OPEC+石油市場月度報告（2023年9月）-英

Organization

of

the

Petroleum

Exporting

Countries12September2023Feature

article:A

review

of

world

economic

developmentsOilmarkethighlights

iiiFeaturearticleCrudeoilpricemovementsCommoditymarketsv17Worldeconomy

10Worldoildemand

26Worldoilsupply

36Productmarketsandrefineryoperations

51Tanker

market

57Crudeandrefinedproductstrade

60Commercialstockmovements

66Balanceofsupplyanddemand

71DisclaimerThe

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limitation,

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mediumwhatsoever;

translate,

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in

a

data

base,

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changes,

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adaptations,

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sound–video

recording,

audio–visual

screenplaysand

electronic

processing

of

any

kind

and

nature

whatsoever.Chairman

of

the

Editorial

BoardHEHaitham

AlGhaisSecretary

GeneralEditor-in-ChiefDr.AyedS.

Al-QahtaniDirector,ResearchDivisionemail:

aalqahtani(at)EditorBehrooz

BaikalizadehHead,

Petroleum

StudiesDepartmentemail:

bbaikalizadeh(at)ContributorsCrude

Oil

Price

MovementsYacineSariahmedSeniorOilPriceAnalyst,PSDFinancialAnalyst,PSDemail:

ysariahmed(at)email:

aedjangmemba(at)email:

jspitzy(at)CommodityMarketsAngelEdjangMembaWorld

EconomyDr.JoergSpitzySeniorResearchAnalyst,PSDOilDemandAnalyst,PSDOilSupply

Analyst,

PSDWorld

Oil

DemandDr.SulaimanSaademail:

ssaad(at)World

Oil

SupplyDr.AliAkbarDehghanemail:

adehghan(at)email:

tndamba(at)email:

dlinton(at)email:

dlinton(at)email:

ayahyai(at)Product

Markets

and

Refinery

OperationsTonaNdambaChief

Refinery

&Products

Analyst,

PSDTanker

MarketsDouglasLintonSeniorResearchSpecialist,PSDCrude

and

Refined

Products

TradeDouglasLintonSeniorResearchSpecialist,PSDStock

MovementsDr.AzizYahyaiSeniorResearchAnalyst,PSDTechnical

TeamDr.AsmaaYaseenMasudbek

NarzibekovVivecaHamederSenior

Modelling

&

Forecasting

Analyst,

PSD

email:

ayaseen(at)SeniorResearchAnalyst,PSDResearchSpecialist,PSDemail:

mnarzibekov(at)email:

vhameder(at)Statistical

ServicesHuda

Almwasawy,

Head,

Data

Services

Department;

Mhammed

Mouraia,

Statistical

Systems

Coordinator;PantelisChristodoulides

(World

Oil

Demand,

Stock

Movements);

Klaus

Stoeger

(World

Oil

Supply);MohammadSattar

(Crude

Oil

Price

Movements,

Crude

and

Refined

Products

Trade);

MihniMihnev

(ProductMarkets

and

Refinery

Operations);

JustinasPelenis

(World

Economy);

Mansi

Ghodsi

(Commodity

Markets),Hana

Elbadri(TankerMarket)Editing

and

DesignHasan

AlHamadi,

Head,

Administration

and

IT

Services

Department,

In-Charge

of

PR

&

Information

Department;James

Griffin;

Maureen

MacNeill;

ScottLaury;

Matthew

Quinn;

Richard

Murphy;

Boris

Kudashev;

Carola

Bayer;AndreaBirnbach;TaraStarnegg;Hataichanok

LeimlehnerOPEC

MonthlyOilMarketReport–September

2023iiiOPEC

MonthlyOilMarketReport–September

2023OilMarketHighlightsOil

Market

HighlightsCrude

Oil

Price

MovementsIn

August,

the

OPEC

Reference

Basket

(ORB)

increased

by

$6.27,

or

7.7%,

m-o-m

to

average

of

$87.33/b.The

ICEBrent

front-monthcontract

roseby

$4.94,

or6.2%,

m-o-mto

average$85.10/b,

andtheNYMEX

WTIfront-month

contract

increased

by

$5.29,

or

7.0%,

m-o-m

to

average

$81.32/b.

