230811-食品飲料行業(yè)2023年中報業(yè)績前瞻-飲料篇

食品飲料行業(yè)2023年中報業(yè)績前瞻——飲料篇323H1E凈利潤同比增速...23H1E凈利潤同比增速... 飲料行業(yè)代表企業(yè)23H1預(yù)計業(yè)績增速情況23H1E營收同比增速..進入Q2，消費復(fù)蘇強度減弱進入Q2，消費復(fù)蘇強度減弱0數(shù)據(jù)來源：國家統(tǒng)計局2020-2023H1社會消費品零售總額：當月同比（%）4“五一”假期旅游收入增長不及出游人次增長“五一”假期旅游收入增長不及出游人次增長“五一”假期國內(nèi)旅游收入及人均消費數(shù)據(jù)來源：文化和旅游部，《2023年五一出游數(shù)據(jù)報告》注：2019年國內(nèi)旅游收入數(shù)據(jù)按可比口徑進行調(diào)整5必選類消費已基本恢復(fù)，可選類消費恢復(fù)空間仍較大必選類消費已基本恢復(fù)，可選類消費恢復(fù)空間仍較大數(shù)據(jù)來源：國家統(tǒng)計局6限額以上企業(yè)不同類別消費品銷售同比增速可選類消費品必選類消費品2022年7月-2023年6月全國白酒產(chǎn)量及增長情況-3.2%-6.4%-4.5%-8.6%-8.5%-3.7%-4.5%-8.6%-8.5%-13.3%-12.3%-13.3%-14.7%-29.2%-28.1%數(shù)據(jù)來源：中商產(chǎn)業(yè)研究增長率（%）7。23Q123Q2E20.6%21.0%15.9%13.0%15.7%18.0%29.9%50.2%27.0%23H1E20.8%12.4%15.4%24.0%21.7%高端酒回款動銷保持穩(wěn)健，23H1預(yù)計實現(xiàn)雙位數(shù)增長。23Q123Q2E20.6%21.0%15.9%13.0%15.7%18.0%29.9%50.2%27.0%23H1E20.8%12.4%15.4%24.0%21.7%高端酒回款動銷保持穩(wěn)健，23H1預(yù)計實現(xiàn)雙位數(shù)增長營收23Q123Q2E23H1E387.6308.2695.8311.4463.267.6126.863.3190.176.165.8凈利潤23Q123Q2E23H1E207.9151.9359.848.357.722.580.248.219.667.833.770.9數(shù)據(jù)來源：Wind，公司公告，華創(chuàng)證券預(yù)測注：紅色斜體字代表公司已披露上半年經(jīng)營數(shù)據(jù)或中報營收23Q123Q2E20.0%21.7%13.0%11.0%15.5%15.0%20.4%31.8%20.6%23.0%白酒板塊2023上半年業(yè)績前瞻（部分）白酒行業(yè)貴州茅臺五糧液洋河股份山西汾酒瀘州老窖凈利潤23H1E23H1E20.8%15.1%16.3%35.2%28.1%923Q2E25.2%29.2%-56.0%508.9%高端酒回款動銷保持穩(wěn)健，23H1預(yù)計實現(xiàn)雙位數(shù)增長923Q2E25.2%29.2%-56.0%508.9%高端酒回款動銷保持穩(wěn)健，23H1預(yù)計實現(xiàn)雙位數(shù)增長23Q2E23Q2E30.6%28.5%12.68.020.52.2%-26.4%1.60.42.023Q124.8%27.3%7.3%21.3%-39.7%白酒板塊2023上半年業(yè)績前瞻（部分）白酒行業(yè)古井貢酒今世緣舍得酒業(yè)口子窖水井坊數(shù)據(jù)來源：Wind，公司公告，華創(chuàng)證券預(yù)測注：紅色斜體字代表公司已披露上半年經(jīng)營數(shù)據(jù)或中報38.08.523Q2E23Q2E21.759.715.36.715.323H1E23H1E36.1%26.7%15.6%14.7%-45.2%26.6%20.8%26.6%18.2%20.9%18.2%20.8%17.4%13.3%9.1%17.4%13.3%11.3%11.7%12.4%數(shù)據(jù)來源：Wind，公司公告，12.4%數(shù)據(jù)來源：Wind，公司公告，華創(chuàng)證券預(yù)測21.6%19.4% 19.4% 13.3%12.2%31.3%16.3%14.4%14.4%15.1%15.1%22.0%24.8%21.7%-4.7%39.8%30.9%28.1%17.1%2019H12020H12021H12022數(shù)據(jù)來源：Wind，公司公告，華創(chuàng)證券預(yù)測25.2%22.0%24.8%21.7%-4.7%39.8%30.9%28.1%17.1%2019H12020H12021H12022數(shù)據(jù)來源：Wind，公司公告，華創(chuàng)證券預(yù)測25.2%31.2%250100.0%預(yù)計青花汾酒全系列同比增長35%以上。