非洲開發(fā)銀行（AFDB）：非洲“三大”經(jīng)濟(jì)體中家庭抵御氣候變化的韌性

WorkingPaperSeries

n°377

Ao?t2023

ELOPM

N入

DEVELOPMENTBANKGROUP

AFRICAN

ANDE

NDEVEPME

HouseholdResiliencetoClimateChangeinthe“BigThree”AfricanEconomies

SulaimanA.Yusuf,AdelekeO.Salami,OlaideA.Akin-Olagunju,

TemitayoA.Adeyemo,andEmmanuelO.Dada

WorkingPaperNo.377

Abstract

Theprecariousnatureofclimatechangeanditsconsequencesontheresilienceofeconomiesrequireexamination.Thisstudyinvestigatedclimatechangeresilienceinthe“bigthree”economiesinAfrica—Egypt,Nigeria,andSouthAfrica—usingcriticalreviewofsecondarydataandhousehold-leveldata.ResultsatthemacrolevelindicatedthatNigeriahadthehighestvulnerabilityscoreofthethreeeconomies.SouthAfricahadthehighestresiliencescore,followedbyEgyptandthenNigeria.Intermsofreadiness,NigeriahadhighernominalandGDP-adjustedscoresuntilabout2015,afterwhichitsreadinessdroppedfarbelowthatofEgyptandSouthAfrica.MacroeconomicanalysisrevealedthatclimatevulnerabilityhadasignificantdampeningeffectonpercapitaGDPinthethreeeconomies.

However,reducinggeneralpricesofgoodsandserviceswithintheeconomyincreasedwelfareandassociatedresiliencebyraisingpercapitaGDPthoughtheeffectneedstobemagnifiedwithsoundeconomicpolicies.AtthehouseholdlevelforNigeria,accesstobasicserviceshadthehighestimpact(1.98)onresiliencecapacity,whileadaptivecapacityhadtheleast(0.06).Overall,themeanresiliencewas0.42,withlessthan20%ofthesampledrespondentshavingahighlevelofresiliencetoclimatechange.Atthemacrolevel,readinessforclimatechangewaslowinallcountries,especiallyinNigeria.Thelowadaptivecapacityatthemacroandhouseholdlevelpointstotheneedtodevelophumanresourcecapacities,improvesafetynetdelivery,andensureeffectiveearlywarningsystems.

ThispaperistheproductoftheVice-PresidencyforEconomicGovernanceandKnowledgeManagement.ItispartofalargereffortbytheAfricanDevelopmentBanktopromoteknowledgeandlearning,shareideas,provideopenaccesstoitsresearch,andmakeacontributiontodevelopmentpolicy.ThepapersfeaturedintheWorkingPaperSeries(WPS)areconsideredtohaveabearingonthemissionofAfDB,itsstrategicobjectivesofInclusiveandGreenGrowth,anditsHigh-5priorityareas:PowerAfrica,FeedAfrica,IndustrializeAfrica,IntegrateAfrica,andImproveLivingConditionsofAfricans.Theauthorsmaybecontactedat

workingpaper@.

RightsandPermissions

Allrightsreserved.

Thetextanddatainthispublicationmaybereproducedwhenthesourceiscited.Reproductionforcommercialpurposesisforbidden.TheWPSdisseminatesthefindingsofworkinprogress,preliminaryresearchresults,anddevelopmentexperienceandlessons,toencouragetheexchangeofideasandinnovativethinkingamongresearchers,developmentpractitioners,policymakers,anddonors.Thefindings,interpretations,andconclusionsexpressedintheBank’sWPSareentirelythoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewoftheAfricanDevelopmentBankGroup,itsBoardofDirectors,orthecountriestheyrepresent.