The

DME

Oman

front-monthcontract

rose

by$5.30,or

6.5%,

m-o-m

tosettle

at

$86.46/b.Thefront-monthICE

Brent/NYMEXWTI

spreadnarrowed

by

35￠m-o-m

toaverage$3.78/b.Thefutures

forwardcurves

of

ICE

Brent,

NYMEX

WTI

and

DMEOman

steepened

further

onthe

improving

outlook

for

oil

market

fundamentals.

Atthe

same

time,

hedge

fundsand

othermoney

managerscuttheirtotalnet

longpositions

inICEBrent

andNYMEX

WTI.World

EconomyWorld

economic

growth

forecast

remains

unchanged

at

2.7%

for

2023

and

at

2.6%

for

2024.

US

economicgrowth

forecast

remains

at

1.8%

for

2023

and

0.7%

for

2024.

Similarly,

the

Euro-zone

economic

growthforecast

for

2023

and

2024

remains

at

0.6%

and

0.8%,

respectively.

Japan’s

economic

growth

forecast

isrevised

up

to

stand

at

1.5%,

while

forecast

growth

for

2024

is

unchanged

at

1.0%.

China’s

2023

economicgrowth

forecast

remains

at

5.2%,

with

2024

slightly

lower

at

4.8%,

both

unchanged

from

last

month.

India’s2023

economic

growth

forecast

is

revised

up

to

6%,while

growth

for

2024

remains

at

5.9%.Brazil’seconomicgrowth

forecast

is

revised

up

to

2.1%

in

2023,

while

growth

for

2024

is

unchanged

at

1.2%.

For

Russia,

the2023

economicgrowthforecastisrevisedup

to

1.0%,whilethegrowthforecastfor2024remainsat1.0%.World

Oil

DemandWorld

oil

demand

growth

forecast

in

2023

remains

unchanged

at

2.4

mb/d.

Upward

revisions

made

are

allbased

on

actual

data

received

for

China,

US

and

OECDEurope,

while

Other

Asia

is

revised

downwards.

Inthe

OECD

region,

oil

demand

in

2023

is

expected

to

rise

by

0.1

mb/d,

while

in

the

non-OECD

region,

oildemand

is

expected

to

rise

by

about

2.3

mb/d.

For

2024,

world

oil

demand

is

expected

to

grow

bya

healthy2.2

mb/d,

unchanged

from

the

previous

month’s

assessment.

The

OECD

is

expected

to

grow

by

about0.3mb/d,

with

OECD

Americas

contributing

the

largest

increase.

The

non-OECD

is

set

to

drive

growth,increasingby

about2.0mb/d,withChina,India,

MiddleEast

and

Other

Asiacontributingthemost.World

Oil

SupplyNon-OPEC

liquids

supply

growth

forecast

is

revised

up

slightly

to

1.6

mb/d

in

2023.

Main

drivers

of

liquidssupply

growth

for

2023

include

the

US,

Brazil,

Norway,Kazakhstan,

Guyana

and

China.

For

2024,

non-OPECliquids

production

is

expected

togrow

by1.4

mb/d,

unchanged

from

the

previous

month’s

assessment.

Maindrivers

for

liquids

supply

growth

next

year

are

set

to

be

the

US,

Canada,

Guyana,

Brazil,

Norway

andKazakhstan.

The

largest

declinesareanticipatedinMexico

andMalaysia.OPECNGLsand

non-conventionalliquids

are

forecast

to

grow

by

around

50

tb/d

in

2023

to

average

5.44

mb/d

and

by

another

65

tb/d

to

average5.51

mb/d

in

2024.

OPEC-13

crude

oil

production

in

August

increased

by

113

tb/d

m-o-m

to

an

average27.45mb/d,accordingtoavailablesecondary

sources.Product

Markets

and

Refining

OperationsIn

August,

refinerymargins

strengthened

and

reached

their

largest

monthly

gains

since

January

2023.