腰部產(chǎn)品老白汾、巴拿馬受益于大眾消費與宴席回補，預(yù)增速25%以上費用端，公司提升清香消費群體培育深度，持續(xù)投放增強品牌知名度，產(chǎn)品高端化+渠道全國化目標明確35.2%41.5%2019H12020H12021H12022H12分產(chǎn)品看，玻汾配額前置出貨加快，貢獻增量，獻禮版玻汾積極鋪市，產(chǎn)品提價趨勢明顯。受益于省內(nèi)消費需求推動，青花上半年高增勢頭不減，帶動產(chǎn)品結(jié)構(gòu)持續(xù)優(yōu)化，117.5%26.3%33.1%數(shù)據(jù)來源：Wind，公司公告，華創(chuàng)證券預(yù)測0026.5%22.3%24.0%7.8%75.5%26.5%22.3%24.0%7.8%75.5%50.0%50.0%0.0%-50.0%-100.0%-10>4.8%-3.2%21.7%21.8%2019H12020H12021H1202211.5%4.8%-3.2%21.7%21.8%2019H12020H12021H1202211.5%洋河股份：重點發(fā)力宴席消費，渠道健康度明顯提升2019H1-2023H1E洋河股份營收及其增速2019H1數(shù)據(jù)來源：Wind，公司公告，華創(chuàng)證券預(yù)測10.0%15.8%-16.1%15.4%15.4%6.3%30.9%29.4%28.5%21.2%25.2%20.7%-4.7%-4.9%30.9%29.4%28.5%21.2%25.2%20.7%-4.7%-4.9%2019H1-2023H1E今世緣營收及其增速32.2%2019H12020H12021H12019H12020H12021H1數(shù)據(jù)來源：Wind，公司公告，華創(chuàng)證券預(yù)測34.5%39.9%36.1%-17.9%2019H12020H12021H120239.2%古井貢酒：結(jié)構(gòu)升級費用優(yōu)化，凈利率有望持續(xù)提升34.5%39.9%36.1%-17.9%2019H12020H12021H120239.2%古井貢酒：結(jié)構(gòu)升級費用優(yōu)化，凈利率有望持續(xù)提升2019H1-2023H1E古井貢酒營收及其增速2019H1-2023H1E古井貢酒凈利潤及其增速數(shù)據(jù)來源：Wind，公司公告，華創(chuàng)證券預(yù)測25.2%25.2%-7.8%-7.8%27.0%27.0%28.5%28.5%23.6%23.6%頭部企業(yè)渠道韌性及業(yè)績確定性較強，下半年旺季，頭部企業(yè)渠道韌性及業(yè)績確定性較強，下半年旺季，需求改善方向明確>整體來看，高端和地產(chǎn)酒品牌動銷及回款反饋較好，部分品牌預(yù)計提前完成全年增長目標。高端酒在去年上半年經(jīng)濟環(huán)境中并未有較大幅度影響，整體保持穩(wěn)健，預(yù)計今年全年仍將實現(xiàn)穩(wěn)定增長>放開后二三線城市及鄉(xiāng)鎮(zhèn)的送禮場景預(yù)計火爆，地產(chǎn)酒的消費場景仍將火熱，進一步帶來庫存消化，同時保持全年進度順利推進。尤其是宴席消費場景產(chǎn)品線的高端次高端品牌，如老窖特曲、汾酒目前庫存良性動銷上升趨勢明顯，預(yù)計表現(xiàn)有望超預(yù)期-1.2%7.0%1.6%啤酒板塊：產(chǎn)量增長放緩，行業(yè)高端化仍是主旋律，成本緩和推動利潤提高-1.2%7.0%1.6%啤酒板塊：產(chǎn)量增長放緩，行業(yè)高端化仍是主旋律，成本緩和推動利潤提高數(shù)據(jù)來源：國家統(tǒng)計局20.4%21.1%2023年1-6月啤酒產(chǎn)量23Q2E//-1.7%-13.9%啤酒代表企業(yè)中報業(yè)績前瞻23Q2E//-1.7%-13