WorkingPapersareavailableonlineat

/en/documents/publications/working-paper-series/

ProducedbytheMacroeconomicsPolicy,Forecasting,andResearchDepartment

Coordinator

AdelekeO.Salami

Citation:YusufS.A.,A.O.Salami,O.A.Akin-Olagunju,T.A.Adeyemo,andE.O.Dada(2023),HouseholdResiliencetoClimateChangeinthe“BigThree”AfricanEconomies,WorkingPaperSeriesN°377,AfricanDevelopmentBank,Abidjan,C?ted’Ivoire.

HouseholdResiliencetoClimateChangeinthe“BigThree”AfricanEconomies

SulaimanA.Yusuf,AdelekeO.Salami1,OlaideA.Akin-Olagunju,TemitayoA.Adeyemo,andEmmanuelO.Dada

JELClassification:Q50.Q54.

Keywords:Climatechange,resilience,vulnerability,adaptivecapacity

1AfricanDevelopmentBank;allotherauthorsareoftheDepartmentofAgriculturalEconomics,UniversityofIbadan,Nigeria

2

1Background

Climatechangereferstoachangeinthestateoftheclimatethatcanbeidentified(e.g.,viastatisticaltests)bychangesinthemeanand/orthevariabilityofitspropertiesandthatpersistsforanextendedperiod,typicallydecadesorlonger.Climatechangemaybeduetonaturalinternalprocessesorexternalforcessuchasmodulationsofthesolarcycles,volcaniceruptions,orpersistentenvironmentalchangesinthecompositionoftheatmosphereorinlanduse(IPCC,2014).TheUnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChange(UNFCCC)definesclimatechangeas“thatwhichisattributeddirectlyorindirectlytohumanactivitythataltersthecompositionoftheglobalatmosphereandwhichisinadditiontonaturalclimatevariabilityobservedovercomparabletimeperiods.”TheUNFCCCthusmakesadistinctionbetweenclimatechangeattributabletohumanactivitiesalteringtheatmosphericcompositionandclimatevariabilityattributabletonaturalcauses(UN,1992).

Oneofthekeycausesofclimatechangeisgreenhousegas(GHG)2emissions.AccordingtotheCarbonDisclosureProject(CDP,2020),AfricacontributesthesmallestportionofglobalGHGemissions,atonly3.8%—comparedwithmoreadvancedindustrialeconomiessuchasChina,at23%,theUnitedStates(19%),andtheEuropeanUnion(13%).Nevertheless,thecontinentisvulnerabletoclimatechangecharacterizedbyextremeheat,precipitationchange,aridity,andsealevelrise.Thesechangesaffectwaterresources,agriculturalproduction,andtheoceanandsavannahecosystems.CoastalpopulationsandinfrastructurearebothhighlyvulnerabletotheeffectsofGHGemissions.TheforegoingconsequencesaretheresultofaggregateglobalGHGemissionscombinedwithrisingGHGoutflowsinAfrica.

Africa’saggregateCO2emissionreachedabout48billionmetrictonsbetween1884and2020,withworldemissionstotalingalmost1.7trillionmetrictonsfromthebeginningoftheindustrialrevolutionin1750until2020.SouthAfrica,Egypt,Algeria,Nigeria,andLibyawerethefivecountriesemitting(indescendingorder)themostGHGintheregion(IPCC,2022).Threeofthesecountries—Nigeria,SouthAfrica,andEgypt—arethebiggesteconomiesintheregion,whichportendscontinuedincreasesintheirGHGemissions.Africa’stotalannualmethaneemissionsfromthefourareasresponsibleforthemostsignificantanthropogeniccontributionsofmethaneglobally(i.e.,municipalsolidwaste,wastewater,coal,andoilandgas)amountto4.7Mt(160MtCO2e).ThehighestemissionsarefromEgypt,atmorethan1.05MtofCH4andapproximatelyone-fifthofAfrica’stotalemissions(AfDB,2022a).Figure1showscountrytotalsforNigeria,Egypt,andSouthAfricaandtheirshareofAfrica’stotalanthropogenicgasemission,whileTable1showssectoralvalues(excludinglivestock,inallcases).

