萬國郵政聯(lián)盟-2023全球郵政發(fā)展報告：中國進(jìn)入top10（英）

Original:English

StateofthePostalSector2023

AHyper-CollaborativePathtoPostalDevelopment

Berne,October2023

3

TableofcontentsPage

ExecutiveSummary7

I.Introduction:thepostalmosaic-aglobalnexusunderpressure10

II.Measuringpostaldevelopmentanditsimpactonnationaleconomicgrowth11

A.Howessentialarepostalservicesforeconomicdevelopment?11

B.Using2IPDtomeasurethepostalcontributiontoeconomicdevelopment11

C.Atransparent,equitableandinclusiveindex13

III.Postaldevelopmentlevelsacrosstheworld15

A.2022-aglobalupsurgeinpostaldevelopment16

B.Globalreliabilityscoredistribution(R1)17

C.Globalreachscoredistribution(R2)18

D.Globalrelevancescoredistribution(R3)18

E.Globalresiliencescoredistribution(R4)19

F.Assessingglobalpostaldevelopmentgaps19

IV.2022postalsectorleaders20

A.Leadersinpostalexcellence21

B.Regionalchampions21

C.Postaldevelopmentconvergenceworldwide:acatch-upassessment21

D.Outstanding2IPDperformersin202223

V.Globalpostalmarketlandscape23

A.Postaltraffic-letterpost23

B.Postaltraffic-parcelpost24

C.EstimatedDOmarketsharesofletter,expressandparcelpost25

D.Estimatingtheglobalpostalmarketfor202228

VI.Using2IPDtoassesstheimpactofpostaldevelopmentoneconomicgrowth28

A.Deliveringeconomicresilience28

B.Econometricestimations28

C.Anevidencebaseforpolicydecisions32

VII.Postaleconomicviability-trendsandforecasts32

A.Mainglobalpostalindustrytrendsandpredictions33

B.Globalevolutionofthepostalincomeandrevenues33

C.Regionalevolutionofpostalincomeandrevenuestructures37

4

Tableofcontents(cont.)Page

VIII.Internationalpostalexchanges-theglobalconnectivityconundrum39

A.Introduction39

B.Post-COVID-19pandemic:aneweraforglobalpostalexchanges39

C.Aneconometricapproachtotheevolutionofinternationalpostalexchanges44

D.Evolutionofinternationalpostalshippingprices46

E.Evolutionofinternationaldeliverytimesandreliabilityofpostalservices48

F.Overarchingfindings50

IX.Thedigitalalchemy:AIandthedawnofhyper-collaborationinthepostalsector50

A.Introduction50

B.Sowhatishyper-collaboration?AndwhatistheroleofAI?51

C.Thepressingneedfornewcollectiveproblem-solvingmechanisms51

D.Usecasesforanewgenerationofhyper-collaborativeinternationalpostalinstitutions52

X.UPU-centrichyper-collaborationininternationalpostalservices55

A.ReimaginingtheUPU’smissionfortheAIcentury57

B.TheUPU’spathtothefuture58

XI.Arenewedglobalpostalfabric:stitchingtogetheraresilientfuture58

Bibliographyandcitations60

Annex1:

Detailed20222IPDscoresbyPDL62

Annex2:

Postalindustrytrendsandforecasts(2005–2025)69

5

Listofabbreviations

2IPD

AI

CIS

DO

EAD

EMS

GDP

IATA

ICs

PDL

PPP

SDG

SDR

UPU

WHO

IntegratedIndexforPostalDevelopment

Artificialintelligence

CommonwealthofIndependentStates

Designated(postal)operatorofaUPUmembercountry

Electronicadvancedata

ExpressMailService

Grossdomesticproduct

InternationalAirTransportAssociation

Industrializedcountries

Postaldevelopmentlevel

Purchasingpowerparity

UNSustainableDevelopmentGoals

SpecialDrawingRights

UniversalPostalUnion

WorldHealthOrganization

7

ExecutiveSummary

Thepostalsectorremainsacriticalelementintheglobalecosystem,transcendingborderstoconnectpeople,businessesandgovernments.Itnotonlyfacilitatescommunication,butalsoservesasthebackboneofdigitaltrade,logistics,andeveneconomicresilience.However,thesectorisgrapplingwithamultitudeofchallenges,fromthelastingdisruptionsinducedbyglobalcrises,suchastheCOVID-19pandemic,tothetransformativeshiftsinconsumerbehaviourusheredinbythedigitalage.Thisreportprovidesanexhaustiveexaminationofthepostalsector’sexistinglandscape,challenges,innovations,andthepotentialavenuesforfuturegrowthandresilience.

