房地產(chǎn)市場風(fēng)險(xiǎn)中英文對照外文翻譯文獻(xiàn)

中英文對照外文翻譯(文檔含英文原文和中文翻譯)原文:TheresearchofriskpreventioninrealestatemarketAbstractOnApril2,2007,thesecondlargestintheUnitedStatessubprimemortgagecompanynewcenturyfinancialfiledforbankruptcyprotectiontosign,theUSsubprimemortgagecrisis.InSeptember2008,America'sfourth-largestinvestmentbankLehmanbrothersfiledforbankruptcyprotectionforlogo,America'ssubprimecrisiscouldworsen.Thefinancialindustry,withthefurtherdevelopmentofthesubprimecrisis,thecrisisofanindustrybegantospreadtothevarietyoftherealeconomy,retail,autoindustry,cateringindustry,andotherfieldsofsalesdecline,shrinkingdemandsituation.Notonlythat,influencedbythesubprimecrisis,thedomesticunemploymentrising,continuetodollardepreciation,thestockindexcontinuestodecline,realestatepricescontinuetofall,fallingconsumerconfidenceindex,economicprospectsaregrim.Contradictionsintherealestateindustryhasbeenhighlighted,realestatedevelopmentprojectisoverlydependentonbankcapital,transferalltherisktocommercialBanks,thecommercialBanksfacehugerealestatefinancialrisks,isoneoftheprominentcontradictions.Thisriskoncetheoutbreak,posesagreatthreattotheentiresystemwillbe.Therefore,studyhowtopreventtherealestatefinancialriskshasthesignificanttheoryandrealisticsignificance.Keywords:Realestate;Financialrisk;Bankloan1IntroductionRealestateindustryisahigh-riskindustry,realestatefinanceinsupportoftherapiddevelopmentoftherealestateindustryatthesametime,inevitablybearstheriskofrealestateindustry.Financeasthemainsuppliersofrealestatefunds,onceappear,thefinancialcrisis,thefinancialsectorfundsproblems,willinfluencethedevelopmentoftherealestateindustry.Multipliereffectintherealestateindustry,realestateloansinbankportfoliosaccordinglytriggeramultipliereffect,andthiswillleadtoincreaseofbank'srisk.Whenrealestatepricescontinuetofall,realestatemortgageguaranteefoundationwillbeweakened,andrealestatefinancialrisksiscumulative,oncetheoutbreak,willexpandrapidly,alargeareaofthefinancialturmoil.Themaincharacteristicofthispaperliesintheintegrateduseofknowledgeoffinance,statistics,theoreticalanalysisandempiricalanalysis,qualitativeanalysiswithquantitativeanalysis,generalanalysisandspecificanalysisthewayofcombininganalysisofrealestatefinancialrisks,thecommercialbankloanbalancerelationsempiricaltestwiththetheoryofrealestateprices,realestatepricesisnotcontenttogetbankloansisgrangercausetestresults,butsetupanewvariable,therealestatepriceandthebankloanandtherelationshipbetweenaspecificindexofgrangercausalitytestagain.Finallyonthebasisoftestresults,intheaspectofreadingalargenumberofrelevantliteraturesbasis,putforwardadviceonhowtopreventtherealestatefinancialrisksincommercialbank.2Literaturereview2.1TheoryresearchDavis(2008)fromtheperspectiveoftheborrowerandthebankdemonstratestherealestatepriceswillaffectthebankcredit.Theauthorsthinkthatrealestatepricechangesaffecttheborrower'sexpectationsoftheirwealth,willaffecttheirconsumptionplans,andfurtheraffecttheircreditdemand.Andfromtheperspectiveofthebank,thebanklendingforrealestatedevelopmentloansandrealestateassetsmortgageisoneofthemostinallofitsloanbusinesspro-cyclicalcharacteristics,themostvolatileassets.Herring(2009)basedontheinternationalperspective,thestudyontherelationshipbetweentherealestatebubbleandthebankingcrisis,thecreditmarketmodelwasconstructed,causedtherealestatebubbleispointedoutthatthefocusofbankloans,realestatebubblewouldbelikelytocauseabankingcrisis.Gale(2009)proposedtheassetpricemodelbasedoncreditexpansion,thinktheassetsonthebasisofvalueisformedbytheinvestorstouseitsownfundsassetprices,wheninvestorsuseborrowedmoneytoinvest,asinvestorstoborrowmoneyonlyforlimitedliability,theyappeartobemorepreferenceforriskassets,sowillcontinuetopushupassetprices.Inthetheory,thebankloanistheimportantreasonfortheformationofassetbubbles.Krug(2010)throughthestudy,almostalloftherealestatebubbleiscausedbythebankfinancing.Collins(2010)pointedoutthatwhenrealestateprices,thebankwaswillingtoeaselendingconditionsandprovidemorerealestateloans,proposedalinkontherealestateindustryandeconomiccycleoftransmissionmechanism,andstressedthatinthecaseofweakregulationandforeigncapitalinflows,theroleofthemechanismmaybeenlarged.2.2EmpiricalresearchCoolly(2012)ofsoutheastAsiafinancialcrisisinrealestatepricesandGDPpercapita,loanbalancevectorautoregressionanalysis,pointsoutthatrealestatepriceswillriseinsixquartersofloansincrease.Hofmann(2013)of20majorindustrializedcountriesrealestatepricesandGDP,therelationshipbetweeninterestratesandlendingwasstudied,andfoundthatthe20countriesinthecountrycanrefusetounder10%significancelevelrealestatepricesandGDPandbankloansnullhypothesisdoesnotexistco-integrationrelationship,andfurtherpointsoutthatthechangesintherealestatepricecyclewillleadtothechangeofthebankcreditcycleforalongtime.Davis(2010),selectedsampledataof17countriesoncommercialrealestatepricesandtherelationshipbetweenthebanklendinghascarriedontheempiricalanalysis,itisconcludedthatrealestatepriceswillleadtotheconclusionofbankcreditexpansion.3CommercialBanksandrealestatefinancialrisks3.1RealestatefinanceManyscholarshavedonehowtodefinetheconnotationandextensionoftherealestatefinancialaspectsofthediscussionandresearch.Iswidelyrecognized,realestatefinancegeneralizedreferstoallandhousingdevelopment,construction,trade,consumptionandmanagementoffinancingactivitiesrelatedtotheeconomicactivityandthenarrowsenseofrealestatefinancereferstothenonprofithousingagenciesorconsumerwiththeresidentsofhousingdevelopment,construction,trade,consumptionandmanagementandothereconomicactivitiesrelatedtothefinancingactivities.Inthisstudy,tendtousethebroadscopeofrealestatefinance,andrealestatefinanceisinrealestatedevelopment,construction,trade,consumptionandmanagementintheprocessofaseriesofthefloorboardofthefinancialactivities,includingthroughcurrencycirculationandcreditchannelofmonetaryfinancing,financingandotherrelatedfinancialactivities.Thebasicfunctionofrealestatefinanceisbyusingavarietyoffinancialinstrumentsandtoolsfortherealestateindustryandraisemoney,forthedevelopmentoftherealestateindustry,circulationandconsumptiontoprovidefinancialsupport,toensurethesmoothprogressoftherealestatedevelopmentactivities.Accordingtothetypesofbusinesscanputtherealestatefinanceisdividedintofivecategories,absorptionoftherealestateindustry,housingsavingsdepositandlendingforrealestate,realestateinvestmentpawn,trust,insurance,currencysettlementandrealestateagentsinsecuritiesofferings.Accordingtotheserviceobjectcanbetherealestatefinanceisdividedintotwocategories,fortherealestateindustryofrealestatedevelopment,construction,trade,consumptionandmanagementactivitiessuchastheserviceof"realestatefinancial"andfortheresidentsoftheresidentialbuilding,purchasing,maintenance,anddecorationandconsumptionactivitiessuchasservice"housingfinance".Realestatefinanceisthegreatcombinationoffinancialactivityandtherealestateindustry.Firstofall,therealestatefinancetoasymmetric,theborrowerusuallyinproportiontopayasmallamountofdownpaymentfortherighttousehouse,thenborrowtherestofthemoneyfromfinancialinstitutions,amortization:secondly,therealestateloanrepaymentsguaranteed,iftheborrowercan'ttimelypayment,sothemortgagehouses,carsandotherpropertywillbeingreclaimedbylenders,thenrealizedbythemortgagedpropertytooffsetloanlosses.3.2SummariesofrealestatefinancialrisksRealestatefinanceriskreferstothefinancialinstitutions,realestatefinancebusiness,duetothedecision-makingerrors,poormanagementorthechangeintheobjectiveenvironmentcausesthereturnonassets,orthepossibilityofcreditlosses.Generalrealestatefinancialriskreferstoasystemofrealestatefinancefacesalltherisk,notjustreferstoafinancialinstitutionoraprojectrisks.Typicalrealestaterisk,theriskofcommercialBanksarefacing,asintherealestatefinancebusinesswillalsoencounter,onlyformdifferent,hereisatypicalrealestatefinancialrisks,mainlyincludes:3.2.1InterestrateriskIntherealestatefinancebusiness,thecommercialbankisthemainbasisriskandoptionrisk.BasisriskreferstothereprisingofassetsandliabilitiesoftimeevenifBanksarethesame,butaslongasthedepositinterestrateandloaninterestrateadjustmentisnotcompletelyconsistent,Bankswillfacetherisk.Thedecisionisnotcommercialbankdepositandlendingrates,islikelytoseethecentralbankinordertoachievecontroltargetandmaketheregulationrangeofthetwoisnotconsistent,theprofitspacemaybecompressed,commercialBanksfacealoss;Optionreferstotheriskduetovariousreasonsinadvanceiftheborrowerrepaythehousingloanprincipalandinterestofrisk.Ifthecentralbankcutinterestratescontinuously,rationalandwillhavetheabilityofborrowerstorepaytheoutstandingloanlentalowerinterestrateofloan,thedefaultbehaviorwillmakethecommercialbankprofitlosses.3.2.2TheriskofdefaultAccordingtothereasons,itcanbedividedintomoralcreditriskandtheriskofcreditmoralcreditrisk.Inrealestatefinancebusiness,themoralityriskreferstotheborrowerhastheabilitytoclearlyreimbursement,butduetointerest,maliciousordeferredpaymentisdirectlytostoppayingandbringstothecommercialbankcreditrisk.Themoralhazardreferstotheborrowerundertheinfluenceofthefactorsofforcemajeureunabletocompletethecreditriskcausedbypayment.Amongthem,themoralityiscancontrolandmanagecreditrisk,thecurrentpromotingcreditreportingsystemisoneofthepreventivemeasures.Accordingtotheobjectcanbedividedintodevelopersdefaultriskandpersonalriskofdefault.3.2.3SystemicriskAlsoitiscalledundiversifiablerisk,policyrisk,mainlyinvolvedinthebusinessofrealestatefinanceeconomiccyclicalfluctuationrisk,purchasingpowerrisk,etc.Inordertopreventahousingbubbleaftertheinternationalfinancialcrisis,countriesenactedsomeinhibitionoftherealestatemarketeconomicpoliciesandregulations,whichhaveanimpactontherealestatemarket,indirectaffectthedevelopmentofrealestatefinancebusinessandinnovation,sothepolicyriskcancausealosstocommercialBanks.Economiccyclefluctuationoneconomicblowishuge,andcannotbespreadout,whentheeconomyisinalow,therealestatemarketarenotimmunetothepossibilityofconsiderablecommercialbanklosses.Purchasingpowerrisk,alsoknownasinflation,changesinthepricelevelleadstotherealburdenofborrowersandlendersandrealearningsuncertainty,thepossibilityofactuallossofthecommercialBanks.譯文:房地產(chǎn)市場風(fēng)險(xiǎn)防范研究摘要2007年4月2日，以美國第二大次級抵押貸款公司新世紀(jì)金融公司申請破產(chǎn)保護(hù)為標(biāo)志，美國次貸危機(jī)爆發(fā)。2008年9月巧日，以美國第四大投資銀行雷曼兄弟公司申請破產(chǎn)保護(hù)為標(biāo)志，美國次貸危機(jī)惡化。隨著次貸危機(jī)的進(jìn)一步發(fā)展，金融行業(yè)一個(gè)行業(yè)的危機(jī)開始向多種實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)蔓延，零售業(yè)、汽車業(yè)、餐飲業(yè)等多個(gè)領(lǐng)域出現(xiàn)銷售下降、需求萎縮的狀況。不僅如此，受次貸危機(jī)的影響，美國國內(nèi)失業(yè)率持續(xù)攀升，美元持續(xù)貶值，股指持續(xù)下滑，房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格持續(xù)下跌，消費(fèi)者信心指數(shù)持續(xù)走低，經(jīng)濟(jì)前景堪憂。房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的各種矛盾也不斷凸顯出來，房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)項(xiàng)目過度依賴銀行資金，把風(fēng)險(xiǎn)全部轉(zhuǎn)移給商業(yè)銀行，使商業(yè)銀行面對巨大的房地產(chǎn)金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，就是其中的一個(gè)突出矛盾。這一風(fēng)險(xiǎn)一旦爆發(fā)，對整個(gè)體系將造成巨大威脅。因此，研究如何防范房地產(chǎn)金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)具有重大的理論和現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。關(guān)鍵詞：房地產(chǎn)；金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)；銀行貸款1引言房地產(chǎn)業(yè)是一個(gè)高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的行業(yè)，房地產(chǎn)金融在支撐房地產(chǎn)業(yè)迅速發(fā)展的同時(shí)，不可避免地承擔(dān)了房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。金融業(yè)作為房地產(chǎn)資金的主要供給方，一旦出現(xiàn)金融危機(jī)，金融業(yè)的資金發(fā)生問題，就會影響房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展。房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的乘數(shù)效應(yīng)，使得房地產(chǎn)貸款也相應(yīng)地在銀行的資產(chǎn)組合中引發(fā)乘數(shù)效應(yīng)，這將導(dǎo)致銀行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的加大。當(dāng)房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格持續(xù)下跌，房地產(chǎn)抵押貸款的擔(dān)保基礎(chǔ)就會被削弱，而房地產(chǎn)金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)具有累積性，一旦爆發(fā)，便會迅速擴(kuò)大，出現(xiàn)大面積的金融風(fēng)波。