2Greenhousegases(GHG),accordingtoUnitedStateEnvironmentalProtectionAgency,aregasesthattrapheatintheatmosphere.Theylargelyconsistofcarbondioxide(CO2),methane(CH4),nitrousoxide(N2O),andfluorinatedgases(chlorofluorocarbons,hydrofluorocarbons,andhalons).

3

Figure1.Country-leveltotalmethaneemissionsandsharesofAfrica’stotalmethaneemissions

MtCH4

1.2

1

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0

%

25

20

15

10

5

0

Nigeria

Egypt

SouthAfrica

TotalannualCH4emission(MtCH4)

Shareofcontinent'stotalemisssion(%)

Source:AfDB(2022a).

Table1.Emissionestimatesbycountryandsector(tCH4)

Municipalsolid

waste

Wastewater

Coal

Oilandgas

Total

Nigeria

240154.7

43494.1

0

587541

871189.9

SouthAfrica

319802.1

112842.6

54707

3723

491074.7

Egypt

265220.5

423042.2

0

391472

1079734.7

Source:AfDB(2022a).

Inallthreecountries,theenergysectoraccountsforthelargest—andrising—shareofGHGemissions,withupwardtrends.SouthAfricahasthelargestGHGfromthissectorbecauseofitsrelianceoncoalforelectricitygeneration(Qu,2022).Egyptalsogeneratesmostofitselectricityfromfossilfuel(mostlygas)butitisgraduallymakingcommitmentstorenewableenergyoptions(EMBER,2022;ITA,2022).Nigeriareliesmostlyongasandhydroelectricityasitsenergysources.

Changesinclimaticconditionshavegeneratedvariouseffectsinmanyglobalsystems,includingagriculture,food,health,environment,andtheagri-foodsystem.Theimpactofclimatechangehasbeendocumentedtoincludeincreasesinsoilandairtemperature,flooding,increaseddesertification,oceanflows,sealevels,andheatwaves,amongmanyothereffectsthathaveshockedtheglobalsystem(GCA,2021).ClimatechangeposesthreatstoeconomicactivitiesandlivelihoodsinAfricabecauseoftheheavydependenceofthecontinent’seconomiesonthefunctioningoftheecosystemandhowwellitreboundsafterchallenges(AfDB,2022b).Climateresilienceisaboutensuringthatthenaturalassetsuponwhichlivelihoodsdependarewelltakencareofandnotdegradedbyeconomicproductionandconsumptionactivities.

4

Resiliencereferstothecapacityofasystem(social,economic,andenvironmental)tocopewithahazardouseventortrendordisturbance,respondingorreorganizinginwaysthatmaintainitsessentialfunction,identity,andstructurewhilesustainingitscapacityforadaptation,learning,andtransformation(IPCC,2014).Itcouldalsobedescribedastheabilityofindividuals,households,communities,cities,institutions,systems,andsocietiestoprevent,anticipate,absorb,adapt,andtransformpositively,efficiently,andeffectivelywhenfacedwithawiderangeofrisks,whilemaintaininganacceptableleveloffunctioning,withoutcompromisinglong-termprospectsforsustainabledevelopment,peaceandsecurity,humanrights,andwell-beingforall(FAOetal.,2021)Thus,developingaresilientsystemisimportantinthereorderingofsocietiesintheeventofshock.Developingresiliencetoclimatechangeisessential,giventheinevitableglobalclimatechange.TherequirementforAfricancountriestocriticallyevaluatetheextenttowhichagri-foodsystemsandtheeconomyareabletowithstandchangesduetoclimatevariabilitythusinformsthisstudy.

Africanagricultureisstilllargelyrainfedanddependentonthenaturalenvironment.Thus,variabilityinenvironmentalfactorsmayhavefar-reachingeffectsontheagriculturalsystem,ontheonehand,andonthelivelihoodandconsumptionsystems,ontheotherhand.However,theagriculturalsectorstillactsasabufferformanyAfricancountriesandhasbeenthemainstayoftheeconomy.

