戰(zhàn)略分析報告－摩根斯坦利（英文版）

Presentation

to

the

Automotive

NewsWorldCongressStephen

J.

GirskyJanuary

2004DisclosuresAnalyst

CertificationAnalyst

CertificationThe

following

analysts

hereby

certify

that

their

views

about

the

companies

and

their

securities

discussed

in

this

report

are

accurately

expressed

and

that

they

have

not

received

andwill

not

receive

direct

or

indirect

compensation

in

exchange

for

expressing

specific

recommendations

or

views

in

this

report:

Stephen

J.

Girsky.Important

US

Regulartory

Disclosures

on

Subject

CompaniesThe

information

and

opinions

in

this

report

were

prepared

by

Morgan

Stanley

&

Co.

Incorporated

(“MorganStanley”).As

of

November

28,

2003,

Morgan

Stanley

beneficiallyowned

1%

or

more

of

a

class

of

common

equity

securities

of

the

following

companies

covered

in

this

report:

Delphi,GeneralMotors,

Goodyear

Tire

&

Rubber,

Johnson

Controls,

Magna

Intl

Inc.,

TBC

and

Tower

Automotive.Within

the

last

12

months,

Morgan

Stanley

managed

or

co-managed

a

public

offering

of

securities

of

DaimlerChrysler

AG,

Delphi,

Ford,

General

Motors,

Standard

Motor

Products

andTenneco.Within

the

last

12

months,

Morgan

Stanley,

Morgan

Stanley

or

an

affiliate

has

received

compensation

for

investment

banking

services

from

Aftermarket

Technology,

AmericanAxleand

Mfg.,

BorgWarner

Inc.,

DaimlerChrysler

AG,

Delphi,

Ford,

General

Motors,

Standard

Motor

Products,

Superior

Industries,

Tenneco,

Tower

Automotive

and

Visteon

Corporation.In

the

next

3

months,

Morgan

Stanley

expects

to

receive

or

intends

to

seek

compensation

for

investment

banking

services

from

Aftermarket

Technology,

American

Axle

and

Mfg.,ArvinMeritor,

AutoNation,

Borg

Warner

Inc.,

DaimlerChrysler

AG,

Dana

Corp.,

Delphi,

Ford,

General

Motors,

Genuine

Parts

Co.,

Goodyear

Tire

&

Rubber,

Johnson

Controls,

LearCorp.,

Lithia

Motors,

Magna

Intl

Inc.,

Standard

Motor

Products,

Superior

Industries,

Tenneco,

Tower

Automotive,

United

Auto

Group

and

Visteon

Corporation.The

research

analysts,

strategist,

or

research

associates

principally

responsible

for

the

preparation

of

the

research

report

have

received

compensation

based

upon

various

factors,including

quality

of

research,

investor

client

feedback,

stock

picking,

competitive

factors,

firm

revenues

and

investment

banking

revenues.Morgan

Stanley

&

Co.

Incorporated

makes

a

market

in

the

securities

of

Aftermarket

Technology,

Delphi,

Dura

Automotive,

Ford,

General

Motors,

Magna

Intl.,

TBC

and

TowerAutomotive.Global

Stock

Ratings

Distribution(as

of

December

31,

2003)(Continued)DisclosuresDisclosuresMorgan

Stanley

is

involved

in

many

businesses

that

may

relate

to

companies

mentioned

in

this

report.

These

businesses

include

specialized

trading,

risk

arbitrage

and

other

proprietarytrading,

fund

management,

investment

services

and

investment

banking.Morgan

Stanley

makes

every

effort

to

use

reliable,

comprehensiveinformation,but

we

make

no

representation

that

it

is

accurate

or

complete.

We

have

no

obligation

to

tell

you

whenopinions

or

information

in

this

report

change

apart

from

when

we

intend

to

discontinue

research

coverage

of

subject

company.Reports

prepared

by

Morgan

Stanley

research

personnel

are

based

on

public

information.

Facts

and

views

presented

in

this

report

have

not

been

reviewed

by,

and

may

not

reflectinformation

known

to,

professionals

in

other

Morgan

Stanley

business

areas,

including

investment

banking

personnel.The

value

of

and

income

from

your

investments

may

vary

because

of

changes

in

interest

rates

or

foreign

exchange

rates,

securities

prices

or

market

indexes,

operational

or

financialconditions

of

companies

or

other

factors.