.9%啤酒代表企業(yè)中報業(yè)績前瞻23Q2E/7.9%6.2%/3.023Q2E/2.85.8啤酒行業(yè)華潤啤酒青島啤酒重慶啤酒燕京啤酒百威亞太數(shù)據(jù)來源：Wind，公司公告，華創(chuàng)證券預(yù)測注：紅色斜體字代表公司已披露上半年經(jīng)營數(shù)據(jù)或中報，華潤使用核心凈利潤，百威單位為美元2023Q1//17.023Q2E23Q2E/19.636.723H1E23H1E22.6%24.7%10.0%7.0%7.2%-7.5%24.1%22.6%% -11.4%12.8%數(shù)據(jù)來源：Wind，公司公告，華創(chuàng)證券預(yù)測106.4%2019H12020H12021H12019H12020H110.0%7.0%7.2%-7.5%24.1%22.6%% -11.4%12.8%數(shù)據(jù)來源：Wind，公司公告，華創(chuàng)證券預(yù)測106.4%2019H12020H12021H12019H12020H12116.6%25.4%12.2%24.9%9.2%5.4%13.5%-5.3%2019H12020H12021H12022H1202216.6%25.4%12.2%24.9%9.2%5.4%13.5%-5.3%2019H12020H12021H12022H1202217.8%30.8%數(shù)據(jù)來源：Wind，公司公告，華創(chuàng)證券預(yù)測2019H12020H12019H1-2023H1E青島啤酒營收及其增速2019H1-308.0%4.0%11.2%6.4%-4.4%14.3%17.7%4.2%數(shù)據(jù)來源：Wind，公司公告，華創(chuàng)證券預(yù)測148.0%2019H12020H12021H12022H1308.0%4.0%11.2%6.4%-4.4%14.3%17.7%4.2%數(shù)據(jù)來源：Wind，公司公告，華創(chuàng)證券預(yù)測148.0%2019H12020H12021H12022H1重慶啤酒：高端化進程領(lǐng)先，營收、凈利潤在高基數(shù)下持續(xù)增長 23>需求呈現(xiàn)復(fù)蘇走弱，產(chǎn)品結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化及推動高端化進程助力龍頭企業(yè)營收平穩(wěn)增長，4-6月規(guī)模以上企業(yè)乳制品產(chǎn)量分別同增奶類生產(chǎn)價格指數(shù)當季值24數(shù)據(jù)來源：國家統(tǒng)計局2425數(shù)據(jù)來源：國家統(tǒng)計局25軟飲板塊：人流物流恢復(fù)及主要原材料價格回落，軟飲板塊：人流物流恢復(fù)及主要原材料價格回落，推動行業(yè)較好復(fù)蘇2023年1-6月飲料產(chǎn)量9.5%8.9%5.0%4.8%0.5%23Q2E////44.3%49.0%乳業(yè)、軟飲代表企業(yè)中報業(yè)績前瞻23Q2E////44.3%49.0%乳業(yè)、軟飲代表企業(yè)中報業(yè)績前瞻23Q2E//30.0%27.2%//5.023Q2E//6.111.123H1E3.8%16.0%27.0%46.數(shù)據(jù)來源：Wind，公司公告，華創(chuàng)證券預(yù)測注：紅色斜體字代表公司已披露上半年經(jīng)營數(shù)據(jù)或中報，蒙牛使用經(jīng)營利潤26乳品、軟飲行業(yè)伊利股份蒙牛乳業(yè)農(nóng)夫山泉東鵬飲料//24.924.923Q2E23Q2E//29.754.629.754.63.8%2019H12020H12021H12022H142.2%3.8%2019H12020H12021H12022H142.2%13.6%5.3%5.3%18.9%18.9%12.3%12.3%5.7%5.7%數(shù)據(jù)來源：Wind，公司公告，華創(chuàng)證券預(yù)測15.2%9.6%15.2%-1.1%2722.3%143.8%15.6%33.3%8.0%16.0%3.9%27.8%-41.8%-5.8%蒙牛乳業(yè)：資源向高端白奶傾斜，在成本壓力減輕下經(jīng)營利潤穩(wěn)步增長22.3%143.8%15.6%33.3%8.0%16.0%3.9%27.8%-41.8