GiventhecontributionofthetopthreeAfricaeconomiestoGHGemissionsandtheirpossibleimplicationsforclimatechangeandoutcomes,itisessentialtounderstandthephenomenonofclimatechangeinthebigthreeeconomiesaswellastheseeconomies’climatechangeresilience.Thisstudyaimstoexploretheextenttowhichtheseeconomieshavebuiltresiliencetoclimatechangewithintheirsystemsandtheeffectofthatonhouseholdoutcomes.

2LiteratureReview

2.1Climateresilience

2.1.1Theoreticalreview

ResiliencetheorymayhavefirstbeenproposedinHolling(1973),whichpositedthatresilienceisthefunctionofasystembeingabletoreturntoequilibriumafterexperiencingashock.AseriesofchangesinthewayeconomiesworkasrelatedtotheecosystembroughtaboutamodificationofHolling’stheoryaspresentedintheworksofBahaduretal.(2013)andLedesma(2014).Theirviewspositresilienceasthe“abilityofasystemtocopewithashockorstressor;withoutlosingitsequilibrium;whilemaintainingitsfunctionandstructure.”Thissuggeststhatresilienceisnotastaticphenomenonbutratherafunctionofthecapacityofasystemtomovefromonestatetotheotheroveraperiodoftime.Thisledtothedevelopmentoftwomajorconceptsintheresilienceliterature:panarchyandadaptivecycle.

Thepanarchytheorydefinesanonlinearsystemthatgoesthroughvariousstagesofchangeinabidtomaintainitsequilibrium.Theprocessinvolvesvariousinteractionsofunitswithinthe

5

systeminacontinuouscycle,knownastheadaptivecycle.Theaimoftheseinteractionsandcyclesisforthesystemtoachievesomeformofstability.Therearefourstagesintheadaptivecycle,namely,exploitation,conservation,release,andre-organization.

Intheexploitationstage,thesystemseekstoexpanditsfrontiersasmanifestedingrowthusingtechnologyandavailableresources.Theconservationstagereflectsacycleofresourcebuildupwithhighefficiencywithinthesystem.Inthisstage,thereishighrigidityasthesystemseemstohavebecomespecialized.However,thereleasestageintroducesashocktothesystem,duelargelytotheeffectsofcompetingforcesonavailableresources.Thisleadstoasharpdisequilibriuminthesystemandlarge-scaleexposuretovulnerabilities.Thereorganizationstageisdependentontheextenttowhichthesystemhasbeenabletobuildresilienceandthusreturntoitsoriginalstateofequilibriumoradesiredstateofcalm.

2.1.2Methodologicalreview

Climatechangeadaptationhasgarneredhugediscussioninliterature,withvariousattemptsatquantifyingtheextenttowhichsystemsandhouseholdsareeithervulnerableorresilient.However,measuringresilienceisnotonlytargetedatclimateshock;estimationmethodscanbeexploredwithrespecttovariousshocksaffectinghumansystems.Oneofthemostbasicmeasuresistheuseofcost-benefitanalysis.Inmanycases,cost-benefitanalysishashelpeddevelopinterventionstoreducetheeffectsofhumanactivitiesinclimatevariability(Lietal.,2015).Disability-adjustedlifeyearanalysis(DALY)hasalsobeenexploredasameansofestimatingtheextentofvulnerabilitytoclimatechangeandadaptability.Thishealthmeasureisanimportantsocialassessmentofclimatechangeandvariability(Sulseretal.,2021).Thechangesinlivelihoodoutcomeshavealsobeenpositedasmeasuresofresiliencetoshocks,sothatpositiveoutcomesareassociatedwiththesystemsorunitsbeingclassifiedasresilient.Scottetal.(2014)foundthatpovertyoutcomesarerelatedtotheeventsofshocks.Hence,householdsbelowthepovertythresholdweresaidtobevulnerable.