IntegratedIndexforPostalDevelopment(2IPD):keyfindingsandinsights

Ourstudybeginswithanin-depthanalysisusingthe2IPD,whichservesasanindispensabletoolforunderstandingtheintricaciesofglobalpostaldevelopment.In2023,wefindthattheworldmedianpostaldevelopmentscorehasincreased,highlightingsignificantpostaldevelopmentprogressin49countriesoutofthe172coveredinourresearch.

Wefindasignificantpositivecorrelationbetweenhigherpostaldevelopmentscoresandstrongereconomicresilience.CountrieswithrobustpostalservicesdemonstratedgreatercapacitytoabsorbtheshocksofrecentdisruptiveeventsliketheCOVID-19pandemic,andshowedsignsofquickereconomicrecovery.Thishighlightsthecompellingcaseforgovernmentstonotonlycontinueinvestinginthepostalsector,butalsocreateanenablingenvironmentthatcanamplifyitsbenefits,givenitsdemonstratedroleinenhancingeco-nomicresilienceduringturbulenttimes.

Wealsofindthat–inthehypotheticalcaseofthecompleteabsenceofpostalinfrastructure–therewouldbeamedianreductionof6.96%inacountry’sannualGDP.ThisfiguredramaticallyeclipsesthetraditionallyciteddirectcontributionsofpostalservicestoGDP,whichrangefrom0.5%to1.0%.

Giventheirnetworkeffects,postalservicesamplifytheirdirecteconomicimpactbyafactorofatleastseven.ThissignificantlyunderscoresthevitalroleplayedbyPostsintheirrespectiveeconomies.

Thisisaground-breakingrevelationwhichhighlightsthepotentialfortargetedinvestmentsinthepostalsectortocatalyzeeconomicgrowthandrecovery.Itelevatesthediscussionfromoneofmereassociationtooneofdirectinfluence,therebyemphasizingthecriticalrolethepostalsystemplaysinthesocio-economiclandscapeofanation.

The2IPDanalysis,however,revealsworrisomepostaldevelopmentdisparitiesbetweennations.Thesearenotmerelyservicegaps;theymanifestasconcreteeconomicdisadvantagesandoverlookedchancesforinclusivegrowth.Suchdisparitieshindermanydevelopingnationsfromelevatingthelivingstandardsoftheirmostvulnerablecitizens,emphasizingtheimmediatenecessityforglobalpolicyinterventions.

Postaleconomicsustainabilityoutlook

Letterpostincome-awaningsource:OurresearchpointstoasignificantdropinthepercentageofPosts’revenuegeneratedfromletter-postservices–fromover50%in2005to34%in2021.Forecastssuggestafurtherdecline,reachingapproximately29%by2025.Withtheaccelerationofdigitalizationandshiftsincom-municationmethods,thedecliningtrendofletter-postvolumesisundeniable,albeitshowingsignsofstabili-zationinthenearfuture.

Parcelsandlogistics-thenewfrontier:Instarkcontrast,incomefromparcelsandlogisticshasbeenontherise,surgingfrom11%in2005toover32%in2021.Predictionsindicateanevenhigherascent,nearing36%by2025,potentiallyovertakingletter-postrevenues.Thecatalystsforthisshiftappeartobetheincreasingrelianceone-commerceandonlineshopping,althoughthissectoralsofacesstiffcompetitionfromalternativedeliveryservices.

Postalfinancialservices-asteadycontributor:Incomefrompostalfinancialserviceshasremainedfairlystable,hoveringaroundthe17%markovertheyears.Incountrieswithintegratedpostalfinancialnetworks,

8

thisshareisevenhigher.Thestabilityofthisincomesourcesuggeststhatpostalfinancialservicescontinuetobearevenue-generatingstrongholdfortheindustry.

Otherproducts-decliningyetpromising:Revenuefromothermiscellaneousproductsandserviceshasdeclined,andisexpectedtoreachabout17%by2025.However,thisdipcouldbeoffsetiftheindustryman-agestofocusoninnovativedigitalpostalservices,whicharecurrentlyemergingasalucrativemarket.

Globalpostalrealoperatingrevenues-achallengingdynamic:Wehaveobservedafluctuatingtrendintheannualgrowthratesofrealoperatingrevenues,peakingin2020duetotheCOVID-19pandemic.Althoughprojectionssuggestaslightdecline,therateisexpectedtostabilizeataround2.94%by2025.