There

may

be

time

limitations

on

the

exercise

of

options

or

other

rights

in

your

securities

transactions.

Past

performance

is

not

necessarily

aguide

to

future

performance.

Estimates

of

future

performance

are

based

on

assumptions

that

may

not

be

realized.This

publication

is

disseminated

in

Japan

by

Morgan

Stanley

Japan

Limited

and/or

Morgan

Stanley

Nippon

Securities

Limited;

in

Singapore

by

organ

Stanley

Dean

WitterAsia

(Singapore)

Pte.,

regulated

by

the

Monetary

Authority

of

Singapore;

in

Australia

by

Morgan

Stanley

Dean

Witter

Australia

Limited

A.B.N.

67

003

734

576,

a

licensed

dealer,

which

acceptsresponsibility

for

its

contents;

in

certain

provinces

of

Canada

by

Morgan

Stanley

Canada

Limited,

which

has

approved

of,

and

has

agreed

to

take

responsibility

for,

the

contents

of

thispublication

in

Canada;

in

Spain

by

Morgan

Stanley,

S.V.,S.A.,

a

Morgan

Stanley

group

company,

which

is

supervised

by

the

Spanish

Securities

Markets

Commission

(CNMV)

and

statesthat

this

document

has

been

written

and

distributed

in

accordance

with

the

rules

of

conduct

applicable

to

financial

research

as

established

under

Spanish

regulations;

in

the

United

States

by

Morgan

Stanley

&

Co.

Incorporated

and

Morgan

Stanley

DW

Inc.,

which

accept

responsibility

for

its

contents;

and

in

the

United

Kingdom,

this

publication

is

approved

by

Morgan

Stanley

&

Co.

International

Limited,

solely

for

the

purposes

of

section

21

of

the

Financial

Services

and

Markets

Act

2000.

Private

U.K.

investors

should

obtain

the

advice

of

their

MorganStanley

&

Co.International

Limited

representative

about

the

investmentconcerned.The

trademarks

and

service

marks

contained

herein

are

the

property

of

their

respective

owners.

Third-party

data

providers

make

no

warranties

or

representations

of

any

kind

relating

tothe

accuracy,

completeness,

or

timeliness

of

the

data

they

provide

and

shall

not

have

liability

for

any

damages

of

any

kind

relating

to

such

data.

The

Global

Industry

ClassificationStandard

("GICS")

was

developed

by

and

is

the

exclusive

property

of

MSCI

andS&P.This

report

or

any

portion

hereof

may

not

be

reprinted,

sold

or

redistributed

without

the

written

consent

of

MorganStanley.Additional

information

on

recommended

securities

is

available

on

request.OverviewAuto

Outlook:

Sameproblems;

LessofthemGlobalDilemma:Mostparticipantsspendingforgrowthyettheindustrydoesnotgrow.Demandgrowth

is

likelytobemodestdespiteeconomicrecovery.Competitivepressuresare

likelytoremaindifficult.Weakerdollar

could

level

provide

some

offset.Higherratescreate

riskof

weaker

demand,weaker

mixand

lowerfinancecompany

earnings.Big

Three

opportunity:

Actualquality

is

betterthan

perceivedquality.GlobalLightVehicle

Sales:

Slow

GrowthCAGR1.2%Source:

LMC~J.D.

Power

&Morgan

Stanley

ResearchGlobalSalesForecasts:2003

-2004Source:

Global

Insight

&Morgan

Stanley

Research*

Noteforecasts

are

derived

from

Global

InsightU.S.

Sales16.7mmUnitsFY03E16.8mmUnitsFY04ESource:Autodata&MorganStanleyResearchJapaneseSAAR5.6mmUnitsFY03E5.7mmUnitsFY04ESource:MorganStanleyResearchWesternEuropeanSAARmmFY03EmmFY04ESource:MorganStanleyResearchGlobalExcessCapacityat25%-30%or20mmunitsSource:Autofacts&MorganStanleyResearchCapEx/D&AFY2003E:OEMsSpendingforGrowthSource:Companydata&MorganStanleyResearch*AdjustedtofitscaleZeroSumGameGlobalDilemma:Mostparticipantsarespendingforgrowth,yettheindustrydoesnotgrow.Slowgrowth&excesscapacitysuggestdeflation/revenuepressuresarelikelytocontinue.Noteverybodycanbeawinner.Winnerswillbelowcostproducerswhodeliveragoodproductthatconsumersarewillingtopayfor.ModestDemandGrowthDemandgrowthislikelytobemodestdespiteeconomicrecovery:Autosalesdidnotweakenmateriallyinthemostrecentrecessionandthus,significantpent-updemandwasnevercreated.Thenumberofoff-leasevehiclesisfallingsharply––