Specificmeasuresofresiliencehaveimprovedtheuseofvariousindicatorsofhowasystemisabletowithstandtheeffectsofshocksandstressors.Perhapsthemostpopularonehasbeenprincipalcomponentanalysis(PCA),whichBoka(2017)usedtoestimateresiliencetoclimatechange.ThefirstattemptbytheFoodandAgriculturalOrganizationtoestimateresiliencealsousedthistechnique.TheFAO’sResilienceIndexMeasurementI(RIMA-I)aggregatedindicatorsofthepillarsofresilienceusingPCAandwasthusabletospecifytheextentofresilienceofthesystemaswellasthecontributionofeachpillartotheoverallindex.Thishasbeenappliedindifferentcountriesinsub-SaharanAfrica,SoutheastAsia,andLatinAmerica(FAO,2016).

Otheraggregationtoolsusedinresilienceincludethefuzzysetapproach(Olatunjietal.,2023),whichfollowsthemathematicalprocessofplacingunitsonacontinuumofachievementsofresilience.Aresiliencecompositeindex(RCI),estimatedasthemeandistancefromareferencepoint,wasalsousedinthestudyofOdozietal.(2022),inNigeria.Leandroetal.(2020)estimated

6

afloodresilienceindex(FRI)inMunich,toidentifyareaswithhighestprobabilityofbeingaffectedbyfloodingaswellasthosewithmoreresilience.

Inthisstudy,weexaminedresiliencebyadaptingtheFAO’supgradedResilienceIndexMeasurementApproachII(RIMAII).InRIMAII,attemptsweremadetoincludeboththeaggregationofthepillarsofresilienceaswellastheinteractionofthedimensionsonshockvariablesandoutcomes.Theuseofastructuralequationmodelmakesitpossibletodevelopapathdiagramthatclearlystatestheinteractionsamongthevariablesand,thus,pointoutareasofpolicyinterventions.

3.0SomestylizedfactsofAfrica’sbigthreeeconomies

3.1ClimatechangephenomenainAfrica’sbigthreeeconomies

Nigeria

FloodshavebeenarecurrentweatherelementinNigeria,affectinglivesandlivelihoodsespeciallyinlow-lyingareasclosetobodiesofwater(Figures2aand2b).Therecentfloodinginthe2022rainyseasondisplacedmanypeopleanddisruptedeconomicactivitiesindifferentpartsofthecountry,leadingtolossofmeansoflivelihoodandworseningcitizens’alreadydireeconomicsituation.Farmlands,infrastructure,andtradingactivitieswereseverelyaffected,withnegativeconsequencesonhealthandtheenvironment.Coastalareasofthecountryhavealsobeenaffectedbycoastalerosion,withaprojectedlossofaverylargeportionofthelandintheNigerDeltaforevery1-meterriseinsealevel(WorldBank,2021b).DesertificationfromthecumulativeeffectofdeforestationandclimatechangeisalsoanexistentialthreattoNigeriabecauseithasbeenobservedtobemovingsouthwards.

Differentadaptationstrategiesareneededtocombattheseevents.Thereisaneedforearlywarningsystemsbackedbyefficientweatherforecasts,properurbanandinfrastructureplanning,andconstructionoflargedrainagesandwaterchannels,togetherwithproperorientationofthepopulaceontheimportanceofsanitationandclearingofdrainages.People’sresiliencecouldalsobeenhancedthroughdiversifiedlivelihoodoptions.Inthecoastalareas,importantattentionshouldbepaidtoerectingbarriersandembankmentsandraisingroutes,roads,andrails;afforestationandsustainablelandmanagementshouldbepromotedinareaspronetodesertification,whiletheintroductionofdrought-tolerantvarietiesandirrigationagricultureshouldbethetargetsinareaspronetodroughtconditions.

7

Figures2aand2b.Climatechange–inducedhazardsinNigeria(1980–2020)

Source:WorldBank(ClimateChangeKnowledgePortal–Nigeria;2021a).

Egypt

DesertconditionsandthoseoftheNileareveryimportantinEgypt’seconomy.IntenseagriculturalactivitiesarefoundonthebanksofNileandwhateveraffectsitsflowandvolumewillhaveimplicationsforagriculturalactivitiesinEgypt,particularlyforthepeasants.ThedependenceonRiverNileforvirtuallyeverythingfromagriculturetowaterwaynavigation,mining,andpowergenerationmakesEgyptveryvulnerabletoclimatechange.HeavyrainscauseflashfloodsinEgypt,causingdestructionoflivesandproperties.TheNileDeltaanditsfrontsontheMediterraneanSeaarevulnerabletoclimatechangebecauseofcoastalerosionandsilting.Theriseinsealevelsmakesthecoastalareasandcloseinlandareaspronetobeingsubmergedwhiledesertstormsarefrequentoccurrences(Figures3aand3b).

Figures3aand3b.Climatechange–inducedhazardsinEgypt(1980–2020)

Source:WorldBank(ClimateChangeKnowledgePortal—Egypt;2021a).

8

SouthAfrica

SouthAfricaremainsawater-stressedcountrywithdroughtbecomingaregularoccurrence.Suddenheavyrainfallsalsoresultinflooding,andwithrisingtemperatures;theseeventsarelikelytoexacerbateextremeweatherevents.Hightemperatureshaveledtoincreasedfiresandtheirattendantlossoflife,biodiversity,andinfrastructure.Theseclimate-inducedincidenceshaveledtolossofcrops,hadnegativeeffectsonhumanhealth,andinhibitedminingandelectricitygeneration.However,SouthAfricaenjoyshighresiliencebecauseofitswealthandadaptivecapacityincomparisontootherAfricancountries.

Figures4aand4b.Climatechange-inducedhazardsinSouthAfrica(1980-2020)

Source:WorldBank(ClimateChangeKnowledgePortal-SouthAfrica;2021a).

3.2Agrifoodsystemsandclimatechange

Justasfoodisessentialtotheexistenceoflifeonearth,thesamecouldalsobesaidofotherresourcesfoundintheatmosphereandthelargerecosystem.Foodsystemsareresponsibleforone-thirdofGHGemissions(Crippaetal.,2021),whichunderscorestheimportanceofmakingthemsustainable.Sustainablefoodsystemsinvolveallstagesfromproduction(andallthatfeedsintoit),storage,processing,andpackagingtodistribution,retailing,andconsumption,withafocusonoutcomesthatensuresocial,economic,andenvironmentalsustainabilityfordesirabledevelopment(Lietal.,2022).Althoughfoodsystemsareatthecenteroftheclimatechangeeffects,theypresentvastopportunitiesfortheproductionofsafe,healthy,andenvironmentallysustainablefoodtocombatthemenaceoffoodinsecurity,hunger,andmalnutrition(Fanzoetal.,2022).Ifsustainabilityisconsideredinourdietsbyreplacingcurrentconsumptionpatternswithhealthierchoices,thehealthandclimatechangecostsofourcurrentdietarypatterncouldbereducedsignificantlyby2030(FAOetal.,2021).Figure5showstheshareofagrifoodsystemsintotalGHGinthethreeeconomiesinfocus.ThefindingsrevealedthehighcontributionoftheNigerianagrifoodsystemtoGHGemissionandpossiblyhighlevelsofclimatechangevulnerability.

9

Percentage

Figure5.ShareofagrifoodsystemsintotalGHGemissionacrossNigeria,Egypt,andSouthAfrica

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0

19901994199820022006201020142018

NigeriaSouthAfricaEgypt

Source:FAO(2022);EDGAR-FOOD.

The2022StateofFoodSecurityandNutritionintheWorldReport(FAOetal.,2022)notedthatthenumberofpeopleaffectedbyhungerhasincreasedto828million,and29.3%oftheworld’spopulationisnowfoodinsecure.Climateextremesandeconomicshockswereidentifiedastwoofthemaincausesoffoodinsecurity.Thecurrentagro-foodsystemsnegativelyimpactsoilandwaterresources,whileweatherextremes,naturalhazards,andconflictsituationsemanatingfromclimatechangeweakenthefoodsystem,therebycontributingtoheightenedfoodinsecurityglobally(Wijerathna-YapaandPathirana,2022).

Althoughproductionandsupplychainshavehistoricallybeendisruptedbyclimaticandeconomicshocks,weaknessesinthecurrentglobalfoodsystemhavebeenexposedbyCOVID-19viathemagnitudeofitseffectandtheextentofitsspread(FAOetal.,2021).Thenumberofpeopleunabletoaffordhealthymealsgloballyhasincreasedby112milliontoaround3.1billionasaresultofincreasingconsumerpricesduringthepandemic—andislikelytoincreaseifdirecteconomiclossesareaccountedfor(FAOetal.,2022).Theeffectsofrainfallshortages,conflictsituations,and,particularly,climatechangeincreasedthevulnerabilityofmanyAfricancountriestotheriskofCOVID-19,thoughitwasaglobalevent.TheCOVID-19pandemicandtheassociatedlockdownledtofoodshortagesandahikeinthepriceofstaples,therebyworseningfoodinsecurityinAfrica(AnyanwuandSalami,2021)(seeFigure6).Thehumancostofthepandemicwashugeintermsofmorbidityandmortality.AsatMarch2021,Africaaccountedfor4.1%ofglobaldeaths,withthehighesttollcomingfromSouthAfrica(54.6%).Economicgrowthshrankby2.1%intheheatofthepandemicin2020,withcountriesthatrelyonnaturalresourcessuchaspetroleumoil,metals,andmineralsbeingworsthitbecauseofthegeneralfallincommodityprices(AnyanwuandSalami,2021).However,thereweresomepositivesastheeffectsofthepandemicanditsattendantrestrictivemeasuresbegantomoderate.TheAfricaneconomyregainedtractionin2021,withGDPgrowthof6.9%upfromthe1.6%declineinthepreviousyear,butdifferenceswerestillvisibleatdifferenteconomiclevels(AfDB,2021b).

10

USDbillion,2015prices

Figure6.FoodpriceinflationinAfricaanditssub-regions

%

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

-30

2011

2012

2013

201820192020

2014201520162017

NorthernAfrica

WesternAfrica

SouthernAfrica

Africa

Source:KolomaandSalami(2023).

3.3Africanfoodsystemsandvulnerability

Climatechangeaffectscountriesandcontinentsdifferentlydependingonthelevelofdevelopment.InAfrica,agricultureremainsthemainsourceofemployment,especiallyfortheruralpopulation,andcontributessignificantlytotheGDP(Figures7,8,and9).ThesignificantcontributionofagriculturetototalGDPmeansthatmanypeopleareemployedinthesectorandthatshockssuchasclimatechangewillthereforehavealargenegativeeffectonwelfareandlivelihoodsystems.

Figure7.Value-addedofagriculture,forestry,andfishingbycountriesoffocus

200

175

150

125

100

75

50

25

0

1990199520002005201020152020

NigeriaSouthAfricaEgypt

Source:FAO(2022);FAOSTAT(2023).

11

Percentage

Figure8.Shareofagriculture,forestry,andfishingvalueaddedintotalGDPofcountriesoffocus(US$2015prices)

28

24

20

16

12

8

4

NigeriaSouthAfricaEgypt

0

1990199520002005201020152020

Source:FAO(2022);FAOSTAT(2023).

Figure9.Shareofagriculture,forestry,andfishingemploymentintotalemploymentincountriesoffocus

%

50

40

30

20

10

0

NigeriaSouthAfricaEgypt

20002005201020152020

Source:FAO(2022);FAOSTAT(2023).

Furthermore,agricultureinAfricaismostlyrainfedandthuspronetoclimatechangeeffects.Thepreponderanceofrain-fedagricultureinthecountriesoffocusimpliesthattheagriculturalproductionsystemwilllikelyexperienceshocksofdroughts