In

theUS

Gulf

Coast

(USGC),

margins

trended

upwards

for

the

third

consecutive

month

given

robust

middledistillates

performance,

which

drove

margins

to

new

highs.

In

Rotterdam,

strong

diesel

exports

to

the

US,

amidhealthy

jet/kerosene

requirements,

led

to

lower

availability

for

both

products

in

the

region.

In

Singapore,margins

received

support

from

a

tighter

product

balance

as

delays

in

product

export

quotas

limited

productsupplies

from

China

to

Singapore.

The

global

refinery

intake

showed

a

1.1

mb/d

m-o-m

gain

in

August

to

anaverage

of

82.9

mb/d,

resulting

in

a

year-on-year

intake

growth

of

about

3.9

mb/d.

In

the

coming

months,refinery

intakes

are

expected

to

come

under

pressure

from

rising

offline

capacities,

amid

the

start

of

a

heavymaintenanceseason.OPEC

MonthlyOilMarketReport–September

2023iiiOilMarketHighlightsTanker

MarketThe

tanker

market

showed

a

mixed

performance

in

August.

Dirty

tanker

freight

rates

continued

to

declineacross

allmonitored

routes,aslongtonnagelistsandreducedactivitiesweighedon

rates.

VLCCsweredown12%

m-o-m

on

the

Middle

East-to-East

route.

In

the

Suezmax

market,

rates

on

the

US

to

Europe

route

fell20%,

despite

the

region

seeing

slightly

more

activity.

Aframax

rates

on

the

Mediterranean-to-Northwest

Europeroute

declined

20%.

Limited

activities

also

prompted

increased

competition

between

the

various

vesselclasses,

further

weighing

on

rates.

In

contrast,

clean

spot

freight

rates

saw

another

month

of

improvementsacrosstheboardon

allmonitoredroutes,amidincreasedactivitiestowardtheendof

themonth.Crude

and

Refined

Products

TradePreliminarydata

shows

US

crude

imports

in

August

averaged

6.9

mb/d,

the

highest

since

August

2019

amidincreased

flows

from

Latin

America,

while

US

crude

exports

moved

back

above

4

mb/d

supported

by

higherflows

to

SouthKorea.

Japan's

crudeimports

edged

upm-o-m

in

July

toaverage2.34mb/dafter

witnessinga12

month

low

in

June,

while

the

country’s

product

flows

experienced

marginal

adjustments.

China’s

crudeimports

have

shown

some

volatility

in

recent

months,

although

with

an

overall

good

performance

so

far

thisyear.

Crude

inflows

fell

to

10.3

mb/d

in

July,

following

two

months

above

12

mb/d,

as

refiners

leaned

oninventories.

However,

recently

released

August

data

show

China’s

crude

imports

rebounded

again

to

average12.4

mb/d,

with

summer

gasoline

demand

and

positive

export

margins

for

diesel

providing

support.

India's

Julycrude

imports

declined

m-o-m

for

the

fifth

month

in

a

row

to

average

4.6

mb/d.

India’s

product

exports

remainedflat

for

thethird

monthina

row,

averaging1.3mb/d.Preliminary

estimates

show

OECDEuropecrudeimportsstrengthened

further

in

August,

amid

higher

inflows

from

Brazil.

Product

imports

were

down

slightly,

as

a

sharpfallin

dieselimportsoutpacedan

uptick

injetandLPG.Commercial

Stock

MovementsPreliminary

data

for

July

2023

sees

total

OECD

commercial

oil

stocks

down

by7.9

mb

m-o-m.

At

2,779

mb,they

were

190

mb

below

the

2015–2019

average.

Within

the

components,

crude

stocks

fell

by

14.2

mbm-o-m,

while

products

stocks

rose

by

6.3

mb

m-o-m.

OECD

commercial

crude

stocks

stood

at

1,348

mb

inJuly,

which

is114

mb

lower

than

the

2015–2019

average.

Total

product

stocks

stood

at

1,430

mb

in

July,

whichis

77mb

below

the

2015–2019

average.

In

terms

of

days

of

forward

cover,

OECD

commercial

stocks

in

Julyremainedunchangedat59.5

days

m-o-m,whichis

3.0days

below

the2015–2019average.Balance

of

Supply

and

DemandDemand

for

OPEC

crude

in

2023

is

revised

down

by

0.1

mb/d

fromthe

previous

month’s

assessment

to

standat

29.2mb/d,

which

is

around0.8mb/dhigher

than

in

2022.Demandfor

OPECcrude

in

2024

is

alsoreviseddown

by

0.1

mb/d

from

the

previousmonth’sassessment

to

stand

at30.0

mb/d,

which

is0.8

mb/d

higherthantheestimated2023level.ivOPEC

MonthlyOilMarketReport–September

2023FeatureArticleFeature

ArticleA

review

of

world

economic

developmentsThe

global

economic

growth

dynamics

in

1H23

have

been

resilient

despite

the

numerous

challenges,including

high

inflation,

elevated

interest

rates

and

geo-political

tensions.

This

steady

global

economic

growthtrendcontinuedinto3Q23,

supportedby

buoyantconsumerspending,

especially

intheservicessector.

Withthis,theglobalgrowthis

expected

at2.7%for2023and

2.6%

for2024

(Graph

1).The

downside

risk

for

this

projection

include

the

Graph

1:

GDP

growth

forecast

for

2023–24elevated

key

interest

rates

in

G7

except

Japan,2.72.6Worldchallenges

in

China’s

growth

dynamic,

and

acontinuation

of

the

conflict

in

Eastern

Europe.Sovereigndebt

levels

have

reached

recordhighs

inmany

economies,arealsoarisingconcern.202320241.8USEuro-zoneJapan0.70.60.81.5However,

an

upside

potential

may

come

from

less-accentuated

inflation,

providing

central

banks

withroom

for

accommodative

monetary

policies

in

thenear-term.1.02.1BrazilRussiaIndia1.21.01.06.05.9Emerging

Asia,

particularly

India,

Brazil

andRussia,could

further

surprise

to

the

upside,

with

domesticdemand

and

external

trade

accelerating.

An

even5.24.8China%stronger-than-anticipated

growth

trend

in

China,

Source:

OPEC.supported

by

further

fiscal

and

monetary

stimulus,

may

provide

additional

support

to

global

economicgrowth.

Moreover,

if

the

US

continues

to

keep

its

current

momentum,

growth

could

turn

out

to

be

higherthanexpected.Most

of

the

support

to

global

economic

growth

this

year

came

from

the

ongoing

rebound

in

the

servicessector.

In

particular,

the

contact-intensive

areas

of

the

services

sector,

including

leisure,

travel

and

tourism,experiencedanextendedboomafter

the

longperiodofpandemic-relatedlockdowns.

AsChina

and

Japanwithdrew

their

COVID-19-related

restrictions

only

at

the

start

of

this

year,

positive

economic

activity

hasbeen

especially

strongin

East-Asia.Going

forward,

an

important

dynamic

in

shaping

the

trajectory

of

the

global

economy

will

be

the

balancebetween

the

sectorial

contributions

of

the

industrial

and

services

sectors.

Economies

that

are

skewedtowards

the

industrial

sector,

which

were

more

successful

during

the

pandemic

years,

are

currently

laggingin

terms

of

growth

dynamic.

The

current

large

weight

of

the

services

sector

contribution

is

forecast

togradually

taperoff

whiletheindustrialinputto

theglobaleconomy

isexpectedto

gainmomentum

towardstheendof

the

year.The

ongoing

global

economic

growth

is

forecast

to

Graph

2:

World

oil

demand

growth

in

2023–24drive

oil

demand,

especially

given

the

recovery

intourism,

air

travel

and

steady

driving

mobility.

