheresearchofriskpreventioninrealestatemarketAbstractOnApril2,2007,thesecondlargestintheUnitedStatessubprimemortgagecompanynewcenturyfinancialfiledforbankruptcyprotectiontosign,theUSsubprimemortgagecrisis.InSeptember2008,America'sfourth-largestinvestmentbankLehmanbrothersfiledforbankruptcyprotectionforlogo,America'ssubprimecrisiscouldworsen.Thefinancialindustry,withthefurtherdevelopmentofthesubprimecrisis,thecrisisofanindustrybegantospreadtothevarietyoftherealeconomy,retail,autoindustry,cateringindustry,andotherfieldsofsalesdecline,shrinkingdemandsituation.Notonlythat,influencedbythesubprimecrisis,thedomesticunemploymentrising,continuetodollardepreciation,thestockindexcontinuestodecline,realestatepricescontinuetofall,fallingconsumerconfidenceindex,economicprospectsaregrim.Contradictionsintherealestateindustryhasbeenhighlighted,realestatedevelopmentprojectisoverlydependentonbankcapital,transferalltherisktocommercialBanks,thecommercialBanksfacehugerealestatefinancialrisks,isoneoftheprominentcontradictions.Thisriskoncetheoutbreak,posesagreatthreattotheentiresystemwillbe.Therefore,studyhowtopreventtherealestatefinancialriskshasthesignificanttheoryandrealisticsignificance.Keywords:Realestate;Financialrisk;Bankloan1IntroductionRealestateindustryisahigh-riskindustry,realestatefinanceinsupportoftherapiddevelopmentoftherealestateindustryatthesametime,inevitablybearstheriskofrealestateindustry.Financeasthemainsuppliersofrealestatefunds,onceappear,thefinancialcrisis,thefinancialsectorfundsproblems,willinfluencethedevelopmentoftherealestateindustry.Multipliereffectintherealestateindustry,realestateloansinbankportfoliosaccordinglytriggeramultipliereffect,andthiswillleadtoincreaseofbank'srisk.Whenrealestatepricescontinuetofall,realestatemortgageguaranteefoundationwillbeweakened,andrealestatefinancialrisksiscumulative,oncetheoutbreak,willexpandrapidly,alargeareaofthefinancialturmoil.Themaincharacteristicofthispaperliesintheintegrateduseofknowledgeoffinance,statistics,theoreticalanalysisandempiricalanalysis,qualitativeanalysiswithquantitativeanalysis,generalanalysisandspecificanalysisthewayofcombininganalysisofrealestatefinancialrisks,thecommercialbankloanbalancerelationsempiricaltestwiththetheoryofrealestateprices,realestatepricesisnotcontenttogetbankloansisgrangercausetestresults,butsetupanewvariable,therealestatepriceandthebankloanandtherelationshipbetweenaspecificindexofgrangercausalitytestagain.Finallyonthebasisoftestresults,intheaspectofreadingalargenumberofrelevantliteraturesbasis,putforwardadviceonhowtopreventtherealestatefinancialrisksincommercialbank.2Literaturereview2.1TheoryresearchDavis(2008)fromtheperspectiveoftheborrowerandthebankdemonstratestherealestatepriceswillaffectthebankcredit.Theauthorsthinkthatrealestatepricechangesaffecttheborrower'sexpectationsoftheirwealth,willaffecttheirconsumptionplans,andfurtheraffecttheircreditdemand.Andfromtheperspectiveofthebank,thebanklendingforrealestatedevelopmentloansandrealestateassetsmortgageisoneofthemostinallofitsloanbusinesspro-cyclicalcharacteristics,themostvolatileassets.Herring(2009)basedontheinternationalperspective,thestudyontherelationshipbetweentherealestatebubbleandthebankingcrisis,thecreditmarketmodelwasconstructed,causedtherealestatebubbleispointedoutthatthefocusofbankloans,realestatebubblewouldbelikelytocauseabankingcrisis.Gale(2009)proposedtheassetpricemodelbasedoncreditexpansion,thinktheassetsonthebasisofvalueisformedbytheinvestorstouseitsownfundsassetprices,wheninvestorsuseborrowedmoneytoinvest,asinvestorstoborrowmoneyonlyforlimitedliability,theyappeartobemorepreferenceforriskassets,sowillcontinuetopushupassetprices.Inthetheory,thebankloanistheimportantreasonfortheformationofassetbubbles.Krug(2010)throughthestudy,almostalloftherealestatebubbleiscausedbythebankfinancing.Collins(2010)pointedoutthatwhenrealestateprices,thebankwaswillingtoeaselendingconditionsandprovidemorerealestateloans,proposedalinkontherealestateindustryandeconomiccycleoftransmissionmechanism,andstressedthatinthecaseofweakregulationandforeigncapitalinflows,theroleofthemechanismmaybeenlarged.2.2EmpiricalresearchCoolly(2012)ofsoutheastAsiafinancialcrisisinrealestatepricesandGDPpercapita,loanbalancevectorautoregressionanalysis,pointsoutthatrealestatepriceswillriseinsixquartersofloansincrease.Hofmann(2013)of20majorindustrializedcountriesrealestatepricesandGDP,therelationshipbetweeninterestratesandlendingwasstudied,andfoundthatthe20countriesinthecountrycanrefusetounder10%significancelevelrealestatepricesandGDPandbankloansnullhypothesisdoesnotexistco-integrationrelationship,andfurtherpointsoutthatthechangesintherealestatepricecyclewillleadtothechangeofthebankcreditcycleforalongtime.Davis(2010),selectedsampledataof17countriesoncommercialrealestatepricesandtherelationshipbetweenthebanklendinghascarriedontheempiricalanalysis,itisconcludedthatrealestatepriceswillleadtotheconclusionofbankcreditexpansion.3CommercialBanksandrealestatefinancialrisks3.1RealestatefinanceManyscholarshavedonehowtodefinetheconnotationandextensionoftherealestatefinancialaspectsofthediscussionandresearch.Iswidelyrecognized,realestatefinancegeneralizedreferstoallandhousingdevelopment,construction,trade,consumptionandmanagementoffinancingactivitiesrelatedtotheeconomicactivityandthenarrowsenseofrealestatefinancereferstothenonprofithousingagenciesorconsumerwiththeresidentsofhousingdevelopment,construction,trade,consumptionandmanagementandothereconomicactivitiesrelatedtothefinancingactivities.Inthisstudy,tendtousethebroadscopeofrealestatefinance,andrealestatefinanceisinrealestatedevelopment,construction,trade,consumptionandmanagementintheprocessofaseriesofthefloorboardofthefinancialactivities,includingthroughcurrencycirculationandcreditchannelofmonetaryfinancing,financingandotherrelatedfinancialactivities.Thebasicfunctionofrealestatefinanceisbyusingavarietyoffinancialinstrumentsandtoolsfortherealestateindustryandraisemoney,forthedevelopmentoftherealestateindustry,circulationandconsumptiontoprovidefinancialsupport,toensurethesmoothprogressoftherealestatedevelopmentactivities.Accordingtothetypesofbusinesscanputtherealestatefinanceisdividedintofivecategories,absorptionoftherealestateindustry,housingsavingsdepositandlendingforrealestate,realestateinvestmentpawn,trust,insurance,currencysettlementandrealestateagentsinsecuritiesofferings.Accordingtotheserviceobjectcanbetherealestatefinanceisdividedintotwocategories,fortherealestateindustryofrealestatedevelopment,construction,trade,consumptionandmanagementactivitiessuchastheserviceof"realestatefinancial"andfortheresidentsoftheresidentialbuilding,purchasing,maintenance,anddecorationandconsumptionactivitiessuchasservice"housingfinance".Realestatefinanceisthegreatcombinationoffinancialactivityandtherealestateindustry.Firstofall,therealestatefinancetoasymmetric,theborrowerusuallyinproportiontopayasmallamountofdownpaymentfortherighttousehouse,thenborrowtherestofthemoneyfromfinancialinstitutions,amortization:secondly,therealestateloanrepaymentsguaranteed,iftheborrowercan'ttimelypayment,sothemortgagehouses,carsandotherpropertywillbeingreclaimedbylenders,thenrealizedbythemortgagedpropertytooffsetloanlosses.3.2SummariesofrealestatefinancialrisksRealestatefinanceriskreferstothefinancialinstitutions,realestatefinancebusiness,duetothedecision-makingerrors,poormanagementorthechangeintheobjectiveenvironmentcausesthereturnonassets,orthepossibilityofcreditlosses.Generalrealestatefinancialriskreferstoasystemofrealestatefinancefacesalltherisk,notjustreferstoafinancialinstitutionoraprojectrisks.Typicalrealestaterisk,theriskofcommercialBanksarefacing,asintherealestatefinancebusinesswillalsoencounter,onlyformdifferent,hereisatypicalrealestatefinancialrisks,mainlyincludes:3.2.1InterestrateriskIntherealestatefinancebusiness,thecommercialbankisthemainbasisriskandoptionrisk.BasisriskreferstothereprisingofassetsandliabilitiesoftimeevenifBanksarethesame,butaslongasthedepositinterestrateandloaninterestrateadjustmentisnotcompletelyconsistent,Bankswillfacetherisk.Thedecisionisnotcommercialbankdepositandlendingrates,islikelytoseethecentralbankinordertoachievecontroltargetandmaketheregulationrangeofthetwoisnotconsistent,theprofitspacemaybecompressed,commercialBanksfacealoss;Optionreferstotheriskduetovariousreasonsinadvanceiftheborrowerrepaythehousingloanprincipalandinterestofrisk.Ifthecentralbankcutinterestratescontinuously,rationalandwillhavetheabilityofborrowerstorepaytheoutstandingloanlentalowerinterestrateofloan,thedefaultbehaviorwillmakethecommercialbankprofitlosses.3.2.2TheriskofdefaultAccordingtothereasons,itcanbedividedintomoralcreditriskandtheriskofcreditmoralcreditrisk.Inrealestatefinancebusiness,themoralityriskreferstotheborrowerhastheabilitytoclearlyreimbursement,butduetointerest,maliciousordeferredpaymentisdirectlytostoppayingandbringstothecommercialbankcreditrisk.Themoralhazardreferstotheborrowerundertheinfluenceofthefactorsofforcemajeureunabletocompletethecreditriskcausedbypayment.Amongthem,themoralityiscancontrolandmanagecreditrisk,thecurrentpromotingcreditreportingsystemisoneofthepreventivemeasures.Accordingtotheobjectcanbedividedintodevelopersdefaultriskandpersonalriskofdefault.3.2.3SystemicriskAlsoitiscalledundiversifiablerisk,policyrisk,mainlyinvolvedinthebusinessofrealestatefinanceeconomiccyclicalfluctuationrisk,purchasingpowerrisk,etc.Inordertopreventahousingbubbleaftertheinternationalfinancialcrisis,countriesenactedsomeinhibitionoftherealestatemarketeconomicpoliciesandregulations,whichhaveanimpactontherealestatemarket,indirectaffectthedevelopmentofrealestatefinancebusinessandinnovation,sothepolicyriskcancausealosstocommercialBanks.Economiccyclefluctuationoneconomicblowishuge,andcannotbespreadout,whentheeconomyisinalow,therealestatemarketarenotimmunetothepossibilityofconsiderablecommercialbanklosses.Purchasingpowerrisk,alsoknownasinflation,changesinthepricelevelleadstotherealburdenofborrowersandlendersandrealearningsuncertainty,thepossibilityofactuallossofthecommercialBanks.譯文:房地產市場風險防范研究摘要2007年4月2日，以美國第二大次級抵押貸款公司新世紀金融公司申請破產保護為標志，美國次貸危機爆發(fā)。2008年9月巧日，以美國第四大投資銀行雷曼兄弟公司申請破產保護為標志，美國次貸危機惡化。隨著次貸危機的進一步發(fā)展，金融行業(yè)一個行業(yè)的危機開始向多種實體經濟蔓延，零售業(yè)、汽車業(yè)、餐飲業(yè)等多個領域出現(xiàn)銷售下降、需求萎縮的狀況。不僅如此，受次貸危機的影響，美國國內失業(yè)率持續(xù)攀升，美元持續(xù)貶值，股指持續(xù)下滑，房地產價格持續(xù)下跌，消費者信心指數持續(xù)走低，經濟前景堪憂。房地產業(yè)的各種矛盾也不斷凸顯出來，房地產開發(fā)項目過度依賴銀行資金，把風險全部轉移給商業(yè)銀行，使商業(yè)銀行面對巨大的房地產金融風險，就是其中的一個突出矛盾。這一風險一旦爆發(fā)，對整個體系將造成巨大威脅。因此，研究如何防范房地產金融風險具有重大的理論和現(xiàn)實意義。關鍵詞：房地產；金融風險；銀行貸款1引言房地產業(yè)是一個高風險的行業(yè)，房地產金融在支撐房地產業(yè)迅速發(fā)展的同時，不可避免地承擔了房地產業(yè)的高風險。金融業(yè)作為房地產資金的主要供給方，一旦出現(xiàn)金融危機，金融業(yè)的資金發(fā)生問題，就會影響房地產業(yè)的發(fā)展。房地產業(yè)的乘數效應，使得房地產貸款也相應地在銀行的資產組合中引發(fā)乘數效應，這將導致銀行風險的加大。當房地產價格持續(xù)下跌，房地產抵押貸款的擔?；A就會被削弱，而房地產金融風險具有累積性，一旦爆發(fā)，便會迅速擴大，出現(xiàn)大面積的金融風波。本文的主要特點在于綜合運用金融學、統(tǒng)計學知識，采取理論分析和實證分析、定性分析與定量分析、一般分析與特殊分析相結合的方式，對房地產金融風險進行分析，對商業(yè)銀行貸款余額與房地產價格的理論關系進行實證檢驗，并不滿足于得到的銀行貸款是房地產價格格蘭杰原因的檢驗結果，而是設立新的變量，對房地產價格與銀行貸款某一具體指標的關系進行再一次的格蘭杰因果關系檢驗。最后在檢驗結果的基礎之上，在閱讀大量相關方面文獻基礎之上，提出商業(yè)銀行如何防范房地產金融風險的建議。2文獻綜述2.1理論研究方面Davis(2008)從借款人和銀行的角度出發(fā)，論證了房地產價格會影響銀行的信貸規(guī)模。作者認為房地產價格的變化影響借款人對自己財富的預期，進而影響他們的消費計劃，進一步影響他們的信貸需求。而從銀行的角度出發(fā)，銀行發(fā)放的房地產開發(fā)貸款和房地產資產抵押貸款是其所有貸款業(yè)務中最具有“順周期”特質、最容易波動的資產。Herring(2009)立足國際視角，對房地產泡沫和銀行危機的關系進行研究，構建了信貸市場模型，指出銀行的集中貸款導致了房地產泡沫，房地產泡沫將可能引發(fā)銀行危機。Gale(2009)提出基于信貸擴張的資產價格模型，認為資產的基礎價值是投資者運用自有資金進行投資所形成的資產價格，而當投資者運用借貸資金進行投資時，由于投資者對借貸資金只承擔有限責任，他們更多地表現(xiàn)出對風險資產的偏好，因此會不斷推高資產的價格。在該理論中，銀行貸款是形成資產泡沫的重要原因。Krug(2010)經過研究指出，幾乎所有的房地產泡沫都是由銀行融資引起的。Collins(2010)指出當房地產價格上漲時，銀行愿意放松貸款條件并提供更多的房地產貸款，提出了一個使房地產業(yè)和經濟周期聯(lián)系起來的傳播機制，并強調在監(jiān)管薄弱和外資流入的情況下，該機制的作用可能放大。2.2實證研究方面Coolly(2012)對東南亞金融危機爆發(fā)國家房地產價格與人均GDP、貸款余額進行了向量自回歸分析，指出房地產價格將在貸款發(fā)放增加的6個季度內上漲。Hofmann(2013)對20個主要工業(yè)化國家的房地產價格與GDP、利率和貸款量的關系進行了研究，發(fā)現(xiàn)20個國家中有巧個國家可以在10%的顯著性水平下拒絕房地產價格與GDP和銀行貸款不存在協(xié)整關系的零假設，并進一步指出，房地產價格周期的變化在長期會導致銀行信貸周期的變化。Davis(2010)選用17個國家的樣本數據，對商用房地產價格和銀行貸款之間的關系進行了實證分析，得出房地產價格的上漲會導致銀行信貸擴張的結論。3商業(yè)銀行與房地產金融風險3.1房地產金融許多學者都做過如何界定房地產金融的內涵及外延方面的探討和研究。目前廣為認可的說法是，廣義的房地產金融是指所有與住房的開發(fā)、建設、交易、消費和經營等經濟活動有關的資金融通活動，而狹義的房地產金融是指與居民或消費性的非營利住房機構的住房開發(fā)、建設、交易、消費和經營等經濟活動有關的資金融通活動。在本文的研究中，傾向于使用房地產金融的廣義范圍，暨房地產金融是對房地產開發(fā)、建設、交易、消費和經