Giventhesedynamics,thepostalindustryfacesanunprecedentedchallengeinensuringeconomicsustaina-bilityamidvaryingrevenuestreams,heightenedcompetition,andinflationarypressures.Thediversificationofrevenuealonemaynotsuffice;rather,asystemicintegrationofservicesisessential.E-commercepresentsanexcitingavenue,butitrequiresthepostalsectortoinnovate,potentiallythroughstrategiccollaborationswithdigitalplatforms,andenhancinglogisticscapabilities.

Whiletraditionalrevenuestreamslikeletterpostsaredwindling,newavenuessuchasparceldeliveriesanddigitalservicesofferapromisingfuture.Amidsttheseshifts,economicandenvironmentalsustainabilityhingesonthepostalsector’sabilitytoadapt,innovateandcollaborate.Despiteuncertainties,theoverarchingtrajec-toryappearspromising,especiallyiftheindustrycapitalizesonemergingtrendsandadoptsamultifacetedapproachtoservicedelivery.

Internationalpostalexchanges:volumeevolution,pricingdynamics,regulatorychangesandservicepredictability

Nosignificantreboundininternationalpostalvolumesafterthepandemic:DatauptoendofJune2023showsthatinternationalpostaltonnageremains44.5%lowercomparedtopre-pandemiclevels,withnosignsofstrongrecovery.

Newterminalduesandotherpolicyregimeshavefar-reachingimplications:Ouranalysisdivesdeepintothecomplexworldofterminalduesandpostalpricing.Forinstance,changesinterminalduesregimes,asseeninJuly2021,havefar-reachingimplicationsforinternationalpostagerates,affectingbothconsumersandinternationaldigitaltradedynamics.Alteringterminalduesforaspecificdestinationcaninfluenceotherdestinationsthroughelevatedinternationalpostalrates,evenifthoseflowswerenotthetargetintheinitialterminaldueschanges.Terminalduesandinternationalpostalratesmustbeseenasanecosystem.

Furthermore,thecombinedimpactofnewU.S.andEuropeanregulationsonelectronicadvancedata(EAD)andtaxregimeshashadsignificanteffectsonvariousinternationalmailclasses.Itisclearthatregulationsnowhaveaglobalimpactwhichneedstobemanagedcoherently.

Servicetimeshaveimproved;reliabilityhasnot:Whiletheend-to-enddeliverytimesforinternationalpostalserviceshavereturnedtopre-pandemiclevels,thepredictabilityoftheseserviceshasnot,showingincreasedvariancesindeliverytimes.Thisunpredictabilityinservicedeliverytimeshasthepotentialtoerodeconsumertrust,emphasizingtheneedforimprovingreliabilitythroughbetterinternationalpostallogisticsanddataana-lytics.

Thesedisruptionsandpolicyregimechangesunderscorethenecessityofaresilientsupplychaincapableofadaptingtounforeseenchallenges.

Technologicalinnovationsandhyper-collaboration:anewpathfortheUPU

RoleofAIandcollaborativeintelligence:Artificialintelligence(AI)offerstransformativecapabilitiesforthepostalsector.ThepotentialisevengreaterwhenAIsystemsareintegratedinahyper-collaborativeframeworkinvolvingmultiple,ecosystemicstakeholders.Thiskindofpartnershipcouldfacilitateoptimizedrouteing,real-timetracking,andpersonalizedservices,significantlyenhancingoperationalefficiencyandboostingthedecarbonizationofpostalexchanges.

9

Dataanalyticsandsharedinsights:Advanceddataanalyticsprovidethepostalsectorwiththetoolsforpriceoptimization,routeplanning,andconsumerbehaviourprediction.Throughhyper-collaboration,thesedataanalyticscapabilitiescanbeextendedtocross-industrypartners,thusamplifyingtheirimpactandleadingtomoreeffectivestrategies,particularlyfordeliveringgreeninternationalpostalgrowth.

Hyper-collaborativeglobalpolicyalignment:Morethanever,thereisaneedforglobalcooperationtostandardizeregulationsandoperationalinterfaces.Werecommendadoptingahyper-collaborativeapproachwhichinvolvesnotjustgovernmentsanddesignatedoperatorsbutalsowiderpostalsectorstakeholders,tocreateamoreequitablepostalecosystemgroundedonfreerdataexchanges.

Investmentincollaborativetechnologies:AlongsidetheadoptionofAIanddataanalytics,afocusontech-nologiesthatenablebettercollaborationwillmakethepostalsectormoreadaptivetofuturechallenges.Ouranalysisshowsthatenhancingservicequalityisnotjustatechnicalissue,butalsoacollaborativeone.Investmentsshouldbechannelledintocreatinghyper-collaborativenetworkswhichcanprovidemorereliable,higher-qualitypostalservices.