Oildemand

is

expected

to

grow

by

2.4

mb/d

y-o-y

inmb/d32.42.22023

and2.2mb/d

in

2024(Graph

2).210Pre-COVID-19

levels

of

total

global

oil

demand

willbe

surpassed

in

2023

to

average

at

102.1mb/d

andrisefurtherto104.3mb/din

2024.Onthesupply

side,OPECandnon-OPECcountriesparticipating

in

the

Declaration

of

Cooperation

(DoC)continue

to

assess

the

market

conditions,

address

itschallengesandtake

necessary

measureat

any

timeand

as

needed

inan

efforttoensuremarketstability20232024OECD

AmericasChinaOthersTotal

Worldfor

the

benefit

of

producers,

consumers

and

the

Source:

OPEC.globaleconomy.OPEC

MonthlyOilMarketReport–September

2023vviOPEC

MonthlyOilMarketReport–September

2023Tableof

ContentsTable

of

ContentsOil

Market

HighlightsiiiFeature

ArticlevA

review

of

world

economic

developmentsvCrude

Oil

Price

MovementsCrudespotprices11356The

oilfuturesmarketThe

futuresmarketstructureCrudespreadsCommodity

Markets779Trendsinselectedcommodity

marketsInvestmentflowsintocommoditiesWorld

Economy10121725OECDNon-OECDThe

impactof

theUSdollar

(USD)andinflationon

oilpricesWorld

Oil

DemandOECD262731Non-OECDWorld

Oil

SupplyOECD363845484950Non-OECDOPEC

NGLsandnon-conventionaloilsOPECcrudeoilproductionWorldoilsupplyProduct

Markets

and

RefineryOperationsRefinery

margins51515253Refinery

operationsProductmarketsTanker

Market5757575859Spot

fixturesSailingsandarrivalsDirty

tankerfreightratesCleantankerfreightratesOPEC

MonthlyOilMarketReport–September

2023viiTableof

ContentsCrude

and

Refined

Products

Trade60606162636364USChinaIndiaJapanOECD

EuropeEurasiaCommercial

Stock

Movements666667686970OECDUSJapanEU-14plusUKand

NorwaySingapore,Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp(ARA)andFujairahBalance

of

Supply

and

Demand717172Balanceof

supply

anddemandin

2023Balanceof

supply

anddemandin

2024Appendix73Glossary

of

TermsAbbreviationsAcronyms797979viiiOPEC

MonthlyOilMarketReport–September

2023Crude

Oil

Price

MovementsCrude

Oil

Price

MovementsCrude

spot

prices

extended

their

gains

in

August,

buoyed

byrobust

physical

crude

market

fundamentals.Firm

demand

for

crude

in

the

spot

market,

rising

global

refinery

intakes,

stronger

refining

margins,

and

alargedrawinUS

crudestocksboostedspot

prices.In

August,

the

OPEC

Reference

Basket

(ORB)

value

increased,

rising

by

$6.27,

or

7.7%,

m-o-m

to

average$87.33/b,dueto

therisein

allORB

component-relatedcrudebenchmarksandhigherofficialsellingpricesandcrudedifferentials

of

allcrudequalities.Crude

oil

futures

prices

sustained

their

upward

momentum,

building

upon

the

rebound

witnessed

in

July,asinvestorsexhibitedrenewedoptimism

regarding

theglobaloilmarket

outlook

intheshortterm.Asurgein

middle

distillates

margins

amid

a

tight

diesel

market

lent

support.

Concerns

about

the

impact

of

HurricaneIdalia

on

oil

supply

also

supported

oil

futures.

However,the

rally

in

priceswascapped

by

sentiments

abouttheUS

andChina'seconomicoutlooks.In

August,

the

ICE

Brent

front-month

averaged

$4.94,

or

6.2%,

higher

m-o-m

to

stand

at

$85.10/b,

andNYMEX

WTI

rose

by

$5.29,

or

7.0%,

m-o-m

to

average

$81.32/b.

DME

Oman

crude

oil

futures

pricesincreasedin

Augustby

$5.30,or

6.5%,

m-o-mtosettleat

$86.46/b.The

speculative

activity

showed

mixed

movements

in

August

in

the

two

major

futures

and

options

contractsICE

Brent

and

NYMEX

WTI,

but

total

net

long

positions

declined

over

the

last

month.

