《斯坦福大學(xué)公開課：遠(yuǎn)見的力量-NVIDIA創(chuàng)始人談企業(yè)發(fā)展過程 第4-6集》英中字幕

============目錄TOC\o"1-3"\h\u19933第4集 230011第5集 213887第6集 327269第3集 420909第1集 54725第2集 69935第3集 8第4集E04Thequestioniswhatdidourinvestorssayaboutustakingthebigrisk.Ofaddingprogramableshaders,reinventingthatproductcategoryandreinventingourcompany.Firstofallitisnotaconversationyoureallyhavewithyourshareholeders.Butyoudohavetheconversationwithyourmanagementteamfirst,youremployeessecond,yourboardofdirectorsthird.TypicallyistheprocessItake.Whenyouareinhightech,whenyouareinthetechnologyindustry,technologymovesthisfast.Ifyouarenotreinventingyourselfyouarejustslowlydying.YouarejustslowlydyingunfortunatelyattherateofMoore'sLaw.Whichisthefastestofanyratethatweknow.ThecompoundedrateofMoore'sLawisunbelievable.Question:Wehaveproductthatismakingalotofmoneyhowdoyoucannibalizeit.Thereisatheorythatifyoudonotcannibalizeitthensomebodywillanditsurelywillbecannibalized.Soifyouwanttobeamarketleaderyouhavetotaketheinitiativetocannibalizeyourownproductsandhaveyourideas,cannibalizeyourownideas.E04問題是我們的投資者對我們的冒險持怎樣的看法增加程序重新設(shè)計產(chǎn)品目錄重新組建公司首先你和你的股東并沒有真正對此進(jìn)行交流但是你首先要與你的管理團(tuán)隊進(jìn)行交流之后是你的雇員第三才是董事這就是我們通常的步驟在高新技術(shù)領(lǐng)域在高科技工業(yè)領(lǐng)域科技的發(fā)展日新月異不保持創(chuàng)新就等于慢性死亡你會根據(jù)穆爾定律的速度逐漸消亡這是我們知道的最快的速度穆爾定律的速度是無法比擬的問題:如果我們有一款產(chǎn)品賣的非常好我們?yōu)楹我蕴?有一個這樣的理論如果你不淘汰它其他人就會淘汰它所以你還是必須淘汰因此如果你要引領(lǐng)市場你就必須主動淘汰自己的產(chǎn)品有自己的思想淘汰自己的產(chǎn)品第5集E05Theeconomicsofbuildinganythingultimatelycomesdowntotheamountofcompetitionyouhave.Youdon'tsetthepricethecompetitionsetsthepriceThemarketdoesn'tsetthepricethecompetitiondoes.SoifyourcompetitorwishestobuildPlaystation3asmuchasyoudothentheeconomicswillbechallenging.Sothereyoujustneedtodecideisitaneconomicdecisionforyou.Forexampletherewererumoursthatwewerenotveryenthusiasticaboutbuildingsomeofthegamesconsolesbutmoreenthusiasticaboutbuildingothergamesconsoles.Itcamedowntothisforme.Ithinkyouhavetorealizewhatisthefiniteresourcewhatisthescarceresourcethatyouhaveasamanager.Thefunctionofamanageristoallocateresourcesproperlyforthebestreturn.Soifyouthinkaboutourresources,ourresourceisthefinitenumberofextraordinaryengineersandhowmuchtimetheyhaveinadaytopursuewhateveropportunitiesareoutthere.NowifthenumberofopportunitiesthatareoutthereislessthanmysupplyofengineerssothendemandexceedsislessthanmysupplythenobviouslyIamveryenthusiasticaboutit,ifitstheotherwayroundthentheopportunitytobuildagamesconsoleatterribleeconomicsoranyprojectatterribleeconomicsissimplynotworthit.Ilookatitirrespectiveofcompetition.ThecompetitionsetsthepricebutIgettodecideweatherIwanttoengageinthatprojectornot.YouareinchargeofyourowncompanyasaCEOSowedecidewhetherornotit'seconomicornotandonceyoudecideitiswhatitis.Youhavetobethoughtfulaboutwhatisyourcriticalresourcedoyouhavemoreofitorlessofitthanthemarketdemands,doyouhavemoreorlessopportunitythanyourresourcecansupportandwhatisyourreturnonthatinvestment.Notjustyoucostsbutmoreimportantlyyouropportunitycosts.Sowelookatitfromthatperspectiveeverysingletime.E05任何一種東西的建設(shè)從根本上說都是由競爭決定的定價的不是你是競爭定價的不是市場是競爭因此如果你的競爭對手要設(shè)計PS3那么你就會受到很大挑戰(zhàn)你就要思考這是否是一個經(jīng)濟(jì)的決定例如有傳言說我們對生產(chǎn)游戲機(jī)并不是很感興趣而是對生產(chǎn)另一款游戲機(jī)更感興趣于是問題就來了我想你要了解有限的原材料是什么作為經(jīng)理你手中有哪些有限的資源經(jīng)理的作用就是合理安排資源以得到最大的回報因此如果你想想我們的資源我們的資源包括數(shù)量有限的非凡的工程師以及他們每天有多長時間來探尋未知的機(jī)會因此如果機(jī)會的數(shù)量少于工程師的數(shù)量那么需求顯然小于我們提供的數(shù)量這時我就對它十分感興趣如果情況正好相反那么花費(fèi)大代價生產(chǎn)一款游戲機(jī)就是不值得的這里我并不考慮競爭競爭決定價格但我要決定我是否愿意開始這個項(xiàng)目作為CEO你掌管自己的公司我們來決定這是否經(jīng)濟(jì)你一旦決定結(jié)果就是這樣了你必須決定你的關(guān)鍵資源是什么它的數(shù)量大于還是小于市場需求你的機(jī)會是大于還是小于你的資源能夠支撐的程度你投資的回報是什么不只是你的成本更重要的是你的機(jī)會成本因此我們每次都從這個角度看待這個問題第6集E06Ithinkthatsomepeopleare,fromapersonalityperspectiveIamnotparticularlyoutgoingandthatisnotanecessityforbeenagoodCEO.ButasapersonalityIhavealwaysbeenabletolookaroundthecornersifyouwill.Icanseearoundthefuzzyedges.IthinkCEOsandleadersneedtobecomfortablewithambiguity.Ambiguitymeaningthatwhatdoesthefuturelooklike,wellit'shardtosay.Somepeoplehatethat,somepeoplejustsayJensentellmewhatyouneedtohavedoneandwithhowmuchresourcesandbywhen.Somepeoplerathermetellthemyeahlookthereisthisopportunityoutthere,I'mnotsurewhatis,I'mnotsurehowbigitisbutItkindoffeelslikethis,let'sgofigureitoutandbuildabusiness.Somepeopleareverycomfortablewiththat.SothisambiguityitisimportanttobecomfortablewithIguessandIthinkallCEOsthatareverysuccessfularecomfortablewithambiguityandIamverycomfortablewithambiguity.E06從性格角度講我認(rèn)為很多人不外向我自己就不是很外向而這并不是當(dāng)CEO的一個必要因素但是作為一個CEO我總能看到機(jī)會我能撥云見日我認(rèn)為CEO要習(xí)慣模棱兩可模棱兩可意味著我們很難預(yù)測未來是什么樣的一些人很討厭這一點(diǎn)一些人對我說"Jensen告訴我該做什么用多少資源什么時候一些人寧愿我告訴他們看那有一個機(jī)會我不確定是什么我不確定它的大小但是我感覺是這樣的我們?nèi)タ纯吹降自趺礃右恍┤撕芟矚g這樣因此我們必須習(xí)慣模棱兩可我想所有習(xí)慣模棱兩可的CEO都是成功的而我自己就十分喜歡這種感覺第3集E03Whenacompanygetslarger,youguysneedtolearnthis,asthefounderastheCEOyouhavetolearnnewthings.ManyofthenewthingsyouhavetolearnhavetodowithI'mbuildingproductsatfirstandI'vejusttalkedtoyouaboutbuildingproducts.Soonyouwillbetalkingaboutandlearningaboutbuildingcompanies.Andbuildingcompaniesmeansthingsthataresoftandhardtoexplain.Buildingacompanywithaculturelikeme.Howisthecultureofonecompanydifferentfromthecultureofanother.Anywhyisitthatthisparticularcompanycultureisbetterforyourcompanyandnotforanother.Sothecultureofacompanyisimportanttofindout.Toputyourarmsaroundandtocreateanddevelop.Howdoyouorganize,wewerejusttalkingdownherewithoneoftheguysareyoufunctionallyorganized,areorganizedinbusinessunits.DealwithmultipleproductsandmultiplegeographiesandmultipleCustomers.Thatthecompanybuildingprocess.It'smechanical,it'sinterestinglotsoftrialanderror.It'sorganic,peoplematter,personalitiesmatterandifyouguysareinterestedintalkingaboutthat,I'mhappytotalkaboutthataswell.Iwouldsayprobablythemostimportantthingabovethatistorealizewhenyouarebuildingacompany,buildingaproductskillmatters.Intellectmatters,trainingmattersbutit'snotenough.Thepartofitthatisimportanttorealizeaboutbuildingcompaniesthatitisachallengingandpainfulandoftenattimeanextraordinarilyscarythingtodo.Sounlessyouhavepassion,unlessyouhavelovetheprocessofbuildingthecompanyandwhatyouaretryingtodoit'sgoingtobeincrediblychallenging.E03隨著公司規(guī)模逐漸擴(kuò)大你需要知道作為創(chuàng)始人作為CEO你需要學(xué)習(xí)新的知識你最先需要學(xué)習(xí)的知識正如我所說一開始我們在研發(fā)產(chǎn)品因此你要學(xué)的首先是研發(fā)產(chǎn)品不久你就要學(xué)習(xí)怎樣組建公司組建公司需要軟實(shí)力也需要硬實(shí)力像我一樣組建一個有文化氛圍的公司不同公司之間的企業(yè)文化有何區(qū)別?為什么某種特定的企業(yè)文化對你的公司有效而對別的公司沒有效果因此一個公司的文化是十分重要的伸開你的雙臂來創(chuàng)造和發(fā)展你怎樣組織我們剛才剛剛和一個人討論你的組織方式是否有效是否在商業(yè)上有限是否與不同的產(chǎn)品不同的圖像和不同的消費(fèi)者打交道這是創(chuàng)建公司的整個過程是一種機(jī)械的過程十分有趣要不斷嘗試它是有機(jī)的人員很重要性格也很重要如果大家想聽這方面內(nèi)容我也可以講講我想或許當(dāng)你開始組建公司的時候最重要的是意識到這些東西很重要才智很重要培訓(xùn)很重要但這都是不夠的關(guān)于創(chuàng)建一個公司最重要的是需要意識到這是一個充滿挑戰(zhàn)艱辛異常的過程除非你有激情除非你真心喜歡組建公司的過程除非你熱愛你的事業(yè)這個過程將會艱苦卓絕第1集E01Somepeoplecallitvision.VisionisanawfullybigwordtomebecauseIbelieve,firstofallvisionmatters.LetmetellyouthatvisionmattersandIhopeyouunderstandthatinasecond.ButIliketousetheworkperspectivebecauseitmakesitpossibleforanyonetohaveone.Whenyousayvisionitfeellikeonlyafewselectivevisionariesoftheworldcanhaveone.Buteveryonehasaperspectiveandthatinfactisallvisionmeans.Butyouseetheworldinawaythatiseitherdifferentorotherwiseokthansomebodyelse.Youseeopportunitiesthatyoubelieveareparticularlyimportanttogoanaddress.Thatyoucanaddressinaparticularway.Soperspective,ourperspectiveatthetimethisis1993.YouguyswillnotrememberthisbutthePCwasWindows3