本文的主要特點(diǎn)在于綜合運(yùn)用金融學(xué)、統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)知識，采取理論分析和實(shí)證分析、定性分析與定量分析、一般分析與特殊分析相結(jié)合的方式，對房地產(chǎn)金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行分析，對商業(yè)銀行貸款余額與房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格的理論關(guān)系進(jìn)行實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)，并不滿足于得到的銀行貸款是房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格格蘭杰原因的檢驗(yàn)結(jié)果，而是設(shè)立新的變量，對房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格與銀行貸款某一具體指標(biāo)的關(guān)系進(jìn)行再一次的格蘭杰因果關(guān)系檢驗(yàn)。最后在檢驗(yàn)結(jié)果的基礎(chǔ)之上，在閱讀大量相關(guān)方面文獻(xiàn)基礎(chǔ)之上，提出商業(yè)銀行如何防范房地產(chǎn)金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的建議。2文獻(xiàn)綜述2.1理論研究方面Davis(2008)從借款人和銀行的角度出發(fā)，論證了房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格會影響銀行的信貸規(guī)模。作者認(rèn)為房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格的變化影響借款人對自己財(cái)富的預(yù)期，進(jìn)而影響他們的消費(fèi)計(jì)劃，進(jìn)一步影響他們的信貸需求。而從銀行的角度出發(fā)，銀行發(fā)放的房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)貸款和房地產(chǎn)資產(chǎn)抵押貸款是其所有貸款業(yè)務(wù)中最具有“順周期”特質(zhì)、最容易波動(dòng)的資產(chǎn)。Herring(2009)立足國際視角，對房地產(chǎn)泡沫和銀行危機(jī)的關(guān)系進(jìn)行研究，構(gòu)建了信貸市場模型，指出銀行的集中貸款導(dǎo)致了房地產(chǎn)泡沫，房地產(chǎn)泡沫將可能引發(fā)銀行危機(jī)。Gale(2009)提出基于信貸擴(kuò)張的資產(chǎn)價(jià)格模型，認(rèn)為資產(chǎn)的基礎(chǔ)價(jià)值是投資者運(yùn)用自有資金進(jìn)行投資所形成的資產(chǎn)價(jià)格，而當(dāng)投資者運(yùn)用借貸資金進(jìn)行投資時(shí)，由于投資者對借貸資金只承擔(dān)有限責(zé)任，他們更多地表現(xiàn)出對風(fēng)險(xiǎn)資產(chǎn)的偏好，因此會不斷推高資產(chǎn)的價(jià)格。在該理論中，銀行貸款是形成資產(chǎn)泡沫的重要原因。Krug(2010)經(jīng)過研究指出，幾乎所有的房地產(chǎn)泡沫都是由銀行融資引起的。Collins(2010)指出當(dāng)房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格上漲時(shí)，銀行愿意放松貸款條件并提供更多的房地產(chǎn)貸款，提出了一個(gè)使房地產(chǎn)業(yè)和經(jīng)濟(jì)周期聯(lián)系起來的傳播機(jī)制，并強(qiáng)調(diào)在監(jiān)管薄弱和外資流入的情況下，該機(jī)制的作用可能放大。2.2實(shí)證研究方面Coolly(2012)對東南亞金融危機(jī)爆發(fā)國家房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格與人均GDP、貸款余額進(jìn)行了向量自回歸分析，指出房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格將在貸款發(fā)放增加的6個(gè)季度內(nèi)上漲。Hofmann(2013)對20個(gè)主要工業(yè)化國家的房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格與GDP、利率和貸款量的關(guān)系進(jìn)行了研究，發(fā)現(xiàn)20個(gè)國家中有巧個(gè)國家可以在10%的顯著性水平下拒絕房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格與GDP和銀行貸款不存在協(xié)整關(guān)系的零假設(shè)，并進(jìn)一步指出，房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格周期的變化在長期會導(dǎo)致銀行信貸周期的變化。Davis(2010)選用17個(gè)國家的樣本數(shù)據(jù)，對商用房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格和銀行貸款之間的關(guān)系進(jìn)行了實(shí)證分析，得出房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格的上漲會導(dǎo)致銀行信貸擴(kuò)張的結(jié)論。3商業(yè)銀行與房地產(chǎn)金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)3.1房地產(chǎn)金融許多學(xué)者都做過如何界定房地產(chǎn)金融的內(nèi)涵及外延方面的探討和研究。目前廣為認(rèn)可的說法是，廣義的房地產(chǎn)金融是指所有與住房的開發(fā)、建設(shè)、交易、消費(fèi)和經(jīng)營等經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)有關(guān)的資金融通活動(dòng)，而狹義的房地產(chǎn)金融是指與居民或消費(fèi)性的非營利住房機(jī)構(gòu)的住房開發(fā)、建設(shè)、交易、消費(fèi)和經(jīng)營等經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)有關(guān)的資金融通活動(dòng)。在本文的研究中，傾向于使用房地產(chǎn)金融的廣義范圍，暨房地產(chǎn)金融是對房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)、建設(shè)、交易、消費(fèi)和經(jīng)