Hedge

funds

andothermoney

managers

acceleratedthe

selling

ofbullish

positionsin

the

second

and

thirdweeks

ofAugustas

oil

prices

retreated

and

uncertainties

about

China

and

US

economic

outlooks

were

amplified

by

officialdata.The

market

structure

of

all

three

major

oil

benchmarks

strengthened

further

in

August.

The

near-monthcontract

spreads

moved

into

deeper

backwardation,

amid

investors'

sentiment

about

the

improving

globaloil

demand

outlook

for

the

remainder

of

this

year.

A

decline

in

OECD

crude

stocks

for

three

consecutivemonths

to

June

and

a

continued

large

decline

in

US

crude

stocks

for

several

consecutive

weeks

boostedthevalueof

front-monthcontractscomparedtoforward-monthcontracts.After

narrowing

for

several

months

to

historically

low

levels,

the

sweet-sour

crude

differentials

widenedslightly

in

August

m-o-m,

but

theyremained

narrow

compared

to

historical

levels.

Higher

margins

for

lightdistillate

products,

such

as

naphtha

and

gasoline,

and

increased

demand

for

blending

buoyed

light

sweetcrude.However,atightsourcrudemarket

keptthesweet/sour

differentialsnarrow.Crude

spot

pricesIn

August,

crude

spot

prices

were

buoyed

by

the

rally

Graph

1

-

1:

Crude

oil

price

movementsin

futures

prices,

which

gained

momentum

on

theback

of

healthy

oil

supply

and

demand

expectations.Physical

crude

market

fundamentals

remained

solidthroughout

August

and

September's

trading

cycles,characterized

by

firm

demand

for

crude

in

the

spotmarketandadeclinein

UScrudestocks.US$/b11010090807060The

increase

in

global

refinery

intake,

particularly

inthe

US

and

China,

along

with

a

sharp

rise

in

globalrefining

margins

signalled

a

heightened

demand

forcrude

oil

to

meet

the

growing

need

for

refinedproducts,

providing

substantial

impetus

to

spot

prices.OPECBasketNorthSeaDatedWTISources:Argus,OPECand

Platts.China

showed

robust

oil

demand

during

the

summer

travel

season.

Simultaneously,

the

surge

in

refiningmargins

in

Asia

further

incentivized

Chinese

refineries

to

process

more

crude

oil.

The

healthy

demand

fromAsian

buyers,

including

independent

refiners

in

China,

buoyed

the

value

of

sour

crude

prices.

Data

from

theNational

Bureau

of

Statistics

(NBS)

showed

a

3.6%

month-on-month

increase

in

China's

oil

refinery

throughputinJuly

to63.1millionmetrictons.OPEC

MonthlyOilMarketReport–September

20231Crude

Oil

Price

MovementsIn

the

US,

the

substantial

drawdown

in

national

commercial

crude

stocks

had

a

positive

impact

on

marketdynamics,

amid

robust

demand

from

domestic

refiners

and

strong

demand

for

exports

that

remained

buoyedby

favourableexporteconomics.A

sharp

rise

in

refining

margins,

specifically

for

diesel

and

jet

fuel

cracks,

which

was

witnessed

in

all

majorhubs,alongwiththetightdiesel

marketlentsupporttotheoilcomplex.Moreover,

lower

loading

programs

for

some

grades,

particularly

medium

sour,

in

various

regions

contributedtotheupward

momentum

in

spot

prices.This

added

toconcerns

regarding

thepotential

impactof

hurricanesonoilsupply.In

August,

a

rise

in

spot

prices

was

evident

in

North

Sea

Dated

and

Dubai,

which

increased

by

$6.05

and$6.13,

respectively,

or

7.6%

in

both

cases,

to

settle

at

$86.14/b

and

$86.46/b.

WTI's

first

month

rose

by

$5.56,or7.3%,

tosettleat

$81.41.Table

1

-

1:

OPEC

Reference

Basket

and

sel