.1.CDromwasabouttobeintroduced,therewerenoPC'swithnetworks.Wirelesstechnology,ifsomebodysaidradiothewordthatwouldcometomindwouldbeFMradio.Sowirelesstechnologydidnotexist.Thefastestmicroprocessorintheworldwasa66MHZ46DX2andIdon'tthinkanyofyouwouldevenuseityourtennisshoestodayandwewouldrunourcomputerswiththem.ThePCwasbecomingusedfordesktoporofficeanimation.Ourperspectivewasthatthisparticulardevicewasgoingtobeuniqueinthesensethatishastheabilitytorunprograms.Whatifwegaveitthebenefitofrunning3Dgraphicsprograms.Sothatyoucouldexplorenewworlds,playgamesyouknowplaygames.Sowestartedacompanyandthebusinessplanbasicallyreadsomethinglikethis.Wearegoingtotaketechnologythatwasavailableinonlythemostexpensiveworkstations.Wearegoingtotryandmakeit,reinventthetechnologymakeitinexpensive.Thecureappwasvideogames.SoItookthisideatoSan-herRowandtheytoldmetherewasnovideogamemarket.Peopledon'tstartcompaniestoplaygames.Myparents,IremembercallingmymumandtellingherIwasgoingtostartthiscompanyandshesaidwhatdoyouguysdo.Isaidwebuildthesethingscalled3Dgraphicschipsandpeoplewillusethentoplaygames.Shesaidwhydon'tyougogetajob.Ofcoursegameswaswebelievedgoingtobeaverylargepartofthemarketplace.Wehadperspectiveforveryobviousreasons.Wegrewupinthevideogamegeneration,Iwasthevideogamegeneration,Iwasthebeginningofthevideogamegeneration.SotheentertainmentvalueofcomputergameswasveryobvioustomeandIcouldimaginehowitcouldbeaverylargemarketandaverylargeindustry.Foralotofthepeoplethatwereolderthatsensibilitydidn'texist.SonoticeIjustdescribedtoyouperspectiveabouttheworldthatwehadthatisapparentlyobviouslynowtruebecausegamesisnowtheworld'slargestdigitalmediaindustrytoday.Itisapparentlytrueyetatthetimeourcommonsensewasunique.Nobodywouldhavecreatedthetechnologynobodywouldhavecreatedacompanywiththesolepurposeofbuildingtechnologytomakevideosgamespossiblesothatwasoutperspective.E01一些人將之稱作看法我認(rèn)為看法是一個很大的詞因?yàn)槭紫人种匾襾砀嬖V大家看法十分重要我希望大家一會就能明白但是我喜歡用視角這個詞因?yàn)槊總€人都可以擁有自己的視角當(dāng)你說看法我感覺似乎只有少數(shù)人能有自己的見解但是每個人都有自己的視角實(shí)際上這就是見解的全部意義但是你總是以一種與他人不同的方式看待世界你可以看到那些對你尤其重要的機(jī)會你可以用一種特殊的方式處理因此視角這是我們1993年的視角大家或許已經(jīng)不記得這個但那時電腦是Windows3.1那時電腦還沒有網(wǎng)絡(luò)和無線網(wǎng)科技當(dāng)人們說到收音機(jī)一詞時人們想到的是調(diào)頻廣播無線科技還不存在全世界最快的微處理器是66MHZ46DX2我不認(rèn)為今天大家還會在自己的網(wǎng)球鞋里安裝它我們那時用它來運(yùn)行電腦這些個人電腦成了廢物或者辦公室娛樂的工具我們的看法是這個設(shè)備是獨(dú)特的它能運(yùn)行程序如果我們使它能夠運(yùn)行3D程序呢?這樣我們就可以探索新世界玩新的游戲于是我們開了一家公司這就是我們的商業(yè)計劃我們打算采用可能的科技僅僅應(yīng)用于最昂貴的工作站我們會試著做好對這項(xiàng)科技進(jìn)行改造使它不那么昂貴我們的應(yīng)用是電子游戲因此我產(chǎn)生了這個想法但是他們告訴我電子游戲沒有市場人們不會成立公司來玩游戲我給我母親打電話告訴她我要成立這家公司她問我你們主要做什么?