fewerconsumersarebeingforcedbacktoadealertobuyorleaseanewvehicle.Extended

financing

terms

arelikelyto

prolong

vehicle

turnover.

Economic

conditions

appear

mixed.Light

VehicleSales

Trend

Line

DemandSource:MorganStanley

ResearchLight

VehicleSales

Cycle:

Trough

to

TroughSource:R.L.

Polk,

Global

Insight

&MorganStanley

ResearchWeighted

Median

Age

of

a

Vehicle

vs.

Sales1

YearLead

Correlation

77.6%Source:Polk

&MorganStanley

ResearchOff

Lease

Vehicles

Begin

toDeclineSource:Manheim

&

Morgan

Stanley

ResearchFewer

Consumers

BeingForcedBack

to

the

DealershipsAverageMaturity

of

VehicleLoans

(months)Source:Federal

Reserve

Board

&

Morgan

Stanley

ResearchTakingLongerto

Establish

ConsumerEquitySource:FRB

&MorganStanleyResearchEconomic

ConditionsBetterthan

they

were,

but

still

not

robustPeak

Trough

Now

Jan-02

Oct-02

Nov-03

Interest

RatesConsumer

ConfidenceGasoline

PricesUsed

Car

PricesEmploymentSource:CPI

&MorganStanleyResearchAffordabilityNear

25Year

BestNumberof

Weeks

of

Income

toPurchase

a

VehicleSource:FRB

&MorganStanleyResearchIntenseCompetitionCompetitive

pressuresare

likelytoremaindifficult:Capacity

growth

to

continuein

2004.Pricingis

likely

toremaindifficult

althoughaweak

dollar

may

provide

a

modest

offset.Marketshare

pressures

to

continueas

well.NA

Capacity

Additions,

Despite

FlatSls

OutlookSource:Company

data&

Morgan

Stanley

Research20052003Ford(122)Nissan250Toyota1803082004Ford

(211)GM

(98)DCX

80Hyundai

235=

100,000

unitsGMFordHonda125(146)180Nissan

200Toyota

30Net

Increase

Of

853,000

Units

or

Roughly

5.1%

of

NA

sales

2006

Toyota

1503896ExcessCapacity

&

More

Is

OnThe

Wayvery

1%

Pt.

of

Market

ShareTranslates

into

$1.0bn

in

Prof853,000

Units

of

Added

Capacity

is

5.1%ofNACapacity,or$5bn

in

PretaxProfitsNAPretaxProfit

FY03E(inMM)BigThree

$1,971Source:

MorganStanley

Research

EstimatesRevenue

PressuresWorstSince1970’sNewCar

CPIvs.DomesticLightVehicleSalesSource:

CPI

&

MorganStanley

ResearchY/Y

Changein

Monthly

NewCarCPISource:

CPI

&

MorganStanley

ResearchPriceReductions

PressureManufacturersSource:

MorganStanley

ResearchEvery1%

Decline

inPrices

isWorth$1.0bn

atGM$850mm

atFord$550mm

atDCXBig

Three

Market

Share

Continues

toSlide61.7%60.2%Every1%

Point

ofShareis

Worth

Roughly

$1bn

inProfit76.0%Source:

Autodata

&Morgan

Stanley

ResearchMarketShareWinners

/

Losers––FY03Source:

Autodata

&Morgan

Stanley

ResearchBig

Three

Share

ofSalesbySegment:FY-03vs.FY-02Source:

Autodata

&Morgan

Stanley

ResearchUS

Dollar

per

Euro:

Jan03

-

PresentSource:

FactSet

&MorganStanley

ResearchJapanese

Yenvs.

U.S.

DollarSource:

FactSet

&MorganStanley

ResearchYen

toUS

Dollar

Price

Sensitivity:YTD

03Source:

Company

Data

&

MorganStanley

ResearchNote:*

Includes

Acura,Infiniti,

LexusWeakerDollar

Could

Helpa

LittleSource:

Morgan

Stanley

ResearchGlobalOperating

MarginsFY02Source:

Company

data

&

MorganStanley

Research*Morgan

Stanley

EstimatesExcluding

Pension&

OPEBExpense

forthe

Big

ThreePorsche16.4%Nissan10.6%BMW8.9%Honda8.4%Toyota8.1%Hyundai6.1%GM5.7%Peugeot5.0%Kia4.7%VW4.0%DCX3.8%Renault1.7%Ford1.8%Fiat-6.2%HigherRatesCouldbe

aNegativeHigherratescreate

riskof

weaker

demand,weakermixand

lower

financecompany

earningsExtended

termssuggest

longerreplacementrates.Every1%

increase

infinancingrates

on5-yearloans

isworth

$730-750pervehicle.AutoFinance

Terms:Fall2001vs.

NowSource:

FRB

&

MorganStanley

ResearchGMAC/

FMCC

Borrowing

CostsSource:

FRB

&

MorganStanley

ResearchBig

3Opportunity:Actual

QualityisBetterthanPerceivedQualitySource:

JDPower,

CNW

&

MorganStanley

ResearchThe

Big

Three:Positives&

NegativesEachCompany

Faces

UniqueChallenges:GM

has

operational

momentumandhasmadesignificant

stridesrelativeto

itsfixed

legacycosts.Ford’s

share

islikely

toremain

underpressure.Whileearningsand

cost

cuttinghave

been

strong,cashflowneedsto

catchup.DCX

continues

to

strugglewithitsproductline.Quality

issues,bothperceived(Chrysler)

andactual

(Mercedes)

continue

tolinger.

Big

ThreeRelative

StockPerformance:

2003Source:

FactSet&

MorganStanley

ResearchGeneral

MotorsGM

still

appears

tohaveavariablecostadvantagevs.F

&

DCX

and

afixedcostdisadvantage.GM’saggressivefunding

of

pensionandhealthcarehavehelped

tonarrow

thefixedcost

disadvantage.Significant

newproduct

launches

giveGMitsbestchance

ofgaining

share/reducingincentives

in

years.GM

isgoing

into

2004

with

aboveaverageinventory.GMMarketShare35.5%28.4%28.0%Source:

Autodata

&

MorganStanley

ResearchU.S.Healthcare&

PensionCost/UnitFY03Source:

Companydata&

MorganStanley

Research$1,159$814$740$1,899$902$1074$185$889$88GM

PensionFunded

Status:2003UpdateSource:

CompanyData&

MorganStanley

ResearchGM

Has

Built

Inventory

in2003Source:

Autodata

&

MorganStanley

ResearchFinancialService

Earnings

Unlikelyto

Match2003Source:

Companydata&

MorganStanley

ResearchGM

New

/

Replacement/

Redesigned

ProductsSource:

CompanyData,

Ward’s

Automotive&

Morgan

Stanley

ResearchFordMotorCompanyEarnings

have

exceeded

expectations.

Nowcash

flow

needs

tocatch

up.Withthe

exception

of

theF-Series,newproducts

are

limiteduntil

year-end,

suggesting

share

pressure

islikelytocontinue.International

Operations/PremierAutoGroupneedto

startpulling

theirweight.Stabilityin

management

ranksis

important.F

Market

ShareSource:

Autodata

&

MorganStanley

Research19.6%19.5%20.2%25.7%F vs.

GMCashFlowSource:

Companyreports

&Morgan

StanleyResearchF

AutoPre-TaxProfit,1999-2004ESource:

CompanyData&

MorganStanley

ResearchF

Geographic

Pre-taxProfit:

3Q03

vs.

3Q02Source:

Companyreports

&Morgan

StanleyResearchF

New/

Replacement/

Redesigned

ProductsSource:

CompanyData,

Ward’s

Automotive&

Morgan

Stanley

ResearchF

NewProduct

MonitorSource:Autodata&MorganStanleyResearchGM/FordOutlook;WhatTheySayGMexpectsmarketstogrowaroundtheworldandtheirmarketsharetogrowineveryr