Bridgingthedevelopmentgapthroughcollaboration:Targetedeffortsshouldincludeformingpartnershipstoupliftthepostalinfrastructuresofcountrieslagginginthesector,thusprovidingthemwiththetoolstocatchupwiththeirglobalpeersrapidlyandsustainably.

Conclusionandforward-look

Inthefaceofnumerouschallenges,thepostalsectorstandsatapivotaljunctureteemingwithopportunitiesfortransformationandgrowth.

Emergingfromaseriesofunprecedentedglobalchallenges,thepostalsectordemonstratesbothvulnerabilityandresilience.Hyper-collaborationwilllikelyemergeasacriticalfactorinnavigatingthesecomplexitiesandglobaluncertainties.Byembracingtechnologicaladvanceswithinaframeworkofenhancedcollaborationandglobalunity,thesectorhasthepotentialtoweaveapostaltapestrythatisstronger,moreequitable,andfuture-ready.

However,theoverarchingsentimentfromourfindingsisoneofhopeandopportunity.

Inaspiritofglobalunityandhyper-collaboration,thepostalsystemcanremainavital,resilientforceforgood,pavingthewayforabrighter,moreconnectedfutureforusall.

10

I.Introduction:thepostalmosaic-aglobalnexusunderpressure

Inarapidlychangingworld,fewsectorsencapsulatetheessenceofsocietalinterconnectednessliketheglobalpostalsector.Servingasthecirculatorysystemforpersonalcommunicationsanddigitaltradealike,itbridgesdistancesnotjustwithinandbetweennations,butbetweeneconomies,cultures,andpeoplearoundtheworld.

Yet,theoncesteadfastpostaltapestrynowfindsitselfatacrossroads,wovenwithchallenges,frompandemicdisruptionstotheevolvingmarketdynamicsofthedigitaleconomy.

The2023StateofthePostalSectorreportdelvesintotheintricatedesignsofthepostalsector,examinesthechallenges,transformations,andthepotentialpathwaysforward,emphasizinginparticulartheprofoundimpactofpostaldevelopmentoneconomicresilienceandthepromiseofAI-ledhyper-collaborationtodriveitsrenaissance.

Overthecenturies,thepostalsectorhasdisplayedanextraordinarycapacityforevolution,transitioningfromaservicethatoncemerelydistributedphysicalletterstoonethatnowhandlescomplexlogisticsfore-commerce,bigdataanalytics,andevendigitalfinancialservices.Inaneramarkedbydigitaltransformation,thesectorhasrepositioneditselftobenotjustacarrierofgoods,butalsoaproviderofvalue-addedservicesintheglobaldigitalmarketplace.

ThechallengesfacedbythepostalsectorduringtheCOVID-19pandemichavethrownintosharpreliefthesector’scriticalroleasasocio-economicstabilizer.Intimesofcrisis,thepostalservicebecomesevenmoreessential,servingasalifelineforcommunitiestoaccessgoods,servicesandvitalinformation.

Inchapters2,3,and4,ourin-depthexaminationofthesector’sperformanceduringthepandemic–particularlythroughourIntegratedIndexforPostalDevelopment(2IPD)analysis,whichranksmembercountriesatoneof10postaldevelopmentlevels(PDLs)–providesanuancedunderstandingofhowpostalsystemscontrib-utedtoeconomicresilienceindifferentcountries.

Chapter5offersauniqueanalysisoftherecenttrendsintheglobalpostalvolumes,toshowthat,unsurpris-ingly,letter-postvolumesaredecliningstarkly,whileparcel-postvolumesareinanupwardtrend.Italsoshowsthemarketshareheldbydesignatedoperators(DOs)ofUPUmembercountriesforletter,parcel,andexpresspostalservices.

Ouranalysisrevealsadirectandpositivecorrelationbetweenthepostalsystemmaturityofamembercountryanditseconomicresilience.Chapter6clearlyshowsthat,withoutpostalinfrastructure,themediancountryintheworldwouldexperienceanearly7%reductioninitsannualGDP.

Inchapter7,weanalyzeandassessthetrendsandforecastsofpostalrevenueandincomegrowth.Parcelsandlogisticsrepresentapromisingfutureforthesector,andpostalfinancialservicesremainasteadfastcon-tributortotheDOs.

Theinternationalpostalsectorisalsonostrangertoregulatoryandmarketpressures.Theintroductionofnewterminalduesregimes,electronicadvancedata(EAD)requirements,andinternationalshippingratesiscon-stantlyalteringthelandscape.Asassessedinchapter8,thesechangescanhavefar-reachingeffectsoninternationaltradedynamics,consumerbehaviours,andeventheeconomicequilibriumbetweennations.Ourreportscrutinizesthesetransitionstocomprehendtheirlong-termimpactonboththeglobalpostalsectorandcommerceatlarge.