我說我們制造3D圖像芯片人們可以用它們來玩游戲她對我說你為什么不去找工作當(dāng)然我們一直堅信游戲市場十分廣闊我們的視角來自于顯而易見的原因我們是伴著電子游戲長大的一代我是電子游戲一代我生長在電子游戲一代的初期因此電腦游戲的價值對我來說顯而易見我能想象到它將會成為一個巨大的市場和產(chǎn)業(yè)但是對很多年齡更大的人來說這種可能性是不存在的我剛才給大家描述了我們對于世界的看法這種視角現(xiàn)在當(dāng)然是正確的因?yàn)橛螒蚴乾F(xiàn)在最大的數(shù)字媒體產(chǎn)業(yè)這顯而易見是正確的但是那時我們的視角是獨(dú)特的沒人會發(fā)明這項(xiàng)科技沒人會開創(chuàng)一家公司唯一的目的是用科技使電子游戲成為可能這就是我們的視角第2集E02Shortlyafterwewerestarted3DgraphicsforPCsandconsumer3Dgraphicsbecamethehottestthing.SoeveryoneinSiliconeValleywasstartinga3Dgraphicscompany.Wewerein1993theonlyconsumer3Dgraphicscompanyintheworld,Siliconegraphicsupthestreetwastheprofessional3Dgraphicscompany.bytheendofacoupleofyearsorso1995therewereprobably50-70start-upsdoingexactlythesamethingweweretryingtodo.Overtimewecompetedwithabout200companiesandNvidiatodayistheonlysurvivingcomputergraphicscompanyintheworld.Thequestionissothenwhathappened.Competitionisintenseeverybodyhassmartpeople,everybodyhasmoney.WecompetedwithIBM,wecompetedwithHP,wecompetedwithSiliconeGraphics,withSony,3Deffects,S3,SeriesLogic,big,small,internationalandlocal.Wecompetedwithcompaniesallovertheworld.Sothequestioniswhathappened.Iwouldargue300companiesarmedwiththesametechnology,armedwiththesamepeople,thecompanythatwinsandIwillsaytheyallexecute.Andtheydidwith300companiesyouknow50%ofthenweregoingtoexecuteasanygivenpointintime.Thequestionishowdoesonesurvive.WellIthinkthatitmatterstohaveperspectiveandletmegiveyousomeexamples.Ialwaysbelievedthatyouneedtounderstandwhyyourbusinesswork.Whatistheessenceofyourbusinesswhatmakesitwork.Nowthefoundationofmybusinessatitscoreissemi-conductortechnology.HereinSiliconeValleyweusuallyliketorefertosemiconductortechnologyasMoore'sLaw.Moore'sLawisnotsomuchaphysicallawasit'salawofcompetition.Itisalawofchallengingengineers,it'salawalmostofsettingpace.Moore'sLawapproximatelygiveyoutwicetheperformanceeveryyearortwo.Sounderstandingthefundamentalingredientofourbusinessimprovesbyafactoroftwoeveryyearandsimultaneouslyreducesincostbythefactoroftwoeveryyear.Thequestioniswhatmakesasurvivablebusiness.Soourfirstperspectivewasthat3Dgraphicswasinsatiable.ThatifImadesomethingtwiceasgoodeveryyearevenifthecustomerneveraskedforit,evenifthecustomertoldusitwastooexpensive.Evenifthecustomerwhenyouwenttofloatthatproductspecificationtothemtoldyoutheywerenotinterested,andthatwasthecase.ItookourproductspectoIBMandGatewaytheyalltoldmeitwastoomuchmoney.Youarewelloutsideoftheboundariesofwhattheyarewillingtopayfor.Whenyourcustomersalltellyounottodosomethingthequestionisthenwhatdoyoudo.Inourcasebecausewehadthisuniqueperspectivethat3DgraphicswasinsatiableandMoore'sLawwasourfriendthereforeweshouldmakeourgraphicsprocessorstwiceasgoodeveryyear.Soforthefirst5yearsofthecompanywejustturnedoffourblinderandsaidwearegoingtoignorecustomers.Nowwhichoneofyouguysaregoingtogothroughyourmarketingcoursesandlessonthatitteachesyouisignoreyourcustomers.Wellsometimesyouhavetoignoreyourcustomersandthereasonforthatistheydon'tknowthenatureofyourbusiness.Andwhiletheindustryisbeencreatedbeforethereiscommonsenseabouttherulesofthatbusinessthereisnowaytheycanpossiblyknow.SoItookthelastfewmilliondollarsofthecompaniesmoneyandbuiltachipthatiswaytoowaytoobig.E02就在我們?yōu)閭€人電腦發(fā)明了3D圖像后消費(fèi)者3D圖像成為了最熱門的產(chǎn)品因此硅谷中的3D圖像公司開始層出不窮1993年我們是全球唯一一家消費(fèi)者3D圖像公司硅谷圖像屬于專業(yè)的3D圖像公司幾年之后到1995年或許有50-70家公司從事同樣的行業(yè)在這段時間中我們和200多家公司競爭Nvidia今天還是世界唯一的電腦圖像公司因此問題是發(fā)生了什么?競爭十分激烈大家都有人才大家都有錢我們能和IBM競爭和惠普競爭和西斯科競爭和索尼和3D效果和來自世界各地大大小小的公司競爭我們和全球的公司競爭因此問題就是發(fā)生了什么我可以說有300家公司的科技人才和設(shè)備都完全相同這些公司最后都會消失一共有300多家公司其中一半在任何時候都有可能消失問題是應(yīng)該如何生存我認(rèn)為擁有自己的視角很重要我給大家舉幾個例子我一直相信你需要明白為什么你的公司能夠運(yùn)行你的企業(yè)的核心是什么我的企業(yè)的核心就是半導(dǎo)體科技在硅谷我們通常將半導(dǎo)體科技叫做穆爾定律穆爾定律不只是一條物理定律它是一條競爭定律它有與工程師的挑戰(zhàn)有關(guān)它幾乎為我們定下了步調(diào)穆爾定律能夠使你的表現(xiàn)每年增長兩倍因此我們的企業(yè)的構(gòu)成要素每年增長兩個系數(shù)同時開銷也減少兩個系數(shù)問題是一個企業(yè)存活下來的關(guān)鍵是什么我們的第一個視角是3D圖像是需求很大的如果我每年將產(chǎn)品的質(zhì)量翻倍即便消費(fèi)者并沒有這樣要求即便消費(fèi)者告訴我們這樣價錢太過昂貴即便當(dāng)你給消費(fèi)者寄去樣本時他們告訴你他們對此并不感興趣我將我們的產(chǎn)品送到IBM和Gateway時情況就是這樣它們都告訴我我們的價錢太高了你已經(jīng)遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過了他們愿意出價的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)了當(dāng)所有的消費(fèi)者都告訴你不要做一件事的時候問題就是你該怎么做在我們的例子中由于我們擁有獨(dú)特的視角3D圖像市場需求大我們也嚴(yán)格遵守穆爾定律因此我們應(yīng)該使我們的圖像處理器的質(zhì)量每年提高兩倍因此在公司成立的前五年我們拋卻所有的障礙說我們要完全忽略我們的顧客我想現(xiàn)在在經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)課上沒有一本教材教大家要忽略你的消費(fèi)者有時你需要忽略你的消費(fèi)者這里的原因是他們并不知道商業(yè)的本質(zhì)在關(guān)于這行的基本規(guī)則出現(xiàn)之前我們就開啟了一個全新的商業(yè)領(lǐng)域所以他們不可能知道這其中的規(guī)則因此我用公司的最后幾百萬美元建造了一個芯片但是它太大了第3集E03Whenacompanygetslarger,youguysneedtolearnthis,asthefounderastheCEOyouhavetolearnnewthings.ManyofthenewthingsyouhavetolearnhavetodowithI'mbuildingproductsatfirstandI'vejusttalkedtoyouaboutbuildingproducts.Soonyouwillbetalkingaboutandlearningaboutbuildingcompanies.Andbuildingcompaniesmeansthingsthatare