Throughchapters9and10,thisreportuniquelyaddressesthepromiseoftechnologyinrejuvenatingpostalservices,withaparticularfocusonartificialintelligence(AI).Webelievethattheadoptionofthiscutting-edgetoolcanbeagame-changerforthepostalsector.Ouranalysesdelveintotechnologicaltransformationsthatthesectorhasalreadyembraced,paintingafuturewhereAI-ledhyper-collaborationcansignificantlyelevateefficiency,servicequalityandenvironmentalsustainabilityofbothinternationalandnationalpostalservices.

Inanincreasinglyfragmentedworld,thepostalsectorremainsoneofthefewtrulyglobalnetworksthattouchalmosteveryaspectofhumanlife.Whetheritisaletterthatcarriesemotionsacrosscontinentsorapackagethatbridgesthegapbetweenasmallretailerinadevelopingnationandacustomerinabustlingcity,thepostalsectorisatestamenttoourinherentneedforconnection.

11

Thisreportaimstoofferpathwaystoensurethatthisglobalnexusremainsrobust,equitable,andpreparedforthechallengesandopportunitiesofthefuture.

Wehopethatourinsightsserveasavaluableresourceforpolicymakers,industrystakeholders,andanyoneinterestedinthecomplexitiesandpotentialsofthistrulyglobalservicenetwork,especiallyatatimewhenitisunderunprecedentedpressuresandfacingtransformativeopportunities.

II.Measuringpostaldevelopmentanditsimpactonnationaleconomicgrowth

A.Howessentialarepostalservicesforeconomicdevelopment?

Assessingtheeconomicimpactofthepostalsectorpresentsacomplexchallenge.Whilestudiesindicatethatinadvancedeconomies,postalservicescontributebetween0.5%and1%tothenationalgrossdomesticprod-uct(GDP)(Toledano,2004;AnsónandToledano,2008),theUPUestimates,whenadjustedforpurchasingpowerparity(PPP),a0.6%contributionbyDOstoGDPinhigh-incomecountriesfortheyear2021

(UPU,2023).Includingdevelopingcountries,thiscontributionisestimatedtobe0.4%ofglobalGDP.

However,thepostalnetworks’broaderroleinenablingvariouseconomicactivitiessuggeststhatthePost’sactualimpactlikelyexceedsthesepostaloutput-to-GDPfigures.Unfortunately,thelackofastandardizedglobalmethodforevaluatingpostaldevelopmenthaslongmadequantifyingthisimpactalmostimpossible.

Relyingonisolatedindicatorslikethenumberofpostofficesper10,000inhabitants,orannualletterorparceldeliveries,capturesonlyafractionofthepostalsector’sfullimpactoneconomicdevelopment.Additionally,thesestandalonemetricscouldbesubjecttovariousbiases,especiallysincepostalbusinessmodelsdifferaroundtheworld.Suchpartialindicatorsfallshortinofferingacomprehensiveviewofpostalservices’contri-butiontoeconomicwell-beingacrosscountries.

Indeed,single-variablemetricslikethedensityofpostofficesortraditionalpostalvolumescanoverlookcrucialaspectsofthepostalsector’srole,suchasdigitalintegration,speedandreliabilityofservice,orthePostbeinganimportantemployerinmostcountriesaroundtheworld.

Narrowerindicatorscanmissthebroaderpicturethatencompassesotheressentialelementslikeparceldeliveriesintoday’sboominge-commercemarket;financialservicesmadeavailabletothemostvulnerablepartsofacountry’spopulation;orevencommunityengagementandsocialservicesfacilitatedbythePost.

Furthermore,afocusonlimitedindicatorsmightnotaccountfortheinherentdisparitiesbetweendevelopedanddevelopingnations.Forinstance,whileahighnumberofpostofficescouldindicateadvancedinfrastruc-tureinonecountry,itmightsignifyinefficiencyorunderutilizationinanother.Thismakesitcrucialtoemployamorenuanced,compositemetricthatcanadjustforsuchvariationsandofferabalancedperspectiveonacountry’spostaldevelopmentlevel.

Inshort,whilecertainindicatorsmayprovidesomeinsights,theyareofteninsufficientforunderstandingthemulti-dimensionalnatureofpostalservicesandtheirimpactonbroadereconomicwell-being.Toavoidthepitfallsofafragmentedorbiased